Friday Service Plays

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Fast Cash Freddy Wills

FL MARLINS / NY METS
Take NY METS

There is no fooling how well the Mets have hit LHP this year. In fact they lead the league with a .337 average and 7.73 RC/27outs. They will face rookie Sean West who was recalled from AA when the Marlins sent down Nolasco. He pitched 5IP of shutout ball vs. the Rays in his debut. The Rays hitting just .284 vs. LHP left 5 runners in scoring position against West. In my opinion the juice will be out of the arm of West as he'll now make his second MLB start.

On the mound for the Mets is Mike Pelfrey. I absolutely love backing him here. He pitched extremely well against the Red Sox and now has a 2.70 ear in 20IP with a 1.1whip in his last 3 starts. People were all over this guy early on as a 1 year wonder, but I knew he would come back strong in May. He is a sinker ball pitcher. Sinker ball pitchers always struggle early in the year. Now that he has the movement on his pitches he is primed to go on a nice run here. Pelfrey has struggled against the Marlins in the past, but his last 2 starts were good enough to get a win in my opinion 6.2IP 2ER, and 6IP 3ER. If he pitches the same way here today the Mets will win this game with their bullpen.Florida hitting just 3.58 Runs/9 in their last 5 vs. RHP.

Take Mets -165

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VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians completed a four-game sweep over the defending American League champions Tampa Bay. The four-game winning streak is the longest of the season for the Tribe and tonight they will have their ace Cliff Lee taking the mound and Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees. Despite a 1-4 TSR at home, Lee has been very good with a 1.75 ERA in the five starts. His counterpart Pettitte has had trouble over the years with the Indians as he has a 6-11 TSR with nearly a 5.00 ERA since 1997. Cleveland is 18-7 SU after winning three or more games in a row.

Play on: Cleveland

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Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: San Diego/Colorado under 9 1/2

============================================

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
270 - 174  run  60 % 
15 wins - 4 losses winning run (over 75%)
FRI pick: Cleveland Indians

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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION

Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
 
(522) Denver Nuggets -5.5

The Nuggets will be fighting for their lives as they try to
force a seventh game on Sunday and I fully expect that
to happen. Denver will respond with a huge game and
cover this number. Lay the points with the Nuggets.

2009 Free Selections Record  80-65  (55.2%)


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Re: Friday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Friday take the price back with the Mariners.

Obviously Mike Scioscia's Angels are much better overall than the visitors from Seattle but at this takeback and the way John Lackey and the Angels have been performing, or not performing, backing this dog is worth the price of admission.

Both Jason Vargas and Lackey missed the beginning of the season and shockingly enough it's been the lefty who has been much better as the ERA in the 1's shows. I'm not an idiot and do understand that Lackey is a total All-Star, despite the ERA over six right now, with great stuff but he has not really shown it since returning and even with Vlad Guerrero back the Halos were once again offensivelt challenged in that last losing series against the White Series.

Ozzie Guillen's squad took the first two games as the Anaheim bats were silenced and in the third game after falling behind 1-0 the Halos scored three runs in the sixth inning in the 3-1 victory and salvage one game in the set. Anaheim is never a juggernaut with the lumber and right now are once again showing why.

Vargas is a semi journeyman but he was alright with Florida a few seasons back and does have an upside as we have been seeing. The Southpaw has got to be feeling pretty good about himself and he may not have a great offense supporting him but Ichiro, Beltre, Branyan and the M's do have enough to scrape a few across and pull this thing out.

More times than not it's a no-brainer that the home Angels win this game as they are the definite superior squad. But to boast the hotter pitcher up against a slumping lineup makes me fine with this pup at this price.

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Nick Parsons

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays +110

On Friday, the quickly fading Jays will try to avoid their 10th consecutive loss as they face first-place Boston and Wakefield at Rogers Centre in the start of a three-game set. The Blue Jays (27-23) hope a return home will help their fortunes after a dismal 0-9 road trip. They're 16-6 in Toronto this season, including a four-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox from May 15-18. The bats finally woke up in support of ace Roy Halladay on Wednesday, but the bullpen blew a five-run lead in the eighth inning and a two-run edge in the 11th en route to a 12-10 defeat; look for Toronto to play well in front of the hometown crowd as I believe the Jay's offer us good value today. Toronto moves to 6-0 (+6.2 units) at home when the total is 10 to 10 1/2!

