MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

SPORTS ADVISORS

Denver (4-2, 2-4 ATS) at New England (3-2, 2-3 ATS)

Two perennial AFC powers square off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., when the Broncos take on the Patriots with both teams in need of a victory.

Both squads have lost two of their last three games, with the Patriots falling 30-10 last Sunday night in San Diego as a six-point underdog, while the Broncos were losing 24-17 to the Jaguars as a 3½-point home chalk. Denver is mired in an 0-4 ATS slide, while the Patriots have alternated spread-covers this season.

Denver is putting up 27.7 points and nearly 400 total yards per contest, but it’s been the defense that has dropped the ball for Mike Shanahan’s team, giving up 25.7 points and 394.7 yards per outing. Third-year QB Jay Cutler has put up impressive numbers through six games, with 1,693 passing yards, 12 TDs and five INTs.

Bill Belichick’s defense has given up 89 points in its last three games, including 38 to Miami the last time the Pats were in Foxborough, the result being a 38-13 loss as 12½-point favorites. And without reigning league MVP Tom Brady, New England’s offense isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard like last season, averaging just 17.8 points and 298 yards per game. QB Matt Cassel has been very shaky in place of Brady, averaging 182 passing ypg with three TDs and four INTs through six contests.

Denver has owned this rivalry lately, winning five of the last six meetings SU and ATS dating back to 2001, including taking the last three by at least eight points. The last time these two met was two seasons ago in New England, when the Broncos earned a 17-7 victory as 6½-point road ‘dogs. Going back to 1997, the Broncos are 7-3 SU and ATS against the Pats, and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10 clashes.

Denver is 6-20 SU and 9-16-1 ATS on the road in the Monday night spotlight, while the Patriots are 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS at home.

The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the highway 3-11 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in October and 1-4-1 against AFC competition. Conversely, the Patriots are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 after a straight-up defeat and 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 October outings, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-9 overall, 0-7 at Gillette Stadium, and 2-6 following a non-cover.

The under is 5-2 the last seven times Denver has been on Monday night, but otherwise the Broncos sport “over” streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3 against the AFC, 7-3-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-2-1 following a straight-up loss. On the flip side, New England is on “under” runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-1-1 against the AFC and 4-1 following a non-cover.

In head-to-head action between these teams, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 battles overall, but the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings in New England.

Finally, the over is a perfect 7-0 on Monday nights this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE:  DENVER

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GOLD SHEET

*Denver 23 - NEW ENGLAND 19—Matt Cassel now 2-2 as a starter, with the Pats averaging 18 ppg. No offense to Cassel, but that’s not exactly the same as the recording-setting 37 ppg juggernaut directed by Tom Brady LY.Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is arguably the brightest young QB in the league, with 12 TDs vs. 5 interceptions while running Mike Shanahan’s play-action offense.Yes, Denver has covered only 2 of its last 10 away. But Shanahan is 5-1 vs. the spread his last 6 meetings vs. Bill Bellichick. Pats still capable, but have much to prove. CABLE TV—ESPN(06-Denver +6' 17-7...SR: Denver 26-15)

Powersweep

Denver at NEW ENGLAND - This is a tough spot for NE as they are off a pair of West Coast games & faced
SD LW on SNF. DEN is well rested coming in off a pair of HG’s & are 15-4 ATS before their bye. Incl playoffs,
Shanahan is 5-2 SU & ATS vs Belichick’s Patriots who are 8-4 ATS on MNF. NE is playing to its strengths so
far & keeping teams away from an aging defense. DEN has a high octane offense but LW JAX QB Garrard
carved up the D. Execution will be key with 2 teams headed up by elite coaches here.


WINNING POINTS

*New England over Denver by 3
For the first time since 2005, the Patriots are hosting a Monday night game. They are doing it without Tom Brady making them vulnerable to just about any team. Denver’s high-octane passing attack can hurt a New England defense that is less-than-dominating and no longer has a shutdown cornerback. The Patriots have become much more ground-oriented under backup quarterback Matt Cassel. That could work in their favor versus a smallish Denver defensive front seven that surrendered 198 rushing yards to Larry Johnson in their previous road game. Note to totals players, Denver is 20-7 ‘over’ in its last 27 games. NEW ENGLAND 26-23.


