Friday Service Plays

Re: Friday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

Charlotte Bobcats at Denver Nuggets

At first, the Nuggets were strictly an Over team without Carmello Anthony. Now, they have gone Under in four straight. Still, Denver is 12-6 to the Over when playing below than .500 competition. Now, Anthony is expected to make his return tonight. Charlotte has gone Over in eight of 12 against Western Conference competition. Denver is also a strong Over play in non-conference games, cashing 48 of 73 tickets (including 10-5 this year).

Play on: Over

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Dave Price

1 Unit on Wizards +10.5

Washington has been terrible on the road this season but it falls into a unique system tonight that has me confident that it will be competitive. Washington is 10-1 ATS in road games after a division game over the last 2 seasons, actually winning in this spot by an average score of 95 to 92.6. Washington played Philly to a tight 6-point game the last time these teams faced off and it is coming off an embarrassing loss to Miami. Expect Washington to bounce back and be competitive in this spot. Take the points!

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Yale +2

Columbia has been blown out in back to back games and has dropped 5 of 6 while Yale comes in having won 5 in a row. Yale's defense is just playing too well right now for Columbia to get back in the win column tonight. First off Yale is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at Columbia and plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (YALE) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more are a strong 29-6 ATS since 1997. Lastly, Columbia is 9-21 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take Yale.

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Matt Rivers

For Friday take the points with the Nets in Hotlanta.

Atlanta has been great at Philips Arena this season but things have not been all that great of late with Al Horford out of the lineup and I don't expect a 180 right here as the second year center is still out injured.

The Nets have been a better than expected team so far this season and especially so on the road. New Jersey was expected to be completely dreadful this season as Vegas had their win total in the 20's but Devin Harris is blossoming into a total stud and Vince Carter and a few other players are still good enough to get it done.

The Hawks are a quality team that should make the playoffs once again as Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Mike Bibby and Marvin Williams are really good but they have dropped three straight and 8 of 12 and have failed to cash the ticket in two of their last three at home.

This is far from a mortal lock as the 20-26 Nets are still far from being even good as losing seven of eight would attest to but until the Hawks start rising up again I can't help but back this capable enough dog at this too good to pas up number.

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Karl Garrett

Oklahoma City +8 at UTAH

Now 5-0 the last 5 days, 48-29-4 overall with my comp plays!

Tonight, take the points with the Thunder as they head to Salt Lake City for a date with the Jazz.

Oklahoma City has been playing much better since the start of the season, as the Thunder are actually 6-4 straight up their last 10 games, and do come to the Energy Solutions Center having won and covered their last pair, and 3 of their last 4 overall!

Sure, Okie is just 3-18 straight up on the road this year, but they are 15-6 with the points on the road, and they do catch the Jazzmen in a free-fall right now, as Jerry Sloan's club is looking to end a 4-game straight up slide, and a 6-game against the spread slide!

Utah is just 3-10 against the spread this month, and that does include a 114-93 loss at Oklahoma City back on January 14th!

The Thunder is on a 3-0 spread run in this series, and they have covered 7 of the last 9 series meetings overall.

G-Man taking the points tonight.

4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Boston -5' at DETROIT

We can't make a case for the points tonight at the Auburn Palace, as Boston is just too good for this Detroit team.

The Celtics latest winning streak is at 9 straight, and they have covered in 8 of those 9. Boston is also a positive 15-7 straight up on the road this year, and that includes an 88-76 romp past the Pistons at the Auburn Palace in November as the one point underdog.

In fact, Boston has won and covered both meetings this year with Detroit, and they are on an 8-2 straight up, and against the spread run (playoffs included) the last 10 times they have tangled with their Eastern Conference "rival".

Detroit has been a bust this season, and they come into this one having lost their last pair of home games both straight up, and against the spread, and they are just 13-9 straight up at home, and a worse 7-15 against the spread on their own hardwood!

Boston once again shows why they are the class of the East Conference with the road win, and cover tonight.

5♦ BOSTON

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Chris Jordan

Princeton -1' at DARTMOUTH

First game in Ivy League play for the Tigers, and I'm goingt to side with them here, as they take on a 3-13 Dartmouth team that has thee worst overall record in the conference and bank on just one player to do it all for them. Not a good thing against an always tenacious Princeton defense.

Granted, senior forward Alex Barnett is a potential first-team Ivy League player who can fire from anywhere on the wood, but with the Tigers riding a three-game win streak into this one, the momentum is on our side tonight.

