Monday Service Plays

Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

(Power Angle Play)

Texas/ Baylor Over 146.5

The Over is 12-3 in Bears last 15 games as a road underdog and 14-4-1 in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the Over is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 games as a favorite. Both of these offenses have been very good this year, as tey Bears come in averaging 77.6 ppg overall, while the Longhorns have averaged 73 ppg this year. Baylor's offense has slipped a bit lately, but they still average 73.9 ppg in the Big 12 and 72 ppg on the road overall. Texas has scored 76.4 ppg at home this year, including 81 ppg in their last 5 big 12 home games. Defense has not been a fortay of the Bears this year as they have allowed 72.1 pg overall, including 77.8 ppg in their last 10 games, plus they have allowed 78.9 ppg on the road this year. The Longhorns have played decent defense this year overall, but they have really struggled in their last 6 games as they have allowed 74.9 ppg over that stretch, plus the Longhorns have allowed 70.3 ppg in their Big 12 games. Baylor's road games have averaged 150.9 ppg, while Texas' last 6 games have put up 152.8 ppg. Also we note that the Over is 5-2 the last 7 in this series, with an average of 150.7 ppg, while 3 of the last 4 played here have gone over the total, with an average of 152.8 being scored. Both defenses are struggling right now and that should allow both teams a chance at 75+ points in this one. I see a game in the mid 150's

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- The Over is 14-4 when Baylor is revenging a loss vs an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Average points scored is 161.5 ppg. 


3 UNIT PLAY

NOTRE DAME -3 over Villanova

The Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss, while the Fighting Irish are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Durning the middle of the season Notre Dame lost 7 games in a row, but somehow a win here and then vs St Johns and Notre Dame could find their way into the big dance. The Irish have played well vs the Cats of late as they have taken 4 of the last 7 outright and are 5-1-1 ATS in those games. Notre Dame has really showed their urgency down the stretch as they are 4-2 in their last 6 games and almost knocked off the powerful Huskies in their last game. Notre Dame has been a solid home team all year long as they are 11-2 overall and have outscored those opponents by 16.1 ppg, while they are 5-2 in their Big East home games and have outscored those opponents by 6.9 ppg. The Cats come in with a 3-2 SU mark in their last 5 games, but just 1-4 ATS in those games, which shows me they are not playing that well at the moment. In those 5 games the Cats struggled with Rutgers and Depaul, were destroyed by West Virginia and were upset on their home floor vs a reeling Georgetown squad. Not very impressive. Their only good game was a 3 point win at Syracuse. Notre Dame is playing very inspired ball right now and they need this one a whole lot more than the Cats, so look for Harangody and McAlarney to lead the Irish to the big win here. Notre Dame by 7+ in this one.   


2 UNIT PLAYS

Citadel -5.5 over GEORGIA SOUTHERN

The Bulldogs are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 road games and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 vs. Southern, while the Eagles are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 vs. Southern. I have really had the pulse of the Citadel team this year as I am 6-1 when picking a game involving them this year. That lone loss was their last game when I had them -5 vs Wofford. Prior to that loss by the Bulldogs they had won 11 in a row, including wins at Davidson and Charleston. The Bulldogs are a very solid 14-5 in conference play and have outscored their opponents by 5.9 ppg. This is a team tat plays very solid defense as they have allowed 64.6 ppg overall (94th), including allowing just 62.4 ppg in conference play. The Bulldogs have put up 68.6 ppg in conference play and should have good success vs this weak eagles defense.  The Georgia Southern offense has been decent this year averaging 70.9 ppg, but they have had major problems at the other end of the floor as they have allowed 78.7 ppg overall (334th), including 77.7 ppg in league play. The Eagles come in with a 1-10 mark in their last 11 games and have been outscored by 13.1 ppg in those games, plus they are just 4-15 in league play overall and have been outscored by 7.7 ppg in the process. A win here by the Citade will give them their first 20 win season in a long time and they should get it with little resistance from the Eagles here. Bulldogs by 10+. 

