NFL Week 9 Trends

NFL Week 9 Trends

HOUSTON (3 - 4) at MINNESOTA (3 - 4) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 4) at CINCINNATI (0 - 8) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 6) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (4 - 3) at CLEVELAND (3 - 4) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 3) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 3) at ST LOUIS (2 - 5) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0 - 7) at CHICAGO (4 - 3) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 3) at TENNESSEE (7 - 0) - 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
TENNESSEE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (3 - 4) at DENVER (4 - 3) - 11/2/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
MIAMI is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 3) at OAKLAND (2 - 5) - 11/2/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 26-50 ATS (-29.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (5 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 1) - 11/2/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 3) at SEATTLE (2 - 5) - 11/2/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 122-86 ATS (+27.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 46-71 ATS (-32.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 4) - 11/2/2008, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-44 ATS (+21.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Monday, November 3

PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) at WASHINGTON (6 - 2) - 11/3/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Re: NFL Week 9 Trends

Houston at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Houston: 1-10 ATS Away off home game
Minnesota: 13-4 Over off ATS loss

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 9-0 Over 2nd half of season
Cincinnati: 0-6 ATS vs. conference

Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 84-52 Under as favorite
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS after allowing 25+ points BB games

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 2-9 ATS in road games
Cleveland: 8-1 ATS as favorite

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 6-0 Under off SU win
Buffalo: 22-9 ATS at home in November

Arizona at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 16-4 Over off ATS win
St. Louis: 4-12 ATS off SU loss

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 9-20 ATS vs. conference
Chicago: 15-3 Over as home favorite

Green Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 8-0 ATS off non-conference game
Tennessee: 30-15 Over vs. NFC

Miami at Denver, 4:05 ET
Miami: 29-11 ATS vs. AFC West
Denver: 0-12 ATS if total is between 42.5 and 49

Atlanta at Oakland, 4:15 ET
Atlanta: 24-6 ATS Away after allowing 400+ total yards
Oakland: 1-8 ATS in non-conference games

Dallas at NY Giants, 4:15 ET
Dallas: 5-15 ATS Away after allowing 9 points or less
NY Giants: 14-5 ATS vs. conference

Philadelphia at Seattle, 4:15 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS Away after 1st month of season
Seattle: 1-11 ATS off division win by 21+ points

New England at Indianapolis, 8:15 ET NBC
New England: 10-3 ATS at Indianapolis
Indianapolis: 8-0 ATS off BB ATS losses

Monday, November 3rd

Pittsburgh at Washington, 8:30 ET ESPN
Pittsburgh: 30-9 Under Away off SU loss
Washington: 2-6 ATS in non-conference games

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Re: NFL Week 9 Trends

1:00 PM ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home


1:00 PM BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore


1:00 PM DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games


1:00 PM GREEN BAY vs. TENNESSEE
Green Bay is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
Green Bay is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


1:00 PM HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Minnesota is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games


1:00 PM JACKSONVILLE vs. CINCINNATI
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games


1:00 PM NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games at home


1:00 PM TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay


2, 4:05 PM MIAMI vs. DENVER
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home


4:15 PM ATLANTA vs. OAKLAND
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games


4:15 PM DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home


4:15 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. SEATTLE
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia


8:15 PM NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
New England is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home

Monday, November 3

8:30 PM PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

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Re: NFL Week 9 Trends

Top NFL Week 9 Head-to-head Series Trends

Like any angles or systems that are used to handicap pro football games, the history of two teams in their recent head-to-head matchups should be analyzed fully to uncover value spots. For some of these matchups, past games may mean absolutely nothing to the upcoming game, while for others they may be the decisive factor in determining whether or not to bet the contest.

The intensity of rivalries in pro football doesn’t really come close to that of the college level, where the likes Ohio State-Michigan, or Auburn-Alabama, can make or break those teams’ entire seasons, even if the games mean little in the standings. Does this mean the recent history between the teams in the NFL can be safely ignored? I would obviously say not, since in many cases, coaches will prepare their teams for a specific opponent in consistent fashion. This naturally leads to distinctive patterns forming. It also implies that most NFL head-to-head series trends that form are more due to strategy and less to motivation.

Some of the head-to-head trends can be explained rather easily, while other patterns seem to be just random luck. For instance, you’ll see later why it’s pretty easy to come up with a reason why the underdog in the Indianapolis-New England fares well, while at the same time, searching for a reason as to why Denver hasn’t matched up well with Miami is difficult. In any case, for the seven games below, I’ll do my best to offer up a reason for the success of the trend revealed, plus I’ll provide some insight as to whether or not it might be an angle to follow this Sunday.

