Thursday Service Plays

Thursday Service Plays

Marc Lawrence

BYU / TCU
PICK: Under 47

A clash of the Titans takes place in Forth Worth Thursday evening when 8th ranked BYU takes on 24th ranked TCU in a key Mountain West Conference showdown.

While both teams are often lauded for their offense the fact of the matter it's their defense that has put them in the Top 25 this season. That's confirmed by TCU allowing 11 PPG and 208 YPG (No.1 overall) while BYU surrenders 10 PPG with a 302 YPG defense.

With this being the biggest game on each team's schedule this season to date, we'll look more of the same here tonight. Go under the 47 points.

We recommend a 1-unit play in the UNDER.

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Florida State (4-1, 2-1 ATS) at N.C. State (2-4, 3-2 ATS)

Florida State, coming off a bye week following two straight victories, hits the road for an ACC meeting with North Carolina State in Raleigh, N.C.

The Seminoles edged Miami in a shootout 41-39 two weeks ago as a one-point road underdog, winning and cashing for the second straight game. FSU, which scored the game’s first 24 points, had its erratic quarterback play continue, as Christian Ponder went just 14 of 31 for 159 yards with one TD offset by two INTS – one returned for a score. The ‘Noles finished with four turnovers, but they also forced three INTs and outgained the ‘Canes 442-257, finishing with a whopping 283 yards rushing, while doubling Miami in time of possession.

The Wolfpack, also coming off a bye, suffered its second straight home loss two weeks ago, falling 38-31 to Boston College but narrowly getting the cash as a 7½-point home pup. QB Russell Wilson (19 of 33, 218 yards, 1 TD) had a fair effort, and N.C. State had no turnovers and forced one INT, but the Wolfpack were outgained by an eye-popping 578-253 margin, with B.C. quarterback Chris Crane completing 34 of 51 passes for 428 yards and two TDs.

N.C. State is on a 6-0-1 ATS run (4-3 SU) in this rivalry – all as an underdog – and has cashed in the last three battles (2-1 SU), including last year’s 27-10 road loss catching 18 points. The road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.

The Seminoles are on an 8-16 ATS slide as a chalk (1-1 ATS this year) and are on additional pointspread skids of 1-4-1 in Thursday contests and 2-5 after a SU win. The Wolfpack, despite their sub-.500 SU mark, carry ATS streaks of 4-0 after a bye, 4-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-2 in conference play.

The over is on a 5-1 run on the highway for FSU and is 9-2 in the Seminoles’ last 11 October contests, 5-1 in N.C. State’s past six at home and 3-1 in the last four series meetings. However, the under is 6-1 in the ‘Pack’s last seven Thursday contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.C. STATE


(9) BYU (6-0, 2-3 ATS) at TCU (6-1, 4-2 ATS)

Brigham Young takes its unbeaten record and BCS bowl hopes to Fort Worth, Texas, for a Mountain West Conference matchup with Texas Christian.

The Cougars are coming off a 21-3 home victory over New Mexico, though they failed to cover as a heavy 23-point chalk, losing the cash for the second straight week. BYU led just 7-3 at halftime before QB Max Hall (22 of 34, 258 yards, 3 TDs) finally got the offense rolling, and the Cougars ended up with a 380-288 total yardage edge.

The Horned Frogs barely got out of Colorado State with a 13-7 win, falling well short of covering as a 15½-point favorite. But the top-ranked TCU defense held the Rams to just 199 total yards – under the Frogs’ season average of 205.9 – giving up a minuscule 11 net rushing yards and picking off two passes.

TCU has gone 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings in this rivalry, though BYU has won the last two outright, including a 27-22 home victory last year laying seven points. The road team has cashed in four of the last five clashes, including the last three in a row.

Both teams are similar statistically, with BYU averaging 37.8 points and 450 total yards per game, with TCU netting 33.7 points and 398.7 yards per contest. However, the Cougars do most of their offensive damage in the air (320.3 passing ypg), while the Horned Frogs grind it out on the ground (228.7 rushing ypg). Defensively, BYU yields 10.2 points and 304.3 total ypg (117.8 rushing ypg), while the Frogs hold opponents to 11.4 ppg and lead the nation in rushing defense (19.1 ypg).

