Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Texas vs. Oklahoma
Play: Texas +7

You notice how everyone and their brother is on Oklahoma on Saturday and yet the line keeps dropping? Well that means that smart money is on Texas, and that doesn't really surprise me since I'm on them pretty hot and heavy as well. Colt McCoy and his crew have flown under the radar all year while Sam Bradford and the Sooners have bolted to the top of the polls. Remember when Stoops arrived and everyone was covering the fact that Oklahoma was burying Texas in the Red River Shootout? Well those days are long gone, Texas has won 2 out of 3 straight up and has covered the spread the last three years. Don't fall into this trap. Sure Oklahoma is probably a better team, but by 7 points on a neutral field? No way, this game goes down to the wire.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dave Price

Colorado vs. Kansas Kansas
1 Unit on Kansas -13.5

After a major scare at Iowa State last week, I like the Jayhawks to run up the score on the Buffs. The Jayhawks are 9-1 straight up and ATS at Memorial Stadium in last 10 contests with the Big 12 North and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 in the home chalk role. Colorado is just 5-14 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and the defense is starting to break down against better competition. The Buffs have allowed 39 and 38 point respectively to Texas and Florida State the past two weeks in a pair of blowout defeats. With a lot of injuries piling up, it looks like it's going to be a tough second half of the season for Colorado. Lay the number here.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

Tulane vs. UTEP UTEP
1 Unit on UTEP -4.5

We'll side with the more explosive offense at home in this one. UTEP has won two of the last three meetings between these two teams and has been favored in all three. The two wins have come by 24 and 14 points respectively in 2005 and 2006. Last year's upset loss at Tulane puts the Miners in a revenge spot here. First off, Tulane is 1-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992, losing these games by 17.3 ppg on average. Tulane is also 7-18 ATS against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992,losing to these teams by 18.9 ppg on average. The Green Wave are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Lay the points.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Martin

Bowling Green vs. Akron Bowling Green
1 Unit on Bowling Green Pk

When I take a look at the strength of schedule to this point between Bowling Green and Akron, it makes for an easy choice to take the Falcons this Saturday. Bowling Green has fought tough despite having a brutal schedule to start the season. BGSU opened the season with a 27-17 win at Pittsburgh. Their next true test was a 7-20 setback at Boise State, which for any of you who know how well the Broncos play on the Blue Turf, it makes it easy for you to understand how great of a defensive performance the Falcons had to put together to hold Boise to a mere 20 points. Then a 45-16 road win at Wyoming really shows the kind of strength and fortitude this Bowling Green team really has this season. Bowling Green has played three tough road games, coming away with a 2-1 record. This road game Saturday at Akron shouldn’t be a problem for the Falcons to overcome. Bowling Green beat Akron 44-20 at home last season, and they have what it takes to turn around and pick up the big road win in 2008, especially with 17 starters back from last year’s squad. Bowling Green is now 11-3 ATS in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Bowling Green as a pick 'em.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Black Widow Sports

Arizona State vs. USC
1* Arizona State +28

Arizona State gives USC a much tougher test than this line indicates Saturday. The Sun Devils are showing their best value of the season considering they enter this one on a 3-game losing streak. Linesmakers have been forced to adjust the line more than they usually would in this spot, and we’re going to take advantage of it as Saturday’s free play. Arizona State fell by a final of 21-28 in their last visit to the Coliseum in 2006. The Sun Devils were a 19-point underdog. The Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Trojans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in October. Arizona State has the passing game that can give the Trojans fits. The Sun Devils are throwing for 270 yards per game and completing 64% of their passes in the process. Arizona State has the ability to play catch up incase they do get behind early. Both starting QB’s are questionable in this one, which gives Arizona State the edge considering Mark Sanchez is almost certainly not going to start for the Trojans Saturday. Take Arizona State and the points.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matt Foust

West Virginia -23.5

Greg Robinson’s beleaguered Syracuse Orange hit the road this week to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown. West Virginia is also suffering through a disappointing season considering their pre-season expectations, but regardless of the Mountaineers ills, we are going with them minus the 23.5 this Saturday.

The Orange are just 1-4 in Robinson’s fourth year and the way their schedule shapes up, it is likely that they may not win another game. Syracuse has exactly one team strength and that is their ability to run the ball. Unfortunately for them, that will not get you very far. Consider that the ‘Cuse are being out gained by an average of 173.8 yards per game and you get the picture.

West Virginia is a particularly awful match-up for Syracuse in that their strength is running the ball (226.6 rushing yards per game) and the Orange would have trouble stopping sloth from averaging four yards per carry (206 rushing yards per game allowed). Also, the Mountaineers are 3-0 at home and have won by an average of 19.33 points per game against competition better than Syracuse.

Note: WVU quarterback Pat White went out of last week’s game versus Rutgers but he is set to start this weekend.

Things to consider: The favorite in this series is 12-4 ATS since 1992.

