TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
VSE Power Plays
10* Take Maryland (+11) over Clemson (NCAA Power Play)
• 18-7 ATS in all road games over the last 3 seasons
• 15-3 ATS when playing in the month of February the last 3 seasons
• 4-0 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 8 days
5* Take Milwaukee (+7) over Detroit (NBA Bonus Play)
• 0-8 ATS in home games coming off an OVER the total
• 6-17 ATS when playing as a home favorite this season
• 7-16 ATS coming off a loss this season
5* Take Michigan State (+3) over Purdue (NCAA)
5* Take Chicago (-200) over Tampa Bay (NHL)
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Winning Angle Plays
Play Marquette (-13) over Seton Hall* (Top NCAA Play)
Marquette has won 22 of the last 23 games as a favorite of 10 points or more and they have also won 6 consecutive games when the total posted is between 150 and 159.5 points. Seton Hall has lost 15 consecutive games as an underdog of 10 points or more.
Play Kentucky (-1) over Vanderbilt* (Bonus NCAA Play)
Vanderbilt has lost 9 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off an UNDER the total and they have also lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread vs. conference opponents.
Play Oklahoma City (+3.5) over New Orleans (NBA Top Play)
Play Florida (+100) over New Jersey* (NHL Bonus Play)
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Opposite Action Plays
Lenny Del Genio
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
ACME Sports Inc.
5* New York OVER 206
2* Atlanta +9
2* Orlando -8
3 Units Utah OVER 201.5
1 Unit Detroit UNDER 196.5
5 Units Penn +3
5 Units Vandy +2
New England Sports
10 Units - Vanderbilt +2
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
20* PERFECT STORM-CBB (10-5 BKB run since last Weds!)
My 20* PERFECT STORM play is on Kent St at 7:30 ET. I attended Ohio U and tonight will not be a pleasant experience for my beloved Bobcats. Athens has been a tough venue this year for visiting teams (Ohio U is 11-1 at home in the Convocation Center) but the Bobcats are a measly 2-9 away from home, beating Austin Peay in their first road game of the season (back on Nov 22) and then Miami-Ohio on Jan 14. The 6-6 Tillman (18.9-8.2) is a terrific player and the 6-6 Orr (10.6-3.8) has had a solid season but all in all, this is an average team. Former Ohio State assistant John Groce is known as a great recruiter and that will be his challenge after accepting the head coaching job prior to this year, when Tim O'Shea chose to leave after seven reasonably successful seasons in Athens. The 6-10 van Kempen (3.5-2.3) will NEVER be much of a player and 6-7 sophomore Washington (6.6-4.6) has played much better than he did as a freshman but in the end, is just an average player. Ohio's backcourt is solid but no more. PG Allen (7.0-4.4 APG) is serviceable, joined by freshman Coleman (9.2-3.2-2.6) and 6-5 sophomore Freeman (8.4). Kent has been the MAC's dominant team of the last decade, as the Golden Flashes entered this year as one of just SEVEN Division I schools with a least 20 wins in each of the last 10 seasons. However, Jim Christian, who won 20 or more in each of his six seasons at Kent, left for TCU at the end of LY (Kent was 28-7). So who is at the reigns this year? Try former Bobcat and All-MAC guard, Geno Ford. Kent suffered through all sorts of problems this season, as the Golden Flashes were hardly 'golden.' From Nov 28 through Jan 11 (a 71-65 loss in Athens against these Bobcats), Kent went 4-8 SU and 0-9 ATS! After a 72-48 win over Bowling Green snapped the team's ATS slide, three more losses followed, with Kent averaging a pathetic 54 PPG. However, Kent enters this game having won SIX straight games (4-2 ATS), while averaging 70.7 PPG. The team's 'swagger' is back, led by LY's player-of-the-year, Fisher (15.2-3.3 APG). A HUGE addition (16 games ago) came with the eligibility of the talented but troubled, Tyree Evans but "all has been right," with Evans averaging 12.5 PPG alongside of Fisher. The 6-4 Singletary (12.8-4.4-3.3) is a 'tweener' but he's having a solid season, while veteran guards McKee (3.9) and Mincy (3.3-2.8 APG) can only add depth in a crowded backcourt. Small forward Sullinger (6.9-4.7) has been fine, while CC transfer Simpson (7.4-6.5) and the 6-10 Parks (6.9-5.0), who averaged just 1.6-0.7 LY, have both been excellent 'finds.' After its slow start, Kent (14-11 overall and 7-4 in the MAC) will probably not be the No. 1 seed in this year's tourney but the Golden Flashes just may be loop's best team come March 11 (first day of the MAC tourney). MAC schools all know that the conference hasn't had an at-large NCAA bid since 1999, so if you want to 'go dancing,' you had better be ready to win the MAC tourney. Kent is more than capable of doing just that. However, first things first. Kent "owes the Bobcats one," from that six-point loss in Athens on Jan 11. Expect tonight's win to come rather handily! PERFECT STORM 20* Kent St.