The Cougars are on ATS runs of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 on Thursday, 4-1 in MWC play and 8-3 after a non-cover, but they are on a 3-6 ATS slide on the highway (0-2 this year). The Horned Frogs are on an 8-3 ATS spree overall and sport additional positive pointspread trends of 38-16 at home – including 14-4 since 2005 – 4-1 after a non-cover, 10-4-1 in conference play, and 15-7-1 after a SU win.

The over for BYU is 6-1 in its last seven Thursday games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five conference games, and the under for TCU is on runs of 5-2 overall, 8-1 at home and 4-1 against Mountain West foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER


ALCS

Tampa Bay (6-2) at Boston (4-4)

The upstart Rays, whose first winning season in their 11-year history came this year, stand on the brink of the World Series when they send southpaw Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49 ERA) to the hill at Fenway Park against righty Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90 ERA) and the Red Sox for Game 5 of the ALCS.

Tampa Bay followed up its 9-1 Game 3 thrashing of Boston with a 13-4 beatdown Tuesday night in Game 4 at Fenway to go up 3-1 in the best-of-7 series, teeing off on starter Tim Wakefield, one of five Red Sox hurlers sent to the mound. The Rays are now 12-9 against the defending World Series champions this year, including a sterling 10-3 in the last 13 clashes. And after losing their first six games at Fenway in 2008, they’ve won four of the last five.

Tampa Bay is on hot streaks of 7-2 overall, 9-1 against A.L. East foes, 4-1 on the road and 36-16 versus right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still 23-10 in their last 32 postseason games and 12-5 in their last 17 home playoff games, and they sport additional positive streaks of 64-29 at Fenway and 17-6 following a defeat. But Boston is in a 2-5 rut against A.L. East foes.

Prior to its recent 4-1 run at Fenway, Tampa had lost 45 of its previous 54 games in Boston. Also, the home team won the first 12 meetings between these clubs this season, but the visitor is now 6-3 in the last nine.

Kazmir started Game 2 and got beat up, yielding five runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings Saturday, but the Rays pulled out a 9-8 victory to tie the series before coming to Boston and winning the next two games. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in Kazmir’s last 10 starts, with the 24-year-old posting a 5-2 mark with three no-decisions in that span.

Kazmir got a no-decision in his last outing at Fenway – a 5-4 Tampa victory Sept. 9 in which he allowed two runs on five hits in six innings. In his subsequent start Sept. 15, though, Boston lit up Kazmir for nine runs on nine hits in just three innings in Tampa Bay. The Rays are 3-2 this season against the Sox behind Kazmir, who has gone 0-2 with three no-decisions in those contests. Kazmir is 4-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road starts this year, and for his career, he is 6-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 21 starts against Boston.

Matsuzaka was nearly flawless in winning Game 1, giving up no hits until the seventh inning. In that inning, he yielded four hits but still kept the Rays scoreless in finishing the inning before exiting the game. Matsuzaka is 8-1 with four no-decisions in his last 13 starts – 11 of which the Red Sox have won – allowing three runs or less in 12 of those contests. Also, he’s 1-0 with one no-decision and a 2.45 ERA in two playoff starts so far.

Boston is now 2-2 this season with Matsuzaka facing the Rays, but 0-1 at home. For his career, he is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in eight starts against Tampa Bay. Additionally, Matsuzaka is 9-3 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 home starts this year.

The over is on a 6-1 tear in Kazmir’s last seven starts and is on further runs of 5-0 with the lefty going on four days’ rest, 4-0 when he faces the A.L. East and 4-1 when he battles winning teams. On the flip side, with Matsuzaka throwing, the under is on runs of 11-5-1 overall, 5-1 at home and 10-3-1 on grass.

The “over” trends for Tampa Bay are plentiful, including 6-1 on the road against right-handers, 20-6 overall against righties, 7-3 on the road and 15-7 following a win. For Boston, the over is on a 6-0 spree in ALCS home games and is also 7-2-1 in its last 10 home playoff contests, but otherwise for the Red Sox, the under is on streaks of 4-0 on Thursday, 6-2-1 following an off day and 5-2-2 against left-handed starters.

Finally, the last three meetings in this series have soared past the total and the over is 5-0 in Kazmir’s last five starts against the Red Sox and 4-1 in Matsuzaka’s last five outings against the Rays.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER

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Pure Lock

FLORIDA STATE @ NC STATE
PLAY: NC STATE (+) PTS


R&R Totals

Florida State @ NC State
Play: UNDER THE TOTAL

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Jimmy The Moose

Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Over

Both teams have played the over in 2 of their 3 games thus far thanks to their poor defensive play. The Avalanche have allowed 4.5 goals/game in their 3 games so far this season. On the other side the Flyers have allowed 4 goals/game in that same span. The over is a profitable 7-1-1 in Colorado's last 9 home games. Both team's have some decent goal scoreres and they both will capitalize tonight. Look for plenty of goals tonight. Play the Over.

