TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
40 Dime - RAPTORS
10 Dime - MARQUETTE
10 Dime - SETON HALL
TORONTO RAPTORS - This is my strongest NBA play of the entire season as I’ve been waiting for this game since I watched the Raptors score a season-low 70 points and play their absolute worst basketball game of the season in a 78-70 loss to lowly Memphis. Tonight, they absolutely come out firing after a lengthy rest (3-1 ATS with this much rest) and completely dominate a Minnesota team that just received the worst possible news it could receive… C Al Jefferson is out for the season with a torn ACL. Just so you know, I liked the Raptors in this game before I heard the news of Jefferson, so knowing he’s not going to be a factor only strengthens my case for a big time Toronto win tonight.
Looking back at that absolute disaster of a game the Raptors had in Memphis, it’s a wonder those guys even wanted to show their faces. Listen to these individual numbers… Bargnani (1-11 shooting), Jermaine O’Neal (2-9 shooting), Jose Calderon (5-15 shooting), Anthony Parker (2-10 shooting), Jason Kapono (4-15 shooting). You get the picture. As a team, the Raptors hit just 23 of 78 total shots for a final shooting percentage of 29.5%. As pitiful as that was, I can absolutely guarantee you that will not happen again tonight because this is actually a fairly decent shooting basketball team (46% for the season)… even on the road.
Toronto could also get another favorable shot in the arm tonight as Chris Bosh could return from a knee injury… and that absolutely spells doom for a Minnesota team that now has to find someone to fill the void left vacant by Jefferson’s knee injury. The T’Wolves simply don’t have the “beef” inside to match up with Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Bosh, and even if Bosh doesn’t play the Raptors have plenty of talent in the middle. The best Minny can hope to do is have rookie Kevin Love and/or Brian Cardinal try to put a body on those guys and at least slow them down. Guess what? It’s not going to happen… not tonight. The Raptors are absolutely ticked off right now and will bring their A-game to Minneapolis to show the world that their last game was an absolute fluke.
Looking back at recent history between these two franchises, we see that Toronto has absolutely DOMINATED the T’Wolves. They’ve won the last eight H2H meetings SU and covered all eight as well, dating all the way back to December, 2004. Right now the T’Wolves are in complete disarray without their leader in the middle and you can bet they come out flat as they try to find a goto guy in Jefferson’s absence. This was a bad team WITH Jefferson in the lineup… can you imagine how poorly they will play without him? No doubt the Raptors not only get the SU win tonight, they get a double digit win by playing solid defense and hitting a much higher percentage of their shots than they shot in Memphis. Raptors in a rout.
MARQUETTE - Absolutely love the fact we’re getting some line value here tonight because of a few things. First, the Wildcats have reeled off six consecutive SU wins and seven straight point-spread covers, beating Syracuse, Providence and Pitt along the way, not to mention a complete dismantling of Cincy last week. Marquette, meanwhile, is fresh off a 57-56 loss Friday night at South Florida… a team that just gives the Eagles matchup fits. Combine those two factors and we have a five-point line in favor of the home team… and that’s simply too many for my taste.
This game pits four potential Big East Players of the Year (Cunningham, Reynolds, McNeal and James), so it immediately tells me that the team who features the better “role players” tonight will get the SU win and likely the cover. In my opinion, the Eagles have the better role players as I believe Lazar Hayward is becoming an absolute beast in the paint while Wesley Matthews is really starting to complement Jerel McNeal on the perimeter. And as good as Villanova’s stars have played recently, I just don’t believe they will get enough production from Clark and Anderson and Redding.
In the last meeting (a 79-72 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles outrebounded and out-shot ‘Nova from the field despite losing the turnover battle. Guys, the law of averages is going to catch up with this Villanova squad eventually as they’ve been hitting nearly 50% of their shots over their last six games, scoring over 93 points in their last two contests. Marquette has better shooters on the perimeter and has plenty of size inside to keep Dante Cunningham in check. They won’t stop him, but they’ll slow him and eventually get him into foul trouble as they did the last meeting.
Marquette is on current ATS runs of 8-3 in their last 11 overall, 15-6 in their last 22 vs. the Big East and 12-5 in last 17 road games. Too many points given here tonight and we’ll be glad to take them with the road team as Marquette wins SU, 80-76.
