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SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
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DALLAS (4-2) Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams ST LOUIS (1-4)
The Dallas Cowboys (4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS) have certainly had one of the more controversial and chaotic work weeks for an NFL team in recent memory. The amount of attention generated by the "circus" that is the Dallas Cowboys these days was to say the least phenomenal. The starting point was the Cowboys very hard to swallow overtime loss in Arizona on Sunday. This by itself would have been enough to rattle most Cowboy fans. Then on Monday it was announced that superstar starting quarterback Tony Romo had broken his pinkie finger in that loss and would be out a month. Then Tuesday, just before the trade deadline, the Cowboys made a controversial trade for Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy Williams. Finally, it was announced that cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones was being suspended for his off-field exploits once again. Wow! Even with all that happening, the circus continues as the Cowboys now say that Romo may actually start something I personally do not think will happen. If Tony Romo does start, the line will most likely be adjusted out-of-whack and at that point this will become a "no play". Oh yeah, did I forget to mention their opponent? The Cowboys are playing the St. Louis Rams (1-4 SU & 2-4 ATS) this Sunday. The Rams are fresh off their surprising upset of the Redskins, a game that Washington gift-wrapped and handed to them.
Let's delve into that Rams win just a bit. Going into that game St. Louis had shown absolutely no signs of life, and were actually considered one of the 2 or 3 worst teams in the NFL. They had not even stayed within 14 points of any of their first 4 opponents. Two (2) blowout losses to the Eagles and Giants were followed up by an embarrassing 37-13 loss at the hands of the injury riddled Seahawks. That win by the way is Seattle's only win to date. Against the Redskins the Rams actually did very little of their own to generate that win. They were out-first downed 22-8. They were out gained 368-200, which included an 181-76 yard deficit on the ground. None of these numbers suggests to me that the Rams should have even stayed with 14 points in this game. Then we look at the 3-1 turnover advantage the Rams held in the game and it becomes a bit more plausible. The Rams offense did not even score an offensive touchdown in that game! Remarkable! Their only foray into the end zone came in the form of a 75 yard fumble return. Of their 4 field goal drives, 2 of them they actually lost yards on! That's right. After getting handed the ball at the 29 and 7 yard lines, they actually went backwards before kicking their field goals! I have laboriously gone over all these tidbits from the Redskins game to prove only one point, the Rams were every bit as bad in that game offensively as they have been all year. In fact, had they not been handed phenomenal field position all day long, they may have actually produced 6 points offensively.
The combination of the Redskins win and the media circus in Dallas does one thing, it creates tremendous line value for us in this game. Had Dallas somehow found a way to win last week and had the Rams not been handed a gift win, the line would be around 13 to 14 points in this game. I also don't mind a bit that Romo will not be the quarterback. Brad Johnson is a veteran QB who owns a Super Bowl ring. He may actually have a calming effect on this team. Tony Romo for all his flash and ability is careless with the football. Brad Johnson needs only guide the ship and limit mistakes for Dallas to win this game easily. My evidence from that win last week, does nothing but convince me further that the Rams are just an awful team that did nothing of their own to earn that win. The Dallas Cowboys are an almost automatic "public favorite" in betting circles. It is very rare that the books do not see 70+% of the action on Dallas games coming in on the Cowboys. Amid the swirl of controversy and turmoil this week, the bettors are staying away from Dallas like the plague. Not only are just 57% of the wagers coming in on the Cowboys, it is also the game on the board receiving the least action! This confirms to me everything I have already believed to be true. When public perception is swayed so far away from reality, that they start doubting their favorite teams to bet on, that is exactly when you MUST bet on them! Take the Cowboys, they should win by 3 touchdowns Sunday.
Verdict: Dallas 28, St. Louis 7
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON DALLAS -7
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TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NY GIANTS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
CHIEFS / TITANS: In Poker terms, I would classify this game as 7-card stud HIGH / LOW. You have an undefeated team (HIGH) coming in with the 5-0 Titans. And a 1-4 home team (LOW) in the Chiefs. This game also has one of the lowest OU lines of the week (around 35 points). With BOTH teams coming in with a week of rest, well be slamming the OVER. Reason #1 is BECAUSE of that ?double-rest? angle. In the last 7 years, NFL games have gone 12-4 O/U when BOTH teams come in off thier BYE week. Home DOGS have gone 5-1 O/U... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last 3 seasons. That week of rest came at the right time for the Chiefs. In their last game, they lost to the Carolina Panthers by a score of 34-0. The shutout loss has them active this week in a very hot current System: NFL teams are a PERFECT 7-0-1 O/U in the last 4 years off a SHUTOUT in which they lost by a score of 28-0 or higher. On the flip side, we have the 5-0 Titans. And if it?s game six, the OVER is the call for these UNDEFEATEDS. Since 2000, GAME SIX teams with a perfect 5-0 SU record are 11-2 O/U... and a PERFECT 10-0 O/U vs any non-div opp. Not only are they 5-0 SU, but theyve reeled off 5 straight ATS wins as well to start the season. In the last 20 years, OCTOBER non-div road favs who are off 5 SUATS wins in a row are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. Individual team trends seal the deal: The TITANS are 12-3 O/U as favs w/ rest, 5-0 O/U as non-div RFs 4 > pts and 7-1 O/U bef Monday. CHIEFS are 4-0 O/U at home w/ rest, 5-1 O/U off a SU L 21 > pts, and 6-0 O/U in Gm 6.
