MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Jimmy Boyd

5* AFC South GOTY on Colts +4

I like the Colts to spoil Tennessee brilliant start this week. Indy is coming off a terrible performance at Green Bay last week and it will be in full blown bounce back mode against its division rivals. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Plays on road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Colts.

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Robert Ferrinngo

2-Unit Play. Take Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis

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Sixth Sense

TENNESSEE –4 Indianapolis 40.5

The Colts have been a very average team this year and it showed again last week in Green Bay against a Packers team that is better than average but not great. Indy was out gained just 4.8yppl to 4.6yppl but got a good portion of their yards in mop up duty. They also turned the ball over twice, with both interceptions returned for touchdowns. Tennessee destroyed a bad KC team, 34-10, out gaining the Chiefs 7.8yppl to 4.8yppl, including rushing for 8.3ypr. Indy averages just 3.3ypr against 3.9ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Their defense allows 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. Tennessee hasn’t been great on offense, averaging 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.6yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.8yps against 5.2yps and 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl overall. Tennessee qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 98-48-4 and a Monday night situation, which is 26-8-2. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 652-527-42, including a subset, which is 523-399-30. In addition, they qualify in another fundamental rushing situation, which is 280-192-20. Numbers favor Tennessee by 11 points and predict about 35 points. Indy has played three games on the road this year. They won at Minnesota 18-15 but were down in that game 15-0 because Minnesota couldn’t put the ball in the endzone. The Tennessee defense resembles Minnesota’s defense but is better. They were getting blown out at Houston before some lucky turnovers went their way to allow them back into the game. And, they were blown out at Green Bay. None of those teams are as good as Tennessee. The only way Tennessee doesn’t cover here is they either turn the ball over or can’t score touchdowns, which allows Indy to possibly stay in the game. Plenty of value, solid situations and a much better defense laying a short number at home. TENNESSEE 23 INDIANAPOLIS 13

3% TENNESSEE -4

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Marc Lawrence

Triple-Dime Bet

IND +4 vs TEN

A crucial game for the 3-3 Colts takes place in Tennessee Monday Night when they take on the undefeated 6-0 Titans in a key NFC South Division showdown.  From a technical aspect, according to our database, Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy is 14-1 SU and ATS in his NFL head coaching career in games off a SU favorite loss when his team's win-loss percentage is .500 or less, including 10-0 as a dog or favorite of less than 4 points.  On the flip side, Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS as a home favorite in games off a win of more than 10 points versus a division opponent that is not winless on the season.  Top that off with the fact that NFL teams who start the season 6-0 SU and ATS are 0-5 ATS in Game Seven when favored by less than 10 points and we'll look for the Colts to spring the upset here tonight.

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Dave Malinksy

6* Tennessee

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Spylock

1 unit Tennessee

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Doc's

3 Unit Play. Take Tennessee Titans -4 over Indianapolis Colts

The Titans continue to be doubted week in and week out, but all that they do is win games and are playing an overrated Colts team on Monday night. Indy is still without S Bob Sanders and without him their defense is not the same. Green bay ran the ball right down their throat and expect the Titans and their one-two punch of Johnson and White to have similar success. The Titans take control of the AFC and we collect big the process as well.

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ErockMoney

Indianapolis

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Players of America

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
The Play: Indianapolis Colts +4.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)

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Brandon Lang

20 Dime Titans (-4)

FREE - Colts/Titans Over

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John Ryan

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Pick:Colts +4

Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Indianapolis – AiS shows an 87% probability that Indianapolis will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 75% probability of winning the game. There is no advantage in playing the money line and with 15* amount already on the line there is NO reason to add additional risk to this play. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 making 19.4 units since 1997 for 81%. Play on road teams in weeks 5 through 9 that are off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. Here is a second system that has gone 72-38 ATS for 66% since 1997. Play against favorites with a good defense allowing 4.8 or less yards/play and after outgaining opposition by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is just 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992; 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Colts are also in a series of strong roles noting they are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons; is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus excellent teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. Dungy is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus excellent teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. The Colts largest problem is the lack of balance on offense. There is only one team that has a greater differential between passing and running plays and that would be the worst team in the NFL – the Detroit Tigers. The Colts running game ranks last in the league, but there are matchup advantages that the Colts can exploit tonight. The offense has it’s second QB back in the lineup and he is the Center Richard Saturday. He is the guy responsible for calling and organizing the blocking assignments that Manning adds at the LOS. He is also the guy that can change blocking assignments literally when the play clock is running out and the defense shows any form of zone blitz scheme. Let’s not forget that the Colts offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone efficiency scoring TD at a 71% rate of the 17 trips into the red zone. The Titans rarely blitz, however and are vulnerable on the defensive perimeter. Titans corners Harper and Finnegan have had strong success to date, but they have yet to face two of the best WR in the league in Harrison and Wayne. Simply said, if Manning has even an extra second to make reads he will shred this defense – like he did against Baltimore. Take the Colts.

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Kelso

50 Units Colts / Titans Under

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Larry Ness

Prime Time Delight

Colts

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Nick Bogdanovich

Large Titan -4

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BEN BURNS

UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH

OTTAWA

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

SMALL PLAY
COLTS / TITANS UNDER 41

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IndianCowboy

Colts/Titans Under 40.5 (POD)

Note that 53% of the public is on the home team here in the Titans here and the line has jumped up from the opening.  What a year for Peyton Manning and the Colts huh? He has thrown 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this year which is uncharacteristic for him. The Colts remember lost to the Titans last year 16-10 at home.  That was a huge game for the Titans as they won on the road at Indy. That was actually a revenge game as the Colts actually won 22-20 on the road at Tennessee before that.  You want to know what is amazing about these Titans?  It's the fact that this team has a quarterback in Collins who has thrown under 900 yards for the year, has thrown for just 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and yet this team still finds itself 6-0.  Heck, this team has quietly done it with fabulous defense and opportunistic offensive success. I would love to take the Titans here, but keep in mind the Colts come off an ugly 20 point beating at the hands of the Packers on the road.  They are therefore on a bounce-back. The Titans of course have covered all 6 games this year. They come off an impressive 34-10 win at KC.  But, the question begs, do you really want to go against the Colts on a big bounce-back?  Plus, the Colts have revenge from last year's latest loss at their dome to the Titans. Remember, the Titans last two home games as well and of course, it is MNF so the crowd will be gonig nuts. The Titans won their last two games by scores of 30-17 over the Vikings and 31-12 over Houston. This begs the question of the total since the side seems unappealing. The public by a 2:1 margni favor the over here and yet the line seems unwilling to go up.  In fact, it has gone down. In fact, you ready for this?  The last 6 times these two teams have played the total has gone under.  Thus, that will be my play for today.  The under is 4-0 for the Colts after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game as their defense rebounds well and the under is 6-0 the last six times these two teams have hooked up as the research indiciates.

He is calling this his POD and giving it for free

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anyone seen big al or maddux

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DOC'S

3 Units Anaheim / Columbus Over 5

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