If these types of trends interest you, StatFox offers up the Top 5 college & pro football head-to-head trends in the Platinum Sheet each and every week. The P.S. is available on a store shelf near you or in the STORE on StatFox.com.

NY JETS at BUFFALO
* The UNDERDOG is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) in NY JETS-BUFFALO series since '93

Analysis: Meeting two times per season, divisional rivalries are a perfect chance for underdogs to thrive, since they are well familiar with their favored opponents’ tendencies. In the case of the Jets and Bills, the underdog has had success much due to the fact that these teams haven’t been among the higher scoring clubs in the last decade. As such, the favorite in these games has not been able to put the other away. With the Bills being favored here and the Jets having the higher-powered offense, this is a trend that figures to continue in 2008.

NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS
* NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 SU & 17-8 ATS vs. INDIANAPOLIS since 1993.
AND
* The UNDERDOG is 9-19 SU but 18-9 ATS in NEW ENGLAND-INDIANAPOLIS series since '92.

Analysis: With the success that the New England and Indianapolis franchises’ have enjoyed over the last decade, it’s not a surprise to see that the underdog has thrived in the head-to-head series. That is often how it goes when the teams’ play in the biggest games of the year. Big games rarely disappoint in the NFL. Plus, both teams have been fluid offenses that keep fighting back. It is, however, a surprising, albeit well known, fact that HC Bill Belichick has gotten the best of Colts’ QB Peyton Manning over the years. This year’s meeting will take on a different feel than any in recent memory as both teams are fighting for their playoff lives. This should mean a typically intense dual, but without the usual precise execution. Keep in mind that the last three meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI
* The FAVORITE is 13-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in JACKSONVILLE-CINCINNATI series since '95.
AND
* JACKSONVILLE is 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS vs. CINCINNATI since 1998.

Analysis: The Jacksonville-Cincinnati rivalry is not one that you’ll find at the top of most experts’ lists of most anticipated annual matchups. After all, they haven’t been divisional rivals since ’01, and have only met twice in the last six seasons. However, judging from the trend, it’s easy to see that Cincinnati has had trouble adjusting to the Jaguars’ schemes under, first Tom Coughlin, and now Jack Del Rio. Jacksonville has won nine of the last 10 meetings straight up, and with the way things are going this year, figures to make it 10 out of 11. Unless you’re counting on the Bengals to put together their best effort of the year heading into next week’s bye, look for the Jags and favorite to notch another “W”.

DALLAS at NY+GIANTS
* The HOME TEAM is 20-13 SU & 19-12 ATS in DALLAS-NY GIANTS series since '92.
AND
* The UNDER is 17-11 in the NY GIANTS-DALLAS series since 1994.

Analysis: The Dallas-NY Giants HOME TEAM & UNDER trends are perfect examples of NFL trends normalizing over the course of many years. In any divisional series, you should expect physicality and familiarity to play important roles. In terms of the teams being physical, this leads to UNDER’s. One of both of the offenses might be prolific at times, but the mere value placed on valuing possessions in order to win critical division games typically outweighs that. Additionally, because the teams are so familiar with one another, other factors have to weigh in more heavily. In the case of the Giants & Cowboys, the home field advantage most often is the separation. As far as this week’s game, with Dallas’ QB Tony Romo expected to be out, the defending champions have to be smelling blood in the water. I wouldn’t be counting on this downtrodden Dallas team to react positively here.

PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE
* The ROAD TEAM is 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of PHILADELPHIA-SEATTLE series.

Analysis: Prior to the last half of a season, both Philadelphia and Seattle were well-respected among NFC circles, teams capable of winning here, there, or anywhere. While Philadelphia still commands that respect, the Seahawks do not. In fact, they might be the worst road bet in the NFL nowadays. Fortunately for our trend, the Eagles are the road team in this week’s matchup, and for the sixth time in the L7 meetings, the visitor will be the one playing as the chalk. Protégé Andy Reid’s teams are 24-10 SU & 19-14-1 ATS as road favorites, Mentor Mike Holmgren’s Seattle teams are just 5-11 SU & 7-9 as home dogs. Why would it change now?

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS
* The UNDERDOG is 8-2 ATS in ARIZONA-ST LOUIS series since '03.

Analysis: The order of priority for the Arizona and St. Louis franchises in recent years: Offense first, defense much later. That thought, with nothing else considered, leads to underdog success when the teams get together, since poor defensive teams make lousy favorites. How else can you explain that the dog in the L10 games between these teams has averaged a healthy 23.6 PPG. I’ll tell you one thing, if all of you NFL underdog wagers produced that much for you, you’d be a rich man. In this year’s game, with favored Arizona struggling on defense, playing its second straight road game, and the Rams coming on offensively, St. Louis is probably the only way to go in this game.