GIANTS / 49ERS: The Giants return home off their shocking Monday night road favorite loss to the Brownies. Teams that lost their first game of the season on the road usually come back with high-scoring results. 9-1 O/U for GAME SIX teams who lost their FIRST game of the year on the road (GIANTS). NFC teams on a short week of practice off a Monday non-conf road game have been solid OVER plays in the last few years. 4-0 O/U in the last 4 years for all NFC teams off a Monday night game against an AFC opponent. Meanwhile, we have the Niners making the l-o-n-g trek east from their Bay area home... and you know what THAT means. TIME ZONE System. This System has continued to generate a profit this year, so lets do it again: NFL Western time zone teams have gone 21-7 O/U in the last 4 years in Game 7 or less on the road versus an Eastern time zone team. The absolute BEST situations for these teams are 20-5 O/U for all UNDERDOGS... and 9-1 O/U for big dogs of > 7 points (like the NINERS). After winning 2 of their first 3 games, the wheels have come off for San Francisco. Theyve dropped 3 games in a row (SU and ATS) by 9 or more points. That?s actually a good sign for OVER players. 9-1 O/U since 200 for OCTOBER road teams who are playing off 3+ SU and ATS losses in a row. Most applicable team trends also indicate were on the right side. The NINERS are 10-1 O/U vs NFC East, 5-1 O/U vs an opp off Monday, and 5-1 O/U off BB HG. The GIANTS are 4-1 O/U off a Monday game and 4-0 O/U as non-div HFs of 5 > pts.
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NFL Home dogs off a SU road win as a dog of 10 or more points are just 3-17 SU and ATS the last 20, they are in for a let down. (We cashed with St.Louis last week)The Cowboys are much more talented than the Rams.
St. Louis has not scored more than 14 points in 6 of their last 9 games and have been outscored by 102 points in 5 games.Lay the points
Green Bay +1
10 STAR Game of the Week
The first-year starter, Rodgers, is off to a much better start to the season than Manning, at least statistically. Rodgers' 98.0 passer rating ranks seventh in the league while the former Super Bowl MVP is at 87.8 to rank 14th, with three fewer touchdown passes but one more interception than Brett Favre's replacement.
Packers defense which is holding quarterbacks to a 62.3 passer rating - third-lowest in the league. Led by cornerback Charles Woodson, who tops the NFC with four interceptions,Green Bay's pass defense ranks seventh in the NFL at 178.8 yards per game.G B is off back to back home losses and will be entirely focused here as they are 9-1 straight up at home before a bye week.
OVER 37.5 Minnesota vs Chicago
You better believe the Bears will not play passively if they have the lead, after last week's defeat in the last 11 seconds. They will concentrate on offense,Minny has gone over in every game they played on the road this year.
