Wednesday Service Plays

Wednesday Service Plays

Cajun Sports

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Philadelphia 76ers    
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5

The Wachovia Center will be the site of tonight’s east meets west battle between the host Philadelphia 76ers and the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. The 76ers are returning home after a five game road swing that saw them get a win in LA over the Lakers to open the trip and then lose to Phoenix and Golden State but closing with wins over Sacramento and Portland. A check of the database shows that NBA teams off at least four road games and are now a favorite of 10 to 11.5 points are 0-5 ATS this season. As a non-conference favorite in the same situation teams are 5-17 ATS and if they are a home favorite these teams are 4-13 ATS this season. The Wachovia Center has not been kind to the Sixers of late with them only winning 2 of the last 7 times as a host and also going 7-11 ATS their first game back off a road trip. Philadelphia is 20-14 SU at home but has struggled against the spread posting a record of 15-16 ATS. The 76ers are 11-15 ATS as a home favorite and have lost six straight when laying seven or more points. Philadelphia averages 97.8 points per game at home and allows 93.5 points per game. Minnesota has been solid on the road when it comes to covering the spread with a record of 21-14 ATS this season. The T-Wolves are averaging 98.0 points per game on the road and allowing 102.1 points per game. They have been a much better team on the road than at home when it comes to taking care of their backers. The T-Wolves are 8-3 ATS when playing the second game of a road trip this season. Minnesota is in the midst of a five game losing skid but we know that they are 12-2 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The database also shows that NBA teams coming off 5 straight losses and playing on the road are a money-making 43-26 ATS. We will take the generous points here as the T-Wolves keep this one well within the number.

Graded Selection: 2* Minnesota Timberwolves 102 Philadelphia 76ers 105

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Jeff Hochman

Saint Marys CA vs. San Diego State   
Play: San Diego State -3

St. Marys has trouble with teams that are more athletic and faster than they are. I believe SD State will be a step quicker. St. Marys also doesn't get many steals and are kinda sloppy on offense. SD State by 6!

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: New Jersey Nets

A right back revenge rematch finds the Nets looking to avenge a 96-88 home loss suffered this past Sunday against Cleveland. That fits nicely in to the New Jersey's 9-2 ATS mark on the road this season against teams off a SU and ATS win. Better yet, the Nets are 13-1 ATS in this series when the Cavs are off a SU and ATS win, including 6-0 ATS in Cleveland. With New Jersey battling for its playoff life, we'll grab the points in this payback tonight.

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Dave Cokin

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS DALLAS MAVERICKS
Take: DALLAS MAVERICKS

I'm playing the schedule tonight as Golden State visits Dallas. The Warriors put up a huge fight Tuesday in San Antonio, and now must face the Mavericks with fatigue a potential major factor. The Mavericks are coming off a really nice break and should be ready to fire tonight, and I'm sure they'll be eager to avenge a loss to the Warriors the last time these teams met. Good spot to lay the points with Dallas.

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Jimmy The Moose

Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Over

The over is 8-3 in Calgary's last 11 overall. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 vs. an Eastern Conference opponent. The Flames have played over the total in 6 of their last 7 road games. In their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record the over is 7-1-2. The over is 6-2 in Pittsburgh's last 8 games overall. The Penguins have played over the total in 8 of their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the over.

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Matt Rivers

For Wednesday take Oregon State, how can I not!?!?!?

I have been riding Craig Robinson's much improved Beavers squad for awhile now. This team is just not the same garbage they have been over the past few years and right now are a competitive bunch that not only wants to continue their season but just may with another win today.

These teams have met three times already this season with OSU winning the first two and Stanford taking the last meeting in the Pac-10 tournament. The Beavs even dominated that first half and led that game by eight points at the break before getting whacked a bit in the first five minutes of the second half in the loss and one point non-cover. But all in all State has been the better team when facing the Cardinal and now at home should be extremely confident and fired up today.

OSU has already won a few tournament games at home and are lucky enough to get another here against Anthony Goods and what is probably the more talented team in Stanford but a team that is far from being all that. Today's visitors lost the Lopez Brothers to the NBA and in the first month of the season you would never know it as things were phenomenal and way overachieving early on. But it evened out and the Cardinal lost a whole lot and became what they should have been all along which is mediocre at the very best.

