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Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Ryan

Colorado vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -21

After Ryan's break from an unreal winning streak in the bowls (14-1)+ a 3-0 15* NFL run and Super Bowl winner Ryan went 4-0 ATS Friday. Now, get this SEC 10* Titan play of the Month that is reinforced by Ryan's extensive winning research. Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Oklahoma as the host Colorado slated to start at 1:30 EST. AiS shows a 71% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 21 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 55-25 ATS for 69% since 2003. Play against dogs of 10 or more points off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a home win. Colorado is a poor team but they do shoot the ball well from the free throw line. Not good news today though as Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Colorado is coming into this game winners of 5 straight ATS games, but they are not a good rebounding team at all. Over the past 6 games they have had 30 or fewer rebounds in each game. Oklahoma

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Rocketman Sports

Rice vs. Houston U     
Play: Rice +19

Rice is 11-3 ATS overall vs Houston since 1997 including 5-1 ATS at Houston since 1997. Cougars are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. Cougars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Owls are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Owls are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Houston. Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Rice tonight!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LT Profits

Denver U +8

The Denver Pioneers may be 0-10 straight up in their true road games this season, but they have actually been money-making machines this year, and we look for them to hang tough with the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans tonight for yet another cover.

You see, the Pioneers have been one of the best teams in the country against the spread, going a lucrative 14-4 ATS overall. Yes, they are still winless on the road, but it is not as if they have been getting destroyed in those games as Denver is still 7-2 ATS away from home.

The Pioneers also enter this contest on a remarkable 12-1 ATS run in their last 13 lined games, and their only ATS loss during this run was a two-point overtime loss as one-point favorites vs. Arkansas State. Furthermore, Denver is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 Sun Belt Conference games.

Now Little Rock is 16-6 straight up, but they are just 10-11 ATS to this point, including a poor 3-8 ATS here at home. They may be 8-3 straight up in this building, but they are only winning these games by an average of +2.9 points, which accounts for their bad record vs. the number. Obviously, that slim average margin would not be good enough to cover this spot either.

Look for Denver to continue their fantastic ATS run here vs. a suspect home team.

Pick: Denver +8

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Re: Saturday Service Plays


Florida Panthers @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals

The price makes the Capitals too "expensive" to qualify as one of my premium selections. That said, I still feel that the current number, which has fallen slightly from its opener, provides us with solid value on the favorite.

Give the Panthers credit, they're off back to back victories and are 4-1 their last five. However, their last three games came against the Islanders (twice) and Leafs, two of the worst teams in the league. For the season, they're 12-15 on the road, getting outscored by a 3.1 to 2.9 margin and outshot by a 34.8 to 27.1 count.

Conversely, the Capitals are 21-5 at home, outscoring opponents by a commanding 3.6 to 2.3 margin, while outshooting them by a 32.6 to 27.8 count. The Caps lost their last game and they also lost this year's only meeting with the Panthers. Those losses should work in our favor here, providing Washington with plenty of motivation. Note that the Capitals are a profitable 14-3 (+8.1) the last 17 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. They're also 18-6 the last 24 times that they allowed four goals or less in their previous game. Consider laying the wood.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays


Memphis at Gonzaga
The Tigers are 8-5 ATS in non-conference games this season and look to take advantage of a Gonzaga team that is just 6-8 ATS against teams with a winning record.  Memphis is the underdog pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Zags favored by only 2 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+5 1/2).   

Game 515-516: Cincinnati at Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 61.067; Georgetown 70.582
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+10 1/2)

Game 517-518: Towson at Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 46.644; Hofstra 52.726
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 6
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 8
Dunkel Pick: Towson (+8)

Game 519-520: Syracuse at Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 67.502; Villanova 77.150
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 5
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-5)

Game 521-522: Mississippi at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 63.368; Vanderbilt 64.773
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+6 1/2)

Game 523-524: Notre Dame at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 66.116; UCLA 75.220
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 9
Vegas Line: UCLA by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+10 1/2)