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***STRONG OPINION****Tennessee Titans (-8.5) VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: After the Giants lost to the Browns on Monday Night, the Titans are now the only undefeated team left in the NFL. They now are giving more than a TD on the road off a bye which is quite interesting since this offense certainly wont be confused with the New Orleans Saints.’ It appears that the odds makers got a little carried away here and this game is one to exploit from a betting angle. The biggest trend that sticks out here us the fact the Chiefs apply to the same 25-3 ATS home underdog angle off a bye that the Browns qualified for last week in their blowout of the Giants. They also qualify for an 11-2 ATS home underdog angle that plays on teams getting more than a TD at home. The Titans are a very good team but their offense is not a quick strike atta ck that can make giving this many points a given. Larry Johnson will be suspended for KC but rookie Jamaal Charles is talented and will keep the ground game on track. The trends are strongly in the Chiefs’ favor and the home underdog angle that played on the Browns last week is a great scenario to back. THE PICK: Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5)
****STRONG OPINION***Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals will once again be without QB Carson Palmer this week as they look for their first win of the season. The Steelers come in off a bye looking to build off their comeback win against the Jaguars the week before. The series history heavily favors the home team as they are 44-22-1 ATS in that scenario. Cincy also qualifies for a 27-8-1 ATS angle that plays on winless teams after Week 6. The thinking goes that these teams go all out in an ef fort to finally get on the board. They certainly showed spunk with a good showing the last two weeks against the Cowboys and Jets and Pittsburgh doesn’t have=2 0the quick-strike ability on offense to run away early. THE PICK: Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5)
****BEST BET****CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) VS. New Orleans Saints: The bad Panthers showed up last week in a lopsided loss to the Buc’s which I called with a BEST BET. I am back on them this week however as this team has always been a great bet off a loss under John Fox and they welcome in a Saints team that cant stop anyone which will help Carolina get their offense back on track. New Orleans is also dealing with RB Reggie Bush being questionable with a bad knee. The key stat here is that the Panthers qualify for a great 46-19-4 ATS angle that plays on home favorites of 3 or more who scored less than 7 points the week before. THE PICK: Carolina Panthers (-3)
***BEST BET****Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Packers righted the ship last week against Seattle and they now find themselves in a very solid situation this week as a slight home underdog. They qualify for a rid iculously good 37-9-1 ATS home underdog angle against a non-division foe. They also qualify for a 22-7 ATS home momentum angle on top of the already solid angle mentioned before. The Colts looked awesome last week against a great Ravens defense but this is a letdown spot for them against a non-division opponent. THE PICK: Green Bay Packers (+1)
*****BEST BET*****WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-7) VS. Cleveland Browns: Classic bounce back/letdown angle at work here as the Redskins qualify for a 24-11-1 ATS home bounce back angle along with a 34-19-1 ATS home favorite against a non-division foe off a short week. The Browns opened some eyes with their solid play against the Giants last week but this team still has major issues on defense and the running game has been terribly inconsistent. Washington will be able to move the ball and they certainly will be more focused off such a lackluster defeat. Trends point firmly in Washington’s favor in this game. THE PICK: Washington Redskins (-7)
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Buffalo Bills +1.0 / 3 units
The Buffalo Bills off a bye week ,get ready to take on a San Diego side that is off a big emotional win against the New England Patriots on national TV last Sunday night. Add to that the Chargers are doing the dreaded West Coast , trek to a eastern destination, and you have a double jeopardy let down and scheduling situation .
With the added rest and QB Trent Edwards back in the lineup , after a mild concussion , this Buffalo side is a dangerous team , that remains a top dark horse super bowl contender. The Chargers have the names , and the experience but this is truly a bad spot for them.
Final notes & Key Trends: Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Teams going West to East this year are already 0-4, add one more to that pile of losers after today . The Bills are 13-6 following bye weeks, which ranks in the top 5 in that category since the break was introduced in 1990. That includes a 2-0 record after a off week under head coach Dick Jauron.
Projected Score: Buffalo 27 San Diego 17 -Play on the Bills 3* selection
Tennessee Titans -8.0 / 4 units
At this point of the season there is at least 1 team that starts the season on a run and reels off several wins without suffering a loss. Last year of course the New England Patriots nearly made NFL history in their attempt to become the first team to go 19-0, including the playoffs, since the regular season schedule was extended to 16 games; however, they came up short in the Super Bowl. Recent history shows that during the regular season, undefeated teams favored off a bye have continued to dominate their opponents. As long as they didn't shut out their last opponent and aren't playing in a game with a very high or low over/under line, these teams have had little problem maintaining their perfect record and covering the spread, recording a 20-0 SU and 20-0 ATS mark, winning outright by an average of 19.8 ppg. Tennessee at a perfect 5-0 fits in to the above parameters. I am usually all over a live home, dog, but this week, we're dealing with a corpse (KC), and feel very strongly the superior road team romps to a one sided victory. Last year the Titans won 26-17 at Arrowhead Stadium, but this version is even better than that version, and even more lopsided score should be expected.
Last year there were 2 active games and the games were never in doubt. In a Monday Night Football game on ESPN in Week 7, the Colts came off their bye and blasted the Jaguars on the road, covering the spread by 19 points. Then in Week 11, New England stormed out of their bye with a 46-point demolition of Buffalo, covering by 30' points.
Final notes & Injuries: KC RB Larry Johnson OUT Sunday due to a possible suspension which will effect their ground attack.Kansas City QB Brodie Croyle has been upgraded to Probable with a shoulder injury and expected to start, which has proven to not necessarily be a good thing.
Projected score: Tennessee 28 KC 9 4* selection
Pittsburgh Steelers / Cincinnati Bengals Under 35 / 3 units
The Cincinnati Bengals really had a hard time moving the ball last week, and nothing will change this Sunday, as QB Carson Palmer stays out with an injury. His replacement the light armed Ryan Fitzpatrick , cannot air it out like Palmer, and with the running game also showing very little sign of life, its going to be tough sledding against a Steeler defense that will stack the line and dare the Bengal pivot to throw the ball.