Pick: Take West Virginia -23.5 

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Minnesota at Illinois
Pick: Minnesota +12.5

The Gophers are perhaps one of the most improved teams in the country. Last year their lone win came early against Miami Ohio, but this year they are 5-1 and Bowl worthy with a win here. Adam Weber has been big, having thrown for 1,428 yards with eight TDs and just two INTs. The running game has accounted for 14 TDs already as well - a far cry from last year. Illinois is nowhere near where they were last year, but they are still a pretty good team. The offense has been generating points, but for this team to be giving double-digits to a competent offense makes no sense. The Illini are surrendering just about 30 ppg, so Minnesota is going to get its points here. Don't forget they put up 21 on the road vs Ohio State. The Gophers defense is vastly better as well. After giving up 30+ last year in all but one game, they have allowed 30 just once this season. Too many points here, and I'll take the Gophers to hang tough.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

ROCKBOXSPORTS.COM

3 STARS: TEXAS TECH -20.5
Red Raiders are very quietly ranked #7 in the nation and craving some attention. Last time Nebraska went to Lubbock they were a 7 point dog and didn't quite manage to cover (final score: Tech 70- Nebraska 10). And this year's Tech team is better than that one. In fact, it's by far the most talented of the Mike Leach era. And the most balanced. They run, they throw, they win big. Tech QB Graham Harrell knows exactly what his in-conference rival Chase Daniel did against Nebraska last week (52-17) and he'll be strongly motivated to exceed it. Nebraska D is giving up 376 yards a game, 248 in the air, and their QB Ganz has struggled with decision making. Huskers struggled on offense last week against Mizzou and now they go on the road for the first time this season. Texas Tech has national title aspirations and they'll pad their resume here with a big win over Nebraska.

3 STARS: USC -28
ASU has all kinds of problems. They've failed to cover 8 of their last 9, have become completely one-dimensional on offense, and may be without QB Rudy Carpenter this weekend to boot. Even if Carpenter plays, he doesn't stand a chance. ASU's complete inability to run the ball means the Trojans can tee off on whoever plays QB. Once USC builds a lead, this one will get out of hand quickly.

2 STARS: FLORIDA -6.5
We love LSU's talent, but this may not be a good spot for them with QB Lee making his second career start in the swamp. Trash talking Tigers caught Tebow's attention this week and we suspect he's primed for a big game. Urban Meyer and company will respond to their upset loss to Mississippi by identifying their problems, fixing them, and taking it all out on LSU. We love a favorite that is motivated not only to win but to pile it on if given the chance. Florida fits the bill this weekend.

2 STARS: NORTHWESTERN +1.5
Michigan State is getting all the hype- and the national top-25 ranking- as the darkhorse team in the Big 10 while the 5-0 Wildcats get no love from the polls. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald gets to play "we get no respect" card in spades this weekend- and the Wildcats are good enough to cash in.

1 STAR: OKLAHOMA -6.5; SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5; OREGON -19.5; NEW MEXICO +23.5;
OREGON ST. -30; MIAMI FLA. -17; SO. MISS +10.5; FLA INT. -2;

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

SPORTS ADVISORS

(5) Texas (5-0 SU and ATS) vs. (1) Oklahoma (5-0, 4-0 ATS), in Dallas

The marquee game of the week comes from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, where the Longhorns and Sooners enter their annual Red River Shootout ranked in the Top 5 for the first time since 2004.

Texas hasn’t been challenged this season, including last week when it went to Colorado and rolled to a 38-14 win, cashing as a 12-point road chalk. It was the lowest point total of the season for the Longhorns, who are averaging 47.2 points and 471.8 total yards per game. The ‘Horns defense isn’t too shabby either, ranking fourth in Division I-A in points allowed (11.4 per game).

Oklahoma went to Baylor last week and opened Big 12 play by routing the Bears 49-17 as a 25-point road chalk. The Sooners are racking up 49.6 points and 540 total yards per game, and their lowest point total this season came in a 35-10 win over TCU two weeks ago, but they still covered as 18½-point favorites in that contest.

Longhorns QB Colt McCoy is 25-6 in his career, and this season the junior has completed 79.2 percent of his throws for 1,280 yards, 16 TDs and just three INTs. His opposition is Oklahoma sophomore Sam Bradford, who has hit on 72.6 percent of his passes for 1,665 yards, 18 TDs and also just three INTs.

Oklahoma beat Texas 28-21 last season behind three TD passes from Bradford, but the Longhorns covered as 12-point ‘dogs. Texas leads this rivalry 57-40-5 SU and has gotten the cash in the last three after Oklahoma had covered in the previous five meetings. The last time both teams came in ranked in the Top 5 was in 2004, and the Sooners prevailed 12-0 as 7½-point favorites. The straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 years in this rivalry.

Texas is on ATS runs of 6-0 overall, 5-1 in neutral-site games, 11-5 in October and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Bob Stoops’ Sooners are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.

For Texas, the over is on runs of 10-4 following a straight-up win, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 in Big 12 action. Oklahoma is 4-1 “over” in its last five overall, but the under is 14-4-1 in the Sooners’ last 19 conference games and 6-2 in its last eight October contests. Lastly, the under has been the play in the Red River Shootout the last two seasons after the over went 5-2 the previous seven years.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


(4) LSU (4-0, 1-2 ATS) at (11) Florida (4-1 SU and ATS)

The SEC’s game of the week comes from the Swamp in Gainesville, Fla., where the Gators look to knock LSU from the ranks of the unbeaten and avenge a bitter loss from last season.

