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SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
AFC GAME OF WEEK
I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. As you know, the Raiders have been going through some turmoil of late. Hey, what else is new! Coach Kiffin was released two weeks ago and the team got crushed by the Saints last week. That's the made it so the majority of the betting public wants nothing to do with Oakland this week. Combine that with the betting public's love of Brett Favre (the "Favre factor") and it's pretty safe to say that the books will be getting fairly one-sided action on this one with everyone and their dog wanting to get down on New York. I typically see things a lot differently than most though and I have reason to believe that the Raiders are going to come ready to play this week. The fact that the Raiders got blown out last week wasn't a really big surprise. Not only was it a road game but it was an "early" game, which is often tough for a West Coast based team. Additionally, it came vs. an explosive New Orleans team which came in determined to make a point after letting one get away on national TV the previous week. I won with the 'under' in that game but in hindsight, the Saints were probably the stronger play. The Raiders are back home this week though. They've had some extra time to get over their latest coaching change and the fact that last week's loss was of the "embarrassing variety," will provide additional motivation here. I'll also note that I feel the Raiders are a much more talented team than most people believe and I believe that they match up well vs. the Jets. Yes, New York has won two in a row. However, both those games came at home. The first came vs. Arizona and the Jets were outgained 468-373 in yards and 33-23 in first downs but won because of numerous Cardinal turnovers. Last week's game came vs winless (0-6) Cincinnati and the Bengals were without Carson Palmer. In other words, the Jets' 2-game winning streak isn't quite as impressive as the media would have us believe. Note that the last time they played on the road, the Jets got blown out and gave up 48 points. In fact, dating back to January 2007, they're just 2-9 SU their last 11 road games and 0-9 SU in all cities outside of Miami. The Raiders played very well in their last game here, outplaying and leading a strong Chargers team (the same ones who blew out the Jets) almost the entire way. They lost in the end but still finished with an edge in both total yards and first downs. The Raiders' previous game was a 1-point loss vs. a Buffalo team that is currently ahead of the Jets and on top of the AFC East standings. The Raiders should have won that won too. Before that, they blew out the Chiefs. In other words, they've actually played very well in three of their last four games and they had an "excuse" for the other one. Look for the Raiders to bounce back with a huge effort in Cable's second game as interim coach as the Jets fall to 1-4 ATS the last five times they were coming off two or more consecutive wins. *AFC GOW
SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF MONTH
I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. I respect the Bucs and they've admittedly played well here at home this season. That being said, I don't feel that they should be laying double-digits against a desperate Seattle team which they have never been able to be beat here. Yes, Seattle will be without Hasselbeck again this week. However, they're expected to have Seneca Wallace in at QB which, in my opinion, will be a big upgrade over Charlie Frye. As of Friday, Holmgren had this to say of Wallace: "It's going to be his ballgame - unless something happens in the next two days." Wallace is small in stature and he's not all that highly regarded. However, I've watched him closely over his career. He's agile, competitive and fully capable of making plays in this league. While the Bucs have been great at covering small spreads, they're unaccustomed to laying this many points. In fact, they've only been favored by greater than eight points 16 times over the past 16 years and this is their first time in that role this season. Note that they went a money-burning 6-10 ATS in those previous games. The Bucs haven't scored more than 30 points in a game this season and they're averaging 23.5 points per game which is only one point more than the league average of 22.5. Even with a strong defense, that makes covering double-digits difficult. Off a huge divisional win and with a big showdown vs. high profile Dallas on deck, it may be easy for the Bucs to overlook the "lowly" Hawks here. That will prove to be a mistake though as Seattle hasn't given up on the season yet. Keep in mind that the Seahawks have been the champions of the NFC West every year in recent memory and that only Arizona, currently 4-2, has a winning record in their division. The Seahawks are 7-1 all-time vs. the Bucs, including 4-0 here at Tampa. They're also 8-1 ATS as underdogs of greater than eight points since 1997. Look for Wallace to be better than most are expecting and for the Seahawks to come away with at least another cover. *Sunday Night GOM