Game 525-526: NC Wilmington at Northeastern
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 45.636; Northeastern 62.123
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC Wilmington (+20 1/2)

Game 527-528: Tennessee at Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 69.557; Auburn 63.390
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3)

Game 529-530: Fordham at George Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 43.646; George Washington 53.749
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 10
Vegas Line: George Washington by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+12 1/2)

Game 531-532: Colorado at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 55.146; Oklahoma 77.810
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 21
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-21)

Game 533-534: Miami (FL) at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 68.785; Duke 78.282
Dunkel Line: Duke by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 14
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+14)

Game 535-536: Northern Illinois at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 45.412; Buffalo 63.331
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 18
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-15 1/2)

Game 537-538: George Mason at James Madison
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 59.860; James Madison 59.259
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 1
Vegas Line: George Mason by 4
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (+4)

Game 539-540: South Alabama at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 50.998; Western Kentucky 59.641
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 7
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-7)

Game 541-542: Pittsburgh at DePaul
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 75.900; DePaul 57.649
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 18
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-14 1/2)

Game 543-544: Kent State at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 58.546; Ball State 54.455
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 4
Vegas Line: Kent State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-3)

Game 545-546: Texas at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 70.417; Nebraska 70.526
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Texas by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+3 1/2)

Game 547-548: Arkansas at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 59.273; Mississippi State 70.065
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 11
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-7 1/2)

Game 549-550: Arizona at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 65.913; Oregon 60.954
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3 1/2)

Game 551-552: Oklahoma State at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 66.700; Kansas 76.186
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 12
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+12)

Game 553-554: Kansas State at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 61.924; Texas A&M 69.862
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 8
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 3
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-3)

Game 555-556: Southern Illinois at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 58.076; Missouri State 62.031
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 4
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (-2)

Game 557-558: Valparaiso at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 52.493; Detroit 52.897
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+2 1/2)

Game 559-560: Cleveland State at Loyola-Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 61.263; Loyola-Chicago 52.379
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-7 1/2)

Game 561-562: Providence at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 63.473; West Virginia 77.993
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 11
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-11)

Game 563-564: Utah at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 65.861; Wyoming 60.227
Dunkel Line: Utah by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 7
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+7)

Game 565-566: Virginia at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 60.101; North Carolina 82.853
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 23
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 25 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+25 1/2)

Game 567-568: Delaware at Georgia State
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 50.164; Georgia State 50.447
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+3 1/2)

Game 569-570: Indiana at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 52.140; Michigan State 77.142
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 25
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 22
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-22)

Game 571-572: Tulane at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 52.831; Marshall 57.527
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+6 1/2)

Game 573-574: Eastern Michigan at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 39.935; Ohio 60.130
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 20
Vegas Line: Ohio by 16
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-16)

Game 575-576: Georgia at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 55.918; South Carolina 69.010
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 13
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 15
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+15)

Game 577-578: Northwestern at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 63.823; Iowa 64.378
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 1
Vegas Line: Iowa by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+2 1/2)

Game 579-580: Missouri at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 71.039; Iowa State 60.218
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 11
Vegas Line: Missouri by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-7 1/2)

Game 581-582: Michigan at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 65.182; Connecticut 78.664
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 18
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+18)

Game 583-584: UAB at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 65.122; Southern Mississippi 64.223
Dunkel Line: UAB by 1
Vegas Line: UAB by 2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+2)

Game 585-586: Columbia at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 587-588: Old Dominion at Drexel
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 55.140; Drexel 60.659
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-2)

Game 589-590: Central Florida at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 56.000; East Carolina 57.182
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+2)

Game 591-592: Florida State at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 66.860; Clemson 73.326
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+9 1/2)

Game 593-594: Bowling Green at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 53.471; Central Michigan 51.780
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green

Game 595-596: Yale at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 597-598: Cornell at Pennsylvania
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 599-600: Troy at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 54.899; Florida Atlantic 49.012
Dunkel Line: Troy by 6
Vegas Line: Troy by 1
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-1)

