Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dave Cokin

Texas Tech / Kansas St
Take Texas Tech

Texas Tech has yet to be tested, and some observers therefore consider the Red Raiders to be a bit overrated at this juncture. I don't think that's the case and I'm of the belief this is going to be Mike Leach's best team yet. There's been a subtle change in the Texas Tech attack this season. In the past, they've been unwilling or unable to feature any consistent running game. But this season we're seeing the Red Raiders balancing things a bit more. Make no mistake, this team will still live and die by the pass. But the fact Leach is showing more faith in the run will enable them to protect leads better. The Tech defense is also better than it has been previously. Kansas State can't trade with the Red Raiders offensively, and they've been absolutely porous defensively. I don't see this one being especially close, even in Manhattan, and I'm laying the points with Texas Tech.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Hawaii @ Fresno St.
PICK: Fresno St. -21 

Greg McMackin knew his first year as Hawaii's new head coach was not going to be any "walk in the park." Just eight starters returned from last year's 12-1 team (lost Sugar Bowl to Georgia), as the Rainbows faced major rebuilding jobs on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The early returns have not been promising. Hawaii has been totally outclassed at Florida (lost 56-10) and Oregon State (lost 45-7), while the Rainbows have split two home games. Hawaii found itself down 17-7 at the half to Weber St on September 6 but behind troubled QB Tyler Graunke, rallied for a 36-17 win (Graunke replaced Funaki in the 2nd half, passing for 218 yards and three TDs). Funaki was back in the starters' role after the team's blowout loss at OSU and this past Saturday, had Hawaii up 17-7 at the half over San Jose St. However, the Rainbows had FIVE second-half turnovers (Funaki had three INTs and a fumble), eventually losing 20-17. Graunke replaced Funaki in the fourth quarter but it was his INT which set up the game-winning FG by the Spartans. Who knows (or cares) which QB gets the call this week, as it won't much matter. Fresno State probably can't wait to get at this group of Rainbows. Hawaii barely escaped against Fresno St last year, winning 37-30 in Honolulu as 18-point favorites. However, in Hawaii's last visit to Fresno (in '06), the Rainbows blasted the Bulldogs, winning 68-37. Expect Pat Hill to remember that one and look for the 3-1 Bulldogs to hold little back. FSU is ranked 22nd in the latest AP poll, with only a 13-10 home loss to Wisconsin marring its record (missed three FGs in that one). QB Brandstater is connecting on 63.3 percent of his passes with eight TDs (to six different players) and only two INTs to open '08. FSU is well-balanced, averaging 180.0 YPG on the ground (4.8 per), with Ryan Mathews leading the way (had 163 YR with 3 TDs vs Rutgers and 166 YR with 1 rushing TD vs UCLA, plus a 25-yard TD catch). Hawaii allowed 406 yards at Florida, as the Gators added two interception TDs and a punt return TD. At OSU, the Rainbows allowed 485 yards and in both games, the offense struggled. Hawaii totaled an average of only 226 YPG in those two road losses, converting on just 3-of-22 third downs. FSU will likely "run the table" until its showdown with Boise State on November 28 (in Boise) and this win will come fairly comfortably, as the Bulldogs will be looking for a little "payback." Lay the points

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Colin Cowherd

USC
Miami FL
Alabama
North Carolina
Ohio State

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Norm Hitzges

Double Play
Nevada -24.5 vs Idaho
Oklahoma State -25 vs Texas A&M
Nebraska +10.5 vs Missouri
South Carolina +2.5 vs Mississippi

Single Plays

Minnesota -7 vs Indiana
Stanford +7 vs Notre Dame
Michigan -3 vs Illinois
Kentucky +16 vs Alabama
Purdue +13 vs Penn State
Toledo +7.5 vs Ball St
UCLA -17.5 vs Washington St
Fresno -22 vs Hawaii
Tulane -20 vs Army
Colorado +13 vs Texas

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Sports Insights

Texas Tech vs Kansas State

Coming into the season, everyone knew about Texas Tech's high-powered offense led by Senior QB Graham Harrell and Sophomore WR Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders haven't disappointed by putting up over 45 points and 570 yards a game while climbing to No. 7 in the rankings with a 4-0 record. Texas Tech improved their running game behind a pair of talented backs, Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, that each average over 6 yards per carry and are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Red Raiders are backing up all that offense with an improved defense that is giving up an average of 16 points per game.