Florida rebounded from a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss by routing Arkansas 38-7 last week, barely covering as a 26-point road favorite thanks to a 48-yard touchdown run with just over a minute to play. The Gators rolled up 514 total yards, including 278 on the ground, while the defense held Arkansas to 361 yards and forced two turnovers.

LSU, which is coming off a bye, opened SEC play with consecutive wins over Auburn (26-21 on the road) and Mississippi State (34-24 at home), though the Tigers failed to cover in the latter contest as a hefty 24-point chalk. LSU has won six straight games and is 23-2 SU in its last 25 going back to 2006.

Florida blew a trio of 10-point leads at LSU last year, falling 28-24 as an eight-point road underdog. LSU, which trailed the entire game, converted a pair of fourth-down plays on its final drive, scoring on a 2-yard run with just over a minute to play to steal the victory. The Tigers had a 36-24 edge in time of possession and finished with 391 total yards (247 rushing), while the defense gave up 314 yards (156 rushing) and forced two critical fourth-quarter turnovers to aid in the rally.

The home team has won each of the last three meetings, but the Gators are 3-0 ATS during this run and 7-2 ATS in the past nine against LSU. Going back to 2002, the underdog is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the visitor is 12-4 ATS in the past 16. Finally, three of the last four clashes were decided by four points or less, all LSU victories.

Both of these teams have very similar stats on both sides of the ball. Florida is averaging 35.5 points, 427.2 total yards and 206.5 rushing yards per game, while LSU is putting up 36 points, 390.2 total yards and 178.6 rushing yards per outing. Defensively, the Gators are yielding 11.4 points and 265 total yards per game (99.6 rushing ypg), while the Tigers are giving up 15.2 points and 260.8 total yards per game (69 rushing ypg).

Florida QB Tim Tebow has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 1,025 passing yards, with an 8-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Tigers QBs Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee have combined for 861 passing yards, with six TDs and four INTs.

LSU is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall, 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 on the highway and 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 SEC contests. Meanwhile, Florida is on ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 12-5 on grass, 8-3 versus winning teams and 4-1 in league play.

The under is 10-2 in the last 12 Florida-LSU battles, including 5-0 in the last five in Gainesville. However, last year’s contest topped the total, and the over is on runs of 9-4 for Florida overall, 9-3 for Florida at home, 6-2 for Florida in SEC play, 10-2 for LSU overall, 4-0 for LSU on the road and 8-1 for LSU against conference foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA


(23) Michigan State (5-1, 3-2 ATS) at Northwestern (5-0, 2-2 ATS)

Two teams riding five-game winning streaks square off in a Big Ten showdown when the Spartans come calling at Ryan Field in Evanston, Ill., to take on Northwestern.

Michigan State has rattled off five straight victories (3-2 ATS) since a season-opening 38-31 loss at Cal as a 6½-point road ‘dog. The Spartans’ defense stepped up with a key fourth-down stop in last week’s 16-13 home win over Iowa, but they failed to cash as six-point favorites. QB Brian Hoyer has thrown for 1,146 yards, but his four touchdown throws have been offset by three INTs.

Northwestern hasn’t been on the field since Sept. 27, when it upset Iowa 22-17 as a 9½-point road underdog. Last time they were at home, the Wildcats beat Ohio 16-8, but they failed to cash as a 10½-point chalk.

The Wildcats scored a wild 48-41 overtime win last season at Michigan State, pulling off the upset as 15½-point ‘dogs. Northwestern has cashed in the last four series clashes and six of the last nine, all as an underdog. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two, and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 clashes.

The Spartans are on ATS slides of 8-17 in Big Ten contests, 2-7 in October and 1-5 following a bye week, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 on the road, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 when coming off a non-cover. Northwestern is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after an off week, but just 6-21 ATS in its last 27 after a straight-up win and 0-4 ATS in its last four after an ATS win.

For Michigan State, the over is on runs of 35-16-1 on the highway, 5-1 after a bye week, 5-1 in October and 5-1 in Big Ten clashes. Meanwhile, for the Wildcats, the under is on runs of 7-2 overall, 4-1 in conference action and 4-0 at home. Also, the last two meetings in this rivalry have topped the total following a three-game under streak.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN


South Carolina (4-2, 3-2 ATS) at Kentucky (4-1, 3-1 ATS)

Steve Spurrier takes his Gamecocks into Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky., looking for an eighth straight victory over Kentucky in this SEC matchup.

South Carolina is riding a three-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) after upsetting Mississippi 31-24 as a two-point road underdog a week ago. QB Chris Smelley threw for a career-high 327 yards and three TD passes in the victory, and the ‘Cocks defense held the Rebels to only three second-half points. South Carolina’s defense allows just 14.7 points and 245 yards per game, the latter figure ranking second in the SEC.

