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Saturday Service Plays
Saturday Service Plays
Utah @ BYU
Big game tonight in the Mountain West Conference as Utah (11-2) travels to Provo to take on BYU (9-4). With just 3 games left for both these teams, this game becomes huge in the conference chase. The first go around this season was tight with Utah winning by 6 in overtime and Saturday’s should be another competitive game. So let’s take a look at both these teams and we’ll begin with Utah.
Utah is the number 1 team in the conference right now and they’re also the hottest riding an 8 game win streak which began with the overtime home win over BYU. Utah at 20-7 has to be in the conversation for an NCAA tournament bid. Utes have a resume which includes wins over LSU and Gonzaga this season, but they also have a couple of bad losses to Iowa St and Southwest Baptist. Utah is led by 7-2 senior Luke Nevill averaging 17.4 points, 8.5 boards, and 2.7 blocks per game. Nevill also solid at the line, like most of the team, shooting over 80% from the charity stripe this season, and he’s not the only senior on this veteran Utah line up, which will suit them well come tournament time. Utah not the most athletic squad, but this team is experienced, they are big, and they shoot free throws well. Whether it’s NCAA or the NIT, Utah could make a little noise in the post-season.
BYU at 21-6 overall and 9-4 in conference will probably have to win the Mountain West tournament to get their NCAA bid. BYU really lacks a marquee win outside of conference play, but they did play well in losses to Arizona St & Wake Forest. BYU has 3 players on their roster averaging over 15.8 points per game and they’re led by junior Jonathan Tavernari, who’s 17 points and 7.1 rebounds per game leads the team in both categories. BYU doesn’t have a quality big man like Utah and they rely a lot on perimeter shooting heaving up 520 three pointers this season. Utah had trouble with the big man Nevill the last time they met as he went 10-12 from the floor and 12-14 from the line for a season high 32 points. BYU will have to do better job against the big man here Saturday and I suspect at home they’ll get it done.
Early number on this game has BYU a 4 point favorite and I’ll lay the points with the Cougars. BYU a solid 12-2 at home this season and it’s been a homer series with Utah. No doubt BYU needs this game more than Utah and we’ll be willing to lay the 4 points in this one Saturday.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Georgetown (14-12, 7-14-1 ATS) at (10) Villanova (23-5, 14-10 ATS)
Surging Villanova, shooting for its 10 win in the last 11 games, takes on freefalling Georgetown in a Big East contest at the Wachovia Center.
The Wildcats held off DePaul 74-72 Wednesday night for their third straight win (1-2 ATS), but they failed to cover as a 13-point road chalk. Villanova, which is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 starts (all within the Big East), has averaged 77.4 ppg this season while allowing 66.8. The Wildcats have matched that 77.4 ppg on their home court this year, but they’ve tightened up the defense, yielding just 60.4 ppg.
The Hoyas got dumped at home by Louisville 76-58 as a one-point pup Monday, continuing their season-killing slide, as they are now 2-9 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 starts. For the season, Georgetown has been outscored by one point per game on the road (71.8-70.8), but the Hoyas’ only road win in their last five Big East trips came against lowly South Florida, with the four losses coming by an average final score of 80.5-73.3.
Villanova is 11-4 SU (9-6 ATS) in the Big East this year, posting a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark at home. Georgetown is 5-10 SU (3-12 ATS) in conference action, including 2-5 SU and ATS on the road.
Georgetown has won four in a row in this rivalry (3-1 ATS), most recently posting an 83-63 rout laying 6½ points in last year’s Big East Tournament. The underdog is also on a 9-4 ATS run in this rivalry, and Villanova is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
The Wildcats are on ATS upswings of 9-3 in conference play, 8-1 against winning teams, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 at home and 7-2 after a SU win. On the flip side, the Hoyas are on pointspread nosedives of 2-12-1 overall, 0-6 after a double-digit home loss, 1-10-1 against winning teams, 1-5-1 on the road, 6-18-1 on Saturday and 8-20 in Big East contests.
The over for Villanova is on a 6-1 run (all in the Big East), and the over for Georgetown is on rolls of 5-1 on Saturday and 8-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. However, the under for the Wildcats is on streaks of 9-4 at home, 6-2 on Saturday and 4-1 against winning teams, and the under for the Hoyas is on stretches of 17-7 on the road and 4-1 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and UNDER
Notre Dame (16-11, 6-15 ATS) at (2) Connecticut (26-2, 11-11 ATS)
Big East-leading Connecticut aims to continue its run toward a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when it plays host to inconsistent Notre Dame at Gampel Pavilion.
The Huskies dropped Marquette 93-82 as a one-point road chalk Wednesday night to halt a three-game ATS hiccup and hand the Golden Eagles their first home loss of the season. UConn is now on a 15-1 SU run, though it has gone just 8-7 ATS in lined games over that stretch. The Huskies’ scoring has been down lately, at just 70 ppg (while allowing 62.2) in its last five starts, but for the season at home, Connecticut has outscored opponents by an even 19 ppg (78.9-59.6.) in going 13-2 SU.
The Fighting Irish, looking to rebuild its NCAA Tournament momentum, routed Providence 103-84 as a two-point road pup last Saturday, then barely held off Rutgers on Wednesday 70-65 as a 14-point home favorite. Notre Dame has followed a seven-game SU and ATS freefall with a 4-1 SU surge (2-3 ATS), but the Irish are getting outscored by an average of about six points per game on the road this year (82.5-76.6).
