Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Chris Jordan

N.Y. Mets at BOSTON -180 

Love the boys from Beantown in this one, as they'll rebound from last night's loss to the Mets to get it done here.

Keep in mind, prior to last night's win in Fenway Park, New York had dropped four straight games while scoring a total of six runs in the process. And since the Mets are nearing the end of a 10-game road trip, I suspect they'll be a bit winded today for this one.

New York starter Mike Pelfrey has a 4.96 ERA in three road starts this season, so I don't expect him to be around that long tonight.

I'd rather side with Josh Beckett, who is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts, all Red Sox wins.

With Beckett toeing the slab, the BoSox are on streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on Saturday and 10-3 in interleague action. Also, Boston has won all four of Becket’s home starts this year.

1♦ BOSTON RED SOX

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Milwaukee at MINNESOTA -110 

I can understand some bettors being hesistant to back the Twins with Anthony Swarzak taking the hill in the place of the injured Glen Perkins, but that should not deter you in this match up and here's why:

First off, while Braden Looper was solid in his last start, allowing 1 earned over 6 innings for the win in St. Louis, let's not get carried away! He's still posting an ugly 6.04 ERA for the month of May, and his road start prior to St. Louis was a disaster in Cincinnati, allowing 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings May 7th! Sorry Brewers-backers, but I'm not convinced, especially with the Twins swinging the bats extremely well of late.

Speaking of the Twins hot-hitting, they built off their ridiculous 20-1 win over the White Sox, by pounding the Brewers 11-3 last night! Led by Michael Cuddyer, the Twins have ammassed 32 hits over their last 2 games, and with numbers like those, backing the young Swarzak is suddenly a hell of a lot easier!

Finally, not only are the Brewers just 1-7 in their L8 interleague road games, but they're also just 2-6 in their L8 meetings with Minnesota. Twins are already a tough match up at the Metrodome (15-9 there on season), but since they've caught fire at the plate, beating them is a lot easier said than done! In the end, Looper becomes the Twins next victim, as they continue their hot-hitting ways Saturday!

Take Minnesota behind Swarzak over Milwaukee and Looper in this MLB match up.

2♦ MINNESOTA

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Karl Garrett

Coloardo +125 at DETROIT

Winner on the Tigers for free last night from the G-Man, now 3-1 the last 4 days with my comp plays!

Detroit has been playing some tip-top ball of late, winners of 7 straight, but the pitching mathcup tonight is most decidedly in the favor of the visiting Rockies.

Colorado's Jason Marquis has been around the block a time or two, and comes in Saturday's assignment fresh off 8 dominant innings in a win at Atlanta. Marquis allowed just 1 earned run in that effort, and his starts on the road this year have gone quite well considering Colorado's sub-par season road record.

Marquis is 3-1 on the highway this season with a slim 2.79 ERA. Look for him to be spot-on once again in this game.

Armando Galarraga has really hit the skids, as he has allowed 16 runs to score in just 13 innings of work over his last 3 starts for an 0-2 mark.

Look for the Rockies to take out some of their recent road frustrations on Galarraga, and the Tigers tonight.

3♦ COLORADO

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Sports Gambling Hotline

LA Lakers at DENVER

We finally dropped a free play, but are still a blistering 7-1 with our free plays the last 8 days!

We have been using the UNDER as our cash-cow thus far in this Lakers-Nuggets series, and until we actually see these teams combine to play an OVER, we will stick to our guns, and play another game to land UNDER the posted total.

Thus far the first 2 games in this series have landed BELOW the posted price, which makes it 8 of the last 9 series meetings landing UNDER the posted price.

Los Angeles is on a 27-11 UNDER run their last 38 games overall, while the usually high-scoring Nuggets have now played UNDER the total in 6 of their last 10 postseason contests.

Sure, Thursday's game came quite close to eclipsing the total, but in the end the UNDER held out by just a smidge.

More of the same on Saturday night.

Play on the LOW.

