Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Minnesota vs. Tennessee
The Vikings rebounded nicely after their gut wrenching loss to the Colts 2 weeks ago and we like them again today. The Titans rely heavily on the run game and that will have trouble today against the Vikings front 7. That should bring Kerry Collins back down to earth as he'll give the ball away at least a couple of times to help the Vikings win this game outright.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Denver (3-0, 1-1-1 ATS) at Kansas City (0-3, 1-2 ATS)
The Broncos, who are coming off two lucky home victories, make the trek to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the hapless Chiefs in an AFC West contest.
Denver, which benefited from an official’s mistake in beating the Chargers two weeks ago, barely got off the hook again last week, edging New Orleans 34-32 as a five-point home chalk after the Saints missed a late game-winning field goal try. QB Jay Cutler (21 of 34, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had another solid day, boosting his TD-to-INT ratio to 8-2, and WR Brandon Marshall (6 catches, 155 yards, 1 TD) also had a big game. However, the Broncos defense gave up a whopping 502 total yards, including 421 through the air.
Kansas City, playing musical quarterbacks so far this year, got throttled 38-14 by Atlanta as a 6½-point road underdog for its 12th straight loss (4-8 ATS). Tyler Thigpen was an awful 14 of 36 for 128 yards with one TD and three INTs, one of which was returned for a score. RB Larry Johnson (24 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD) fueled a 184-yard rushing attack, but the Chiefs defense gave up 186 yards on the ground.
With Thigpen having struggled in his first two starts, Chiefs coach Herm Edwards said that veteran Damon Huard will return under center for this game.
Denver won and covered both meetings between these rivals last year by a combined score of 68-18, ending a 3-0 ATS run by Kansas City. However, the home team is still 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 battles, and K.C. is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings at Arrowhead.
The Broncos are mired in ATS funks of 7-19-1 overall, 1-4 on the highway, 3-10-1 in divisional play, 2-5 in division road games, 1-6-1 against losing teams and 3-13-1 following a SU win. The Chiefs aren’t much better at the betting window, carrying negative ATS trends of 0-6 at home, 0-5 in AFC West play, 1-5 against winning teams and 2-6 after a SU loss.
The over has cashed in 10 of the last 13 Broncos-Chiefs clashes overall and six of the last seven in K.C. In addition, the over for Denver is on tears of 6-0 in September, 8-1 inside the division, 22-6-1 overall and 6-2 in roadies, and for Kansas City, the total has gone high in five of its last seven home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cleveland (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Cincinnati (0-3, 1-2 ATS)
Two instate rivals desperate for a win get together when the Browns make the short trip to Paul Brown Stadium for an AFC North clash with the Bengals.
Cleveland lost to Baltimore 28-10 as a one-point road pup in Week 3. QB Derek Anderson continued to struggle, going a dismal 14 of 37 for 125 yards with one TD against three INTs. The Browns finished with just 169 total yards, while allowing 273, and they were on the short end of a nearly 16-minute difference in time of possession.
Cincinnati easily had its best showing so far this year, taking the Super Bowl champion Giants to overtime before losing 26-23, cashing as a 13-point road ‘dog. QB Carson Palmer (27 of 39, 286 yards) finally tossed his first TD pass of the year, hitting WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (12 catches, 146 yards). The Bengals had no turnovers, but they didn’t force any either, and they gave up 406 yards.
Cincy has gone 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in the last seven games in this rivalry, with the home team winning and covering last year’s two meetings.
Despite the Browns’ slow start, they still sport ATS streaks of 13-5 overall, 5-2 in the AFC North, 5-1 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a SU loss. The Bengals are on ATS slides of 1-6 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against losing teams, but they are on a 9-3 cashing spree in their last 12 September starts.
Although these two teams were involved in 51-45 shootout in Cleveland last year, the under has been the smarter play for both squads recently. For the Browns, the under is on runs of 8-1 overall, 4-0 against losing teams and 5-1 against the AFC. The under for Cincinnati has cashed in seven of its last nine overall and is on further runs of 5-0 in division play, 4-0 at home and 6-1 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER
Houston (0-2 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars, coming off their first victory of the season, return home to Alltel Stadium to host the AFC South rival Texans.
Jacksonville knocked off Indianapolis 23-21 as a four-point road pup, winning on Josh Scobee’s 51-yard field goal in the final seconds. The Jags leaned heavily on a running game that produced an eye-popping 236 yards, as RBs Fred Taylor (26 carries, 121 yards) and Maurice Jones-Drew (19 carries, 107 yards, 1 TD) both cracked 100 yards. Jacksonville had a staggering 41:35-18:25 edge in time of possession and outgained the Colts 403-325.
Houston returned to action after a weather-imposed week off due to Hurricane Ike, but it wasn’t aided by the extra rest, losing 31-12 at Tennessee catching 4½ points. With rookie Steve Slaton (18 carries, 116 yards, 1 TD) leading the way, the Texans ran for 146, but QB Matt Schaub (17 of 37, 188 yards) proved to be their undoing with three INTs, including a late fourth-quarter pick returned 99 yards for a TD.
The Texans are 9-3 ATS in the short history of this rivalry, with the underdog going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The two teams split last year’s contests SU and ATS, with the host winning and cashing each time.
