MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Dr. Bob

TENNESSEE (-4.0) 23 Indianapolis 16

I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated. The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the pre-season and was obviously rusty). Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and good against the pass and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.

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Allen Eastman

$2200.00 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis

This is our Game of the Week and we're backing the best team in the NFL right now. The Colts have been getting run over by more physical teams and they were absolutely manhandled last week against the Packers in a game in which they were favored. The Titans are the best team in the league because they are the most physical team in the league, and that is exactly what the Colts have had trouble with all year. Tennessee is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 6-0 ATS this year, and the 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Indy. This is a chance for the Titans to show the world that they are for real and I think they do it with another dominating performance. This is not the same Colts team that we're used to seeing and they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 divisional games.

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WILD BILL

Colts +3 1/2 (5 units)
Colts-Titans Over 42 1/2  (5 units)

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Erik Scheponik

Colts (+4) @Titans

Tennessee is the deserving favorite here, as they bring a perfect 6-0 record into this contest. The defense is rock solid, ranking in the NFL’s top 3 in points per game (11.0), yards per game (269 yards per game), and yards per play (4.5 yards per play). They are definitely one of the league’s best coached by one of the league’s best in Jeff Fisher. However, it must be noted that they have not yet played a team with a winning record, and the best statistical offense they have shut down is Houston, a team who has gotten much of their yards in games where they trailed big early. In fact, 3 of the offenses they have faced are among the league’s bottom 6. Not saying the Titans aren’t the real deal, but they certainly better be if they want to pull away from a veteran Colts team that is basically in must-win mode here. Tennessee leans heavily on their defense, and I’d like to see them against a real offense before christening them the new king of this division. The Colts trail the Titans by 3 games in the AFC South, and have already lost a divisional game to Jacksonville. They have played plenty of big games over the last 5-6 seasons, and that experience will help them here. They have played a tougher schedule than has Tennessee, and have dealt with a ton of injuries. Although Joseph Addai is probably out again here, they are now healthy on the offensive line, and there’s a chance that one of the league’s best safeties Bob Sanders returns today (check status). Peyton Manning has seen everything this league can throw at him defensively, and I have to believe that he will find something that works against the Titans’ rugged defense as Indy still has plenty of weapons. He’s beaten the Titans 8 out of the last 10 times he’s faced them, with one of the losses coming in the season finale last year when the Colts rested their starters. That’s the only time that Tennessee has been favored during those 10 meetings before today. Indy is 8-3 to the number as an away underdog under Tony Dungy, and have won 12 or more games in 5 straight seasons. You don’t get that kind of pedigree in a 4-point underdog too often. They have been in must win games before, while Tennessee is in unfamiliar territory here. They have the better record, but are they really better based on who they have beaten? Also, can they generate offense if Indy puts up some of their own points on that mighty defense? We shall see, but this game is priced like those questions don’t exist when they certainly do. Like I said, must-win for Manning and company. Indy by 3

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STAT FOX THE PLATINUM SHEET

INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE

Tennessee is starting to resemble the Green Bay team on ’07, one that is winning games but not getting the respect it deserves from the oddsmakers. Still, even those types of clubs fail to cover spreads occasionally, and the way with which the Titans are winning games offers up a good matchup historically for the Colts. Look at a couple of the trends: INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 28.1, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*). AND INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 27.3, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 2*). The Titans have also been far from reliable as a home favorite of 3.5-7 points: 10-22 ATS. If the Colts have any fight left in them, they will bring it on Monday night. It could be their last chance to save ’08. This has the feel of a late field goal win either way. I’ll take the points and Peyton Manning. Play: Indianapolis +4

TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 8 (ATS & Total)

Monday, 10/27/2008 (225) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (226) TENNESSEE
The UNDER is 6-0 in the L6 games between TENNESSEE & INDIANAPOLIS.

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Pointwise

TENNESSEE 30 - Indianapolis 20

Titans just keep on doing it. Not only are they the only unbeaten team in the NFL, but they've gone 5-0-1 ATS this year, with 10, 18, 14½, 10, & 15 pt covers. Racked up 332 RYs vs KC, with Johnson & White posting 168 & 149 RYs,respectively. Colts still seeking an overland game, as they've been outrushed 922-420 thus far, & Manning is off a pair of crucial INTs in loss to the Packers. And check Tennessee with allowing less than 18 pts in each of its last 10 games. We'll give the Colts a bit more than that, but bucking this Titan squad has been suicidal. Are 4-0 ATS in series lately

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Sportsinsights

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

This is a classic "new kid in town" versus the "old gunslinger" match-up. Tennessee brings the league's only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We'll take the points on the "old gunslinger" and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.