Connecticut is 14-2 in Big East play (8-7 ATS in lined games), with a 6-2 SU mark at home (2-5 ATS in lined contests). Notre Dame is 7-8 SU (4-11 ATS) in conference, including 2-6 SU and ATS on the road.
UConn has won and covered in the last two meetings between these two, including a 69-61 road victory last month as a two-point chalk, which snapped Notre Dame’s home winning streak at 45 games. The Huskies are 4-2 ATS in the last six clashes in Connecticut, the home team is on a 5-2 ATS run, and the favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings.
Despite their lofty SU record, the Huskies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games and are on a 7-20-1 ATS slide coming off a game in which they scored more than 90 points. Likewise, the spread-covering slides for Notre Dame are practically endless, including 2-11 overall, 0-6 after a SU win, 1-7 on the highway, 2-10 in the Big East, 2-9 against winning teams and 8-20-1 on Saturday.
The under for Connecticut is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 on Saturday and 11-5 after a SU win. Conversely, the over for Notre Dame is on tears of 22-10 in conference action, 6-1 on the road, 5-1 on Saturday, and 17-4 in roadies against teams with a winning home record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CONNECTICUT
(12) Clemson (22-5, 11-10-1 ATS) at (23) Florida State (21-7, 14-7-1 ATS)
A pair of ACC teams looking to shore up their postseason credentials and earn a first round bye in the upcoming conference tournament square off when Clemson travels to Tallahassee to face Florida State.
The Tigers stumbled as a 10-point home chalk to Virginia Tech on Wednesday, losing 80-77 for to fall to 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six contests, all as a favorite. For the season, Clemson has outscored its foes by more than 12 ppg (79.2-66.8), but that margin tightens up significantly on the road, where the Tigers average 82.3 ppg and allow 79.3.
The Seminoles fell short at Boston College 72-67 Tuesday as a two-point ‘dog, slowing a 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) surge in ACC play, including two straight wins and covers prior to losing to the Eagles. Florida State has been narrowly outscored over its last five starts (69.4-69.0), but at home this season, the Seminoles beat opponents by nearly seven ppg (68.8-62.1), going 11-3 SU.
Clemson is 8-5 SU (7-5-1 ATS) in ACC play this year, including 4-2 SU and ATS on the highway. Florida State is also 8-5 SU (8-4-1 ATS), with a 4-2 SU and ATS mark at home.
Florida State is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 65-61 road upset three weeks ago catching nine points.
The Tigers are on ATS upticks of 6-2 on the road, 20-8-1 on the highway against teams with a winning road record and 13-6-1 after a pointspread setback, but they are on an 0-5-1 ATS slide on Saturdays. The Seminoles enjoy nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 18-8-2 overall, 6-0-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 on Saturday, 12-4-2 in the ACC, 5-2 at home and 7-3-1 against winning teams.
The over for Clemson is on rolls of 5-0 overall (all in the ACC) and 8-0 on the road, but the under for the Tigers is on a 9-1 tear against winning teams, and the under for Florida State is on streaks of 5-2 overall (all in ACC play), 8-1 against winning teams, 20-6-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 on Saturday. Furthermore, the last five meetings in Tallahassee have stayed below the total, and the under is 7-1 in the last eight series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Illinois State (22-7, 13-12 ATS) at Creighton (24-6, 14-9-1 ATS)
Streaking Creighton goes after its 10th straight victory when it welcomes Illinois State to the Qwest Center in a meeting of two of the top teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.
The Bluejays went out of conference to dump George Mason 76-63 as a 7½-point home chalk last Saturday in a Bracket Buster game, then beat Missouri State 65-59 Tuesday, pushing as a six-point road favorite. Creighton is 6-2-1 ATS during its 9-0 SU run and has scored 73 points or more in eight of those games. Over the last five games, the Jays are outscoring opponents by an average of 12 ppg (78.2-66.2).
The Redbirds fell to Northern Iowa 69-67 in overtime as a 6½-point home favorite Tuesday for their second consecutive SU and ATS loss, following a three-game SU and ATS win streak. Illinois State has averaged 70.9 ppg this season, while allowing 62.8, but the Redbirds drop off on the road, where they average just 65.4 ppg, about a bucket more than their opponents (63.8).
Creighton leads the MVC with a 13-4 SU mark (9-7-1 ATS) and is 7-2 SU and 3-5-1 ATS in home conference games. Illinois State stands at 11-6 SU in conference (8-9 ATS), including 4-4 SU and ATS on the road.
Illinois State has owned this rivalry lately, winning four straight and cashing in the last five meetings, including an 86-64 dusting as a two-point home favorite at the beginning of January. The Redbirds are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to Omaha, but the home team is on a 6-2 ATS run in the last eight clashes.
The Bluejays sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 in the Missouri Valley, 6-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Illinois State, conversely, is on pointspread plunges of 2-6 against winning teams, 1-6 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 3-13 after a SU loss and 4-9 after a non-cover.
The over for Creighton is on tears of 38-17-1 overall, 21-5-1 at the Qwest Center, 20-7-1 in conference action, 27-11-1 following a SU win, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 on Saturday. Likewise, the over for Illinois State is on upswings of 6-0 on Saturday, 4-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 in the Missouri Valley. Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last five series meetings in Omaha.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CREIGHTON and OVER
Arizona (18-10, 16-11 ATS) at (21) Washington (21-7, 17-9 ATS)
Washington, on the brink of wrapping up the Pac-10 regular-season title, caps a weekend homestand with a matchup against Arizona at Bank of America Arena.