TOTAL OF WEEK
I'm playing on the Colts and Packers UNDER the total. When most people think of the Colts, they picture Peyton Manning and a team that scores a lot of points but has a suspect defense. That was the case for a long time and the perception still lingers. However, the Colts' defense has been significantly better for some time now. Yes, the offense is still dangerous offensively and capable of striking quickly. However, Manning and co. are also fully capable of grinding out victories with long methodical drives that chew up the clock. Note that just because they have some injuries at running back doesn't mean that they will abandon the run. They've still got Dominic Rhodes and Dungy is well aware of the importance of the ground game. Note that they ran the ball 30 times against the Ravens last week, which is more than the league average of 27.3. Additionally, note that the Colts limited the Ravens to a mere three points and just 260 yards in that game. Indianapolis defensive captain Gary Brackett had this to say: "The reason it's happened is guys are playing faster. I like to say you have to step with a purpose out there and everyone started buying into that last week." That game stayed below the number and brought the UNDER to 10-7 in the Colts' last 17 games, dating back the past 12 months. Aaron Rodgers has done a fine job in his first year as Green Bay's starting QB so far. He's playing hurt though and the Packers are still only averaging 21.3 points per game at home. Like the Colts, the Packers are coming off one of their better defensive performances. They went on the road and limited Seattle to just 17 points, 13 first downs and 177 yards. The Packers' secondary is more than capable of slowing down (not stopping) the Colts' aerial attack. The Packers currently ranking seventh in the league in pass defense (178.8 ypg) and cornerback Charles Woodson leads the NFC in interceptions. Note that the Packers' secondary is holding opposing quarterbacks to a 62.3 passer rating. That's the third best mark in the NFL. The Packers have seen the UNDER go 3-0 the last three times they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49 points and 9-3 their last 12 in that situation. I feel that this number is generous and I look for this afternoon's game to also prove lower-scoring than expected. *total of the week
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Baltimore (+3) over Miami (Power Play)
(AFC Power Play of the Year)
• 0-7 ATS coming off a loss by 6 points or less
• 3-10 ATS in home games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
• 1-4 SU vs. AFC North Opponents over the last 5 games
• Averaging only 15 ppg on offense at home this season
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Tennessee –9 KANSAS CITY 35
Both teams come off their bye week. Tennessee won at Baltimore prior to their bye week while KC was destroyed at Carolina. Tennessee could be without a couple of their receivers and KC will be without Larry Johnson for this week. Tennessee averages 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl on offense, while allowing just 4.2yppl against 4.7yppl. KC averages just 3.8yps against 6.5yps and 4.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Tennessee by 10 points and predict 33 points. Not interested in laying points on the road with a below average offense but also not interested in taking a home dog, which is below average on both, offense and defense. TENNESSEE 23 KANSAS CITY 10
BUFFALO PK San Diego 44.5
Very interesting game this week. Buffalo is off their bye week after getting blown out at Arizona the week before their bye. Buffalo actually out gained Arizona 6.2yppl to 4.9yppl in that game. They were –4 in turnovers. SD dominated NE last week in their 30-10 win. The Chargers out gained NE 7.3yppl to 4.4yppl, including 11.3yps to 4.6yps for NE. SD averages 8.3yps against 6.5yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense is improving and they now allow 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl, making them average. Buffalo averages just 5.3yppl against 5.8yppl and allows 4.8yppl against 4.9yppl. Buffalo is coming off their bye week and should be prepared. The Bills qualify in a scheduling situation, which is 97-48-4 and they qualify in my turnover table, which is 381-244-18. SD qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 65-25-2. Numbers favor SD by 1.5 points and predict about 51 points. I’d like to take Buffalo in this spot but I’m just not getting enough line value to make a play on them. They aren’t the better team although the situations favor them. I would need at least three points and would feel much better with about four points. Instead I will just lean their way. BUFFALO 27 SAN DIEGO 24
Pittsburgh –9.5 CINCINNATI 34.5
