Monday Service Plays

Monday Service Plays

LT Profits

Tampa Bay Rays +115

Gavin Floyd had a great breakout season for the Chicago White Sox, but he appeared to break down late in the year before turning in a nice effort in his last start, and Andy Sonnanstine has had success vs. the White Sox this year.

Floyd had just one Quality Start in five starts before his clutch outing vs. the Tigers in the make-up game the day after the regular season was supposed to end, when he allowed just one earned run in six innings.

Keep in mind however that the Tigers were not exactly enthused about playing that contest, as the last thing they wanted to do was extend a very disappointing season by one extra day. Thus, Floyd may have been given a false sense of security coming in to this start, and even with that fine outing, he still has a high 5.00 ERA with a terrible 1.50 WHIP over his last three outings.

Conversely, Sonnanstine has a nice 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his last three starts, and although it is not always pretty, he does almost always give the Rays a chance to win, as they are 20-12 in all of his starts this year. He has enjoyed pitching against the White Sox too, allowing three earned runs or less in three of his four starts against them since last season including a Complete Game three-hit shutout this year.

Finally, the Rays have the far superior bullpen, ranking second in the American League during the regular year with a 3.45 pen ERA, and we look for Sonnanstine and that great pen to bring the White Sox season to an end here.

Pick: Rays +115

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: White Sox/Rays UNDER

The White Sox and Rays meet in Game 4 of their AL Division Series in the Windy City this evening when Gavin Floyd matches serves with Andy Sonnanstine. With Sonnanstine in good KW form with 6 walks and 28 strikeouts in his last six road starts and Floyd in commanding KW form with 3 walks and 20 strikeouts in his last four starting efforts, look for the pitchers to dominate here this evening.

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Craig Trapp

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints    
Play:Over 46.5

Don't think that the NO Saint can stop the run or the Vikings can stop the pass. Not sure that either team has to come away from there strenths. Could be huge scoring game 56 is the total my staff thinks will be for tonight!

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Big Al McMordie

TB v Chicago
Pick: Rays

At 5:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox. Game 4 for the Rays will rest squarely on the shoulders of 25-year-old righthanded starter Andy Sonnanstine. Although this is Sonnanstine's first ever postseason appearance, the youngster has shown great poise throughout the regular season, so don't expect him to go out there and act like a nervous kid. Another thing that should help boost Sonnanstine's confidence is his previous performances vs. the White Sox. In four lifetime starts vs. the southsiders, Sonnanstine is 1-0 with a 2.96 ERA. As much as the Rays would like to win this series in front of their home crowd back in St. Pete, they have more important things to worry about and would relish the time off that would come by winning this game, especially considering the long games that their rival Red Sox are involved in with the Angels. A few days of rest would allow Tampa to return home, relax a bit, and reload for either of those worthy opponents. So look for them to put the nail in Chicago's coffin this afternoon. Take the Rays.

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Bobby Maxwell

Tampa Bay at CHICAGO WHITE SOX -125 

Chicago has already won four elimination games this season. Tonight they'll make it five in a row and send this series back to Tampa Bay for a Game 5 in this first-round divisional series.

The White Sox had to win the last day of the regular season against the Indians to force a reason to play a makeup game against the Tigers on Monday. They shut down the Tigers with tonight's starter, Gavin Floyd (17-8, 3.84 ERA), on the hill in order to force a one-game playoff with the Twins on the next day. They blanked the Twins 1-0 to get into this playoff series with the Rays and staved off elimination Sunday with a 5-3 win.

So four times already they've had their backs against the wall and they've won them all. The White Sox are 6-1 in their last seven home playoff games and they're 9-2 in their last 11 playoff games anywhere. Chicago has been dominant in front of the home fans, going 43-18 at U.S. Cellular Field and they are 40-14 at home against teams with a losing road record.

Floyd went 10-3 at home this season with a 3.55 ERA and was 5-2 in his last nine starts of the season. Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38) is on the hill for the Rays and he hasn't gotten a win since August 18.

Look for Chicago to play with the urgency needed to win this elimination game. The Rays are waiting to get back home and play Game 5. Go with the White Sox in this one.