Kentucky’s defense has been even stingier this season, allowing just 7.8 points and 114.4 rushing yards per game. However, the Wildcats had their four-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 17-14 loss at Alabama, though they easily got the cash as 15½-point underdogs. They allowed 282 rushing yards to the Crimson Tide, but 78 of those came on a first-quarter touchdown run by Alabama RB Glen Coffee.

South Carolina has won eight in a row against Kentucky dating to 2000 (6-2 ATS), including last year’s 38-23 home win as a 4½-point favorite. The ‘Cocks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS during that stretch.

Spurrier’s boys are on ATS streaks of 10-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 8-3 following a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread slides of 3-7-1 overall, 1-5-1 in SEC action and 1-4 on the highway. Kentucky is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six at home but 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning record.

For the Gamecocks, the under is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 25-10-1 on the road and 20-9 on the highway against teams with a winning home mark. It’s also been all unders for the Wildcats lately, including 4-0 overall, 4-1 in SEC games and 4-0 on grass. Finally, the under has been the play in the last four meetings between these two in Kentucky.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER


(13) Vanderbilt (5-0 SU and ATS) at Mississippi State (1-4, 2-2 ATS)

The Commodores will try to keep their perfect record intact when they travel to Starkville for an SEC showdown with Mississippi State.

Vanderbilt has been winning the close ones this season, with three of their five victories coming by seven points or less, including last week’s 14-13 home win over Auburn as a 4½-point ‘dog. In their last roadie, the Commodores scored a 23-17 win in Mississippi as seven-point pups despite getting outgained by 183 yards. Vandy is unbeaten despite averaging just 278.8 total yards of offense per game, including just 96 passing ypg.

Mississippi State has dropped three straight (2-1 ATS) and four of five this season. In their most recent contest two weeks ago, the Bulldogs hung tough at LSU, losing 34-24 and easily cashing as 24-point underdogs. Freshman QB Tyson Lee threw for 175 yards and one TD in his first start at LSU, as the Bulldogs continued to struggle on offense, averaging just 16.2 ppg.

These schools haven’t met since 2004, when Vandy rolled to a 31-13 home win as 11½-point favorites. However, Mississippi State is 4-1 SU and ATS in this series dating back to 1989, including 3-0 SU and ATS at home, and the favorite cashed in all five. Also, the straight-up winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Commodores are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 in SEC contests and 4-0 following a spread-cover. The Bulldogs are on ATS slides of 5-12 at home, 3-7-1 in October contests and 17-35-2 following a straight-up loss.

It’s been all about the under for both these squads lately, with Vandy on under runs of 12-4-1 overall, 5-0 in October, 10-1-1 in SEC contests and 6-2-1 following a spread-cover. Meanwhile Mississippi State’s under streaks include 7-3 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 coming off a bye week. Finally, the under was the play in the last two clashes between these squads.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI STATE and UNDER


Purdue (2-3, 1-3 ATS) at (12) Ohio State (5-1, 1-4 ATS)

Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor will try to remain perfect as the Buckeyes’ starter as Ohio State goes for its fourth straight victory when it hosts Purdue at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.

Pryor is a perfect 3-0 (1-2 ATS) since taking the reins of the offense back on Sept. 20, including last week’s come-from-behind 20-17 victory at Wisconsin, with the Buckeyes getting their first spread-cover of the season as a one-point road chalk. The youngster scored on an 11-yard TD run with 1:08 remaining to cap a 12-play, 80-yard drive. Pryor has thrown for 440 yards, five TDs and one INT while rushing for 312 yards and four TDs.

Purdue has dropped its last two games, including a 20-6 decision at home to Penn State last Saturday, pushing as a 14-point home ‘dog. In their only road game this season, the Boilermakers got pounded at Notre Dame 38-21 as a two-point underdog. QB Curtis Painter is off to a slow start this year, completing just 57.6 percent of his throws for five TDs and five INTs. The senior was benched in the loss to Penn State, and he is 0-9 SU against ranked teams in his career.

The Buckeyes have won eight of the last 10 overall against Purdue (6-4 ATS), and the Boilermakers haven’t won in Ohio Stadium since 1988. Last season, Ohio State cruised to a 23-7 victory as a seven-point road chalk, ending a streak of three straight spread-covers by Purdue. The straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in this Big Ten rivalry dating back to 1994.

Purdue is mired in ATS funks of 1-5-1 overall, 3-14-1 in October games, 8-20-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-17-1 following a straight-up loss. Meanwhile Ohio State is in the midst of ATS slumps of 1-5 overall, 0-4 at home and 1-5 after a straight-up win, but the Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight October outings.

For the Boilermakers, the under is on runs of 35-16 in Big Ten play, 19-7 in October and 20-8-1 against teams with a winning record. For Ohio State, the under runs include 4-1 overall, 8-1 against teams with a losing record and 7-2 in October. Finally, the under has been the play in the last four meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE:  OHIO STATE and UNDER


(17) Oklahoma State (5-0, 4-0 ATS) at (3) Missouri (5-0, 3-1 ATS)

Two of the nation’s most high-powered offenses square off in Columbia, Mo., when Oklahoma State arrives to face Missouri in what figures to be a fast-paced Big 12 shootout.