Steelers come off their bye week after defeating Jacksonville on the road the week before. Willie Parker is still out for Pittsburgh. Cincinnati really struggled on offense last week at the Jets. They averaged just 2.0ypr, 3.4yps and 2.9yppl. The defense held their own, as they have done this year, allowing the Jets just 4.1yppl, including just 4.7yps. Cincinnati is really struggling on offense and I don’t see it getting any better this week against a good Pittsburgh defense and with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Cincinnati averages just 3.1ypr against 3.6ypr, 4.3yps against 5.6yps and 3.9yppl against 4.8yppl. They could only muster 3.9yppl at home with Fitzpatrick against Cleveland. I don’t see them doing much in this game. The Bengal’s defense is allowing just 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl so they have played well on defense. The Steelers offense is also struggling, gaining just 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl but their defense is playing extremely well, allowing just 2.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 4.5yps against 5.9yps and 3.8yppl against 5.0yppl. Cincinnati does qualify in a winless situation, which went 2-1 last week and is now 78-31-6. Pittsburgh has won six straight here and eight of nine so they match up very well against Cincinnati. They are obviously laying a bunch of points here and not all their wins here would have covered this number so the line balances out some of their dominance against Cincinnati. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 7.5 points and predict about 34 points. I thought about making Cincinnati a Best Bet here but I just don’t like the match up with Fitzpatrick against the solid Steelers defense. The anemic Cincinnati offense will probably provide some easy scores for Pittsburgh, which will only stress the Cincinnati offense. I’ll trust the numbers and situation to lean their way but not enough to make them a play. PITTSBURGH 21 CINCINNATI 13
MIAMI –3 Baltimore 36.5
Baltimore let me down last week and I was worried about the play of Flacco against Manning but I expected the Ravens defense to play a little better than they did. Baltimore allowed Indy to throw for 8.6yps and 5.6yppl overall. They gained just 2.7ypr against a poor Indy rush defense, 5.0yps and 4.3yppl. Miami lost a heartbreaker at Houston on the last play of the game. The Dolphins gained 7.3yppl to 6.9yppl for Houston. Baltimore averages just 4.2yppl against 4.8yppl. They allow just 4.0yppl against 4.6yppl. Miami have been a huge surprise this year. They average 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. They are allowing 7.2yps against 6.7yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl but I don’t see Baltimore exposing them too much this week. Baltimore qualifies in my turnover table, which is 381-244-18. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 279-191-20. Numbers favor Miami by 5.5 points and predict about 31 points. Tough game for me to call. Not in favor of laying points against a stout defense like Baltimore but also not in favor of taking this team on the road with their anemic offense. I will trust the numbers and lean that way. MIAMI 17 BALTIMORE 13
Dallas NL St. Louis
No line yet on this game and it appears Tony Romo might play in this game. This line would be around 10 – 12 points with Romo and was going to be around 7 points without Romo. I’m guessing if he plays the line will settle around 10.5 points. Quite honestly I would love to not see him play, which would provide us with a favorable line and then I would consider possibly playing the Cowboys in this game. Orlando Pace won’t play for the Rams. Dallas lost at Arizona last week but they gained 5.8yppl to 5.5yppl for Arizona. The Rams won at Washington but did so mostly because of turnovers. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage, getting out gained by Washington 5.8ypr to 2.9ypr, 6.2yps to 4.4yps and 6.0yppl to 3.7yppl. Dallas should be able to move the ball no matter who is playing quarterback. Dallas averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.9yps against 5.9yps and 6.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. The Rams average just 4.8yps against 5.8yps and 4.3yppl against 5.0yppl. They also allow 7.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.3yppl against 5.5yppl. Dallas will qualify in a fundamental rushing situation if the line is seven or less, which is 652-526-42, including a subset, which is 523-399-30. Numbers favor Dallas by 12.5 points with Romo and about 9.0 points without Romo. Numbers predict about 52 points as well. If this line comes in at seven or less I will consider Dallas a Best Bet. I will update on Sunday morning if the line is low enough. DALLAS 31 ST LOUIS 14
CHICAGO –3 Minnesota 38