MIAMI at DENVER
* MIAMI is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS vs. DENVER since 1998.

Analysis: All seven of the recent matchups making up this trend between Denver and Miami occurred between 1998 & 2005. Both franchises were in transition off of great quarterbacking eras and achieving only moderate success for most of that period. It does little to explain why Miami has had its way with the Broncos. If you have a reason as to why, I’d love to hear it. In any case, for the 2008 matchup, Denver has the better team but can’t cover a spread for its life, regardless of the number. It that continues, chalk another “W” up for Miami, at least on the betting ticket.

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Re: NFL Week 9 Trends

Texans (3-4) @ Vikings (3-4)-  Houston won last three games, all at home, scoring 30.7 pg- they've scored eight TDs on last 16 drives, converting 16 of last 24 on 3rd down. Schaub is 50-59/529 passing in last two games. Texans are 0-3 on road, allowing 33 pg, unsure how much of that was due to hurricane-related distractions- this is their first road game in five weeks. Minnesota is 2-1 at home, allowing 12.7 pg (they led Colts 15-0 in the loss); they've turned ball over eight times in last two games (-6), allowed four special teams TDs in last three.

Jaguars (3-4) @ Bengals (0-7)- Jaguars won nine of last ten series games, winning last four by average score of 24-15; they've won 10 of 12 vs. Bengals when they score 14+ points. Bad teams don't have a home field edge; Bengals are 0-3 at home, scoring 9.7 ppg (three TDs on 34 drives, with 19 3/outs, 8 turnovers). Cincinnati allowed 12 TDs on 28 drives in last three games, losing the field position battle in those games by 26-14-8 yards. Jax is 2-1 on the road, allowing 18.3 pg; their '08 wins are by 2-3-7 points. AFC South road teams are 5-2 vs. spread in non-division games.

Bucs (5-3) @ Chiefs (1-6)- First visit to Arrowhead in 22 years for Bucs, whose four road games this year have all been decided by four or less points (1-3, only win 27-24 in overtime at Chicago). Thigpen showed life at QB for Chiefs last week (25-36/250 yards passing) but defense couldn't keep Favre out of end zone in last 2:00, with game on line. Four of KC's six losses are by 15+ points- they're 1-2 at home, losing 23-8 to Raiders, 34-10 to Titans, but upsetting Denver 33-19. NFC South teams are 14-6 vs. spread out of division, 6-4 on road, 6-2 as favorite. AFC West teams are 6-13 vs. spread out of division.

Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2)- Gang Green lost four of last five visits to Buffalo; they scored total of 17 points in pair of losses to Bills LY. Jets lost last two road games, at San Diego, Oakland- they ran ball for 377 yards in last two games, losing to Raiders, barely beating Chiefs- now they move way up in class, facing Buffalo squad that is 3-0 at home, with wins by 24-1-9 points. Bills turned ball over four times in both their losses, a total of five times in their five wins. Jets forced one turnover in last three games, none in last two. Four of Jets last five games went over the total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (3-4)- Ravens, who used to be Browns before moving to Maryland, lost three of last four visits to Lake Erie. Season series was split three of last four years-Ravens won first meeting 28-10 (-2) in Week 3, outrushing Browns 151-73, holding Anderson to 14-37/96 passing. Cleveland won three of last four games after 0-3 start, allowing just 14.3 pg (seven TDs on 40 drives)- they scored 20-35-23 in their wins, 11 or less points in its losses. Ravens are on road for third time in last four weeks- they're 1-2 on road this season, losing in OT at Heinz, 31-3 at Indy, and winning 27-13 at Miami.

Cardinals (4-3) @ Rams (2-5)- Rams are putting Coach Vermeil in Ring of Honor today, on day Kurt Warner returns to face former mates, with division contention on line for improving (2-1 under Haslett) Rams. Arizona crushed Rams 48-19 in last game of '07 season, have won five of last seven in series, winning last three visits here, but have lost seven in row to Rams when they score less than 31 points. Rams outgained Patriots 358-348 without Jackson in lineup last week; they've forced nine turnovers in last three games (+7). Arizona lost its last three road games, allowing 24-56-27 points. Key variable here is obviously Jackson's quad.