SETON HALL - Okay, I admit, I was completely fooled by Vegas when they set those ridiculous lines with Wofford and Rider Monday. I thought “surely something has to be up” because those lines should have been 7 to 9 points, yet the clearly superior teams were favored by just a point or two. Not tonight. Seton Hall is so much better than DePaul in so many ways this game shouldn’t even be close, seriously. DePaul has lost all 11 games in conference play and in order for them to cover this line tonight they have to get their first conference win. I’m sorry, but I just don’t see how in the world that can happen… even at home.
The Demons have covered a miserable 3 games in 17 attempts so far this season while the Hall is riding a four-game winning streak and now finds themselves at 13-9 on the season, including 4-6 in conference play after losing the first six. This team has gelled at the right time and they’re playing extraordinary defense on the perimeter as well as in the paint. The Pirates have covered six of their last eight games while DePaul has dropped 19 of their last 26 both overall and at home. This game will be over at the 10-minute mark of the second half. Lay the few points with the Hall and watch them roll.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
7* Conference Showdown-CBB
One only need to check the latest AP poll (released Monday) to realize that its a "down year" for the SEC in 2008-09. Not a single SEC team is represented. Both Kentucky and Florida have been in the top-25 this year but no longer. I'm not 'sold' on either team being much of an NCAA 'threat' this year but I'm siding with Kentucky in this game, as I believe this is a "must win" for the Wildcats. Kentucky reached the top-25 by winning 11 of 12 games (lone loss was on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Louisville) but promptly dropped out of the rankings with three straight losses. The first came 85-80 at Ole Miss and then came a 78-77 home loss to South Carolina. The team's third straight loss was downright 'ugly,' as the 'Cats never led (trailed by as many as 16) in a 66-57 home loss to Miss St on Feb 3. The good news for Billy Gillispie's team is that Kentucky hasn't played since and has had an entire week to prepare for Florida and to "fix what is wrong!" Meeks (25.1) and the 6-9 Patterson (18.3-9.2) carry the scoring load but the 'Cats have some solid frontcourt depth, which is important against Florida. The 6-9 Stevenson (7.9-6.7) is having a decent season and is joined by the 6-7 Harris (5.3-3.0), the 6-10 Harrellson (4.7-3.2) and the 6-7 Miller (4.2-3.4). Liggins (6.0-2.9-3.3) and Porter (3.5) join Meeks in the backcourt. Florida has a pretty nice roster but I feel the whole is NOT greater than the sum of its parts. The 6-6 Calathes (18.1-5.3-6.4) is a wonderful player and the guard combo of 5-8 freshman Walker (9.3) and senior Hodge (7.7), "ain't bad." The Gators are 'loaded' up front with the 6-8 Tyus (12.4-6.2), the 6-9 Parsons (10.4-5.9) and the 6-8 Warner (9.2-4.4) plus 6-10 freshman Kadji (5.0-2.6) and 6-5 freshman Shipman (4.0-2.3). Florida leads a tight SEC East division with a 6-2 mark, with South Carolina at 6-3, then Kentucky and Tennessee at 5-3. However, the Gators haven't been away from home much since Christmas (just four games), going 2-2. In their last road outing, they got hammered at Tennessee, losing 79-63. They could suffer a similar fate here. Meeks has to be considered the frontrunner for SEC player-of-the-year and is due for a big-time scoring effort. As Rod Stewart sang, "Tonight's the night."