I passed on Atlanta last week against the Bears because I was worried about the Bears defense controlling a below average Atlanta pass offense and felt Chicago would be able to move the ball against a below average Atlanta defense. At the end of the day, Chicago gained 5.4yppl, which is about where I could have expected them to end up. I didn’t expect Chicago to allow Atlanta to pass for 10.0yps and 6.3yppl overall. They shut down the Falcons rush game at just 2.5ypr but allowed big plays through the air. Minnesota needed a very late field goal to defeat the Lions 12-10 but the Vikings dominated the game from the line of scrimmage, 5.7yppl to 4.2yppl, including throwing the ball for 6.8yps. A closer look, however, shows the Vikings totaled 86 yards on one pass play to Bernard Berrian. If you remove that one play, Minnesota averaged just 4.5yppl against a bad Lions defense. Chicago averages 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl on offense making them just average, at best. They allow 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl and I would expect them to be very stout again this week on defense. Minnesota averages just 4.2ypr against 4.5ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. The strength is supposed to be their rushing game but that has been below average this year and the offense is below average overall. They allow just 3.0ypr against 3.6ypr, 6.0yps against 6.6yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Their defense is similar to the Bears defense. The offense is a little weaker than the Bears offense but has a better big play guy on offense. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Chicago by nine points and predict about 39 points scored. Chicago lost 31-34 here last year but that game featured some big plays that added to the scoring. Prior to that game, Minnesota had won the previous six contests here and none of those games totaled more than 38 points. I’ll lean with Chicago because of the line value but it’s a weak lean. CHICAGO 21 MINNESOTA 16
CAROLINA –3 New Orleans 44.5
The Saints destroyed Oakland last week, 34-3. They out gained Oakland 6.9yppl to 3.8yppl, including 10.3yps to 3.8yps. NO lost the week before to Minnesota but they out played the Vikings in that game but turnovers did them in. Carolina was blasted at TB, 27-3, getting out gained 5.5yppl to 4.8yppl, including allowing TB to throw for 8.7yps. The Saints offense averages just 3.3ypr against 3.9ypr but they pass for 8.5yps against 6.4yps and 6.4yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They also should get back Shockey and Colston this week. The defense has been the surprise for NO this year. They are allowing just 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. If this defense can just be average that is a big boost for a team with such a good offense. Carolina has struggled to rush the ball, gaining just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr but they do average 6.7yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense has been solid, allowing just 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl and has been very good against both, the run and the pass. Saints qualify in a scheduling situation, which is 65-25-2. Numbers favor Carolina by three points before accounting for the situation and predict about 43 points. Saints have won six of eight played here and only one of those games resulted in a loss by more than three points. Saints have been very competitive in their games this year with their losses by just 2, 3 and 5 points. Carolina has won just one game by more than three points and has a long history of not covering as a favorite under John Fox because of their style of play. Value, situation and past history make NO worth taking a shot. NEW ORLEANS 24 CAROLINA 20
NY GIANTS –10.5 San Francisco 46.5
Giants were surprised by the Browns last week and did themselves no favors by turning the ball over three times as well. They were out gained by Cleveland 7.7yppl to 6.9yppl. SF fell behind against Philly but managed to come back and grab a nine point lead before giving it all and then some back to Philly, who played without Westbrook. SF was out gained 6.7yppl to 5.1yppl. The 49ers are struggling to throw the ball and protect J.T. O’Sullivan. They average just 6.0yps against 6.6yps and 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl overall. The defense has played well, allowing just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. The Giants have been very good on offense, gaining 6.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 6.6yppl against 5.5yppl overall. They are allowing 4.9yppl against 4.6yppl, including 5.5yps against 5.0yps. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by 13.5 points and predict about 50 points. Giants figure to be focused following their upset loss last week. I’ll lean with the numbers and the Giants. NY GIANTS 31 SAN FRANCISCO 20
HOUSTON –9.5 Detroit 46.5
