Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

VEGAS EXPERTS

Michigan at Oklahoma

Let's go with the upset here, noting that Michigan is 7-1 ATS in non-conference play, including wins over Duke and UCLA. Every year, a #2 seed falls in the Round of 32 and looking at this year's quartet, Oklahoma appears the most vulnerable. The Sooners are a depth shy team and F Griffin does not appear to be 100%. Wolverines HC John Beilein is an incredible 9-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games. Grab the points.

Play on: Michigan

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LT Profits

Villanova -2

Both the Villanova Wildcats and the UCLA Bruins were a bit sloppy in the first round of this tournament, but the bottom line is that Villanova is the better team from the better conference, and the fact that this game is being played in their second home makes this a rather obvious call.

Villanova is 14-2 at home this season while winning by an average of +14.6 points per game. This is significant because the Wildcats played several of those home games right here in Wachovia Center. Sure, that gives them a rather unfair advantage here, but that does not mean we as bettors cannot take advantage of this. Furthermore, the Wildcats accumulated those gaudy home numbers while playing in the deepest conference in the country.

On the flip side, UCLA has been rather ordinary away from home this season, going 9-6 compared to their 17-2 home mark. Even more distressing is the fact that the Bruins are under .500 against the spread away from home, going 6-8-1 ATS while only outscoring their road opponents by a miniscule +1.3 points, and their task will be even tougher here as we believe Villanova represents a huge jump in class from the teams UCLA usually visits.

The only thing that bothers us is that this line looks too easy, but then again, a lot of that has to do with UCLA being overrated, so we will bite on Villanova at a bargain price at home.

Pick: Villanova -2

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nelly

LSU + over North Carolina

North Carolina dominated in round one but the competition takes a huge leap in the second round with a very strong LSU team. The Tigers were easily the top team in the SEC and this is a veteran team with great guard play. The Tigers will be at a disadvantage inside as UNC has great size but with a less than 100 percent Ty Lawson for the Heels, LSU should have the edge in the backcourt. North Carolina's defense has been suspect all season long and against a team with strong guard play the opportunities will be there. In recent games teams like Maryland, NC State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, guards have caused problems for UNC and the Tar Heels have been an atrocious ATS team this season. North Carolina is just 6-15 ATS in the last 21 games and as one of the most public teams in the country the Tar Heels are continually overvalued. Even if Lawson is completely healthy the team could be a bit out of sync and the Tar Heels did not play its best ball down the stretch and early indications are not favorable for Lawson. UNC does catch a favorable venue but this was not a strong ATS team at home and LSU is not a team that is likely to be blown out.

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Dave Price

1 Unit Knicks/Magic UNDER 215

This one stays under because of how good Orlando is defensively at home, allowing just 91.7 ppg. Plus, Orlando is 20-6 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 104.9, OPPONENT 92.9 in these games. Also, Orlando is 11-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was ORLANDO 100.6, OPPONENT 95.2. I'll bet the Under.

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Yankee Capper

NHL
Toronto/Montreal Over 6
Vancouver/Phoenix Over 5.5

NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
Chicago Bulls +4

NCAA HOOPS
LSU/UNC Over 158
Michigan/Oklahoma Under 135
Villanova -2.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Evan Altemus

Selection: WESTERN KENTUCKY +11

This game is a match-up of two very hot teams. However, I feel that Gonzaga is slightly over-rated here. The Bulldogs werent particularly impressive against Akron in the 1st round, which is notable given how weak the MAC is this season. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky was very impressive against Illinois, controlling the game by double digits for a good portion of the game. The Hilltoppers have excellent guard play and balanced scoring, which will make defending them a very difficult job for Gonzaga. In addition, even though that several players left from last years tournament team, a bulk of this year?s team got experience playing in the tournament last year. Therefore, they have the confidence of knowing that they were here last year, so the Hilltoppers know that they have capability to make another deep run. Gonzaga is being priced like a top five team here, however I feel that they are a step below the best teams in the country. Particularly in the way they were absolutely blown out by Memphis, as well as allowing UCONN to fly the whole way across the country and still beat them at home. Look for Western Kentucky to keep this game close throughout.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Texas at Duke
Play: Texas