TEXAS -8 over Baylor


1 UNIT PLAY

Citadel/ Georgia Southern Over 140.5

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Re: Monday Service Plays

John Ryan

Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado as they travel to face the NY Islanders slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-15 making 23.7 units since 2003. Play on road teams against the money line after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal losing team posting a win percentage of 40% to 49% playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 50-17 making 27.9 units since 1996. Play on road favorites against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season in the second half of the season. Islanders are not in a good position for this game noting they are just 5-18 against the money line (-11.5 Units) against horrible power play killing teams with the opposition scoring on >19% of chances this season. Take Colorado.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

Simple thought process here: How in the world can Texas be laying this kind of impost with the way it is playing right now: Not only did the Longhorns lose 68-59 at Oklahoma State on Saturday, but they’ve dropped five of their last seven overall, going 2-7 ATS in the last nine.

Granted, Baylor has been enduring its own pointspread issues, failing to cover in nine of its last 12 overall and 12 of the last 15. But the Bears haven’t been THIS big of an underdog all season long. And, yes, the Longhorns have dominated this rivalry from a final-score standpoint, winning 23 in a row against Baylor, However, the last six meetings (including one this year) have been very competitive. Texas’ victory margins were by 6, 5, 8, 4, 1 and 5 points. I’ll do the math for you: That’s six games (including this year’s 78-72 contest that the ‘Horns won at Baylor) decided by a total of 29 points!

Throw in the fact that Texas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 home games, has just two double-digit Big 12 wins all season and is the team with a ton of pressure going into this contest, and I’m all over the undervalued underdog.

3♦ BAYLOR

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Craig Davis

Look, I’ll be the first to tell you when I’m on a roll, but I’ll also be honest with and tell you that the last four days have been the worst of my life. I’ve never seen anything like this. Some bad calls on my part combined with some really bad beats and I’m completely stunned. The two pieces of good news are: 1) I ALWAYS bounce back in a big way off a cold streak and 2) My free plays are on fire. I’ve won five straight free selections (Kansas – winner on Sunday) and eight of the last 11. That’s no mistake! That tells me that I’m due for an incredible bounce back and it starts tonight. I’ll prove it to you with yet another free play winner on Elon College.

Davidson has already wrapped up the Southern Division Conference regular season title and the #1 seed in the conference tourney, so what do they really have to play for tonight?

You see, when the season comes down to this point we often make bad calls on teams that really don’t care about playing in anything other than a tournament game.

Davidson fits this scenario to a T. What can they prove by blowing out a bad Elon team? In fact, I believe they will rest most of their starters in the second half to make sure they are fully ready for the conference tourney.

Elon, conversely, is trying to tweak a few things before they get ready for the conference tourney and with this being senior night, you can bet they’ll give the crowd the absolute best they have to offer.

No doubt Davidson wins, but Elon will easily keep this game within 15 points, getting us FREE PLAY WINNER #6 in a row.

3♦ ELON

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Tony Weston

Today's Selection:

We missed yesterday as Wisconsin couldn’t close the deal as the Badgers end up costing us a Comp Play winner.

That’s fine because we’re getting back on track tonight as we’re heading to Big XII country where we’re taking Texas at home against visiting Baylor.

The Bears come into this game absolutely horrible lately, having covered only once in their last 10 games and going 0-5 ATS their last five games on the road. In that five-game road stretch Baylor has not won any game SU and has lost by an average of 12.4 points per game.

Tonight, the Bears enter as about an 8-point underdog and have to deal with a Texas team that is on a 3-game cover streak against Baylor.

Consider, too, that the Bears are 0-4 ATS their last four games when installed as an underdog and have not covered in any of their last five road games against teams with a winning home record.

Baylor will continue its woes as the Longhorns get over easily at home tonight. Take Texas at home in this one.

