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MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. I successfully played on the College of Charleston back on December 29. The Cougars covered the spread vs. Davidson in that game, losing by four points. More recently, on 2/7, the Cougars went one step further and won outright at Davidson. That was certainly impressive and that has the majority of the betting public believing that they will have no problem with lowly Appalachian State this evening. That's only natural, as one would think that if they could win at Davidson, that they would have little problem with the rest of the teams in this conference. However, a closer look shows that the Cougars have actually been struggling lately. In fact, if we take out the win at Davidson, they're just 2-4 their last six games. That includes a pair of losses vs. Citadel, as we as losses vs. Elon and Western Carolina. The Mountaineers come in off back to back losses of their own, falling on the road vs. both Western Carolina and Citadel. However, both those losses were by five points or less, with the Mountaineers missing the cover by a bucket or less in each of the setbacks. Prior to those losses, Appalachian State defeated Elon by double-digits and had won three of its previous four games, the lone loss coming by two points. In other words, the Mountaineers have been highly competitive in six straight games. That six-game stretch came after coach Houston Fancher had suspended guards Ryann Abraham and Eduardo Bermudez for an "attitude adjustment," although Bermudez has since returned. That move by Fancher sent a message to the players that they needed to work harder and put the team first, or there would be consequences. I feel that the move was effective and I look for the Mountaineers to respond with another big effort this evening. Appalachian State, which lost but covered vs. the Cougars earlier in the season, has gone 6 -3 ATS its last nine in this series. Now, the Mountaineers find themselves in one of their very best roles as they've gone 11-2-1 ATS (9-5 SU) the last 14 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Look for the revenge-minded Mountaineers to come away the victory, improving to 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they faced a team which scores 77 or more points, through 15 or more games of the season. *Best Bet
I'm playing on Pittsburgh and UConn to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams currently rank in the top five in the country, making this a huge game. The Huskies are #1 while the Panthers, who were also #1 for a time, come in at #4. While both teams are fully capable offensively, its their defensive play which makes them so tough to beat. The Huskies come in allowing just 60.5 points per game, including 59.1 here at home. Opponents are hitting only 35.9% of their field goals, when playing here. The Huskies have been particularly dominant defensively lately, allowing an average of only 55.2 points through their past five games, holding opponents to a mere 33.6% shooting during that stretch. Pittsburgh's defensive numbers aren't quite that good. However, they're not that far behind, either. The Panthers are allowing only 62.1 points per game, including just 61.8 in games outside of Pittsburgh. Opposing teams are shooting just 39.1% from the field in those games. While road games vs. weak teams like Depaul and Rutgers have been high-scoring, the Panthers saw their road games against top tier teams Louisville, Georgetown (recent losing streak notwithstanding) and Villanova all stay below the total. Those three games finished with combined scores of 124, 132 and 124. Having held seven straight opponents to 61 points or fewer, it's no real surprise to find out that the Huskies have seen the UNDER go a profitable 6-1 their last seven games. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 12-3 their last 15 games. These teams last met here last February. That game had an over/under line of 141, yet the teams produced a mere 113 combined points, only 44 in the first half. Look for this evening's game to also prove lower-scoring than many are expecting. *Main Event
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Coyotes are certainly struggling and it's true that they've had nothing but trouble with the Oilers of late. That should make them extremely desperate tonight and I expect them to respond with a massive effort. Yes, the Oilers did begin their road trip with a victory at LA. However, that was a rather fortunate win as it came in a shootout and the Oilers were outshot by a 41-21 margin. Even with that victory and the Coyotes' recent struggles, note that the Oilers' road record still isn't quite as good as Phoenix's home record. Both teams had yesterday off. While the Coyotes also have the next two days off, Edmonton plays a big game at San Jose, the top team in the West, tomorrow. That's worth noting as the Oilers are 0-4 the last four times that they played the front-end of back to back games. Three of those four losses came by four or goals or more and they came by a combined score of 25-8! The battle for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference will be an extremely competitive one and Gretzky and the Coyotes know that time is running out. Look for them to get back on track here, earning a very important and badly needed two points. *Annihilator
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play.Take Louisiana Tech +9 over New Mexico State
I like La Tech catching the points. You know, I gave a strong look at the Pitt vs. Uconn game today and actually leaned on the under and nearly wrote the analysis last night. But, I held back simply b/c I think Pitt can very well win that game SU. I still think it can go under, the but the total has dropped two points, and if I think the dog is going to do well, then it would go with my active dog/over theory which I have published relentlessly about the last four years. So, it would go against my view to take the total if Pitt is competitive in that game. Let's ride La Tech today on the road. La Tech has quietly pulled themselves into a top 200 power ranked team. They have not faced New Mexico State this year, but have plenty of revenge from being swept last year. Note, that La Tech does have talent enough to beat Fresno State by 13 at home (same team that took State to OT just recently at State), lost to conference stud Utah State by just 8 on the road, and even beat a top 120 Nevada team on the road outright by 3 by dropping 78 points on the highway on them. New Mexico State is a talented team and they are 7-5 in conference play and I'm not taking that away from them. But, they are not the type of team that blows other teams out in conference play. When the played Fresno State recently, they won in OT (who is a similarly ranked team to La Tech), this team too beat Nevada on the road by 2 points (same as La Tech) and beat San Jose State by 8 and Hawaii by 10 at home. I can see La Tech hanging tough most of this game on the road today as if they can hang within 8 to Utah State who is a top 50 team, why can they not hang tough against New Mexico State who doesn't necessarily blow teams out at home. I have La Tech losing by 6 here and will take the 9 points. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS as an Underdog of this margin, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and New Mexico State is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of this margin at home. Let's ride the Bulldogs who are also 16-5 ATS as a road underdog in their last 21 contests.
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
1000 units NHL Total Of The Week! Edmonton at Phoenix over the total When EDMONTON team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off vs Pacific division opponent 12-1 O/U in this spot.
1000 units Loyola-Maryland minus the points over Canisius
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