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Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays



The Heat (27-24) face the Bulls (23-29) and more importantly, Dwyane Wade who is leading the league in scoring faces Derrick Rose in his home town on National TV. The Chicago Bulls are ranked 12 on offense, averaging 100.4 points per game. The Bulls shooting percentages include 45.0 FG%, 78.2 FT%, and 37.8 three point % so far this season and the Miami Heat are ranked 24th on offense, averaging 96.3 points per game. The Heat shooting percentages include 45.0 FG%, 73.9 FT%, and 35.5 three point % so far this season.The Chicago Bulls are 14-10 at home this season, and 11-17 against Eastern opponents. At home the Bulls are averaging 101.2 scoring, and holding teams to 100.3 points scored on defense. On the road, the Heat are averaging 96.7 scoring, and holding teams to 100.3 points scored on defense. Forget alll the stats in this game, tonight will be about the Vetern All-star Diwayne Wade going head to head with the Rookie sensation Derrick Rose. Both guards will be pushing the ball tonight at a high pace and on Top of their game for this much anticipated matchup. Look for both teams to put up points tonight lead by their Superstar guards.TAKE OVER 196 1/2

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Gonzaga -4

St. Mary's can't bear the Zags without Patrick Mills. Gonzaga won the first meeting at home by 7 and I expect this one to be even worse with the Bulldogs coming off an eye-opening 18-point loss to Memphis. St. Mary's is also coming off an 18-point defeat but history is not on the side of the Gaels bouncing back. St. Mary's is 6-18 ATS in home games after a loss by 15 points or more since 1997 and 4-14 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1997. The Gaels are losing by an about 9 ppg in each of these situations. Gonzaga has won 25 of the last 29 in this matchup and I'll take the Zags in a bounce back spot here.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Santa Clara at Pepperdine

Santa Clara is 24-11 ATS their last 35 games vs. losing teams and they are 7-3-1 ATS off a straight up win. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS their last 6 Conference games and they 18-7 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage of under 40%. Pepperdine is 1-6 ATS at home off three or more straight road games and they are 1-4 ATS at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The Waves are 9-19 ATS their last 28 home games and they are 1-10 ATS at home if they covered ATS in their last game. PLAY ON SANTA CLARA -

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Louisville @ Notre Dame
PICK: Notre Dame

Notre Dame was riding high at 12-3 (3-1 in the Big East) when it visited Louisville on Jan 12. The Irish came back from a halftime deficit to force overtime but were then outscored 16-2 in the extra period, losing 87-73. Notre Dame hasn't won since. The team enters this game on a seven-game losing streak (SIX of the losses have come against ranked opponents) and with a 12-10 overall record (3-7 in the Big East). That's a pretty sad state of affairs, as most felt this was Mike Brey's best team. Meanwhile, Louisville comes in 18-4 overall (9-1 in the Big East) and ranked 5th in the nation. Swingman Clark (13.0-8.5-3.0) is a 'nightmare' matchup for every team, while the 6-6 Williams (13.0-9.0-4.6) and 6-9 freshman Samuels (12.3-5.2) round out the team's three double digit scorers. Pitino's got his usual bevy of guards, with Sosa (7.5), Smith (7.5), Knowles (5.5) and McGee (4.7) all getting playing time. However, "every dog deserves at least one day" and let's not forget, the Irish played the Cardinals toe-to-toe in Freedom Hall. Harangody (24.3-12.6) hasn't forgotten how to play plus guards McAlarney (15.8-2.5-3.6) and Jackson (10.9-4.9-5.1) are an impressive duo. When U Conn beat Notre Dame 69-61 in South Bend on Jan 24, it ended the nation's longest home winning streak at 45 games. The Irish will be happy these days to have a winning streak of ONE and I'm betting that ONE coms tonight! Take the points with the Irish.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

maddux sports

Today's Free Pick is Portland Trail Blazers +3


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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports 


(Power Angle Play)

