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Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Brian Graves

Temple vs. Miami Ohio
Pick: Under 40

These are 2 fairly conservative teams that like to establish the run game and both have had trouble scoring. This total is fair and this will be a game played very quickly as the clock will just keep moving. Temple has scored only 6 points in their last 2 games, they'll pass that today, but this game stays close and stays low scoring. Maimi barely squeaks one out 16-10!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

O.C. Dooley

NAVY / AIR FORCE
Pick: Air Force -4

"1 UNIT" ODDSMAKERS INTANGIBLE

The reason why I am calling this an "oddsmakers intangible" is because they have in my opinion helped tip off this wager.  All visiting Navy has done is win ELEVEN IN A ROW against service academy rivals competing for the hallowed "commander in chief" trohy which they have walked away with each of the past five years.  Today they travel to Air Force and face a team that has actually been "outstatted" by more than 400 YARDS in the past two games combined.  Even though the line on this game has dropped, one has to wonder why the oddsmakers opened this game with Air Force as prohibitive 6-point favorite?!  One of the reasons is because Navy starting quarterback Kaipo Enhada (strained hamstring) is listed as questionable and obviously is NOT 100% healthy.  All Enhada did a week ago is rush for a pair of Navy first-half touchdowns, so his elusiveness is going to be sorely missed.  I will admit that Navy has won-and-covered FIVE in a row in this series, but those statistics were compiled with Paul Johnson as head coach.  In the offseason Johnson left the Middies for a more high profile position at Georgia Tech, so I predict that Navy will no longer be one of the nation's best ATS wagers, as was the case repeatedly under the Johnson regime.  Navy just happens to be in a classic "letdown" position on the heels of last week's huge upset of Wake Forest on the road.  Another key to this selection is that Air Force has had an EXTRA WEEK to prepare which is significant for the kind of tactical battle this will be.  Air Force's new head coach Troy Calhoun used to be with the NFL Denver Broncos as an assistant coach where he taught player the "zone blocking" schemes which opened the door for all running backs to see more daylight.  Air Force has a veteran offensive line that can five Falcon rusher plenty of daylight as tackle Keith Williams and guard Nick Charles are among the better players in the entire Mountain West Conference.  Air Force has successfully COVERED the spread at a recent 12-3 overall clip (6-0 ATS at HOME the past two seasons)!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jimmy Thompson

Auburn vs. Vandy   
Pick: Auburn -4

It's nice that the boys from Gameday have chosen Vanderbilt this weekend, but vandy isn't ready for this jump on the radar. Auburn is certainly in a prime spot for a letdown after having 2 tough home games against LSU and Tennessee, but they played so poorly in the 2nd half last week that we expect a big game from this week. one thing you know is that there defense will show up and we believe their running game will be big as well. Vandy will struggle with scoring and they'll give the ball a way a couple of times as well as Auburn win 27-13!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

PRO INFO SPORTS

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

NORTH TEXAS +6½ over Florida International

The Mean Green will look to grab their first victory of the season when they host the Golden Panthers Saturday night. Florida International got their first "W" this past weekend, thanks to a shocking 35-16 victory at Toledo. Since joining the Sun Belt Conference, the Panthers have struggled mightily, posting a 4-17 ledger in league action. As for North Texas, they have lost 4 games to obviously superior competition, including a 77-20 setback at Rice this past weekend.

The Golden Panthers are mired in their usual atrocious offensive play, as the team is producing less than 200 total ypg, which has led to less than 14 ppg. They have been unable to get anything going on the ground, posting just 84 ypg. The passing attack has also had trouble as quarterback Paul McCall has completed just 47.5 percent of his throws and has just one TD against five interceptions. The Panthers only collected 239 total yards and were outgained by more than 60 yards this past weekend against Toledo, but were able to take advantage of four Toledo turnovers.

On top of the struggles offensively, the defense for Florida International has been beaten and battered by opponents, allowing 380 total ypg, including 162 ypg via the run.