The Huskies outlasted No. 14 Arizona State 73-70 in overtime Thursday night, and though they barely failed to cash as a 3½-point home chalk, they are still 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six starts, all in Pac-10 play. At home this year, Washington has averaged nearly 15 points more per game than its opponents (81.6-66.9), a notch better than its overall season averages of 79.2 ppg scored and 69.7 ppg allowed. The Huskies are 15-1 at home this season (9-5 ATS in lined games).
The Wildcats have followed a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) with back-to-back losses, falling at Arizona State 70-68 last Sunday but covering as an eight-point pup, then getting blown out Thursday at Washington State 69-53 as a three-point ‘dog. Arizona, which is still 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine starts, has been outscored on the road this season by an average of 7.5 ppg (70.8-63.3), lagging behind its overall averages of 71.4 ppg scored and 66.8 ppg allowed.
Washington leads the Pac-10 with a 12-4 record (10-6 ATS), going 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS at home. Arizona is fourth in the conference at 8-7 (9-6 ATS), going 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road.
Arizona is on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including a high-octane 106-97 home win as a one-point pup a month ago. However, the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run, the favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings, and Washington is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests in Seattle.
The Huskies are on ATS surges of 5-0 in Saturday tilts, 4-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 at home against teams with a losing road record and 5-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Wildcats are on positive pointspread streaks of 6-0 on Saturday, 4-0 after a non-cover, 10-4 after a SU loss and 6-1 against winning teams, but they’ve beat the spread in just four of their last 13 road games.
The over for Washington is on sprees of 13-3 overall, 11-0 after a SU win, 7-0 at home, 13-3 on Saturday and 20-7 in the Pac-10, and the over for Arizona is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 16-5 on Saturday. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last seven clashes in Seattle.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and OVER
(18) LSU (24-4, 11-9 ATS) at Kentucky (19-9, 12-10-1 ATS)
LSU takes a nine-game overall and 12-game SEC winning streak to Rupp Arena for a conference clash with Kentucky, with the Tigers looking to wrap up the top seed in the upcoming SEC Tournament with a victory.
Since losing 65-59 at Alabama as a three-point underdog to open SEC play, LSU has ripped off 12 consecutive league wins, most recently upending Florida 81-75 on Wednesday and cashing as a 3½-point home favorite to end an 0-3 ATS slide. The Tigers’ only loss in their last 13 games came at home against then 15th-ranked Xavier (80-70 as a 2½-point favorite in a non-conference game). Since the Alabama setback, LSU has scored at least 70 points in every game and is averaging 80.4 ppg in SEC play.
The Wildcats are coming off Wednesday’s ugly 77-59 loss at South Carolina in a pick-em contest, with star guard Jodie Meeks (18 points) and forward Patrick Patterson (28 points) scoring all but 13 of the team’s points and making 16 of the squad’s 20 field goals. Kentucky has lost five of its last eight games (2-6 ATS), going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home during this stretch.
LSU has clinched the SEC West title with a 12-1 conference mark (8-5 ATS), including 5-1 on the road (4-2 ATS). Kentucky is 8-5 (6-7 ATS) and tied for second in the SEC East, going 4-2 SU at home but only 2-4 ATS.
The Wildcats have taken the last two meetings against LSU and are 8-1 (6-3 ATS) in the last nine clashes. However, the visitor has covered in each of the last three regular-season battles.
LSU is 13-6 ATS in SEC play since last season, and since losing its SEC opener at Alabama, it has won five straight conference roadies (4-1 ATS). However, the Tigers are mired in a 10-28-1 ATS slump on Saturday. While Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in its last eight overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, it is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in its last five Saturday outings.
For the Tigers, the over is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 12-5 in conference play, 7-3 after a SU win and 10-3 after an ATS triumph. However, the under is 36-16 in LSU’s last 52 Saturday games. Kentucky is on “under” stretches of 6-1 at home, 17-8 in SEC play, 10-3 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU
Ohio State (18-8, 13-9 ATS) at (16) Purdue (21-7, 11-13 ATS)
Purdue will try to bounce back from its poorest defensive effort of the Big Ten season when it hosts Ohio State, looking to avenge an overtime loss to the Buckeyes three weeks ago.
The Boilermakers allowed Michigan to shoot 63 percent from the field in Thursday’s 87-78 loss to the Wolverines as a two-point road chalk, ending a four-game winning streak. Purdue matched a season high in points allowed against Michigan after giving up 53.3 ppg during its four-game run. Also, the Boilermakers have followed up a 4-0 ATS run by going 2-5 ATS in the last seven, all in Big Ten action.
Ohio State halted a three-game SU and two-game ATS slide with Tuesday’s 73-59 rout of Penn State as a six-point home favorite. The Buckeyes have cashed in six of their last eight outings (5-3 SU), and they’re averaging 71.1 ppg during this stretch. Since failing to cover in its first two conference games, Thad Matta’s squad is 9-4 ATS against Big Ten foes (4-2 ATS on the road).
Purdue is in third place in the Big Ten standings at 10-5, two games behind Michigan State, but the Boilers are 7-8 ATS in league play (6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home). Ohio State is 8-7 (9-6 ATS) in conference (2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS on the road).