Game 601-602: Xavier at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 71.969; Duquesne 62.450
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-6 1/2)

Game 603-604: New Mexico State at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 54.100; Nevada 62.785
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-6 1/2)

Game 605-606: LaSalle at St. Bonaventure
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 59.390; St. Bonaventure 54.624
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-2 1/2)

Game 607-608: Brown at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 609-610: Butler at Wright State
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 65.739; Wright State 67.866
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 2
Vegas Line: Butler by 2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+2)

Game 611-612: Miami (OH) at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 57.418; Toledo 50.824
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+9 1/2)

Game 613-614: Arkansas State at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 49.865; Florida International 50.767
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 1
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+2)

Game 615-616: William & Mary at VA Commonwealth
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 47.278; VA Commonwealth 60.631
Dunkel Line: VA Commonwealth by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: VA Commonwealth by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+15 1/2)

Game 617-618: Bradley at Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 59.639; Drake 59.837
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Drake by 3
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+3)

Game 619-620: UL Lafayette at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 47.880; North Texas 55.257
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: North Texas by 5
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-5)

Game 621-622: Youngstown State at Illinois-Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 51.562; Illinois-Chicago 59.168
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+11 1/2)

Game 623-624: Baylor at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 66.470; Texas Tech 60.095
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Baylor by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-4 1/2)

Game 625-626: WI-Milwaukee at WI-Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 55.625; WI-Green Bay 67.148
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 9
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-9)

Game 627-628: Denver at Arkansas Little Rock
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 50.903; Arkansas Little Rock 56.415
Dunkel Line: Arkansas Little Rock by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas Little Rock by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+8 1/2)

Game 629-630: Wichita State at Evansville
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 55.682; Evansville 60.129
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Evansville by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+5 1/2)

Game 631-632: UL Monroe at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 48.903; New Orleans 51.123
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL Monroe (+5 1/2)

Game 633-634: UC Davis at UC Riverside
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 53.457; UC Riverside 54.153
Dunkel Line: UC Riverside by 1
Vegas Line: UC Riverside by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC Davis (+3 1/2)

Game 635-636: Minnesota at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 69.168; Ohio State 69.379
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5 1/2)

Game 637-638: UNLV at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 67.107; New Mexico 70.000
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 3
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+4 1/2)

Game 639-640: UTEP at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 62.515; Tulsa 69.076
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-4 1/2)

Game 641-642: Arizona State at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 66.631; Oregon State 65.577
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 1
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+8 1/2)

Game 643-644: Memphis at Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 73.176; Gonzaga 75.839
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+5 1/2)

Game 645-646: Rice at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 48.128; Houston 65.994
Dunkel Line: Houston by 18
Vegas Line: Houston by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+19 1/2)

Game 647-648: TCU at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 56.876; Colorado State 58.373
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-1)

Game 649-650: Cal Poly at CS-Fullerton
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 48.981; CS-Fullerton 55.790
Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 7
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 10
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+10)

Game 651-652: Louisiana Tech at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 51.686; Utah State 66.286
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+17 1/2)

Game 653-654: San Francisco at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 45.137; San Diego 57.956
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10)

Game 655-656: Pacific at Long Beach State
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 54.018; Long Beach State 54.420
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+1 1/2)

Game 657-658: Pepperdine at Loyola Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 42.343; Loyola Marymount 39.779
Dunkel Line: Pepperdine by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pepperdine by 1
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (-1)

Game 659-660: UC Santa Barbara at UC Irvine
Dunkel Ratings: UC Santa Barbara 49.443; UC Irvine 53.270
Dunkel Line: UC Irvine by 4
Vegas Line: UC Irvine by 2
Dunkel Pick: UC Irvine (-2)

Game 661-662: Air Force at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 48.835; San Diego State 70.203
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-18 1/2)

Game 663-664: Boise State at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 54.773; San Jose State 57.387
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+5 1/2)

Game 665-666: Washington State at California
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 68.611; California 68.274
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: California by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+6 1/2)

Game 667-668: St. Mary's (CA) at Santa Clara
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 61.109; Santa Clara 58.646
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 4
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+4)