Mark Lawrence

5* Best Bet New England over Denver by 14
Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6 ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0 if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about sizes things up,wouldn't you say?

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Dave Fobar

Denver (+3 even) over @ New England

My NFL tech database has gone thru some changes overthe past couple of seasons. Kevin O'Neill has touched on the fact that in the NFL passing has become much more important than running of late and I've mentioned it in passing here in this column. According to my numbers the game the increased emphasis on the air game started in 2002. The change was quite difficult to see at first in part because there are so few NFL regular season games. My own study has also shown that in the early part of the season the run game still holds some value from a tech perspective. But we are reaching the stage of the campaign where the air attack and its defense have become the dominant handicapping factor over the past 6 seasons. All this is a roundabout way of getting to my point: I've had to ditch quite a bit of stat-related tech over the past couple of seasons, and I hold very dear the few stat-based tech systems that have done well both in the distant NFL past and more recently. The best of my statbased systems has a play here against the Patriots. It derives from New England's poor statistical performance and the system's teams are just 131-218 ATS, including 4- 8 ATS so far this year. This system has performed at a 27% clip out of sample, and it works on Monday night games too with a 4-11 ATS mark and a larger losing cover margin. While the loss of Tom Brady has received most of national media's attention, the Pats' bigger problem has been the decline in its defense. They are giving up 7.5 yards per pass. The New England organization has been very good at discarding expensive players who no longer gave the team value for their dollars, but this past summer they made some curious moves. They certainly needed to makes some moves; at the end of last season the defense looked old and slow. One acquisition in particular struck me: the signing of cornerback Ferndando Bryant to a one-year contract. Bryant was let go by my hometown Lions. He was never really a good fit for Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2 scheme and his body suffered quite a bit of wear and tear from the run support the defense demands. So from a stylistic view the move made sense, but it wasn't like Bryant was doing a bang up job against opposing receivers either. Now Bryant didn't make it through training camp with New England, but if the Pats were desperate enough to give a Matt Millen castoff a shot they were in bigger trouble than I realized at the time.Still I thought Matt Cassel would do a credible job filling in for an injured Tom Brady. While Brady is a very good QB his numbers until last season were never really deserving of all the accolades that came his way. The Patriots are a team that prepares well for emergencies, and the general consensus was that New England was still a playoff-caliber team. After 142 pass attempts I'm not so sure. Cassel has put up a respectable 6.4 yards per pass but simply doesn't make the proper decisions quickly enough. He has been sacked 19 times so far, and many of them have been his fault. Bottom line, the Broncos are the better team right now and they probably deserve to be a small favorite in this game. New England is going to have to fall further before the betting public makes the proper adjustments.Denver by 3.

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SIXTH SENSE

Best Bet

NEW ENGLAND –3 Denver 47.5

NE was beaten badly last week at SD, 10-30 and getting out gained 7.3yppl to 4.4yppl, including allowing 11.3yps and throwing for just 4.6yps themselves. Denver was beaten at home by Jacksonville, 24-17 and also out gained 5.9yppl to 5.4yppl, including being out passed 7.3yps to 5.2yps. Denver was hurting at the receiver position last week but should get Eddie Royal back this week. They average 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has not been good, allowing 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They’ll face a NE team, whose stats are much worse than their record. NE averages just 5.3yps against 6.5yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. More amazing is their defense has been horrible, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. That is almost as bad as Denver but their offense is much worse. Denver qualifies in my turnover table, which is 381-244-18. NE qualifies in a negative situation based upon their poor defensive performance last week, which is 75-28-2. They also qualify in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 111-46-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Denver by five points and predict about 46 points. NE has out gained two teams this year, KC and SF, both of which are below average teams. They also defeated the Jets but were out gained from the line of scrimmage in that game. Much better offense, not quite as good a defense but not that far off from the NE defense, plenty of value and strong situations favoring them make this a solid chance to play Denver.

DENVER 27 NEW ENGLAND 17

3% DENVER +3

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Advantage sports

Broncos/Patriots Over 48

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ErockMoney

Denver/New England Under 48

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Masterbets

Denver/New England Under

The money has come in no uncertain terms for the Over tonight but it looks like general public money as opposed to the wiseguy action that we respect - so we're advising a contrarian position tonight and a small wager on the UNDER.