San Diego -13.5 over LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

The Toreros are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, while the Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. San Diego has also gone 6-1 ATS in Loyola and they have taken the last 3 in the series overall, by an average of 18.7 ppg. Loyola has been truly dreadful this year as they are 1-23 overall and have been outscored by 18.3 ppg on the year, plus they have been outscored by 15.9 ppg at home. Loyola is also 0-8 in conference play and they have scored just 55 ppg and shot a pathetic 33.4% from the floor in West Coast play. On the flipside, the Lions have allowed 73.5 ppg and 49.1% shooting in their conference games. Overall the Lions rank dead last in the country in FG% (34.4%) and points scored (54.3). The San Diego defense will be tough for the Lions to get points off of as they are 28th in points allowed (60.5 ppg) and 106th in FG% defense (41.7 %), plus they allow just 59 ppg in West Coast play. The San Diego offense is nothing special, as they average just 62.2 ppg, but they are above average in FG% as they rank 144th in that category (44.4%). San Diego should be able to put some solid points on the board vs a Lions defense that has allowed 73.3 ppg overall, 70.6 ppg at home and 76.4 ppg in their last 5 games. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5, but those losses were vs Gonzaga, Portland, St Marys and Santa Clara and the last time I checked the Lions weren't even in the same galaxy as those teams. San Diego best the Dons by 10 their last time out and they should have a much easier time tonight. SD by 18+.

POWER ANGLE For this Play-- During the last 2 seasons, Loyola is just 1-11 ATS vs teams that average 53 shots or less per game.   


Louisville -3 over NOTRE DAME

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Speculating Sports

Oregon State Beavers @ Washington Huskies
Pick: 3 units Oregon State Beavers +16.5

The Beavers have quietly played much better basketball as the season has progressed.  They are 4-3 against the spread in their last 7 games, but their games are much more competitive than earlier in the season.  Oregon State is in a position where they play their best basketball, a significant road underdog where little is expected of them.  In addition, they were embarrassed by Washington earlier in the season at home, so this game is a huge revenge factor for them.  Meanwhile, the Huskies are not in a good situation heading into this game.  They are coming off of four consecutive road games against the better teams in the Pac-10.  Now Washington is coming home to play a team that they dominated earlier in the season, so there is little motivation for them to get up for this game.  Especially since they had were fairly successful in their road contests, going 2-2 straight up.  Look for an improved Oregon State team playing with motivation to keep this game close.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Louisville -3

The Irish will get up for this one and they'll be in it for a while, just like they have been in so many of their games, but when it's all said and done they will come up short again. This Notre Dame team relies on making three point shots to win games and it hasn't been able to do it consistently enough. Teams have been letting Luke Haragody get his, but they have been all over Kyle McAlarney like white on rice, not allowing him to ever really find a rhythm. Louisville's pressure really took its toll on Notre Dame in the first meeting when the Cards won by 14 and it will be the same story tonight. Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season, losing by an average score of 73.3 to 83.9. Take the Cards!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

John Ryan

Illinois vs. Northwestern     
Play: Northwestern +2

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Northwestern as they play host to Big-10 rival Illinois slated to start at 9:00 EST. Northwestern will win this game based on the AiS summary data and projections. Two projections working against Illinois are that Wisconsin has an 82% probability of shooting between 40 and 46% in this gam,e and that Illinois will score between 61 and 66 points. Note that Illinois is just 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons and just 18-45 ATS (-31.5 Units) when they score 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 63-32 making 29.3 units since 2003. Play against road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after allowing 60 points or less facing an opponent after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games. Illinois not in a good role either noting they are 1-9 against the money line (-8.7 Units) at road when the money line is +135 to -155 over the last 3 seasons. Take Northwestern.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

LT Profits

Eastern Illinois +8.5

The Eastern Illinois Panthers have dominated the Morehead State Eagles in recent seasons including a covering win this year, and we do not feel enough separates these clubs to justify this big spread.

Now Morehead State does lead the Ohio Valley Conference at 10-3, but we still do not trust them laying this many points, as the Eagles are actually getting slightly outscored by an average of -0.4 points in all of their games this season. The problem has been turnovers, as they have turned the ball over in 23.9 percent of their possessions, ranking 311 in the country in that category.

