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Friday Night Football

Friday Night Football

Hawaii Warriors vs. Boise State Broncos

Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as 24-point favorites versus the Warriors, while the game's total is sitting at 52½.

Hawaii scored 21 points in the first half in Week 7 en route to a 24-14 win over Louisiana Tech.

The Warriors were only able to PUSH the 10-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (50.5).

Kellen Moore threw three TD passes as Boise State defeated Southern Mississippi 24-7 in Week 7. Boise State covered the 11-point spread, but the game's 31 points fell well UNDER the posted total of 57.

Moore completed 21-of-30 pass attempts for 174 yards for Boise State. Austin Pettis caught two TD passes in the win.

Current streak:
Hawaii has won 2 straight games.
Boise State has won 5 straight games.

Team records:
Hawaii: 3-3 SU, 2-3 ATS
Boise State: 5-0 SU, 3-1 ATS

Hawaii most recently:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 9-1

Boise State most recently:
When playing in October are 10-0
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
Hawaii is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
Hawaii is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 6 games when playing Boise State
Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
Boise State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Hawaii
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State's last 6 games when playing Hawaii

Next up:
Hawaii home to Nevada, Saturday, October 25
Boise State at San Jose State, Friday, October 24

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Re: Friday Night Football

Hawaii at Boise St.
By Brian Edwards

When you play an ‘under,’ you know you’re in trouble when there are two touchdowns scored on special teams in the first half alone. Tack on a defensive fumble return for a TD and you’re done.

Those were the chafe circumstances we dealt with last week, as our season record for “Friday Night Lights” fell to 4-2-1. After tasting defeat with an ‘under’ 56 play in Louisville’s 35-28 win at Memphis, we are back to attack this Friday’s game in bounce-back mode.

And we always love wagering on games played on the smurf turf in Boise. That’s where the Broncos will play host to Hawaii in a critical WAC showdown between schools that have crashed the BCS party (separately in 2006 and 2007, respectively) the last two seasons.

I don’t have many gambling “rules” because I firmly believe every matchup is unique, but there are a few exceptions. I established one of those in Week 2 of 2004 when Boise St. spanked Oregon St. by a 53-34 count as an eight-point home favorite.

I absolutely loved the Beavers going into this game and Derek Anderson came out on fire in leading OSU to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. With the eight-point cushion and the 14-point advantage, I was ignorantly cashing the ticket in my head with a 22-point lead.

In fact, I quit watching the game, bolting to the bar (Smith’s in Atlanta) for Budweisers and eye candy galore instead. When I checked the score an hour or so later, the 22-point lead was long gone, replaced by a double-digit deficit.

When the Broncos were done hanging a 53-spot on the Beavers, I had a new “rule” that clearly states this: NEVER – ever, ever! – fade the Broncos on the blue turf.

Since that miserable September night in 2004, I haven’t once broken the rule. In fact, I’ve backed Boise at home with a bunch of success, including an easy winner on Oct. 1 of this season when it destroyed La. Tech 38-3 as a 24-point ‘chalk.’

We’re looking at a similar line this week, as Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Boise State (5-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) as a 24-point favorite. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had the Broncos at 24½ with the total in the 52-53 range.

Chris Petersen’s team is off a rare venture into the southeast where it came away with a 24-7 win over Southern Miss. The Broncos took the money as 10-point road favorites.

Kellen Moore threw for 170 yards and three touchdowns, hooking up with Austin Pettis for a pair of scoring strikes. Moore completed 21-of-30 throws, finding Jeremy Childs 10 times for 92 yards and a 28-yard touchdown.

Moore, a redshirt freshman, has been sensational all year, as evidenced by his 71.5 percent completion rate. He has 1,335 passing yards and an outstanding 10/3 touchdown-interception ratio.

Hawaii (3-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) has won back-to-back games both SU and ATS, including last Saturday’s 24-14 win over La. Tech as a nine-point favorite. Inoke Funaki threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another to lead the Warriors to victory.

You know times have changed for Hawaii when you look at the box score and see 40 rushing attempts compared to just 26 passes. That never happened under June Jones, but it worked in last week’s win over the Bulldogs.

A similar formula (33/25 rush-pass ratio) worked at Fresno St. two weeks ago when the Warriors beat a ranked team on the road for the first time in school history. Greg McMackin’s squad captured a 32-29 triumph in overtime as a 22-point underdog.

Dan Kelly made four field goals, including the game winner from 33 yards out in the extra session. Hawaii took advantage of six Fresno turnovers and two missed field goals at crunch time (one at end of regulation, another in OT).

Since 2000, Boise St. owns a 33-13 spread record as a home favorite. The Broncos are 3-0 SU and 1-1 ATS at home this year. They are 2-1 ATS as double-digit favorites.

Since 2003, Hawaii has a 9-17 ATS mark on the road. The Warriors are 1-2 ATS on the road this year, as they were destroyed at Florida (56-10) and at Oregon St. (45-7) before winning at Fresno.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--LVSC uses four oddsmakers for college football. All four make their own personal numbers for each game and then the group usually meets in the middle to determine the opening line. For Boise-Hawaii, the numbers ranged from 19 1/2 to 27. Scott Ramsey had the 19 1/2, while Kenny White had 20. Mike Seba went with 25 and Tony Sinisi used 27.

--North Carolina hasn’t won at Virginia since 1981.

--Clemson running back C.J. Spiller is “out” for this week’s home game against Ga. Tech. The Tigers opened as four-point favorites, but they are now 2½-point underdogs.

--The Duke-Miami number has been on the move this week. LVSC opened the ‘Canes as 6½-point road favorites, but UM was down to 3½ and even three at some spots by Thursday. LVSC’s Kenny White made the game a pick ‘em, while I thought the number would be seven. The Blue Devils are 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year.