Princeton is 3-0 ATS onthe highway this season, and allow me to point out this is a Dartmouth team that just snapped an eight-game losing streak, and those losses included Quinnipiac, Stony Brook, New Hampshire and Army.

Not exactly competition to write home about.

Take the road team in this one.

1♦ PRINCETON

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Jorge Gonzalez

Boston -5.5

The Boston Celtics (38-9) will be looking to keep their perfect streak alive when they roll into Detroit and take on the misfiring Pistons. After hitting a road bump in the season that saw the Celtics go 2-7, Boston looks like the team that started the season a franchise-best 29-2.

Boston has won their last nine straight games by an average margin of 16.5 points per game. The Celtics have rallied as a team and has had several players step up as a whole to help the ?Big Three? of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Peirce.

Eddie House has been unconscious in three of his last four scoring at least 23 points. He is nailing 22 of 32 ( 68.8%) during the stretch and has his teammates campaigning for inclusion in the 3-point contest during All-Star weekend.

"He needs to be in the 3-point contest," said Kevin Garnett, selected as an All-Star starter. "That's what this press conference is about: Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are here to say that we think Eddie House needs to be in the 3-point contest."

The chemistry that the Celtics have is missing from the once proud and cohesive Detroit Pistons. The Pistons were happy to get a 98-89 victory over the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves their last time out.

"We really needed it. I think we needed it more than (the Timberwolves),"  center Rasheed Wallace said of the victory. "They were pretty hot here in the month of January. I think we just wanted a little more to get off this (darn) slide we were on."

Don't expect the frustrated Pistons to turn things around over their next two games that have them taking on the Celtics and Cavaliers in back-to-back games. The Celtics have won five of their last six games against the Pistons, the only loss coming at the end of last season when they were resting their starters for the playoffs.

The Celtics have covered their last seven straight games.  The struggling Pistons have failed to cover the spread in their last four games against teams with a winning record and when they face an opponent who has scored 100 or more points in the previous game. Lay the points here with the Celtics.

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John Ryan Sports

Valparaiso Crusaders @ Butler Bulldogs
Pick: Valparaiso Crusaders +17.5

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Valparaiso as they travel to face Butler slated to start at 7:00 EST.  AiS shows a 72% probability that VALPO will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 41-19 ATS for 68% since 2003. Play against any team that is a good 3PT shooting team hitting >=36.5% facing an average 3PT defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15+ games and after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less. Butler is 18-1 and they have done it with a methodical prodding offense and stifling defense. However, VALPO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game since 1997. Because of the slow tempo this game will take on rebounds will be below average for VALPO. AiS shows an 88% probability that Valpo will have between 34 and 39 rebounds and in past games where this has occurred Valpo is a solid 19-7 ATS since 1997.


Lakers at Minnesota

Lakers by 7 points based on Ai Simulator estimate.

I have been running very hot of late with 10 and 15* graded plays and this one will be a 5* graded Monster play on the Lakers. Minnesota has played exceptional team basketball in January. They have won 5 of the last 6 and three of them have been on the road against Phoenix, the LA Clippers, and Milwaukee. Entering Wednesday night they will be a pick-em hosting Detroit, a team that is 5 games over 500. I point this out only to show that the public is beginning to back Minnesota in a big way given that the winning ways have been evident for more than a month. They are 11-2 in January and that is amazing.

Enter the best team in the NBA, based on my research and opinion, in the Lakers on Thursday night. The Lakers normally may be prone to taking Minnesota lightly, but given how well Minnesota has played in January they will be prepared and focused to win this game. Reality is that Minnesota is no where close to being just a 5 point dog to these powerful Lakers. The Lakers bench might be able to defeat the Minnesota starters on any given night. The Lakers, when prepared, do not turn the ball over, giving the opposition easy transition opportunities. AiS shows an 856% probability that the Lakers will have 12 or fewer turnovers. Note that Minnesota is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota has run and up tempo style of offense during the winning month, but the Lakers thrive against these one dimensional teams. The Lakers are the only NBA team that can flip a switch and the lock down defense is applied and suffocates an offense that may have been clicking on all cylinders just minutes ago. I will have more detail about this game later this week so be sure to get my podcast for Friday that will further examine this strong opportunity. Lakers are 25-12 ATS against teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the past 2 seasons.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Brown at Cornell
Brown (6-10 SU) comes in with an 0-4 ATS record against teams with a winning record, while Cornell (12-6 SU) is 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.  The Big Red are the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has Cornell favored by 17.  Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-14). 