The home team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-1-1 ATS), with the last two being overtime victories by Ohio State, including an 80-72 triumph as a two-point home pup on Feb. 3. The Buckeyes are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 tussles with the Boilermakers, going 6-1 ATS on their last seven trips to West Lafayette.
In addition to being 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall, the Buckeyes are on pointspread streaks of 5-2 against winning teams, 4-0 after a SU win and 4-0 on Saturday. Purdue is 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall and 3-9 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year, but 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on Saturday.
The under is on runs of 6-2 for Ohio State on the road, 42-18-1 for Ohio State on Saturday and 4-1 for Purdue after a SU defeat. However, the Buckeyes have topped the total in five of their last seven contests (all in the Big Ten), and the over is 3-0 in the last three series meetings and 6-3 in the last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
Utah (20-7, 16-10 ATS) at BYU (21-6, 15-11 ATS)
Utah can move a step closer to clinching the regular-season Mountain West Conference title when it battles archrival BYU at the Marriott Center in Provo.
The Utes knocked off UNLV 70-60 as a five-point home favorite on Wednesday, their eighth consecutive victory (6-2 ATS), all in conference. Utah is 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during the winning streak, which began with a 94-88 overtime win over BYU back on Jan. 27, cashing as a 3½-point home favorite.
BYU improved to 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last eight games with Tuesday’s 69-59 come-from-behind victory at San Diego State as a one-point road underdog. The Cougars, who trailed by 14 points with 14 minutes to play, outscored the Aztecs 49-26 in the second half. BYU’s only loss since falling to Utah was a 75-74 setback at UNLV as a 1½-point underdog last Saturday.
Utah sits alone atop the Mountain West standings at 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS, including 4-2 SU and ATS on the road. BYU is tied with New Mexico in second place with a 9-4 league mark (8-5 ATS), including 5-1 at home (3-3 ATS). The Cougars have won 37 of their last 38 conference home games, going 3-0 SU and ATS against Utah during this stretch.
Utah ended a four-game SU and ATS losing skid to its rival with last month’s overtime victory in Salt Lake City. The winner has covered in each of the last eight series battles, with the favorite going 6-2 ATS.
While the Utes are on ATS surges of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-0 versus winning teams, they’ve failed to cash in five of their last six Saturday contests. Meanwhile, during its 7-0 ATS run, BYU is 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and 3-0 ATS at home.
The over is on streaks of 5-2 in this rivalry, 12-5 for BYU overall, 7-1 for BYU on Saturday, 6-1 for Utah on Saturday and 15-6 for Utah after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BYU
Re: Saturday Service Plays
(25) Texas (19-8, 10-14 ATS) at Oklahoma State (18-9, 9-11-1 ATS)
Texas, which is trying to lock down a top-four finish in the Big 12 in order to earn a first-round bye in the upcoming conference tournament, goes after its third consecutive victory when it makes the trek to Stillwater for a battle with red-hot Oklahoma State.
The Longhorns followed up last Saturday’s hard-fought 73-68 home victory over then-No. 2 Oklahoma with Wednesday’s 87-81 win over Texas Tech. However, after cashing as a 1½-point home favorite against the Sooners, they fell well short as a 14½-point home chalk on Wednesday, dropping to 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games (4-9 ATS in conference). Texas is averaging 82 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting over its last five contests, but giving up 76 ppg on 48.3 percent shooting.
Oklahoma State has followed up a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS slump (all in the Big 12) with four straight wins and covers in conference action, most recently drubbing Colorado 76-55 as a 5½-point road favorite Wednesday. During their winning streak – all double-digit victories – the Cowboys are averaging 84.5 ppg on 48.8 percent shooting and surrendering 69.6 ppg on 43 percent shooting.
While Texas is 8-5 (4-9 ATS) in conference, including 3-3 on the road (2-4 ATS), the Cowboys are a game behind at 7-6 (6-7 ATS), including 4-2 at Gallagher-Iba Arena (3-3 ATS).
Texas has won six consecutive games in this rivalry (3-2-1 ATS) and is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 battles. That includes a 99-74 rout of the Cowboys as an 8½-point home chalk on Feb. 10. On the Longhorns’ trip to Stillwater last year, they held on for a 63-61 victory but fell just short as a three-point favorite. The home team is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Texas’ ATS funks include 2-6 overall, 2-5 on the highway, 1-4 on Saturday and 0-4 after a SU win. Oklahoma State is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 Saturday outings, but 2-5 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record.
The under is 5-1 in the last six clashes in this rivalry, but the over for the Longhorns is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-0 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) UCLA (21-7, 12-14-1 ATS) at California (21-7, 15-10 ATS)
Cal looks to extend a strong late-season run and score a rare victory over UCLA when these Pac-10 rivals get together at Haas Pavilion in Berkeley.
Since closing out January with back-to-back road losses at UCLA and USC, Cal has won five of its last six games, including four straight at home. The Bears avenged the loss to USC with Thursday’s 81-78 overtime victory, but came up short as a four-point home favorite, their second straight non-cover after a 4-0 ATS run. Cal has scored more than 70 points in each of its last seven victories, while producing an average of 63.6 ppg in five conference losses.
The Bruins held off Stanford 76-71 on Thursday, pushing as a five-point road chalk. However, they’re just 2-3 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games (all in conference). UCLA’s normally stout defense has been the biggest culprit lately, giving up 77.4 ppg on 53.1 percent shooting in the last five contests after holding opponents to 60.6 ppg in its first 23 contests.