Much like their counterpart, the Mean Green have struggled offensively; however, they have been able to move the ball more, averaging 317 total ypg, which has led to a 14 ppg. Giovanni Vizza has taken the majority of the snaps under center and certainly has the talent to do some damage in Sun Belt play. He has managed four scores against three interceptions during the rugged non-conference play, and the team did rack up 412 total yards against Rice last week, including 155 yards on the ground, averaging a healthy 5.2 ypc.

North Texas has been horrible defensively against the high-powered attacks they've had to face in Kansas State, Tulsa, LSU, and Rics. The team surrendered 502 total yards in the embarrassing, 77-20 loss to Rice a week ago. The main problem came against the pass, as North Texas was torched for 328 yards and six touchdowns; however, they should fare much better against the Panthers pop-gun offense.

It will be the Mean Green that plays with more desperation here, as we look to play AGAINST a team off a major upset victory, such as FIU is.

Not only did this team have to come through with a super-human effort, odds are the early part of the week was spent celebrating. If the fans and news media are touting a big win and reliving the upset, it's tough to get these young kids off that cloud and focus on the next opponent in a short week's time. Meanwhile, the win gave their upcoming opponent bigger incentive and warning.

The Golden Panthers players and coaches didn't realize how the Toledo win would resonate on campus until they returned to campus in the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. A crowd of about 200 students waited to greet the team when the buses pulled up to campus following the charter flight back to Miami.

Now, the team will have a tough time focusing for this game and will experience the discomfort of being a sizeable road favorite. FIU has NEVER before in their short history been installed as even a small road favorite. In fact, they are 0-3 SU (-21 ppg) & 0-3 ATS (-25.2 ppg) as a favorite overall vs. all teams besides nearby rival Florida Atlantic, including 0-1 SU & ATS vs. North Texas.

This also gives us the opportunity to play AGAINST a weak team in the unfamiliar role of favorite. Sometimes a team that is used to losing will do something good enough to find themselves in the uncomfortable role of the favorite. This is tough for them to handle. The coach may not have had any difficulty getting them up for a game as an underdog, but when the team takes on the pressure of being expected to win, it can be too much for them.

The Panthers have also not fared well when going up against a team desperate for a victory as they are 0-6 SU (-19.5 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-19.1 ppg) vs. a sub-.500% opponent off 2 SU losses and not an underdog of more than 16 points.

We also have one of our better NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS active here revealing that after pulling off a major upset as an underdog of at least 2 TDs, road favorites of less than 3 TDs have been absolutely flat, overlooking opponents off a loss. It states:

Play AGAINST a road favorite of 1½-20½ points off a SU win as an underdog of 14+ points in its last game and not a shutout SU win before that vs. an opponent off a SU loss.

This situation has come up 18 times since 1980 and amazingly the favorite has only won 3 of the games outright, while losing 15 SU! Most importantly for our purposes, these teams are a perfectly dreadful 0-18 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 13 ppg on average.

Last year was a classic example with Utah coming off their huge upset over UCLA only to follow it up with a shocking 27-0 LOSS at UNLV, of all places, in what turned out to be a spread loss of 34½ points! Next in line as the PLAY AGAINST team is Florida International.

Meanwhile, as bad as North Texas has been recently, we do have some numbers in their favor, as they are 7-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) as a home underdog of more than 4 points with less than 13 days rest off 2 road games, and 12-0 ATS (+12) vs. a sub-.350% opponent off a SU win.

Another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours shows that smaller home underdogs looking to avenge a road favorite loss of more than a TD have been tremendously strong. It says:

From Game 3 on, play ON a conference underdog of 2-10½ points with less than 13 days rest, seeking revenge for a road favorite SU loss of 8+ points in the previous matchup last season and not off 5 ATS losses vs. an opponent not off 2 conference ATS wins of more than 1 point in each game.

Just since 1999, these teams are a phenomenal 20-0 ATS, covering the spread by better than 11 ppg on average.

For those overly concerned about the bushel of points that North Texas surrendered last week, we note that Sun Belt Conference home underdogs off a non-conference game allowing 46+ points are 10-0 ATS since 2002, covering the spread by nearly a dozen ppg on average, with North Texas accounting for 2 of those wins.