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Alex Smart

St. Louis Cardinals +110

The Cardinals' enter this road tilt against the San Francisco Giants playing some very good baseball winning 7 of their L/9 overall. The pitching rotation is to thank for their positive performances ,as is evident by a combined 0.88 ERA during that above mentioned span. At the same time the offense has been extremely inconsistent offense scoring an average of just 3.4 runs via a .228 BA. With the pitching in top form , and the addition of formerly injured key sluggers Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick to the batting order the Cardinals look like a dangerous opponent for any and all comers as underdogs, even against a hurler like Matt Cain who is 0-1 with a 9.58 ERA in two career starts against the Cardinals. ( It must be noted that Cains team is 11-27 when he starts against a above .500 team over the last few seasons for a bankroll depleting .29% conversion rate on the moneyline). Play on the Cardinals in the underdog role ( J. Peneiro 3.27 ERA L/3 starts)

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Vernon Croy

Take the Philadelphia Phillies -166

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and it would be a premium play for me but it is over my personal limit of -150. The Phillies are a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game and they are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games after a loss. The Phillies are 10-2 in their last 12 home games against a lefty starter and they are a perfect 4-0 in J.A. Happ's (2-0, 2.60 ERA) last 4 starts when the posted total is 9.0 to 10.5. The Washington Nationals (13-33, 6-17 Road) are just 2-11 in their last 13 road games as a dog of +151 to +200 and they are also just 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Philadelphia. The Nationals are just 5-22 in their last 27 games against a division opponent and they are just 9-24 in their last 33 games when playing with a day off. The Nationals are hitting just .233 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging just 3.3 rpg and they will struggle against Happ who allowed just 4 hits in his only start this season against the Yankees in a hitters park. Take the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Frank Jordan

Seattle Mariners vs. LAA Angels    
Play: LAA Angels   

John Lackey is 1-0 with a 6 era, but that era is inflated when he hit a batter after two pitches in his first start back and was thrown out of the game that runner came around to score. He pitched much better since then with two good starts. In this one look for Lackey to get a win in his first home start of the year over the lowly Mariners. Play LA Angels

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Doc's Sports

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals     
Play: Kansas City Royals

Brian Bannister has mystified hitters since being recalled from Triple-A. The Royals have won six of seven games he's started this season. Among the starters, only Zach Greinke has a better record and ERA. Don’t forget to sign-up for Doc’s Sports AL Game of the Month, which will go on Saturday. Let 38 years of handicapping experience work for you.

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Rocketman

Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets     
Play: Florida Marlins     

Florida is 15-8 against division opponents this year. Florida is 3-1 this year as a road underdog of +150 to +175. NY Mets are 23-28 last 3 years as a home favorite of -150 to -175. NY Mets are 40-46 last 3 years at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Florida has won 3 of their last 4 overall. Florida bullpen has a very good 2.07 ERA on the road this year. Sean West has a 3.60 ERA overall this year. Pelfrey is 1-5 with a 6.12 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!

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Lenny Del Genio

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

We correctly projected that the Lakers would find their shooting touch in Game 5 and they shot 48.5% from the floor in that win and cover. Meanwhile, we also predicted that the Nuggets would continue their shooting slide and they made only 38.5% of their attempts. It was also the third straight game where they made less than 30% of their three-point attempts and sixth in eight games vs. the Lakers this season. Lakers are an outstanding bet as an underdog, going 24-11 ATS when getting the points over the last two seasons. Turn out the lights, the partys over Denver. Take LA Lakers.

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Wunderdog

Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays    
Pick: Tampa Bay -140

The Twins are one game shy of .500 for the season, but that doesn't speak of the problems they have had on the road. The Twins come to Tampa with the fewest road wins in baseball at five, while dropping 14. They are just 1-9 over their last 10 games on the road, and in the nine losses have been outscored 27-52. They will face the Rays’ ace, James Shields who has been lights out at home over his career. The last three seasons have seen Shields produce an 18-6 mark at home, with his worst season being an ERA of 3.53, but last year 2.59, and this season-to-date 2.89. He squares-off against Scott Baker who has been awful on the road, posting an 0-2 mark and 9.31 ERA. The Twins’ struggles against the American League East have been ongoing, where they enter this one just 16-35 in their last 51 games. The Rays are 22-7 in Shield's last 29 home starts, and they have a big edge in this one. I’ll take the Rays on the moneyline here.

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Dave Price

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +106

Cincy has been strong on the road this season and is riding a 4-game win streak, but I like the Brew Crew to get back in the win column at home tonight. The Reds own a 3-2 lead in the season series and the Brewers have dropped 5 of their last 6 to fall out of first place. They'll be very hungry to start getting things turned around here. Milwaukee is a sensational 15-5 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season and Plays Against Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - NL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.350) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), in May games are 109-47 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Beer Makers in this bounce back spot.

