Monday Service Plays

Re: Monday Service Plays

Rocketman

Oakland vs. Bradley    
Play: Oakland +3

Oakland comes in with a 23-12 record this year while Bradley is 19-14 on the season. Oakland is 5-1 ATS since 1997 and 4-0 ATS last 3 years when playing in March. Seems they step it up a notch at the end of the season. Oakland is 5-1 ATS since 1997 when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Golden Grizzlies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Golden Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Golden Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Golden Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Golden Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden Grizzlies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Golden Grizzlies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Braves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Braves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Braves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight!

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Alex Smart

Denver Nuggets +3.5

The Denver Nuggets (45-25) enter into this game against the high flying Phoenix Suns(38-31) capable of matching their opponents offensive exploits point for point. The difference maker comes on defense, where they Nuggets allow 100.3 PPG, compared to the Suns 106.4 PPG, which gives us a lot of value backing the road dog in my humble opinion.

The Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season, as they go for their 6th straight win vs a inconsistent Suns side, that despite of 4 straight wins , lost 6 straight earlier this month, and has already lost 13 home games this season.

The Suns are 3-15 ATS against top tier shooting teams ,making 46%+ of their shots this season, losing SU by an average of 7.7 PPG. Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning SU Record.

Projected score: Denver 121 Phoenix 116

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Nelly

Wichita State - over Stanford

Wichita State may be just 17-16 on the year but the Shockers had a miserable start to the season and really are played well in the second half of the season. Wichita State is 11-5 since mid-January including 8-0 at home. On the year the Shockers finished 14-3 S/U at home while Stanford owns a 5-9 S/U mark away from home. The Cardinal had the opposite type of season with a great start to the year only to fade down the stretch when opportunities were there. Stanford is 6-10 in the last 16 games and most of strong ATS numbers were compiled at home. Stanford is uncharacteristically poor defensive team, allowing nearly 70 points per game with opponents shooting close to 48 percent. The Cardinal have lost ATS in six of the last eight road games and this will be a tough match-up as the Shockers are playing much better than the overall numbers indicate.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Kentucky at CREIGHTON -2 

First and foremost, the line on this contest absolutely BEGS you to side with the visiting Wildcats, which to any good 'Capper, immediately sends up a red flag. Seriously guys, when is an Missouri Valley school like Creighton favored over an SEC team like Kentucky? Truth be told, there's plenty of reasons to side with Creighton here...

We all remember what happened the last time the Blue Jays faced off with an SEC team in the NIT - an 82-54 shellacking at the hands of Florida. But several things are different here: A. That game was in Gainesville, tonight's contest is at the Qwest Center, where the Blue Jays are 16-2 SU on the season. And B. that Florida team was A LOT better than this Kentucky team (but more on that later), and you know damn sure coach Altman has his troops ready to redeem themsleves after last year's embarassment against the SEC.

Speaking of match ups, we all know the Wildcats are led by Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson, but basketball is a team game, and while those two might be the best players on the court, its clear the Jays are better overall team in this one. Besides Meeks and Patterson, Kentucky nothing but piss-poor point guard play, and very average frontline players. Creighton on the other hand, is a balanced offense, led by their backcourt duo of Woodfox & Stinnett. Despite being the smaller school,  Lawson Jr. and the rest of the Jays frontline match up well with the struggling Wildcats frontcourt (minus of course Patterson).

Bottom line, I cannot in good conscience allow my customers to fall for this obvious trap. Granted, this will be a close contest, but Kentucky's sporadic road play (lost 5 of L6 away games SUATS) and lack of depth behind Meeks and Patterson spell their doom against a balanced, well-coached Jays team playing at home in this one.

Take Creighton over Kentucky in this college hoops match up.

3♦ CREIGHTON

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Robert Homyak

Davidson vs. Saint Marys CA    
Play: Saint Marys CA -4.5

Stephen Curry dropped 32 points to lead Davidson past South Carolina 70-63 in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament last Tuesday night.

Davidson cashed as 3.5-point road underdogs as the game played under the 152-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Patrick Mills swished 27 points to lead St. Mary's over Washington State 68-57 in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament last Tuesday night.

