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MONDAY NIGHT 'PRIME' PLAY
MONDAY NIGHT 'PRIME' PLAY
Even after the Ohio State loss on Saturday night, still 18-10 (65%) last 28 prime time plays. A bounce back is in order tonight.
Desperation Cover = Colts +4
Why would I even need to say anything about betting against Peyton Manning on MNF? This is the record of his last 7 starts/wins on Monday night. 2 of these were coming off a loss.
29-7 W Jax
34-16 W Cin
45-28 W St. Louis
40-21 W NE
26-7 W Pitt
31-29 W Min
38-35 W TB
Now, I think where many cappers lose their edge in football, specifically the NFL, is they forget to handicap Coaching and QB's. They simply look at a trend sheet and last week's game to make a judgment. In this matchup the Colts get a check for both coaching and at QB, which are 2 huge elements not to miss in the NFL. While Manning has struggled, there is something to be noted about experience and long term consistency. It's rare that he is embarrassed like we saw against Green Bay, and it's rare this man loses 2 games in a row like that. So, if your looking for Manning to come out and throw 3 interceptions tonight in a losing effort, you would be severely mistaken.
One thing you must understand is that this is the AFC South, and these teams play each other twice a year. The Colts, despite their issues, are a well coached team and they still have an elite QB in the NFL. Dungy has been able to dominate Fisher over and over in this matchup. While Kerry Collins is doing a serviceable job at QB, I can't fully bet on him against the Colts on MNF. I have to give it to Jeff Fisher, he has really strung together a nice streak here with little to work with and a "premier" QB riding the pine. However, he will be challenged tonight by Tony Dungy coming off a brutal and embarrassing loss.
The Colts are in desperation mode tonight and the 4 points is a gift bestowed upon us by the oddsmaking gods. You won't get many chances to grab the Colts as the underdog and they come in at 5-2 ATS as the underdog their last 7 in this spot. If this line were 1.5 - 2 points, then we may have an argument here. But, it goes without saying you should back the Colts on MNF +4. If the Titans win (notice I say IF), then it won't be by more than a field goal.