Cal and UCLA are tied for second place – along with Arizona State – in the Pac-10 standings with a 10-5 record, 1½ games behind Washington. The Bears are 8-7 ATS in conference play, including 5-3 at home (7-1 SU), and the Bruins are 6-8-1 ATS in the Pac-10 (5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS on the road).
UCLA has owned the Bears in recent years, winning four straight meetings overall (3-1 ATS) and eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS), with Cal’s lone victory coming in the 2007 Pac-10 tournament. Back on Jan. 29, Cal went to Los Angeles and got manhandled 81-66 as a 10-point underdog. The Bruins have won three straight times in Berkeley (3-0 ATS), with victory margins of 12, 16 and nine points, the latter in overtime. The visitor had been on an 8-0 ATS run in this rivalry before the Bruins covered easily last month.
In addition to being 0-4-1 ATS in its last five overall, UCLA is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Conversely, Cal is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after a SU victory. However, the Bears have failed to cover in five of their last six after a pointspread setback.
The Bruins have topped the total in 10 straight games overall, five straight games on the road and five straight games on Saturday, and the over is 20-8 in their last 28 overall and 24-9 in their last 33 Pac-10 contests. Similarly, Cal is on “over” streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 13-5 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams and 36-15-1 after an outright victory. Finally, five of the last six Cal-UCLA battles have hurdled the total, but the under is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes in Berkeley.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and OVER
Orlando (42-16, 36-21-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (29-28, 27-28-2 ATS)
The Magic look to knock off the 76ers for the third straight time this season and the fourth time in a row going back to last year when these Eastern Conference foes clash at the Wachovia Center.
Both teams were in action last night, with Orlando suffering a stunning 93-85 home loss to slumping Detroit as a 9½-point home favorite while the 76ers wrapped up a three-game, seven-day road trip with a 108-103 win at New York as a two-point underdog.
The Magic are now 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games after going on a 19-4 run from mid-December through the end of January. Also, they’re 5-7 ATS slump comes on the heels of a 21-5 ATS tear.
Philadelphia has followed up a four-game SU and five-game ATS backslide by going 2-0 SU and ATS in its last two, both on the road. The Sixers are on a 16-8 SU run and they’re 14-9-2 ATS in their last 25. Also, they’ve won 12 of their last 17 home games (9-6-2 ATS).
Orlando beat the Sixers twice in a 20-day span in November, wining 98-88 as a five-point home chalk on Nov. 6, then going to Philly and eking out a 96-94 victory as a five-point road underdog on Nov. 26. The Magic have won three in a row SU and ATS and are 7-1 in the last eight meetings (5-3 ATS), including 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four as a visitor. Going back several seasons, the underdog is on a 23-10 ATS run in this rivalry, and Orlando has cashed in 11 of its last 15 trips to the Wachovia Center.
The Magic, who still own the second-best pointspread mark in the NBA, are on ATS runs of 35-18-1 overall, 15-6 on the road, 40-18-1 on Saturday, 7-4 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 versus Atlantic Division foes and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights. Philadelphia is on ATS surges of 30-14 on Saturday, 9-4 against winning teams and 6-1-1 versus the Southeast Division.
Orlando sports “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 10-4 on the highway, 5-2 on Saturday and 4-2 when playing within the Eastern Conference. On the flip side, the under for the 76ers is on runs of 6-3-1 overall, 36-16-1 at home, 6-2-1 on Saturday and 6-2 when playing on no rest. Also, the two meetings between these teams this season stayed under the total, and the under is 3-1 in the last four battles (2-0 in Philadelphia).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Intl
Play: Florida Intl -4.5
FIU will play host to their south Florida neighbor and Sun Belt Conference foe Florida Atlantic on Saturday night. The first meeting this season between these two took place at FAU’s Arena and they lost to FIU as a 4-point home favorite 58 to 53. This is a same-season revenge game for the Owls but you must have the ability to avenge the loss on the court and we believe they will come up short once again versus the Golden Panthers on Saturday night. The Owls are 3-9-1 ATS their last 13 versus the number suffering a blowout loss on Thursday at Western Kentucky 87 to 67 as a 14.5 point road underdog. That’s the same Western Kentucky team that FIU defeated on this floor back on January 8th 81 to 79 as a 5.5 point home underdog. Western did avenge that loss but FIU was able to cover the spread in that game losing 79 to 66. The Owls are not strong enough on defense to overcome the Panthers inside-out offensive attack which will be the difference tonight. FAU is 6-24 SU and 9-14 ATS overall this season with only one win on the road to go along with seventeen losses. In conference play it hasn’t been much better for the Owls posting a record of 2-15 SU and 4-12 ATS. The Golden Panthers are 11-19 SU and 11-15 ATS on the year with a home record of 9-7 SU and 6-6 ATS averaging 66.7 points per game and allowing 65.4 points per game. Over their last five games the Panthers are 2-3 SU but a very solid 4-1 ATS averaging 72.8 points per game and allowing 75.6 points per game. Florida Atlantic is 4-12 ATS against conference opponents, 2-8 ATS after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, 3-10 ATS after playing a road game and 0-6 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival this season. Florida International is 6-0 ATS when playing at home after suffering a SU loss in their last game. Lay the chalk with the host as the Golden Panthers roll past their south Florida foe and get the SU and ATS win on Saturday night.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) FIU Golden Panthers 71 FAU Owls 62
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Notre Dame vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut -11.5
This is one of the games that trends are so one sided that you can't ignore them. ND is one of the worst teams the last two years againsth the spread. check out the trends
Fighting Irish are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big East.
