Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dr. Bob

Troy State (-3.5) 34 FLORIDA ATL. 27

Troy has a score to settle with Florida Atlantic, who upset the Trojans in the final game of the 2007 season as a 16 point dog to win the Sun Belt title and keep Troy from going to a bowl game. Revenge by itself is no reason to side with a team, but Troy is also a better team based on what each team has shown so far. Florida Atlantic has played better than their average score of 15-31 suggests, as the Owls have only been out-gained 5.7 yards per play to 5.9 yppl by a schedule that is tougher than average. I rate Florida Atlantic as average offensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively on a national scale while also being slightly worse than average in special teams. While those numbers give FAU an advantage over the rest of the Sun Belt teams, they do not give the Owls an edge over a Troy State team that averaged 5.3 yppl and allowed 5.3 yppl in 3 games against Division 1A teams despite facing very good teams Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road (the other game was against a decent Mid Tenn State team that beat Maryland and just beat FAU last week). Troy has been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively this season while being very good in special teams. Troy’s defense took a hit with the loss of All-Sun Belt Conference DE Kenny Mainor and the Owls were worse than average defensively at Oklahoma State (after adjusting for how good the Cowboys’ offense is and that the game was on the road). However, Florida Atlantic’s star DE Michael Hancock, who has 3 of the team’s 6 sacks this season, is listed as doubtful for this game. After adjusting for the injuries I get Troy State by 6 ½ points in a higher than expected scoring game. I’ll lean with Troy State minus the points and the Over (51 ½ points) in this game.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

James Patrick Sports

Troy vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Florida Atlantic

The Owls stole the Sun Belt Title last year from under Troy’s noses with a win at Troy that snapped a four game loss streak to the Trojans. Trouble for the Men of Troy is Florida Atlantic has 18 starters back and they are a solid 10-4 ATS in conference play. This is also the Trojans third road game in four weeks and we’ll back the home team Owls for those of you that give a HOOT!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Northcoast

Marquee

Florida Atlantic +4

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Beat Your Bookie

100 - Fla. Atlantic

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

ATS FINANCIAL

3 units Troy St. / Fla Atlantic Over 51

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections

500K SUN BELT CONFERENCE CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR
Troy -3.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Troy -3.5 over FAU

The Owls are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 conf home games and 2-11 ATS at home vs teams scoring 31 or more ppg, while Troy is 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Quite simply Troy is the better team here that has played the better schedule and is used to playing on National TV. Troy checks in with the 21st rated offense overall and they are 32nd in scoring, putting up 32.5 ppg. That offense should have a field day vs an FAU team that is allowing 417.6 ypg overall (101st nationally) and 30.8 ppg (ranked 100th). The Owls are equally generous vs both the pass and run as they are ranked 92nd vs the pass and 98th vs the run. The Owl offense returned 10 starters from last years group but they have scored 16 ppg less and 74 ypg less than last years squad. Overall this offense is ranked 78th overall, 102nd in rushing and 117th in scoring. The Troy Trojans have faced Ohio State and Oklahoma State in the last two weeks, yet this defense is still ranked 46th overall, 17th vs the pass and 66th in points allowed. The Trojans have allowed 331 ypg overall, but if you take out the Oklahoma State game then they have allowed just 237 ypg in their other 3. It's no shame in giving up a ton a yards to the Cowboys as they would pick apart any defense this year. The Ohio State is a telling game for the Trojans as they outgained the Buckeyes by 6 yards and held them to just 2 of 11 on 3rd downs. This defense is pretty darned good, but FAU should be able to break out of their funk and score some points here. The only problem is that the strong Troy offense should get plenty of points on their own to outscore FAU by at least double digits.

1 UNIT PLAY

2 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Troy +2.5, Troy/ FAU Over 45

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Oscarxena Sports

Troy/Florida Atlantic Over 52 1/2 -1.10 (3 Unit Play)

Florida Atlantic +4 1/2 -1.10 (3 Unit Play)


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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

ATS Lock Club

3 units Florida Atlantic +3.5

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