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Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

LWBQ wrote:


Anyone have Kelso's 50* yet for Thursday night?

KELSO

50 Units
So Florida (-2½) over Cincinnati
7:30 PM -- Nippert Stadium
There are many reasons I upgraded this game from 10 units to 50 units but the biggest of those was the simple fact Cincinnati has no quarterback, with the first three guys on the depth chart out with injuries. This means the Bearcats are down to playing the scrubs at quarterback, and that won't get it done against a very good South Florida team still stinging from a 24-20 loss at Louisville on Saturday. To illustrate the decline in Cincinnati's offense since it lost all its quarterback, please note in the first three games of the season the team averaged 37 points per game. In their last four the Bearcats have averaged 19. If one digs deeper, one sees that defenses know the limitations of the offense and key on that. No fact better illustrates this than Cincinnati is 0-for-25 on its last 25 third down conversions. Cincinnati (5-2) will most certainly come to play, and will try to win the game with a good defense, but South Florida (6-2) has all the tools to overcome everything and get the money.
Clear. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

New Orleans +2 at PHOENIX

Hornets may have lost ATS last night, but tonight they find themselves in a much better situation, as a road dog against a team that put everything they had into beating their opponent last night. But let me explain further...

I told you with my 50K paid winner on the Suns last night, that they would be extremely motivated in their season opener against the Spurs, for obvious reasons (revenge). Now, one day later, I say the Suns face their first letdown of the season, as getting up for their marquee road game at San Antonio was easy, but doing so on back-to-back nights against a very good Hornets team won't be.

Hornets meanwhile, went 4-0 SUATS versus the Suns last season, using their mix of youth and athleticism to stymy Phoenix. Not only that, but New Orleans was one of the best team in the NBA playing with no rest, going an impressive 26-7-2 ATS in that spot! Also of note, the Hornets are a rock-solid 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Phoenix!

From a match up standpoint, the Suns are in big trouble and its starts at the point guard position. Nash simply doesn't have the speed to cover Chris Paul, who ran rampant agains Phoenix last season. While many are talking about coach Porter and the new defensive philosophy of the Suns, I'll believe it when I see it! Paul torched this team last season, averaging 29 ppg and 11 assists in their 4 wins over the Suns... And he'll torch them again tonight.

Bottom line, look for the Hornets to take advantage of a Suns team that put everything they had into beating the Spurs last night. New Orleans has the youth to flourish in the tail-end of a back-to-back, while the Suns show their age in that spot. In the end, the play here rest squarely on the Hornets.

Take New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix in this NBA match up.

2♦ NEW ORLEANS

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Chris Jordan

Charlotte +10 at CLEVELAND

Tonight we're going to take take the Bobcats plus the big number against Cleveland.

It's not likely LeBron James and his newlook Cavaliers are going to lose their home oepner, but after tipping off the season in Boston, watching the Celtics raise their banner, taking a seven-point halftime lead and then letting it slip away to the defending champs ... well, I'd have to say it was an emotional drain.

Cleveland managed just 13 points in the third quarter, which is the main reason the C's were able to come back, but the fact is, the smart play was on the Cavaliers that night, as they're now on a 7-1 ATS run against Boston.

Tonight the smart play is on the Bobcats, who are on a 5-1 ATS run in Cleveland. Also, the underdog has covered four of the last five meetings while the road team is a perfect 4-0 the last four times these two have danced.

Take the points.

4♦ BOBCATS

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Charlotte +10 at CLEVELAND

Take the points with the Bobcats tonight when they visit Cleveland to take on the Cavs.

Charlotte has fared pretty well against Cleveland, particularly on the road.  The Bobcats are 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings overall with the Cavs and 5-1 ATS in their last six visits to Cleveland.

The underdog is also on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five meetings.

The Bobcats also have the optimism of having new coach Larry Brown calling the shots, and if anyone can take a woebegone franchise and turn it around it’s the former Tarheel alum.

Take the points with Charlotte as they stay within the number.

3♦ CHARLOTTE

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

Scored another free winner on Wednesday as the Nuggets covered the number at Utah, giving me a 6-2 record with my last eight comp plays. Let’s make it two in a row in the NBA by backing the Bobcats plus the points at the Cavaliers.

Cleveland went to Boston two nights ago and was able to hang with the defending champs the entire game, but eventually lost 90-85 as a six-point road underdog, and I backed the Cavs in that one. So why go against them here? Because Cleveland has been notorious in recent years of playing down to the level of its competition … and that includes the Bobcats, who have cashed in five of the last eight meetings against the Cavs; they’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Cleveland (all as an underdog). Also, the Cavs went 2-7 ATS as a favorite down the stretch last regular season and 1-6 ATS in their last seven regular-season home games.

Finally, Charlotte may not be a playoff contender this season, but there’s no arguing that there’s talent on Larry Brown’s roster, including Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, Raymond Felton, Sean May, Emeka Okafor and Jared Dudley – and that’s not even mentioning the disappointing Adam Morrison.