SEC Showdown on Kentucky
Clemson has a recent history of falling apart after fast starts. The team opened 16-0 TY and while the team's fall has not been as dramatic as in years past, the Tigers are just 3-3 since. A 'danger sign' may be Saturday's 65-661 loss to Florida State. It came three days after the Tigers had routed then-No. 4 Duke 74-47 at home, as the Tigers blew a 19-point second-half lead (ouch!). The 6-5 Rivers (14.2-6.2) is joined on the perimeter by guards Oglesby (13.0) and Stitt (8.0), while the 6-7 Booker (14.9-5.0) and the 6-9 Sykes (8,2-5.0) start in the frontcourt,. Depth is good with guards Young and Smith (combined 7.5 PPG) and forwards Potter and Grant (10.4 PPG and 5.8 RPG, combined). As for BC, the Eagles moved to 13-2 on the season with their 85-78 upset on then-No. 1 North Carolina at Chapel Hill on Jan 4. However, a four-game slide followed. BC has recovered though, as the Eagles had won five straight before losing 93-76 on Sunday at No. 7 Wake Forest. BC was outscored 47-29 in the second half after leading by one at the half but let's give them some slack, as the talented Demon Deacons were combining off an embarrassing 27-point loss at Miami-Fla. Rice (18.0-3.9-5.5) is arguably the best player in this game and he teams with two big guards, the 6-4 Sanders (12.0-4.2) and the 6-5 Raji (10.8-6.3) on BC's perimeter. That trio is more than a match for Clemson's trio. Inside, the 6-7 Trapani (13.9-6.8) and the 6-10 Southern (5.8-5.2) should hold their own with Booker and Sykes, although it's fair to say that Clemson has more depth. That said, I really like Al Skinner over Oliver Purnell on the sidelines and I'm still waiting for Clemson's typical late-season 'crash.' It just may have begun last Saturday. The Tigers dominated the Eagles in two games last year, as Clemson won 78-56 at home last February and beat Boston College 82-48 in the ACC tourney. However, LY's BC team was a 14-17 'mess' while TY's team is 18-7 (12-3 at home) and headed back to the "Big Dance." 'They' may call this an upset but I believe the Eagles are the better team in this situation.
Oddsmaker's Error on Boston College
Weekly Wipeout Winner: 7-1 run
Former TCU head coach Neil Dougherty spent six seasons in Fort Worth compiling a 75-108 record with just one winning season. Jim Christian, who went 138-58 in six years at Kent State, brought hope to TCU. The Horned Frogs opened 13-6 but will enter this game on a four-game losing streak, falling to 13-10 with five straight ATS losses. TCU's frontcourt is not bad, with the 6-7 Langford (14.1-4.9), the 6-9 Buljan (11.7-7.2) and the 6-6 Ruzgas (10.6). The backcourt features Moss (9.7), Ebie (5.9-3.9 APG) and Mitchem (5.5). TCU beat 80-73 UNLV in Fort Worth back on Jan 10, shooting 56.6 percent from the floor. The Horned Frogs cannot be expected to shoot that well again, as they are shooting 44.3 percent on the season as a team, while averaging a modest 65.0 PPG. UNLV won 30 and 27 games the last two years and enters this game 17-6, despite consecutive OT losses. The first came at home vs San Diego St and the second at New Mexico, 73-69. UNLV could really use a win here and I expect the Rebels will get just that. The 6-7 Darger (9.6-4.6) and the 6-8 Santee (6.5-3.0) don't quite match up with TCU's frontline but UNLV's perimeter game is vastly superior. Adams (14.0-4.3-3.1), Willis (11.1-3.7-3.3) and Bellfield (6.5-3.4 APG) form an excellent guard trio plus 6-6 swingman Rougeau (10.6-7.3) ranks right behind Adams as the team's MVP. UNLV finds itself in fifth-place among the 10 MWC teams and it's about time to "make a move." The good news is that the Rebels will once again host the MWC tourney but Kruger knows he needs to get his team back on track after two straight OT setbacks. Lay the points.