The number opened at 46 points, which was in line with our data for the game, but has subsequently moved all the way to 49 points at some books. Even if you're getting 48.5 points it is worth taking the Under, as we remain unconvinced that this game will generate as much action as the oddsmakers expect.

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Jimmy The Moose

Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins

The Penguins are 3-2-1 on the year with most of their games having been played at home. Tonight the Penguins travel to Boston to face a Bruins team they usually struggle against. The Penguins are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Bruins are 2-2 on the year with all 4 games being played on the road. Look for the Bruins to have more jump in their home opener tonight. The Penguins have lost 6 of their last 8 trips to Boston. The Bruins are 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings with Pittsburgh.

Play on: Boston

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LT Profits

Colorado Avalanche @ Los Angeles Kings Over 6

The Over is now 4-1 in Colorado Avalanche games this season thanks to a combination of good offense and suspect goaltending, and we expect more of the same when they visit the Los Angeles Kings tonight.

The Avalanche are averaging a potent 4.00 goals per game, and they have scored at least four goals in four of the five games this season. So why are they just 2-3 you might ask?

Well, that is because they are surrendering 3.80 goals per game, and their suspect defensive play is just part of the problem. The more disturbing factor is that goaltender Peter Budaj has just a 82.4 percent save percentage, and Andrew Raycroft has not been much better at 87.5 percent.

Now the Kings are not adverse to a wide open style of play themselves, as the have won their last two games by scores of 6-3 and 4-3. They have actually gotten some nice goaltending from Jason LaBarbera, but their defense permits far too many shots, and that plays right into the hands of the Colorado style.

We are not usually fans of playing Over 6 in a hockey game, but the fact that Avalanche games are averaging 7.80 goals so far and the Kings like to play fast and loose make this one playable.

Pick: Avalanche, Kings Over 6

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Sportsbettingstats

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Last week the Patriots were thumped by the Chargers, losing 30-10, while the Broncos lost a tough game to the Jaguars 24-17. This is an important AFC match up for both teams, as the Broncos want to put another game between them and the 2nd place Chargers, while the Patriots need a win to keep pace in the AFC East with the 5-1 Bills, who won yesterday. The Broncos are led by QB Jay Cutler (1694 yds 12 TD 5 INT) and his main targets are WR’s Brandon Marshall (43 rec 521 yds 3 TD) and Eddie Royal (30 rec 321 yds 2 TD). The Broncos rushing attack is led by the RB duo of Selvin Young (266 yds 1 TD) and Michael Pittman 228 yds 4 TD). The Patriots are led by QB Matt Cassel (910 yds 3 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are Wes Welker (36 rec 324) and Randy Moss (20 rec 300 2 TD). The Patriot Rushing attack is led by RB Sammy Morris (169 yds 3 TD).

Staff Pick:Both these teams are in the middle of the pack, but both are still in the playoff picture. The Broncos are being carried by QB Cutler, who is having a great year in guiding the Broncos offense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL and is averaging almost 280 passing yards per game. The Patriots are ranked 25th on offense and that has to do with Brady not being in the lineup. Cassel is good at managing games, but he cannot carry a team offensively. The Patriots are above .500 mainly because of their defense, which ranks a respectable 14th. The problem with the Broncos is their D, which ranks 3rd from the bottom in the NFL at 30th. They cannot stop the pass or the run. The key to this game may be the rushing game of the Patriots, as if they can keep Cutler off the field and eat up big chunks of time off the clock they will have a huge advantage. Cutler and the Broncos offense can put up big numbers and the Patriots cannot afford the game to get into a shootout with Cassel under center. Pittman has to have a good game, as he has moved up the depth chart and is now the main man in the Patriot backfield. If Denver can play any D they have a good shot to win, but they have not done that much this year. Look for the home field advantage to play a factor and for the Patriots to run the ball early and often to keep the potent Broncos offense on the sidelines. The Patriots are still a good team and will show it on Monday night with a win.