Fighting Irish are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Connecticut.
A very good UCONN team needs to win out to win the BIG EAST regular season championship and ND needs to most likely win this game to get into the big dance. ND has no answer for the inside presence of Thabeet and Adrian this will be a blowout. ND will have to win it from the outside 3 pt shots because Thabeet will take away the lane. SCORE UCONN 87 - ND 72
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Butler - over Cleveland State
Cleveland State lost by just two at home against Butler very early this year but the Bulldogs have covered in five of the past seven meetings. The home team has also had great success in this series and Cleveland State will be in a difficult travel situation facing a third straight road game, traveling to Wichita last Saturday and then to Valparaiso before heading to Indianapolis. Despite being a heavy favorite in most games this season Butler is still 16-9 ATS this season and the Bulldogs allow only 56 points per game at home on the year. Cleveland State has lost all road games against the top teams in the Horizon, going 0-4 S/U and ATS against Youngstown State, Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Wright State.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
James Patrick Sports
Arizona State vs. Washington State
Our selection in Saturday NCAA College Basketball tips off in PAC 10 action as we recommend Washington State Cougars as the home team in this series is 6-1 ATS and the Sun Devils are just 1-4 in Pullman.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Illinois State @ Creighton
Play: Creighton -7'
Creighton is on a huge roll right now, and I wouldn't look for the Bluejays to suddenly cool off as they host Illinois State. No one will need to remind the Omaha faithful what happened the last time these teams met, as the Redbirds annihilated the Bluejays by an 86-64 count. But things have changed dramatically since that result. Dana Altman is now rolling over a very deep 10-man rotation that is simply wearing down weary MVC opponents, and Creighton is also a very tough team in revenge settings. Add in a couple of very ugly technical trends on the Illinois State side, and this looks like a good spot for Creighton to pick up yet another win and cover.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Play On: Baylor
Yet another Big Dance wannabe looking to make good down the stretch. After opening the season on a 12-1 run the Bears went into early hibernation as they enter todayâ€™s fray on a 4-10 streak since. Hence, Baylor needs wins in its final two home games today and next weekend like a slumdog needs a millionaire. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in this series when looking to exact revenge. And that came about when Colorado knocked Baylor out of the Big 12 tourney when these two teams last hooked up last year. FYI: the last seven teams that the Buffaloes bumped out of a conference tourney went 6-1 ATS in the rematch the following season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home. Lay the points in this Bear hug.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Jimmy The Moose
San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
San Jose comes into this one having won 5 of their last 6 games. Montreal played last night in Philadelphia and won in OT, their 3rd win in a row. The Sharks are 42-18 in their last 60 games. In their last 5 games played with 1 day rest between action the Sharks are 4-1. The Sharks are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team from the Northeast Division. Montreal is 6-12 in their last 18 games and will be the more tired team tonight. In their last 4 games played with 0 day rest the Canadiens are 0-4. Montreal has lost 4 of the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the San Jose Sharks -.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Utah @ Brigham Young
PICK: Brigham Young
This is a big spot for BYU as heading into this week, it trails first place Utah by two games with only two remaining following this one. If the Cougars can win out, they are still in the running for the MWC regular season championship but will definitely need some help along the way. The rest of their schedule is fairly easy while the Utes are coming off a tough home with over UNLV on Wednesday and then have to go to New Mexico three days after this one that could potentially decide the regular season title. This two-game deficit can be mostly blamed on one game and that was a loss in Utah that came in overtime back no January 27th. That was the first loss in the last five meetings against the hated rival and BYU will be out for some payback. The Cougars had every chance to win that game as they shot 50.8 percent from the field, but were outscored 31-13 at the free-throw line. That is some definite home cooking that took place and BYU will most likely be getting those calls on its home floor. The Cougars have been outshot at the free throw line on the road by 44 attempts while outshooting foes by 20 attempts at home. After losing home games against Wake Forest and UNLV, the first snapping a 52-game home court winning streak, the Cougars have won four straight at home with the last three coming by an average of 23 ppg. Despite the two losses, this is still the most feared venue in the conference for opponents. We all know that this is a huge rivalry in football but the basketball version is just as fierce and the Cougars desperately want some revenge. A loss here would not only eliminate them from the regular season title but it would also put a damper on a possible third straight at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Utah has been a very good team on the road this season but its four road wins within the conference came at Air Force, TCU, Wyoming and Colorado St., who happen to be the four worse teams in the Mountain West with a combined record of 14-38. To no surprise, the two road losses came against UNLV and San Diego St., in the top half of the conference with BYU and those two setbacks came by 10 and nine points. Through games of February 22, BYU ranked first in the nation in field-goal percentage at 50.6 percent. UCLA, which is at 50.3 percent, is the only other team shooting better than 50 percent. Overall, the Cougars have a +13.6 edge in efficiency numbers. Utah normally has a clear edge inside but that is not the case here as the Utes are +5.4 rpg in margin while BYU is +4.2 rpg in margin so the difference is minimal. A variance that is not minimal comes in the ever important assist/turnover ratio category. The Cougars have a healthy ratio of 1.46 while Utah is at 1.02 which is barely above breakeven and pretty unimpressive if you ask me. BYU is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games against teams that slow the pace, averaging 53 or fewer shots per game. The Cougars are also 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games coming off a double-digit win in the conference and they are 11-3 ATS coming off a road conference win over the last three years. Look for BYU to dominate once again on its home floor and avenge that earlier loss to the Utes in a big way. 3* BYU Cougars
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Red Dog Sports
UNC/Ga Tech over 77 (Half)
10-4 last 14 UNC predictions
UNC is playing their first game in a week after their bad loss at Maryland and now face Ga Tech for the first time this season. UNC will try to establish Hansbrough down low for easy shots and free throws. The last 4 games between these two have been 48-46 (94 points), 49-42 (91 points), 34-23 (54 points) and 55-42 (96 points) at the half.
