Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers

Reason: In the NHL, you pretty much handicap spot and situation as much as you do teams. Tonight the Wild visit Edmonton after getting spanked last night in Calgary leaving Minny 2-5 in L7 and currently just 1-3 in the second of B2Bs. The Oilers ar slumping and nothing special but the home team has won the last seven games in the series and Edmonton has had a day to rest and stew over 1-0 home ice loss to Columbus. This is a very manageable number, take Edmonton

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Ryan

Clemson at Florida State
Prediction: Clemson

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Clemson over FSU slated to start at 2:00 EST. First, I have had a rough week in the College ranks and to admit that poor performance and to also make amends for those mistakes I have put together the most incredible card of my career. It includes THREE 10* Titan plays and FIVE 5* Monster plays. The 5* Monster plays are on the house and you only when the 10* net you a profit and I promise they will. FSU show very hot from the behind the arc in their last game and that sets them in a poor role for this critical game. FSU is just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1997. Clemson is a solid 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. FSU shot hot from the 3-point arc, but were just 39% for the game. That game was a loss to BC 72-67 putting them into a must win out condition to get into the Tournament. Clemson, based on my research and statistic PR ratings, may be the most under rated team in the ACC. They too need this game to gain a strong seeding for the ACC Tournament. Clemson is ?IN?, but I do not see any let down here in Tallahassee. Clemson has significant advantages in nearly all facets of this game and I would not be surprised to see this a double digit Tiger win.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LT Profits

Samford +6

The Samford Bulldogs and the Appalachian State Mountaineers play at completely different paces, but the generosity of the Appalachian defense always makes them a risky proposition laying this many points.

Yes, the Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 76.2 points per game here at home, but the problem has been that the defense is allowing a nearly identical 76.0 points on 45.1 percent shooting in this building, which accounts for their modest 7-6 straight up home record. The Mounties have been burning money for most of this season, going just 9-14-1 against the spread.

On the other hand, Samford is an impressive 14-8 ATS while playing more of a slowdown game. They were able to slow down Appalachian State at home in a 68-56 victory last month, and even though they are now on the road, that should not prevent the Bulldogs from running their methodical offense and their customary good defense.

Even if the Mountaineers to speed this game up a bit, we do not think that will be enough for the 19-point swing necessary from the first meeting that would prevent Samford from getting the cover.

Samford +6

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

5 UNIT PLAY (MAC GOY)

(Power Angle Play)

Western Michigan -1 over TOLEDO

The Broncos are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400, while teh Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Mid-American and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Neither team has been that good this year, but I really like the Broncos to get the job done here. WMU may be just 8-15 overall, but have played better in the MAC, with a 6-7 record and that record has them just one game behind division leading Ball State in the MAC West standings. The Broncos offense hasn't been that great this year as they are averaging just 61.1 ppg overall (306th), 60.2 ppg in the MAC and 58.2 ppg on  the road. The Broncos do a good job from the line also as they are 119th in FT% (70.3%)The thing that has kept them in most games has been their defense as they are 77th in points allowed (63.2 ppg), plus they have allowed just 61.4 ppg in the MAC and 60.2 ppg in their last 5 overall. The Toledo Rockets have had a really dreadful season as they have gone just 5-23 overall and 3-10 in MAC play. The Rockets offense is ranked even lower that the Broncos as they put up just 57.9 ppg overall (332nd). They are also 315th in 3pt FG% (30.5%) and 309th in shooting FT's (63.6%). On defense this team is middle of the national ranking (173rd) as they allow 67.5 ppg overall. In MAC play the Rockets have been outscored by 10.4 ppg as they averaged just 56.1 ppg and allow 66.5 ppg. From the numbers above you can see that the Broncos get a slim addvantage on offense, while they have a bigger advantage on defense and from the FT line. I Didn't include the numbers but the Broncos also have the rebounding edge. WMU is still in the thick of the MAC West race, so thye still have a ton to play for here, while the Rockets are already thinking about next year. Western Michigan by 8+ here.   

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- I'm 3-1 this year when I've combined a PA Play with a GOY or Month. W MICHIGAN is 16-2 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=20%) since 1997.