I do expect a tight game and like it has been of late OSU has learned how to win and should win. Robinson has proven to be a miracle worker in this his first season and I expect another semi one tonight!

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Bobby Maxwell

Kentucky at NOTRE DAME -3 

If it's a no-problem, FREE winner you're looking for, we've got it right here on the college hardwood as we play Notre Dame to get the job done at home over Kentucky.

People tend to forget this Notre Dame squad was playing some pretty good basketball coming down the stretch in the always tough Big East conference and this line is a little short in our estimation, especially with the Irish getting Kentucky in South Bend, Indiana.

Notre Dame edged New Mexico 70-68 on Thursday, but failed to cover as a five-point favorite. The Irish have won eight of their last 12 games and four of their last five. Remember this team went to UConn and played the Huskies right down to the wire fbefore losing in the final minute.

Kentucky edged Creighton 65-63 on Monday, covering as a 2 1/2-point favorite. It's the first time they have won consecutive games since late-January. The Wildcats are on ATS slides of 5-10 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-4 on Wednesdays.

Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover and these guys seem to be focused on the task at hand. Look for the Irish to control the pace and dominate this one.

4♦ NOTRE DAME

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JIM FEIST

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS / NEW YORK KNICKS
Take Over

Neither team is any good defense, ranked 25th and 28th in the NBA in points allowed. The LA offense is healthy and getting better. In a loss to Boston, Zach Randolph led the Clippers with 17 points and 14 rebounds, and Baron Davis had 13 points, eight assists and seven boards. The Knicks uptempo offense is ranked 4th in the NBA, averaging 105.5 ppg. These teams met last mont in a 128-124 final, a game that sailed over the total by 32 points. Look for plenty of offense in the rematch, play the Clippers/Knicks over the total!

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Utah / Phoenix

With only one game in the previous six days, Jazz coach Jerry Sloan took advantage of four practice days to stress defense to his team. The Jazz came into Tuesday's game giving up 99.6 points on average, the most by a Sloan-coached team in 16 seasons. Aside from a two-minute flurry of three-pointers by Houston to close the first half Tuesday, Sloan couldn't have asked for a better performance defensively. The Jazz held the Rockets to 34.8 percent shooting and blocked 12 shots in their 99-86 victory, and I expect them to carry that momentum into Phoenix. The Suns are a horrible 1-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins; play on UTAH!

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Carlo Campanella

Minnesota T'Wolves at Philadelphia 76ers

Minnesota is a much more profitable team on the road this season, where they own a 21-14 ATS record. They find themselves getting double digits in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and we're taking, as these T-Wolves match up perfectly against Philadelphia and have now WON and COVERED in 4 of the last 5 meetings, including a 102-96 home win in the last game earlier this season.

Play on: Minnesota

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Tom Freese

Utah at Phoenix

Utah is 37-18 ATS off a double digit win and they are 7-2 ATS vs. an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS off an ATS Win and they are 9-4 ATS vs. NBA Pacific Division foes. Phoenix is 8-20 ATS their last 28 games vs. winning teams and they are 1-4 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Suns are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as home favorites of 4.5 or less points and they are 1-10 ATS their last 11 home games vs. the Jazz. PLAY ON UTAH +

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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -3.5

Utah has lost 3 of its last 4 on the road and will have its work cut out for itself tonight against a Suns team which has won 5 in a row and is fighting hard for the playoffs. Utah just played last night and then had to travel out to Phoenix late and I can assure you that playing the Suns without fresh legs is no treat. In fact, Utah is just 11-24 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. The Suns are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lay the number.

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Ben Burns

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

I cashed a big ticket with the Warriors when they defeated the Mavericks a couple of weeks ago. However, that was at Oakland and the Warriors were well-rested. Tonight's spot is much more difficult.

For starters, the Warriors on the road instead of at home. That's noteworthy as they're an ugly 6-30 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, when playing away from home. That includes a money-burning 7-18 ATS (3-22 SU) mark, when they've played a road game with an over/under line of 210 or greater.

Additionally, the Warriors come off an extremely hard-fought loss at San Antonio last night. This is tougher than a "typical" back to back spot though. That's because they'll also be playing their sixth game in nine nights. That's an exhausting stretch, particularly a banged-up Warriors team that runs up and down the floor so much.