Hard to say what we’ll get with Detroit this week after losing a heartbreaker at Minnesota last week and having traded Roy Williams to the Cowboys this past week. Detroit was out gained in that game 5.7yppl to 4.2yppl but remove an 86 yard touchdown pass and they were only out gained 4.5yppl to 4.2yppl. This week they get a Houston team who finally got their first win on the last play of the game. They were out gained by Miami 7.3yppl to 6.9yppl. The Lions will continue to go with Dan Orlovsky at quarterback. The Lions average just 4.6yps against 5.9yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They allow a disgusting 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.4yps against 6.2yps and 6.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Houston’s offense is getting better each week. They average 4.4ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.3yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 4.9yppl. The defense hasn’t been much better than the Lions. They allow 4.5ypr against 3.8ypr, 7.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Houston by seven points and predict about 60 points. I would love to play the over in this game but Detroit’s offense just isn’t good enough to rely on, especially after the Williams trade and with Orlovsky at the helm. HOUSTON 34 DETROIT 24
NY Jets –3 OAKLAND 41
Oakland looked bad last week at NO, getting out scored 34-3 and out gained 6.9yppl to 3.8yppl, including passing for just 3.8ypr and allowing NO 10.3yps. The Jets struggled through a victory against Cincinnati, winning by 12 and out gaining the Bengal’s 4.1yppl to 2.9yppl. They allowed just 2.9yppl but that was against Ryan Fitzpatrick, which doesn’t give us much to go on. Gaining 4.1yppl isn’t great either. The Cincinnati defense has been better than expected but they should be gaining more than that. The Jets average just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been good, allowing 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. Oakland has struggled on offense, gaining just 5.3yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They have played good defense, allowing just 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl. Oakland qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 279-191-20. Numbers favor the Jets by 3.5 points before accounting for the situation and predict about 46 points. Oakland has played two teams with below average offenses this year, both on the road, and won one game and lost the other game by one point when Buffalo came back late after trailing by nine points. Oakland’s offense isn’t very good although it should be better at home. They struggle when the other teams offense performs, which stresses the Oakland offense and forces mistakes. I’ll take the points at home with the solid situation and this line may go to 3.5 points before Sunday as well. OAKLAND 23 NY JETS 20
WASHINGTON –7.5 Cleveland 42
Washington lost at home to the Rams last week. Although they lost the game, they dominated from the line of scrimmage, out gaining the Rams 6.0yppl to 3.7yppl, including 5.8ypr to 2.9ypr and 6.2yps to 4.4yps. Three key Washington fumbles led to either points for the Rams or keeping the Redskins from scoring points in Rams territory. Cleveland surprised the Giants by out gaining them 7.7yppl to 6.9yppl in their 35-14 win over the Giants. Cleveland averages 4.6yppl against 4.6yppl but is allowing 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Washington averages 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Their defense has been solid, allowing just 5.8yps against 7.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.9yppl. Washington qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation if the line is seven or less, which is 652-526-42, including a subset, which is 523-399-30. Numbers favor Washington by seven points and predict just 28 points. Washington hasn’t defeated anybody by more than seven points this year and the situation wouldn’t qualify if they are favored by more than seven points. If you can get this line at seven or less points, including buying it for –120 or less, I would make it a Best Bet. I will update this on Sunday morning as to if it will count as an official Best Bet. WASHINGTON 23 CLEVELAND 10
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Indianapolis –1.5 GREEN BAY 47
While I have had good success betting on or against GB this year, I made a mistake by going against them last week. Seattle just didn’t have a chance with Charlie Frye at quarterback against a Packers offense that was better and a Packers defense that was better. GB out gained Seattle 4.4yppl to 3.6yppl, including throwing for 6.3yps. They only ran for 2.9ypr and their rushing game needs to get better. Indy destroyed Baltimore last week but that win didn’t tell us much seeing Baltimore can’t move the ball, especially on the road and when they are so far behind. Indy out gained Baltimore 5.6yppl to 4.3yppl, including passing for 8.6yps. This should be a very good game. GB averages just 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr but 6.7yps against 6.5yps and it appears Aaron Rodgers is much healthier this week than he has been the last few weeks. Overall, GB averages 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense, which has lost Al Harris (may return in a few weeks) and Cullen Jenkins and a few other starters for a start here and there, is still allowing just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl, including 5.3yps against 5.8yps. They will face an Indy offense averaging just 3.3ypr against 3.7ypr but 6.5yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. The Colts defense allows 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Green Bay qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 38-10-1 and a scheduling situation, which is 65-25-2. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 50 points. The Packers offense is probably somewhere between Jacksonville and Houston, in terms of who Indy has played this year. Indy has given up an average of 25 points per game to those teams. Indy scored 23 points against Jacksonville, which probably is the closest defense to GB that Indy has faced. GB has allowed 27 points to Atlanta and Dallas, which are the two best offenses they have faced this year. The Packers have scored 24 and 27 against Atlanta and Seattle, which are probably closest to what Indy brings on defense. That puts these two at about 25-25, which matches my total. The total is a little too high for my liking to play over, especially knowing GB probably wants to control the ball as much as possible by running it if they can. GB is in a good spot, at home, as a dog, with solid situations in their favor and playing against a below average defense and a team that doesn’t run the ball well, which is GB’s weakness. GREEN BAY 30 INDIANAPOLIS 23
TAMPA BAY –10.5 Seattle 38
TB rolled over Carolina last week, 27-3. They out gained the Panthers 5.5yppl to 4.8yppl, including throwing for 8.7yps. Seattle lost at home to GB, 17-27 and was out gained 4.4yppl to 3.6yppl, including just 2.5yps. I would think their passing game should get better this week because Senaca Wallace is starting instead of Charlie Frye but they are also on the road against a very good TB defense, so it might not get better for Mike Holmgren. Seattle averages just 4.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. TB averages just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl, although 4.9yps against 4.4yps and their passing game, which has been sub par averaging just 5.4yps against 5.9yps, is getting better with Jeff Garcia back. The defense allows just 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.2yps against 7.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.7yppl. Seattle qualifies in my turnover table, which is 381-244-18. Numbers favor TB by 8.5 points and predict about 40 points. I have a hard time backing Seattle in this game even with the system favoring them. TAMPA BAY 27 SEATTLE 13
NEW ENGLAND –3 Denver 47.5
NE was beaten badly last week at SD, 10-30 and getting out gained 7.3yppl to 4.4yppl, including allowing 11.3yps and throwing for just 4.6yps themselves. Denver was beaten at home by Jacksonville, 24-17 and also out gained 5.9yppl to 5.4yppl, including being out passed 7.3yps to 5.2yps. Denver was hurting at the receiver position last week but should get Eddie Royal back this week. They average 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has not been good, allowing 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They’ll face a NE team, whose stats are much worse than their record. NE averages just 5.3yps against 6.5yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. More amazing is their defense has been horrible, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. That is almost as bad as Denver but their offense is much worse. Denver qualifies in my turnover table, which is 381-244-18. NE qualifies in a negative situation based upon their poor defensive performance last week, which is 75-28-2. They also qualify in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 111-46-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Denver by five points and predict about 46 points. NE has out gained two teams this year, KC and SF, both of which are below average teams. They also defeated the Jets but were out gained from the line of scrimmage in that game. Much better offense, not quite as good a defense but not that far off from the NE defense, plenty of value and strong situations favoring them make this a solid chance to play Denver. DENVER 27 NEW ENGLAND 17
YTD 23-9-1 +39.30%
3% NEW ORLEANS +3
3% OAKLAND +3
3% GREEN BAY +1.5
3% DENVER +3
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4-Star Buffalo Bills (-1) over San Diego Chargers