Game 669-670: Idaho at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 53.289; Hawaii 57.458
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 4
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-1 1/2)

Game 671-672: Siena at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 62.946; Rider 56.146
Dunkel Line: Siena by 7
Vegas Line: Siena by 5
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-5)

Game 673-674: Marist at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 47.608; Iona 55.829
Dunkel Line: Iona by 8
Vegas Line: Iona by 10
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+10)

Game 675-676: TN-Chattanooga at Furman
Dunkel Ratings: TN-Chattanooga 52.658; Furman 45.455
Dunkel Line: TN-Chattanooga by 7
Vegas Line: TN-Chattanooga by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TN-Chattanooga (-5 1/2)

Game 677-678: Appalachian State at Elon
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 45.376; Elon 50.878
Dunkel Line: Elon by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Elon by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (-2 1/2)

Game 679-680: Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 48.938; Jacksonville State 52.051
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 3
Vegas Line: Jacksonville State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (-2)

Game 681-682: College of Charleston at Davidson
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 52.584; Davidson 71.223
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Davidson by 17
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-17)

Game 683-684: The Citadel at Western Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 51.579; Western Carolina 52.063
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 6
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+6)

Game 685-686: Samford at Wofford
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 47.876; Wofford 52.346
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Wofford by 4
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (-4)

Game 687-688: Manhattan at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 51.200; Loyola-MD 54.641
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+5 1/2)

Game 669-690: NC Greensboro at Georgia Southern
Dunkel Ratings: NC Greensboro 43.354; Georgia Southern 49.250
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 6
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 9
Dunkel Pick: NC Greensboro (+9)

Game 691-692: SE Missouri State at Eastern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 36.798; Eastern Illinois 55.002
Dunkel Line: Eastern Illinois by 18
Vegas Line: Eastern Illinois by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (-14 1/2)

Game 693-694: Tennessee Martin at Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Martin 53.128; Tennessee State 45.973
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Martin by 7
Vegas Line: Tennessee Martin by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+8 1/2)

Game 695-696: Morehead State at Tennessee Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 50.067; Tennessee Tech 52.920
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 3
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (-2 1/2)

Game 697-698: Murray State at Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 50.764; Austin Peay 57.216
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (-1 1/2)

Game 699-700: Idaho State at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 48.981; Northern Colorado 52.381
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 4
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+4)

Game 701-702: Montana at Montana State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 52.618; Montana State 51.181
Dunkel Line: Montana by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+2)

Game 703-704: Northern Arizona at Eastern Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 50.197; Eastern Washington 49.924
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 1
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+1)

239777 Posts
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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

Wichita State vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville -5

Evansville has dropped 11 of its last 12 in this series and the Purple Aces best chance for a victory is right here.

In the January 25th meetings between these two MVC schools, Evansville owned the advantage for most of the game. With just eight ticks left on the clock, Wichita State's Toure' Murry hit a game-winning three-point shot to lift the Shockers to the 51-50 victory. That loss was a tough pill to swallow for the Purple Aces and they'll be primed to pick up a little revenge.

WSU has quietly won five of its last six. However, the road hasn't been kind to the Shockers. In their last 29 games on foreign courts, Wichita State is a woeful 5-24 SU and 10-16-2 ATS. Also, as a guest going into revenge and matched up against an opponent that enters off a pointspread loss, the Shockers are a nasty 18-28 ATS and have dropped seven straight to the line in this role.

Evansville has always been a tough out when running the floor in Roberts Stadium. In fact, when priced as a single-digit home favorite, the Purple Aces have cruised to a profitable 32-14 ATS record in their last 46 games including a solid 17-7 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss. Also, when battling an opponent that checks in off back-to-back spread wins, the Purple Aces have been golden notching a superb 16-7 ATS mark!

Evansville played well in its first meeting against Wichita State but fell short at the buzzer. This time the Purple Aces will finish the job. Take Evansville.