Weekly Wipeout Winner on UNLV
Las Vegas Insider - NBA
The Warriors are happy to have Monta Ellis back and while he's only averaging 12.0 PPG through his first nine game, this guy averaged 20.2 PPG last season and it's just a matter of time. Golden St is just 4-5 in the nine games since his return but the Warriors are 6-2-1 ATS, which means he's making a difference where it 'counts!' However, Biedrins (13.0-11.8), who can be counted on for nightly double-doubles, is out with an ankle problem. Even with that, this Warrior team looks pretty good right now. Jackson (20.1-4.9-6.2) is having a terrific season, Crawford (19.0 PPG in his 35 games with GS) is settling in and Maggette (19.7-5.9) is healthy (for now). Azubuike (13.5-4.7) is nearly doubling his point production from his first two seasons (8.1), while guards CJ Watson (9.3) and rookie Morrow (8.4) have both been nice compliments plus center Turiaf (5.0-3.8) has brought some defensive intensity to a team which owns little of that. The Warriors average 106.8 PPG (2nd to only the Lakers) but allow a league-high 111.0 PPG, meaning this game with the Knicks, who average 104.3 PPG and allow 106.6, won't exactly be a defensive struggle. There wasn't much defense played when these teams met Nov 29 in MSG, as the Knicks won 138-125, in what remains the highest-scoring non-overtime game in the NBA this year. Former Warrior Al Harrington (21.2-6.3) had 36 points and 12 rebounds and David Lee (16.2-11.8) had 37 points and 21 rebounds in that contest. PG Chris Duhon (12.5-8.0 APG) set a New York franchise record with 22 assists in that game and along with Nate Robinson (15.0-3.5 APG), who's having a career-season, makes the Knicks 'go.' However. the Warriors didn't have Jackson in that earlier meeting and of course Ellis was still serving his suspension. This time around, both are set to go and as mentioned at the top, I like the way the Warriors have played lately. The Warriors have faced winning teams in each of their last seven games. They own wins over the Hornets, Suns and Jazz plus lost in OT to the Spurs during that span. The Knicks opened their three-game West Coast trip on Sunday in Portland, blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead and losing 109-108 on Brandon Roy's buzzer-beater. It won't get an easier tonight in Oakland, where they've lost their last six visits.
Las Vegas Insider GS Warriors
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
20* Marquette +5
10* Providence +1
10* Florida +4
10* UNLV -13
10* Knicks over 231
10* New Jersey +5.5
ACME Sports Inc.
Heat Over 203
The Sports Contrarian
5 Unit Play Knicks +4.5
5 Unit Play Thunder +12.5
Syndicate Betting Systems
10 Unit Play Cleveland -6
10 Unit Play Chicago -2.5
10 Unit Play Kentucky -4
10 Unit Play Kentucky Over 145
Bulls -2.5 (G.O.D.)
Knicks +4.5 (O.D.W.)
1000 Units Seton Hall/DePaul OVER the total
1000 Units Missouri St./Wichita St. OVER the total
1000 Units Michigan St. minus the points over Michigan
50 Units SA/New Jersey UNDER the total.
Nets +5 over Spurs
Villanova -4.5 over Marquette
Oklahoma State +8.5 over Texas
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM BLOWOUT WINNER
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
EXCLUSIVE PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB NBA WINNER
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
9000* COLLEGE HOOPS SUPER PICK WINNER
South Florida +1
8500* COLLEGE BASKETBALL CONSENSUS WINNER
Oklahoma St +8.5
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play. Take Michigan State over Michigan
The Wolverines are a bottom half of the Big 10 team and if they do not make three point shoots, they will be blown out of this game. Michigan State has yet to lose a game on the road in Big 10 play and is 6-0 in true road games this season. Raymar Morgan is questionable but regardless if he plays or not, the Spartans will emerge victories.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
7* Wichita State (-6) vs. Missouri State
We see great value in the Shockers as a small home favorite on Tuesday night. Wichita State has won 5 of their last 7 including 4 straight home wins. They lost @Evansville by 9 on Saturday, so this will be a game in which they'll want a bounce-back performance. Despite out-rebounding Evansville by 10, they shot just 2-16 from three-point range. The Shockers are 9-3 at home this season, holding opponents to just 56.7 points per game in their 12 home games. Missouri State has lost 7 straight road games and is just 1-8 on the road this season (all losses coming by a combined 11 points per game).
After starting the season at a promising 7-3, Missouri State has posted just a 3-11 record since late December. In their last 6 road games (all losses), their margins of defeat are 24, 11, 12, 14, 5, and 18 points. They have one of the worst offenses in the nation; shooting an average of 39.1% field goals this season, and 31.3% from three point range. They have just one player averaging over 10 points per game. If Wichita State gets any lead whatsoever, don’t expect to see Missouri State make a comeback.
Wichita State is coming off of that road loss to @Evansville on Saturday, as well as their January 14th road loss @Missouri State. This is a great revenge situation for the Shockers who are playing very good basketball right now, against Missouri State, who has lost 7 of their last 10. Missouri State is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings @Wichita State. Go with the Shockers at home on Tuesday night.