Our database research also shows that home dogs and very small favorites have roared back after an embarrassing loss and catching an opponent off a surprising victory. Specifically, this NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM advises:

Play ON  a  home team (not an underdog of 19+ points or underdog of more than 1 point) off a SU loss of 11+ points allowing 56+ points vs. an opponent off an underdog/pick 'em SU win.

Such teams have been perfect since at least 1980, going 13-0 ATS, while crushing the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average.

The Golden Panthers go from pursuer to prey here, as the Green finally get down and get "Mean" with an "upset" win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTH TEXAS 31 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 23

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Bob Majors

Wisconsin +2.0 vs Ohio St.

The Buckeyes travel to Madison to take on the Badgers of Wisconsin in a Big Ten encounter.  Ohio State has not played in Madison in nearly 5 years.  Both teams have one loss on their record and hope to rebound and gain status with the pollsters.

The Buckeyes (4-1, 1-0 Big Ten) won last Saturday in a 34-21 victory over Minnesota.  QB Freshman Terrelle Pryor has taken over the starting role and has been impressive in throwing for 5 touchdowns and running for 2 additional scores in the last two games. RB Chris "Beanie" Wells has returned to the lineup after mising 3 games with a foot injury and rejuvenates the offense. On the other side of the ball, the defense ranks 12th overall in the country allowing 251.8 yards per game.

The Badgers (3-1, 0-1) needs to rebound after their last minute loss last Saturday to Michigan 27-25.  The Badgers led most of the game, but fell apart in the second half.  QB Allan Evridge had a poor performance after throwing 2 interceptions and fumbling twice against Michigan.

The Badgers entertain Penn State next week and need this game to remain in contention for the Big Ten Title.  The Badgers have won 27 of their last 28 games at home and are on a 16 game winning streak at home.  This game will be close.  Take the Badgers at home with the points and keep their home winning streak in tact.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY (Underdog Game of the Year)

TOLEDO +7.5 over Ball State: 

The Cardinals are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, while the Rockets are Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home dog. The Rockets were embarrassed at home last week by FIU, but let's take note that they were off an emotional 55-54 OT loss to Fresno State the week before and they had this conference game on deck, so the FIU game was a flat spot for them. The Rockets are 60th in total offense, 43rd in rushing and 37th in points scored. Not terrible numbers for a 1-3 team. The defense has not been that bad as they are 59th in total defense and 43rd in passing defense (Ball State's strength). The deffense is ranked 112th in scoring, but not all of that was their fault as turnovers have continually put the defense in bad field position. Despite losing to Fresno, the Rockets still outgained them 598-420  and last week they lost by 19 to FIU, but still outgained them 302-239. Ball State's high powered offense comes in ranked 13th overall, 15th in passing and 13th in scoring, but they will now start to feel the effects of losing WR Dante Love. The Rocket passing defense has the abilty to slow this team down. Defense has been a sore spot for the Cards, as they are 86th overall and 103rd vs the run, plus they have allowed 400 ypg over their last 4 games.. Eventually those numbers will come back to haunt this team, especially if the offense sputters a bit due to the loss of Love. Yes Ball State is 5-0 on the year, but they have lost 6 of their last 7 in Toledo and they are facing a Rockets squad that is in dire need of a win and a squad that is 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games. Look for the Rockets to come out fired up and hand the Cardinals their first loss of the year.

This game features a SUPER POWER ANGLE: Play AGAINST any 5-0 conference road fav of 28 points or less vs an opponent that is off a DD ATS loss. This Angle is 23-4 ATS.