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maddux sports

Today's Free Pick is College of Charleston +17

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UCLA -10 over Notre Dame

To say Notre Dame has fallen apart would be an understatement.  Most pundits put this team in the Top 10 earlier in the year when they got off to their 10-2 start, but 12-9 those days are long gone.  I don't even think this team should make the NCAA Tournament right now after their double digit loss to Cincinnati.  UCLA on the other hand is 8-2 in Pac-10 play and 18-4 overall.  On Wednesday I was impressed with their 76-60 win over USC and I'm impressed with how they are only allowing 60.5 ppg while scoring 76.1 ppg.  The Irish aren't playing good enough defense to contain the Bruins, while UCLA will find a way to slow down Luke Harangody and the Irish offense.  83-69 UCLA

Villanova -5.5 over Syracuse

I don't feel as strong about this game but it's on ESPN today so I figured I'd put a small amount of action on it myself.   The Wildcats have won four straight games to get to 18-4 overall and 6-3 in the Big East, while the Orange have been sliding a little bit, losing their last three games in January.  Sure they just beat West Virginia, but the backcourt really carried them through in that game and they won't be able to score on the more athletic Villanova team quite as easily.  This Wildcat team is putting up 75 ppg with Dante Cunningham, Scottie Reynolds, and Corey Fisher all averaging double digits.  I just can't see the Orange stealing one from Villanova on their home floor, but I can see the Wildcats winning by double digits.  I'm predicting a 76-68 final in this one

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Houston Rockets -7.5
Dallas Mavericks -7

Miami-OH -9.5
Syracuse/Villanova o149

Buffalo Sabres -120
Carolina Hurricanes +110
Florida Panthers +180

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The Samford Bulldogs have quietly been one of the better teams against the spread in the county, and we look for that ATS success to continue tonight when they visit the Wofford Terriers.

The Bulldogs are coming off of a loss as road favorites at Furman on Thursday, dropping them to a still excellent 11-5 ATS, but they are better suited by this underdog role. In fact, Samford is 6-2 vs. the number when getting points this season. They are also in a revenge spot here, after losing outright at home to these Terriers last month.

Wofford makes for a rather shaky favorite, as they are under .500 straight up at 9-11 and they have not done a good job of protecting their home court, going a modest 4-3 SU and a poor 1-4 ATS in this building. In fact, the Terriers enter this contest on a 1-6 ATS run, mainly due to  a bad defense that is allowing 71.2 points per game on 47.2 percent shooting on the season and 75.8 points on a disgusting 49.8 percent shooting the last five games.

Meanwhile, Samford is allowing just 62.1 point per game on the year and a miniscule 59.0 points the last five games, so we will gladly take the better defense getting points in this spot.

Pick: Samford +3

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Arkansas at Mississippi State
Pick: Arkansas +7.5

Arkansas has found the going tough in recent SEC play, but they remain a viable threat to the Bulldogs who have been just 2-2 in their last four. The Bulldogs have had offensive droughts recently as a team that was scoring 70+ in five straight games has now gone stone cold offensively. They haven't managed to score more than 67 points in their last four games - averaging just 63 points per game. The Razorbacks have stepped up against the better teams as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage on the season. The Bulldogs are at their worst in this role, having gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a 7-12.5 point home favorite. I like the Razorbacks in this one.

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MTi Sports

Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

The Clippers are 0-11 ATS (-8.2 ppg) as a road dog after a win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them and 0-11 ATS (-6.1 ppg) off a win that broke at least a five-game losing streak. Take Atlanta.