The Tigers hammered Nebraska 52-17 as a 10½-point road favorite last week, scoring all 52 points in the first three quarters and getting six TDs and a field goal in eight possessions. Missouri ranks third nationally in total offense (568.8 ypg) and second in scoring (53.4 ppg), and the Tigers have had 17 touchdown drives that have taken less than two minutes. Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel has completed 77.3 percent of his passes for 1,665 yards, with 15 TDs and just one INT.

The Cowboys got a 56-28 home win over Texas A&M a week ago, cashing as a 26-point favorite. Oklahoma State’s offense has been just as sharp as Missouri’s, ranking third in the nation in scoring (52.6 ppg), sixth in total offense (530.2 ypg) and third in rushing offense (315.2 ypg). The Cowboys have had 13 TD drives that lasted two minutes or less, and sophomore RB Kendall Hunter is averaging 147.6 ypg, while QB Zac Robinson has thrown for 1,038 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs.

Missouri has won five of the last six meetings with the Cowboys, including a 38-31 victory in their last meeting in 2005, cashing as a 5½-point favorite. The Tigers are on a 7-2 SU and ATS roll against OSU, but the Cowboys scored a 20-17 upset as a three-point underdog the last time they went to Columbia. Lastly, the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings in the rivalry, dating back to 1992.

The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 in October. Meanwhile, Missouri is on a plethora of positive ATS trends, including 4-1 overall, 13-5 at home, 8-3 in Big 12 games, 4-1 in October and 10-4 following a SU victory.

For Oklahoma State, the over is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 31-14 in conference games, 23-9 following an ATS win, 10-2 in October and 5-1 when facing a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, for the Tigers, the over is on runs of 13-6 overall, 5-2 in Big 12 affairs and 10-4 following a straight-up win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER


Tennessee (2-3 SU and ATS) at (10) Georgia (4-1, 2-2 ATS)

Tennessee figures to have a tough time getting its struggling offense on track when it heads south for an SEC showdown against defensive-minded Georgia between the hedges.

The Volunteers barely escaped lowly Northern Illinois 13-9 last week, never threatening to cover as a 16½-point home favorite. Tennessee, which is 0-2 SU and ATS in SEC play, has scored a total of 31 points in its last three games and is averaging just 18 points and 317.6 total yards per game for the season.

Georgia has had two weeks to lick its wounds following an ugly 41-30 home loss to Alabama as a 6½-point home favorite back on Sept. 27. The Bulldogs, who had surrendered a total of 55 points in winning their first four games of the season, fell behind the Tide 31-0 at halftime and were never in the contest. Despite the sorry performance against ‘Bama, Georgia’s defense is allowing just 19.2 points and 286.8 total yards per game, including 62.4 rushing ypg.

Tennessee has thumped the Bulldogs the last two years, including a 35-14 home rout as a one-point home underdog in 2007. Prior to that contest, the visitor had won and covered four straight meetings in this rivalry. Finally, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of the last 10 clashes dating to 1998, and four of the last five meetings have been double-digit blowouts.

Prior to the loss to Alabama, Georgia had been on a 6-0-1 ATS run dating to last November, including four straight covers at home. The ‘Dogs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 coming off a bye week, but 2-7 ATS in their last nine in October. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall, but 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven against a winning team and 14-8-1 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these schools in Georgia. Also, the under is on streaks for Tennessee of 4-0 overall, 6-1 in SEC play and 11-5-1 in October. However, the over is 6-2 in the Vols’ last eight on the road and 5-2 in Georgia’s last seven at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Notre Dame (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at (22) North Carolina (4-1, 3-1 ATS)

Two of the most surprising teams in college football hook up for a non-conference meeting in Chapel Hill, N.C., where the Tar Heels host Notre Dame.

The Irish jumped out to a 28-7 lead last Saturday against Stanford, then held on for a 28-21 victory, barely cashing as a 6½-point home chalk. Notre Dame, which is on a 6-1 roll (5-2 ATS) going back to last year, had a 430-343 edge in total offense against the Cardinal and has scored 28 points or more in three of its last four games.

North Carolina pummeled Connecticut 38-12 as a 7½-point home favorite last week, despite getting outgained 378-263 and possessing the ball for less than 24 minutes. The Tar Heels had three interceptions, one of which was returned for a score, and also returned a blocked punt for a touchdown.

These teams met in South Bend, Ind., in 2006, and Notre Dame rolled 45-26, but came up short as a 26-point home favorite.

North Carolina is on pointspread streaks 7-3 at home, 9-3 against winning teams, 5-1 in non-conference action and 4-1 in October. Meanwhile, the Irish are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 October contests, but otherwise are mired in pointspread funks of 12-21-1 overall, 5-9 as a ‘dog and 2-5 against the ACC.

