Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Mr A

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers ended their seven game losing streak against the Phillies with a 4-1 win on Saturday, but could have a problem staying alive today against Phillies’ Joe Blanton. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts and the Phillies have  won his last 4 starts. Milwaukee will send their big-game pitcher to the mound, veteran Joe Blanton. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 10.12 ERA in his last three starts and has struggle against the Phillies, 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA this season and a career 3-6 with a 6.20 ERA. The Brewers have lost Suppan's last 4 starts versus the Phillies. Take Philadelphia with Blanton on the hill!

Philadelphia Phillies -115

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Tampa Bay at DENVER -3

Its bounce back time for the Broncos after their embarassing 33-19 loss at Kansas City last week. Its no secret Denver's defense is below average at best, but they looked like garbage last week, and a match up against Brian Griese led Bucs squad is just what the doctor ordered to get them back on track!

First, while the Broncos offense stalled last week, you can expect Jay Cutler and company to rebound strong today at home, where they average almost 37 ppg on the season! It was clear that the Broncos took the Chiefs lightly and made them pay for, but there's no way that happens again this week with one of the stronger teams in the NFC coming to town.

Second, while Tampa's defense has been nasty, they've not been nearly as effective on the road, allowing 24 ppg on 421 yards of total offense (over 100 yards more than their seasonal average)! If New Orleans beat them early, and Chicago almost beat them two weeks ago, what makes you think the Bucs can travel into the altitude at Denver and slow this Broncos offense?

Finally, did you know the Bucs are just 1-9 ATS over their last 10 on the road against the AFC! Also, the fact Joey Galloway is expected to be out with a foot injury is a major boon for a struggling Denver secondary, which would've had trouble matching up with the veteran WR. Without someone to stretch the field, the Bucs offense becomes even more vanilla with Griese at the helm.

Bottom line, after an impressive win over Green Bay last week, coupled with Denver's loss to Kansas City, I can understand why bettors would be tempted to jump on the Bucs this afternoon. But if you've seen them play against the AFC on the road, then you know the only play here is on the Broncos to bounce back strong today at home!

Take Denver over Tampa Bay in afternoon NFL action.

2♦ DENVER


New England at SAN FRANCISCO +3½

Intriguing match up here, mostly because the public is all over the Patriots, when I wouldn't touch them with a ten-foot pole. Can we lay to rest Belichek's asenine assumption that its the "system" and not the quarterback?! People need to stop betting on them like they're the 2007 Patriots, and start realizing this is a Matt Cassell-led offense coupled with a good, but not great defense.

True, they're coming off a bye, where Belichek can be incredibly crafty, but let's not get too carried away. They scored 13 points at home two weeks ago, were unable to get Moss involved, and allowed 38 points to a piss-poor 'Phins offense at home... Sorry Pats-backers, but you don't fix all that in one extra week.

Also, while the 49ers did lose on the road last week, its clear their offense is starting to gel around QB J.T. O'Sullivan. He may not be a top-tier signal caller, but he knows Martz' offense extremely well, and if he can avoid a sack now and again, he'd be rock-solid. Note, for those of you doubting O'Sullivan, did you know he has a higher QB rating than Matt Cassell (90 vs 87 rating)!

Finally, how did the Dolphins beat the Patriots? By gashing them with Ronnie Brown, a physical between the tackles runner. Sound familiar? Look for the 49ers to use Frank Gore in many of the same ways, out of the backfield, catching passes, etc. If the Dolphins can rack up 216 rushing yards on 36 carries (6 yards per carry), then so can San Fran, which averages a solid 4.7 yards per rush this season. In the end, the 49ers regroup at home, keeping this game competitive throughout.

Take San Francisco plus the points over New England in this NFL match up.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Matt Foust

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos Over 46.0

Today the Denver Broncos will try to overcome last week’s road loss to the Chiefs by matching up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mile High Stadium. Although the Bucs are traditionally known for their defense, we are going to go with the over 46 in this AFC/NFC battle.