Conversely, the Mavericks haven't played since way back on Friday. Note that the Mavs are 17-12 ATS on the season, when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. They're also 10-5 ATS their last 15 games against teams which allow greater than 99 points per game. Additionally, the Mavs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they hosted the Warriors. They won those five games by an average of 20 points, with each of the last three meetings here resulting in double-digit victories. They should definitely be the "fresher" team tonight and that should lead to another double-digit victory. Consider laying the points.

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DUNKEL

Milwaukee at Toronto   
The Raptors (25-42 SU) look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is just 3-9 ATS against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season.  Toronto is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has Toronto favored by 7.  Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3). 

Game 661-662: Minnesota at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.108; Philadelphia 121.086
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 9; 194 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 10 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+10 1/2); Under

Game 663-664: Milwaukee at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 112.312; Toronto 119.298
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 7; 196 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 201
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3); Under

Game 665-666: Miami at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.187; Indiana 116.235
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 667-668: San Antonio at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.843; Atlanta 127.713
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 669-670: New Jersey at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 115.374; Cleveland 127.159
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 12 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+12 1/2); Over

Game 671-672: Charlotte at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.918; Washington 112.200
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 3 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 673-674: LA Clippers at New York
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 108.797; New York 114.759
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6; 211 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 7; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+7); Under

Game 675-676: Denver at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.315; New Orleans 121.507
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 205
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 677-678: Boston at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.143; Orlando 127.408
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 7; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-3 1/2); Over

Game 679-680: Golden State at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 113.696; Dallas 121.912
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8; 239
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 681-682: Utah at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 120.753; Phoenix 125.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 225
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


NCAAB

Pacific at Bradley
The Braves look to build on their 9-5 ATS as a favorite this season. Bradley is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 6.  Dunkel Pick: Bradley (-5).

Game 683-684: Kentucky at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 64.686; Notre Dame 70.308
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-2 1/2)

Game 685-686: St. Mary's (CA) at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 63.759; San Diego State 69.271
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-3)

Game 691-692: UTEP at Richmond
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 62.965; Richmond 64.569
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 1
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-1)

Game 693-694: Stanford at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 66.882; Oregon State 64.206
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 3
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+3)

Game 695-696: Pacific at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 56.146; Bradley 61.975
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 6
Vegas Line: Bradley by 5
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (-5)

Game 697-698: James Madison at Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 53.396; Old Dominion 62.386
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 9
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 6
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-6)


NHL

Calgary at Pittsburgh
The Penguins bring an 8-3 record in March against a Calgary team that is just 2-3 on the road when the total is 6 or more.  Pittsburgh is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130). 

Game 1-2: Ottawa at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.031; Carolina 12.591
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-155); Over

Game 3-4: Minnesota at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.799; NY Islanders 11.505
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+110); Under

Game 5-6: Florida at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.880; Buffalo 11.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 7-8: Calgary at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.983; Pittsburgh 12.474
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); Over

Game 9-10: San Jose at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.378; Chicago 11.740
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+100); Under

Game 11-12: Anaheim at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.536; Colorado 10.560
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-125); Under

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Scott Rickenbach

Ottawa Senators @ Carolina Hurricanes
PICK: Ottawa Senators

Wednesday’s pick looks like a particularly strong situation! It doesn't get much better than this set-up. Yes, the Hurricanes have been hot recently but the Senators have been even hotter.

Ottawa has managed to make an amazing resurgence to at least keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Though they very likely will still fall short you don't want to go against this Sens team...at least until they are eliminated. Here we see great value with Ottawa as they catch the Hurricanes off of a pair of key divisional wins. Carolina will be seeking revenge in this game but Ottawa is too hot to slow down right now. They've had great success against Canes goalie Cam Ward and the Senators top line will lead the way as Ottawa continues their winning run. Brian Elliott has been solid between the pipes for the Sens and they are worth a look in this very favorable price range tonight! Consider a small play on Ottawa on the money line on Wednesday night.

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Jorge Gonzalez

Kentucky vs. Notre Dame    
Play: Kentucky +2½

Kentucky (22-13) has shown that they are still motivated despite not making the tournament and the heat that Billy Gillespie is under in just his second year as the head coach. The Wildcats escaped the second round with a thrilling 65-63 victory over Creighton in front of a raucous crowd in Omaha, Neb., on Monday. Despite speculation and rumors about Gillespie's future at Kentucky, the Wildcats put together one of their grittiest performances of the year. Kentucky trailed most of the game, but Jodie Meeks converted a three-point play in the lane with 10.6 second left to lift UK. The Fighting Irish were ranked in the top-10 to start the season and faltered in league play losing seven straight games. The Wildcats will be the more motivated team as they will play hard for their coach.