15* Underdog Shocker (6-1 NBA run since Feb 6)
My 15* Underdog Shocker at 8:05 ET. New Orleans needed the few days of rest provided by the All-Star break, as the Hornets dropped SIX of their prior eight games before the lay-off. The last two losses were rather 'ugly,' losing 85-80 at Memphis (shot 39.5%) and 89-77 at home to the Celtics (shot 41.0 percent). Chris Paul (21.3-5.3-10.8) returned to action vs the Celtics but center Tyson Chandler (8.8-8.3) is still sidelined with an ankle injury (listed as doubtful tonight). West (19.5-7.5) is having another "typical" year, Peja (14.4-4.2) is steady and Posey (9.5-4.7) has done what's been asked of him but this year's Hornets seem to be "falling from grace," unlike the team which was everyone's 'darlings' at the end of last year. Oklahoma City comes out of the All-Star break with the third-worst record in the NBA (13-39) but at 33-20 ATS, the Thunder own the West's best ATS mark (third-best in the entire NBA). Interim head coach Scott Brooks moved Kevin Durant (25.5-6.6) from the shooting guard to the small forward position and he's averaged 30.8 PPG in his six February games. Jeff Green's (16.7-6.6) numbers are up from his rookie year (10.5-4.7), while TY's rookie , Westbrook (15.0-4.7-4.9) , could hardly be expected to play any better. Weaver (3.6) is now starting at the SG spot and Collison (8.0-6.5) at center. PG Watson (6.4-5.8 APG), SG Wilkins (5.1) plus forwards Wilcox (8.4-5.3) and Smith (6.6-4.5) are all rumored to be on the trading block, but this team has been extremely competitive since Brooks has taken over for PJ as head coach. The FA signing of New Jersey center Krstic made little noise at the time but since Jan 7, he's played in 17 of 18 games, averaging 8.6 PPG and 5.1 RPG. Let's remember, before getting hurt, he was averaging 12.4 PPG and 6.0 RPG in two-plus years for the Nets. The Hornets have beaten the Thunder twice already this year, 105-80 and 109-97 but "that was then and this is now." One only needs to look at tonight's pointspread to realize that, as the last time the Hornets came to OKC (11/21), they were 10.5-point favorites, while on this visit they opened as just five-point choices and immediately dropped. With good reason! Underdog Shocker 15* OKC Thunder.
Las Vegas Insider-NBA (6-1 or 85.7% NBA run since Feb 6)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 7:35 ET. The Spurs opened the year with Ginobili recovering from an ankle injury (he would miss the team's first 13 games) and then Parker went down in the team's 12th game and would miss the next nine contests. Through all of this, the Spurs finished the break 35-16, a record topped in the West by only the Lakers. Ginobili's (16.1-4.7-3.5) numbers are again approaching last year's career-best ones, Parker is averaging 20.4 PPG and 6.4 APG, while Duncan (20.8-10.5) is simply put, Tim Duncan. Mason (11.9-3.2) and the 6-10 Bonner (8.5-4.8) have been major contributors this year, helping the Sputrs to the NBA's second-best three-point percentage of 39.2 (Mason's making 44.9 percent and Bonner, 49.0). Veteran Finley (9.2) has been solid and rookie guard Hill (6.6) was superb when Parker went out and has been a solid contributor, since. The Knicks have shown signs of improvement under D'Antoni at times but lost their final six games prior to there break (21-31 record), while allowing an alarming 120.7 PPG (rank 28th in PPG allowed this year, at 107.8). Harrington (21.2-6.5) has done well in his 39 games with the Knicks, while PF Lee (16.4-11.8) and guard Robinson (16.0-4.0-3.8) are having career seasons. PG Duhon (12.5-8.0 APG) and swingman Chandler (13.7-5.0) have been better than could be expected, while the 6-10 Gallinari (6.1) from Italy is now playing regularly (17 games). However, as the Spurs come to town tonight, Duhon is bothered by an ankle, Richardson (11.0-4.7) by his ribs and Thomas (9.6-5.0) by his groin. What's worse is that the Spurs have typically played extremely well coming off the All Star break. In fact, San Antonio owns a league-best winning percentage of .746 over the last six NBA seasons in the second half! The Spurs came back from the 2006 break to win their first seven games, opened the second half of the 2007 season with 11 straight post-break wins and last year opened the season's second half with nine straight wins. San Antonio outscored the Knicks 54-39 in the second half of its 92-80 home win back on Nov 11, a game in which both Ginobili and Parker were sidelined for. It marked San Antonio's 10th win in its last 11 meetings with the Knicks and there's little reason to expect anything will be different tonight. Las Vegas Insider on the SA Spurs.
15* Revenge Rout-CBB (10-5 BKB run since Weds!)