Game 873-874: Princeton at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 48.498; Dartmouth 43.294
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 5
Vegas Line: Princeton by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-1 1/2)

Game 875-876: Valparaiso at Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 51.428; Butler 71.940
Dunkel Line: Butler by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-17 1/2)

Game 877-878: Yale at Columbia
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 48.424; Columbia 49.840
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+2)

Game 879-880: Brown at Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 45.878; Cornell 62.852
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 17
Vegas Line: Cornell by 14
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-14)

Game 881-882: Pennsylvania at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 47.892; Harvard 52.492
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 7
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+7)

Game 883-884: Marist at Fairfield
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 48.737; Fairfield 55.659
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 7
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-6 1/2)

Game 885-886: Loyola-MD at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 50.465; Rider 53.968
Dunkel Line: Rider by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+6 1/2)

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Los Angeles Clippers

Off last night's loss, the Cavs are extremely heavy favorites here. After all, they're undefeated at home and the Clippers practically never win on the road. However, the situation favors the visiting Clippers, who had last night off.

In addition to last night's huge showdown at Orlandom the Cavs have another really big game vs. Detroit on deck. In other words, it should be easy for them to overlook the lowly Clippers. This is more than just a "typical back to back situation" for the Cavs too, as they're also playing their third game in the past four nights.

Yes, the Clippers looked bad in their last game and have now lost three straight. They're slowly starting to get healthier though, having gotten both Camby and Davis back last game. With another game under, those two "stars" should be stronger and the rest of the team will have had a chance to adjust to their return.

As for the Cavs, they're still without West and Ilgauskus remains questionable. Ilgauskus certainly makes the Cavs a better team over the long run. However even if he did return tonight, that wouldn't necessarily make them better for tonight's game. Often, as the Clippers found out when Davis and Camby returned, teams don't perform as well as expected, in the very first game when a star (or stars) returns to the lineup.

It's true that the Clippers have just one win in the last seven games in this series. A closer look shows none of the six losses were by more than 17 points though and that five of them were by 14 points or less. Look for the Clippers to be the "fresher" team and for them to give their hosts a tougher game than most are expecting. Consider LA

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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Miami Heat +3

The Heat are rolling, having won 3 in a row and 6 of 8.  They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and I'll take the points with Dwayne Wade and company tonight.  Indiana really struggles on the defensive end and the Heat have proven that they can score against the Pacers.  Miami won 109-100 in this season's prior matchup.  The underdog has had the edge in this series, going 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings and the Road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Friday games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.  The Heat are the better team and I'll take them catching a three-pointer here.

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Dwayne Bryant

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons UNDER 181

We have much info supporting this play. Let's start with series history. The Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings, including the last 5 in Detroit. The final totals in those 5 games in Detroit were 177, 174, 169, 170, and 164. Boston has played 2 high scoring games in their last 2 outings (224 and 219 total points scored), but both games were at home. The UNDER is 11-1 in Boston's last 12 road games. Boston's last 2 games went over the total, so it should be noted that the UNDER is 5-1 this season when Boston is coming off exactly 2 overs. The UNDER is also 9-2 in Detroit's last 11 home games against Eastern Conference foes.

The UNDER is:

7-1 in the Celtics' last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
10-2 in the Celtics' last 12 vs. a team with a winning SU record
8-2 in the Celtics' last 10 games playing on 1 day of rest
35-17 in the Celtics' last 52 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
7-0 in the Pistons' last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600
10-2 in the Pistons' last 12 vs. a team with a winning SU record
6-2-1 in the Pistons' last 9 games as a home underdog
11-4 in the Pistons' last 15 games following a SU win
24-9 in the Pistons' last 33 games as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points
21-8 in the Pistons' last 29 when their opponent scored 100 points or more in their previous game

I expect between 170 and 175 points to be scored in this game, so I will play UNDER 181.

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Steve O'Brian

Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Boston Celtics -6

Going to offer up a prime time key match up in the NBA tonight. Marquee game featuring the Celtics visiting the Palace in Auburn Hills to meet the Pistons. At first glance I loved Boston in this spot considering the way they have turned around that slump they were in. You know what guys, after checking into this game further I have come to the conclusion I was wrong, the fact is I should not just love them here but be downright crazy about them. The Celtics have covered the number 6 of their past 7 trips there, couple that with the fact the underachieving Pistons are a lousy 7-15 against the number at home. Pistons still getting too much unearned respect from the numbers guys and I am making them pay tonight and suggest you do likewise. Take Boston gentlemen and lay the six. Also I encourage all of you to take a hard look at my Super Bowl offer, winning side & total for one fair price. You won't find a better value guys! Good luck tonight and enjoy your weekend! 

