Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Alex Smart

Anaheim Ducks +120

Anaheim may have the #8 seed tag, but the Ducks came in to the playoffs as one of the hottest teams having won nine of the last dozen regular season games. Off that momentum, Anaheim disposed of the President Trophey winners San Jose and now head back to Disney having wrestled the advantage away from MoTowns Wings. The Ducks deserved to at least split the series in Detroit and given just a little fortune, could easily have grabbed the brace.

While Anaheim were battling with San Jose, Detroit were sitting at home having swept Columbus and all that was coming out of the motor city was how much they wanted the Ducks to win because that gave the Wings home ice advantage throughout the playoffs. Talk about 'counting one's chickens before they hatch'. Detroit may not have given the Ducks the respect they deserved and were looking well to far ahead. Well they better take notice now.

The last time the Wings were tied 1-1 in a postseason series, they went on to lose - their opponent on that occassion were these Ducks.

Anaheim are 12-4 at home in May and 11-4-1 at home against Detroit.

Play on the Ducks

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LT Profits

Colorado Rockies -110

Aaron Cook of the Colorado Rockies has recovered from a slow start, and he should keep things going tonight vs. a San Diego Padres team that he has dominated in the past.

In fact, Cook just faced the Padres last Wednesday, allowing three runs and only five hits in seven innings in the altitude of Colorado, and he should appreciate the spacious dimensions of this stadium even more. Now, we would normally look for the opposite result of the previous start when a pitcher makes two starts vs. the same team this close together, but this is simply a case of Cook having the Padres number.

Prior to giving up three runs on Wednesday, Cook has made nine previous starts vs. San Diego, and he allowed two runs or less in eight of them! He has made four starts at Petco Park, and he has allowed only six runs and 23 hits in 29 innings here (1.86 ERA). That last start by Cook also marked his second straight Quality Start after a couple of rough outings, indicating that the Rockies ace is ready to return to his very good form of last season.

The Padres counter with young Joshua Geer, and while Geer has yet to walk a batter in 17 innings this season, he is not exactly fooling the batters either with a 5.29 ERA. Yes, he has nice command for a youngster, but his numbers indicate that he would be better served nibbling at corners once in a while, as his good control has been offset by the fact that he is throwing too many pitches over the heart of the plate, and he does not have the stuff to get away with it.

When you add in the fact that the Padres are hitting just .201 as a team over the last 10 games while the Rockies are hitting .282 in that same span, the Rockies become an easy choice at this cheap price with their ace on the bump.

Pick: Rockies -110

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Chris Jordan

San Francisco -110 at CHICAGO

Tim Lincecum has come along nicely, after starting the year a little suspect, and has now struck out 33 batters over 23 innings, while allowing a mere four runs and 16 hits in his last thee starts. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA on the season and comes in with a decent showing against the Cubbies. Lincecum is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA in four career outings – all starts – against Chicago, including a perfect 1-0 mark and 1.26 ERA in two starts at Wrigley Field, where he’s fanned 17 and allowed just eight hits in 14-1/3 frames.

I know the Giants’ offense has been lethargic, but this is the type of group that performs when it has a hurler that pitches well enough to keep his team in the game. That’ll be the case in this matinee, especially since the Cubbies have lost all seven games Sean Marshall has started since he won July 6 of last season. He’s 1-2 with a 7.79 ERA in four career games - three starts - against the Giants, so let’s look for an easy win for Frisco here.

1♦ GIANTS

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Vegas Experts

Boston at NY Yankees

Can't believe we're getting this kind of line on the Dodgers, who are 10-0 at home and will be facing an Arizona club that is hitting under .200 as a team both on the road and against lefties. The Dodgers are averaging nearly seven runs per game here at Chavez Ravine and are collectively hitting .282 vs. southpaws. Arizona does not do well against winning teams, posting a 28-40 mark in that role the last two season. Look for the Dodgers to win their fifth straight.

Play on: Boston

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Mike Anthony

LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics    
Play: Oakland Athletics   

I'm laying the price with OAKLAND. The Angels have started to play better recently. However, they're still dealing with numerous injuries and this is a tough spot for them.The A's are 4-1 in Dallas Braden's last five home starts and I look for them to improve on those stats with another victory this evening.Oakland gets back on track Tuesday night!!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on LA Dodgers -130

LA has now won 11 straight home games to start the season to improve to 18-6 against the NL West on the year. That first home loss will likely be coming soon, but I don't see it happening tonight against the D-backs' Max Scherzer, who is winless on the year and just 1-10 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. I feel good about Weaver on the hill for LA as he is 26-9 against the money line in his last 35 games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles and I look for this trend to continue tonight. Bet LA.