For Notre Dame, the under is on runs of 12-5 overall, 7-0 on the road, 6-0 against the ACC and 5-2 in October. Also, the under is 4-1 in UNC’s last five at Chapel Hill, but the Heels have topped the total in five of their last seven games overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nebraska (3-2, 2-3 ATS) at (7) Texas Tech (5-0, 2-1 ATS)

Nebraska’s defense, which has surrendered 87 points the last two weeks at home, now hits the road for the first time this season to face another explosive offense in this Big 12 battle against Texas Tech.

The Cornhuskers became the latest team to get torched by Chase Daniel and Missouri, yielding 462 total yards (201 on the ground) in last week’s 52-17 home defeat as a 10½-point home underdog. Nebraska, which lost 35-30 to Virginia Tech at home prior to the Missouri contest, gave up all 52 points last week in the first three quarters.

Texas Tech opened Big 12 play in dominating fashion, crushing Kansas State 58-28 and easily covering as a seven-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are among six Big 12 teams ranked in the Top 7 in the nation in scoring offense, putting up 48.2 points per game and tallying at least 35 in all five contests. Texas Tech is also second nationally in total offense (583.4 ypg) and tops in the country in passing yards (2,195), thanks to the play of QB Graham Harrell (66.7 completion percentage, 2,027 yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs).

The last time Nebraska visited Lubbock, Texas, it gave up 523 yards and got trashed 70-10 as a 7½-point road underdog in 2004. The teams had a rematch a year later – the most recent meeting – in Lincoln, Neb., and the Red Raiders won 34-31, but the Huskers got the cash as a five-point underdog. Tech is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings dating to 1996.

Nebraska is in ATS ruts of 4-12 overall, 1-7-1 on the highway, 2-8 against Big 12 foes, 2-10 versus winning teams, 1-4 as a road underdog and 1-5 in October. Conversely, the Red Raiders are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home contests, 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven on artificial turf and 36-17 ATS in their last 53 October contests.

The under is on streaks of 5-2 for the Huskers on the road, 4-1 for the Huskers in October, 8-3 for Texas Tech overall, 5-0 for Texas Tech at home, 6-2 for Texas Tech in conference and 4-1 for Texas Tech in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and UNDER


(6) Penn State (6-0, 3-1-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (3-2, 2-3 ATS)

For the second straight week, the Big Ten’s marquee game comes from Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis., with the Badgers hoping for a better outcome when they host sixth-ranked Penn State.

Wisconsin followed up a crushing 27-25 loss at Michigan two weeks ago – the Badgers blew a 19-0 halftime lead – with another heartbreaking defeat last Saturday, falling 20-17 to Oho State as a one-point home underdog. Wisconsin got a touchdown with 6½ minutes to play to take a 17-13 lead, but Ohio State marched down the field and punched in the winning score with just over a minute to play.

Penn State had its most sloppy game offensively last week at Purdue, but the defense stepped up and carried the team to a 20-6 victory, pushing as a 14-point favorite. The Nittany Lions, who averaged 49.8 points in their first five contests, produced just two touchdowns despite a 422-241 advantage in total offense. Joe Paterno’s troops have won seven straight games going back to last December’s bowl victory over Texas A&M, and Penn State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 contests.

This series has belonged to the home team, which has won four straight meetings both SU and ATS and is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven. The favorite has cashed in each of the last five head-to-head tussles, and the SU winner has covered in each of the last nine battles since 1997. During that nine-game stretch, Penn State is 1-3 SU and ATS in Madison.

Last week’s loss to Ohio State aside, the Badgers are still 17-8 ATS in their last 25 home games. However, they’re only 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall and 2-8 in their last 10 against Big Ten foes. Meanwhile, Penn State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against winning teams and 0-5-1 ATS in its last six in league play.

The last four meetings between these rivals have stayed under the total. The under is also on runs of 15-6 for Penn State in conference action, 6-2 for Penn State in October and 14-6 for Wisconsin when facing opponents with a winning record.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER


ALCS

Boston (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

After stealing Game 1 of the American League Championship Series in Tampa Bay on Friday night, the Red Sox will hand the ball to playoff stud Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.12 ERA) as this best-of-7 set continues at Tropicana Field. The Rays will counter with Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.48).

Boston, which went 1-8 at Tropicana Field in the regular season, got an outstanding pitching performance by Daisuke Matsuzaka and three relievers in last night’s 2-0 victory. Although they finished three games under .500 on the road in the regular season, the Red Sox are unbeaten in three postseason road games so far. Also, Terry Francona’s club is riding hot streaks of 23-7 in the playoffs, 9-3 in ALCS contests, 6-0 in road playoff games, 29-14 against southpaw starters and 21-9 when Beckett hurls on the highway.

Despite Friday’s defeat, Tampa Bay is still 55-18 in its last 73 home games. The Rays are also on runs of 4-2 overall, 6-1 against A.L. East rivals, 40-19 versus right-handed starters and 14-6 on Saturdays. Additionally, with Kazmir on the hill, Tampa is on streaks of 20-7 overall, 20-7 at home and 13-3 on Saturday.

These rivals have now squared off 19 times this year, with Tampa Bay holding a slight 10-9 edge. The home team won the first 13 meetings this year, but the visitor is 4-2 in the last six.