2 UNIT PLAY

3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Purdue +19, Iowa +12.5, Florida -18.5


1 UNIT PLAYS

Minnesota/ Indiana Over 60.5:

The Over is 8-2 in Hoosiers last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 9-4 in their last 13 games following a ATS loss, while the Over is 15-3 in Minnesota's last 18 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 and 27-9-1 in their last 37 home games. 6 of the last 7 in this series has scored more than today's total, with an average of 69 ppg being scored in that span. The last 3 here in Minnesota between the two have all scored 62 or more points. The Hosiers offense has been good this year, as they are ranked 18th overall, 10th in rushing and 41st in scoring. The defensive numbers overall haven't been that bad, but the chinks in the armor has really shown in the last 2 games as they have allowed 84 points and 960 yards the last 2 games. Those 2 games have averaged 66.5 ppg. The Minnesota offense has put up 33.2 ppg, including 34.3 ppg in their 3 home games. The Gopher defense has struggled at times this year as they are 48th in points allowed, despite ranking 75th in yards allowed and 83rd in passing. Both teams have the abillity to put 30 or more points on the board in this one, so I see another game between these two that will put 65 or more points on the board.


Boston College / NC State Under 42:

The Under is 7-1-1 in Eagles last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 20-8 in Eagles last 28 games on grass, while the Under is 23-9-1 in Wolfpack last 33 games following a ATS loss and 17-5 when Tom O'brien faces a team with a winning pct of 60% or better. The BC offense has not been great on the year as they are 899th overall and 60th in scoring. The defense though has been great as they are 15th overalll and 2nd in scoring, allowing just 6.5 ppg through 4 games. The NC State offense is ranked 113th overall and 110th in scoring and they should have all sorts of problems putting double digits on the board vs the BC defense. The NC State defense has struggled , but they should hold BC to Under 28 in this one. Look for a low scoring game between these two today.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ross Benjamin

South Carolina / Mississippi
Play:South Carolina +2.0

Everything and anything that could have gone right did for Mississippi last week in their monumental upset as a 24.0-point underdog versus Florida. The history of college football shows that college football teams coming off an upset of this magnitude and especially when being installed as a favorite are very vulnerable in their next game. Not to mention the fact the Rebels will be fighting the Sports Illustrated cover jinx this week. The Gamecocks are a quality football team that has underachieved thus far. However this will be a perfect opportunity to shine led by a stellar defense that is one of the best in the nation statistically.

Any conference home favorite of 5.0 or less that is coming off an away underdog of 20.0 or more SU win is 0-4 SU and ATS since 1980. The underdog has won all 4 of these games outright by an average of 10.8 points per game. Play on South Carolina.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Cajun-Sports 2* CFB Free Selection for Saturday!

2 STAR SELECTION

Rutgers +14 over WEST VIRGINIA

The Mountaineers will host the Scarlet Knights early on Saturday, as the two teams open Big East play. Both teams have been among the league’s best in recent seasons; however, neither program is off to a great start in 2008.

West Virginia, after entering the season in the Top 25, is an even 2-2 following a 27-3 victory over Marshall last weekend. Rutgers began the season with three straight losses, all as favorites, before finally entering the win column against 1-AA Morgan State, 38-0, last weekend.

Rutgers could have easily poured on the points last week; however, it was over at the half and the Knights called off the dogs. The offense did what it had to do, while the Rutgers' defense was simply dominant, yielding only eight first downs and a mere 109 yards of total offense to Morgan State . The team also forced four turnovers, in addition to picking up three sacks. THAT’S the Scarlet Knights defense we are more accustomed to seeing.

The Mountaineers have tried a variety of offensive approaches this season and it appears they will return to depending mainly on their ground attack to move the ball. Quarterback Patrick White injured his thumb in the game and will play here, but his throwing could especially be hampered, allowing the Rutgers defense to further focus on stopping the run.

Despite the Scarlet Knights horrendous 0-3 start, they haven't played a conference game yet, so they still have a lot to play for, as does the Mountaineers. The difference here is the coaching which we believe leans heavily in Rutgers and Greg Schiano’s direction. We often look to play ON a rebuilding team that started the season losing at least its first few games.

Off to such a poor start, the team will be butt of jokes in all local sports media and nobody will want to bet on the sorry bunch; however, this will generate line value on the team as they will be very determined to win, while upcoming opponents may take them lightly. Teams whose coaches have a long-term commitment from the athletic department will receive better efforts from the players, while coaches whose job is as good as gone after the season may find players more likely to quit on them.

We also like to play ON an underachieving team that has been "going through the motions" after some type of major stimulus.