Meanwhile, the Steelers Ben Roethlisberger because of a obviously weak offensive line, has been sacked 18 times in 5 games. With main stay RB Willie Parker (knee) expected to miss Sundays game , the banged up, Steelers ground attack will not be able to take the pressure off of him. It must be noted Bengals are fourth in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 167.3 yards per game through the air.
This contest has all the makings of being a grinding low scoring affair.
Final notes & Key Trends: The Cincinnati offense has averaged 9.5 PPG at home this season and have scored an average 14.7 PPG on the season. The Steelers in 3 road games have only averaged 14 PPG. Steelers have gone under in 4 of their L/5 on the road off a bye. Under is 6-0 in Bengals last 6 vs. AFC North. Under is 9-3 in Bengals last 12 vs. a team with a winning record . Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati .
Seattle Seahawks +11.0 / 3 units
Seneca Wallace is expected to start at QB this week instead of the inconsistent Charlie Frye, who had started the last game because of an injury to starter Matt Hasselback. We get a good situation to bet in to, as Seneca Wallace has played in 24 NFL games, and can beat you with his arms and legs, providing opposing defenses with a lot of head aches, because of his mobility. Add to that the expected return of WR Deion Branch and this traveling Seahawks team looks like a very good underdog bet.
The Seahawks did not play well last time out losing a 27-17 decision to the Green Bay Packers, which followed up a horrendous effort against against the defending champs the NY Giants in their previous outing. Needless to say the team as a whole, will be very motivated to perform in this spot, against a Tampa Bay franchise that they have had success in the past as is evident by winning 7 of the L/8 meetings.
This is what I am betting will happen..... I expect Seattle will pound the running game down the throat of the Tampa Bay Bucs, behind QB Wallace, Rbs TJ Duckett, Julius Jones, and Maurice Morris. This will eat up a lot of clock time, which in turn will keep QB Jeff Garcia and company on the side lines for extended periods, which will keep their own defense fresh. All in all I expect this contest to be a slow grinding affair, that will be won with a lat FG or TD , which makes getting points golden in my humble opinion.
Projected score: Seattle 21 Tampa Bay 20 Seattle to cover 3* selection
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** Top Play NFC GOM **
Chicago - 3 vs Minnesota
Extremely tough spot for a Division team going here.Very strong Division specific system to: Play Against an away division underdog,and in this spread range, and with the Vikes WL % or worse, and who in their last game was a 7(+) pt home division favorite, they won the game SU but failed to cover.18-4 ATS, 82% for over 20 yrs The Vikes have won 2 in a row, but pass interference saved Minnesota in BOTH games. Minnesota has not impressed so far this season, with a pretty one dimensional offense & a defense not playing up to the offseason expectations.On the flip side, da Bears have had a chance in every game and could be 6-0 with a few good bounces.Chic HC Smith 8-1 off a SU non div loss vs a team off a win.Minn 2-14 rd dogs vs a team off SU/ATS loss, 1-8 off a non div dble dig ats loss vs a revenging team off a off a SU loss.
Chargers vs Buffalo Under 46.5
Since 1996, home teams in this spread range off a bye that lost on the road the week before the bye by at least the amount of points the Bills lost by, have gone Under off their week of rest 2-18 S1996 ....90% for 12 seasons.SD can score, but this is a bad spot. SD off the late Sunday Nite revenege game vs the Pats at 5:15 pst ( 8:15 et), now flying thru to the East Coast time zone and a 10 am pst (1 et) start. With the Bills coming off their Bye and off a West Coast game before, look for a sluggish game from both teams.
Miami vs Baltimore Under 37
We usually play just 1 total a week, but this is a great fit. Since 1998, Baltimore has gone UNDER 12-37-1 on the road vs teams that are not in their Division. 76% for 10 yrs.Miami is now Under 17 of their last 19 playing the first of TWO straight Home Games ...89% for 10 yrs.The Ravens still have the top ranked defense in the league with Miami not far behind at # 4 .Both teams have similar strategies of low key ball control offenses and strong defenses. looking for a windshield wiper type game here.
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Larry's 'Perfect Storm' G.O.M. (6-1 run!)