Beckett was rock-solid for the Red Sox in last year’s World Series run, going 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA, and he’s 6-2 with a 1.73 ERA in 11 career postseason outings (10 starts). However, he struggled in his first playoff start this year, giving up four runs on nine hits in five innings at home Sunday, getting a no-decision in his team’s 5-4, 12-inning loss to the Angels.

Boston has lost four straight games that Beckett has started, with the right-hander yielding eight runs on 16 hits in his last two outings covering 11 innings. On the bright side, he was solid away from Fenway Park this year, going 7-5 with 2.85 ERA. In two regular-season starts at Tropicana Field, Beckett allowed just thee runs (two earned) in 15 innings (1.20 ERA), but Boston lost both games by scores of 4-2 and 2-1. For his career, Beckett is 5-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 10 starts against the Rays (1-2, 1.93 ERA in four starts at the Trop).

Kazmir pitched in and out of trouble throughout his first career playoff start against the White Sox eight days ago, scattering eight hits and two walks in 5 1/3 innings, but he gave up only two runs in earning a 6-2 home victory. The veteran southpaw is 9-2, 2.93 in 15 home starts this season, 13 of which the Rays have won.

Kazmir really struggled in four starts against Boston this year, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. That includes a 13-5 home loss on Sept. 15, when Kazmir lasted just three innings after surrendering nine runs (all earned) on six hits – including four home runs. Kazmir gave up six home runs in 18 innings against Boston this year, and he’s 6-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 21 career outings against the Sox.

With Kazmir pitching, the over is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-0 against the A.L. East and 5-0 against Boston. Conversely, with Beckett on the hill, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 5-2 on Saturdays and 4-1 versus Tampa Bay.

The under is 5-1-1 in Boston’s last seven overall, but the over is 5-2-2 in the team’s last nine ALCS games, 10-5 in its last 15 on artificial turf, 4-0 in the last four against lefty starters and 5-0-1 in the last six on Saturday. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay sports over runs of 19-8 at home, 20-7 against righty starters and 15-8 versus division foes.

As for this rivalry, the total has alternated in each of the last 11 meetings, with Game 1 of this series easily staying under the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Carlo Campanella

Tennessee at Georgia

A victory would put Tennessee (2-3) at the even mark, however, they've struggled this season with their only wins coming against UAB and Northen Illinois. They now must play on the road against a ranked Georgia (4-1) team that's averaging 34.5 points per game. Tennessee has failed to win on the road this year and Georgia looks for revenge from a 14-35 loss in Tennessee last season. They'll get the revenge as Georgia comes off their first loss of the year- a 30-41 loss at Alabama- we find them at 9-2 ATS after allowing 37 points or more.

Play on: Georgia

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

VEGAS EXPERTS

East Carolina at Virginia

East Carolina (3-2) opened the season with consecutive underdog wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, but since then it has been all downhill as they struggled to beat Tulane and then lost outright to both NC State and Houston. Off a bye, look for the Pirates to respond against Virginia, as we find ECU at 7-0 against the spread when coming off a SU loss by 14 or more as a favorite. Virginia was outscored 128-20 in its first three games vs. lined opponents.

Play on: East Carolina

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matt Foust

West Virginia -23.5

Greg Robinson’s beleaguered Syracuse Orange hit the road this week to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown. West Virginia is also suffering through a disappointing season considering their pre-season expectations, but regardless of the Mountaineers ills, we are going with them minus the 23.5 this Saturday.

The Orange are just 1-4 in Robinson’s fourth year and the way their schedule shapes up, it is likely that they may not win another game. Syracuse has exactly one team strength and that is their ability to run the ball. Unfortunately for them, that will not get you very far. Consider that the ‘Cuse are being out gained by an average of 173.8 yards per game and you get the picture.

West Virginia is a particularly awful match-up for Syracuse in that their strength is running the ball (226.6 rushing yards per game) and the Orange would have trouble stopping sloth from averaging four yards per carry (206 rushing yards per game allowed). Also, the Mountaineers are 3-0 at home and have won by an average of 19.33 points per game against competition better than Syracuse.

Note: WVU quarterback Pat White went out of last week’s game versus Rutgers but he is set to start this weekend.

Things to consider: The favorite in this series is 12-4 ATS since 1992.

Pick: Take West Virginia -23.5


New Mexico St @ Nevada Reno Over 67.5

This Saturday the Nevada Wolf Pack is set to host fellow WAC member, the New Mexico State Aggies. Given the history of this match-up and the current state of these two respective teams, we are going with the over 67.5.

Nevada, while just 3-2 on the year, is producing points in bunches and also allowing them at a rather healthy clip as well. The Wolf Pack has scored exactly 49 points in all three of their wins (their two losses came against Texas Tech and Missouri) and they figure to get close to that number or exceed it this week versus the Aggies. They also figure to let the Aggies visit the end zone in regular intervals considering that they are allowing 31.6 points per game.

New Mexico State is allowing 368 yards per game, 222.8 of which are coming on the ground. This plays right into Nevada’s game plan and strength as they are producing an astounding 306.6 rushing yards per game. Conversely, the Wolf Pack have a great deal of difficulty stopping the pass (332.2 passing yards allowed per game), and it just so happens that is what the Aggies do really well (321.8 yards per game through the air).