3♦ UNDER

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

VEGAS EXPERTS

LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets

First two games of this series as well as six of the last seven head to head battles between the teams here in Denver have gone Under the total, but we look for a reversal of fortunes tonight. Road teams that are off a loss by 3pts or less and have scored 100+ points in four straight games and the total is 200 or higher are 44-13 to the Over since 1996. Ironically enough, Denver is 11-1 Over off a road win by three points or less.

Play on: Over

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LT Profits

Kansas City Royals +150

The Kansas City Royals have slumped after a very hot start, currently sitting at 21-21 overall, but we feel they offer nice value at this price vs. the St. Louis Cardinals today.

This is because Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse is finally returning to his mediocre form after overachieving his first time through the National League. Lohse has just one Quality Start in his last six starts, and he has been absolutely brutal in his last three outings, posting a 10.67 ERA with a horrendous 1.95 WHIP in 14.1 innings, averaging less than five innings per start.

Now granted, Royals starter Luke Hochevar is not much either, but he is facing a St. Louis lineup that is batting a woeful .203 overall while averaging just 2.70 runs per game over the last 10 games, and the fact that the Cardinals have never faced him before certainly helps also. Comparatively, Kansas City is averaging 4.10 runs in that same 10-game span, and he has the support of a Royals bullpen that ranks seventh in the Major Leagues with a collective 3.64 ERA.

So basically, the Royals have the better bullpen and the better offense right now, and the poor current form of Lohse makes the starters practically a wash. Thus, we will take the value with Kansas City here.

Pick: Royals +150

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -105

The Brewers have lost 2 of 3 since winning 7 in a row, but they definitely have the edge tonight with Minnesota fresh meat Anthony Swarzak making his MLB debut. The Brewers are 12-4 in their last 16 road games, 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss, and 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Bet the Brew Crew.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Scott Delaney

Nice little 4-0 spurt with the comp plays and tonight we're going to play the New York Yankees against the defending champs.

The Phils might have wnet homer happy on the Bombers last night, but it could be the other way around, as young southpaw J.A. Happ is making his first start of the season. It was supposed to take place last week, his starting debut, but he was need the night prior in extra-inning relief.

Today he gets the Bombers.

New York is now 9-1 in his last 10 games, and it'll be able to get back to its winning ways with Andy Pettitte taking the mound, as New York is 7-2 in Pettitte’s last nine starts overall. He's 2-0 at home on the year, and has a 3.38 ERA in six career regular-season starts against the Phillies, with New York going 4-2 (2-0 at home) in those outings.

PLAY: N.Y. YANKEES

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

Part of my 2-0 paid sweep last night I like the Tigers once again today as they remain the hottest team in the league. You see going for the Tigers is the fact they have now won their last seven games and 15 of 20 at home this season. Numbers that drowned out the fact that Detroit is going with Galarraga who has struggled most of the year.  Meanwhile, for the Rockies losers of 7 of their last 10 games they turn to Marquis who over his last three starts has struggled going 1-2 with an ERA of over 7 runs per game.  Flat out, even with the Rockies have a bit of an edge on the mound it won’t be good enough to overcome the fact that Detroit is just to good right now and at home.  With a that take the Tigers as they make it eight straight wins.

PICK: Detroit Tigers

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LEE KOSTROSKI

Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Kansas City Royals

Kyle Lohse has been very streaky throughout his career and he is currently on a very poor run of results. In his last three outings Lohse has allowed 17 runs in just over 14 innings and the Cardinals have taken three consecutive losses with him on the mound. His overall numbers look respectable and the Cardinals will still be given solid favoritism at home but it is very tough to trust Lohse given the way he has pitched in recent games. The Cardinals bullpen has very average numbers on the season and has been prone to allowing home runs as well and there will not be a reliable option to turn to if Lohse falters again.

Luke Hochevar had dominant minor league numbers before getting the call this season but his first start back in the big leagues was a disaster. He pitched well in his most recent start despite not lasting deep into the game and Hochevar has plenty of experience making 22 starts for the Royals last season. His numbers look atrocious in a very small sample but Hochevar is capable of providing a solid start and he is supported by one of the top statistical bullpens in the American League.