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Jim Feist

WAS Capitals / PIT Penguins
Take Over

A couple of strong offensive teams here. The Pittsburgh Penguins don't expect to go much longer with minimal output from stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. For now, they're getting by with goals from players whose scoring for a season sometimes doesn't match a week of Crosby's. Pascal Dupuis scored on a slap shot from along the edge of the left circle with 10.8 seconds left in overtime and the Penguins in a 3-2 win over the Flyers. Washington is averaging almost 5 goals per game and is allowing just over 3 goals per game. With so much offensive firepower, this one sails over. Play the Capitals/Flyers over the total.

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Dave Cokin

BYU / TCU
Take Under

Tonight's MWC clash between BYU and TCU is a big one. The Cougars are looking to crash the BCS party, and need to keep winning to get their shot. While they're a program renowned for offense, it's actually the BYU defense that has been the more consistent unit this season. Over their last four games, BYU has two shutouts, led 34-0 vs. Utah State before giving up a couple of meaningless scores and held New Mexico to one field goal. TCU gave up a bunch on the road to Oklahoma. But in their other six games, the Horned Frogs have surrendered a grand total of 45 points. I expect the two stop units to be at their respective best in this important game, and I look for the Under to come home a winner.

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Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

TCU -1 over BYU

The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS as home dogs vs. .900 or better opponents and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with the line at +3 to -3., while the Cougars are 1-8 SU on the road from game 5 on out if they are undefeated. All the talk around the MWC is who will be a BCS buster this year, Utah or BYU, but there is another team that resides in this conference that may have a say in that. TCU comes in at 6-1, with their only loss coming vs. then #1 Oklahoma, and a win here will vault them back into the top 25 and the National spotlight. The Horned Frogs bring the top rated defense into this contest as they are allowing just 208 total ypg, including a miniscule 21 ypg on the ground , with an 0.9 ypc average. The defense is also ranked 9th in scoring, but a pass defense that ranks 42nd in the nation could have some problems with the 8th rated passing offense in the Nation. BYU does struggle on the ground, but they are 17th in the nation in scoring at 37.8 ppg. The BYU defense has a bend but don?t break approach as they are 40th in rushing, 41st against the pass, but 2nd in scoring defense at 10.2 ppg. The TCU offense has not been that great as they are 40th in total offense and 98th in passing offense, but they can pound the ball with the 13th rated rushing offense (228 ypg and 4.6 ypc) and that should help them keep this powerful BYU offense on the sideline. BYU gets the offensive edge, but TCU has the defensive edge, the special teams edges and the added edge of playing at home. BYU has won 16 in a row overall, but all streaks must come to an end and that streak will end tonight.


1 UNIT PLAY

2 Team 6 Point Teaser--- FSU/ NC State Under 53, Florida State -5

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Indiancowboy COMP

TCU -1

There is a lot of interesting things going on in this game. For starters, BYU is playing for a BCS Bowl Birth and TCU is one of the few competent teams that stands in their way. The line which opened up for BYU as a -1.5 favorite with around 65% of the public on them has now gone down to a pick-em in most places despite most of the public on BYU. In fact, there are places now where you will find BYU as the Underdog. Note, that the Quarterback for TCU Dalton is questionable for this game. Even with that, the line has significantly and still moves toward TCU. BYU beat this team 27-22 last year in a hard fought game at home which TCU covered the touchdown spread on the road. Folks talk about BYU's great winning streak thus far as they have won their last 10+ games including being ranked 8th in the nation. But, did you know that TCU has won 9 of its last 10 games? Heck, this team beat New Mexico on the road 26-3. This team is also 6-3 ATS over its last 10 and has defeated other teams at home 41-7 (San Diego State), Stanford 31-14 and won on the road decisively at SMU and gave Oklahoma a bit of a fight before being overwhelmed. Having said that, BYU continues to roll comfortably with Max Hall behind the helm having thrown for 20 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Look, I can't make this an official pick for me for a couple of reasons including not knowing how the quarterback stands for TCU. But, let me ask you something. What has BYU proved on the road? Barley defeating Washington in a controversial game on the road is their only pad to success on the highway - Utah State does not count. It's not an official play, but I'm rolling with TCU as my comp play today as they are 4-0 ATS when playing teams with a winning road record and 4-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss.