Larry's "assault on the pointspread" continues, after he's gone 6-1 (85.7% ATS) s/Thursday. What happens when an overrated team meets an underrated one? You get what Larry calls his 'Perfect Storm' G.O.M. All the details are provided inside with his expert analysis. Larry's 62.1% in NFL '08 and winning is just a click away:
Larry's Weekend Wipeout Winner (6-1 run)
Larry opened with a 2-0 CFB/MLB doubleheader sweep on Thursday and continued his "ATS assault" by going 4-1 in CFB on Saturday. Larry now turns to the NFL (he's 62.1 percent in NFL '08 releases) with a total which will be "over by halftime!" When Larry calls for a W-I-P-E-O-U-T, you want an invite to the party. RSVP now.
San Fran/ NYG OVER
Larry Ness' Week 7 Las Vegas Insider:4-1 TY
Larry's exclusive NFL Insiders are 4-1 (80%) through six weeks of the '08 season (Hurricane Ike postponed Larry's NFL Insider on Houston in Week 2). As always, Larry's 1st posted NFL play of the new week is his latest Las Vegas Insider and it's one you won't want to miss. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 7?
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (85.7% run!)
Larry's gone a money-making 18-11 with all his NFL '08 plays and is currently on a 6-1 (85.7%) run with all plays s/Thursday. He's won Oddsmaker's Error plays in Wk 6 with the Colts (31-3) and Saturday in CFB with Virginia (plus-4), an outright upset winner. Want more? Then look no further than his Wk 7 Oddsmaker's Error in the NFL!
Larry's ALCS Game 7 'Payday' (6-1 s/Thus)
Larry enters Sunday on a 6-1 (85.7%) all-sports run and these last two weekends, he's been able to cap each day with a "late winner." He won easily a week ago Saturday with Fla 51-31 and last Sunday with the Chargers 30-10. It was LSU last night and tonight Larry turns to his Game 7 ALCS Payday for that "late winner." Want in?
Boston Red Sox
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
8-2 yesterday in college football
PLAY OF THE WEEK:
JETS -3 to Raiders--Oakland has dropped three straight and are getting lit up by Brett Favre in the East Bay. Russell hasn't been completing anything (under 50%). Look what the Saints did the Raiders last week and it's ditto time here
GIANTS -10.5 to 49ers--New York will put it on San Fran in a big way after their miserable showing against the Browns Monday night in Cleveland. The 49er's got worked in the 4th Qtr against the Eagles and it will be more of the same against the G-Men. NY will run the ball down their throat and throw it easily vs the 49er's paper thin defense
INDY -1 at Green Bay--The Colts are starting to look good again and Peyton Manning seems to have his legs back. The difference here will be the Colts receivers getting open against the Packers secondary. Close game, but the Colts get the last laugh
DALLAS -6.5 to St.Louis--I don't care who's playing QB for the Cowboys(Brad Johnson)--they still roll in the Arch City becasue they are flat out better at every position on the field
BUFFALO +1 from San Diego--Have fun going up to Ralph Wilson Stadium and facing the Bills. The Chargers have been anything but consistent
CLEVELAND +7 from Washington--I think the Browns got some confidence against the Giants and at least go in to Fed Ex Field and COVER THE NUMBER--this will be a good game
SAINTS +3 from Carolina--New Orleans goes on the road and stuns the Panthers--I think this one is real tight and possibly goes to OT
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NFL: 29-13 (+57.30)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers
Prediction: 5* Indianapolis Colts -1
The Green Bay Packers will play host to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Green Bay checks in with a 3-3 record while Indy is 3-2 on the season.
Green Bay’s QB Aaron Rodgers played with an injured shoulder last week and came away with a 27-17 win in Seattle. Much has been made about how well he has done replacing a legend but if we look at the QB’s he’s defeated so far this season it’s not a list of future Hall-of-Famers. They are Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna and Charlie Frye. That will certainly change today as he faces Peyton Manning and Company.
The Packers win over Seattle was a win but they were facing a team that has been completely decimated by injuries this season. Even with all the injuries Seattle was still able to rush for 113 yards against this Packers defense.
Indianapolis hosted the Baltimore Ravens last week and it was obvious that Manning has caught up with the rest of his team after missing the entire preseason. They defeated a solid Ravens “D” 31 to 3 and Manning appeared to have found his timing with his receivers.
The Colts rushed 30 times for 76 yards and Manning was 19 of 28 for 258 yards. Indy’s defense was able to force the Ravens into five 3 & outs in their first 8 offensive possessions. The Colts defense ranks 4th in the NFL in YPPT with a 17.2 average.
This game will be a huge step up in talent for the Packers and we expect to see a fully focused Indy team on Sunday. The word out of the Colts camp is one of intensity and focus on the job at hand. With the momentum from the Ravens win and the confidence they now have on offense will make it very difficult on the Packers even at Lambeau.
Keys to the game will be the inexperience of the Packers defensive secondary that was thin to start the season and are now without CB Al Harris. This is one area of weakness that you do not want to have when facing Manning and the Colts.