Replacing the coach is the ultimate short-term wake-up call, but there can be any number. The “players-only team meeting” or lineup change are a couple of examples. It may even be something negative like a well-publicized player-player dispute or player-reporter confrontation. Ultimately, a positive stimulus or not, it can still give a falling team something to "circle the wagons" and rally around.

This is the case for Rutgers , as QB Mike Teel took a swing at a teammate in a loss at Navy. The frustration for this team had simply reached the boiling point and Teel lost his cool and took it out on the wrong team. Teel confessed his error, Schiano handled the situation, and we believe the incident has brought the team closer together and will turn out to be a rallying point, especially here as a road dog against a hated conference foe.

It’s probably for the best that this game is on the road, as Rutgers won’t have to worry about hearing their home fans boo them, as has happened in previous home losses this season. The road is often a sanctuary for teams. They feel less pressure and heat away from the home fans. These teams may be overvalued at home, but will be undervalued on the road, which is what we see here. They have played well here recently, as the road team in this series is 5-0 ATS when not favored by more than 14 points. We also note that the Knights are 7-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) as an underdog when playing with revenge for a SU & ATS loss since 2003

As further proof that their goose-egg victory over Morgan State will be a confidence boost for Rutgers , we find them qualifying for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

Play ON a conference road underdog off a non-lined shutout SU win of less than 52 points vs. an opponent not off 2 SU losses.

Since at least 1980, these teams are 10-0-1 ATS, easily covering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average.

Meanwhile, we have a Mountaineers team that is an ugly 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) at home off a home game and not an underdog of 20+ points.

Additionally, we are not sold on their new coach, Bill Stewart, in the least bit. He’s a nice guy – too nice – which is not conducive to having a tough team. He’s too determined to NOT be Rich Rodriguez, so we see these teams headed in opposite directions as the season progresses.

The Knights have a great chance of stealing one here, and should at least stay within a TD of the Mountaineers for a comfortable spread cover.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WEST VIRGINIA 34 RUTGERS 27

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tony Mathews

South Carolina vs. Mississippi
Selection: South Carolina +2.5

The Mississippi Rebels are coming off an amazing, unexpected upset against the 4th ranked Florida Gators. Last Weekend’s game took place with the Rebels marked as more than a 3 TD underdog. After that big win, poor Ole Miss is due for a big letdown.

This marked Mississippi’s first victory in a SEC game since the Rebels beat Mississippi State to finish the 2006 season, and it was their first win vs. a ranked team since they beat 25th ranked South Carolina in 2004. It was also their first victory against a top five team since 1977, when Ole Miss upset Notre Dame 31 years ago.

Before the Florida upset, Mississippi faced a greatly improved Vanderbilt team who really drew a lot of effort out of the Rebels. While they won, it was a close one and wasn’t decided until the very end.

It’s unreasonable to expect that the Rebels can keep going like this for a third straight week. On the flip side, the last two weeks have found South Carolina up against Wofford and Alabama-Birmingham which presents a great advantage for the Gamecocks.

Under Coach Steve Spurrier, S. Carolina is 7-2-1-ATS as a road underdog. They have enjoyed more R&R than the Rebels have, and they also have a defense that is far better in class. The Gamecocks offense is good enough to put up the points to manage an outright win.

Ole Miss on the other hand ranks last in the Southeastern Conference in red zone defense and has WR's that are still not quite up to par. There’s also the possibility that the Rebels will be without an injured CB Marcus Temple.

To say the least, there is value with the underdog today.

Take the South Carolina +2.5!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Fina

Selection: Florida -26

Reason: Put us down on Florida -26 for our Free College Football Selection on Saturday. Today Florida will be on the road as they take on Arkansas. We will lay the points with Florida. If Gator QB Tim Tebow has any hope of salvaging his chance at the Heisman Trophy Contention, he is going to have to muster up a spectacular performance this week. Fortunately, Arkansas is in the right position to let him do it. What it boils down to is that Arkansas won’t be able to cope with Florida’s speed. Already the Razorbacks have allowed 39.4 points for their last 8 lined games. Arkansas has offered up a combined 100 points to the Crimson Tide and the Longhorns. The fact of the matter is that Arkansas has failed to prove that their defense can stand up to efficacious offensive lines. There is the issue of the incredible upset loss to Mississippi last week, but a lot of that had to do with turnovers. Florida is vigilant in correcting those mistakes after losing 31 points to Mississippi. It's also good to note that Arkansas is 4-9 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. The bottom line, Florida should be able to get a blowout win today! Take Florida -26!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Sportsbettingstats

