SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

JMK Winners

15* MO
15* Pitt

20* NBA GOY Houston
10* Wizzards


Marc Lawrence

5 * Pittsburgh


Wayne Root

Chairman - UConn
Mill - Pitt


PPP

4% Pitt Under

3% Pitt

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Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Big Al

At 7:05 pm, our Elite 8 Game of the Year is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Villanova. It's relatively rare for two conference teams to meet in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, everyone remembers the 1980s when three Big East teams made the Final Four, or when Danny Manning and Kansas upset Oklahoma for the title. But since 1991, it's only happened six other times, with the most recent being seven years ago when Missouri and Oklahoma faced off in the quarterfinals. The last time these two rivals met, it was in Philadelphia, and the Wildcats won by 10 points. Of course, that was one of the four games which Panther star DeJuan Blair fouled out, and three of Pittsburgh's four losses this year have come when its big man has fouled out. The flip side, of course, is that Pitt is 30-1 this year when Blair DOESN'T foul out. Certainly, if you're from the Steel City, you have to like those odds. And one also has to like that Pitt is only laying a couple of points in this game, compared to the other #1 seeds which are laying 5+ points in this round. The reason, of course, is that Pitt has not covered the spread yet in this tournament (compared to the other seven teams left, who all won and covered their previous game). But that's far from a negative in the NCAA Tournament. And, when one looks at teams off a pointspread loss in their previous game who are matched up against a foe not off a pointspread loss, provided our "cold" team also is not off a pointspread win in its two games prior to that as well, one finds that these "cold" teams do terrific when the pointspread is "reasonable" -- that is, when the line is not 5 or more points. Our "cold" teams in this situation are a solid 32-13 ATS in the NCAA Tourney since 1991, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if our team comes into the game with a win percentage greater than .875! That's one reason I like Pitt. Another is the simple fact that Villanova just doesn't have anyone who can match up inside with Blair. The Wildcats' only real hope is that Blair commits silly fouls, and has to sit on the bench. But although a possibility, it's not something a team really wants to hang its hat on. The Wildcats also had a benefit of playing the first two tourney games in its home city of Philadelphia (the only team this year with such an advantage). But teams who win rounds 1 and 2 while playing at home generally don't make it to the Final Four once they have to step onto a neutral court, and such teams are 20% ATS in the Elite 8 Round. Take Pittsburgh.

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SIXTH SENSE

2% VILLANOVA/PITTSBURGH OVER 142 This line has come down since I released it

2% CONNECTICUT -5.5 No higher than -6

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JEFFERSON-SPORTS

UCONN -5.5

UCONN OVER 151

This has been the one team we could count on during this tourney. Last game we got a great game from Thabeet. 15 points and 15 boards and 4 blocks. Todays key will be AJ Price for UCONN. He is very smart and does not turn the ball over. I love Calhoun's comment about how they do not want to run with Mizzou like Memphis did. UCONN will take every opportunity to break the press to score. We have been on a lot of Mizzou's overs this season. They do not quit.

That is the key in Mizzou's games. Will their opponent break the press to set up their offense or break the press to score. This is the most important question when taking this over. Watching UCONN all year, I say they break to score. Calhoun is an excellent in game coach. If you notice, whenever they miss a few jumpers, he has them attacking the basket relentlessly. The last thing Missouri wants to do is take on a UCONN team that has time to set Thabeet up in the paint. Look for Mizzou to attack the hoop and attack in transition.

Last night we saw the Cuse settling for jumpers even when they were 0'fer in the first half. If you noticed, Johnny Flynn could get to the rim at will but they went away from that. We took that Cuse loss on the chin but luckily we had the Spurs in the NBA. Ginobili was fantastic as expected. He is the most influential player on that team. We cashed on the Spurs. 3-1 last 3 days after a bad start in the tourney, take care.

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The Hoops Guru Guaranteed Selections

NCAA ELITE EIGHT QUADRUPLE PLAY WINNER

Connecticut -5.5

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Indian Cowboy

4 Unit Play. Take Over 150 between Uconn vs. Missouri

Give both of these teams credit for making it this far. Uconn with its distractions still finds itself having a chance to make it to the Final 4. These two teams have never met in recent history. Missou has defeated the likes of USC by 11, crushing Cal but losing to Illinois as well as Xavier in neutral footing by 4 in their non-conference schedule. UConn has defeated the likes of Miami-Florida, crushing Wisconsin and Gonzaga in a semi-away game on the road. Missou has put up its fair share of points in the tourney putting up 78 against Cornell, 83 against Marquette and 101 against Memphis - in that order. This team has yielded 59 to Cornell, 79 to Marquette and 91 to Memphis in that order. Uconn put up 103 against Chatt, 92 against Big 12 team Texas A&M and 72 against Purdue who likes to slow things down. I think Uconn might be a bit too athletic and big down low for Missouri which is the trouble Purdue had with Uconn. If Missouri has any chance of winning this contest it will be thruogh their outside shot. Expect a lot of rebound and up and down action as there is a reason why this total is high. Missouri's coaching staff will want this as a higher paced game as I beileve it benefits them. If you are looking for another play, check out Under in Villanova/Pitt but I liked this play more as if the Uconn can drop 72 on a good defensive team such as Purdue, they are likely to drop 80 on a up and down team such as Missou. Plus, you have a Mizzou team that has only increased in scoring as the tournament has gone putting up 83 against a Big East squad in Marquette. The chances of this game reaching the 160's are solid so we will take the over here. Mizzou has played the over in its last 2 tourney games, Missouri is 7-0 to the Over in its last 7 games as an Underdog and Uconn is 6-0 to the Over in its last 6 games Tourney as a favorite.

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Scott Rickenbach

Top Play Tourney GOY

PITT

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INDIAN COWBOY

4 Unit Play. Take the Houston Rockets -15 over the L.A. Clippers

I'm glad things are getting back to the swing of things for us as we cashed with the Raps yesterday and the Under in Chicago to make it 2 in a row for us in the Association. There are several solid games in the NBA for you to look at today. Smoe other games include the Grizzlies catching 12.5 with revenge at portland who comes off a big win over phoenix, or Utah with revenge over Phoenix at home but the Suns come off a tough loss to Portland, or even the Knicks catching 7 on the road as they should be a load for Charlotte to handle with revenge today as well. We will roll with the Rockets however. There are some nice facets for us including the fact that the Rockets lost to this by 13 on the road at L.A. back on Decmeber 13th when McGrady was leading this team. So, the Rockets have revenge and they also come off a double-digit loss to Utah on the road. I remember a stat that I've been following and that is the Rockets are 5-1 ATS coming off a 10 point loss or more. So, that applies here. We get a very good Rockets team, who has won 7 of their last 10, who has revenge and comes off a loss. On top of this, Davis and Camby are both expected to be doubtful for this game and Thornton is questionable as he only played a few minutes against the Spurs. The Spurs were up by 20 on this team in the first half and never looked back as they won by 13 covering the spread. The Rockets have revenge though so they will look to pile the score a bit more and this team plays hard, all 40 minutes. Houston is capable of winning games big due to their defense as they defeated Minnesota by 19 earlier this year at home. The Clippers struggle to keep it close against winning teams in the league as they are 2-10 ATS against teams with a winning home record and the Rockets are a solid bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS following a straight up loss.

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