Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Scott Delaney

Play the Over with the Nuggets/Hornets tonight in Denver.

Whether or not the Nuggets cover this game, one thing is for sure, and that is they'll be pushing the rock against a team that is all but left-for-dead after that humiliating 58-point loss at home Monday night.

You would think the Hornets would show some pride tonight, and play an offenisve game to stay in this thing, or at least to show some pride before bowing out. And to do that, they'll need to play offense, not try to stop Denver's scoring barrage.

Though I see a plethora of numbers supporting the under, the high number is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six home games (2-0 in this series) and is also on a 9-3 run in Denver’s last 12 games as the installed chalk.

Most importantly, in this rivalry, these two teams have topped the total in each of their last four meetings inside the Pepsi Center.

This one goes high tonight.

Hornets/Nuggets OVER

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

With Portland forcing a game 6 last night I am now 6-2-2 with my complimentary releases in the NBA playoffs this season.

Even with the Oddsmakers finally giving the Nuggets the respect they deserve in this series I still don’t think it’s enough here tonight.  Not when Denver is fresh off a 58 point road win in game 4 of this series to go with their pair of double digit wins to open up this series.  In fact with the Nuggets having won 4 of the last 5 series games played and covering all five of those games I am shocked tonight’s number is not even higher.

Meanwhile, for New Orleans given their embarrassing performance last game out its tough imagining them bounce back on the road in Denver where they have lost their last 3 games both straight up and against the spread.

Bottom line the Nuggets are clearly better than the Hornets and not wanting to travel back to New Orleans for a game 6 I fully expect for Denver to wrap of this series tonight and to do so by at least 13 points.

All Denver minus the home chalk!

PICK: Denver Nuggets

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

John Ryan

Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets     
Play: Over 7.5

Ryan is 17-6 ATS w/ his 10* NBA Titan releases this season. Here is another one for you to unload on that is reinforced by TWO tremendous proven money making systems + meaningful game dependent angles. His AiS methodology shows an 85% probability that this play win will win ATS. Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Mets/Marlins. AiS shows a 74% probability that 8 or more runs will be scored in this game and a 50% probability that one of these teams may score 8 on their own merit. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 45-17 mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play over with NL home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season. Florida is 17-4 OVER (+13.2 Units) in road games versus a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 2 seasons. Mets are a solid 12-2 OVER (+10.0 Units) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Under  10.5

The Rockies, on a mild afternoon with (possibly!) some favorable winds, are expected to score plenty here along with the Padres. However, we just don't see it that way and will grab the line value on this total by taking the UNDER. The Rockies Aaron Cook has found his sinker again and he's actually pitched much better at home this season than he has on the road. Cook also has a 2.74 ERA in his career against the Padres. San Diego sends Kevin Correia to the mound and, don't be fooled by his winless record in three starts on the season.

Correia's respectable 4.50 ERA doesn't even do justice to the fact that he's been handcuffing hitters to the tune of a .228 batting average against! Also, the Padres right-hander has held the Rockies to a .237 BAA in his career and this has been compiled in 22 games (5 starts) so Correia has consistently fared well against the Rockies. This total is now approaching an eleven and, yet, just as in yesterday's game we expected the total runs to end up at seven! Great line value here as this will be much more of a pitchers' duel than people are expecting. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Colorado on Wednesday afternoon.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rocketman Sports

St Louis @ Atlanta
Play: St Louis

St Louis is scoring 5.7 runs per game overall this year, 5.4 runs per game on the road and 6.6 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Atlanta is scoring only 4.1 runs per game overall, 3.7 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Atlanta bullpen has a 5.11 ERA overall this year. Wainwright is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA overall this year. Wainwright is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA overall vs Atlanta since 1997. Vazquez is 2-6 overall vs St Louis since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Detroit Tigers +134

After getting shut out 11-0 last night, expect the Tigers, who are 5-2 at home this season, to bounce back and take the series. It was no surprise that the Yanks finally broke a 4-game skid against Jackson yesterday, but the reality is that New York is struggling with A-Rod out, and the bullpen has been atrocious. Both teams will see pitchers they've never seen tonight, but that gives the edge to the Tigers at home with a better lineup right now. Lastly, we'll play against a road team (NY YANKEES) - average hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games because this system is 37-14 the last 5 seasons. Fade the Yankees.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