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Jrtips

ARIZONA vs. LA DODGERS

The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the verge of matching a major league record 12 win in a row at home and tie the longest undefeated home start in nearly 100 years when they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight who are losers of six straight at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles (19-8) beat Arizona 7-2 on Monday night, and has outscored opponents 75-28 at Dodger Stadium, where they are batting .332 with 15 homers. The Dodgers have a 2.52 ERA at home and have held opponents to a .190 batting average there and Arizona club that's dropped 10 of 12 against Los Angeles and six in a row at Dodger Stadium. The Diamondbacks (11-15) have totaled five runs and 15 hits in their last three games versus the Dodgers which were all losses. Ramirez hit his 533rd home run Monday and is batting .360 with a .500 on-base percentage. For the Dodgers, Jeff Weaver will make his first start since the end of the 2007 season after he pitched four scoreless innings of relief against San Diego in his season debut last Thursday. Weaver is 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in eight starts against Arizona goes against Arizona starter Max Scherzer (0-2, 3.48) who goes for his first career win. The right-hander, who made his major league debut last April, is 0-6 with a 3.17 ERA in 20 career games and 11 starts. He struck out a season-high seven in six shutout innings against Milwaukee on Thursday, but didn't get much help from Arizona's lineup or bullpen in the 4-1 loss. Scherzer is 0-0 and a 3.38 ERA in three games versus the Dodgers and facing this hot LA team at Dodger Staduim is not a good place right now to try to get his first MLB win, although Weaver will struggle in his first start since 2007.

TAKE ARIZONA/ LA DODGERS OVER 9

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Rocketman

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: Atlanta Braves   

NY Mets are 1-5 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Atlanta bullpen has a 3.60 ERA at home this year. Livan Hernandez is 1-1 with a 6.33 ERA overall this year, 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA on the road and 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA his last 3 starts. Hernandez is 5-15 with a 5.26 ERA overall vs Atlanta since 1997. Mets are 8-20 in their last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 road games. Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Braves are 44-21 in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 20-43 in the last 63 meetings in Atlanta. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Lee Kostroski

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Over

Although Petco Park has a reputation as a low-scoring pitcher's park, five of the last six games played there entering this series went 'over' the total. On the year the Padres have been an 'over' team and eight of the last eleven meetings between these two teams have played 'over' the total. 38 runs were scored between these teams in three games earlier this season in Colorado and the venue change will not likely produce as big of a drop in the numbers as some might think.

Aaron Cook went 16-9 last season for the Rockies but he has disastrous statistics so far in 2009. Cook owns a 7.11 ERA on the year including 15.63 in road games. Cook has allowed at least three runs in every outing this year and walks and home runs have been problems, allowing 12 walks and seven home runs in just over 25 innings this season. Cook has only 13 strikeouts on the year and the Padres had decent success against him last week. Colorado's bullpen has struggled, allowing opposing batters to hit .307, already losing six games in the relief innings.

San Diego has blown six save opportunities this season already as the loss of Trevor Hoffman has loomed larger than most expected. Padre starter Josh Geer made a strong debut start in 2009 but has been hit hard his last two appearances. Geer has allowed eleven runs in just 17 innings this season and San Diego is 0-3 in the three games he has pitched. San Diego recently played a four-game set in Los Angeles which has hurt the overall scoring numbers while the Giants just played in San Francisco for a low-scoring series. Look for this total to be depressed a bit and despite playing in San Diego runs should be had in this match-up and with a fairly low number with two struggling pitchers and two mediocre bullpens this game should have great opportunities to go 'over'.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

Oakland is 10-2 their last 12 games vs. righty starters and they are 9-3 vs. losing teams. The Athletics are 6-2 after scoring two or less runs in their last game and they are 4-0 when the Total is 9.0 10.5. The Angels are 4-10 off a win and they are 5-16 in Game 2 of series. The Angels are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. lefty pitchers and they are 2-5 their last 7 Tuesday games. PLAY ON OAKLAND -w/Braden

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION


(708) Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5


The Cavs have had plenty of rest after sweeping the Pistons in
round one. They may be a bit rusty early, but I expect them to put
away this young Hawks team that is feeling good about themselves
after knocking off the Heat in the first round. Lay the points.


2009 Free Selections Record  66-55  (54.5%)


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Free Selection from Totals4U
Monday's free selection: Baltimore/Tampa Bay under 9 1/2

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today's pick is the Cleveland Caviliers  -11.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Dallas at Denver
Pick: Denver -6.5

