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Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

If you have enough outs (local and offshore) AND can get on the moves before they happen there is a lot of money that can be made. You always hear people talk about middling, but most of the time they really do not know what the hell they are talking about. When it comes right down to it, sports gambling is math. Almost everything has some type of value. There is a reason all books charge the same for buying 1/2 points. Everything has some type of percentage behind it and like the casino when buying insurance in BJ, the books/casino will ALWAYS make you pay more than the real assigned value.

If you can find a solid local who is old school, always keep them as an out. The advantages with them not moving lines is well worth it. Say a game is hit from 7 to 5 and your local still has the 7, you can middle it all day. One thing a lot of middlers do is lean with the move to cover the juice. So you would bet 1000 at +7 and 900 at -5. So if the middle does not hit and assuming the move is sharp, it will help offset some of the juice on the losers. This assumes the move is based off sharp action and there is no exact science behind it, but some people I respect follow this plan.

(the information below is data collected over the years from fellow middles and middlers who shared data on forums in the past)

Need at least a point and half in both college and NBA at -110.

This shows the number and % of time games fall within X # of points with the side/total and the cumulative percentage.

For example in the NBA 3.84% the result was one point off from the spread either way and 9.73% of the time it fell within one or less.

NBA Sides
0 60 2.28% 2.28%
0.5 95 3.61% 5.89%
1 101 3.84% 9.73%
1.5 95 3.61% 13.35%
2 110 4.18% 17.53%
2.5 86 3.27% 20.80%
3 95 3.61% 24.41%
3.5 85 3.23% 27.64%
4 95 3.61% 31.25%

NBA Totals
0 25 0.95% 0.95%
0.5 63 2.40% 3.35%
1 72 2.74% 6.08%
1.5 46 1.75% 7.83%
2 57 2.17% 10.00%
2.5 51 1.94% 11.94%
3 56 2.13% 14.07%
3.5 72 2.74% 16.81%
4 73 2.78% 19.58%

CBB Sides
0 117 2.04% 2.04%
0.5 210 3.67% 5.71%
1 223 3.89% 9.60%
1.5 206 3.60% 13.20%
2 231 4.03% 17.23%
2.5 215 3.75% 20.99%
3 224 3.91% 24.90%
3.5 226 3.95% 28.85%
4 210 3.67% 32.51%

CBB Totals
0 71 1.24% 1.24%
0.5 115 2.01% 3.25%
1 150 2.62% 5.87%
1.5 107 1.87% 7.74%
2 143 2.50% 10.23%
2.5 113 1.97% 12.21%
3 144 2.51% 14.72%
3.5 113 1.97% 16.69%
4 156 2.72% 19.42%

The data shows you will win 51.9% of the time if you get a half point from the pointspread. This equates to 8 cents on the moneyline. Use the 8 cents for a half point to determine the cut off for making money.

If you have a 1.5 point middle then you are gaining a value of 24 cents and it is a +ev play at -110 both sides (20 cent difference). You need a 1.5 point middle at -110 to cross the threshold for a +ev play. There are lines that aren't -110 so I think it is easiers to use the 8 cent moneyline value to determine a +ev play. For example, a 2 point middle at -120 one side and -110 other side has a 30 cent difference, but the value is worth about 32 cents (8 x 4) so this just barely crosses the value for a +ev play.

Remember, this is based off of -110, so you can gamble even more if you have -105 accounts available. I used to have a ton, but -105 shops are not big fans of people beating them by a few points per game.

If you had to ask me the easiest way to get middles if you only want to do it part-part-part time is be on top of key injuries. There is always going to be someone that breaks the news first on a guy like Tony Romo not playing. For example, I had an alert on Romo missing the four weeks and went in to grabs tons of +12 on the flip side. Before hitting submit, I called on my speakphone a friend in Vegas that is part of a middling team that terrorizes the books in town to let him know. The few minutes it took to call him before I hit submit cost me the bet (ugh). So think of the total effort it took to do this:

1) Breaking news on Tony Romo being out (obvious key player)
2) Check the line to see it has not moved and see it sitting at the +12 still
3) Bet AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE on the +12
4) Game is pulled once it becames news across the board
5) Game is now put back up at Dallas -7 (some places at 6.5)
6) Take the Cowboys -6.5

So you now have a HUGE MIDDLE that goes thru 7 and 10. Think of it as a free one team teaser! If you tried to buy that many points, it would cost you between -220 and -240. So think of that in this way, how rich would you be if you were able to bet -240 favorites at -110? Are all middles this extreme or easy, of course not, but this is an actual example that was readily available in the last day or so. Man, I can't wait for basketball season!

Johnny Detroit
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

I was able to make a very nice living playing middles/scalps in every sport possible when we still had Neteller as a funding option but these days it's just to difficult to fund a book quickly when you see something.

RIP Neteller  :'(

Blade
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

Valuable post.

JD is a middling fool. I've seen him in action, it's quite a sight to behold.

Michael Cash
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

Michael Cash wrote:


Valuable post.

JD is a middling fool. I've seen him in action, it's quite a sight to behold.

You never saw me back in the good old days.  ;D

Blade
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

The best times were when SIA, Pinnacle and (cough-cough) Aces Gold. Shit, Blue Marlin, Camelot, Wagerstreet, etc. There were so many middles and scalps you would max out your accounts by 3pm.

Johnny Detroit
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

Ah, the good old days. Kinda depressing when you look back on how shit used to be around here.

I remember when I met Reggie from Blue Marlin and I also remember when he skipped town with everyone loot 3 months later. ;D

Michael Cash
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

he had me on credit. was killing him. all the time. he got the last laugh though. my last big score he paid me in SECURE BUXX. remember those? lol.

Johnny Detroit
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

I was really shocked when he went under. He must of been stuck bad. He was talking about his Tica wife, they had a kid he was about to start in the international school there. He was also in the middle of moving to a way larger office.  Then a couple months later, see ya.

It's really crazy for me to look back on some of that shit. It seems like it all just happened yesterday but that was a long as time ago.

Sometimes you forget how long online gambling has been going

Michael Cash
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Re: Ever wonder how to middle basketball?

Reggie's problem was the same as other shops that went under. He thought he could battle the sharp bettors and not be Pinnacle/Greek/Cris. I was anything but a professional at that time, but was chopping him up in middles and scalps at $500-$1000 a pop. God knows what a real betting syndicate must have been doing.

Johnny Detroit
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