SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Tennessee / Chicago
Play: 4* Chicago +3
Chicago is scoring 27.9 points per game overall this year and 30.7 points per game at home this season. Chicago is 3-1 SU at home this year and 3-1 SU overall vs Tennessee since 1992. Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 10. Bears are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Bears are 24-11-2 ATS in their last 37 games in November.
Baltimore / Houston
Play: 4* Houston PK
Houston is 3-1 SU at home where they are scoring 29.7 points per game this season. Ravens are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 10. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Texans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Houston is 7-2 ATS at home when the line is pick to 2 1/2. Baltimore is 11-21 ATS after 3 consecutive Overs. We'll play Houston for 4 units today!
Florida / Anaheim
Play: 4* Florida +205
Ducks are 2-6 in their last 8 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Ducks are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Florida is 6-4 before playing the NY Rangers. Florida is 6-3 last 9 against Anaheim. Anaheim is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Florida. Anaheim allows the most power plays at 5.6 per game. We'll play Florida for 4 units tonight!
Atlanta / Carolina
Play: 3* Atlanta +170
Hurricanes are 2-6 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Hurricanes are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Hurricanes are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Thrashers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Carolina. Road team is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings. We'll play Atlanta for 3 units today!
#8 Mark Martin vs #9 Kasey Kahne
Play: 5* #8 Mark Martin -140
Looking at my pick for the 4th spot we turn to Mark Martin. Martin has 1 win, 9 Top 5 finishes and 15 Top 10 finishes in his 23 starts in Phoenix. Martin has an average finish of 9.2 in Phoenix which is the 3rd best among all active drivers. Kasey Kahne has an average finish of only 21.1 here in Phoenix. Kahne has only 1 top 5 finish and 3 top 10 finishes in his 8 races in Phoenix. Earlier this year in Phoenix, Mark Martin finished 5th while Kasey Kahne was way back in 36th position in the 43 car field. We'll play Mark Martin to finish ahead of Kasey Kahne for 5 units today!
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
TENNESSEE TITANS vs CHICAGO BEARS
Play: CHICAGO BEARS +3
Undefeated Titans versus a percieved bottom dweller with the unpopular Grossman at QB but only a 3 line? Something doesn't smell right in the kitchen. Lets take a chance on the dog to take a shot at knocking out that perfect Tennessee record.
ST LOUIS vs NY JETS
Play: NY JETS -9
We were a little late on this one and got penalized with a 2 point rise in the line. Now let us warn you that the stats look good for a Jets blow-out but they are in a sandwhich type game here as they have to play on Thursday. We do have to give props to the Rams for playing with much heart but it only goes so far. Throw in we aren't big fans of Dome teams on the road. Arizona smoked STL and the Jets smoked Arizona. This one could get ugly.
NY GIANTS vs PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Play: NY GIANTS +3
Until anyone can show us differently, we get one of the best road teams in the biz and getting points as frosting on the cake. There's never any shame in taking the dog. Philly is a good team, but you have to figure on the value of what you are investing on and we are getting a high quality return with the Giants.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
NEW YORK JETS -vs-St. Louis Rams UNDER 44,
This total is much too high in our opinion. The Jets may seem as if they are a high octane offense if one simply looks at their PPG numbers. They are 8th in the NFL on scoring at 26 PPG yet just 17th on total offense averaging 327 YPG. Something doesn't add up there. The fact is, the Jets have been somewhat "lucky" in a few games and racked up what seemed to be big numbers. In their game vs. Arizona where New York put up 56 points, many were given to them as the Cards had a ridiculous 7 turnovers. Last week they put up 26 points vs. the Bills yet that total was extremely skewed. The Jets actually had 13 points in that game with only one first down due to Buffalo's early turnovers. They had just 14 points going into the 4th quarter vs. San Diego but the Chargers were so far ahead they backed off and NY put up 15 in the final quarter. Their offense simply isn't all that explosive.
Also, the Jets are making a concerted effort to run the ball more. Head coach Eric Mangini basically said as much. QB Brett Favre has been interception prone throwing seven in the three games leading up to Buffalo last week and Mangini wants to take some of the burden off his shoulders. He did last week when Favre threw it just 28 times. They will run much more often this week against a Rams team that allows 155 YPG on the ground. Look for the Jets to take advantage of that, keep the clock running and shorten the game.