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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals +110

The Cards have won 7 of 9 and I like them to keep right on rolling on the road tonight. There's no question that the Giants' Cain is off to a sensational start, but I don't think he'll get the run support he needs tonight as his team is scoring only 3.9 runs per game against righty starters this season. Plus, Cain is 0-2 against the money line when starting against St. Louis with an ERA of 9.57 and a WHIP of 1.644 in his career. Pineiro has been solid of late with an ERA of 3.27 over his last 3 starts and the Cardinals are 5-1 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 6-17 in Cain's last 23 starts during game 1 of a series and 9-25 in their last 34 vs. the National League Central. Take the Cards tonight.

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MTi Sports

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

The Reds are 0-5 since April 24, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series and the Brewers are 8-0 as a favorite in the first game of the series. Consider Milwaukee.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Randle the Handle

Boston –1½ +1.49 over TORONTO

The Jays sudden skid needs no introduction, as they’re at nine losses and counting and things can’t get much worse. Yeah, they’re at home but the trouble started when they went into Boston and faced Tim Wakefield. Prior to that trip to Boston they were seeing beach balls but since facing Wakefield they’ve been seeing BB’s and aside from a 10-run outburst in their last game they had scored just 16 combined runs in eight games. What makes this so interesting is that the media has been drilling it into their minds that facing the knuckleballer completely messed up their timing. Well, they finally got their “timing” back with 10 runs on Wednesday and they’ll face the knuckleballer again. If nothing else, it’s a big psychological edge for Wakefield and a big psychological disadvantage for the Jays hitters to overcome. The Jays may break out of its funk at home but winning is so much tougher when you’re losing and this is not the best time for the Jays to run into Wakefield and the juggernaut Red Sox. Play: Boston –1½ +1.49 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +1.58 over NY METS (1st 5 innings)

Big prices are forthcoming on the Marlins all weekend long and one has to believe the Mets are a little vulnerable right now without Reyes, Beltran and Ryan Church. Reyes has always been the catalyst of this offense and the Mets record when he’s not in the line-up is not impressive at all. With those three out, David Wright is not getting as many good pitches to hit and is in the midst of a 4-19 funk. Sean West makes just his second start of the year and this guy has an outstanding arm to go along with some nasty stuff. He’s a big lefty (6’5) and features a 94-mph fastball, a circle change and a hard slider and he can throw them all for strikes. He did walk four in his major-league debut but that can be attributed to nerves. Still, he allowed just two earned runs to the Rays and struck out five. The kid can pitch and has a chance to stay at this level for years and years. Mike Pelfrey beat the Marlins on July 8, 2006, but has since gone 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA against them. Pelfrey failed to pitch past the fifth inning three times in five starts versus Florida last season, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. Win, lose or draw, the Marlins have to be considered good value and because West will likely only go five or six innings the play is the Marlins in the first five. Play: Florida +1.58 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta -½ +1.05 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings)

This one is all about playing against Jon Garland, a guy who looks like he’s throwing batter practice out there. Garland has about the least intimidating stuff in the majors and Chase Field does not help his cause. This is a hitter’s park where the gaps are huge and the balls carry. Garland gives up a ton of hits, he’s not a strikeout pitcher and he issues too many walks, all big factors to his current 6.99 ERA at home in five starts. In fact, over 28 frames at home he’s allowed 38 hits and five bombs, while striking out just nine and walking 13. The opposition has hit .328 off him at Chase Field and his chances of success against the Braves, or anyone else for that matter are slim at best. The Braves will very likely put up some runs here early and that’s all there is to it. Oh, Jair Jurrjens is a quality pitcher, making this the biggest pitching mismatch on the board. See ya at the cashier’s booth about 11:00 PM. Play: Atlanta in the first five innings -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles –1.02 over CHICAGO

The Cubbies and Ted Lilly favored over Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers makes no sense whatsoever. For one, L.A. is 11-3 against southpaws, they’re 34-15 overall, they’ve won five in a row on the road including yesterday’s opener and they’ve now won eight of its past nine away from Chavez Ravine. It gets better. Billingsley is a monster, who has been lights out all year. In fact, the team is 8-2 when he starts and he comes in here with a 1.63 road ERA. Meanwhile, the Cubs have dropped nine of 11 and they’ve scored two runs or less in seven of its last 10 games. Lilly can be effective for sure, as his 1.29 home ERA will attest to. However, he’s 1-2 over his last three starts with a 5.19 ERA and in no way in a million years does he have an edge over Billingsley. Call me crazy but this is a must bet at this price, as both Billingsley and the Dodgers are the straight goods while the Cubbies can’t get out of its own way right now. Play: Los Angeles –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

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INDIANCOWBOY

Take Toronto Bluejays -103 over the Boston Redsox

For today's comp selection to hopefully make it 3 in a row, take the Bluejays over the Redsox. Wakefield gave up 1 run in 8 innings in his last start vs. the Jays which was a contest that he was on a bounce-back against Anaheim for when he had given up 7 runs. The Jays face Wake again today and they are likely to get to him early as usually when a pitcher has great success against a team his first go around, he struggles in his next effort on the road against them. Janssen has finally returned to the Jays lineup and he was one of the stars that the team is looking to finally show his potential. He was pitcihng great in the majors a couple years ago but injuries sidelined him. He finally made his much awaited start back in the league and pitched extremely well against the Braves but the Jays still lost. Janssen still went 6 innings and gave up 8 hits and 3 runs. He looked a bit shaky at times, but that is expected in his first start back. Toronto looks to finally bounce-back at home after getting roughed up by Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore on the road and I expect them to do better in the beginning of their home stand today.