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Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY (CBI GOY)

Stanford -3 over OREGON STATE

The Cardinal are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite, while the Beavers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Wednesday games. Oregon State took both meetings in the regular season, but the Cardinal got a measure of revenge in the PAC-10 Tourney. Stanford has gone 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Corvallis. Stanford has taken their 1st 2 gamnes of the CBI tourney rather easily, as they crushed Boise State by 20 points and then they won at Wichita State by 14. Oregon State has had the easier schedule in the CBI Tourney, yet they could only beat Houston by 4 (at home) and then they won in OT vs a Vermont team that had to fly all the way cross-country to play the game. OSU has had a hard time at the offensive end of the court this year, as they have averaged just 59.5 ppg (320th) and they have averaged 56.7 ppg vs the Pac-10 this year. Stanford has had no such problems at that end of the floor. The Cardinal comes in averaging 72.9 ppg (84th) on 45.6% shooting (79th) and they also shoot 38.1% (30th) from beyond the Arc. The Beavers do have the advantage at the defensive end as they allow just 63 ppg compared to the Cardinal that allows 68.9 ppg. The Cardinal does have a slight edge on the boards (288th to 338th), plus they have a big edge at the FT line as they are 101st (72.9%) at the charity stripe, while the Beaver as are 293rd (64.6%). The Cardinal comes in averaging 77.6 pg in their last 5 games, while the Beavers have averaged just 56 ppg in their last 5. Despite the defensive edge the Beavers own and the fact they they are playing at home, I just don't see OSU being able to score enough to stay with the hot Cardinal in this one. Stanford big in this one


4 UNIT PLAY (CIT GOY)

Bradley/ Pacific Over 129

(I know this is a Totals play, but we'll still use it as a GOY). The Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games, while the Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 non-conference games. Pacific games have averaged 129.4 ppg on the year, while their road games have put up 131.1 ppg, plus their last 5 overall have averaged 135 ppg. The Tigers aren't an offensive machine at 66.8 ppg (202nd), but they do shoot well as they have hit 46.2% of their shots (57th), including hitting 39.7% fro beyond the arc, which is 14th in the nation. The Braves come in 134th in scoring defense (66.3 ppg), 158th in FG% (43.9%) and they don't defense the arc all that well as they are 241st in 3pt defense (35.5%). The Braves have also allowed 75 ppg in their last 3 games on 46.3% shooting. Bradley hasn't been that great on offense overall this year (67.5 ppg on 43.7% shooting), but it has picked up in heir last 9 games, as they have averaged 72.8 ppg on a solid 46.3% shooting. The Braves have averaged 72 ppg on a healthy 47% shooting at home this year, including averaging 76.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting in their last 6 at home. Bradley's games have averaged 134.5 ppg overall, while their home games have averaged 138.5 ppg. We also note that 8 of their last 10 overall have gone Over the total, with an average of 142.8 ppg being scored,. while their last 6 at home have averaged 146 ppg. Pacific does play defense well, but I do see Bradley being able to crack it, while the solid shooting Tigers should be able to get their points vs a Bradley team that iis struggling to stop thier opponents of late. 130+ is more than in reach in this one and I will call for a game in the 140's.     

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Evan Altemus

Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon State Beavers
Pick: Stanford -3

This game will be the fourth match-up between these two teams this season. Stanford was able to get the win against Oregon State in the Pac-10 Tournament to avenge their two losses to the Beavers earlier in the season. In that game, the Cardinal was able to hold the Beavers to 39% shooting overall and only 26 points in the 2nd half. Stanford has shown up to play in the CBI, evident by their two dominant blowout wins against Boise State and Wichita State. I look for them to play with great intensity in this game, as they do not want to fall for a 3rd time against lowly Oregon State. Look for Stanford to get the road win and cover.

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NIT

Kentucky (22-13, 15-14-1 ATS) at Notre Dame (20-14, 10-18 ATS)

Kentucky got a three-point play from star forward Jodie Meeks with 10.6 seconds remaining to rally past Creighton 65-63 as a 2½-point underdog Monday, advancing to this NIT quarterfinals at the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind. Meeks (16 points) was one of three players to score in double figures for the Wildcats, who shot 47 percent from the field and held Creighton to 37.3 percent.