3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Los Angeles at BOSTON 

Tonight from a chilly Fenway Park, we will play the UNDER between the Halos and the Sox.

In reality, last night's game should have easily stayed LOW had it not been for the Hunter-Kendrick faux pas on Ellsbury's blooper thay fell in between the pair, and plated 3 big Boston runs!

Lackey, and Lester were rock solid in Game One, as Lackey worked 7 innings, while allowing just 2 runs, and Lester worked 7 scoreless for the win.

Lackey is 7-2 on the road this year with an ERA just over 3, while Lest went 11-1 at home this season with an ERA just over 2.

We have to believe the bats will be silenced once again, and this game will stay UNDER the posted price.

Play on the UNDER.

1♦ UNDER

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Karl Garrett

Minnesota at NEW ORLEANS

Very interested in playing the OVER in this Vikings-Saints game, as ALL 5 Monday night games played this season have sailed OVER the posted price. Included, is the Minnesota-Green Bay opening nighter from Lambeau.

New Orleans has gone 3-0-1 OVER in their 4 games played this season, and they have been able to score 24 points or more in ALL 4 of their games thus far. It should also be noted that the Saints defense is allowing an average of 25 ppg against them through their first 4 contests.

Both of Minnesota's road games this year have eclipsed the posted price, and they are on an overall 6-4-1 OVER run since the end of last season.

New Orleans is on a long-term 16-6-1 OVER clip their last 23 games.

Sure, this is a high total, but all evidence points towards another OVER under the Monday night lights.

2♦ OVER

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THE GOLD SHEET - NFL

*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24
CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4 ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson (420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise. Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. (05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)


POINTWISE

Minnesota 23 - NEW ORLEANS 20 - About time for the Vikes to right their listing ship. Four TOs in loss to Tennessee, 3 of which were turned into TDs. Still have the scintillating Peterson (420 RYs so far), along with one of the league's better "D"s (7th overall). The Saints have ridden the arm of Brees once more, as he is throwing for 336 ypg, with 8 TDs, altho he has been picked off 4 times. NewOrleans ranks 28th overland, so won't do much vs Vikes' 3rd best run "D". The Saints are 9-17 ATS home off a SU/ATS win, 1-11 ATS home vs an opponent off a RG, & 0-10 ATS as an Oct HF vs a foe off a SU/ATS loss.

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Dave Cokin

LA Angels / BOS Red Sox
Take LA Angels

The Angels finally beat the Red Sox in a playoff game Sunday night and that means they're basically in on a free pass tonight for Game Four. Boston certainly has the capability of ending this right here but the Halos will now have some legit confidence that they can send this back to Anaheim for a fifth game. I think the Angels would be worth a play tonight.

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Jim Feist

TB Rays / CHW White Sox
Take Over

The White Sox beat Tampa Bay 5-3 Sunday, to stay alive in the series. "At least we play tomorrow," White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said. "Like I say, we played against the wall before and came out of it." Tampa Bay goes with their No. 5 starter here in Andy Sonnanstine, a guy who was 6-5 with a 4.35 ERA on the road. The White Sox are very familiar with him, as they hit .272 off Sonnanstine in 21 innings this season. Chicago is a good offensive park and both teams used quality relievers yesterday. Chicago is 7-0 over the total the last 7 start made by starter Gavin Floyd. A good spot for a high scoring tilt. Play the Rays/White Sox Game 4 over the total.