Kansas State also knows how to put up a lot of points, as they average 47 points a contest. The Wildcats are led by Junoir QB Josh Freeman, who broke KSU's career record for passing yards last week and needs only two passing TDs to tie the school mark. KSU finally found a running game during their last contest as converted WR Lamark Brown rushed for 137 yards and a TD to give the offense a balance.

We're expecting there to be plenty of points with these two offenses facing off. Texas Tech opened as -6 favorites at Pinnacle before the line quickly moved to -7 with the Red Raiders receiving the majority of the public's wagers. The line fluctuated and triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on KSU before dropping down to Texas Tech -7.5. We like to follow the Smart Money and home teams getting more than a TD. We're backing the Wildcats in Manhattan.

Kansas State +7.5


Ohio State vs Wisconsin

Ohio State heads into Wisconsin coming off a pair of home wins to wash the bitter taste of the USC game out of their mouth. The Buckeyes haven't looked dominating since their opening win against Youngstown State, as they've been dealing with a nagging injury to starting tailback Beanie Wells and inconsistent play at quarterback. Wells finally returned and looked healthy last week against Minnesota as he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor finally brought some playmaking ability to the QB spot while splitting time with Todd Boeckman. Pryor was steady throwing the ball while rushing for 97 yards and two scores on eight carries. The Buckeyes' defense also looked better last week as they allowed only two field goals before Minnesota scored two late TDs when the game was out of reach.

Wisconsin will look to bounce back from last week's devastating second half against Michigan. The Badgers led 19-0 at halftime but allowed the Wolverines to score 27 points in the final 18 minutes to pull the upset. A big part of that loss was the four turnovers committed by Senior QB Allan Evridge. The Badgers defense allows only 17 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. Wisconsin historically plays well at home, and they have won 27 of their previous 28 games at Camp Randall Stadium.

This will be the Buckeyes first test since USC, and playing at Wisconsin is a tall task with a freshman QB. Wisconsin may have blown it last week, but they have already defeated a top-25 team this season, and they know their season could be on the line with No. 6 Penn State visiting next week. Ohio State opened as -2.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has dropped to Ohio State -1 despite the Buckeyes receiving 72% of public wagers. This has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Wisconsin, so we'll take the Badgers at home with a point or so.

Wisconsin +1.5


Missouri vs Nebraska

Missouri has looked excellent so far this season behind Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. The Tigers offense is ranked second nationally in scoring and total yards as they've racked up four non-conference wins to open the season. The only close contest was in their opening game against then-No. 20 Illinois, which they won 52-42. Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes while throwing for 12 touchdowns against one interception. The offense is balanced with RB Derrick Washington, who averages 6.8 yards a carry and has scored 8 TDs on the ground.

Nebraska is coming off a tough 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech, and has to face one of the nation's most powerful offenses. First-year Cornhuskers coach Bo Pelini has his team off to a good start, but knows the Huskers have a tough task this week. Nebraska has put up 37.5 points per game, and they will look to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense with Senior QB Joe Ganz.

This will be Missouri's first road contest as they open their Big 12 schedule. They opened as -10 favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved up and down between 10 and 11 across the marketplace throughout the week. With the Tigers receiving 77% of the public's backing, Nebraska is receiving a plethora of Smart Money plays, mostly from books with positive records, due to the betting percentage and line fluctuation. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Huskers with the points.

Nebraska +10.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Lee Kostroski

Florida St @ Miami FL
PICK: Miami FL -2

A few years ago, this game rivalry was all the experts could talk about as it usually meant ACC supremacy, but now it’s merely just another game on the schedule. Miami thinks they have found something special in freshmen quarterback Robert Marve. Marve has looked very good considering his first three starts of his career were at Florida, at Texas A&M, and vs. North Carolina. Marve has completed 65% of his passes for 416 yards and 5 touchdowns against some pretty talented defenses. On the other side, Florida St. still hasn’t found a legitimate consistent quarterback, they have split time between sophomores Ponder and Richardson, but both turn the ball over far too often. Expect the Seminoles to struggle against a solid Hurricane defense, and Miami to get the easy win at home.

Miami is 7-2 in the last 9 games vs. the Seminoles and the Seminoles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Florida St. struggled earlier this season with their only real test so far, losing 3-12 to Wake Forest. In that game, the quarterbacks were a combined 12-36 for only 118 yards and 5 interceptions! They gained only 220 yards and lost 2 more fumbles for a total of 7 turnovers! We see that game against Wake as a very similar game to this one and we full expect an opportunistic Miami team taking advantage of Florida State mistakes. Take Miami minus the points.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

Texas Tech @ Kansas St.
PICK: Texas Tech -7

Kansas State is not a good defensive football team. The Wildcats closed out the 2007 campaign by allowing 198 points in their final four games, missing out on a bowl bid as a result. Two weeks ago, we saw a suspect Louisville offense rush for 303 yards against the Wildcats, while Louisville quarterback Hunter Cantwell picked apart the secondary. K- State couldn’t get to the quarterback with their blitzes; they got pushed around at the line of scrimmage against the run, and their back seven looked noticeably slow against a mediocre Big East opponent.