The Wildcats have won consecutive contests for just the second time since Jan. 27, a stretch of 15 games during which Billy Gillespie’s squad is 6-9 SU. Also, Kentucky has followed up a 2-9 ATS slump by cashing in three of its last four games, including a 70-60 rout of UNLV as a 7½-point home favorite in an opening-round NIT game.

Notre Dame has been idle since Thursday, when it held off New Mexico 70-68, but failed to cover as a five-point home favorite. The Irish, who were outshot 41.4 percent to 38.6 percent against the Lobos, essentially won the contest at the free-throw line, going 21-for-25 while New Mexico made just 15 of 25 foul shots.

Since a seven-game losing skid that derailed its season, Notre Dame has won eight of its last 12, including four of the last five. However, the Irish, who knocked off UAB 70-64 as a 5½-point favorite in their opening-round NIT contest, are still just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games, including 3-7 ATS at home.

These schools met four times from 2001-2004, with Kentucky going 4-0 SU and ATS (all as a favorite) with an average margin of victory of 10.3 points per game.

Kentucky has now cashed in seven of its last eight non-conference outings, including four in a row, and it is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 against the Big East. Otherwise, though, the Wildcats are in ATS funks of 5-10 overall, 1-4 on the road, 5-9 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 following a spread-cover and 1-4 on Wednesday.

Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover, but otherwise the Irish are in pointspread slumps of 6-14 overall, 3-9 against the SEC, 2-8 after a SU victory and 0-4 on Wednesday.

Kentucky has stayed under the total in five straight games overall and four consecutive road outings. Also, Notre Dame is on “under” stretches of 10-1 overall (8-0 in the last eight), 13-3 at home (6-0 in the last six) and 7-0 after a SU victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


St. Mary’s (28-6, 16-12-1 ATS) at San Diego State (25-9, 17-12-1 ATS)

St. Mary’s moved into the NIT quarterfinals courtesy of a pair of double-digit home victories over Washington State (68-57 as a 4½-point favorite) and Davidson (80-68 as a five-point chalk). In Monday’s win over Davidson, the Gaels made 46.3 percent of their field-goal tries and got 23 points and 10 assists from star point guard Patty Mills, while holding the Wildcats to 36.8 percent.

San Diego State hammered Weber State (65-49) and Kansas State (70-52) in its two NIT contests, cashing easily in both games. The Aztecs shot a combined 46.8 percent from the field in the two wins and limited their opponents to 39-for-111 shooting (35.5 percent). San Diego State has held six of seven opponents to less than 60 points while giving up an average of just 53.9 ppg.

Both of these teams, which were among the last left out of the NCAA Tournament, are red hot. St. Mary’s has won nine of its last 10 (5-5 ATS), while the Aztecs are 7-1 SU in their last eight and they’ve followed up an 0-6 ATS slump by cashing in five of their last six. The only losses either team has suffered recently came in their respective conference championship games.

These schools have met each of the last two Decembers in the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim, Calif., with St. Mary’s squeaking out wins both times, prevailing 69-64 as a 3½-point favorite in 2007 and 67-64, pushing as a three-point chalk this season. The Gaels are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in five meetings since 2004, with the last three clashes decided by a total of nine points.

St. Mary’s is on positive pointspread runs of 8-2-1 in non-conference play, 10-4-1 against Mountain West Conference opponents, 5-1 on Wednesday and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. However, the Gaels have failed to cover in five straight road games and they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover.

Aside from a 1-7 ATS mark in its last eight games on Wednesday, San Diego State carries nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 5-1 overall, 10-4-1 at home, 4-0 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 against the West Coast Conference, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-2 after a spread-cover.

St. Mary’s has topped the total in six straight non-conference games and five straight Wednesday contests. Otherwise, the under for the Gaels is on streaks of 4-0 on the road, 5-1 against the Mountain West and 11-4 after a SU win, while the Aztecs are on “under” runs of 39-15 overall, 39-12 at home, 35-16 in non-conference play, 5-0 versus the West Coast Conference and 10-3 on Wednesday.