St. Mary's covered as 4-point home favorites as the game played over the 120-point total listed by oddsmakers

Davidson Wildcats are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a victory and 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record. St. Mary’s Gaels are on an 8-1 SU run. St. Mary’s is on ATS runs of 7-2 at home, 7-2-1 in non-league action, 5-1 versus winning teams and 5-0 as a home chalk of less than seven points. For the season, St. Mary’s is 13-1 SU at home.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Stanford at Witchita State
Prediction: Witchita State

Stanford has admittedly fared very well in non-conference play. However, that Cardinal is still just 5-9 on the road. Tonight, they'll take on a Wichita State team which is playing very well and which is a perfect 6-0 ATS its last six tournament games. Consider laying the small number with the home team.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Stanford at Witchita State
Prediction: Witchita State

Not really sure why the Shockers are not favored here. Stanford is 12-0 outside the PAC 10 but the road wins are against Yale, Air Force, and Santa Clara. Witchita State has won eight straight home and rocking as the Shockers are in fact happy to be here and rarely get visits from members of the "Power" Conferences. Can't imagine the Tree wants to be here at all so the homies in a pick'em gets a confident nod. Take the Shockers.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Stanford at Witchita State
Prediction: Witchita State

Stanford lost head coach Trent Johnson to LSU, the Lopez twins, Brook (19.3-8.2) and Robin (10.2-5.7), to the NBA plus two solid role players, Finger (5.9-4.4) and Washington (4.4-4.1) from last year's 28-win, Sweet 16 team. Johnny Dawkins left Coach K's bench to take over at Stanford, getting his first head coaching gig. The Cardinal opened 10-0 this year but struggled in the Pac 10, going 6-12. The Cardinal avenged two regular season losses to Ore St in the Pac 10 tourney but then lost 85-73. Goods (15.7-3.3) and PG Johnson (7.0-4.3 APG) are a solid guard duo, with 6-7 swingman Fields (12.6-6.4), the 6-8 Hill (13.6-5.5) and the 6-8 Owens (7.4-3.7) rounding out the starting-five. The 6-10 Paul (4.2) adds some depth up front, while guards Green (5.9) and Brown (5.4) contribute in the backcourt. Stanford opened the CBI tourney with an impressive home 96-76 home win over Boise St last Wednesday, as Hill had 18-6, Fields 16-4-4 and Green, a surprising 19. The win upped Stanford's non-conference mark this year to 12-0. All that said, I DON'T like the team's chances here in Wichita. Gregg Marshall, of Winthrop fame, took over the Wichita program last year and went just 11-20 (4-14 in MVC play). However, the Shockers, despite losing four starters from that team, have recovered from a slow start. The Shockers improved to 8-10 in MVC play this year and after winning one game in TY's MVC tourney, lost a heartbreaking 63-62 game to Creighton (league's co-champs), dropping them to 16-16 on the year. However, the CBI offered them a bid and the Shockers opened with an 84-73 home win last Wednesday, over Buffalo. It marked the team's NINTH straight home win (14-3 on the year!). JUCO transfer Hannah (11.4-4.2 APG) teams with freshman Murry (11.0-3.7-2.6) in the backcourt, while the 6-7 Durley (8.4-4.3) and the 6-7 Clemente (7.6-7.3) have both put health issues behind them this year, to play very well in the frontcourt. Stutz (4.3-2.7), a 7-0 freshman, hasn't been "all that," but he'll help out inside against the Cardinal. Marshall did a terrific job at Winthrop, leading the Eagles to seven NCAA appearances from 1999-2007, so the man knows just a little about tourney play. His advantage over the inexperienced Dawkins is HUGE and as mentioned, the Shockers have won NINE straight at home. Make that 10 in a row after tonight. Take Wichita St.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Mike Anthony

Vermont vs. Oregon State     
Play: Vermont +102         

Sure having to travel ‘cross country could pose a problem for the Vermont Catamounts, but it is not like they are playing a team that is all that impressive in the Beavers.There is no way a 14-17 school should be playing in any postseason tournament, and even though State dumped Houston 49-45 at home to open the CBI, I don’t think they will be able to duplicate that effort tonight. Vermont came up with a solid outright win at Wisconsin Green Bay in the first round, as they are now 24-8 for the season. The Catamounts have been off-line more often then not this year, but they are 4-1 against the spread in games that have been lined this season. Go with Vermont as they have something to prove against a PAC-10 school.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Boston Celtics -15 over LA Clippers