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Kevin O’Neill

Vikings (+3) over @Saints

The Vikings entered the season with high hopes, and you would think that their season is now teetering on the brink with a 1-3 record. Yet they still have hope on the season, as they sit only a game out of the two-way 2-2 tie for first place that the Packers and Bears find themselves in. With a loss already to the Packers, things look a bit worse than that, but things are hardly grim. But things would likely start to look that way with another loss.That makes this a must-win for the Purple.Minnesota comes off a tough loss in Tennessee. The Vikes defense played terrific ball, holding the Titans to a mere 4.0 yards per play, while the offense gained 4.9 yards per play. But when you turn the ball over four times and allow yourself to be sacked four times that makes it difficult to get things done. Those four turnovers turned into 21 points for the Titans, who scored TD’s on drives of 33, 11, and 6 yards. And Bernard Berrian dropped a long pass that would have been a TD. And the offense committed five penalties in the third quarter, taking them out of good situations. Some of these problems were caused by the opponent. The Titans are one of the few teams in the league that can be as physical as the Vikings on the line of scrimmage.But while the Titans are a strong ballclub, a lot of these wounds were self-inflicted. One of the reasons that we went against the Saints last Sunday was their receiver injuries. With the Niners allowing opponents only 5 yards per pass attempt heading into the game, we figured that would be a positive matchup. Alas, the Saints lit up the Saints secondary for a full 10 yards per pass attempt. Frisco clearly hadn’t game planned for Robert Meachem, up until now a draft bust for the Saints, who in his first start caught five balls for 204 (204!!) yards. A lack of pressure on Drew Brees had more than a little to do with Meachem’s ability to get behind the secondary. We expect a better plan from the Vikings. And while a Saints backup corps that helped them overcome being without five offensive starters on Sunday performed admirably, replacements sometimes let down the following week. So although the passing game looks to favor the Saints, that may not be the case here.Simply think that the more physical Vikes can beat up the Saints, and expect that their running game will be able to gash New Orleans, while the defense line proves impenetrable as well. The weaknesses they showed against brutal Tennessee won’t exist here. Statistically, that translates into us taking points with a defense that allows 4.8 yards per play against a team allowing 5.9 yards per play, which is a winning play, especially when you consider the Vikes stats have been earned against a tough schedule of nothing but playoff contenders. Vikes by 3.

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DR BOB

NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) 27 Minnesota 23

Drew Brees is playing at an incredible level, as he’s averaged 8.8 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. It may be tough for Brees to maintain that high level of play, but he should post good numbers against a Vikings’ defense that is once again very good defending the run (3.1 ypr allowed) but every mediocre against the pass (6.2 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota’s offense has been better since Gus Frerotte was inserted at quarterback in week 3, as the Vikings have averaged 5.0 yards per play the last two games against good defensive teams Carolina and Tennessee, who would combine to allow just 4.6 yppl to an average team. I expect Adrian Peterson to have a big game running against a soft Saints’ defensive front that’s allowed 5.4 ypr this season (to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defensive team). New Orleans has been average in pass defense, but Frerotte has been better than average in his two games, throwing for 5.8 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. My math model favors New Orleans by 6 points and the Saints apply to a very good 61-21-2 ATS Monday night situation. Minnesota, however, applies to a 55-16-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 56-16-5 ATS game 5 angle. Tough call here, but I’ll lean slightly with New Orleans.

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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS

Although the results haven’t shown in the point totals that the Vikings have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC Brad Childress’ team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.Play: Minnesota +3

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Vegas Experts

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox

Tampa Bay simply is not as good on the road compared to how they play at home. That was proven with a 5-3 loss in Game Three. Going back to the "dog days" of the franchise, this team has now lost 131 times in its last 189 tries as a road underdog. Gavin Floyd appears to be an excellent choice to toe the rubber for the White Sox, who have won 14 of Floyd's 17 home starts this season as well as 9 of his 10 daytime outings.

Play on: Chicago

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Sportsbettingstats

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints -3.5

The Vikings come into this Monday night game after losing last week to the Tennessee Titans 30-17, while the Saints beat the San Francisco 49'ers 31-17 to get back to .500. This game is HUGE for both teams, as they both are trailing in their divisions and the way it looks the Wild Card team will come from the NFC East, at least at this point in the season, so each team needs to start winning to compete in their respective divisions. The Vikings are led by QB Gus Frerotte (470 yds 1 TD 2 INT) and his main targets are WR's Bobby Wade (13 rec 152) and Bernard Berrian (11 rec 195 yds). The Vikings rushing attack is led by RB Adrian Peterson (420 yds 3 TD). The Saints are led by QB Drew Brees (1343 yds 8 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are RB Reggie Bush (31 rec 257 yds 2 TD) and Devery Henderson (6 rec 213 yds 1 TD). The Saints rushing attack is led by Bush (183 yds 1 TD), but he is better passing catches out of the backfield. The rushing game of the Saints recently got a lift, as Deuce McAllister (83 yds 1 TD) came back from a knee injury.

