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NFL : Five Stats You Need to Know
NFL : Five Stats You Need to Know
NFL Week Nine: Five Stats You Need to Know
by: Scott Rickenbach
Heading into Week Nine of the NFL please note these stats (all are ATS – against the spread, unless otherwise noted) are definitely items to consider as you look at the deep NFL card. However, this does not mean these are “plays” in the true sense of the word. That said, the hope is that the ATS information below helps you as you “traverse” this week’s NFL card! As always, best of luck in all your sports gaming from Scott Rickenbach
1) The Philadelphia Eagles are 7-3 in their last ten games against an opponent from outside of the NFC East. This week it’s the Seahawks (NFC West) that the Eagles will be facing in Seattle. The Seahawks are a home dog here but they haven’t performed well in that role when facing a non-divisional foe. Seattle is 3-6 in their last nine opportunities in this role. Note that even though the Seahawks won 34-13 last week, they were actually outgained by 127 yards and San Francisco had 21 first downs while Seattle had just 14. The key to the game was four 49’ers turnovers! The Seahawks face a much tougher test this week as the Eagles looked strong in a 13 point win over the Falcons that including nearly 200 yards gained on the ground. RB Brian Westbrook’s was healthier than expected and QB Donovan McNabb finally had more healthy wide receivers available to throw too. Mentally, the Eagles have also been rejuvenated by gaining some ground in the NFC East over the last three weeks. Especially firing up the Eagles is seeing the Cowboys struggle as Dallas looks like it could be on its way out of the race without Tony Romo.
2) The Baltimore Ravens are just 5-11 when playing on the road against a divisional opponent! This week they’re facing a Browns team that is 10-3 in their last 13 as a home favorite. Cleveland is a very small favorite here and that is offering some solid line value to a team that appears to be putting together some consistency as they’ve been covering the number week after week. They only lost to the Redskins by three points two weeks ago. The week before that they thrashed the Giants on Monday night. Last week it was another impressive win as they upended the Jaguars in Jacksonville. These big wins are building confidence for this team and the Ravens struggles on the road in the AFC North are quite likely to continue in Cleveland! These two teams do not like each other and with a lot of intensity and a fired up home crowd, the Browns could be tough to upend in Cleveland.
3) The Kansas City Chiefs are on a 5-11 ATS run after a rare cover last week. Should we expect another rare cover this week? Absolutely not! The Chiefs have gotten the money just twice in their last 11 home games and they’re hosting a Buccaneers team that was firing on all cylinders before running into an angry Cowboys team in Dallas last week. Now it’s the Bucs “turn” as the angry team as they look to bounce back from last week’s four point defeat at Dallas. Note that Tampa Bay dominated Dallas statistically last week and they certainly should have no problems with a very poor Chiefs team that got the cover last week thanks to 3 Jets turnovers! Statistically, Kansas City is easily one of the worst teams in the league while the Buccaneers are balanced with good statistics on both sides of the ball this season!
4) Detroit has covered just 4 of their last 15 games when playing an NFC North foe. This week it’s the Bears and Chicago has covered 7 of their last 10 when hosting a divisional opponent. Also, the Lions current ATS run is hard to digest too! Detroit has covered just 4 of their last 15 games overall! Looking for improvement from the Lions? It’s unlikely to come this week as Detroit is just 6-14 ATS in their last twenty games on the road. They’re facing a Chicago team that has a big edge as they’re coming off of their bye week! The Bears had some momentum going into their bye week too as they had just scored 48 points against Minnesota. Now they take on a much weaker division foe this week!
5) The Buffalo Bills are 7-2 in their last nine home games against divisional opponents. This week they’re at home against a Jets team that, although off of a win, certainly didn’t look sharp in their non-covering victory over the Chiefs. Too many turnovers continue to plague the Jets and that is something that weaker teams like Kansas City don’t beat you with very often but a stronger team like the Bills absolutely can take advantage of turnovers. The Bills will be fired up after their loss at Miami last week. Turnovers were a problem for Buffalo last week as they had four but three of those were fumbles. That is very atypical of the way the Bills have played this season. Buffalo has been an opportunistic team and they’ve covered two of their three home games this season. The Jets should become victim number three as the Bills home dominance against their AFC East opponents continues!