For a comparable game look at the GT game at Wake Forest that was 50-39 (89 points) at the half. The Yellow Jackets get scoring from Lawal, Clinch, Aminu, Shumpert and Peacock and should be able to score enough to get this above 80.
Look for a fast paced first half. UNC should be able to jump out to an early lead and my guess is a halftime score of 48-35 (83 points).
Ga Tech at UNC (over 77) Half for 3 units
Re: Saturday Service Plays
We are 3-for-3 with free plays the last three days after the Cavaliers routed San Antonio last night, giving us a 6♦ winner! Let’s make it four in a row with the freebies on Saturday as we back Creighton in Missouri Valley Conference action.
For starters, you’ve got two teams going in opposite directions here, with Creighton riding a nine-game winning streak (6-2-1 ATS) and Illinois State dropping two in a row and three of its last six, while also failing to cover in 10 of its last 15 contests after getting upset by Northern Iowa on Tuesday, 69-67 in overtime as a 6½-point home favorite.
This is also a quadruple revenge spot for the Bluejays, who have lost four straight to Illinois State, including an ugly 86-64 defeat as a two-point road underdog back on Jan. 3. However, since that victory, the Redbirds are just 8-7, with five of those losses coming on the road.
The biggest difference between these squads right now? Offense. Prior to Tuesday’s 65-59 win at Missouri State, Creighton had scored at least 73 points in eight straight games, averaging 78.8 ppg during that stretch. Conversely, Illinois State has been to 70 points or less in 13 of its last 15 games, and the Redbirds are shooting just 41.8 percent from the field in their last seven.
The home team has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between these schools, and Creighton comes into this game on a 6-1-1 ATS tear overall (5-1-1 ATS as a favorite. Bottom line: When Illinois State has won four straight and covered five in a row against Creighton, and yet the Redbirds are significant underdogs today, that’s the oddsmakers telling us something. Well, we’e listening. Lay the chalk, and look for the Bluejays to post their fifth double-digit victory in their last six home games.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
For Saturday I'm going to beat my head against the wall one more time and grab the big number with Notre Dame.
It's sort of like Crack to some, whenever Luke Harangody and the talented Fighting Irish are getting a price like this I just cannot help myself. UCONN is great and clearly the far superior team today and playing in Storrs is a huge advantage for them but the Irish still have an upside that is too much to pass up in this spot.
Mike Brey's team has been a huge disappointment this season and more than likely will not make the NCAA Field of 64. These guys have been horrific at times away from South Bend and certainly could get blasted today by a legit as heck Huskies group.
Hasheem Thabeet, AJ Price and the home boys are possibly the best team in the entire college game today and boast studs all over the court. Sure they should win this game and will win this game. But the Irish have to win this game pretty much if they want to make the Tournament and with the ability they have thanks to quality players in Harangody, Kyle McAlarney, Ryan Ayers, Zach Hillesland and a few others I will once again take my chances with ND. The seven game losing streak was atrocious and this team has not fully rebounded from that but they have improved a bit as we just saw in Providence and should be ready and fired up to face a top three type team today.
I certainly have been burned a bunch of times by Brey's squad this season but this number is a bit too large to not make a small play on these visitors. There is no doubt that the Irish have lost some fight in second halves of games but one of these days they will live up to their billing and compete for all 40 minutes. I really do hope this will be that day and if it is then this number is way too much and a total gift!
Re: Saturday Service Plays
In late action I like Utah State in a burial of Nevada in Reno tonight. After all given that the Aggies have just three defeats all year and already an 11 point win over the Wolf Pack I just don’t see Utah State losing tonight. In fact given that Utah State has won 4 of the last 5 meeting while covering all 5 games I am a bit shocked that this game opened up as a pick. Meanwhile, for Nevada home court has been nothing special this season as they are just 9-6 straight up and 2-11 ATS this season. So looking for their 27th win of the season I look for Utah State to take it to the Wolf Pack tonight and do so on the very small floor that will host the conference tournament in just a few weeks.
PICK: Utah State Aggies
Re: Saturday Service Plays
We got back on the winning track last night as we came through easily with the Portland Trail Blazers. We’re coming at it with back-to-back Comp Play winners today as we’re coming at it with some college hoops action.
Today we’re taking Memphis at home hosting Southern Mississippi.
Sure, you might be a little scared off by the near 23 points the Tigers are laying, but don’t worry about it because Memphis will roll by about 30.
Consider that the last time these two hooked up, just a couple of weeks ago on Feb. 14, Memphis destroyed Southern Miss 72-47 as a 12 1/2 point favorite.