On the other sideline, don't expect the Rams to put up much on offense vs. an improving and solid New York defense. St. Louis is 30th in overall offense and they have topped 19 points just once this season. The Jet defense has allowed 17 points or less in three of their last four games. The Rams will also try and establish the run (even with Steven Jackson possibly out) to take pressure of QB Marc Bulger. The Jets have a top notch run defense, however St. Louis head man Jim Haslett knows that can't come in and simply wing the ball and expect to win as Bulger is completing just 57% of his passes on the year.
The St. Louis defensive stats are scary bad. However, much of the damage was done early in the season when this team was out right poor. They have drastically improved overall and that includes the defense. After allowing 147 points in their first 5 games (at least 31 in each), they have now allowed 88 in their last four. That is also deceiving as three of those four games they were solid defensively. The only one that wasn't was last week vs. Arizona where they gave up 34 points, however one of those was a defensive TD for the Cardinals. Before that they allowed 17 @ Washington, 14 vs. Dallas and 23 @ New England. They are definitely playing much harder under their new coach with a record of 2-2 since Haslett took over for Linehan.
We expect the Jets to run, run and run here. Look for a fairly close but low scoring game. We take the under.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -vs-Kansas City Chiefs OVER 47
Entering week 10 of the NFL season, San Diego is definitely not the team they thought they would be coming into the season. They are 3-5 and have one of the poorer defenses in the league, which has been their downfall. They have the 25th ranked total defense and the WORST pass defense in the league; so it’s no surprise they allow 25 points per game! Despite their bad defense, they boast one of the best offenses in the NFL, scoring 28 points per game! Coming off their bye week, against another bad defensive team in Kansas City, expect the Chargers high powered offense to put up a lot of points; and their defense to also surrender a good amount of points on Sunday.
Kansas City has done a good job of developing SOMETHING out of nothing with third string quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Over the last two games vs. the Jets and Buccaneers, Thigpen is a combined 39/61 for 444 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions; and in those two games they put up 24 and 27 points against two of the better defenses in the NFL. Thigpen has picked a good time to break out as now they face the worst pass-defense in the NFL. We expect another good showing from Thigpen and for the Chiefs to put up some good numbers on offense.
There is a reason the Chiefs are 1-7, and I’m going to go out on a limb and say their 31st ranked total defense and their 32nd rank rush defense are the main reasons they haven’t been very successful this year. Believe me, Ladainian Tomlinson is drooling watching film of this defense trying to stop the run. LT hasn’t really had a breakout game so far this year; but we see no better time, coming off a bye week against the Chiefs, for LT to breakout.
As I stated before, the Chiefs have done a good job of progressing their young talent on offense, and they’ve proved it by going OVER in 5 of their last 6 games. The Chargers have also gone OVER in 8 of their last 10 games coming off a loss. Two bad defenses is a recipe for disaster and we expect a high-scoring game that is sure to surpass 47.5 points.
New York Giants (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles have yet to “live up to their potential” in my opinion. They looked really good early in the season vs. Dallas, however they have beaten the lower tier teams and struggled with the better ones. They have played four upper tier teams this season and lost to three of them. Their only big win was a 15-6 triumph over Pittsburgh while losing to Dallas, Washington and Chicago. They face the best team in the NFC and maybe all of football on Sunday Night. Philly is favored here and we will gladly take the much better team getting points.
The Super Bowl Champs have been an underdog just once this year, two weeks ago at Pittsburgh. They took care of business there and beat up on a very good Steeler team 21-14. That gives the Giants a near perfect 11-2 spread record as an underdog going back to the 2006 season. Even more impressive, they have won 8 of those 13 games out right. Not only that, this team is THE BEST road team in the NFL by far. The G-Men are a very impressive 13-3 SU their last 16 road games. Even better, they are 14-2 ATS in those games. You simply cannot fade this team on the road, especially when they are getting points.