JrTips

HORNETS vs. NUGGETS

The Denver Nuggets won in a 121-63 shellacking over the Hornets Monday Night and they are up 3-1 in their best-of-seven series. The Nuggets stifled All-Star point guard Chris Paul, whose four points and six assists amounted to one of the worst games of his career, with waves of double teams that caused him to have a half-dozen turnovers. The Nuggets have put so much pressure on Chris Paul that he feels like he's being blitzed the entire game and they won't change their strategy for Game 5. The Hornets entire organization was embarressed from taking the worst losss in NBA history and they will come back hungrier and more aggressive than they have played all year. The Nuggets have too much fire power for the Hornets to get the win in Denver but as professionals that were embarresed in front of the entire sports world, they will play a competitive game tonight and stay within the number. TAKE NEW ORLEANS+10 1/2

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

VEGAS EXPERTS

Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins

Tampa Bay starting pitcher Scott Kazmir has been tremendous on the road this season as he has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings of work with a 2-0 TSR. He has pitched well in his career against the Twins with a 3.18 ERA in five starts, but has not gotten the run support. As a favorite, he has a 21-6 TSR. He will be opposed by Twins righty Nick Blackburn who has just one start against the Rays in his young career and it is one that he would probably like to forget about. He allowed six earned runs and walked three batters in less than two innings on the mound. Take the Rays

Play on: Tampa Bay

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Sports Gambling Hotline

Miami at ATLANTA -5' 

Game Four of this series on Monday was well UNDER the posted price of 186 total points, as the teams combined for a paltry 152 points.

We expect another LOW-SCORING contest in Game Five, as the UNDER trends are starting to become to overwhelming to ignore.

With Monday's LOW, the last pair in this series, and 3 of the first 4 have landed UNDER the posted price. Overall, 7 of the last 8 series meetings dating back to the regular season have held LOW.

Atlanta has played 43 home games to date, and 24 of the 43 have played UNDER the posted price.

With this being the "swing game" in what now amounts to a best-of-three series, look for the teams to emphasize defense first, and the points on the socreboard to be limited.

Play on the UNDER.

4♦ UNDER

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

New Orleans at DENVER -10' 

Let me ask you a question...Do you think the Hornets had any fun flying to Denver in preparation for tonight's elimination game? LOL

New Orleans was embarrassed mightily on Monday night, losing by 58-points, and while one would think the Hornets would show a little pride tonight, and try to compete, I just don't see them hanging in this game for the full four quarters!

Denver has shown that they can consistently handle this New Orleans team, as the Nuggets are now 5-2 straight up the last 7 times these teams have faced one another, and the Nuggets are also 6-1 against the spread in those 7 meetings.

New Orleans owns just 2 outright wins, and 2 covers in their last 9 games dating back to the regular season, and after watching the heartless-effort they showed on Monday, there is no way I can throw good money on this team in decline.

Nuggets roll!

3♦ DENVER

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

New Orleans +10' at DENVER 

After Monday's 58-point record-setting blowout at the hands of the Nuggets, it would be REALLY easy sit here and tell you to lay the points with Denver in tonight's Game 5 match up. However, that would be a mistake and here's why:

Clearly the Hornets mailed it in Monday, as the margin mounted, they simply threw in the towel and the final score snow-balled to a 58-point shellacking. Granted, you never like to see a team quit, but under the circumstances, it was understandable. Needless to say, the Hornets were embarassed like I've never before in the NBA Playoffs, and I expect them to respond accordingly tonight. Don't misunderstand, I don't mean they'll win outright, but they sure as hell will keep this game within the number.

So to get an idea of how the Hornets can keep this game competitive, let's look over Game 3 (the only game they won). What was the difference? Two things, and they both have a lot to do with each other: effort AND defense. Hornets held the Nuggets to 40% shooting, including Billups, Anthony, and Smith to a combined 18 of 48 from the field (or 37% shooting)! Its all begins and ends with defense, because we've seen from this series that New Orleans cannot play the run-and-gun style that Denver likes to play.

Finally, there's the all-important letdown factor. C'mon guys, its only human nature to take your foot off the gas after destroying your opponent by 58-points the game prior. Coach Karl can say what he will to motivate his troops, but there's no doubt in my mind the Hornets will play with more energy tonight. Denver wants to finish this series on their home floor (and they most likely will tonight), but that doesn't mean the Hornets are simply going to lay down and die. Look for Paul and company to give their last stand tonight, grabbing the cash in the process!