Eastern Illinois may be no great shakes at 11-12, but their statistics are not vastly different than those of Morehead State, as the Panthers are getting outscored by -0.8 points per game overall. More importantly, they are a good three-point shooting team at 36.5 percent, which is a nice trait for a decided underdog like this.

The Panthers won the first meeting between these clubs this season 67-61 at home, bringing them to 10-1-1 against the spread in the last 12 head-to-head meetings. Look for them to cover this inflated number also.

Pick: Eastern Illinois +8.5

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Portland Trail Blazers

The Warriors have not lost at home to Portland in more than four years and, of course, this is a big driver with this line moving upward today. We saw an opening number of a pick’em on this game then the lines first came out yesterday. We’re now seeing this line moving all the way up to the 3.5 range this morning. As long-time followers know, we love to fade the historical numbers when we feel it’s justified based on the current situation. That is precisely the case here! The Trail Blazers are the much better defensive team in this match-up.

The Warriors are coming off of a home rout of the Knicks as New York simply could not stop the Golden State offense. However, the Warriors won’t find those same types of openings against a very strong Blazers defense that is anchored by Greg Oden in the middle. Also, as impressive as the Warriors win was on Tuesday, Golden State did give up 127 points in the game. We feel strongly that they are going to struggle to stop Portland’s offensive weapons and we look for the Warriors to get frustrated by facing a much tougher defense today than what they faced on Tuesday versus New York. The Warriors have won 7 straight home games against Portland but Oden had 22 points and 10 rebounds in the loss here back in November. Note that the Blazers are 7-2 when Oden scores at least 13 points and so that was a rare loss on a night when Oden was “on”. We look for him to be “on” again here and we love getting the points here with a team that’s won 7 of their last 9, has a much stronger defense, and a team that is hell-bent on putting their 0-fer streak in Golden State to bed! Consider a small play on the Trail Blazers on Thursday.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays


Portland at Golden State 
The Warriors look to build on their 14-5 ATS record at home when the total is 210 or greater.  Golden State is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 4.  Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2). 

Game 701-702: Miami at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 117.911; Chicago 120.443
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Boston at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 126.980; Dallas 125.759
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 4; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4); Under

Game 705-706: Portland at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.450; Golden State 124.201
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 4; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2); Over


Gonzaga at St. Mary's (CA)
The Zags are 4-2 ATS on the road this season and face a St. Mary's team that is just 1-5 ATS at home. Gonzaga is the favorite (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Zags favored by 9.  Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-4).   

Game 707-708: Louisville at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 74.530; Notre Dame 70.116
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-2 1/2)

Game 709-710: WI-Milwaukee at Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 55.870; Cleveland State 63.454
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 11
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+11)

Game 711-712: Temple at St. Joseph's
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 63.446; St. Joseph's 60.563
Dunkel Line: Temple by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Temple

Game 713-714: Denver at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 51.626; Florida Atlantic 51.761
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 1
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+1)

Game 715-716: George Mason at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 60.211; Delaware 54.164
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 6
Vegas Line: George Mason by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-5 1/2)

Game 717-718: WI-Green Bay at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 62.550; Youngstown State 58.406
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 4
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+5 1/2)

Game 719-720: Buffalo at Eastern Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 59.331; Eastern Michigan 45.902
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-8 1/2)

Game 721-722: Fresno State at Louisiana Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 49.163; Louisiana Tech 56.099
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 7
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-3 1/2)

Game 723-724: Middle Tennessee State at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee Stat 55.554; Troy 58.507
Dunkel Line: Troy by 3
Vegas Line: Troy by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-1 1/2)

Game 725-726: New Orleans at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 47.153; North Texas 55.257
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 8
Vegas Line: North Texas by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+10 1/2)

Game 727-728: Arkansas Little Rock at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas Little Rock 55.212; Arkansas State 52.222
Dunkel Line: Arkansas Little Rock by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas Little Rock

Game 729-730: Florida International at South Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 44.106; South Alabama 54.998
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 11
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-10 1/2)