5* Kentucky (-4) vs. Florida
Kentucky started conference play hot, winning their first 5 games by an average of 14 points per game. Since then, they have lost 3 straight by 5, 1, and 9 points. This is a HUGE game for the Wildcats, who have had a week off since their last game, to get a big win against the SEC’s top team (although probably a little overrated). They are 11-4 at home this season, and we expect them to notch their 12th win at home on Tuesday night.
Kentucky has one of the best offenses in the SEC, scoring 77.5 points per game on 49% field goals (8th nationally). Along with their great offense, they also allow just 37.3% field goals on defense (4th nationally). Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson give the Wildcats one of the best scoring tandems in the nation, scoring a combined 43.4 points per game between the two of them. Florida has a high-octane offense, but we don’t expect them to be able to contain Meeks and Patterson on defense.
The Gators have played just 6 of their 23 games on the road this season and boast just a 3-3 record. Their wins have come against Central Florida, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. They’ve lost against the “more talented” teams they have played; Florida State, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between these two teams and we expect that trend to continue Tuesday. Go with Kentucky
4* Virginia (+11) vs. Florida State
FSU is coming off a big time resume’ building upset @ Clemson on Saturday. It was a huge win for the Noles who rallied from a 19-point second half deficit to grab the close win. They were catching the Tigers in a great spot for a letdown as Clemson had just come off a blowout win over Duke. This team was looking for a “signature win” and now they got it. Leading scorer Toney Douglas knelt at midcourt after the huge come from behind win and stated, “This win is going to go down in history.” Do you think this team is going to be concerned with a 1-7 ACC team just a few days after this monumental win? A UVA team they already beat on the road. No chance. Not only that, FSU takes on Wake Forest this Saturday which will also waver their focus here. A classic sandwich situation for the home team here which will lead to a letdown.
The one thing that stands out to us about this Virginia that is only 1-7 SU in the ACC is they have been fairly competitive in nearly all of their conference games. That’s a good mix for a cover on the road, getting double digits and facing a disinterested FSU team. If you take away the Cavs road game @ Duke where they were dominated, this team has really had a chance in every game. Their road games include a 10-point loss @ Minnesota, a 3-point loss @ Syracuse, a win @ Georgia Tech, a 3-point loss @ Virginia Tech, a 6-point loss @ Maryland and finally last Saturday just a 16-point loss @ North Carolina. The Cavs were down by 20+ @ UNC and battled to the end to close the margin. That’s a good sign for a dog. This team doesn’t quit.
The first match up between these two teams was an 11-point win for FSU on January 24th. Despite shooting only 35% (FSU shot 50%) and a terrible 28% from behind the arc (FSU shot 53% from deep) this game was not a white wash. Against UNC, this Virginia team went with a smaller line up and played zone daring the Heels to shoot from the perimeter. Don’t be surprised if they use the same strategy tonight against a Florida State team that has hit only 29% of its shots from outside the arc in ACC play (11th in the league). As we mentioned, this FSU team hit 53% of their 3-pointers @ Virginia, however that is not their strength and we don’t expect to see that happen again on Tuesday.
We look for FSU to come out flat as a pancake and this to be a close game with a good shot that UVA leads at halftime. The Noles will most likely get it together in the second half at home, but not enough to cover this one. Virginia fights to the end again and gets an easy cover.