The Packers “D” is allowing almost fifty more yards per game than last season. Their star RB Ryan Grant has yet to break the century mark and has not seen the endzone yet this season. These are all major issues when facing a seasoned Colts team and will be the difference in the game today.
Our Statistical Index favors the Colts in today’s contest by 3.5 points which gives us solid value with Indy only minus 1 on most boards. Our TPR Index has the Colts with a 5.9 point advantage while our PPR Index checks in with a very strong 7.1 edge for the Colts over the Packers on Sunday.
Our Situational Report show the Packers to be in a negative situation that says to Play Against teams with a below average Rushing Attack and an above average Passing Attack. This situations record is 117-52 ATS since 1994. The Packers are also active in another negative situation that says to Play Against teams between Week 7 and Week 12 with a season Interception Differential >=0.75 and their opponent has a Passing Rating of <=0.5. The record for this situation is 70-13 ATS since 1994.
Data base research has uncovered several technical systems that are active for today’s match up. NFL Teams are 23-6-1 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The League is 15-6 ATS as a favorite the week after at home in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The League is 15-7 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when they won their last two road games.
NFL Teams are 2-18 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500. NFL Teams are 11-31 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 2-13 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500 after playing on the road. NFL Teams are 3-12 ATS at home the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.
The Colts are 7-0 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Colts are 5-0 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. The Packers are 0-5 ATS as a dog the week before their bye.
The combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors make the Indianapolis Colts our 5* NFL Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Indianapolis Colts -1
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: 4* Tennessee Titans -9
Kansas City Chiefs will host the only unbeaten team left in the league in the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Both teams enter today’s contest off of their bye week.
Last season in this match up the Titans went into KC and defeated the Chiefs 28 to 17. Chiefs QB Croyle threw for 217 yards two TD’s and two INT’s.
KC has been outgained in ten straight games at home scoring 13 or less points in five of those contests. That’s bad news for the host as the Titans with DT Haynesworth in the lineup are only allowing 75 yards rushing per game and they have 44 QB sacks. In the 16 games that Haynesworth has been in the Titans lineup they have allowed 13 or less points in ten of those games and are 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS during that span.
Kansas City’s struggles on offense trigger a technical situation that says Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in road games facing a team that averages <=4.75 yards per play since 1992. Much of the Titans success has been because of their stingy defense that has held opponents to 288.6 yards per game - fourth-best in the NFL - and a league-low 11.2 points a contest while leading the NFL with 14 turnovers.
Tennessee hopes to strengthen its offense, which has averaged 289.0 yards and was limited to a season-low 210 versus the Ravens. Quarterback Kerry Collins was intercepted twice, but went 17-of-32 for 163 yards and his 11-yard touchdown pass to Alge Crumpler with 1:56 to play was the difference in the game.The Titans might be able to improve their offensive production versus a Chiefs team that has allowed 396.6 yards per game - fourth-worst in the league.Unlike Tennessee, Kansas City was dealing with several distractions during its bye week. On Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that nine-time Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez would remain with the team, following 10 tense days in which it was thought he might be traded to a contending club.The longtime face of the struggling franchise and the league's all-time leader among tight ends in receptions (841), receiving yards (10,075) and TD catches (68) - assured his teammates in a player’s only meeting Wednesday that he wasn't bitter about the outcome of the situation.The Chiefs, though, won't have star running back Larry Johnson available this week after the team suspended him for one game for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Johnson leads the team in rushing with 417 yards. However, the two-time Pro Bowler was held to two yards on seven attempts in a demoralizing 34-0 loss at Carolina on Oct. 5 in the Chiefs' most recent outing.With the Titans 5-0 and coming off a bye week one might be concerned that they will not be focused on the game at hand. This angle puts that thought to rest, Titan’s Head Coach Jeff Fisher is 13-3 ATS in road games when facing a team with a win percentage <=25% in all games he has coached since 1992. Tennessee is 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games off their bye week.
One of the most important statistics in football is yards per point and Tennessee is ranked number 1 in defensive YPPT with a rating of 23.9 and on offense their rating ranks them at number 5 in the NFL with a rating of 12.5.
Data base research has uncovered several technical systems that are active for today’s game. NFL Teams are 51-26 ATS as a favorite the week after their bye. The League is 42-19 ATS as a 7+ favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. NFL Teams are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 0-8 ATS as a home dog when their opponent is off their bye. NFL Teams are 18-30-1 ATS as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
Tennessee does have a Monday Night affair on deck against a divisional opponent but we know that NFL Teams are 14-2-1 ATS as a favorite the week before playing in that particular situation since 2001. Very unlikely that Coach Fishers team will be caught looking ahead.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play ON an undefeated favorite off a BYE with a TOTAL of 34-49½ points and not a shutout SU win in its last game, 20-0 ATS since 2001.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tennessee Titans -9
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
The Sunday night NFL Featured Game of the Week is in Tampa where the Bucs will host the Seattle Seahawks. Tampa is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS while Seattle checks in with a 1-4 record both SU and ATS.
Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren didn’t envision going out quite like this we don’t believe. He has been successful in his coaching career and at Seattle but his final season has been marked by multiple injuries and a defense that can’t stop anyone.
Seattle has allowed 30.2 points per game over the first five games of the season. They have really struggled on the highway with a record of 3-8 both SU and ATS having allowed an unbelievable 41 points per game over the last four.
Seattle is 17-44 ATS during the month of October since 1992. They are also 11-26 ATS on the road in weeks 5 thru 9 since 1992. Another negative for the Seahawks is they have to make the long trip east and they are 4-14 ATS in that situation and 7-14 ATS as a road underdog.
The Seahawks now face a team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home outscoring opponents 27 to 11. Tampa’s “D” ranks second in the league in YPPT with a rating of 19.3. This is a terrible sign for a struggling offense as the Bucs defense has been solid allowing Carolina only 3 points last week.
In some cases Gruden’s teams have let down after a home win but in this case they will be focused and looking for a little revenge as Seattle has defeated them the last three times they have faced off.
The Seahawks are 4-13 ATS as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 14-2-2 ATS at home when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS as a home 7+ favorite versus a non-divisional opponent.
Data base research has uncovered a few technical systems that are active for tonight’s game. NFL Teams are 8-29-1 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 2-16 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent.
NFL Teams are 53-23-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 31-13 ATS as a home favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 16-2 ATS as a home favorite the week after at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 16-3 ATS as a home favorite after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
Our TPR Index shows Tampa with a 12.7 point advantage over the Seahawks in tonight’s contest. Our Player Performance Ratings Index also has Tampa with the edge in this contest with a 14.5 differential. Our Math and Statistical Indicators both have Tampa winning this game with ease.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play ON a home favorite of 3½-16 points with a TOTAL of 46 points or less off a home SU win of 22+ points (not as a favorite of more than 2 points) in its last game, 10-0 ATS since 1988.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
Prediction: 4* San Francisco / New York Over 46.5
The New York Giants return home off their Monday Night disaster losing to the Browns in Cleveland 35 to 14. They play host to the San Francisco 49ers that were defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles last week 40 to 26.
Despite the loss, the Giants' still lead the NFL with 419.4 total yards and 181.2 rushing yards per game. They are also averaging 6.1 yards per rush. Those numbers could indicate a mismatch against a 49ers defensive unit that ranks 26th in the NFL.That defense proved San Francisco's undoing at home last Sunday against Philadelphia. The 49ers led by nine points entering the fourth quarter, but yielded 23 points in the final 11:38 en route to a 40-26 defeat.The Giants offense has become one of the top two or three in the league. Even in the loss to the Browns on Monday night they averaged 6.9 yards per play. The key to their offensive transformation has been the improved play of QB Eli Manning. Manning has averaged 7.2 yards per pass play this season while only throwing four INT’s and three of those came in the Monday night game against the Browns.
New York’s defense was playing rather well during the first four games of the season allowing 4.9 yards per play. Then came game number five and they allowed the Cleveland Browns to average 8.1 yards per play in the loss.
San Francisco’s offense has shown promise at times this season. The 49ers have been able to move the ball on offense averaging 5.6 yards per play. The key for the 49ers offense is for their QB JT O’Sullivan to limit the INT’s, he has thrown seven interceptions during the three-game losing streak after throwing only one INT the first three games.
If O'Sullivan continues to struggle, the 49ers may need to rely even more heavily on RB Frank Gore, whose 524 rushing yards rank fourth in the NFL. He also leads San Francisco with 22 receptions for 196 yards.
Gore was a relative bright spot for the 49ers when they visited New York last Oct. 21, gaining 111 yards of total offense, but four turnovers helped undo San Francisco in a 33-15 defeat.San Francisco’s defense has given up 101 points over their three-game losing skid. On the road the 49ers “D” averages allowing 30.5 points per game while their offense has been able to score on the highway with an average of 25 points per game. This type of play from the 49ers will help send this Total over the posted number.New York has averaged 28.7 points per game on offense when playing at home and over the last three games their defense has given up an average of 21.3 points per game. All numbers pointing to an “Over” in today’s contest.Our Offensive Efficiency Index actually has the 49ers with a better rating than the Giants. The 49ers check in with an Index Rating of 13.07 while the Giants come in with an Index Rating of 14.87. Remember the lower the number the more efficient the offense.