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Larry Ness

Kansas State @ Texas A&M
PICK: Texas A&M

The Wildcats enter today's game in College Station with A&M on a four-game winning streak. While two of the wins were over Big 12 bottom-feeders Colorado and Iowa St, KSU also won 88-72 at home over Missouri and last Saturday, 85-81 in OT at Texas. However, winning a second straight Saturday on the road in this state of Texas, is NOT going to happen. KSU looks to control the tempo and did a great job of that in beating Missouri and Texas but I don't think A&M will allow that to happen. The Aggies are 13-1 SU at home this year, losing only a hard-fought game to Oklahoma, 69-63. A&M was coming off back-to-back wins when it lost 77-71 in Norman this past Wednesday, but it should be noted that A&M played very well vs the Sooners, actually leading that game with around six minutes to go before fading (those things happen against Blake Griffin and the Sooners). Guards Clemente (14.3) and Pullen (13.6) are KSU's only double digit scorers and in A&M, the Wildcats face an opponent which can go nine-deep (nine players have been in at least 21 of the team's 23 games, while averaging a minimum of 12 MPG). Six players are averaging at least 20 MPG, with 6-7 swingman Carter (13.0-4.0), guard Sloan (11.3), the 6-9 Davis (10.7-6.2) and the 6-10 Elonu (10.1-7.5) all averaging double digits. Mark Turgeon will switch up his defenses and I look for the Aggies to win this one fairly handily, as KSU's modest winning streak ends.

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David Malinsky

Air Force @ San Diego State
PICK: Air Force

As February approaches we get a chance to begin riding one of our favorite horses in the sports betting field, the classic (to us, at least) “Revenge Game That Is Not”. This one fits the value elements almost perfectly. Through the years we have cashed a lot of big road underdog plays in the second go-round of NCAA conference action in February with a particular common denominator – these big dogs were all playing with revenge. And at the same time, they were not. So let’s get to it.

When you are struggling as badly as Air Force is right now, and the way that most teams would be if they are taking a +18 in a conference game, the notion of “revenge” is not much of a factor. If you got whipped on your own court by a particular opponent, there is not much pretense that you are going to go on the road and turn the tables. And that is part of why we get such value for these games – we are playing on ugly teams that draw no market interest, because the markets can easily see that revenge is not a factor. But indeed it is, for the other team.

We are not so much betting on these underdogs as we are bucking the favorite. And from a value standpoint it is an ideal concept – the better of a season the favorite is having, the less likely they are to get big margins in these return matches. If you are having a good season it means that there are bigger games ahead, and likely a tournament appearance, and that works against them in two ways in these settings. First, it is awfully hard to get excited about a team that you have already dominated on the road. Second, these return matches provide a chance to take a breather in between more serious challenges.

San Diego State is the ideal foil. Steve Fisher’s Aztecs are precariously short on depth, especially with Lorenzo Wade likely sitting this one out. That makes getting big margins difficult enough most nights, but off of a draining overtime win at U.N.L.V., and with another major Mountain West showdown at Utah on deck, this is not a spot to extend any more energy than is necessary. At 16-5 it is time to just win and move on, and Fisher would be more than happy to win this by far less than tonight’s spread. Meanwhile the Falcons are a classic play-on, a scrappy team that plays hard every night, and brings a different mental discipline from most struggling sides. Jeff Reynolds shook up his lineup by starting three freshmen against Brigham Young earlier in the week, and while the final score was another loss and non-cover, note that they had the lead outright at 45-43 with 10 minutes remaining. They played with a lot of enthusiasm and energy, and that will be enough to stay within this price against a favorite that will not bring a lot of passion to the Arena.

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Andre Gomes

CHI +7 vs DAL

I understand that Dallas was spanked in Dallas last Thursday in front of national audience and they look to make a bounce back tonight. However, 7 points is just too much for this game as their opponent is motivated and playing their best basketball of the season.

For starters, Dallas is not that kind of team who reacts powerfully after a loss like the Cavs who are 9-0 ATS after a loss or Orlando (7-4 ATS), No! They are 2-5 ATS at home after a loss, which tells us that they aren't a tough team to beat when they are in a bad mood. Also it's important to say that they aren't a typical powerful home team as well as in this season they are only 7-15 ATS at home and 7-12 ATS being home favorites. My point is that I can't see them as powerful home team who will spank anyone in this game just because they lost by 28 points in the last game and look for redemption tonight.