Small play on New Orleans plus the points over Denver in Game 5 of this Western Conference Playoffs series.

1♦ NEW ORLEANS


San Diego +135 at COLORADO 

Intriguing match up here, because the price on this contest is based heavily on Aaron Cook's past efforts against the Padres, but that's not a good indicator of success tonight and here's why:

You see, while Cook is 11-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 18 career starts against the Friars, he hasn't pitched anything like that thus far this season. He's 0-1 with an ugly 8.35 ERA (Rockies 0-4 in his starts this season), and is coming off a start against the Dodgers in which he pitched relatively well, but walked SIX batters! In the start prior, he got tagged for 5 runs in 4 innings, so let's not get carried away with Cook's past efforts, especially when he struggling badly in the present!

Opposing Cook is the Padres Kevin Correia, who's 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA on the season. He's also having issues walking batters, but overall his efforts this season have been far more consistent than Cook. I liked what I saw in his last start against the Pirates, despite the 4 walks, and I expect he can build off that effort today. Note, he's 1-1 with a solid 2.52 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rockies!

Finally, its important to note, for all the Padres issues at the plate, they're hitting righties well of late, batting .316 against them over their last 10 games! On the flip side, the Rockies have not been swinging the bats nearly as well, batting just .249 against righties at Coors this season.

Bottom line, I can understand the temptation to side with Cook after looking at his numbers against the Padres in the past. But anyone who's seen him pitch this season, knows he's still in early season form and is vulnerable in this spot against a Padres team hitting righties well of late. Correia hasn't been great, but he's been good enough. Let's grab some of that plus money with the Friars this afternoon!

Take San Diego behind Correia over Colorado and Cook in this MLB match up.

2♦ SAN DIEGO

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -125

I'll bet the Rays tonight as Kazmir gives them an edge over Blackburn and the Twins. The Rays are an impressive 24-11 in Kazmir's last 35 starts, 21-7 in Kazmir's last 28 starts as a favorite, and 6-1 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The Twins have struggled against the AL East and also in the underdog role. The Twins are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. American League East and 4-14 in their last 18 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are also 0-6 in Blackburn's last 6 starts vs. American League East and 1-8 in Blackburn's last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Rays.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

GoodFella

HOU (+130) vs CIN

Houston has outscored Cincinnati 12-4 in the first two games, including Tuesday night's 8-3 win. With 10 hits Tuesday, the Astros have batted .311 with 17 home runs during their 11-game win streak at the Great American Ball Park, which began Sept. 25, 2007. "They like to come in here and hit,"Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "They were commenting around the batting cage about how they feel comfortable and confident playing here." Tonight, the Reds give the ball to the talented but WILD Edinson Volquez. Volquez has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his four starts and issued a career-high seven walks - five in one inning - in a 4-3 loss Friday night to Atlanta. I have watched the full game in both of Volquez's last two starts...& he just does not have command over his pitches right now, & Houston has some very patient hitters, who should be able to wait him out & take advantage of his wildness. Houston will look for a repeat effort from Felipe Paulino tonight (0-1, 3.00), in his second start this season against the Reds, the right-hander pitched six scoreless innings opposite Volquez on April 19. Volquez, won all three career starts over Houston and allowed one earned run in each, including a 4-2 win April 19. Those numbers dont mean a whole lot to me, considering I have personally watched both of his last starts, & unless he finds his command tonight, Houston should cash for us here tonight, & I am banking he will once again struggle to find the strike zone.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Wunderdog

New Orleans at Denver
Pick: First Half UNDER 99

I like this game to go UNDER in the first half. The combination of the Hornets resolve for game five, with the complacency of the Nuggets, will lead to a defensive first half here. New Orleans is 26-15 UNDER in the first half on the road this season. They are also 25-15 UNDER in the first half when the line is between 95 and 100. In addition, the Hornets are 20-10 UNDER in the first half this season when revenging a loss as they come out playing hard defense. They are also 16-6 UNDER the past two seasons coming off a game in which they scored 85 or less points. Finally, New Orleans is 13-5 UNDER this season in the first half when facing an opponent that averages 103+ points per game. I am going with the first-half UNDER here.

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