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SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
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Game: UCLA at Villanova Mar 21 2009 1:05PM
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on UCLA as they take on Villanova slated to start at 1:05 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that UCLA will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-12 ATS for 76% winners since 1997. Play on any team that is a good offensive team scoring 74-78 PPG facing a good defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG and after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games. AiS shows a 95% probability that UCLA will get between 34 and 39 rebounds in this game. Note that UCLA is a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game this season. They are also a very strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better since 1997. I also like an optional and alternative wager splitting the 15* amount into a 10* amount on the game line and a 5* amount on the first half line. Since this is a huge 15* play there is NO advantage to adding even more investment. My program is designed for the long haul and has served us very well over 16 years so never do we ever want to load up our success on just a few 15* games. Take UCLA
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3-Unit PlayTake Atlanta +8 Over Cleveland
3-Unit Play Take New York +11 ½ Over Orlando
4-Unit Play Take Chicago +4 Over LA Lakers
6 Unit Play.Take Florida -110 over Columbus
Florida gets Columbus at home fighting for that last spot in the eastern conference race. After a flat effort earlier in the week vs the Capitols the Panthers bounced back to beat the Maple Leafs 3-1 breaking a four game losing streak. Florida can't afford to come out flat and to get points in your home building becomes heighten this time of the year. Columbus comes into Florida looking in good shape for the playoffs for their first time in franchise history winners of seven of their last eleven, the Blue Jackets are off a see-saw win vs the Blackhawks and get the Panthers in desperate mode. I think Florida understands the importance of these points with a tough game on deck vs Carolina. I made this number slight higher at Florida being a thirty cent favorite, so I will back the Panthers here tonight.
4 units Oklahoma
3 units Memphis
3 units Western Kentucky
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Big Dance 5000 Dime Tournament Games of the Year - Early Edition
UCLA (145) vs Villanova (-2) @ Philadelphia
In what will be a like a home game this afternoon at the Wachovia Center in Philly, Jay Wright's Wildcats will give Ben Howland's Bruins a dose of their own tough-as-nails defense medicine as Villanova pulls away and blasts this UCLA bunch. The Bruins have failed to cover in two straight after just barely surviving against VCU Thursday night. It will be a different story against this Nova team that plays tough, physical defense and will get after this at times offensively-challenged UCLA team. The Bruins can play good defense, too, but they have not been as stout in that department as in recent years as witnessed by UCLA allowing its opponents to make 44.4% percent of their shots this year including 36.3% from beyond the arc. The Cats have three top-notch guards and this team can sink the trey. They've won seven of their last nine straight-up and while UCLA went just 4-7 ATS this year on one day rest, Nova went 10-5 ATS its last 15 versus teams with winning records. The home crowd helped Nova in its second half comeback over American Thursday and they'll be there again to support unsung senior forward Dante Cunningham and the Wildcats as Villanova blows out the Bruins in the second half.
VILLANOVA (-2) 5000 Dime High Roller
Texas A&M (+10) vs UConn (139') @ Philadelphia
UConn just hasn't looked the same since losing floor general Jerome Dyson to a season-ending knee injury and the Huskies will not be able to cover this big number today. In fact, I expect coach Mark Turgeon's Aggies to make the winning plays down the stretch and to win this one outright. The well-balanced Aggies whipped BYU on Thursday and are now on runs of 7-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. They played in the rugged Big 12, which produced two No. 3 seeds and one second-seed for this tournament. Last year they lost to UCLA in the second round in Anaheim. Two years ago they beat Louisville in Lexington. This is a solid team that has covered seven of its last eight Big Dance games and went 10-3 ATS as a dog this year. They've covered three of four against Big East competition and 12 of their last 16 neutral court games, Meanwhile, the Dyson-less Huskies no longer have their best on-ball defender and they got a free pass in the first round in facing a horrid UTC team. Overconfident, UConn, which had dropped two straight on the scoreboard while failing to cover in three straight and six of seven before Thursday, will quickly find that the bulky Aggies will bang with the Huskies inside. Look for big games from both Donald Sloan and Josh Carter as A&M pulls the upset later today.
TEXAS A&M (+10) 5000 Dime High Roller
Maryland (131') vs Memphis (-9) @ Kansas City
Here's the deal, outside of Roburt Sallie and his 35 points off the bench, not one Memphis Tiger played up to his potential in the Tigers' opening round win over scrappy Cal State-Northridge. John Calipari's club will not turn in two straight clunkers and the Tigers, winners of 26 straight and 32-3 SU and 21-12 ATS this year, will steamroll this Maryland team that leans way, way too much on one player. Maryland's Greivis Vasquez will see plenty of Tyreke Evans and the Tigers today and the Terps' season comes to a close. Maryland is just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS on one or less days rest this year and the much deeper and much more athletic Tigers will win this game by at least 15 points.