Missouri -11 at Nebraska

The Cornhuskers come into this game after suffering their first loss to the season at the hands of Virginia Tech 35-30, while The Tigers had last week off. This is the first road game for the Tigers, as they start Big 12 play at Nebraska where they have not won in 30 years. The Tigers are led by Heisman front-runner QB Chase Daniel (1412 yds 12 TD 1 INT) and his main targets are WR Jeremy Maclin (26 rec 394 yds 4 TD) and TE Chase Coffman (28 rec 379 yds 3 TD). The Tigers rushing attack is led by RB Derrick Washington (361 yds 8 TD). The Cornhuskers are led by QB Joe Ganz (997 yds 7 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are WR's Nate Swift (15 rec 259 yds 2 TD) and Todd Peterson (15 rec 187 yds 1 TD). The Husker rushing attack is led by the duo of Marlon Lucky (186 yds 4 TD) and Roy Helu (164 yds 2 TD).

Staff Pick: Mizzu is all about offense, as they rank 2nd in total yards, 3rd in passing yards, and 2nd in points scored. This will be a big game for the Tigers who have not played a tough game since they beat Illinois in their home opener. Nebraska has to find a way to contain Daniels, but it will not be easy. The Tigers rank ahead of the Cornhuskers in every offensive category and for them to have any chance in this game they have to play a stellar defensive game, as they do not have the weapons to get into a shootout. The RB's of Nebraska have to have a big game and pick up yards, so Mizzu's offense stays off the field. In last week's loss to Virginia Tech, the Huskers gave up 377 yards and were at home to the Hokies. That does not bode well for them with Mizzu coming to town this Saturday night. The Huskers D is not playing well, as they are allowing an average of 19.5 points and 354.8 yards this year. The Huskers are 15-0 against Mizzu at home since they last lost to them way back in 1978. Nebraska has hope, as they play a Mizzu D that that ranks 112th in the nation, giving up 279.5 passing yards a game. Look for Mizzu to come out and score a lot of points, as the Huskers do not have the D to stop them. This game will be a high scoring one, but look for the Tigers to come out and win the game, cover the spread, and to end their winless drought in Nebraska.

Tigers 47 Cornhuskers 35


Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans -16.5

Coming into this big Pac 10 match up the Trojans lost their last game being shocked by Oregon State 27-21, while the Ducks thumped Washington State beating them 63-14. Both teams still have high hopes for the season, but the loser of this game can pretty much kiss their National Title hopes goodbye. QB Justin Roper, who has missed the last couple games with a knee injury but is expected to play against USC, leads the Ducks. Roper's main targets are Jaison Williams (20 rec 288 yds 3 TD) and Terence Scott (18 rec 271 yds 2 TD). The strength of the Ducks is their rushing attack, which is led by the duo of LeGarrette Blount (481 yds 8 TD) and Jeremiah Johnson (440 yds 6 TD). The Trojans are led by QB mark Sanchez (737 yds 10 TD 3 INT) and his main targets are WR's Damian Williams (16 rec 243 yds 3 TD) and Patrick Turner (10 rec 149 yds 2 TD). The Trojans rushing attack is led by the duo of Joe McKnight (175 yds) and C.J. Gable (110 yds 1 TD).

Staff Pick: The Trojans look to regroup after losing last week against Oregon State. They really need to win this game, as if they do not they will be 0-2 in Pac 10 play while the Ducks will be 2-0. The QB situation in Oregon has been sketchy this season with injuries, but their offense led by the rushing game has been legit, as the Ducks rank 8th in total yards, 4th in rushing yards per game, and 7th in points scored per game. The defensive leader of the Trojans, Two-time All-Pac-10 linebacker Rey Maualuga, may be out for the game with a sprained knee. Still, the Trojans are stacked up front and have the personnel to stop the dynamic rushing attack of the Ducks. There's no place like home for the Trojans who have won 14 in a row at the Coliseum against opponents that are ranked. Trojans QB Mark Sanchez has played well this year, but his interception at the end of the Oregon State game cost them. The Trojans are still a great team and they will show it this Saturday night at home, as they will dominate the Ducks winning the game and covering the spread.