ATS ADVANTAGE:  UNDER


CBI

Stanford (20-13, 19-11-1 ATS) at Oregon State (15-17, 12-14-1 ATS)

Stanford cruised into the semifinals of the second-ever College Basketball Invitational with blowout wins over Boise State at home (96-76 as a 14-point chalk) and Wichita State on the road (70-56 as a one-point underdog). In Monday’s rout at Wichita State, the Cardinal shot 50 percent from the field and held the Shockers to 34 percent shooting.

Oregon State has eked out a pair of wins in this tournament, turning back Houston 49-45 as a one-point underdog a week ago tonight then knocking off Vermont 71-70 in overtime Monday, pushing as a one-point chalk. On Monday, the Beavers hit the 70-point mark for the first time since a 77-62 blowout win at Stanford on Jan. 24 – a stretch of 14 games.

Stanford has followed up a four-game losing skid (0-3-1 ATS) by going 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven, including a 62-54 win over Oregon State as a seven-point favorite in the Pac-10 tournament. The Beavers’ two-game win streak in the CBI comes on the heels of an 0-4 SU and ATS nosedive.

The winner is 13-0-1 ATS in the Cardinal’s last 14 games and 11-0 ATS in Oregon State’s last 11.

The Beavers had lost six straight to Stanford (1-5 ATS) before posting a pair of regular-season wins this year – 77-62 as a 16½-point road underdog and 66-54 as a four-point home pup. However, the Cardinal turned the tables in the 62-54 win and cover in the Pac-10 tournament. Stanford is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 clashes between these league rivals.

The Cardinal are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on Wednesday and 16-7-1 versus teams with a losing record. Oregon State is in pointspread slumps of 7-20-1 at home, 0-4 in Pac-10 play, 2-12 on Wednesday and 4-11-1 after a spread-cover.

The Beavers are on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 7-1 at home, 8-3 in Pac-10 action and 5-2 on Wednesday. Conversely, Stanford is in the midst of “over” streaks of 6-2 overall, 16-6 on the road, 5-1 in Pac-10 play and 5-2 versus losing teams. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head matchups between these schools (2-1 this season), with the last four in Corvallis staying low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER


NBA

San Antonio (46-24, 34-34-2 ATS) at Atlanta (42-29, 40-30-1 ATS)

Just 24 hours after winning a nail-biter, the Spurs hit the road for Atlanta to face a red-hot Hawks squad inside Philips Arena.

San Antonio edged Golden State 107-106 at home on Tuesday night, but came nowhere near covering as an eight-point favorite. The Spurs have won just three of their last seven overall (1-6 ATS), and prior to Tuesday’s win they hadn’t scored more than 95 points in any of their previous six outings.

Atlanta has rattled off eight wins in its last nine contests (8-0-1 ATS), including Monday’s 109-97 victory over Minnesota, pushing as a 12-point home chalk. The Hawks’ last eight wins have all come at home with their lone roadie coming Saturday in Cleveland when they lost 102-96 to the Cavs but covered as eight-point pups.

San Antonio has won five straight in this series (2-2-1 ATS) and eight of the last nine (5-3-1 ATS) and it has cashed in 11 of the last 17. These two met on Dec. 12 in Texas when the Spurs got a 95-89 home win but came up just short as 6½-point favorites. The home team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run in this series.

The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six on Wednesday and 2-6 ATS in their last eight against winning teams, but they are on a 5-2 ATS streak when playing the second night of a back-to-back. It’s all positive ATS streaks for the Hawks, including 11-1-1 at home, 12-2-1 overall, 6-0-1 against Western Conference teams, 9-0 against teams with winning records, 7-0-1 after getting one day off and 7-2 against teams from the Southwest Division.

For the Spurs, the under is on runs of 5-2 on the road, 20-7 against Southeast Division teams and 5-1 overall. Atlanta is on “under” streaks of 8-2 at home, 5-1 against the Southwest Division and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. In this series, the under is 6-1 in the last seven. 

ATS ADVANTAGE:  ATLANTA and UNDER


Boston (54-18, 36-36 ATS) at Orlando (52-18, 44-25-1 ATS)

The Celtics will be shooting for their fifth straight win as they visit Amway Arena in Orlando to face the Magic in a matchup of two of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference.

Boston has won four straight (2-2 ATS), including Monday’s 90-77 home win over the Clippers, but it fell short as a 15-point chalk. The Celtics were victorious in their last two road games, winning in San Antonio on Friday 80-77 as 3½-point underdogs and in Memphis on Saturday 105-87 and cashing as eight-point favorites.