3♦ TEXAS

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Villanova at NOTRE DAME -3 

Several reasons to like the Irish in this spot, but let's start with the fact they're are definately in desperation mode! Notre Dame doesn't just want to win this game, they HAVE to win this game. Most people can agree, we knew they'd lose to the Huskies (although they hung around nicely and rewarded their backers with the cover), so there's no question this is their chance to impress the selection committee before a much easier match up with St. John's in the season finale.

Also of note, the Irish have won 4 of their last 6 games SU, and of those 6 games only their loss at West Virginia was ugly... So, let's not get too carried away fading this Irish squad, as they're clearly playing better basketball of late. For the most part, they've been solid at home, going 11-2 SU in South Bend, and again, if ever you'd expect them to circle the wagons, it would be tonight.

From a match up standpoint, I love the Irish's frontcourt in this one, as without a doubt, Harangody is the best player on the floor. And while Hillesand is hurt and most likely out, backup Tyrone Nash, who grabbed a career-high 9 boards against the Huskies has proven a capable replacement given playing time. What this game comes down to is backcourt play, and after watching both Irish guards McAlarney and Ayers shoot up brick after brick at Connecticut, I expect them to bounce back nicely on the friendly rims tonight at home.

Bottom line, fact of the matter is the Wildcats have punched their ticket and are in the uneviable task of trying to match a desperate Irish team's energy level, on the road no less! In the end, Notre Dame is back to playing quality ball, and I expect that'll be the difference in this must-win contest tonight on their home floor. Irish are the play here!

Take Notre Dame over Villanova in this college hoops match up.

2♦ NOTRE DAME

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Baylor at TEXAS -8 

Take Texas as the home chalk over Baylor tonight.

Texas has absolutely owned Baylor, winning 23 straight over their Big 12 rivals, including a 78-72 win back on January 27.

The Bears have the conference’s third-worst scoring defense and have allowed an average of 84.4 ppg during a five-game road losing streak.

Texas will honor seniors A. J. Abrams and Connor Atchley tonight in their final game at the Erwin Center.  Abrams is coming off a miserable 3-for-15 shooting effort in Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma State.

I expect the senior to bounce back in a big way against a soft Baylor defense.

Baylor is on ATS slides of 0-5 on the road, 1-9 in conference games, 1-4 after a SU win and 0-7 against teams with a winning record.

Texas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 on Monday.

Take Texas minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.

2♦ TEXAS

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Chris Jordan

Villanova at NOTRE DAME -3 

The only way to attack this Notre Dame team is with a staunch defense, and though Villanova ranks just eighth in the Big East in scoring defense, I trust Jay Wright is going to roll into this one looking to put the clamps on the Irish immediately.

I konw Notre Dame is the No. 1 team in the league in three-point field goal percentage, but with the pressure on in the middle, and the reins tightened on the perimeter, the Irish may not be able to fire up open-look shots from beyond the arc.

Now this may sound as if I'm siding with the Wildcats, but that's not the case because they've struggled on the road, and Notre Dame can lock up an at-large consideration into the Big Dance with a win tonight. Either way, both teams have reasons to show up for a huge win tonight.

With 'Nova, the under is on winning runs of 17-6 when the 'Cats are an underdog in this range, 22-8 when they're an underdog at any price and 16-6 when they come in off an ATS loss.

With the Irish, the low number is on streaks of 7-1 when they're the home favorite, 6-1 when they host teams that win on the road, 4-1 overall and at home and 10-3 when they're installed as the favorite.

1♦ Villanova/Notre Dame UNDER

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Re: Monday Service Plays

GINA

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

Cleveland has won five of the last eight meetings, but has not been successful in South Beach. The Cavaliers have dropped 10 of its last 11 versus the Heat at Miami and are just is 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in their last eight battles against Southeast Division opponents, while Miami is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus NBA Central. Take the points in a close fight. The underdog has won five of the last seven meetings.

Miami Heat +3½


Johnny Guild

Texas Longhorns -8


Mr A

Atlanta Hawks -4
Dallas Mavericks -6
San Antonio Spurs -8

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