--Michigan has won nine in a row over Penn St. Look for that steak to come to a screaming halt this weekend.

--For our purposes, there are four unbeaten teams remaining. Ball St. and Texas are 6-0 ATS, while Oklahoma St. and Ga. Tech are 5-0 and 4-0, respectively. On the flip side, Wyoming and Washington St. should be at the top of your fade radar with 0-6 spread ledgers. Clemson is 0-4 ATS and Indiana is 0-4-1 versus the number.

--I'll have my pick for Boise-Hawaii up later today. If you're interested, here's my Top 30 and SEC Nuggets for this week.

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Re: Friday Night Football

What bettors need to know: Hawaii at Boise State

Hawaii at Boise Stat (-24.5, 52.5)

The line

Side: Boise State -24.5
That’s a lot of respect for the Broncos against an improving conference opponent. Home-field advantage is a big factor. Since 2000, Boise State is 36-13 as a favorite on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium. Head coach Chris Peterson has never lost at home in his 2 1/2 seasons. The line hadn’t moved much through the middle of the week.

Total: 52.5
The forecast calls for a balmy October evening in Boise, with temperatures in the upper 50s, not a lot of wind and only a slim chance of precipitation. Statistically, the total is pretty accurate. Boise State averages a little more than 33 points a game. Hawaii scores right at 21 per game.

If you haven’t seen …

Boise State: The Broncos (5-0) are solid on both sides of the ball and extremely well-coached. Redshirt freshman quarterback Kellen Moore (6-foot-1, 174 pounds) has been great. Moore is a less-mobile version of Jared Zabransky, but a more-accurate passer. He’s sixth in the nation in passing efficiency. Running back Ian Johnson, in seemingly his 10th season, is still churning out yards. But the Broncos do just enough on the ground to open up the passing game.

Boise State’s defense dominated three teams with comparable offensive talent to Hawaii in wins over Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech and Bowling Green. The Broncos have surrendered only eight touchdowns this season; four of those coming in their upset win at Oregon.

Hawaii: This isn’t June Jones’ Warriors.  So don’t be expecting an aerial assault from Hawaii (3-3, won two straight).Quarterback Inoke Funaki (5-11, 195) is a far cry from Colt Brennan, but the little guy has sparked the offense since being inserted as the starter three weeks ago. Funaki accounted for 249 yards of offense and threw two touchdowns in Hawaii’s overtime win at Fresno State.

While the offense has taken a step back, the defense is enhanced with three returning first-team All-WAC players, including preseason Player of the Year LB Solomon Elimimian.

Public perception

Hawaii: On paper, the upset of Fresno State as a 21-point underdog is Hawaii’s most impressive win. But the Warriors benefited from six Bulldog turnovers and blew a 17-point second-half lead, before winning in overtime.

Boise State: It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find reasons not to buy into the Broncos. Last week’s win at Southern Miss is more impressive than at first glance.

Injuries/suspension of significance
•Boise State WR Tutus Young is suspended. He is second on the team in receiving.
•Hawaii LB Adam Leonard’s return is a huge lift to the Hawaii defense.

Last year
Hawaii 39, Boise State 27: Personnel-wise, last year’s game means very little, with significant turnover on each roster. The Broncos should find some motivation from knowing that last season’s loss in Hawaii was their only conference defeat since 2005.

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Re: Friday Night Football

Hawaii (3-3, 2-3 ATS) at (15) Boise State (5-0, 3-1 ATS)

Boise State will try to remain undefeated and avenge a heartbreaking loss from a year ago when the Broncos host Hawaii in a Western Athletic Conference matchup on the Smurf Turf at Bronco Stadium.

The Broncos, long known for their powerful offense, have relied on their defense this season as they rank seventh in the nation in points allowed (11.2 per game), limiting the opposition to seven points or less in four of their five games. On Saturday, Boise State went to Southern Mississippi and scored a 24-7 non-conference win as 10-point favorites, getting three touchdown passes from QB Kellen Moore, all in the second quarter. Moore has completed 71.3 percent of his throws for 1,339 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs.

Hawaii has won two straight, including a 24-14 home win Saturday over Louisiana Tech as a 7½-point favorite, forcing four turnovers and getting 224 passing yards and two TDs from QB Inoke Funaki. The last time the Warriors left the islands, they stunned then 22nd-ranked Fresno State 32-29 in overtime as a 21-point underdog, forcing six turnovers in beating a ranked opponent on the road for the first time ever.

These schools were both undefeated when they hooked up in Hawaii on Nov. 23, and the Warriors prevailed 39-27 as a 2½-point home chalk, outgaining Boise State 574-323. That result snapped a six-game Boise State winning streak in this series (4-2 ATS). In addition, the Broncos had scored at least 41 points in five straight games against Hawaii prior to last season.

The Warriors are in ATS slumps of 2-5 overall, 1-5 on the highway, 2-6 on Fridays and 8-19 against teams with a winning record, but they are 5-2-1 in their last eight October contests. The Broncos are on positive ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-1 in WAC contests, 8-2 on Fridays, 38-16-1 on the Smurf Turf and 39-19 following a spread-cover.

Hawaii is getting outscored by an average of nine points per game this season (30-21) and outgained by an average of 38 yards per contest (370-332). On the flip side, Boise’s stout defense is supported by an offense that nets 33.6 points and 432.2 total yards per game.

Hawaii is on over runs of 21-8-1 following a spread-cover and 19-7-1 in October, but the under is 9-2 in its last 11 overall and 6-1 in its last seven WAC contests. For Boise, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 overall, 5-1 in its last six conference games and 5-1 in its last six after a spread-cover.

Finally, the over is 4-2 in this rivalry dating back to 2002 (2-1 at Boise State).


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