Staff Pick: This game features two of the more exciting players in the NFL in Peterson and Bush, who both can take it to the house every time they touch the ball. Since Frerotte was named the starter the Vikings have opened up their passing game more, which is not good for the Saints who rank 27th on defense and are especially weak against the pass. The Vikings rank 6th on defense and are especially strong against the run and their secondary will have to step it up in this game playing a Saints offense that is averaging just over 327 yards passing per game. The keys for this game are if Bush and McAllister can pick up some yards on the ground, so the Vikings D does not only focus on the Saints passing game and if the Saints D can stop Peterson. Minnesota has their hand on the panic button, as with a loss tonight they will be 1-4. New Orleans needs a win to keep up with the 4-1 Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. This game should be a close one, but New Orleans is at home and Brees is the better QB. Peterson will have a big game but it will not be enough as the Saints will win and cover the spread.

Saints 31 Vikings 24

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Drew Gordon

Tampa Bay at CHI. WHITE SOX -125

Some teams just play better with their backs against the wall, and the White Sox are a perfect example, beating Cleveland, Detroit, and Minnesota in 3 straight home games just to make it here, and then the Rays at home 5-3 Sunday to stave off elimination! Bet against the White Sox in this spot at your own peril, as they've proven time and again they will not go down at US Cellular without a fight.

Some bettors might be reticent to back a rookie in this spot, but not this rookie, as Gavin Floyd has been a gamer all season, going 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA. He got his most important win of the season in his last start, locking down the Tigers to just 1 earned on 5 hits over 6 innings in "win or go home" contest! Expect more of the same tonight, as he's been great at US Cellular this season, going 10-3, 3.55 ERA!

Opposing Floyd is the Rays Andy Sonnanstine, who admittingly has solid numbers against the White Sox this season, going 1-0 with a 2.96 ERA in 4 starts. However, the last time he saw them at the Cell, he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits over 6 2/3 innings August 24th... Not exactly great, as the White Sox went on to win 6-5 in extra innings. Not only that, but Sonnanstine numbers on the highway have declined as the season has progressed, allowing 4 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 road starts!

Finally, the one thing the White Sox definately do better at home is swing the lumber, specifically against righties, averaging a hearty 5.8 runs per game against them (as compared to just 4.1 on the road), batting a solid .277 in the process! Look for the White Sox batting order, led by red-hot A.J. Pierzynski, to build off yesterday's win with another strong showing in another "must-win" today at the Cell.

Take the Chicago White Sox behind Floyd over Tampa Bay and Sonnanstine in this ALDS match up.

3♦ CHI. WHITE SOX

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Sixth Sense

NEW ORLEANS –3 Minnesota 46.5

The Vikings were beaten pretty handily last week at Tennessee but out gained Tennessee 4.9yppl to 4.0yppl and committed three more turnovers than Tennessee. The Titans scored 24 of their 30 points on short drives of 33 yards or less. NO defeated San Francisco easily last week and out gained the 49ers 7.0yppl to 5.1yppl, including throwing for 10.4yps but allowing SF to rush for 4.8ypr. Minnesota averages 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allows 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. The Saints average just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but 8.6yps against 6.5yps for a total of 6.5yps against 5.5yps. They allow 5.2ypr against 4.7ypr and 5.9yppl against 5.7yppl overall. The Saints qualify in a home momentum situation if they are favored by three or less, which is 80-34-6. Minnesota qualifies in my turnover table, which is 379-238-18. They also qualify in a game five situation, which is 42-9-3. The Vikings also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 644-521-42, including a subset, which is 516-396-30. NO qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 109-46-8 and plays against NO here. Numbers favor NO by six points before accounting for the situations and predict about 44 points. I’ll take a shot with the Vikings. NO throws the ball well and, although Minnesota’s numbers are above average against the pass, they tend to struggle against the pass but I’m looking for their running game to control the game enough. The Vikings should be able to move the ball on the ground against a porous Saints defense. MINNESOTA 24 NEW ORLEANS 20

3% MINNESOTA +3

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Fairway Jay

20* Big Drive Vikings

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Brandon Lang

15 Dime - Saints

FREE - Saints/Vikings Over

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