Trojans 42 Ducks 23

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LOU DIAMOND

Take  Navy

Navy Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Midshipmen are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. MWC. Midshipmen are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week. Midshipmen are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Midshipmen are 50-21 ATS in their last 71 road games. Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. INDEP. Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Rocketman

Hawaii / Fresno State
Play:1* Fresno State -22 1/2

Hawaii is scoring only 8.5 points per game on the road this year.  Hawaii is allowing 34.5 points per game overall this year and 50.5 points per game on the road this season.  Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.  Warriors are 7-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Warriors are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.  Home team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.  We'll play Fresno State for 1 unit tonight! 

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Tony Karpinski

Oregon vs. USC
Play: USC -15

If you Stop the Oregon Ducks rushing attack then you stop Oregon. The Trojans are built to do just that with a good and fast defensive front. Duck coach Belotti is on his fourth/fifth string QB’s and would love to hand it off every play. Its not the best time to be playing in the backyard of ticked-off talent of USC who had 10 days to hear about how they lost to Oregon St and dropping in the rankings. USC ROLLS by 30

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

Colorado +13 over Texas

Texas is in a tough spot. Next week they are in Oklahoma. Could they perhaps be looking ahead? Colorado was embarrassed by Texas 3 seasons ago and some of the Colorado Seniors will never forget that brutal game as they were blown out. Colorado is a better team at home and should keep this close. All of the money is on Texas and they are a perfect 4-0 against the spread this year. Vegas does not make it this easy for Texas backers. Take Colorado.

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Johnny Guild

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats

Both Texas Tech and Kansas State high power offenses will put up the points in a scoring frenzy, but the Wildcats so-so defense allowing 22.8 points per game, yielding 75 in their last two will have a tougher assignment slowing down Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games versus Kansas State.

Play: Texas Tech Red Raiders


Texas Tech/Kansas State Over 66
Maryland Terrapins -13.5
USC Trojans -16
Tulsa Golden Hurricane -16.5

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Drew Gordon

Chi. Cubs at LA DODGERS +125

Looks like the Cubs are going to have to wait another year, as they've run into their worst possible scenario tonight: Down 0-2, facing a surging team, starting a surging pitcher, in hostile territory no less! No question who the better team was in the regular season, but equally true is there's no question who's been the better team in the postseason, as the Dodgers have outscored the Cubs 17-5 thru Games 1 & 2 and dominated almost every aspect of this series!

More of the same tonight, as rookie Hiroki Kuroda gets the nod having gone 1-0 with a lockdown 1.69 ERA over his last 3 starts! He's also 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA at home this season, and that includes a real gem against this very same Cubs team - a complete game shutout back on June 6th, allowing just 4 hits while striking out 11 batters! Note, the one spot where the Cubs offense isn't superb is on the road against righties, batting .262 against them, averaging 4.8 runs per game.

Opposing Kuroda is the Cubs Rich Harden, who's been great since coming over from the Athletics. Truthfully, there's not much negative to say about Harden (similar to Kuroda), but one thing that has to scare Cubs-backers is the lack of offense we've seen from this club. As opposed the Dodgers hot-hitting ways, the Cubs are struggling mightily, and it won't get any easier tonight against Kuroda.

Bottom line, the Dodgers are not to be trifled with at home, where they've won 24 of their last 33 games, and tonight start a pitcher who dominated the Cubs at home already once this season. With Manny being Manny, and the rest of this Dodgers team following suit, Kuroda at plus money is the only play here tonight!

Take the LA Dodgers behind Kuroda over the Chicago Cubs and Harden in this MLB match up.