Indianapolis Colts +4

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Vegas Vic

Colts (+4) over TITANS

Every time we count Peyton Manning out, talk about him losing a few inches off his fastball, he seems to come back with an outstanding performance. Indy was 2-2 going into the Baltimore game, coming off a tight win against the lowly Texans, and the Colts crushed the Ravens, 31-3. Obviously, we're not expecting them to squash the 6-0 club from Tennessee, but we are expecting the Horseshoes to cover as an underdog, a spot where they've covered four of the last six.

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THE GOLD SHEET

*Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up, Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams, which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)

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Power Sweep

Indianapolis at TENNESSEE

The Titans are the last undefeated team in the NFL & get a stiff test vs the team that has won the AFC South every year since realignment. IND wasn’t as good as their 31-3 win vs BAL showed as Manning had 2 int ret’d for 161 yds and 2 TD’s and could not handle a windy venue LW. TEN matches up well here with their strong run game vs a suspect DL & a powerful DL vs an iffy OL. This is only the 2nd time IND has been a division dog (1-1 SU & ATS). TEN could take a big step forward with a win but IND doesn’t want anything to do with looking at a Wildcard this early.

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Jimmy The Moose

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Buffalo Sabres

Talk about two teams going in opposite directions. The Sabres have yet to lose in regulation time this year at 6-0-2. The Sens are just 2-5-1 on the year with 7 of those 8 game son home ice. Sabres allowing just 1.6 goals/game on the year. Things will not be getting better for the Senators tonight. Play on Buffalo -.

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DUNKEL

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to wrap up their first WS title since 1980 behind ace Cole Hamels, who is 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA in his four postseason starts.  Philadelphia is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 2.   Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170). 

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 15.888; Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.906
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Under


NHL

Anaheim at Columbus
After an 0-4 start to the season, the Ducks have turned it around and will look to complete a 4-0 road trip tonight in Columbus.  Anaheim is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 2.  Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-125).   

Game 51-52: Ottawa at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.452; Buffalo 11.153
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+140); Over

Game 53-54: NY Rangers at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.529; NY Islanders 11.104
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 55-56: Anaheim at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.903; Columbus 10.850
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-125); Over

Game 57-58: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.823; Minnesota 12.975
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Under

Game 59-60: Boston at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.877; Edmonton 10.293
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2;  4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Under

Game 61-62: Detroit at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.308; Los Angeles 11.950
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Under


NFL

Game 225-226: Indianapolis at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.168; Tennessee 142.624
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 7 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4); Under

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Dave Cokin

ANA Ducks / COB Blue Jackets
Take COB Blue Jackets

The Ducks are enjoying a terrific road trip, and they're hoping to make it a perfect 4-0 as they finish off the journey tonight in Columbus. But this could be a spot where Anaheim could be a bit satisfied with what they've already accomplished, and they could also be looking ahead to Wednesday's showdown back in SoCal against the Red Wings. The Blue Jackets appear live as home dogs in this contest, so I'll make the call on Columbus to come out on top.

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Jim Feist

DET Redwings / LA Kings
Take LA Kings

Red Wings off to a good start in defense of their title with a 5-1-1 mark heading into the weekend. The Red Wings are second in the league in Power Play percentage (31%) with nine goals and 15th in killing penalties (82.7%). Despite the fast start, GM Ken Holland is a bit skeptical. "I look at our team and I don't know if we're going to win a game," Holland told NHL.com. "I know our team, but I don't know other teams," Holland said. Meanwhile, the LA Kings are 3-3-0 after six games with six points and in a three way tie for the bottom spot in the Pacific division. Surprisingly though, the Kings are just one of two teams yet to allow a power play goal (Wild are the other). The Kings have successfully killed 29 power play opportunities by the opposition this year. LW Dustin Brown leads the team with six points thus far. These teams are pretty much even in their history with Detroit holding a slight edge, 73-70. For a team like the Kings to surprise the Stanley Cup Champions, we expect it to happen in an early season matchup like this. We'll take the Kings at home as a dog.

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Carlo Campanella

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

These Titans will want to prove that their unbeaten 6-0 start is NOT a fluke against Division rival Indianapolis, especially on a nationally televised Monday Night game. Lay the points against a struggling Colts squad that's 1-3 ATS in the Road Dog role on MNF and coming off their worst loss of the year in Green Bay. Tennessee is allowing just 11 points per game this season and we find them at a perfect 5-0 ATS on Monday Night Football following back-to-back wins!