Lions (0-7) @ Bears (4-3)-Chicago (-3) won 34-7 at Ford Field four weeks ago, with Orton 24-34/328 passing, and Bears outgaining Lions 425-185 for game, holding Detroit to 3.0 yards/pass attempt. Lions covered their last two road games, are 0-4 SU on road, losing by 13-18-2-7 points- none of their last three losses are by more than eight points. Bears allowed 29.3 pg in three home games (2-1), have been held under 100 yards rushing in last four games (76.8 ypg). Orlovsky averaged 9.2/6.0 ypa last two games, so he is showing some improvement. Under is 3-1-1 in Detroit's last five games.

Packers (4-3) @ Titans (7-0)-Tennessee ripe for upset after home division win over rival Colts Monday night, their first MNF home game in four years; they're 4-0 at home, winning by 7-19-13-10 points (3-0 as home favorite). Packers are off bye- they're 2-1 on road, scoring 32 pg, losing 30-21 in Tampa, winning at Detroit, Seattle; over is 2-0-1 in those three games. Titans turned ball over only eight times (+8) in seven games. AFC South home favorites are 3-6 in non-divisional games; NFC North road dogs are 5-3. This is Packers' first visit to Music City since 2001.

Cowboys (5-3) @ Giants (6-1)- Big Blue KO'd Cowboys from playoffs LY, their first series win in last four tries. Pokes won last two visits here, 23-20/31-20-six of their last seven visits to Swamp had total of 43+. Dallas has much-needed bye on deck to heal wounds; they averaged at least 6.4 ypa in all six Romo starts, but in Johnson's two starts, they've thrown ball for 5.9/2.8 ypa, scoring just 27 points (three TDs on 22 drives)- they are 2-3 in last five games, giving up 26+ points in all three losses. Giants are 4-0 at home, winning by 9-3-38-12 points. Red flag: Giants have two TDs in last ten red zone drives.

Dolphins (3-4) @ Broncos (4-3)- In their last four games, Denver allowed 213-139-155-257 rushing yards, so expect Miami to try and pound ball. Fish are 1-2 on road, winning 38-13 in Foxboro, losing 31-10 in Arizona, 29-28 in Houston. Broncos had bye following 41-7 tank job loss at Foxboro on Monday night in Week 7, their third loss in four games after 3-0 start. Broncos allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. Miami won seven of last nine series games; they're 3-0 vs. spread when they score 24+ points. Five of seven Bronco games went over the total.

Falcons (4-3) @ Raiders (2-5)- Atlanta scored 9-9-14 points in its losses, average of 30.3 in its wins; Raiders are 0-5 if they allow more than 13 points- they gave up 27.3 pg in their three home games, losing 41-14 to Denver, 28-18 to Chargers (beat Jets 16-13 ot). Oakland is 7-4 in series, winning all three here (Falcons were 1-1 vs. Raiders in LA); last four series totals were all 45+. NFC South teams are 14-6 out of their division, 6-4 on road, 6-2 when favored. AFC West teams are 4-7 vs. spread as underdog in non-divisional games. Under is 3-1 in last four Atlanta games, 3-0 in last three Raider tilts.

Eagles (4-3) @ Seahawks (2-5)-Hard to imagine Seneca Wallace doing damage vs. Jim Johnson's defense, which held five of seven foes under 80 yards rushing, and four of last five foes under 6.0 ypa. Health of Westbrook always key for Philly squad that had 192 rushing yards vs. Atlanta, after averaging 81.4 in previous five games. Eagles are 1-2 on road, with average total in the three games, 62.7. NFC West underdogs are 5-11 vs spread in non-division games, 2-4 at home. Underdog is 7-3 vs spread in games involving an NFC East team playing non-division foe on the road. Visitor won last five series games.

Patriots (5-2) @ Colts (3-4)- These rivals are shells of themselves after meeting in three of last five playoff tournaments. Indy in desperate straits after Monday night loss to Titans; they're 1-4 this year if they score less than 31 points. Pats won field position battle in six of seven games this year (were -5 in loss at San Diego)- they gave up 38-30 points in their two losses, but held four of five victims to 16 or less points-- this is their third night game in last four weeks. Indy has zero takeaways (-4) in last two games; they are 2-0 when they win turnover battle, 1-4 when they do not.

Monday, November 3

Steelers (5-2) @ Redskins (6-2)-- Skins are 3-1 at home; they scored 7-17 points in their two losses, scored 23+ in five of six wins. Steelers are 3-1 on road (lost 15-6 at Philly), are 0-2 vs. NFC (also lost 21-14 to Giants). AFC North road dogs are 6-4 against spread this season. NFC East home favorites are 2-2. Pitt has only two takeaways in last four games. Skins have run ball for average of 165.4 ypg over last seven games. Steelers held last three foes under 90 rushing yards. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Redskin games, 1-3 in last four Steeler contests. Pitt is in nation's capital for first time in 20 years.

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