The Nuggets are playing as well as anyone in the playoffs right now. They have really come together as a team, and they have been money at home. The Nuggets ran their home winning streak to 14 straight games and they are not just winning but doing so in a very impressive fashion. The last eight Nuggets wins at home have been by 10+ points, as they are steamrolling everyone. All 14 of those wins would have resulted in an ATS cover of the line posted for tonight's game. They have just two losses the entire season to teams with less than a 65% winning percentage when facing them on their home court. The Nuggets are 26-17 ATS this season vs. teams that allow 100+ points per game. They are also 25-23 ATS as a favorite (including 25-16 at home). Dallas limped into the playoffs losing their last four on the road to teams in the playoffs by a margin greater than the pointspread here. They caught a break against an injured and aging San Antonio team, but we already saw that Denver is ready to make some noise in the 2009 playoffs. The Mavericks bring an 8-17 ATS mark into this one against the NBA's Northwest conference while the Nuggets carry a 38-15 ATS mark in their last 53 as a 5-10.5 favorite. The Nuggets are too hot to ignore, and they are combining motivation with skill right now. That combination often results in playoff blowout wins.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

JACK JONES

St. Louis Cardinals -120 over Philadelphia Phillies

Adam Wainright has pitched pretty well early in the season, giving up just 3 ER on 15 hits while striking out 17 in 17.3 innings at Busch Stadium.  Brett Myers has given up 22 hits and 13 walks over his last 18.7 innings, so his 4.34 ERA during that span is a little misleading when you see his 1.88 WHIP.  Wainright is also 3-0 against the Phillies with a 1.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  The Cards should have the edge with the bats as well with the team hitting .284 against right-handers compared to the .250 mark the Phillies are hitting against righties.  I know St. Louis has had their bats get a little cold here lately, but expect a bounce back in front of the home crowd.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Evan Altemus

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Under 179

The majority of the games between these two teams went over the total this season.  However, that trend will change in this game.  Atlanta showed in their series against Miami that their offense can really struggle at times, especially on the road.  They tend to settle on jump shots and one on one basketball when facing motivated defenses.  I look for their offense to really struggle in this game as a result of Cleveland’s tough defense.  The Cavaliers play a slower style of basketball, using their stifling defense to shut down opponents.  Detroit really struggled offensively against Cleveland in the 1st round, but their offense is better than Atlanta.  In addition, this game will be the first for Cleveland in several days because of their sweep over the Pistons, so I look for them to be sluggish on offense in the first half.  Look for this game to fall under the total.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +125 

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia Phillies as they play the Cardinals in Game 2 of this series. Phils were a 7* Titan DOG winner along with 7* Titan winner on Boston. The AiS has the Phils graded as a 3* play today. I mentioned yesterday that the strength of the 2009 edition is a repeat of the strength of last year’s World Championship - the BULLPEN. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-17 making 256.2 units since 2003. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts. Philly starter Brett Myers is a strong 25-8 (+17.9 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Take the Phillies.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Steve Merril

Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins    
Play: Under 8

The Marlins and Reds will wrap up their series in Florida on Tuesday night as both teams send up and coming righthanders to the hill. Florida will send Chris Volstad to the mound and he is 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA so far this season. Volstad is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two home starts so far this season. Volstad hasn’t faced the Reds yet in his career and only one Red has any sort of history against him. Willy Tavares is 1-2 with a walk in three at-bats.

Going for the Reds is Edinson Volquez. He is 3-2 with a 4.45 ERA, but has been stronger in his last three outings. He is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts with all three going Under as well. Volquez went 2-0 against the Fish last year, winning 9-4 in Florida and 5-3 in Cincinnati. Volquez has limited the Marlins to a .207 team batting average against him. Dan Uggla (1-6), Wes Helms and Hanley Ramirez (0-4), and Cody Ross (0-3) are all struggling against Volquez.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

STL (-125) vs PHI

Adam Wainwright is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in five appearances against Philly, including three starts. In 12 career at-bats against the right-hander, Jimmy Rollins has three hits - the most by any player currently on Philadelphia's roster - but he also has four strikeouts.

Brett Myers had no record and a 6.00 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals in 2008. Albert Pujols is hitting .346 (9-for-26) with two homers in his career against Myers. Two of Skip Schumaker's five hits off the Phillies hurler have been home runs.

I expect an inspired effort from St. Louis tonight after seeing Rick Ankiel carted off the field in the eighth inning last night (head-first collision with the wall).

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

King Creole

NYY / BOS Over 9.5

MIKE DIMURO gets the call tonight 'behind the dish' in the new Launching Pad known as Yankee Stadium, where the OVER has already gone an impressive 7-2 O/U so far this season. DIMURO comes in with a 3-1 O/U record so far... and is 7-1 O/U in his last 8 games dating back to last season. Average combined runs in his games is 11.3 RPG. Last season, he went 10-3 O/U in 'Righty vs Righty' matchups.

Josh Beckett comes in on a 4-game 'OVER' streak, as his ERA is 9.13 in those 4 games. In each of his last two starts, he exited in the 5th inning after allowing 13 > hits plus walks. he went 3-1 O/U in 4 starts vs the Yankees last season with an ERA over 5.00. Joba Chamberlain comes in with a home ERA of 9.68 and an opponent team batting average of .478

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