Bottom line: Cleveland was a double-digit favorite just three times last year, and although the franchise has added some nice pieces to help LeBron, I don’t think the Cavs are THAT much better than last year. Also, underdogs went 10-2 ATS last night, with five of those pups winning outright! Grab the generous points.

4♦ CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Thursday take the Hornets in Phoenix.

Let me first say that this is far from being even a top comp play as the slate is bare and this is the best of the worst. But with that said I'll take my chances on Chris Paul and the Hornets here in the Land of the Sun.

Both teams are on the dreaded back-to-back and to get some points with probably the superior team is enough for me. Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and the rest of the high flying Suns are starting to become an older team that should have more issues playing for a second straight night.

Meanwhile Paul and the up and coming Hornets just seem to be young and fresher and a group that should be able to handle the spot a little bit better. Being on the road out West can never be easy and the Suns are still a super talented team that can run you out of their building but I just do not see that happening today.

Look for the next greatest superstar point guard to do his thing and for the Hornets to cash the ticket tonight!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

All Phoenix minus the home points tonight. I mean given that both teams are playing on back to back nights and with the Hornets playing both games on the road it’s the Suns who will have the advantage tonight. After all ending last year it was the Suns went 9-3 ATS in their final 12 home games. Plus, factoring in that Phoenix will want to get revenge over a New Orleans team that swept the Suns in four games last season I look for a strong performance from the home team tonight. So while New Orleans is a tough team asking them to open the season with back to back road games is a bit much to ask. Take the Suns minus the points!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tony Weston

OK, so we clanked our shot on the Spurs last night. It looked good for so long, then San Antonio’s old bones got the best of them.

That’s fine. We’re switching gears and heading out to the college gridiron as we’re taking Cincinnati at home tonight against South Florida.

The number is surprisingly close, as the Bearcats are only getting about 2 1/2 points, depending on where you’re going.

Both teams come into this game with winning records SU, as South Florida is 6-2 and Cincinnati is 5-2 SU. However, both have been horrible money makers this year as the Bulls are only 2-5 ATS and the Bearcats are only 2-4.

Keep in mind that South Florida is 2-6 ATS its last eight games overall and is 0-8 ATS against teams with winning records and is 3-6 ATS as a road favorite. You turn to the other side and you’ll find that Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS its last 13 home games, is 6-1-1 ATS after a SU loss and is 10-4-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

Also consider that in this rivalry the Bearcats are on a 4-0 run ATS and are 3-1 SU. Last season Cincinnati was installed as a 4 1/2 point road underdog at South Florida and won outright, 38-33. And in 2006, the last time these two played in Cincinnati’s backyard, the Bearcats destroyed the Bulls, winning 23-6 as a 1-point favorite.

Cincinnati will continue its winning ways against South Florida and get over tonight. Take the points and take the Bearcats at home.

3♦ CINCINNATI

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

3Daily Winners

South Florida vs. Cincinnati U
Play: Cincinnati

South Florida has proven to be mildly overrated with neither the offense nor the defense as good as expected. The offensive line had been pass-blocking better, but when RT Marc Dile went down against Louisville, the flood gates opened and quarterback Matt Grothe was sacked a season-high five times. The Bulls also were held to a school-record low of eight net yards rushing. Cincinnati was blasted by UConn last week and has serious quarterback issues having to make two offensive gameplans for whomever can play. Off a loss, the Bearcats 6-0 ATS record off a road loss over the last three seasons and 5-1-1 ATS after failing to score 20 points. Both Big East teams are faced with must win situations, with South Florida 0-8 ATS in last eight meetings with teams with winning records, with Cincinnati 10-4-1 ATS in the same spot. Bearcats claw to win.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati/ South Florida Under 51

The Under is 9--0 when the Bulls are away vs. teams that allow under 120 yards rushing per game and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on turf, while the Under is 14-3 in Cincinnati?s last 17 games in October and 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bulls defense has been very good this year, as they are ranked 11th overall, 8th vs the run and they allow just 18.4 ppg. That run defense has allowed just 81 ypg and 2.6 ypc and could be the focal point for stopping a Cincy attack that is hurting at the QB spot. The Bearcats come in ranked 46th overall and 25th in passing, but last week showed how much they are hurting at the QB spot as they had 3 INT?s and went 0-14 in 3rd down conversions. The Bearcats offense does put up 27.1 ppg overall, but they have struggled in their last 4 games putting up just 19.8 ppg over that span. Last week the Bearcats did allow 40 points to Uconn, but that was mostly due to the TO?s the gave up, as they allowed UConn just 349 yards and 3 of 18 on 3rd downs, plus in their previous 4 games the Cats defense allowed just 13.8 ppg, while in their 3 home games this year they allowed have just 12.3 ppg. Both of these defenses will come to play tonight and keep the score well below the posted total.


2 UNIT PLAY

2 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Cincinnati +8.5  &  Cincy/ South Florida Under 57

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