We simply couldn’t ask for a better spot to grab Buffalo and fade the Chargers. The 4-1 Bills have had two full weeks to get ready for this AFC clash. Buffalo is also coming off their first loss in Arizona two weeks ago, thus this is a very important game at home for them to get back in the winning column. They are fresh, rested and ready to go. San Diego, on the other hand, will be “jet-lagged” again for the third time in four weeks. The Chargers stretch has been brutal. They started this string of games @ Oakland, then traveled cross-country to Miami, they were home last week in a HUGE revenge game vs. New England and now they are off to the east again to visit Buffalo. Now that’s a tough stretch of games! Not only that, this San Diego team heads across the ocean to London to play New Orleans next week which has to be a distraction. As we mentioned, this will be San Diego’s second trip to the east coast in three weeks after jetting to Miami and losing 17-10 two weeks ago. It’s ALWAYS tough for teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast to play the 1:00 PM Eastern game. One has to remember, it’s really “10:00 AM” on their body clocks. Not only that, getting up at 7:00 AM EST to start their preparation for the game is really like getting up at 4:00 AM Pacific time. Teams simply struggle in that situation. In fact, West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time zone to play an early game are 0-6 straight up (1-5 ATS) this year. Going back even further, the last 65 times a team from the west coast (this includes San Diego, Oakland, Seattle, Arizona & San Francisco) has traveled to the eastern time zone to play a 1:00 PM game, they are just 15-50 straight up! It’s definitely not an ideal situation, especially here with the Chargers having to do it in two of the last three weeks. After that this team is off to London to play the Saints. That’s right, England! What a tough way to end an enormously hard stretch of road games. So far Norv Turner’s team is just 1-2 SU on the road. They lost at Denver and at Miami. Their only win came in Oakland and that performance was nothing to write home about. They trailed 15-0 at halftime in that game and rallied for a deceiving 28-18 which included a half point cover. The Charger offense had just 295 total yards in that game and 41 of those came on a LaDanian Tomlinson TD run while he was attempting to run out the clock with just 1:00 remaining in the game. This offense that many so called experts proclaim among the best in the league had just 202 total yards @ Miami in their loss a week later. Those in the “know” around the NFL have said LT is not the runner he was a year ago. He is not nearly as explosive this year. WR Chris Chambers has a bad hamstring which will limit him or keep him out here. That puts a pile of pressure on QB Philip Rivers to carry most of the load which is tough on the road vs. quality opponents. They can’t expect their defense to “keep them in games” as they rank near the bottom of the NFL in overall defense along with pass defense. The Bills get QB Trent Edwards back from a concussion after he was knocked out of the Arizona game early. Edwards has had a very solid year completing almost 67% of his passes. He has a solid rushing attack behind him with Marshawn Lynch who has tallied 330 yards on the season. Buffalo also has solid special teams play and their defense is ranked #9 in the NFL in yards allowed and #8 vs. the pass. This all adds up, along with the scheduling situation, to a great pick with Buffalo at home in an even game. Bills win this one vs. a road weary Charger team.
7-STAR NFL Game of the Year - Houston Texans (-9) over Detroit Lions
The Houston Texans have started the season 1-4, but they may be one of the top 10 teams in the NFL. They started the season with three road games, @Pittsburgh, @Tennessee, and @Jacksonville, teams with a combined 12-4 record after week 6. The Texans quietly have had one of the best offenses in the NFL this season, ranking 5th in total offense (362 yards per game), and 7th in passing yards (248 yards per game). Houston won a big game last week in the final seconds vs. Miami and we see them continuing to build momentum into this week, and getting a big win against the cellar dwelling Detroit Lions is just what the doctor ordered. The Lions nightmare season continues, leading by one point with less than a minute left in the game, the Lions committed a pass interference penalty against the Vikings, and Minnesota kicked the game-winning 26 yard field goal with 9 seconds on the clock. That loss puts the Lions at 0-5 for the year, ranking last, or close to last, in every offensive and defensive category. Detroit hasn’t had consistent quarterback play all year long despite having two of the most talented receivers in Roy Williams (who now is in Dallas with the Cowboys) and Calvin Johnson; they also have had little production running the ball to compliment their passing woes. The Texans’ are hoping that quarterback Matt Shaub has finally turned the corner from being an average quarterback, to being on of the NFL’s premier passers. In his last two games Shaub threw for 307 yards and 379 yards, with 4 touchdowns. The Lions are giving up an average of 31.8 point per game second to last in the NFL having allowed 31+ points in every game but one. Now Detroit is facing a Houston team that is 5th in the league in total offense and coming off three straight games of scoring 27, 27 and 29 points. The Lions are just 2-11 ATS their last 13 away and they struggle again this Sunday. Look for Houston, who is coming off their first win, to build off that this week when Detroit comes to town. Houston 38- Detroit 10.