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LARRY NESS

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Boston Red Sox

The Blue Jays began a nine-game road trip back on May 19 with a 27-14 record, which had them in first place in the AL East. The trip opened in Fenway Park and the Blue Jays lost 2-1. Nothing changed the rest of the trip, as the Blue Jays finally return home (the Red Sox are their opponents, again), having lost nine in a row and with a 27-23 mark. They are now in third-place, 1 1/2 games behind the Yanks and two game back of the Red Sox. Boston is much tougher in Fenway (17-6) than it is on the road (11-14) but the Red Sox cannot be unhappy with splitting a four-game series in the Metrodome this week, against the Twins. They also would like nothing more than continue Toronto's slide and the good news is, they'll miss Roy Halladay over the weekend. Tim Wakefield gets the start and he was the starter of the May 19th game, which began all of Toronto's recent woes. He allowed five hits in eight innings of Boston's 2-1 win and on the year is 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA in nine starts (team is 7-2). Wakefield opened the 2009 season with a 1.86 ERA in his first four starts and while he hasn't been able to keep that pace up, it's hard to argue with him winning four of his last five starts. It sure doesn't hurt the vet that he's fourth in the majors in run support, getting 8.28 runs per nine innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Casey Janssen, who will be making just his second major league appearance since 2007. Janssen went 6-10 with a 5.07 ERA in 19 appearances (17 starts) for the Jays in 2006 (team was 7-10 in his starts). He was then 2-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 70 appearances (no starts) in 2007, while serving as the team's setup man. However, he missed all of last season while recovering from shoulder surgery (torn labrum). He compiled an 0.76 ERA in five minor league starts between Class A and Double-A before pitching six innings against the Braves last Saturday in his first outing of the season after being removed from the DL. He pitched well enough to keep the Jays in the game but Toronto couldn't score enough. Janssen allowed three ERs on eight hits and one walk in six innings but he also didn't strike anyone out. Who wants any part of the Jays right now, until they win? Take Boston.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Mike Rose

Denver Nuggets -5.5

The Nuggets couldnt quite come through in the clutch in Game 5 and took another bad loss in this series. Denver has shown that they could be the better team here, but have continuously turned the ball over in late game situations. Nuggets G Chauncey Billups had his worst outing of this series contributing just 12 points and five assists in 39 minutes. Before Game 5, Billups had been scoring 21.7 PPG in this series and needs to get at least that number for Denver to have a chance tonight. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their L/9 games when playing as the favorite. Denver is an impressive 13-2 ATS in the 2009 NBA Playoffs and 21-6 ATS in their L/27 games overall.

The Lakers managed to dominate the fourth quarter 27-18 in Game 5 and earn their third win of this series to put them one game from the NBA Finals. In their three wins the Lakers have won the fourth by a combined score of 90-63, erasing late game deficits in each game. LA G Kobe Bryant has shown his best stuff in this series averaging 33.8 PPG and making big shots in crunch time to lead his team to victories. While Bryant scored just 22 points in Game 5 he made up for it by dishing out a personal series high eight assists. The Lakers are 2-3 ATS in this series and 8-9 ATS in the 2009 NBA Playoffs.

This is the last chance for Billups, Carmelo Anthony, and the Nuggets; look for them to dig down deep and pull out another ATS victory in this contest. Melo had 31 points in the loss on Wednesday and will no doubt put up another big number to help his team win tonight. The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS on their home floor in the NBA Playoffs and will force a classic Game 7 with the Lakers.

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Rob Homyak

L.A. Lakers at Denver Nuggets
5 Units on UNDER

Play UNDER ORLANDO on the total in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game The record is 15 Overs and 30 Unders this season (+13.50 units)

Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games 66-44 over the last 5 seasons.  (60.0% | 17.6 units)

The under has hit in 4 of 5 games in this series and is 10-2 in the last 12, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver. 8 of their last 9 playoff games have gone UNDER, and they have played 10 of their last 12 games against the Denver Nuggets UNDER the posted total. The under is 5-1 in Denver?s last six against Pacific Division teams.

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