The Eagle offense lives through the air as their running game has been somewhat pedestrian this year averaging just 97 YPG. However, against top 10 defenses this year, Philly has not even come close to those numbers. The Birds have faced three defenses currently ranked in the top 10 and here are their rushing numbers vs. those teams; 78 yards vs. Dallas, 65 yard vs. Pitt and 58 yards vs. Washington. The Giants currently are ranked 3rd in the NFL so expect similar ground numbers from the Eagles. That’s bad news for QB Donovan McNabb and company. That’s because the Giants have the second best pass defense in the NFL allowing just 175 YPG. New York also puts all kinds of pressure on opposing QB’s ranking second on the NFL in sacks just behind Pittsburgh. McNabb will be running for his life all night long.
On the flip side, the Giants have the second best rushing attack in the league averaging 162 YPG. Their battering style wears down opponents at the game progresses. While the Eagles have a very good rush defense, they won’t be able to key completely on the ground game as the Giants have one Eli Manning who is among the best in the NFL. The New York offense is very tough to contain because it is so diverse. The Giants are the only team in the NFL in the top 5 in BOTH total offense and defense and it shows on the field.
New York won both meetings last year and know a win here puts them comfortably in front in the very difficult NFC East. We side with the better running game and better defense getting points here. Take the Giants.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2008 NFL SIDE PLAY OF THE YEAR
5-Star NEW ENGLAND -3' over Buffalo
After starting 4-0 and looking like they were going to run away with the tough AFC East, the Bills have stumbled recently. Now they are tied at 5-3 with the Patriots and Jets for the division lead. The Patriots are just the team to drive in the stake.New England is off a road loss at Indianapolis last week in which they suffered a 2-0 turnover margin. This is the Patriots' best spot. They are 8-0 ATS after a straight up loss on the road, covering by an average of 15.8 ppg. They have had one active date this season - their 41-7 demolition of the Broncos on Monday Night football. In addition, the Pats are 7-0 ATS (+11.0 ppg) when they are off a loss in which they suffered a turnover margin of at least +2, as long as they are not laying double-digits.Buffalo has lost two straight to divisional opponents and they looked bad doing so. Last week they had their chance to show what they are made of at home vs the Jets. They revealed that they are a mentally fragile team, losing 26-17 laying 5 points. Buffalo was 1-of-3 red zone attempts and Edwards was sacked five times.The Bills are a gutless 0-6 ATS on the road when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a divisional opponent, falling short of the linesmakers' expectations by an average of 13.6 ppg. Also, the Bills are 0-6 ATS the week after they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS (-11.9 ppg) when they are on a two+ game SU and ATS losing streak, as long as they are not getting more than a TD. In addition, the Bills are 0-5 ATS (-12.5 ppg) as a road dog when they failed on at least two red zone attempts as a home favorite last week. Perhaps the most compelling stat of all is that Buffalo is 0-5 ATS as a dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 as a favorite. The young Bills simply adopt a defeatist attitude in this situation, losing every single one of the six games by double-digits, and failing to cover by an average of 13.3 ppg.Buffalo simply does not have the character and mental toughness to compete with the Patriots here. These two teams are heading in opposite directions. Cassell is getting better and more confident with each start and the Bills are falling apart. This is a key divisional matchup. The Patriots have played many important games just like this one. They know what is at stake. They are mentally tough. They are at home. They will man-up. Their defense will crush the Bills' struggling offense.Over the past two seasons, the Pats have been a home favorite by less than a TD only twice. They won those two games 38-14 and 41-7 respectively. Lay the 3'.
MTi's FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 27 Buffalo 0
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
TENNESSEE TITANS / CHICAGO BEARS
Take TENNESSEE TITANS
The NFL's only unbeaten team, the Tennessee Titans, head to the Windy City on Sunday to take on the Chicago Bears, leaders of the NFC North. Both teams own strong defensive lines with the Titans allowing 92 yards rushing a game, the Bears just 82. The difference defensively is that Tennessee possesses much better linebacker and secondary units, which is why they allow a league-best 12.9 points per game. Over the last 12 games, only one opponent has scored more than 17 points on the Titans. Now that stop unit catches a big break, taking on a Bear's squad that will start erratic Rex Grossman rather than the injured Kyle Orton. Orton, who suffered a severe ankle injury, had guided Chicago to wins in 12 of his 14 starts at Soldier Field. Add in the fact the visitors are a money-making 16-6 ATS vs the NFC while the hosts are 1-7 both SU and ATS as a non-conference underdog and you've got a play on the streaking Titans.
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