7* PLAY UNDER 218.5 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. LA Lakers
This is one of those Total bets that you have to plug your nose to swallow as it’s not going to be a popular play. Take the UNDER in the Oklahoma City vs. LA Lakers game. The Lakers are first in the league in offensive efficiency and average 108 ppg and they’re 4th in the NBA in pace of play with 97 offensive possessions per game. Oklahoma City is 8th in the league in pace of play at 96.1 but they’re 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. Defensively it’s pretty much the same story as these two clubs are at the opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Lakers are 6th in the league while OKC is 25th. So why do we like the UNDER in this game. First off, our highly successful math-model which continues to prove itself projects a Total on this game of just 203 which is a full 15-points less than the number the oddsmakers have posted. The Lakers are coming off a brutal 6 game East Coast road trip which saw them finish up with TWO huge wins over the Celtics and Cavaliers. How motivated will they be tonight facing the Thunder AND they have the Jazz on deck. This number of 218 is simply too high as 19 of the Lakers 27 home games have resulted in less than 218 total points. The oddsmakers have posted Totals on Thunder games higher than tonight’s number of 218 just TWO times this season. Vegas had to set this number this high with the way these two team can play but the Lakers will dictate the tempo, rest starters for tomorrow night and keep this game from turning into a track meet. Easy call with the UNDER.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3*: Boston Bruins -130
Don't see the B's letting Joe Thorton get the best of them tonight in Boston. The Best of the East (arguably) faces the Best of the West (arguably). Great game to watch and it will be close, but Boston gets it done in style. The Sharks are 1-4 on the road against strong teams while the B's are 6-1 in the same position.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3-Unit Play. Take #742 Boston College (+3) over Clemson (9 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
The home team has dominated this series, with the host winning all seven games. I think that this is somewhat of a trap for Clemson. They got way up in their blowout of Duke but then lost at home against FSU over the weekend. I think they are a little up-and-down right now and that the Eagles are too good to pass up as a home dog.
4-Unit Play. Take #744 Kentucky (-4) over Florida (9 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
The Wildcats have been an up-and-down team all season long and I think that they will be way, way up for this one. Florida is a young team and they are heading to Lexington off a big home win over South Carolina. The home team is 4-0 ATS in this series and Kentucky pulled the upset last March in the last meeting. I think they get the cash in this spot.
3-Unit Play. Take #739 Missouri State (+6) over Wichita State (8 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
The public is pounding away on the Shockers but I'm not buying. They just aren't a very good team. Missouri State has actually won five of the last six meetings between these teams, including a 13-point win by the Bears over the Shockers just last month. I think we're in for another surprise in the MVC.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #723 Providence (+1) over South Florida (8 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
South Florida is in a prime letdown spot after their big upset over Marquette on Friday. This is still the same Bulls that lost to St. John's by 17 points just a few days before that though. Providence has won four straight in this series and they should take this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #719 Michigan State (-4) over Michigan (7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
Michigan put up a good fight against the Huskies on Saturday but didn't get it done. Now they are matched up against a hot Spartans squad. Michigan State has dominated this series recently. They have won seven of the last nine meetings and won by 15 or more points in three of their last four victories over their rivals. Tom Izzo has his team playing tough on the road. They have won eight straight games away from home. They are 7-1 ATS in those games and I think they keep it going.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Dr. Bob Opinions
Tuesday NBA Opinion
New York (+4) over GOLDEN STATE
Golden State is coming off an impressive win over Utah, but the Warriors are just 12-43-1 ATS following their last 56 victories and 3-22 straight up following their last 25 wins. My ratings favor Golden State by just 3 points in this game and I’ll lean with New York plus the points.
Tuesday College Opinions
HOFSTRA (+1 ½) over Old Dominion
Old Dominion beat me on Saturday, but the Monarchs are still just 18-41-1 ATS in conference games following a conference win when facing a decent team (i.e. a team with a win percentage of .444 or higher), including 12-36-1 ATS when not an underdog of more than 3 points. Tonight ODU is giving a point or two to a Hofstra team that is 12-4 ATS since 2003 as a home underdog or pick (2-0 this season). My ratings call this game even and I’ll lean with Hofstra at pick or as a dog.
BOSTON COLLEGE (+3 ½) over Clemson
Clemson applies to a negative 45-122-2 ATS situation tonight that is based on their upset loss to Florida State, and my ratings favor Clemson by just 1 ½ points in this game. However, Boston College has a long history of playing worse at home than they do on the road and they actually don’t have a home court edge at all. But, I would still favor Clemson by only 3 points even with zero home court advantage for the Eagles (using only games against decent teams). I’d be on Boston College as a Best Bet here if they were fully healthy, but Rakim Sanders is questionable with an injured risk and his defense alone is worth a point per game. Tyrese Rice, the Eagles star player, is also not 100% after injuring his calf on Saturday (although he’s probable to play). I’ll lean with Boston College, but I’ll resist making the Eagles a Best Bet due to the questionable status of Sanders.