MEMPHIS (-9) 100 Dimes
Michigan (+6') vs Oklahoma (137) @ Kansas City
The bottom line is that this is just too many points for Oklahoma to cover as the Sooners depend on one player way too much. Of course that one player, Blake Griffin, is a stud, but Michigan is used to playing grind-it-out games in the Big Ten with lots of banging inside. The Sooners got past Morgan State on Thursday, but are still just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and on a 6-9 ATS slide when playing on one or less day's rest. John Beilein's Wolverines have covered seven of their last eight non-conference games and did beat the likes of Duke and UCLA this year. Their quirky offense and unorthodox 1-3-1 zone defense will give the Sooners fits and DeShawn Sims and the Wolverines will easily stay inside this number.
MICHIGAN (+6') 100 Dimes
Purdue (139') vs Washington (-1') @ Portland - 5:40 pm EST
Purdue took advantage of a home crowd advantage in Indianapolis last week to win the Big Ten tournament championship, and Washington will take advantage of a home crowd advantage Saturday at the Rose Garden in Portland to win and cover and move onto the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers went 0-2 SU/ATS as a dog this year while Jon Brockman and the Huskies have won four straight and are 7-3 ATS playing on one days rest this season. Washington has a decided edge in the backcourt with Justin Dentmon and Isaiah Thomas the Pac-10 regular season champs will make the plays down the stretch to score this second round win and cover.
WASHINGTON (-1') 100 Dimes
LSU (+11) vs North Carolina (157') @ Greensboro
As per the norm, the Tar Heels are being asked to cover too many points and they will again come up short covering this steep impost. UNC has losing spread marks this year overall, as a favorite and is just 4-10 ATS its last 14 versus teams with winning records. And of course, the status of ACC Player of the Year Ty Lawson is still uncertain as even if he and his much-talked about jammed big toe can go, he will be nowhere near 100 percent. The SEC regular season champion Tigers felt slighted by their seeding for this tournament, but make no mistake, the Bayou Bengals can play. Conference Player of the Year Marcus Thornto will come big as will upperclassmen Garrett Temple and Tasmin Mitchell as the Tigers keep this one close.
LSU (+11) 100 Dimes
Western Kentucky (143') vs Gonzaga (-10') @ Portland
The Hilltoppers won a below average Sun Belt tournament title this year and took advantage of an injured Illinois team Thursday, but Western Kentucky's season comes to a halt tonight as Gonzaga wins this game by at least 15 points. Last year the Bulldogs routed WKU by the tune of 74-51 as the taller and more technically skilled Zags will again handle this Hilltopper team that will not catch Gonzaga off guard. Plenty of Bulldog faithful will be on hand from nearby Spokane and Mark Few's Bulldogs will dominate in the pain in covering this number.
GONZAGA (-10') 100 Dimes
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Las Vegas Insider-CBB (7-3 run in tourney games s/Mar 10)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Washington at 5:40 ET. Matt Painter has led the Boilermakers to three straight NCAA tourneys. The previous two seasons, he's won his opener and then lost in the second round. Is Purdue destined for a similar fate this year? I believe so. The Boilermakers got no favors being sent to Portland, where they'll have to face a Washington Husky team with a strong regional following. Purdue started strong vs Northern Iowa on Thursday but struggled down the stretch, holding on for a five-point win. Last year's star freshman have all responded well as sophomores, as the trio of guard Moore (14.0-4.7), the 6-10 Johnson (13.2-5.5) and the 6-8 Hummel (12.1-6.8) are again the team's top players (Hummel was the Big 10 tourney map). Junior guard Kramer (5.1-2.5 APG) was named the Big 10's defensive p-o-y and 5-9 freshman Jackson (5.6-3.5 APG) rounds out the starting lineup. The 6-9 Calasan (6.5-3.0) provides frontcourt depth, with Grant (7.9) and Green (4.1) contributing in the backcourt. Purdue is also an excellent defensive team and when "hitting on all cylinders," may actually be almost as good as its press clippings. I like this Purdue team but it has shown a tendency to underachieve. I DON'T like them here, vs an underrated Washington team. The Huskies went 14-4 and won the Pac 10 title outright, for the first time since 1953. The 6-7 Brockman (14.7-11.3) has "stuck it out" for all four years in Seattle (last two seasons were NO fun) and it's time this tireless worker gets rewarded. He's joined in the frontcourt by the 6-6 Pondexter (11.8-5.8), who had a season-high 23 points in the win over Miss St (Brockman had 10-15) and 6-8 freshman Gant (3.1-3.4). The starting guards are freshman Thomas (15.2-3.1-2.6) and senior Dentmon (14.7-2.5 APG). The versatile 6-8 Amaning (6.2-4.12) is the first player of fthe bench, while sophomore Overton (5.9) and freshman Turner (3.6) add depth in the backcourt. Washington was in a good spot vs Miss St on Thursday, as the Bulldogs were forced to make a long trip after needing four wins in four days to capture the SEC tourney. What I find really impressive by Washington's 13-point win, is that BOTH Thomas and Dentmon were AWFUL (combined 4-of-19 on FGs, including 0-for-7 on threes), yet the Huskies won comfortably. Washington is fourth in the nation in rebounding margin (plus-8.3) and Brockman and Co. really never "stop working." As for Thomas and Dentmon, expect this backcourt duo to "return to form" in this one. Washington got a great break in playing this weekend's games in Portland and the Huskies won't let this great opportunity get away. Las Vegas Insider on Washington.