2 UNIT PLAY

VILLANOVA -6 over Georgetown

The Hoyas are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. Big East and  1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, while the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and  5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Boy the Cats really played a stinker of a game their last time out vs Depaul, but maybe a game vs better competition they will be a bit more focused. The Hoyas are a better team than Depaul, but they have really struggled this year, especially once the Big East schedule started. Georgetown is just 4-11 SU and 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games and thier only SU wins in their last 11 games were vs South Fla and Rutgers. The Cats are abouyt 8 notches above those teams. The Cats are heaeded the other way, as they have won 9 of their last 10 games and they have won 6 in a row at home in the Big East, with all 6 wins being by double digits. Villanova got a scare from Depaul the other night but that won't happen again, as they take the Hoyas down, rather easily.


1 UNIT PLAY

Butler/ Cleveland State UNDER 126

Two of the top defenses in the Horizon will meet today as Butler allows just 58.4 ppg, while State allows just 60.3 ppg. The Under is 7-2 the last 9 in the series, with an average of just 114.3 ppg being scored. I say go LOW here.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Houston at Chicago   
The Rockets have won six straight and are 9-3 ATS in Saturday games.  Houston is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 4.  Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1). 

Game 501-502: Orlando at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 122.833; Philadelphia 119.455
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-2); Over

Game 503-504: New York at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.888; Miami 119.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 215
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Oklahoma City at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 111.841; Memphis 115.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+4 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Houston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 125.989; Chicago 121.941
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 4; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 1; 198
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1); Over

Game 509-510: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.456; Milwaukee 119.678
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 9; 211 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 6 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-6 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Sacramento at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 109.162; Utah 127.312
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 18; 206 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 16 1/2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-16 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Charlotte at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.676; LA Clippers 109.534
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 6; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

EZWINNER.COM FREE SELECTION

Game: Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls +1


The Rockets are coming off of a big home win against Cleveland on Thursday, but now they travel to Chicago as a road favorite and they have struggled in this role. Houston is 0-6 against the spread in their last six games as a road favorite and the Bulls have been a solid when getting points posting a record of 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games as an underdog. With the addition of Brad Miller and John Salmons, the Bulls have a lot of talent and could be a dangerous team in the Eastern Conference. I look for them to pick up the win in this game. Take the points.


2009 Free Selections Record  33-25  (56.9%)


=================================================================


Free Selection from Totals4U
Saturday's free selection: Oklahoma City/Memphis over 202


=================================================================

I spread bet these below without taking any points:


Game 645-646: South Alabama at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 52.723; Troy 58.956
Dunkel Line: Troy by 6
Vegas Line: Troy by 4
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-4)

Troy by 9.5 = accuscore
===============================================

Game 601-602: George Washington at Richmond
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 49.868; Richmond 63.796
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 14
Vegas Line: Richmond by 7
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-7)

Richmond by accuscore = 14
=================================================

Game 593-594: Long Beach State at CS-Northridge
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 51.517; CS-Northridge 61.669
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 10
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 5
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-5)

CS-Northridge by 8.5 is accuscore
===================================================

Game 587-588: Texas at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 66.047; Oklahoma State 70.725
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-1)

Oklahoma State by 7.5 = accuscore
===================================================

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

JACK JONES

Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Washington

The Bucks put up a valiant effort last night to fall just a little bit short against the New Orleans Hornets, while the Wizards easily took care of the Chicago Bulls last night.  Washington has now won three of their last five games and have scored more than 107 points in each of the victories.  However, that game was at home, and the Wizards are just 4-23 this year away from DC, losing by an average of 10 ppg.  Milwaukee on the other hand has been a surprising 17-11 on their home floor and averaging a win by nearly 5 ppg.  The Bucks have covered four out of the last five times these two teams have played, and I see that string continuing here tonight.


Villanova -6.5 over Georgetown

This Georgetown team has packed it in for the year and has been a real disappointment at 14-12.  Villanova on the other hand is 14-1 at home and have won nine of their last 10 games.  They are coming off a close win against DePaul the other night, but who wouldn't be looking past that team right now.  The Hoyas on the other hand have won four straight games against Villanova, so Jay Wright isn't going to let his bunch take the recent Hoya downturn too seriously.  The Wildcats are much too athletic of a bunch, scoring 77.4 ppg while holding opponents under 67.  Georgetown won't have an answer for Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds here today.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

MyDreamBet

Pick - Orlando Magic -2

Tonight the Orlando Magic visit the Philadelphia 76ers. In this game the visiting team, the Magic, are given as favorites by the Spread of -2. The range of total points in the meeting is situated on 196.5 points.