It's tough to lay this many points in the NBA no matter who is playing, which is why I'm playing it as a free pick instead of a stronger premium. The Clippers are just 7-27 this year on the road while Boston is 28-6, but the key to this team has been the return of Kevin Garnett to the lineup. I know he's only been playing about a quarter and a half the last two games, but just his presence on the floor has motivated the other Celtics to get after it. Having him back tonight will help Boston slow down Zach Randolph, who to his credit has been playing well for the Clippers. LA though hasn't won on the road since February 7th and that is playing some bad teams like the 24 point loss at Toronto, by 18 at Detroit, by 12 at the Kings, by 40 at the Suns, 29 in Portland, etc. LA has gone 0-6 ATS their last six road games as a double digit underdog while Boston is 8-2 ATS coming off a double digit win.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

NHL
Detroit Red Wings -115
Detroit/Calgary Over 6

NBA
Chicago/Washington Over 210
Miami Heat -9

NCAA HOOPS
Kentucky/Creighton Over 139.5
Bradley -3

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Re: Monday Service Plays

John Martin

1 Unit on New York Knicks +6.5

New York simply has to be tired of losing to Orlando, and I feel like tonight they will come out with the attitude that enough is enough. Since February 25th, the Knicks have a 5-point home loss and a 7-point road loss to the Magic. Their last meeting was on Saturday with the Magic winning at home 110-103. I always like taking the team that lost their first meeting in these home-and-home series. Now the Knicks return home to Madison Square Gardens where they have posted both winning SU & ATS records this season. New York doesn’t mind playing on little rest either, as the Knicks are 14-3 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Knicks have also been great at getting revenge, as New York is 17-6 ATS revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Cash in with the Knicks as the underdog.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Black Widow

1* on Miami Heat -9

Miami takes it to Memphis and wins by double-digits Monday. The Heat are fighting for the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference to gain home-court in the first round. This team is 24-11 at home this year, while Memphis is a putrid 5-28 on the road. The Grizzlies are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the road this season. After losing at Memphis in their first meeting, the Heat will not take this team lightly as they come in focused and ready to go. Memphis is 1-8 in their last 9 games overall, losing 6 of those games by double-digits. The Grizzlies are 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Memphis is a terrible 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Take Miami and lay the points.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on NY Knicks +6.5

The Magic just beat the Knicks at home Saturday and gets them again in the 2nd game of this home and home. With the Boston Celtics up next, I expect the Magic to get caught looking ahead here against a Knicks team that will be out to avenge its Saturday loss to Orlando. NY lost at home to the Magic by 5 in the first meeting this season on Feb. 25 to set up a double revenge situation. NY is 17-6 ATS revenging 2 straight losses where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season, winning these games by an average score of 106.7 to 105.4. We'll take the points.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Info Plays

3* on Stanford +1.5

Reasons why Stanford covers the spread:

1.) Stanford is the better team playing from the better conference tonight in the Pac-10, and though they will playing on the road the Cardinal should have no problem taking care of mediocre Wichita State from the Missouri Valley. Stanford has been underrated all season with an 19-13 SU & 18-11 ATS records. The Cardinal should not be receiving points tonight and it’s just an added gift that they are.

2.) Common opponents. These teams have played 2 of the same teams this year. They were Texas Tech and Northern Arizona. Stanford beat Texas Tech 111-66 while Wichita State lost to the Red Raiders 69-72. Against Northern Arizona the Cardinal beat them 66-57 and Wichita State also won 58-53. So Stanford’s average margin of victory in those 2 games was 27.0 PPG while Wichita State won by just 1.0 PPG. This is a key factor when looking at teams in these postseason tournaments and the common opponent edge clearly goes to Stanford.

3.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (STANFORD) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after a win by 15 points or more. This is a 73-31 ATS System hitting 70.2% over the last 5 seasons. Bet Stanford on the road.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

King Creole

Wichita St / Stanford Over 135

Both teams busted out with EXTREMELY high-scoring results in their first game of the CBI Tourney, and we'll look for the point-fest to continue on Monday night. Stanford's OU Line in their game versus Boise State was 149... and the game ended up going OVER by 23 big points in their 96-76 win. Wichita State's OU line in their game versus Buffalo was 123.5... and the game ended up going OVER by 33.5 big points in their 84-73 win.