Duke is 2-8 ATS their last 10 Big Dance games and they are 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 Saturday games. The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as favorites of 7.0 to 12.5 points and they are 2-9 ATS their last 11 games as Big Dance favorites. Texas is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games as underdogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points. The Longhorns are 12-2 ATS off a win by twenty or more points. Rick Barnes team will be in this game right to the end. PLAY ON TEXAS +

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Atlanta Hawks

Oftentimes the best value with a team in the NBA is when they’re on the road as the point spread tends to get too much shading toward the home team. In other words, if the Hawks were hosting the Cavaliers here, Cleveland would likely be laying a very small number but we’ll be very comfortable grabbing a large number of points in this match-up since the Hawks are at Cleveland. One of the keys here is that the Cavaliers have continued to win games so they’re getting a lot of respect from odds makers and bettors alike. What is somewhat “hidden” here is that many of the wins are coming by tight margins and so there is value right now in going against Cleveland.

From March 1st through March 16th the Cavaliers went 8-1 and yet six of those eight wins came by single digit margins. In fact, Cleveland’s average margin in those six wins was less than five points per victory. This included a one point win at Atlanta on March 1st! That makes this a revenge game for the Hawks and it is also is likely to be a point spread filled with value! This is also a tough scheduling spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers are off of big games with Orlando Tuesday and Portland Thursday. Also, the Cavs have a road game on deck at New Jersey tomorrow. The Hawks should definitely be able to test Cleveland in this spot! Atlanta, through games of March 16th, had a five game winning streak in place and the last four losses the Hawks have suffered have come by an average margin of just 3 points per defeat. They definitely are playing their best basketball of the season as of games through March 16th and they will be up for LeBron James and Company in this spot! Not only is that because of LeBron, it’s also because this is the only game the Hawks have against a conference opponent from March 14th to March 26th. With the Hawks trying to cling to the #4 spot in the conference plus having revenge here, Atlanta is absolutely going to be a “tough out” for the Cavs to “put away” here. Consider a small play on the HAWKS on Saturday afternoon.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

UCLA +2' vs Villanova, at Philadelphia, PA 

With both teams nearly getting eliminated in their opening round contests, it's safe to say they'll both be focused in this one (can you say wake-up call!). I'll admit there's a distinct advantage to playing in Philadelphia for the Wildcats, but that's where their "edges" begin and end, as a focused Bruins team is the superior squad in this match, and it'll show.

First things first, let's be clear: As far as their opening round games, I would be worried a lot more about Villanova than UCLA. You see, VCU is no pushover, they were playing great down the stretch and also happened to match up well with Maynor and Sanders. The same cannot be said for American, who comes to us out of the sorry-ass Patriot League, and we can all agree is a step below VCU. In other words, which team appeared more vulnerable Thursday? Clearly it was Villanova.

The biggest advantage the Bruins have is their outstanding defense, which we saw in full force in the 1st half of Thursday's win over VCU. Look for them to keep their focus for the entire game this afternoon, bringing their lockdown D (60 ppg on 40% shooting L5 games) to Philly this afternoon. Nova also thrives on its defense, but the fact they're allowing 10 more ppg over the same 5-game span has to have their backers worried!

Finally, one match up I expect to make all the difference is Alfred Aboya vs Dante Cunningham. Aboya is an outstanding defender, and his ability to slow down the Wildcats leading scorer will be key, especially after watching Scottie Reynolds struggle mightily over his last 2 games (averaging just 5 ppg over that span)! In the end, I believe UCLA can exploit the same flaws American did Thursday, namely an inconsistent defense that's vulnerable from the perimeter (note: UCLA shoots 40% from 3-point on season), as the Bruins take care of business Saturday afternoon!

Take UCLA plus the points over Villanova in this college hoops match up.

2♦ UCLA

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

EZ'S FREE SELECTION


Game: Baylor Bears @ Virginia Tech Hokies



(8342Virginia Tech Hokies (-4)


The run and gun style of the Bears plays right into the hands of Virginia
Tech. Baylor will not be able to match the play of Virginia Tech in the
paint and on the boards. The Bears have had a nice run at the end of
the season, but it ends today. Lay the points.