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VEGAS EXPERTS

BYU at TCU

Are we missing something here? Why is undefeated BYU laying this few points? In some places, they are a pick. People must really be buying into the Horned Frogs' 5-0 ATS mark in Fort Worth vs. ranked opponents. Unfortunately for them, the Cougars are 17-9 ATS in MWC play under HC Mendenhall. TCU has allowed an average of 475 YPG and 36 PPG to BYU over the last three seasons. They've lost the last two by 14 and 5 respectively and that's what we see this time around.

Play on: BYU

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Tom Freese

Philadelphia at Colorado

Philadelphia is 37-15-2 OVER when playing their fourth game in six nights and they are 6-1 OVER their last 7 road games. The Flyers are 4-0 OVER vs. a team that allowed 5 or more goals in their last game. Colorado is 7-1-1 OVER their last 9 home games and they are 7-3 OVER their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. PLAY ON 'OVER'

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Sportsbettingstats

BYU at TCU

Last weekend the Cougars beat New Mexico 21-3 while the Horned Frogs beat Colorado State 13-7. This game features the explosive passing offense of the Cougars against the nation's #1 ranked defense of the Horned Frogs. BYU hopes to remain undefeated and extend the nation's longest winning streak to 16 games. The Cougars are led by QB Max Hall (1845 yds 20 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are Austin Collie (47 rec 673 yds 8 TD) and Dennis Pitta (40 rec 542 yds 3 TD). The Cougars rushing attack is led by RB Harvey Unga (550 yds 4 TD). The Horned Frogs are led by QB Andy Dalton (818 yds 0 TD 2 INT), who is coming back from an injury. His two main targets are Jimmy Young (31 rec 383 yds and Shae Reagan (13 rec 174 yds 1 TD). The TCU rushing attack is led by the duo of Joseph Turner (331 yds 9 TD).

Staff Pick: The Horned Frogs are #1 in the nation in total defense at 207.4 yards per game and #1 in the Football Bowl Subdivision in rushing defense at 20.7 ypg. They will have their hands full against a Cougars offense that ranks 9th in passing yards per game and 18th in total yards per game. TCU's Dalton may be back at QB, which will give the Horned Frogs a different look, as backup QB Marcus Jackson is more of a runner and leads the Horned Frogs in rushing yards (352 yds). Up until this game the Horned Frogs have played a pretty weak schedule, as their only game against a top 25 team was against Oklahoma, which they lost big 35-10. BYU has played even a weaker schedule, as even though they are undefeated they have not played one team in Division 1 that has a winning record. The Horned Frogs D will have to get to Hall and not let them pick them apart through the air. This will be the best defense, by far, that the Cougars have faced this season. One X factor in this game is that there is a good chance of rain and the team that can run the ball may have the advantage. TCU leads in that category, as they rank 13th in rushing yards per game while BYU ranks 73rd. Look for a close game, but for the home field, the weather, and the Horned Frogs D to be the main reasons the Horned Frogs will win. Chalk another win for an unranked team against a ranked one on a Thursday night, which has happened more times than not this college football season.

Horned Frogs 21 Cougars 17

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Karl Garrett

Tampa Bay +140 at BOSTON 

The linesmakers are just begging you to take Tampa Bay this Thursday night, and you know what? I am gonna do just that!

Why not?

All Tampa has done is thoroughly dominate this series the last 3 games, outscoring Boston 22-5 in their last pair of wins at Fenway Park.

Yes, I know all about how dominant Dice K was in Game One, and I know all about Boston's previous playoff comeback wins, but in reality, that was the past.

Right now, Boston doesn't appear to be able to hit their way out of a wet paper bag, and Tampa is swinging the bats so well, I don't doubt for a minute they are going to chase Matsuzaka before the 6th inning.

Boston's pen has been a bust, and tonight it will be there undoing.

Tampa to celebrate on the Fenway infield after tonight's 9 innings.

Take the underdog Rays in Game Five.

3♦ TAMPA BAY

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Drew Gordon

Florida State -11 at N.C. STATE 

Tempting to take the home dog here, I know, but fight the urge because Florida State will blow the doors off of this NC State team tonight and here's why:

First of all, while some would argue that the 'Noles are primed for a letdown after huge wins over Colorado and especially at rival Miami-Florida, I disagree. Perhaps, if they weren't coming off a bye, you could argue they wouldn't be focused in this spot. But because of the extra week and a very tough ACC slate coming up, you know damn well the Seminoles cannot afford a slip up.