Last week the Broncos failed to score at least 33 points for the first time in 2008. Despite putting just 19 on the board at Arrowhead Stadium, Denver is still averaging 33 points per game this year. The only reason Jay Cutler and company did not crest the 30 point mark in KC was due to an opportunistic Chiefs defense which created four turnovers. Still, the Broncos piled up 446 yards of offense while possessing the ball a little over 26 minutes.

The Buccaneers are still known for their defensive prowess but they have some weapons on offense and Jon Gruden knows how to use them. Tampa Bay is averaging over 25 points per game this season and they have shown an ability to move the ball both with the pass and the run. Last Sunday against Green Bay, the Bucs put up almost 350 yards of offense despite turning the ball over three times.

Denver has proven that they can move the ball on anyone. Granted, they have not exactly faced a murder’s row of defensive units, but their numbers are jaw dropping nonetheless. The Bucs will be the toughest defense that Denver’s faced thus far, but their biggest weakness is the Broncos biggest strength (passing game). Denver will get its share, and so will Tampa. The yardage Denver’s porous defense has given up is just as staggering as their offensive production. The Broncos are yielding over 400 yards per game and Brian Griese should have little trouble moving the offense down the field.

Pick: Take the OVER 46

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

FRANK ROSENTHAL

MLB
971 PHILLY-110 SB
975 RAYS+130 SB
977 ANGELS+160 SB

NFL - WEEK 5
405 COLTS-3 SB+
410 DOLPHINS+6.5 SB
415 BEARS-3 SB+
422 BRONCOS-3 -120 SB
423 PATS-3 SB
427 BENGALS+17 SB+
UNDER 45 SB
430 JAGS-4.5 SB
OVER 36 SB+

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

DAVE MALINSKY

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
PICK:4* KANSAS CITY/CAROLINA Under

We did not expect to see 38 as a “win” number on game day in this one, but now that it is hanging on in enough key precincts it is time to go here, in one of our favorite Under settings – when both coaches are playing to our purposes.

Let’s explain that. John Fox is all about winning with fundamentals and defense, which means carefully managing game flows against weak opponents. The results are easy to see – the last 5+ seasons the Panthers have played Under at a 9-2 clip when favored by -7 or more. This one fits the bill perfectly, especially with Carolina having those major division showdowns with Tampa Bay and New Orleans immediately on deck. This is all about grinding away and avoiding the kind of mistakes that can put Kansas City in the game, as they dare the Chiefs to score on their defense. And while Larry Johnson is indeed a force, note that the Panthers have already faced LaDanian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner, not allowing any of that quartet to reach 100 yards or score a touchdown.

But if you are Herm Edwards you are pounding Johnson in the early stages of the game, even if there is limited success, because the tempo has to be kept slow. The Chiefs do not have the passing game to attack from behind, and because they are the weaker team overall the fewer snaps in the game the better chance they have of competing. Edwards knows this, and since becoming the Kansas City head man is 5-2 to the Under when an underdog of +7 or more.

We do not expect much pace here, and not a lot of efficiency. The Panthers have as many field goals as touchdowns, and without Jodan Gross and Jeff Otah in the OL may continue to struggle in the red zone. Meanwhile the Chiefs only have six touchdowns all season, and will be hard-pressed merely to get to the red zone, much less find touchdowns on the limited opportunities that they get.

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Triple Threat Sports

Play Over in the Texans/Colts game.