2009 Free Selections Record  43-36  (54.4%)

=================================================

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
226 - 154 run  60 %

Saturday   UCLA

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tony George

Villanova -1.5

UCLA struggled to get in this round and the PAC 10 is a weak conference compared the Big East and the Wildcats are battle tested.  The KEY in this game is the frontcourt and Nova has it.  UCLA had a 1 point win over a average VCU team and with this game in front of a pro Nova crowd, I expect the fast running Wildcats to atone for a bad game against American University, where they failed to show up until the last 7 minutes of the game.  It will not happen again.  UCLA has great balance but  at days end, less than a bucket to cover as a favorite is worth the stretch.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Memphis -9 vs Maryland

Memphis played very poorly in their opening round game vs CS-Northridge but the No. 2 Tigers did extend their winning streak to 26 consecutive games with 81-70 victory. The surprising star was reserve guard Roburt Sallie, who entered the game with a 4.5 PPG average. Sallie came off the bench to rally second-seeded Memphis past Northridge, making 10-of-15 from three-point range (12-of-17 on FGs), setting a Memphis record for an NCAA game with 35 points. No one in NCAA tournament history had ever hit 10 threes in an opening round game. Maryland, a No. 10 seed, played very well in its first game, beating Cal, 79-65. The 6-6 Vazquez (17.5-5.5-5.0) led the way with 27 points, which came as no surprise. Since scoring 35 points, grabbing 11 rebounds and handing out 10 assists when Maryland upset North Carolina 88-85 back on Feb 21, Vazquez is averaging 21.7 PPG. He's joined in the starting backcourt by Hayes (10.3-3.3 APG) and freshman guard, Mosley (5.2-3.7). Maryland's frontcourt starters are a pair of 6-7 players, Milbourne (11.5-7.3) and Neal (8.5-4.3). The bench is not very deep with Bowie (9.0) playing on the perimeter and the 6-7 Gregory (2.6-3.2) being the only frontcourt reserve of note. One wonders how Maryland will be able to match up with the Memphis duo of Dozier (12.6-7.2) and Taggert (10.4-7.5), who are 6-9 and 6-10, respectively. Freshman Evans (16.6-5.4-3.8) may not be the "second-coming" of Derrick Rose but he's close. Swingman Anderson (10.3-4.9-4.3) and guard Mack (8.7) were both, like Dozier and Taggert, part of LY's team which lost to Kansas in the national championship game. Memphis got its 'scare' in the first round and Calipari's team will be looking for some respect in this one, meaning the Tigers want a blowout win! Lay it.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Gina

Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls

Los Angeles has won and covered the spread in five of the last six battles against Chicago, including two of three at United Center. However, Chicago needs this game hanging on to eighth and final playoff spot in the East and have played tough at home.The Bulls are 7-0 both straight-up and against the spread in their last 7 home games. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Look for the Bulls to make this a close hard fought battle. Take the points! The underdog in this series is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Chicago Bulls +4

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Johnny Guild

Memphis Tigers -9
Texas A&M Aggies +10
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +10.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

RJ Robbins

Texas A&M vs. Connecticut
Play: Texas A&M +10.5

We will grab the points and take the Aggies. TAM handled BYU for the second straight year in their game on Thursday, while U-Conn had a cakewalk .vs UT-Chat. Texas A&M is 18-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, while U-Conn is 3-11 ATS in road games when playing against a good team, after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Plus TAM is a money making 10-2 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last 2 seasons. Take TEXAS A&M+10.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Ryan

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -4
         
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on The Lakers as they travel to face Chicago slated to start at 8:35. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-19 ATS for 67% winners since 1996. Play against dogs in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams hitting 76-79% and is a hot shooting team with 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots. Lakers are also 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Lakers.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

3G SPORTS

Take the points with Texas A&M

The  Huskies dominating win over an under-talented Chattanooga game this spread got stretched a little bit and shows a little value by taking the Aggies. I've been impressed with how A&M has been playing. They easily took care of BYU in the first round which was a surprise after losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament, but prior to that had won six straight including wins over Missouri and Texas. The Aggies do a decent job of shooting the three, and the Huskies perimeter defense hasn't been the same since the loss of Dyson.

PREDICTION: 71-66

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