Game 731-732: UL Lafayette at UL Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 47.766; UL Monroe 50.215
Dunkel Line: UL Monroe by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: UL Monroe by 2
Dunkel Pick: UL Monroe (-2)

Game 733-734: Illinois at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 69.152; Northwestern 66.640
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-2)

Game 735-736: UCLA at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 72.204; Arizona State 73.126
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 1
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+1)

Game 737-738: San Diego at Loyola Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 54.120; Loyola Marymount 38.935
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 15
Vegas Line: San Diego by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-13 1/2)

Game 739-740: Portland at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 54.060; San Francisco 49.137
Dunkel Line: Portland by 5
Vegas Line: Portland by 4
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-4)

Game 741-742: Nevada at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 58.204; San Jose State 56.187
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Nevada

Game 743-744: Utah State at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 62.666; Idaho 59.720
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 3
Vegas Line: Utah State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+6)

Game 745-746: CS-Fullerton at Pacific
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 50.636; Pacific 58.018
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pacific by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (+8 1/2)

Game 747-748: UC-Irvine at UC-Davis
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 51.281; UC-Davis 54.702
Dunkel Line: UC-Davis by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Davis by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+6 1/2)

Game 749-750: Oregon at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 57.180; Washington State 67.346
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 10
Vegas Line: Washington State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+11)

Game 751-752: USC at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: USC 67.880; Arizona 73.727
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 6
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3)

Game 753-754: Santa Clara at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 54.582; Pepperdine 47.187
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+8 1/2)

Game 755-756: Oregon State at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 61.560; Washington 76.036
Dunkel Line: Washington by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+16 1/2)

Game 757-758: Gonzaga at St. Mary's (CA)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 71.839; St. Mary's (CA) 62.971
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 9
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 4
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-4)

Game 759-760: Appalachian State at The Citadel
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 49.435; The Citadel 55.579
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 6
Vegas Line: The Citadel by 4
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (-4)

Game 761-762: Manhattan at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 50.210; Siena 65.361
Dunkel Line: Siena by 15
Vegas Line: Siena by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-13 1/2)

Game 763-764: Georgia Southern at Furman
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 42.185; Furman 47.319
Dunkel Line: Furman by 5
Vegas Line: Furman by 1
Dunkel Pick: Furman (-1)

Game 765-766: Elon at TN-Chattanooga
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 45.516; TN-Chattanooga 56.503
Dunkel Line: TN-Chattanooga by 11
Vegas Line: TN-Chattanooga by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TN-Chattanooga (-9 1/2)

Game 767-768: Davidson at Wofford
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 63.250; Wofford 53.449
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 10
Vegas Line: Davidson by 12
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+12)

Game 769-770: Niagara at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 58.191; Canisius 50.309
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 8
Vegas Line: Niagara by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+8 1/2)

Game 771-772: Fairfield at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 51.327; Marist 47.792
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-2)

Game 773-774: Eastern Illinois at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 49.995; Morehead State 56.489
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+8 1/2)

Game 775-776: NC Greensboro at Samford
Dunkel Ratings: NC Greensboro 42.732; Samford 56.859
Dunkel Line: Samford by 14
Vegas Line: Samford by 9
Dunkel Pick: Samford (-9)

Game 777-778: Jacksonville State at TN-Martin
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 45.939; TN-Martin 59.703
Dunkel Line: TN-Martin by 14
Vegas Line: TN-Martin by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TN-Martin (-10 1/2)

Game 779-780: Tennessee Tech at Murray State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 47.141; Murray State 57.802
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-10)

Game 781-782: Montana State at Northern Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 47.741; Northern Arizona 55.045
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-5 1/2)

Game 783-784: Portland State at Idaho State
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 54.567; Idaho State 54.265
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Portland State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+3 1/2)

Game 785-786: SE Missouri State at Eastern Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 37.400; Eastern Kentucky 53.978
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 18
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+18)

Game 787-788: Eastern Washington at Weber State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 47.106; Weber State 58.577
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-10)

Game 789-790: Montana at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 50.503; Sacramento State 43.893
Dunkel Line: Montana by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+10 1/2)


Calgary at Los Angeles
The Kings look to build on their 4-0 record in February against a Calgary team that is 1-4 for the month.  Los Angeles is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-110).   