These two have averaged a total of 71 points per game in their last seven meetings and they have scored over 67.5 in six of those seven games.

Pick: Take the Over 67.5

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Michael Alexander

Texas vs. Oklahoma    
Play:Oklahoma -6.5

In one of the biggest games of the day a pair of unbeatens meet in the Big-12 when Texas travels to take on Oklahoma. Texas is a perfect 5-0 on the season averaging a potent 47.2 points per game on 472 yards of total offense. Their defense has been just as impressive yielding just 11.4 points per game on 296 yards of total offense. Texas has also been kind to their backers covering all five contests.

Like the Longhorns, the Sooners come in a perfect 5-0 on the season and average an NCAAF high 49.6 points per game on an unbelievable 540 yards of total offense. Their defense hasn't been as impressive as Texas' but still allows only 13.8 points per game while yielding 256 yards of offense. Like Texas, Oklahoma is perfect ATS on the season.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: TEXAS is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. TEXAS coach Brown is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

Oklahoma is loaded this season and really lacks any weakness while Texas has really no top running back to help QB McCoy in this one. It's the better team, Oklahoma, at home giving up less than a TD. I'm taking the Sooners in this one.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Lenny Del Genio

Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois
Prediction: Northern Illinois

What a terrible group this Miami Ohio team is. The RedHawks are 0-4 vs. FBS competition this year with the average loss coming by 18.5 PPG. Last week, they lost by 18 at home to a Temple team that came in off four straight losses. This week they are getting a Northern Illinois team that is getting to play just its second home game of the season. The Huskies are off to just a 2-3 start, but note that the three losses came by a combined 11 points and all were on the road. Last week, they hung tough in Knoxville losing to Tennessee by just a 13-9 margin. Prior to that, NIU has scored 26 points or higher in each of its four previous games. Miami has scored more than 20 points just once this season and that was against FCS Charleston Southern.

Making matters worse for the RedHawks is that they have dropped three straight in this series, including a 28-25 home loss two years ago. Since 1992, Northern Illinois has been coming off BB road games 22 times. They have covered 16 times their next time out. They have also covered all four lined games this season. Make it five in a row on Saturday.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Ryan

Tulane at UTEP
Prediction: Tulane

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tulane ? AiS shows a 70% probability that Tulane will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and a 51% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-10 ATS for 80% since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games and are off an upset loss as a double digit favorite. Making this system apply to just home favorites increases the record to an impressive 24-3 ATS for 89% since 2002. UTEP head coach Price is not in good position to win this game ATS. Note the is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 40% to 49% in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Tulane.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Air Force at San Diego St.
Prediction: Air Force

Air Force is 7-0 ATS their last 7 Conference games and they are 7-0 ATS after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their last game. The Falcons are 12-1 ATS after rushing for over 200 yards in their last game and they are 10-2 ATS their last 12 games overall. San Diego St has been out gained on the playing field by 484 yards in their 4 lined games this year and they are 2-7 ATS at home vs. winning teams. In last years 55-23 loss to the Falcons the Aztecs allowed 569 rushing yards. More of the same this Saturday. PLAY ON AIR FORCE -

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jimmy The Moose

New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers

The Rangers have already played 3 games this season and tonight's will be the Flyers first game of the season. New York should be a tired team after playing two games in Europe last weekend and having played again last night. Don't be surprised to see the Rangers start their backup goalie tonight. The Flyers are a well-rested team and will take advantage of the weary Rangers in their home and season opener. The Flyers have won the last two meetings between the clubs and will take this one too. Play on the Philadelphia Flyers -.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nelly

Baylor - over Iowa State

The Cyclones could be in a tough spot this week after blowing a 20-point lead against Kansas last week. Iowa State has not won a road game S/U the last two seasons and the numbers are not promising on either side of the ball. Baylor could not stop the Oklahoma passing game last week but the Bears nearly gained 200 rushing yards in the game and the running game has been strong this season with QB Griffin creating a tough match-up for opposing defenses. Emotionally this seems like a very tough spot for Iowa State while Baylor will be fully motivated here.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jim Feist

Penn St / Wisconsin
Take: Under

Reason: This looks like an old fashioned Big 10 slugfest, with two fierce defenses and lots of running. Penn State (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) has been rolling, with a balanced offense and a fierce defense. Penn State faced a strong Purdue offense last week, but the defense dominated in a 20-6 win, outgaining Purdue 422 yards to 241. Wisconsin (3-2 SU/1-3 ATS) doesn't have a good QB in shaky Allan Evridge. Evridge started six games as a redshirt freshman at Kansas State in 2005. They are still a run-first offense because of a strong offensive line and talented running back junior P.J. Hill. They just scored 17 points against Ohio State and this one looks like an old fashioned, Big 10 defensive duel. Play Penn State/Wisconsin under the total.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208360 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44363
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
275723
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.0
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3466
Newest User:
Eleazer L. Erandio
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
1630

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com