My 15* Revenge Rout is on BYU at 9:00 ET. Steve Alford won 24 games in his first season in Albuquerque and got the Lobos to win on the road, something they have been famous for NOT doing. New Mexico enters this game 16-9 (7-3 in MWC play) and is again, surprising many with its road play. The Lobos won at New Mexico St on Dec 30, the first of what was FIVE straight ATS road covers, ending last Wednesday when New Mexico won 76-66 at struggling Air Force, but failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite. The do-everything JR Giddens (16.3-8.8) is gone from LY's team but the return of the 6-5 Danridge (13.7-4.4), who missed all of LY with an injury, has been HUGE (he leads the team in scoring). LY's freshman PG, Gary (7.0-4.2 APG), is joined in TY's backcourt by TY's star freshman, McDonald (8.4-3.6). Garth (5.0-3.6 APG) adds depth in the backcourt, with 6-6 swingman Martinez (10.8-6.0) and the team's lone "big man," the 6-9 Faris (11.5-5.9), joining Danridge, Martinez, Gary and McDonald in the starting lineup. The 6-7 Toppert (11.1-3.) continues in his role of coming off the bench and supplying excellent point-production. Let's note that the Lobos have lost at three tough MWC venues since the first of the year, 69-68 at Utah, 81-76 at SDSU and 60-58 at UNLV. However, they covered all three of those games, against teams which are a combined 35-7 SU (.833). That's pretty impressive, so does that mean I'm "taking the points?" N-O! BYU's Marriott Center is the "toughest of venues." Yes, the Cougars saw their 53-game home winning streak snapped by Wake back on Jan 3 but the Lobos have nowhere the talent (or depth) of the Demon Deacons, who shot 50.0 percent from the floor in that game, while BYU shot 40.2 percent (also made only 10-of-32 threes!). BYU also lost this year at home to UNLV (11-2 SU and just 4-8 ATS on the year at home) but since losing a brutal 94-88 OT game in Salt Lake City to hated rival Utah, the Cougars have rebounded to go 4-0 SU and ATS. It's clear that the 6-11 Miles (7.5-3.7) has been no replacement for Plaisted (15.6-7.7) in the middle but in Cummard (17.2-6.3-3.3) and Tavernari (17.0-7.0), the Cougars have two of the MWC's best players. Guard Fredette (15.7-4.5 APG) is an excellent leader in the backcourt, joined by Emery (7.5-3.8) plus Morgan and Abouo, who combine for about 12 PPG. Revenge is definitely on the minds of all BYU players after the team's 81-62 loss at "The Pit" back on Jan 17, a loss which ended BYU's six-game winning streak in this series and is BYU's most lopsided loss this year. The Cougars have won 25 and 27 games the last two seasons, winning MWC regular season titles both years, before losing in the MWC tourney to UNLV, playing on its home court. The Cougars (7-3) trail both SDSU (8-3) and Utah (9-2) right now in the league standings and with visits to UNLV (Sat) and SDSU (Feb 24) coming up next, this home became becomes HUGE. Revenge Rout 15* BYU.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Tuesday NBA Opinion
ORLANDO (-8 ½) over Charlotte
Orlando hasn’t played as well without injured All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson, but the Magic continue to play well after a loss regardless of who is in the lineup. Orlando is 34-12 ATS after a loss under coach Stan Van Gundy, including 3-0 ATS this season without Nelson in the lineup (and 1-0 without star Dwight Howard). Unfortunately, my ratings only favor Orlando by 7 ½ points in this game with Charlotte at full strength now that Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell are ready to return to the lineup (the Bobcats are 9-7 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS when they both play). I’ll still lean with Orlando given how good they’ve been after a loss.
Tuesday College Opinions
PRINCETON (-2 ½) over Penn
Princeton was swept in their weekend road trip at Yale and Brown, losing those games by an average of 15 points, while Penn beat those two teams by an average of 13 points. Prior to their bad weekend, the Tigers had won 7 consecutive games and they are 7-3 straight up and 5-2 ATS since G Marcus Schroeder joined the lineup (5-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home). Penn had lost 5 of 6 prior to winning those two games over the weekend. My ratings favor the Tigers by 5 ½ points and I’ll lean with Princeton based on the line value.
Murray State (-14 ½) over SE MISSOURI STATE
Southeast Missouri State is a horrible team on a 15 game losing streak that has lost their 10 home games by an average of 10.4 points to teams that are, on average, 7.5 points worse than Murray State. The Redhawks are only 3-12 ATS in their last 15 lined home games (2-6 ATS this season) and they apply to a negative 3-28-1 ATS subset of a 27-66-1 ATS home dog situation that plays against horrible teams. SE Missouri State also applies to a negative 58-115-3 ATS situation. My ratings favor Murray State by 14 ½ points and using the Redhawks’ home games and the Racers’ road games would yield a predicted margin of 18 points. In the first match up between these teams a few weeks ago SE Missouri State made 53.5% of their shots and Murray State made just 43.5% of their shots and the Racers still won by 25 points – which is a good indicator of how much better Murray State is. The line is a bit higher than I had hoped it would be, so I’ll just lean with Murray State at -15 or -14 ½ points. I’d make Murray State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.