What we've seen from this Florida State team over their last two games is the real deal, as superior team speed on both sides of the ball and up-and-coming talent in QB Ponder, have led to some impressive efforts. NC State meanwhile, is coming off a game where they allowed a mind-boggling 578 total yards to Boston College... So how exactly do you expect the Wolfpack to slow an FSU offense averaging almost 40 ppg?! In fact, I'd argue the 'Noles are just starting to hit their stride on offense, which is scary considering what they did to a very good Hurricanes defense two weeks ago.

Let's not downplay the edge Florida State has on defense, as the Wolfpack offense has looked a lot more like a pack of puppies this season, averaging just 19 ppg on 275 yards of total offense. True, they've had a lot of injuries to contend with, but that's hardly the reason they scored only 10 points against South Florida or just 9 points at Clemson! They've been better of late, and should be well-prepared coming off the bye, BUT that still doesn't account for overall edge in speed FSU carries in this contest.

Bottom line, this will be NC State's toughest home game thus far this season, and with both teams coming off a bye, the difference comes down to talent, and there's no question who has the edge there... The Seminoles, plain and simple. In the end, Seminoles team speed on both sides of the ball makes life a living nightmare for QB Russell Wilson and company, while Ponder goes to town on a Wolfpack defense that's gotten shredded all season!

Take Florida State comfortably over NC State in this college football match up.

2♦ FLORIDA STATE

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Sports Gambling Hotline

BYU at TCU

Big Mountain West showdown tonight in Fort Worth, and we say to play the OVER when BYU takes on TCU.

On the surface this one may look like a defensive slugfest, as BYU enters having recorded a pair of shutouts in their 6 wins this season, and they are allowing an average of just over 10 points per contest. TCU can boast holding 5 of their 7 opponents to just 7 points or fewer, while their average allowence per game is just over 13 ppg!

Still, we believe we are going to reach the total of tonight's game with relative ease, as the last 3 times these schools have met, they have combined for 49, 48, and 101 points respectively.

BYU has played OVER the posted total in 6 of their last 7 Thursday night games, and we like this one to also slip OVER the posted price before it is all said and done.

Play on the OVER.

1♦ OVER

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Bobby Maxwell

Florida State -11 at N.C. STATE

The Seminoles had a week off after a big win over rival Miami two weeks ago, winning 41-39 as a one-point road 'dog. They've found their offense and will continue to score tonight at N.C. State.

Florida scored the first 24 points against Miami and if the Seminoles would have avoided their four turnovers, this game would have been a blowout. They put up 442 yards and had 283 rushing yards on the ground and doubled Miami's time of possession.

NC State has last Saturday off after suffering its second straight home loss two weeks ago, falling 38-31 to Boston College. But the Wolfpack defense was pathetic, giving up 578 yards as Boston College QB Chris Crane throwing for 428 yards and two TDs. Now this team has to face a Florida State offense just starting to find its groove.

Florida State won last year's matchup 27-10 but just failed as an 18-point underdog. Look for the Seminoles to deliver a big offensive show tonight and win this one going away. Play Florida State.

3♦ FLORIDA STATE

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JEFF BENTON

For Thursday we’ll look for the BYU-TCU game to stay UNDER the posted total.

Obviously, both of these teams can light up a scoreboard – BYU averages 37.8 points per game; the Horned Frogs put up 33.7. However, BYU scored a season-low 21 last week against New Mexico, while TCU was held to 13 on Saturday. In fact, both teams are on 3-0 “under” streaks right now.

But more than that, both squads have vastly underrated defenses. Since giving up four touchdowns and 27 points at Washington on Sept. 6, the Cougars have allowed a total of 17 points in four games, and the two TDs they’ve surrendered during this stretch were completely meaningless fourth-quarter scores in a 34-14 win at Utah State (BYU led 34-0). Meanwhile, aside from one bad game at then-second-ranked Oklahoma (35 points), the Horned Frogs have given up a grand total of 45 points (six TDs, one FG).

Also, as we all know, the key to any defense’s success is its ability to stop the run. Well, nobody has done that better through the first seven weeks of the season than TCU, which yields a nation-low 19.1 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, BYU is allowing 117.8 rushing ypg, but just 3.2 yards per carry.