Last week, it was a similar story, this time against a Sun Belt foe. Louisiana-Lafayette gained more than 500 yards against the Wildcats, hanging 37 points on this bottom tier stop unit. The last time that K-State faced the high octane Texas Tech attack, the Red Raiders threw for a school record 669 yards in a 59-20 wipeout…and that was against a better defense than the one Ron Prince is working with this year. While Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas have been steadily moving up in the national polls thanks to some high profile victories, Mike Leach’s squad has stayed under the radar through the first month of the season, giving us a very reasonable pointspread to work with here.Take Texas Tech.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Bryan Leonard

Army vs. Tulane 
Play: Tulane -20   

In our college football power ratings we have the Black Knights ranked dead last in the FBS, and that's even after their good showing last week at Texas A&M. But you would expect the Cadets to get up for a game against a Texas team as so many of their players are from the Lone Star State. But now we find a team who runs the triple option going against one of the stoutest run defenses in the country, and they do so knowing the host is playing with revenge. Last year Army beat Tulane at home by a field goal in overtime after trailing by 10 points with two minutes remaining in regulation. The Green Wave dominated the game outyarding Army 401-240. The Black Knights have not played well away from West Point as of late losing by margins of 20, 24, 24 and 20 points the last four games before facing A&M last week. This isn't a team that has quick strike ability as they have amassed just 141 total passing yards in three FBS games this season. Now this one-dimensional offense must face a terrific Tulane defense that has yielded just 261 total rushing yards in four FBS games. How good have they been? They held Alabama to 86 rushing yards and East Carolina to only 56 yards on the ground. With a couple extra days to prepare off their 34-27 midweek win over SMU you can bet they will be ready to exact some revenge. And unlike that SMU game where they held a 31-7 lead at the half, we don't expect this Green Wave team to let up this week. PLAY TULANE 

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Max Prophet

Wash. St. Cougars vs UCLA Bruins

Wow, what a matchup. No, we really mean it. Both of these teams have suffered outrageously humiliating losses this season. Of course, UCLA's defeat was very high-profile, as they fell behind 42-0 at the half en route to a 59-0 loss to BYU as they gained nine yards on the ground and allowed 521 total yards. Things got perhaps even more discouraging two weeks ago, as the Bruins went down to a 31-10 defeat against Arizona.

But has any team been through the misery Washington State has endured in its transitional period under coach Paul Wulff? The Cougars dropped the season opener by a 39-13 count to Oklahoma State, which in retrospect looks like something that would have offered encouragement. But after losses of 66-3 to California, 45-17 to Baylor and 63-14 to Oregon, all of which saw the Wazzu defense surrender over 500 yards, there appears to be no limit to the "sparring partner mentality" this team possesses.

WSU is now second to last in turnover margin (minus-13), 117th in scoring defense, 103rd in scoring offense and 113th in protecting the passer (15 sacks allowed). How low can you go?

Actually, lower.

Washington State started the season with Gary Rogers as the starting quarterback. He went down with injury, out for the season, and was replaced by Kevin Lopina. Well, Lopina is out of action too, leaving Wulff and his no-huddle offense with third-string redshirt freshman Marshall Lobbestael, who did his best against Oregon but tossed a couple of interceptions. At least give Lobbestael a break; he doesn't play defense for the Cougars.

Okay, back to UCLA. The Bruins finally had the services of both Derrick Coleman and Kahlil Bell against Fresno State last week, and that running back tandem combined for 160 yards, something that been noticeably missing from the attack. We don't make strong recommendations on QB Kevin Craft, but the San Diego State transfer has thrown just one pickoff in his last three games, encompassing 90 throws. And though the UCLA defense has been challenged by functional offenses, we're not sure WSU fits that category.

Because one team is much more capable of a good performance than the other, we'll lay the points with the Bruins.