This is a game between two teams that played last night and the results were quite different. On the one hand the Orlando Magic team was surprised by the Detroit Pistons defeated when playing at home by 96-85 and even the double-double of D. Howard with 21 points and 13 rebounds were enough to prevent this terrible defeat, not forgetting that Pistons totaled a team of 8 consecutive losses. In addition to the 76ers team achieved a great victory to beat the team of the NY Knicks at Madison Square Garden with a 108-103 Thaddeus Young and Andre Miller to move the mark of 20 points in the game.

The team of Orlando Magic still quiet in the 3rd position of the East Division with a record of 42-16 and offers a fantastic record of 20-9 in the "Road-Games", this number tells us that, outside play tonight will not be a problem for the team. A team of Philadelphia 76ers now has a record of 30-29 so holding 6th place in the same division of the East, the "Home Games" the team a record sum of 17-12.

I think the game tonight will revenge for the team of Orlando Magic as they suffered a terrible defeat in the game yesterday. The Roster of the Magic team is clearly better to the 76ers team, with more will and determination in the game today believe that the Magic will win.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Spartan

Creighton -8 vs Illinois St.

Dana Altman has his Creighton Blue Jays on a roll right now and I do not see any let down as his team host's Illinois State today. Today will be payback time for the Jays as they look ato avenge an earlier 22 point loss to this Redbirds squad. Altman has gone to a 10 man rotation and has been wearing opponents down. Look for a very solid effort and win today for Creighton.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Andre Gomes

NYK vs MIA

Both the Knicks and the Heat lost last night and they will try to bounce back tonight. Honestly I think that both teams are in a similar level, the only big difference between them is that Miami has Dwayne Wade, a guy who can finish off the games and the Knicks typically struggle to win ballgames. Having the chance to grab 6 points in this contest is a great deal, as this will likely be a wire-to-wire ballgame.

Miami is 2-3 after the All Star break and they are looking forward to install Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon in the team. Jermaine O'Neal can be an important piece of this team, but until now he has been taking bad shots, he is shooting 10 for 27 from the field in the last 3 games and 37 % FG for a big man isn't exactly good numbers. They lost yesterday against a tired Hawks team in a game where they lost several battles. They were outrebounded, outscored in the paint and had 16 fewer free-throw attempts. Of course I expect them to put a better effort on the court tonight, but they aren't a good bounce back team. Note that the Heat are 3-8-1 ATS in back to back games and 0-5 ATS at home! The combination of a loss + back to back game isn't great for the Heat, as they are 0-4 ATS at home in this situation.

Meanwhile the Knicks are coming from a frustratating loss against the Sixers. They were outscored 11-29 in the first quarter, but still they didn't quit fighting. Nevertheless, the Knicks battled back. Robinson scored in the lane with 2:18 left, making it 101-99. Then, once again they failed to close out the game. The Sixers went to the charity strip 52 times and that was the key of the game. I doubt that Miami can repeat such numbers tonight. Unlike the Heat, the Knicks are a good team in back to back games, as they are 5-2 ATS away dogs in b2b games (4-0 ATS L4 games). This can be explained by the fact that the Knicks always plays in the same style whatever the opponent and it's easy for them to continue playing with the same style.

I can see the Knicks winning outright this game, however Dwayne Wade will possibly take over the game down the stretch and that's why I like the 6 points in here. The last time the Heat played a high scoring game they lost at home against Minnesota. Take the Knicks in here.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

NBA
Milwaukee Bucks -7
Charlotte Bobcats -1
OK City/Memphis Over 197.5

NCAA Hoops
Creighton -8

NHL
Minnesota/Edmonton Over 5
Buffalo/NY Islanders Over 5.5
Carolina/Atlanta Over 6

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

TEDDY COVERS

Missouri State @ Indiana State
PICK: Indiana State

To say that Missouri State has nothing to play for here is something of an understatement. The Bears are 3-14 in conference play, locked into the #10 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference tournament next week in St Louis. They have lost their first eight MVC road games; six of them by double digit margins.


