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David Chan NFL prop shop: Week 11
David Chan NFL prop shop: Week 11
NFL prop shop: Week 11
By DAVID CHAN
So I didn’t deliver the 4-0 sweep that I had promised, but hopefully you weren’t too disappointed with a 3-0-1 Week 10.
I’m not going to make any more promises, but I will say that I’ve got a good feeling about this week’s plays.
Baltimore vs. NY Giants
Most rushing yards: McGahee vs. Jacobs
Play on Jacobs
With both teams spreading out their carries among three running backs, it may seem like there’s little to choose from between Willis McGahee and Brandon Jacobs.
I don’t see it that way.
McGahee is coming off his best game of the season, running for 112 yards and two touchdowns in Houston last Sunday. But don’t get too excited. Two weeks ago, he didn’t get a single carry against the Browns. He’s been hit or miss this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the bruising Le’Ron McClain get the bulk of the carries this week.
Unlike McGahee, Brandon Jacobs has been a steady producer. He has improved his rush yards per carry from 5.1 last year to 5.3 this season. He’s also breaking the century mark at a near 50/50 clip. He loses some of his carries to Derrick Ward, but not enough to diminish his value this Sunday. The Giants will need him to wear down this tough Ravens defense.
Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
Most passing yards: Collins vs. Garrard
Play on Garrard
Kerry Collins stepped up and proved he is capable of winning a game all on his own last week, but it should be back to basics for the undefeated Titans this Sunday.
That’s because they’re up against a Jaguars defense that has really struggled against the run. Teams actually haven’t run on them all that much and that’s the only reason they’ve allowed a respectable 113 rushing yards per game. The fact that they’re allowing 4.4 yards per rush tells the real story.
The Jags’ ground game hasn’t been nearly as dominant as it’s been in years’ past and because of that, we’re starting to see David Garrard throw the ball more and more. He’s thrown for at least 200 yards in six consecutive games.
Jacksonville is averaging 6.4 yards per passing play compared to Tennessee’s 5.9. It’s one of the few advantages the Jags have in this matchup and we’ll put it to work for us.
Denver at Atlanta
Most pass receptions: Marshall vs. White
Play on White
With Champ Bailey sidelined, the Broncos don’t have a true shutdown corner to lock on Roddy White. He has become Matt Ryan’s favorite target and based on the way Ryan has performed at home, I’m expecting another big day from the duo.
White has caught at least five passes in each of the last seven games after being held to only six in the first two games combined.
Brandon Marshall’s production has dropped off considerably since that 18-catch performance in Week 2. Over the last three weeks, he’s caught just 14 passes. With Tony Scheffler back in the fold, Jay Cutler isn’t looking to Marshall nearly as often.
Add in the fact that the Falcons have been tremendous against the pass and we have a strong play on White.
Arizona vs. Seattle
Most sacks: Play on Seattle
I’ll go out on a limb and call for the Seahawks to record more sacks than the Cardinals in Seattle on Sunday.
Watch for the Seahawks to give Matt Hasselbeck some extra protection in his first game back from injury. The last thing they want is their meal ticket taking another beating and heading back to the shelf. Seattle actually hasn’t done a bad job of protecting its QBs, ranking right around the middle of the pack in sacks allowed.
The Cardinals haven’t been putting much pressure on opposing QBs, recording only three sacks in their last three games.