Take UCLA

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Winning Inc

Kentucky Wildcats vs Alabama Crimson

Hey, have you forgotten that the University of Kentucky is undefeated too? The Wildcats, who ended their 2007 season with a win over Florida State in their bowl game, have yet to taste defeat, beating three of their four opponents handily and having a bit of a close call against Middle Tennessee. UK has averaged 31.5 points a game and given up just 5.5 points. Of course, the resume doesn't quite compare to that of the Crimson Tide, you based on accomplishment might actually be able to claim the #1 national ranking, as they have rather decisively beaten both Clemson and Georgia, consensus top ten foes in the pre-season polls.

So you can't disparage anything Nick Saban has done with his club this season. There's a loaded backfield with Glen Coffee, Mark Ingram and Roy Upchurch; quarterback John Parker Wilson has thrown six TDs with only one interception, and there is balance in the receiving corps, although the standout is prize freshman Julio Jones, who caught 16 passes with four touchdowns. On defense, it goes without saying that the Tide is getting the job done. They are third nationally against the rush, allowing just 54 yards a game, and that is after having faced the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Clemson's duo of C.J. Spiller and James Davis. Alabama has permitted just one rushing touchdown in the last 24 quarters of football.

So the questions become these:

Can Kentucky throw the ball?

Will Alabama have a big enough letdown after last week's win over Georgia?

The answer to the second question is unknown. The answer to the first is "probably not." Mike Hartline has thrown only one interception in 123 passes this year. But he's producing only about five yards an attempt, so the big plays to loosen up the Alabama defense aren't going to come.

We don't want to bank on the letdown, so we'll lay the points with Alabama.

Take Alabama

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Brian Gabrielle

Oklahoma Sooners vs Baylor Bears
Take the Baylor Bears +27

Baylor always seems to come up with that one big surprise upset of the year. Now, I'm not sure this is it, but this game does have the ingredients for an Oklahoma let-down.

Exhibit #1 is the newly found top ranking in the nation. It's been well established as a curse of sorts, as new #1's were toppled on a weekly basis in 2007 and we've already seen two #1's toppled here in 2008 (Georgia & USC). The dangerous thing for Oklahoma fans is really the pending shootout with Texas which takes place next week, leaving this game in a classic "Look-ahead" scenario. It's always fashionable to claim your team is not looking ahead, as Bob Stoops has said, re-assuring the Sooner faithful that they are indeed taking the Bears seriously. However, what Stoops says and what is in the minds and hearts of college boys is two different things.

I won't be as bold to call for an upset, but my money says that Baylor puts a scare into Sooner ans - at least through 3 quarters.

Oklahoma 37, Baylor 20

Take Baylor +27

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

BIG AL

LA Lafayette at LA Monroe

At 7 pm, our member selection is on the La Monroe Warhawks over La Lafayette. Monroe has a big advantage over its Louisiana rival, as it didn't play last week, while Lafayette had a tough game against Kansas State. Also, Monroe has played very well at home this year, with a 37-15 blowout of Alabama A&M, and a 1-point loss (28-27) to the Arkansas Razorbacks as a two-touchdown underdog. Monroe has dominated the series vs. Lafayette, with eight wins in the last 11 meetings, including a 6-3 ATS mark.

Play on: LA Monroe

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Oklahoma at Baylor

This is a classic sandwich spot for the Sooners. They come off a big revenge win against TCU (Horned Frogs handed OU 1 of 2 home losses in Stoops' era) and have the Red River Shootout vs. Texas on deck. They are being asked to lay nearly four touchdowns on the road here against a much-improved team coming off a bye. Oklahoma is 5-12 ATS the week prior to playing Texas, so the look ahead factor does seem to come into play.

Play on: Baylor

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Michael Alexander

Auburn vs. Vanderbilt    
Play:Auburn -3.5   

The Auburn Tigers ride into Vanderbilt to take on the Comodores off a tough win over Tennessee last week putting them at 4-1 SU but only 1-4 ATS. Auburn will be playing only their second game on the road this season. In their first road game the Tigers were able to manage only 3 points versus Mississippi State. Overall the Auburn offense has averaged 19.8 points per game on 329 yards of total offense. Their defense has been tough giving up only 10.6 points per game on the season allowing only 246 yards of total offense.

The Vanderbilt Comodores come into this game ranked in the top 25 for the first time in 24 years as they are 4-0 both SU and ATS with three of the wins as an outright underdog. The Comodores offense has been impressive averaging 29.7 points per game on 283 yards of total offense while their defense has given up 17 points per game and a rather high 364 yards of offense.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: VANDERBILT is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in October games since 1992. VANDERBILT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nelly

Baylor + over Oklahoma

This is a near perfect situation to go against Oklahoma. The Sooners are the freshly crowned #1 team in the nation after delivering a convincing win in a hyped match-up against TCU. That was supposed be the tricky trap game for the Sooners but considering that the Red River Shootout is on deck this game is the tough spot. Oklahoma has been a huge beneficiary of turnovers this season and the schedule has really not been that impressive considering the lone road win came against a now 0-4 team.