2♦ LA DODGERS

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Northcoast Saturday Comps

Northcoast Complimentary College Play of the Week

SMU +14 over UCF


TV Play of the Day

Ohio State -1 over Wisconsin

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matt Foust

Washington +24.0

There is another big Pac-10 contest going off today, but it is not this game; this game being the Washington Huskies at the Arizona Wildcats. I am going to go with the Huskies, believe it or not, as a 24 point road dog in this tilt with Mike Stoops’ Arizona Wildcats.

Everything points to the Wildcats dominating the Huskies, and I am sure they will win the game; however, I think Washington will bring enough this afternoon to cover the big spread. Why? Well, because Arizona has not proven in Mike Stoops tenure to be an overly consistent team. Even this season, probably Stoops best thus far, they have had a lapse, losing 36-28 to a less talented New Mexico team.

Washington is a young team and they have played like it to this point. Their highlight is a close loss to BYU, but young team’s can improve (i.e. Oregon State), especially when there are rumors swirling about their coach’s demise. Sometimes this can bring out the best in a team. I see an inspired effort from the Huskies today as they will be playing on the road without as much pressure and with nothing to lose.

Here are a couple of nuggets too, that may be of interest. In Mike Stoops tenure (this is his sixth year) at Arizona, the Wildcats have beaten an opponent by more than 24 points at home just three times. Two of those have happened this season, but I find it unlikely that he will pull off a feat three times in six games that he only managed to do once in his first five seasons. Also, the underdog in this conference series is 8-3 straight up and 11-0 against the spread since 1997.

Pick: Take the Washington Huskies +24

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Sammy Jankus, The Reverse Barometer!   big_smile

Yes, as ol’ Sammy prepares to go under the knife, I thought I’d give out my college and pro picks this weekend for free. Bear in mind that my practice of giving you the other side of what I think are the easiest games on the board has not been overly successful of late. Therefore, if I deal you a bunch of losers, you can say, “Hmmm, this guy IS having an unusally lucky season. Maybe I’ll just buy his plays next week and NOT play the reverse side.” Or if my flip-flop specials perform well against the spread, you might say, “Jeez, this guy really IS the Master of Disaster. I’ll buy his picks next week so I can make money from his misery.” See? It’s a real win-win situation!

SATURDAY NCAA PLAYS
I like Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Ball State, Ohio State and Oregon as side plays.
In O/U action, I like Indiana-Minnesota OVER, Army-Tulane OVER, Auburn-Vandy UNDER and Ball State-Toledo OVER.

So your plays today are:
1) 3* Indiana-Minnesota to go UNDER the total of 59 points –12:00 NOON ET
2) 4* Tulane-Army to go UNDER the total of 42 points – 3:00 PM ET
3) 3* (329) SOUTH CAROLINA (+2.5) – 3:30 PM ET
4) 4* (332) KANSAS STATE (+7) – 3:30 PM ET
5) 3* Auburn-Vanderbilt to go OVER the total of 37 points – 6:00 PM ET
6) 3* (380) TOLEDO (+7) – 7:00 PM ET
7) 3* Ball State-Toledo to go UNDER the total of 63 points – 7:00 PM ET
8) 5* (390) WISCONSIN (+1.5) – 8:00 PM ET
9) 4* (394) USC (-16) – 8:00 PM ET

SUNDAY NFL PLAYS
I like Chicago, New England and Buffalo as side plays.
In O/U action, I like Indianapolis-Houston UNDER, Chicago-Detroit UNDER, Buffalo-Arizona OVER and Cincinnati-Dallas OVER.

So your plays for Sunday are:
1) Indianapolis-Houston to go OVER the total of 47 points – 1:00 PM ET
2) (416) DETROIT (+3) – 1:00 PM ET
3) Chicago-Detroit to go OVER the total of 44.5 points – 1:00 PM ET
4) (424) SAN FRANCISCO (+3) – 4:15 PM ET
5) (426) ARIZONA (-1) – 4:15 PM ET
6) Buffalo-Arizona to go UNDER the total of 44.5 points – 4:15 PM ET
7) Cincinnati-Dallas to go UNDER the total of 44 points – 4:15 PM ET

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