Game 51-52: Florida at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.534; Carolina 12.495
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-135); Under

Game 53-54: Ottawa at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.834; Philadelphia 12.699
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-215); Over

Game 55-56: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.661; Detroit 13.568
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-300); Over

Game 57-58: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.049; Tampa Bay 11.326
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over

Game 59-60: St. Louis at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.053; Nashville 12.819
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-155); Under

Game 61-62: Vancouver at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.120; Phoenix 11.229
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-135); Under

Game 63-64: Calgary at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.454; Los Angeles 12.613
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-110); Over

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Re: Thursday Service Plays


Portland at Golden State
Pick: Portland +3.5

The Warriors are getting a huge bounce here off their 144-point explosion against the Knicks. They are still not good in this role as they are just 6-9 ATS as a favorite. They are way overpriced here as they have not been favored over any winning team since November 5, before the teams settled to where they would ultimately be. Portland has not been an underdog all season on the road against a team with a losing record on the season. The Blazers are a young team and solid in the second of back-to-back nights at 12-5 ATS. The Warriors show inconsistency after a win as they are 13-43-1 ATS in their next game. We have a live dog here, and Portland gets the call.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays


Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

Tonight the current champions of the NBA, the Boston Celtics, visit the Dallas Mavericks. In this game the visiting team, the Celtics are given as favorites of the short Spread -3. The range of total points in the meeting is situated on 196 points

The Boston Celtics are in a phase rather "strange" of the season, after a series of 12 consecutive wins, the Celtics were defeated at home playing against the LA Lakers, and later against the SA Spurs, or the team of the Celtics did not managed to assert itself against these top teams, leaving some doubt about the renewal of the title for this season. The Celtics still lead the East Division with a fantastic record of 43-11 and the next 5 games will be disputed outside. Last night the Celtics visited the Hornets and won by 89-77, but in this game the big news was the injury to Ray Allen to the left in doubt for the game today, and even that will not play at 100%.

The Dallas Mavericks recovered from a fantastic way in recent games, and this is proven with the best record of 7-3 in the last 10 games. Despite this good phase of the team, the Mavericks can not tell now with one of the main markers of points and one of the most charismatic of the team, Jason Terry, who is injured and unlikely to play more this season. With this fantastic series in recent games, the Mavericks reached the 5th place in the West Division with a record of 31-20.

Tonight expect a game of low scores for several reasons which seem to indicate that. To get the Boston Celtics are known for their defensive excellence, and this was proved in yesterday's game against the Hornets, which resulted in a low score, in addition one of the main markers of points, Ray Allen, is not known whether play and even that will not play at 100%. The basis for the Mavericks, Jason Kidd is already a veteran who thinks the game well and not expect quick moves on the part of it, on the other side we have a couple Rondo will not have the task easier for the defense of Jason Kidd. Another strong reason for the Under tonight is that Dirk Nowitzki being defended by Garnett and Dirk can not believe that a very high efficiency with a defender as Garnett. Besides all this, the Mavericks played without Jason Terry is a pure "Score", a fast player and little used defensively.

For all these reasons I believe that the score does not reach the 196 points.

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Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings
PICK: Calgary Flames

The Los Angeles Kings enter into this home contest against the Calgary Flames playing their best hockey of the season, as is evident by their current 4 game winning streak, that has seen them win 7 of their L/8 games. The visiting Flames are currently operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, having lost five of their L/6 gamers. Despite of both teams current form, this game sets up well for a hungry Flames to come up with victory against a tired Kings side, that is returning home , after playing 8 of their L/9 games on the road.The Flames have in the past dominated this series , winning 8 of the L/9 meetings, out scoring the Kings by a 43-26 count . With that said , I'm betting on what must be considered the overall superior side (Calgary ) to have a wake up performance in this spot.