Houston has allowed 30 or more in each game this season, and allowed 38 and 28 to close the 2007 campaign. Indy getting healthier on offense, and will be without star Sanders on defense. Also, series is 6-0/7-1/8-2 to the Over the last five seasons.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

Arizona -1 over Buffalo

The Cardinals will be without their best receiver today and the Bills are 4-0. So does it make sense that Arizona is favored against the best team record wise in the NFL? I do give this team credit, but in the last two weeks they had to battle back hard to beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Buffalo will be without their top cornerback and possible Marcus Stroud. The Cardinals should play good home defense and score enough points in their system to win this game. Take Arizona

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Safestwagers

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

On the injury front, they are down to a 3rd string running back, have QB issues,and a depleted offensive  line.  Opposing D-Lines have consistently gotten into The Steelers backfield. Don't normally like to go with the consensus, but Pitt has more problems than just recent injuries.When the games really count the heart isn't there. They couldn't seem to lose when Tomlin took over, and then lost 4 of 5 to end last season. This year, their offense hasn't shown up for away games.Jacksonville can score, and their defense looked better last week than final score indicates.

TAKE JACKSONVILLE  -4.5 


Washington at Philadelphia

In this game we're going against the popular consensus.Most like Washington for the following reasons:
1)  Jason Campbell looks like a top NFL QB.
2) Campbell now knows how to step up in the pocket, and has zero turnovers.He has had to adjust to a different offensive scheme almost every year.From Auburn to coach Saunders and Coach Gibbs, and this year to Zorn's productive West Coast Offense.
3)  Washington looked sharp beating Dallas in last.
4)  Washington may have set a record by losing no starters from last year.

Philly:
1)  Philly should be 4-0 ATS, but gave away last weeks game, with bad late play calling and some  early disorganization on defense.
2)  It's early in the season, but this is a must game for The Eagles.While Washington's next 4 opponents have a combined record of 1 win and 10 losses !
3) This is 2nd away conference game for The Redskins after an emotional Dallas win.
4) Jason Taylor, and especially Shawn Springs are banged up.

TAKE THE EAGLES -6
                                                 

Minnesota at New Orleans

Many thought The Vikings would get close to The Super Bowl this year.Their running back is something special, but nothing else is.The team doesn't like the coach, and isn't playing to their potential.They are one-dimensional. At this point, it may not matter who they're playing.

TAKE NEW ORLEANS -3

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

ROCKBOXSPORTS.COM

2 STARS: ARIZONA -1

Arizona Coach Ken Wisenhunt's decision to stay on the east coast for consecutive road games in Washington and New York didn't turn out well as his team laid a big 'ole egg against the Jets. Arizona players talked openly about their extended east coast trip being a disaster and they have thoroughly enjoyed the return to home cookin' this week. This should come as no surprise when we consider that the Cards are 7-2 at home under Wisenhunt as opposed to 3-8 on the road. Pretty much night and day. At Rock Box Sports we love teams coming home off of blowout losses on the road. A fine example of this last week was the lowly KC Chiefs, coming home to Arrowhead to face division rival Denver after an embarrassing 38-14 loss at Atlanta. Result: KC wins outright as a double-digit dog. Teams in this position present a good wagering opportunity because of two factors. First, the public is down on them because of the recent poor performance and therefore the line presents maximum value. Second, these are professional athletes, folks. They do not like to be embarrassed and they tend to step up the following week in response. Thus, you have teams offering their most inspired performances in situations where the line offers the best possible value. We think this will be the case for the Cards this week, particularly for their defense which was thoroughly humiliated by Brett Favre. The Arizona D will come out angry this Sunday and if they have a great game in them, or even a good one, they will play it in this situation. Meanwhile, while the Bills are undefeated, they were essentially outplayed the last two weeks by Oakland and St. Louis, not exactly the best competition. The Bills face the additional problem of facing Arizona's potent passing attack with starting CB out for the game. This means that rookie Leodis McKelvin will be making his first career start against the talented Az receiving corps led by Larry Fitzgerald. Look for Fitzgerald and company to have a big day on offense while the Cardinal "D" should play well enough to help secure the win here.

1 STAR: TENNESSEE UNDER 33.5; SEATTLE UNDER 43.5; MIAMI +6.5, PHILADELPHIA -6.5; CAROLINA -9.5; SAN FRAN +3

BASEBALL SELECTIONS: 2 STARS: PHILLIES -115; WHITE SOX -145

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