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Jack Jones

Take Indiana Pacers -3 over Miami Heat

I'll take the Pacers, who are 4-0 straight up against the Heat in the last 4 meetings between these two team in Indiana. The Pacers are on a 4-0 ATS run as a favorite and they've won 5-0 straight against the number on their home court. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 against the spread against Eastern Conference opponents, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall. I'm jumping on them, hopefully before they start to cool off. The Heat, on the other hand, are just 3-7-2 after a win of 10+ points, and they are just 13-31-3 ATS after a win in their past 47 contests. Give the points for the home team tonight.


Take Marist +6.5 over Fairfield

Marist has 4 straight ATS wins at Fairfield and they've managed to cover the spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings overall. Neither team has played all that well this season, but the Stags have been particularly bad at home, not at winning (6-2 this year), but at covering the spread (1-5 ATS at home). Marist has a pretty significant advantage at shooting the three-point ball, and that could be the difference between a win and a loss for them tonight. Either way, these are two teams that are evenly matched and there is no way that Fairfield's home court advantage is 6-7 points, it's more like 3, if that.

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Chip Chirimbes 

Chicago Bulls vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +1.5

The Chicago Bulls have had their problems winning in Sacramento as they have gone over ten years against the Kings without a win in California. the Bulls have now won only six of their last 19 games. The Kings have now lost 20 straight game against East opponents but will bust that streak today against a weak Bulls squad that is only 6-17 on the road and even worse when in Sacramento. Take KINGS! 

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maddux sports

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Re: Friday Service Plays

anyone have ats lock club picks haven't seen them on here since sat and they have a lock of the year pick this sat Blade did they make you stop posting there picks?

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Andre Gomes

CHI vs SAC

Everybody expects a huge letdown for the Bulls, as the line opened as -2 and right now we can shop the line as pk. However, "everybody" is forgetting how bad the spot are for the Kings and also how bad this team is.

Well, the Kings are 0-7 L7 games and they completed a road trip by being spanked in 3 consecutive games against the Raptors, Cavs and the Celtics. I understand that especially in the last 2 games the Kings simply didn't have any chance to win, but do you noticed that they played 4 games in 5 nights in that road trip!? This is not over as the last game was in Boston and they had only one day to rest, well they had to travel the entire country and tonight they will host the Bulls. The home court advantage simply doesn't exist for the Kings in this game, nevertheless they are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games, so they wouldn't have home court advantage in any of the cases. In this season there were 2 similar spots for the Kings and in both of them the Kings lost at home: 101-107 vs Toronto and 115-119 vs Miami.

The sad news for this team is that they quit easily on the games, remember that they are dead last in terms of points differential: -9.04! Even the Clippers have a more respectable stat! This isn't surprisingly at all for me. This team is looking to make a trade (Brad Miller) for such a long time and recently John Salmons is also included in rumors. Both players already said that the prospect of being moved has certainly been on their minds.

"I heard a lot today about some (trade) stuff, so it's being discussed," he said. "It's at the point where it's got to be discussed. We're (as a team) at a point where they're going to make decisions on where they're going to go with the team and what they're going to do, and everybody has got to be discussed. That's just the nature of the beast." There are so many distractions on this team!

Meanwhile, the Bulls bounced back nicely against a lowly team like the Clippers. If you remember I backed the Bulls in that game by saying that the Bulls made a good effort in the previous game in Minnesota and they worked hard in the practise to finish better the games. Well, they didn't disappoint us and spanked the Clippers by 20 points!

That win gave some confidence to the team: HC Vinny Del Negro said: "Winning builds confidence, that's the bottom line?.I like our mind-set right now." Or also Derrick Rose: "It feels good. We haven't had a blowout for a while. When we're moving the ball like that, it's hard to beat us."
The Bulls don't win in Sacramento since the Michael Jordan era and I don't expect them to overlook the Kings tonight. Basically we are betting on the better team, on the most confident and on the best spot, take the Bulls in here

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Re: Friday Service Plays

hermans1 wrote:


anyone have ats lock club picks haven't seen them on here since sat and they have a lock of the year pick this sat Blade did they make you stop posting there picks?

The guy that posts them hasn't been around lately

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