Final notes & Key Trends: Flames goalie Miikka Kiprusoff 11-3-1 with a 2.52 goals-against average in his last 15 games versus the Kings. Kings are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. Northwest. Kings are 3-7 in their last 10 home games

Play on the Calgary Flames

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tony George

Gonzaga -4

Yep, St,.Marys is a force in this conference but they are without their best player and leading scorer Pat Mills and the Zags are off a butt whipoping on Saturday at the hands of Memphis.Look for the Zags to bounce back against the Gaels whose 9-0 home streak will get snapped tonight without their stud. Play on Gonzaga

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Northwestern +2

The road has been Illinois' Achilles Heel all season as it has lost 4 straight Big Ten road contests. NW is 11-2 at home this season and would love to pay Illinois back for the 70-37 loss it handed them in Champagne last year. NW played Purdue to a 2-point game and should have won as it had a big lead. It also beat Michigan State. Off a big blowout win over Purdue, I see the Illini taking their foot off the gas and trying to coast through this one and it will get them burned. Illinois is 1-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ILLINOIS 54.9, OPPONENT 63.2. Take the Wildcats.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

MTi Sports

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Under

The Trailblazers are 0-9 OU (-18.2 ppg) with no rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and 0-9 OU (-8.2 ppg) after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Warriors are 0-6 OU (-12.8 ppg) as a home dog after a double digit win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them and 1-11 OU (-12.8 ppg) at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. AND, the lone over was by only 2 points AFTER an overtime session (it was 27 points under at the end of regulation).Take the Blazers and Warriors UNDER.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tommy the Swami

Golden St    - 3.5

The Warriors really have the offense in gear, which makes them extremely hard to beat. Portland may be the better team, but they have a slew of injuries and would be wiser to pull back a little here to gain the full of advantage of rest thru the All-Star break. That will hold especailly true in this spot, as they are in a BB game, playong their 6th gm in 11 days, are comfortable off 2 home wins in a row, and don't won't to gamble here chasing the red hot Warriors all over the court. This is a bad role for Portland, 18-32 away dogs off a home win. We'll go with the series flow as the home team has won 6 in a row and covered 5 of the 6, missing the cover by one pt in the solo ATS loss. GST a smokin 14-5 at the Bay this year when the total is 210(+)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

King Creole

Play: CAL-STATE FULLERTON TITANS plus the points

We're getting to the time of the Conference year in which there are a lot of 'same-season' REVENGE situations that will be presented to us. Based on our query in the Playbook CBB database, we'll be playing one of the more profitable systems tonight. And we have the added advantage of playing on a team (TITANS) that does very well in tonight's role... while playing against a team (Tigers) that does not do well in tonight's role.

15-3 ATS so far this season: All CONFERENCE teams with same-season REVENGE (SSR1) playing off a SU and ATS loss (FULLERTON STATE) versus any opponent off BB SU losses (Pacific). The Titans just lost as a favorite to Cal-Poly on Saturday (as favs). And the Tigers have dropped 2 games in a row to Long Beach State and Cal-Riverside. So e have all the components in place to qualify in this System. As far as our 'tightener', we note that if these "Revengers" are off a SU favorite loss (like the TITANS), the results shoot up to a PERFECT 3-0 ATS.

There's also a direct OPPOSITE scheduling situation for both teams that I found quite interesting. Fullerton State takes to the road off 3 straight HOME games.... while Pacific plays at home off 3 straight ROAD games. Depending on the line in these games, the DOG is the play.

18-7 ATS last 4 years: All CONFERENCE road dogs of 5 > points playing off 3+ home games (TITANS)... versus an opponent that's off 3+ road games (Tigers). If these 'value underdog' are taking on a host that's lost 2 or more games in a row (like Pacific has), the results improve to 9-1 ATS in the last 5 years.

FULLERTON STATE is a tremendous road dog in Big West conference play.

The TITANS are 9-1-1 ATS on the Big West road in the last 12 months... including 4-0-1 ATS as conference road DOGS. Already this season, they are 3-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 5 > points.

Meanwhile, PACIFIC has not done well hen installed as 'shorter' conference home favorites as of late. The TIGERS are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 2 years as Big West home favs of 8 < points. And in the last 7 years, they are 1-7 ATS in this point pread situation when playing off a SU LOSS.

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