Baylor has been laughably bad in recent years but the Bears have shown some fight under new Coach Briles. Baylor enters this game off a bye week and the Bears are rushing for nearly 225 yards per game making them a promising underdog. Last season Baylor gained 450 yards against the Sooners and easily covered in Norman as this is a match-up that is impossible to get the complete focus for the Sooners.

Baylor nearly beat Connecticut on the road this season and destroyed Washington State at home. In past seasons the Bears would struggle to pull away in almost all games but they have delivered blowout wins in the two wins. The Bears also have much better defensive numbers than in past seasons as the transformation of this program is off to a strong start. Given the improvement of Baylor and the terrible spot for Oklahoma this looks like a great situation to grab the points. If the Sooners win big here, they may legitimately be the top team in the nation, but we expect a scare.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jim Feist

Penn St / Purdue
Take: Under

This is a high total for a Big 10 game, a conference with plenty of plodding, ground-oriented teams. In this game, Purdue likes the wide open air game, while Penn State can play any style. The Nittany Lions are in great shape to eat up the clock against the weak Purdue run defense with RBs Evan Royster (518 yds, 7.8 ypc) and Stephfon Green (6.8 ypc). They rolled up 241 yards rushing on Illinois last week. Of course, the Penn State defense is very talented, allowing 12.8 ppg. Purdue likes to pass behind senior QB Curtis Painter, but he has new targets this season and has just 5 TDs, 4 INTs, despite an easy schedule. The losing team has scored 19, 0, 15, 13 and 14 the last 5 meetings, and Painter played in 3 of those. This total is too high. Play Penn St/Purdue under the total.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

IOWA (+) over Michigan State

Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is starting to hear rumors about his job being in jeopardy and he does not like that one bit. The Hawkeyes are 3-2 SU this year and enter this must-win Big 10 battle off a pair of losses (by a grand total of six points) to Pittsburgh and Northwestern.

With a 22-9-1 ATS pointspread log, Iowa has been at its best coming off a straight up loss. This profitable team trend improves to 17-5-1 ATS provided the Hawkeyes lost to the pointspread in their last battle too. Even better, when priced as an underdog of +9 or more and off back-to-back straight up losses, Iowa has cruised to a spotless 6-0 ATS record.

Since its season-opening loss at California, Michigan State has ripped off four consecutive wins over Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame and Indiana. The Spartans are playing well but the Hawkeyes have given MSU fits over the years. In its last 22 against Iowa, Michigan State stands 7-14-1 SU and 7-15 ATS including a shocking 1-10 ATS in this set laying points. Also, in their last 15 as a conference home favorite, the Spartans are a soft 5-10 ATS!

Since 1980, conference road underdogs priced at +3’ or more are a profitable 77-48 ATS provided they own a won/loss percentage of .333 or better, lost straight up as a home favorite last and their opponent checks in off back-to-back straight up wins. The Hawkeyes fit this system perfectly. The Spartans better be ready because they’re going to get the Iowa’s best shot. Take Iowa!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Ohio State at Wisconsin

Wisconsin is 13-3-1 ATS after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game and they are 20-8-1 ATS after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their last game. The Underdog in this series is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings. Ohio St is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games vs. winning teams and they are 0-5 ATS off a Straight Up win. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game. PLAY ON #390 WISCONSIN +

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Iowa

The Hawkeyes meet the Spartans in a Big 10 showdown in East Lansing in a game pivotal to both teams' post-season hopes. From a fundamental standpoint Iowa rushes the ball at a 5.0 YPR clip. That fits nicely into MSU's 4.4 defensive YPR. In addiiton, Iowa's defense surrenders 72 YPG less than Michigan State's defense. Technically speaking, winning conference dogs off a conference loss as a favorite of 7 or more points are 38-15 ATS if the loss was by 4 or more points. Look for Iowa to improve to 6-1 ATs in this series here today. Grab the points with the Hawkeyes.

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Jimmy The Moose

Penn State at Purdue
Prediction: Penn State

Penn State is off to a 5-0 SU start and 3-1 ATS. They have been very good offensivley averaging 49.8 PPG while the D has bee n solid allowing an average of 12.8 PPG. Purdue is 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Boilermakers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. In their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record Purdue is 8-20 ATS. Purdue is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games played in October. The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Play on Penn State -.

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