Finally, when you consider that this is expected to be close contest, you have to believe that both coaches’ game plans will be conservative, with an emphasis on ball security (one bad mistake can conceivably cost either team the game). Throw in these trends – the under is 8-1 in TCU’s last nine lined home games, 4-1 in its last five Mountain West contests, 4-1 in BYU’s last five Mountain West affairs and 11-4 in BYU’s last 15 on grass – and I’ll actually be surprised if either team scores more than 21 points.

3♦ BYU-TCU UNDER THE TOTAL

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MATT RIVERS

For Thursday take the home dog Wolfpack!

Florida State did just have a nice road victory against Miami but Bobby Bowden's team is still far from being worthy of laying double digits like this on the road. The Seminoles still have issues at Quarterback and are not the team we have come to know year in and year out.

Nc State is not one of the stronger teams in the ACC and may actually be the worst team in the conference. But we all know what happens in these weekday night games as inferior teams comes to play in the national tv spotlight and many times win games like this outright.

Russell Wilson and the 'Pack were just competitive in that cover against Boston College and a month ago downed what was a red hot East Carolina squad outright. The upside is not all that at all but with a rowdy home crowd under the lights there is definitely enough for a competitive game here.

FSU is 4-1 and have won two in a row but do not be fooled as the athleticism is far from being all that. Beating Western Carolina and Chattanooga is equivalent to two High School wins and downing a mediocre Colorado team at home is okay but nothing more. The 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest proved how Bobby Bowden's team is very very average and I really do not see much better than that today.

More than likely we are looking at another solid night game in the ACC where the home dog comes to play and stays in this thing from beginning to end witht he potential for an upset victory.

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LT Profits

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Under 9.0

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have now gone Over in three straight games, but the only Under in this series came in Game 1 with Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound for Boston, and we look for Dice-K to continue that dominance here, keying the Under.

Matsuzaka was brilliant in the series opener, tossing seven scoreless innings while allowing just four hits with nine strikeouts. He has now allowed three runs or less in all four of his starts vs. Tampa Bay this season, allowing a total of only 17 hits in 22 innings with an impressive 26 strikeouts.

Do not forget that Dice-K is now 19-3 in the playoffs and regular season combined with a fantastic 2.86 ERA, and he has now allowed three earned runs or less in eight consecutive starts. We look for him to come up big as the Red Sox try to fight off elimination here.

Now Scott Kazmir has been very inconsistent for the Rays over the last month, but we actually look for the good Kazmir to show up tonight. After all, the Rays are doing everything well right now, so why should tonight be any different?

Besides, the troubles that Kazmir has had vs. the Red Sox have oddly all come at home, as he has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last four starts at Fenway Park. Throw in the fine Tampa Bay bullpen and look for a safe Under in Game 5.

Pick: Rays, Red Sox Under 9

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DUNKEL INDEX

Florida State at NC State
The Seminoles have rediscovered their offense in back-to-back wins over Miami and Colorado, and look to take advantage of an NC State team that is just 6-9 ATS at home over the last three seasons.  FSU is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 16.  Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-11).   

Game 301-302: Florida State at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 98.622; NC State 82.339
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 16; 54
Vegas Line: Florida State by 11; 48
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-11); Over

Game 303-304: BYU at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 107.656; TCU 102.134
Dunkel Line: BYU by 5 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Pick; 46
Dunkel Pick: BYU; Under


MLB

Tampa Bay at Boston
The Rays have outscored the Bosox 22-5 over the last two games and will look to wrap up the series tonight.  Tampa Bay is the underdog pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored straight up by 1/2 a run.  Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145).   

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.183; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.876
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145); Over


NHL

Dallas at St. Louis
The Stars won their first game of the season last night, but run into a St. Louis team that has won two of its first three and is 3-1-0 against Dallas at home over the last three seasons.  The Blues are the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has St. Louis favored by 1 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110). 

Game 51-52: New Jersey at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.240; Atlanta 10.835
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-145); Over

Game 53-54: NY Islanders at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.873; Tampa Bay 10.750
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+130); Over

Game 55-56: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.877; Pittsburgh 11.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Over

Game 57-58: Minnesota at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.750; Florida 12.062
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Over

Game 59-60: Vancouver at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.350; Detroit 12.989
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Over

Game 61-62: Dallas at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.475; St. Louis 12.075
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Under

Game 63-64: Philadelphia at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.995; Colorado 10.882
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Over

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