Play on: Tennessee

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Bobby Maxwell

Tampa Bay at PHILADELPHIA -180 

Yes, it's going to happen tonight for the Phillies. For the first time in 28 years the World Series champs will reside in Philadelphia when Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09) comes out tonight and delivers another postseason gem and gets the Phillies the title.

Hamels is 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA in the postseason and won Game 1 in Tampa Bay when he gave up two runs on five hits in seven innings. He's gone at least seven innings in all four of his postseason starts, holding the opposition to two runs or less in all four games.

Hamels outdueled the Rays' Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) in the series opener. Kazmir gave up three runs on six hits in six innings, including a two-run homer in the first inning to the Phillies' Chase Utley.

Philadelphia's offense has found its form the last couple games. And slugger Ryan Howard has three homers in his last 6 ABs, including two homers and five RBIs in Sunday's 10-2 victory. The Phillies used the long ball to win games all season and they did it Sunday and will do it again tonight.

The Phils are 24-6 in their last 30 at Citizen Bank Park and they are also 38-16 overall, 21-7 against winning teams and 9-3 in Hamels' last 12 starts.

Tampa Bay has been game, but looked like a beaten team in the final innings of Game 4. The Phillies will get the title tonight. Lay the chalk and play Philadelphia.

3♦ PHILADELPHIA

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Indianapolis (3-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (6-0 SU and ATS)

The Titans, who are off to their best start in franchise history, will try to remain the NFL’s only unbeaten team when they host the defending AFC South champion Colts at LP Field in Nashville.

Tennessee rolled to a 34-10 victory at Kansas City last week, extending its winning streak to nine (8-1 ATS) dating back to last season – the team’s longest such streak since winning 11 in a row in 1993 when the franchise was still in Houston. The Titans rolled up 455 total yards against the Chiefs, including 332 on the ground thanks to Chris Johnson (18 carries, 168 yards, 1 TD) and LenDale White (17 carries, 149 yards, 3 TDs).

The Titans have the NFL’s stingiest defense, allowing just 66 points through six games, and they rank third in the league in total defense, giving up just 268.5 yards per contest (179 through the air and 89.5 on the ground).

Indianapolis went to Green Bay last week and fell 34-14 as a one-point favorite, with All-Pro QB Peyton Manning finishing with a 46.6 passer rating as he went 21-for-42 for 229 yards and two INTs, both of which were returned for touchdowns. The Colts’ defense has been inconsistent this season, giving up 329 yards per game, including a whopping 153.7 on the ground.

These division rivals split last year’s meetings, with the visitor winning both contests and Tennessee going 2-0 ATS. In fact, the Titans have cashed in the last four battles with Indy after going 0-6 ATS in the previous six. Tony Dungy’s Colts have won eight of the last 10 meetings SU, going 4-1 SU in the last five trips to Nashville.

The Colts are 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS on the road in Monday Night Football, while Tennessee is 11-8 SU and 9-9-1 ATS at home on Mondays.

Indianapolis is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games against AFC South rivals, but otherwise the Colts are on ATS streaks of 7-1 in October, 5-0 on Mondays and 5-2 following a non-cover. Jeff Fischer’s Titans are on ATS runs of 10-1 against the AFC South, 5-0 after a spread-cover, 6-0 after a straight-up win and 7-2 the last nine years in Week 8.

For the Colts, the over is 4-1 in their last five against AFC South competition and 5-2 in their last seven after a non-cover. For Tennessee, the over is on runs of 21-10-1 in October and 6-1 in Week 8, but the under is 6-2 in its last eight against the AFC. Also, the last six meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total.

Finally, the over is 8-0-1 in Monday night games this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


WORLD SERIES

Tampa Bay (8-7) at Philadelphia (10-3)

With the chance to secure the club’s first world championship in 28 years, the Phillies send ace Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA) to the mound for Game 5 of the World Series at Citizens Bank Park. Meanwhile, needing a win to save their season, the Rays will turn to Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) in a pitching rematch of Game 1.

After a 10-2 win on Sunday, the Phillies hold a commanding 3-1 lead in this best-of-7 series. Philadelphia has yet to lose in six postseason home games, and Hamels has won three of those six and he’s 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA in four starts this month. In Sunday’s blowout win, Phillies’ slugger Ryan Howard belted two homers and drove in five runs, while Joe Blanton pitched six strong innings and hit a solo homer.