STANFORD enters tonight's game on a 6-1 O/U run in their last 7 games. And the OU margins haven't even been close. Average combined point totals during that stretch are 151.0 PPG. When installed as an UNDERDOG, Stanford is on a 2-year run in which they have gone 24-5 O/U. That includes 12-2 O/U as road dogs of 6.5 < points..

WICHITA STATE enters tonight's game on an overall 7-2 O/U run and 5-1 O/U run in their last 6 home games. Since February 1st, 'HOMERS' have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. Average OU margin in that stretch is +14.8 PPG.... giving us a nice DOUBLE-DIGIT OU 'cushion'. Shockers are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 FAVORITE roles... and 5-1 O/U vs non-conference competition.

In last year's INAUGURAL season of the CBI Tournament, 2ND ROUND games averaged 148.8 PPG... and went 3-1 O/U in the process. In this season's 1ST ROUND, #1 SEEDS (like STANFORD) went 3-1 O/U as well.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Tommy the Swami

Boston - 15.5

Boston playing with revenge for an embarrassing loss as a double digit road favorite at LA less than a month ago. The Celts have proven they will show mercy at the Garden,as they have covered 4 of their 5 in Boston the last 13 seasons as a 15 to 18 pt fav. This could get ugly.LAC -1-12 ATS off BB non-conf gms- 8-21 ATS vs Atlantic Div - 11-34 ATS playing their 3rd gm in 4 days  Bost 40-20 ATS off win by 15+ pts

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jrtips

NUGGETS vs. SUNS

The Denver Nuggets(45-25) open their final road trip of the season playing some of their best basketball of the season, and looking to increase their Northwest Division lead. Now the Nuggets have to play at the US Airways Center tonight facing a surging Phoenix Suns team that's won eight straight home games in the series. Denver owns a one-game lead over Portland in the division and will be going for its season-best sixth consecutive victory. During their winning streak, J.R. Smith is scoring 21.6 points per game and shooting 47.4 percent from 3-point range after he scored a season-high 40 points in the Nuggets' 116-105 win over Washington on Friday. In Denver's two matchups with Phoenix this season, Smith is averaging 21.0 points on 40.0 percent shooting (8-of-20) from beyond the arc. Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony missed the Nuggets' 119-113 overtime win over the visiting Suns on Jan. 15 with a broken bone in his right hand. Nuggets forward Nene is averaging 18.5 points and 14.5 rebounds versus Phoenix this season and low-post mate Chris Andersen, is averaging 6.8 points, 8.1 boards and 3.1 blocks in his last 13 games. Phoenix (38-31) defeated Washington 128-96 on Saturday and has won a season-best four in a row to keep pressure on Dallas, which holds a 3 1/2-game lead for the final playoff spot. Shaquille O'Neal had 13 points against the Wizards. O'Neal sat out the Jan. 15th loss to Denver in a night off, but averaged 16.3 points and 13.0 rebounds in his previous four games against the Nuggets.Steve Nash has 13 double-doubles in his last 17 games versus Denver, averaging 18.5 points with 11.1 assists during that stretch. These two teams both strive playing that up-style type of basketball as they have athletic scorers on both sides of the ball. Both teams are playing well and need tonight's win for the playoff race. These teams scored 232 points without the services of Shaquille O'Neal and Carmelo Anthony so with these two star players in the lineup tonight, there will be no shortage of points.TAKE OVER 237

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Re: Monday Service Plays

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION



Game: Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ Bradley Braves

(638) Bradley Braves (-3)



The Braves offense struggle in their opening round win against Austin Peay, but that was understandable considering they had an eleven day lay off before that game. Look for Bradley's Chris Roberts and Dodie Dunson to do a good job on shutting down Oakland's Erik Kangas who is in the top five in the nation in three point shooting. Oakland is prone to defensive lapses and I look for the Braves to take advantage. Lay the points.



2009 Free Selections Record  43-38  (53.1%)

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