Patriots 27 Broncos 24

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Jim Feist

PIT Penguins / BOS Bruins
Take PIT Penguins

The Boston Bruins have opened the season with a 2-1-1 record and five points. The Bruins have the second worst penalty killing unit thus far coming in at just 70.6%. The Penguins are 3-2-1 this year with seven points. The Bruins play their first home game of the season, coming off a 4-2 win at Ottawa on Saturday. Marc Savard leads the team with five goals, four assists and nine points. The win over Ottawa was the team's best performance of the season. .5?All around, we had a solid game,.5? defenseman Dennis Wideman said. .5?Whenever someone made a mistake, someone else was always right there to back him up. As a team. I thought we stuck to our game plan and played really well..5? Manny Fernandez and Tim Thomas have split the first four games between the pipes with both putting up similar numbers. Fernandez has a 3.02 gaa while Thomas is 3.38. The Penguins are coming off a win at home against Toronto on Saturday night, 4-1. Evgeni Malkin leads the team with two goals and eight assists for 10 points. Center Sidney Crosby, arguably the best player in the league, is second with eight points. Crosby is seeing much more ice time this season, about 23:54 per game, about four minutes more than any of his previous seasons. "Just as long as you keep shifts short, not anything crazy," he said. "Sometimes, you get caught out there for a really long shift, and it can affect your next one or maybe the one after. But just consistently keeping shifts pretty normal length. I'd say that's about it," Crosby said about his extended time. Marc-Andre Fluery has played every game in goal and has a nice 2.42 gaa in six games. Anytime we can get the Penguins as a dog you have good value and we'll take it today on the road at Boston.

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Dave Cokin

DAL Stars / NY Rangers
Take NY Rangers

Goaltending is the name of the game in the NHL, and right now that's a big problem for the Dallas Stars. They've got injury issues on defense with Zubov down and veteran netminder Turco is struggling. The Rangers are off to a sizzling start and have to rate a commanding edge based on the current form. Pretty good sized number, but one I feel is worth laying with the Rangers.

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Brandon Lang

10 Dime Patriots - (If line is 3 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and only lay -3. Never get beat by the hook)

Free pick - Pats/Broncos Over

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Karl Garrett

Denver at NEW ENGLAND

If you aren't aware of it, ALL 7 of your Monday night contests this season have gone OVER the posted total.

7-for-7 OVER under the Monday night lights, and the G-Man is looking for that run to move to 8-for-8 after tonight's offensive shootout.

Denver comes into this one averaging over 27 points per game, while allowing just over 25 ppg this season.

New England is averaging just 18 points per game with Matt Cassel under center, but they should be able to score against this porous Denver defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots defense has been sporting some leaks, as they have allowed a massive 89 points over their last 3 games.

Until a Monday nighter actually goes UNDER the posted price, the G-Man will ride the OVER horse into the sunset.

Take the OVER.

4♦ OVER

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I posted their apology also here because I thought it was informative and
could be that someone will benefit from what they have to say.  wink
==========================================================


MADDUX FOOTBALL PICK:


#431 - NFL - 3 units  on Denver +3


2 quick things, obviously this weekend was not  profitable but losing weeks
do happen, I know most members are people that  understand this but there are a
select few that dont.  Since Saturday night  our inbox has been flooded with
some of the dumbest emails we have honestly  ever read. The best part is over
the last 2 weeks we are down  less than 10 units. 

We dont judge results over a day to day or week to week  basis but at seasons
end.  For the season we are winning over 63% of our  college and NFL wagers
as well as up close to 80 units of profit.  That is  the best start in our
companies history.  I know some of you got used to  the 6-1 and 5-0 Saturday and
Sunday's but those are far and few between.   We try to win every week but that
doesn't happen and you need to understand this  and start treating this as an
investment process.

Second thing is on the 5 unit picks.  For the last  time, these are not god
damn locks but picks that long term have a higher  probability of covering than
the normal 3 unit bets.  We would love to  win them all, but again this is
impossible.  For the season the 5 unit  picks are hitting at 67% which is pretty
sick and above our expectations.   Use proper money management and judge
results at seasons end and you will be  happy.  For the players that have
realistic expectations and already  understand this, sorry for the rant, and thanks
for your continued  support.



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Any sign of Indian Cowboy's POD for tonight? Thanks as always.  Keep up the great work.

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Euler wrote:


Any sign of Indian Cowboy's POD for tonight? Thanks as always.  Keep up the great work.

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: New England Patriots -3 (-110) (Play of the Day)

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Larry Ness

Prime Time Delight 1

NE Pats

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