On the technical front we know that teams from the West Coast playing a team on the East Coast have gone “Over” the posted total in 21 of 28 games as long as it’s game number 7 or less on the year. If our West Coast team is an underdog the record improves to 20 out of 25 “Over” and if they are a dog of 7 or more points that record is 9 out of 10 “Over” in this situation. We also note that game six teams off their first loss of the season are 9-1 Over in their next contest if that loss occurred on the highway.
The 49ers are 8-1 Over the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 7-0 Over when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The 49ers are 11-3 Over the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 10-1 Over versus the NFC East, 5-1 Over facing an opponent coming off a Monday Night game and 5-1 Over off back-to-back home games.
The Giants are 10-1 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 10-1-1 Over after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 14-5 Over as a favorite the week after on the road in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 Over at home the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 Over as a favorite the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 12-3 Over at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Giants are 14-4 Over as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.
NFL Teams are 22-11 Over as a dog after a straight up loss as a home dog. NFL Teams are 15-5 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. NFL Teams are 14-3 Over when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 at home as a dog. NFL Teams are 42-23-1 Over as a dog after a straight up loss as a dog. NFL Teams are 61-35-1 Over the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The League is 12-0 Over as a favorite the week after a road game in which they got a first down on at least 40% of their offensive plays. NFL Teams are 40-17-2 Over as a favorite when they lost by 21+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 21-7 Over as a favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The League is 16-6 Over as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.With strong fundamental support and several technical indicators active for this contest we will make this our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week for Week 7 of the NFL Season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* San Francisco / New York Over 46.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: 3* Tennessee / Kansas City Over 35.5
The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the only remaining undefeated AFC team, the Tennessee Titans. Both teams enter this contest off of their bye week and the Chiefs certainly needed something as they were soundly defeated at Carolina 34 to 0 their last game before the bye.
A quick look at the numbers for each team we see that the Titans have averaged 24.7 points per game over their last three while their defense allowed 13 points per game. The Chiefs are averaging 20 points per game offensively at home this season while their defense is allowing 21 points per game on the year.
The loss by KC at Carolina triggers a technical situation that tells us to play the “Over” with any team after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less in their last game. This situation has posted a record of 72-37 Over since 1983.
Kansas City’s inability to rush the football (17 rushes / 35 yards) in their game against Carolina makes them active in another very strong technical situation. The situation says to “Play Over” with any team after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their last game facing an opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards (22 rushes / 47 yards) in their last game. This technical situation has posted a record of 32-7 Over the last five seasons.
The fact the Chiefs were shutout in their last game makes them active in another technical situation for today’s contest. Teams that were shutout in their last game and lost by 28 or more points are 7-0-1 Over the last four years.
The Titans last game triggers a technical situation for them that says to “Play Over” on NFL road teams after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of their last game and now facing an opponent that scored 14 points or less in their last game. This tech set has posted a record of 48-25 Over the last five years.
Tennessee’s unblemished record makes them active in this technical situation. Teams playing their sixth game of the season with a perfect 5-0 record have posted an 11-2 Over record and a 10-0 Over record if they are facing a non-division opponent. Also teams that are off five straight wins both SU and ATS during the month of October are a perfect 5-0 Over when installed as a non-division road favorite.
Tennessee is 20-6 Over when facing teams that allow >=350 yards per game since 1992. 13-3 Over off a close road win of 3 points or less in their last game. 12-3 Over when facing teams that allow >=350 yards per game since 1992. The Titans are 12-5 Over on the road when they won and covered their last two games. Kansas City is 6-0 Over in game six of the season. 4-0 Over at home off their bye week and 5-1 Over off a loss of twenty-one or more points in their last game. The Chiefs are 12-3 Over as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Chiefs are 14-3-1 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Chiefs are 6-0 Over when facing an undefeated team after Week One.
NFL Teams are 15-5 Over as a home 7+ dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 13-6 Over as a home 7+ dog when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. NFL Teams are 43-23-2 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.
Strong technical support plus solid fundamental indicators help make this an easy Over Selection on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Tennessee / Kansas City Over 35.5
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
5 Unit Play. Take Cleveland Browns over Washington Redskins
The Skins got burned last week laying a big number and yet again they are expect to cover around a touchdown spread against the Browns. Cleveland saved their season with a blowout victory on Monday and expect them to follow that up with another outstanding performance on Sunday. The Redskins are still leaning this new offensive system and while I like they can win this game, but will not be by a blowout. Cleveland has weapons with Braylon Edwards to stretch the field and this one will go down to the wire and only be decided by a field goal. Washington 21, Cleveland 20.