Including that loss to Memphis, Southern Miss has covered in only one of its last 10 games, including non-covers in back-to-back games coming into today. Going a step further, the Golden Eagles have actually failed to cover in each of their last five games on the road and are only 3-9 ATS away from home this season.
Memphis, on the other hand, is 12-2 ATS at home this year, having covered nine straight games at home, and is beating its opponents by an average score of 80.4-56.7.
Memphis has also covered in eight of its last 10 games against Conference USA and has covered in six of its last eight meetings at home against Southern Miss.
The Tigers will have no trouble in this one and destroy the visiting Golden Eagles. Take Memphis big at home today.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Orlando -2 at PHILADELPHIA
The Magic have already beaten the Sixers twice this season and we expect them to make it three in a row tonight and do it by at least 10 points.
Orlando is pissed off after a shocking home loss to the Pistons on Friday night and they'll take out that frustration on the Sixers tonight. The Magic have been somewhat average since the break and you know their coach is not satisified with mediocre.
The Magic have too much talent to be average. They'll come out and show it tonight in Philly. Orlando is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings with the Sixers and got a 96-94 win in Philadelphia on Nov. 26 as five-point 'dogs.
Orlando is on ATS runs of 8-3 against the Atlantic Division and 15-6 on the road, 35-17-1 overall and 40-18-1 in Saturday games. Meanwhile, Philly is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at home against teams with a winning road record and 2-5 overall.
Play the Magic tonight to rebound from the ugly Friday loss. Go with Orlando.
USC at STANFORD -1
College hoops FREE winner coming your way today as we play Stanford to get the win and cover over USC in this Pac-10 matchup.
The home team has won each of the last nine meetings between these two teams and we're expecting much of the same tonight as Stanford gets the win over USC.
Stanford got a 52-46 home win over the Trojans last season and blew out USC in 2007, winning 65-50 as a one-point favorite. Stanford is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 home games and pushed Thursday night against UCLA, losing 76-71 at home as five-point home pups.
The Trojans were busy Thursday losing in OT at Cal 81-78 and just getting the cash as four-point road 'dogs. They are just 2-4 ATS in the last six contests and they have dropped four straight on the road (1-3 ATS) and four of five on the highway.
USC is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after a spread-cover while the Cardinal is 13-5-1 ATS at home and 14-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Stanford was right there Thursday but dropped the ball in the second half, but they'll get it done tonight against the Trojans. Play Stanford tonight.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Sports Gambling Hotline
Clemson at FLORIDA STATE +1'
Another comp play winner on Friday, as Philadelphia wins outright at New York.
17-6-2 is the free play run the last 25 days!
College hoops for Saturday, and we are on Florida State to continue their recent domination over Clemson.
The Seminoles took a 65-61 decision over the Tigers at LittleJohn on February 7th to make it 3-1 both straight up, and against the spread the last 4 times these schools have met.
Both teams come into this game off conference losses, but Clemson's loss is a little more shocking, as they were favored by double-digits, and lost at home to Virginia Tech, while Florida State lost at Boston College which was not unexpected.
The Seminoles are 11-3 straight up at home this season, and they are also on an 18-8-2 against the spread run their last 28 games.
Clemson appears to be in another late-season rut, splitting their last 6 straight up, and against the spread.
Play on the Sems.
3♦ FLORIDA STATE
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Duke -5 at VIRGINIA TECH
G-Man with a Friday comp winner on Milwaukee plus the points.
ACC action today, and even though I scored with a 40 Dimer on Virginia Tech in their upset win over Clemson on Wednesday, I will go against the Hokies this Saturday afternoon, as I don't think they match up well against the visiting Blue Devils.
Duke comes into this one having won their last 3 games, and they have covered their last pair in conference play.
The Dookies have also won the last pair of series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 series meetings. Included is a 69-44 beat down of the Gobblers in Durham on January 4th.
Tech has not topped 67-points in any of the last 4 series meetings, and the G-Man thinks the Blue Devils will throw the "D" down on the Hokies once again in this spot.
Lay the road wood with Duke this Saturday afternoon.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Texas at OKLAHOMA STATE -1
And all of a sudden the Pokes are in a Big Dance conversation.
That, along with the fact the oddsmakers decided to make them a slim favorite over a Texas team that has dominated this series leads me to believe the Longhorns are a trap play and that the home team is going to stroll out victorious.
Okie State is 13-2 straight-up at home, while it’s won four in a row both on the wood and at the window. That includes road wins at Texas Tech and Colorado; now it’s easy to see how the Cowboys would be hungry for a statement win over the 19-8 Longhorns.
I realize Texas named it in the first meeting, winning by 25 on Feb. 10, but that aforementioned four-game win streak has been since that disappointing loss, and a win today would guarantee Oklahoma State no worse than a .500 Big 12 mark with Kansas State and Oklahoma left on the docket.
But forget the Big 12 for a moment, the Cowboys know darned well at 18-9 overall, they need wins – and that’s with a sense of urgency. They’re on that proverbial Big Dance Bubble, and every minute of every game matters at this point.
Yes, Texas has owned this series; but the last time these two met in Stillwater, the margin fell on two, last January, when Texas eked out a 63-61 win. But that was a team that won 16 games and went to the NIT. This year’s version is looking to make it to the senior prom, ahem, the Big Dance.
Take the home team.
2♦ OKLAHOMA STATE