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play.Take the Memphis Tigers -9 over the Maryland Terrapins
I took a Pass on Monday in cbb as there were no games, so today we will roll with 2 plays to average out to our 7 plays a week (1 cbb pod per day). If you wait on this play, you could get -8.5 or better as the line keeps dropping. I understand that Memphis had a horrible first round game. This is why I like them even more in this contest. I actually like Maryland as a team overall. What Coach Gary has done with this crop of players is remarkable and this is the best coaching job I think Gary has done ever with the talent level that he had. But, these boys have come together extremely well and too care of busienss against a sound Cal team. I can't see Memphis playing as horrible as they did in Round 1 however. If I know Calipari, although he looked relieved by not being the first ever #1 seed to go down to a #16 seed, I can only imagine he lights a fire in the ass of his players today. Remember, this team, regardless of the fact they had a terrible game, still managed to somehow win the C.S. Northridge game by 11. Let's be honest, for anyone that was watching that game, the officiating was horrendous. Memphis was in foul trouble early and often and Dozier had a terrible game as well. If it wasn't for Sallie and his 30+ points, this team would be home by now and on national headlines for the wrong reasons. Maryland at times struggles against teams who can put up a lot of points on the road. Remember, this team lost 44-85 on the road to Duke, lost 48-75 on neutral footing to Georgetown, lost 59-81 on neutral footing to Gonzaga and lost 64-93 to Clemson on the road. So, Maryland does struggle against teams that can score at such prowess. Memphis shot 12-21 (57.1%) from the line and I expect them to do a bit better, the size of Memphis should certainly come into play as Maryland does not a great deal of bigs to stack up - especially if they get into foul trouble - and I can't imagine Mack going 0-7 from the field and Dozier going 2-7 from the field. I have the Tigers winning this game by 13-17 points today as I just don't think Maryland has the firewpower to compete and I like the fact that Memphis comes off a terrible round one performance. Having said this, props to Coach Gary on taking his team to the final 32 - really an impressive coaching job. The Memphis Tigers are 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss.
4 Unit Play. Take Michigan +6.5 over Oklahoma
You will need some tums for this game - I understand that. But, we have a nice opportunity to cash here with Michigan as long as the refs don't completely hose us. Michigan is an extremely well coached team that I believe is hitting its stride at the right moment. If this is an ugly, low scoring game, which is what it might very well be, our team should do just fine. Remember, Michigan beat UCLA earlier this year 55-52 on neutral footing, got revenge against Duke at home and shoots a striking 75.6% from the line. I never try to knock the competition I am going against and I won't start now. I will say that although Oklahoma is a sound team, they come off a huge win over Morgan State in front of the public eye. In fact, this is the biggest public play on the board in the Tourney today. Let me ask you something...you think the biggest play on the board for the Tourney today - a saturday - has a great shot at covering? With over 72% of the public on Oklahoma, hammering the play, the line opening up at +8 off-shore and now sitting at +6.5, it makes for a nice opportunity to take the dog here in the Wolverines. Yes, it is an ugly dog - a mutt if you will. But, Michigan is very scrappy and fiery. This team plays with a lot of heart and if Oklahoma gets into foul trouble early or if this is a low-scoring contest, we are in great shape here as the public gets buried. The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 4-1 ATS as a dog and Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS when facing teams with a winning % of greater than 60%. This is a nice cushion for Michigan as I believe they likely lose by a possession or two. I have Michigan winning this game at a 25% shot as well
4 Unit Play. Take the Chicago Bulls +4 over the L.A. Lakers
We are 3-2 on the week in the NBA and I'm looking forward to our NBA Selection today on the Bulls. Like I always say, I never knock the opponent and of course, the Lakers are a solid ballclub. But, I have faded the Lakers at certain times in the year given the situation. This is one such case. The Bulls are on a roll right now. The trade for Salmons has certainly worked out as I beleive the Chicago Bulls are now one of the five deepest teams in the NBA - yes, the Bulls. Here is who the Bulls feature:
Now, other teams have 8 players that regularly play. But others team do not have the caliber of these 8 players. Can you find me 8 players who see action for a team who were all regular starters for several years running in either this team or another team? You will be hard pressed to do so. This new look is making a difference as this team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 having defeated the Celtics, Hornets and Rockets in that process. Let's ride the Bulls at home today as nearly 80% of the public likes the Lakers here, I like our revenge angle, the fact that we get the Bulls +4 on a Saturday night with a team that is in the playoff hunt, has covered 4 straight and 8-2 ATS over their last 10.
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Phoenix as they host Vancouver slated to start at 10:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-5 making 29.4 units for 82% winners and with the average dog play at +150 since 1996. Play against road favorites against the money line that are good offensive teams scoring 2.85+ goals/game on the season in the 2nd half of the season and after 4 straight wins by 2 goals or more. Take Phoenix