The Phillies are 24-6 in their last 30 at Citizen Bank Park, and they’re on additional hot streaks of 38-16 overall, 21-7 against winning teams and 9-3 with Hamels on the hill. However, Charlie Manuel’s club is still only 20-37 in its last 57 interleague games.

The Rays are still on runs of 6-4 in interleague play, 8-4 against the N.L. East and 5-3 in National League ballparks. Also, despite being down 3-1 in this series, Tampa Bay has still won nine of the last 14 meetings with Philadelphia. The Rays won seven of Kazmir’s last 10 starts in the regular season and have split his four outings in the postseason.

In Game 1 of this series, Kazmir gave up three runs on six hits in six innings, including a two-run, first-inning homer to Chase Utley to take the 3-2 loss. His lone October road start came in Game 5 in Boston during the ALCS when he blanked the Red Sox on two hits for six innings but the bullpen collapsed and the Rays lost, 8-7. Tampa Bay is 21-9 in Kazmir’s last 30 starts overall.

Hamels was the winner in Game 1 as he gave up two runs on five hits in seven innings in getting the win. He has pitched at least seven innings in all four of his postseason starts, holding the opposition to two runs or less in each outing.

With Hamels on the mound, the under is on runs of 6-0 overall, but the over is 5-2 in his last seven interleague outings. For Kazmir, the over is 7-2 in his last nine trips to the hill

The under is 7-4-3 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these teams, including 2-1-1 in this series. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-1-1 for the Rays overall, 8-4-1 for the Phillies overall, 9-4-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs and 9-3-1 for the Phillies in interleague play. Conversely, the over is 9-3-1 in Tampa’s last 13 road games and 26-8-2 in its last 36 in N.L. parks.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER

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Nostradamus

TB/Phil Under 7.5 -130
Indy/Tenn Under 40.5
Ott/Buff Over 6 +115
Chic/Minn Under 5 +100
Bost/Edm Under 5.5 -110
Det/LA Under 6 -135

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Sportsbettingstats

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Last week the Colts were crushed, losing to the Packers 34-14 while the Titans remained undefeated with a win over the Chiefs 34-10. Oh how times change, as the Titans are the favored team and the once high flying Colts are only .500 and need a win to stay in the playoff picture. The Colts are led by QB Peyton Manning (1531 yds 8 TD 7 INT) and his main targets are Reggie Wayne (35 rec 492 yds 4 TD) and Anthony Gonzalez (26 rec 330 yds). The Colts rushing attack is led by Joseph Addai (216 yds 4 TD), who is questionable for the game with a hamstring injury. The Titans are led by QB Kerry Collins (863 yds 3 TD 3 INT) and his main targets are Bo Scaife (23 rec 274 yds 1 TD) and Justin Gage (12 rec 176 yds 1 TD). The Titans rushing attack is led by rookie Chris Johnson (549 yds 3 TD) and LenDale White (314 yds 8 TD).

Staff Pick: The Titans are winning with their defense, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. The Titans are running the ball great and play a low risk passing game, which cuts down on turnovers. The Colts have looked nothing like they have in the past few years and even QB Manning has pedestrian numbers compared to the stats he usually puts up. Manning is not getting the time to pass, as the offensive line of the Colts has been a disappointment and has been starting 2 rookie Guards fro most of the year. On defense it is not much better for the Colts, as they rank 16th but are especially weak against the run. That is not good as they visit Tennessee who rely on their rushing game for most of their offense. The Colts need to win this game, as if they do not they will be 3-4 and the Titans will be 7-0 and they are in the same division. The Titans can really get a firm grip on the AFC South with a win. For the Colts to win they have to protect Manning and get back some of the magic in their passing offense, which has disappeared for most of the year. For the Titans to be successful they will have to run the ball and get to Manning. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Colts will snap out of their funk and play like the Colts of old in tonight's game. Manning will put up big numbers, and they will knock the Titans off and hand them their first loss of the season.

Colts 32 Titans 24

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies ace Cole Hamels has been unconscious during his team's run to the World Series as he looks to become the first postseason pitcher to start and win five games in a single playoffs. However, he's been very good all season and, in fact, has only yielded more than two earned runs in a single outing ONCE since 8/1. The Rays struggle vs. lefties (4.1 runs/game) and are 36-18 to the Under vs. southpaws this season. Scott Kazmir is a quality arm that can keep the Philly bats in check.

Play on: Under

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