The Royals had great success in interleague play last season and Kansas City entered this series having won seven of the last ten meetings in this series at Busch Stadium. Despite much bigger names in the lineup for the Cardinals, the Royals have a higher team batting average and OPS. St. Louis is hitting just .210 as a team in the past ten games and the Cardinals have scored just 20 runs over the past nine games entering this series. St. Louis swept Chicago in the last series but hit just .205 in the three games, catching breaks against a cold Cubs lineup. St. Louis owns the better overall record but the Royals have been the superior team in recent weeks and the National League has not held up well in recent years of interleague play.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Vernon Croy

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals     
Play: Washington Nationals     

This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and we are getting solid value here with the Nationals tonight. The Orioles are just 0-6 in Koji Ueharas (2-3, 4.34 ERA) last 6 starts and although I had the Orioles last night as my MLB Bookie Buster I look for the Nationals to bounce back Saturday night. The Orioles are just 3-11 in their last 14 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game and the Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games when they score 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles are just 6-22 in their last 28 games in game 2 of a series and they are just 6-23 in their last 29 interleague road games against a left starter. The Nationals are now 33-11 in their last 44 interleague home games against a team with a losing record and the Orioles are just 4-12 in their last 16 games after a win this season. Grab the value with the Washington Nationals as my MLB Free Play for Saturday night.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

ALEX SMART

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona DBacks starting pitcher Dan Haren (3-4, 2.09 ERA) went 43-34 with a 3.64 ERA in 102 starts with Oakland from 2005-07 and will be very prepared for a top notch performance in his return to his old diggs, against his former team that he has had success in the past in his only start against them, garnering a stingy 1.29 ERA, while allowing four hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings in a 11-1 victory. In Harens last official start, on May 12, he allowed just three runs on six hits while striking out five , allowing no walks in seven innings against the Reds for his eighth straight quality start this season.This season, Haren owns the fifth-best ERA in baseball and leads Arizona with 56 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, his right handed pitching opponent, Edgar Gonzalez, is coming up from the minors after pitching at Triple-A Sacramento. The native of Monterrey, Mexico was average at best in his minor league outings, postings a 3-2 with a 5.22 ERA in seven starts at Sacramento. Gonzalez started last season in Arizona's starting rotation but was bumoed to the bullpen after six starts recording a 1-3 record along with a 6.00 ERA in 17 games.He has proven himself a sub par pitcher as is evident by a 14-21 mark with a 5.97 ERA in 80 Major League games, including 35 starts. With the pitching matchup very much favoring the DBacks in what many believe to be a pitchers park the DBacks are the right side in this spot on the moneyline. Final notes & Key Trends: The A's are 12-30 against a starting pitcher that averages 5 or more strikes per start dating back to last season. Diamondbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League West. Athletics are 6-22 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Athletics are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter . Diamondbacks are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Oakland. Road team is 8-0 in umpire Gale Scotts last 8 interleague games behind home plate. ........Play on the Arizona DBacks ( 0.5% of bankroll)

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Under

Yesterday's 1-0 final was a sign of things to come here. The Braves Lowe has the stuff to be tough on a righty-dominated lineup and that's exactly what the Blue Jays possess. As for Toronto's Janssen, he's got great stuff and has been anxiously awaiting this opportunity. Atlanta has enjoyed some offensive explosions of late but they've truly been "all or nothing" in terms of run production. They've been held to 1 run or 0 runs in four of their last six games! As for the Blue Jays, they've averaged just 1.6 runs per game in their last five games. Yes, another "yawner" (unless you enjoy pitching) is likely to be on tap tonight. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Atlanta on Saturday

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona starter Dan Haren has a better than 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Diamondbacks are 11-5 in the last 16 starts made by Haren if he is off a quality start in his last outing. The D'Backs are 5-1 their last 6 road games. Oakland is 11-27 their last 38 games after allowing two or less runs in their last game and they are 3-8 their last 11 Interleague games as underdogs. The A's are 6-22 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 0-5 at home vs. the Diamondbacks. PLAY ON ARIZONA w/Haren