3-Star Under the total, NY Jets vs. Oakland
Two pedestrian offenses vs. two fairly solid defenses add up to an under play in this game. While the Jets overall scoring numbers look impressive at 28 PPG, they are very deceiving. That’s because they put up 56 points a few weeks ago vs. Arizona who was a turnover machine on that day. The Cards gave the ball away SEVEN times in that game allowing New York to light up the scoreboard. The Jets only had 383 yards in that game which means they put up one point for every 6.8 yards which is a ridiculous rate of return. Last week they put up 26 points on Cincinnati, however the Jets only had 252 total yards in that game. This team averages just 296 yards per game on offense which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. However, they are 6th in points scored in the league which means they are doing it with smoke and mirrors. This is the game where they come back to earth and their points are more in line with their yardage gained. The Raiders offense is one slot down from the Jets at #24 in the league (293 YPG). Their 16 PPG average is much more in line with a team that averages less than 300 YPG. Oakland has topped 20 points just twice in six games and they are coming off a game where they scored just one field goal against a New Orleans defense that was near the bottom of the NFL in many categories. QB Jamarcus Russell had completed just 50% of his passes on the year so Oakland has had to rely on their running game. Their rushing attack is 4th in the NFL and keeping it on the ground obviously eats up clock. Expect more of the same on Sunday. Both defenses are solid. The Jets give up just 306 YPG so don’t expect a pedestrian Oakland offense to do much in this game. They allowed just 14 points last week vs. Cincy and 7 of those came on a fumble returned for a TD. The Raiders defensive numbers don’t look great, but they are a solid stop unit. The problem is they faced off against two of the top offenses in the NFL their last two games (San Diego & New Orleans). They will have a much easier time slowing down the Jets here. We’ll call for this one to stay well under this posted number.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
San Diego / Buffalo
Play:3* Buffalo -1
Buffalo is 11-3 ATS last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3. San Diego is allowing 24.7 points per game on the road this year. Buffalo is scoring 25.2 points per game overall and 29 points per game at home this year while allowing only 16.5 points per game at home this season where they are 2-0 SU. Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Bills are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games on turf. Bills are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Bills are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. We'll play Buffalo for 3 units today!
Seattle / Tampa Bay
Play:5* Seattle +10 1/2
Seattle is 7-1 last 8 meetings overall with Tampa Bay. Mike Holmgren is 15-4 SU vs Tampa Bay in his coaching career. Seattle is 3-0 SU and ATS at Tampa Bay since 1992. Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Holmgren will whip up a game plan for tonight that may surprise people with the SU victory. We'll play Seattle for 5 units tonight!
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
MADDUX SPORTS - BASEBALL
#928 - MLB - 3 units on Tampa Bay +120
MADDUX SPORTS - NFL
#410 - NFL - 3 units on Cincinnati +9.5 (WAIT AND SEE IF +10 POPS UP)
#411 - NFL - 3 units on Baltimore +3
#417 - NFL - 3 units on New Orleans +3
#424 - NFL - 3 units on Oakland +3
#426 - NFL - 4 units on Washington -7 (Buy the 1/2 point)
Today's Free Pick is Dallas -7
2 Added plays for the Sunday card. Was hoping Cincinnati
would go to +10 by tonight but it hasn't happened at this time.
Lets wait and see if it does go to +10. If it doesn't we still like
them at +7.5 or higher, but it is worth taking the chance to wait
and see if +10 pops up. We will grade this pick on that basis.
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