The Magic have won three straight (1-2 ATS) and 10 of their last 12 (8-4 ATS). They’re coming off a home-and-home sweep of the Knicks on Saturday and Monday but failed to cash in both contests, their only two non-covers in their last seven games. Orlando’s offense is clicking, topping the 105-point mark in six of its last seven games.

The Celtics have won two of three matchups with the Magic this season (2-1 ATS), but overall the host has dominated this series, winning seven of the last nine (6-3 ATS) and cashing in 21 of the last 29. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the Magic have covered in five of the last seven battles with the Celtics at home.

Boston is on ATS slides of 1-5 following an ATS loss, 2-12 after getting one day off, 0-5 against the Eastern Conference, 3-11 overall and 0-4 on Wednesdays, but the Celtics are 40-16 ATS as a road ‘dog. Orlando is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 38-18 overall, 47-18-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after one day off and 19-7 against teams with a winning record.

The Celtics are on “under” runs of 19-8 on the road, 12-4 as a road underdog, 4-1 after a straight-up win and 5-2 as a pup. The Magic are also on several “under” streaks that include 55-26-2 as a home favorite of up to 4 ½ points, 5-1 at home, 6-1 after getting one day off, 5-0 overall and 7-0 at home against teams with winning road marks. In this rivalry, the under is 5-1 in the last six matchups in Florida.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Denver (45-26, 37-33-1 ATS) at New Orleans (44-25, 30-37-2 ATS)

Two teams jockeying for playoff positioning in the Western Conference square off inside New Orleans Arena when the Nuggets come calling for the Hornets.

Denver had its five-game winning streak stopped in Monday’s 118-115 loss in Phoenix, but it got the cash as a 3½-point underdog. The Nuggets have been lighting up the scoreboard of late, scoring at least 107 points in each of their last six games (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS).

The Hornets have won three straight (2-1 ATS), including Sunday’s 99-89 home win over Golden State, cashing in as 8½-point favorites. Contrary to Denver, New Orleans does it with defense, limiting the opposition to 90.8 points per game at home this season and not allowing any squad to reach triple digits since Feb. 23 (14 straight games).

New Orleans has won three of four in this series (SU and ATS), including two of three this season. In the most recent meeting in the Big Easy, the Hornets got a 94-81 home win back on Jan. 28, easily cashing as four-point favorites. The favorite is on a four-game ATS run in this rivalry.

Denver is on ATS slides of 2-6 on the road, 1-7 after a straight-up loss, 1-4 after getting one day off, 0-4 against the Southwest Division and 2-5 on Wednesdays. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS after getting two days off, but it is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against Northwest Division squads.

The Nuggets are on “over” runs of 18-6 after getting one day off, 8-3 on Wednesdays and 8-3 when they play a team with a winning record, but the under is on streaks of 11-5 after an ATS win, and 7-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. New Orleans is on a plethora of under streaks, including 6-1 when getting two days off, 6-0 overall, 4-0 at home and 4-0 against the Western Conference.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

For Wednesday we’ll back the Hawks minus the points versus the Spurs.

This essentially comes down to one simple truth: Atlanta is covering pointspreads in a big way right now and San Antonio isn’t. With last night’s non-cover against Golden State – they won 107-106 as an eight-point home favorite – the Spurs have now failed to cover in five consecutive games. On the other hand, the Hawks are on a blistering 12-2-1 spread-covering streak, going 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 at home.

Obviously, those trends are built into this pointspread, but I don’t mind laying this somewhat inflated number because not only are these teams heading in opposite ATS directions, they’re heading in opposite directions period. Atlanta has won eight of its last nine, and all eight of the victories have come at home (the only loss was a respectable six-point setback at Cleveland). Meanwhile, prior to last night, the Spurs had dropped two in a row and four out of six.

San Antonio is notorious for stinking it up on back-to-back nights, especially when travel is involved and especially after having to go the distance as it did last night against the Warriors. And because this is a back-to-back spot, there’s a very good chance Tim Duncan won’t play. Throw in the fact that Atlanta has owned its home court this season (28-7 SU) and the home team has dominated this rivalry lately from a pointspread perspective (9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings), and my money’s on the playoff-bound and underrated Hawks.

7♦ ATLANTA HAWKS

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