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros    
Play: Houston Astros

The Texas Rangers may be leading the American League West, but they have gotten there by taking advantage of their hitter-friendly home park, as they are just 10-11 on the road for the season. Scott Feldman has taken over for Vicente Padilla - out with an injury. Feldman has a 5.79 ERA in one start vs. the Astros and his innings will be limited, exposing the Rangers’ pen. Brian Moehler got off to a horrific start, but has found a groove pitching to a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts, and he has had success against the Rangers at 6-4 over his career. The Rangers are a different team on the road where they score more than two runs fewer than they do at home, so I like the Astros in this one.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

LOS (-130) vs ANA

The Dodgers, who wasted a solid outing from Clayton Kershaw, will now send Randy Wolf (2-1, 2.72) to the mound. The veteran left-hander is 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last five starts. In his last outing, Wolf gave up two runs and six hits in a season-high 7 2-3 innings during the Dodgers' 3-2, 11-inning win over the New York Mets on Monday night. Look for the DODGERS to improve to 18-4 (+12.4 units) when playing in front of the hometown crowd!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Mr. A

Detroit Tigers -145

Boston Red Sox -175

Denver Nuggets -3½

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

GINA

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Go with Denver tonight at Mile High City. The Nuggets were able to make it difficult for the Lakers in Los Angeles. I predict it will be worse for them in Denver. The Nuggets have won 16 straight at the Pepsi Center and is 6-0 both straight-up and against the spread in the playoffs at home. The Lakers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Denver Nuggets -3½


Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers

Go with the roaring Tigers tonight at home. Detroit has won their last seven games and the last seven at Comerica Park. The Tigers will send Armando Galarraga to the hill. The right-hander has struggle as of late, 0-3 with a 10.90 ERA in his last four starts, but is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 interleague starts. Meanwhile, Colorado has lost five of their last seven games overall and the last four in Detroit. Additionally, they have dropped their last 7 interleague games. The Rockies will counter with Jason Marquis. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three starts.

Detroit Tigers -145

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Johnny Guild

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets have been impressive at home during the regular season and playoffs, not to mention very lucrative. Denver is 12-0 ATS at home in the playoffs, winning by double digits. If they continue to play the Lakers as they did in the first two games, it will be a daunting task for the Lakers.

Denver Nuggets -3.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

BEN BURNS

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees
PICK: Under 11.5

The majority of the betting public is backing the 'over' in this afternoon's Phillies/Yankees clash. In my opinion, this has created some reasonably solid line value with the 'under.'

Yesterday's game snuck below the total with a score of 7-3. The perception is that these teams couldn't possibly be "held down" twice in a row, not in new hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. A look at the Yankees' recent games would suggest otherwise. Looking at New York's last 12 games and we find that 10 of them finished with 11 runs or less, nine of them finishing with 10 or less. As for the Phillies, they've now seen three of their last four fall below the total.

Happ goes for the champs and he's had some success out of the bullpen, recording a stellar 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Note that Happ did make several (five) starts for the Phillies last summer. He allowed two earned runs or less in each of the last four of them and all four of those games stayed below the total. All five of his starts finished with 11 runs or fewer.

Pettitte goes for New York and he's still more than capable. He wasn't all that sharp last time out but still only allowed four runs through six complete innings. He was much better in his most recent road start, allowing just two runs (one earned) and five hits through six complete innings at Toronto.

While he hasn't seen them for a few years, Pettitte has been dominant the last few times that he faced the Phillies. Looking at his last three starts against Philadelphia and we find that the Yankees' southpaw has allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings. All three games finished with eight runs or less with the 'under' going 2-0-1. Note that Rollins, Ibanez, Utley and Howard are hitting a combined .233 (10 for 43) with just one home run and nine strikeouts against Pettitte. Consider going 'under' the high total.

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