Missouri State had won 19 consecutive ‘senior nights’ before facing Creighton earlier this week, and they gave everything they had left in the tank against the Bluejays, leading by as many as 13 in the second half. But once again, this sorry team came up short, eventually losing by six. There’s no momentum here, no motivation, just a bad team playing their last regular season game before the chance of conference tournament redemption.

Indiana State, on the other hand, is playing with a boatload of momentum and energy these days. The Sycamores were awful in January, during their first go-round through the MVC. At one point, they lost ten out of eleven, including six straight at home. But we’ve seen the light switch go on for Kevin McKenna’s team over the course of the last few weeks: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six ballgames. On their own senior day, expect a comfortable win and cover from the better team in the better spot. 2* Take Indiana State.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

ALEX SMART

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Over

Two Canadian rivals the Toronto Maple Leafs and their hosts the Ottawa Senators, get ready to take part in a tilt I have pegged to be a free wheeling wide open scoring affair this Saturday night.

Both these teams successes and failures, can be attributed to their inconsistent and shoddy defenses and goaltenders this season, which in turn has seen both these teams play a lot of back forth affairs. I know Ottawa despite of having some top tier, offensive fire power in their lineup have struggled to bury the biscuit , but against a porous D, like the Buds own , the most lowly of teams can find ways to look like the 1972 version of the Montreal Canadiens.

The Toronto Maple Leafs' net minder Vesa Toskala has been playing pretty good of late as is evident by a 4-0-1 mark in his last 5 outings, but he did allow 4 goals in his last effort vs a Islanders team that despite of struggling to score all season long took 44 shots on him. That Isles output can be directly attributed to a ugly defense that ranks last in the league allowing 3.5 GPG. Toskala despite of current winning run, still owns one of the worst GAA in the league with a 3.27 GAA, and could easily get drowned in a swarm of pucks this evening.

Sure, the Leafs coach Ron Wilson is all giddy with his teams recent efforts, and has said he thinks his defense will play better. But his remarks, are just wishful thinking. I myself, have had dreams of winning a Stanley Cup, with a end to end Bobby Orr rush, but guess what , its just a dream. Until the Leafs find some real two way talent to place behind the blue line, things will remain ugly, and they will have to score a lot of goals to win. Something I am betting on will happen this evening.

Final notes & Key Trends: The Leafs after a game where they scored 5 goals , have gone over 11 of 12 times in their following tilt.

Play OVER

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Freese

New Mexico at Colorado State
Prediction: New Mexico

New Mexico is 12-3 ATS their last 15 games vs. teams with a losing record and they are 6-1 ATS their last 7 Saturday games. The Lobos are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40% and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 road games. Colorado St is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that have a win percentage of over 60% and they are 17-40 ATS off an ATS loss. The Rams are 0-4 ATS off a straight up win and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 home games vs. the Lobos. PLAY ON NEW MEXICO -

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nick Parsons

St. Louis Blues at Phoenix Coyotes
Prediction: St. Louis Blues

St. Louis (27-26-8) has quietly been one of the better teams in the West in recent weeks, and its 5-1-1 stretch since Feb. 13 has pulled it within three points of the eighth and final playoff spot in the conference. The Blues have taken both meetings with the Coyotes this season, also winning 4-3 at home Dec. 6. In Tuesday's victory for St. Louis, Phoenix failed to convert on four power plays and allowed Jay McClement's short-handed, go-ahead goal in the second period; expect more of the same this evening. Phoenix is 16-20 when playing against a team with a losing record; play on ST. LOUIS!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Purdue -9.5

Purdue didn't show up last time out against Michigan, but it will today as the Boilermakers look to avenge an earlier season loss at Ohio State and get back in the win column. The public is on Ohio State as they feel this number is high but let me remind you what Purdue did to Michigan State at home after coming off a lackluster performance at Iowa. It scorched the best team in the league by 18 points. Purdue has a 17.6 point margin of victory at home this season and is 10-1 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. There's no slowing down the Boilers today.

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