They will play against Chicago, who is playing a great basketball lately. We are used to see this team struggled badly on the road, but this isn't the case of this last road trip, as they are 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng are all playing great with a lot of confidence and this team was competitive in some tough places like Phoenix, Houston or New Orleans. They didn't show any kind of fear in the last game against the Hornets without Chris Paul, as they gained an early lead and never looked back. During this road trip they shot 50% of the field and averaged 25.8 apg for just 11.0 TO/game.

Usually I don't like to bet on teams that are playing the final road trip game as usually, we are dealing with tired team who just wanted to go home. This is not the case of the Bulls as they had 2 days off to rest and prepare this game. In my opinion, the X factor will be the matchup in the Point Guard position: Derrick Rose vs Jason Kidd.

Jason Kidd remains a great player, but while facing younger explosive opponents, he struggles to stop those guys because Jason Terry is also a terrible defender player. Did you notice that Deron Williams ended last game shooting 11-20 FG for 34 points and 12 assists?! Or Brandon Roy ended with 10-20 FG for 26 points, or Dwayne Wade ended with 13-23 FG for 30 points. My last example will be the supreme mismatch: Devin Harris torched Jason Kidd and the Mavs by scoring 41 points for a stellar performance of 14-25 from the field. Well, Derrick Rose is playing terrifying basketball on this road trip scoring 16.8 ppg for 60% from the field and dishing 6.8 assists per game.

I think that this game will be a ballgame decided only down the stretch and I see the Bulls winning outright in here. Dallas in the last home against Portland almost blew a lead of 9 points in 30 seconds and the Bulls are an extremely confident team right now. They won on the road in Phoenix outscoring them by 34-28 in the final quarter and even in the last defeat in Houston they almost rallied back the game and outscore the Rockets 34-28 in the last quarter. I'm taking the Bulls in here.

Note: split your wager,

2/3 units on Bulls + 7

1/3 Units on Bulls ML @ +260

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Blade wrote:


Arkansas at Mississippi State
Pick: Arkansas +7.5

Arkansas has found the going tough in recent SEC play, but they remain a viable threat to the Bulldogs who have been just 2-2 in their last four. The Bulldogs have had offensive droughts recently as a team that was scoring 70+ in five straight games has now gone stone cold offensively. They haven't managed to score more than 67 points in their last four games - averaging just 63 points per game. The Razorbacks have stepped up against the better teams as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage on the season. The Bulldogs are at their worst in this role, having gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a 7-12.5 point home favorite. I like the Razorbacks in this one.

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -142

The Islanders started the season doing well on the road as they posted wins in five of their first 10 games. What has happened since has been brutal. The Islanders have won just one time in their last 15 on the road, so there simply isn't any value on this team especially with a low moneyline pinned on the Lightning in this one. The Lightning have dropped four straight themselves, but three of those were on the road. They return home for this one where they have been 3-1 in their last four. The Islanders are cashing just 24 of their last 78 as a road dog, and I don't expect them to be cashing this one either. The Lightning gets the call.

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Ted Sevransky

Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Chicago Bulls

I bet against the Bulls more than once in January, as they suffered a significant drop-off from a 13-14 start. Vinny Del Negro’s squad went 5-13 SU in their next 18 ballgames. But the light switch has gone on for the young Bulls, winning four out of five t on their current road trip. Del Negro: “Winning builds confidence, that’s the bottom line….I like our mind-set right now.”

Even though I’ve criticized the Bulls, they are a very talented and deep ballclub. Chicago has the better players at nearly every position in this matchup, as well as the superior bench. Ben Gordon, Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah—these guys were all lottery picks, and have begun to play like it. The Rose- Jason Kidd matchup, in particular, works strongly in Chicago’s favor. Kidd’s defense is non-existent these days, and younger, quicker point guards are running circles around him.

We’re seeing an inflated pointspread here on the final game of a long, grueling seven game trip for Chicago. Bettors think Dallas has something to prove off their ugly loss at Utah on Thursday Night. That extra value is very good news for Bulls bettors when we consider Dallas’s 6-15 ATS mark as home chalk so far this season. 2* Take Chicago.

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