The Jaguars are on a 5-13 ATS slide as a division chalk and are on a 2-5 ATS dip in September games, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at Alltel, 6-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a spread-cover. The Texans are on ATS skids of 0-5 on the highway, 1-5 in division play, 3-9 against the AFC, 3-8 in September, 3-7 following a SU loss and 3-7 after a pointspread setback.
The under has been the play in four of the last five series meetings between these teams in Jacksonville. But the over for the Jags is on tears of 11-2-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 inside the division and 8-2-2 in AFC contests, and the over for Houston is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the road and 13-3 against AFC South foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Arizona (2-1 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Jets hope to get the Brett Favre era back on track when they return home to East Rutherford, N.J., for a non-conference contest against the Cardinals.
New York got pounded 49-28 at San Diego in prime time Monday night, falling way short as a nine-point road underdog. Favre threw 42 times, completing 30 for 271 yards and three TDs, but he had two INTs – one returned for a TD and the other converted into a 45-yard scoring drive. The Jets lost the turnover battle 4-1 and the time-of-possession battle by nearly five minutes.
Arizona is coming off a 24-17 loss at Washington as a three-point road underdog. QB Kurt Warner (16 of 30, 192 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) slipped a bit from his performance of the first two weeks, and in an otherwise evenly played game, the Cards lost the turnover battle 2-0 and had a six-minute time-of-possession deficit.
These two teams have met just once this decade, with New York taking a 13-3 road win as a three-point favorite in 2004.
The Jets are on a 2-6-1 ATS slide at home, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 after a SU loss and 12-5 after a pointspread setback. The Cardinals are on spread-covering runs of 6-1 in September, 10-3 after a SU loss and 8-3 after a non-cover.
The under for New York has cashed in four straight home games and is on further streaks of 6-1 overall, 6-0 against winning teams and 7-3-1 in September. Conversely, the over for Arizona is on tears of 8-3 overall, 37-15 on the road and 24-7 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Francisco (2-1 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Saints, who are a couple of plays away from being 3-0, look to get back in the win column at the Superdome when they take on the 49ers.
New Orleans, which gave up two TDs to blow a fourth-quarter lead at Washington two weeks ago, had a potential game-winning field goal go wide right last week in a 34-32 loss at Denver, thought the Saints cashed as a five-point pup. The missed field goal wasted a huge day from QB Drew Brees (39 of 48, 421 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), as the Saints finished with a whopping 502 total yards, while allowing 369.
San Francisco pounded Detroit 31-13 giving five points at home – which led the Lions to finally firing embattled team president Matt Millen. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (16 of 23, 189 yards, 2 TDs) was terrific, and the 49ers ran for 182 yards, paced by RB Frank Gore’s 130 yards and a TD on 27 carries. The Niners also forced a pair of turnovers while committing none in winning their second straight game.
New Orleans has owned this series of former division rivals, going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes. The Saints have won the last three meetings outright (2-1 ATS), including routs of 34-10 at home two years ago and 31-10 on the road last year. The favorite has cashed in four of the last five showdowns.
The Saints are in a 4-11 ATS decline as a home chalk dating to 2006, and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a spread-cover, but they won and covered at home against Tampa in Week 1 and they’ve cashed in four of their last five games following a SU defeat. Meanwhile, despite winning and cashing the past two weeks, the 49ers are in pointspread funks of 2-6 after an ATS win, 2-6 on the highway and 4-9 against the NFC.
New Orleans’ all-offense, no-defense philosophy has led to a bevy of high-scoring games, as the Saints are on over streaks of 6-0 overall, 6-0 at home, 14-3 versus NFC foes and 4-1 in September. The over is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Saints and Niners.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Atlanta (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Falcons, off to a surprising start behind a rookie QB and new head coach, travel north to Charlotte for an NFC South clash with the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Atlanta, seemingly getting it together quickly under coach Mike Smith, ripped lowly Kansas City 38-13 as a 6½-point home favorite in Week 3. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (12 of 18, 192 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) wasn’t asked to do much, but he didn’t make any mistakes, and RB Michael Turner (23 carries, 104 yards, 3 TDs) had another big day. The Falcons also forced three turnovers, returning an INT for a TD late in the fourth quarter.
Carolina tasted defeat for the first time in 2008 last week, blowing a 10-0 lead and losing 20-10 at Minnesota as a 3½-point underdog, with the Panthers failing to score in the second half. QB Jake Delhomme led an offense that generated just 204 total yards – to the Vikings’ 305 – and he was sacked five times and lost two of his three fumbles, with one of those run back for a TD just before halftime to tie the game at 10.
These division rivals split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and cashing each time. In fact, the visitor has covered the spread in the last five battles, and the Falcons are 13-6-4 ATS in the last 23 head-to-head meetings overall and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes in Carolina.
The Falcons are on a 3-9-1 pointspread slide as a division pup and are on additional ATS skids of 0-4 inside the division and 1-4 against winning teams. The Panthers are on a 3-7-1 ATS nosedive in Charlotte, but they still carry positive ATS trends of 4-1-1 overall and 4-0 after a SU loss.
Atlanta is on a 9-1 “over” tear overall, but the under is on a 32-12-1 in the team’s last 45 road games and 9-4 in its last 13 division tilts. Likewise, the under for Carolina is on runs of 11-5 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-1 in division play and 21-8-2 in September. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five straight games at Carolina and is 11-4-1 in the last 16 matchups overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (1-2 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (3-0 SU and ATS)
The Titans put their perfect mark on the line when they step outside the AFC for a clash against the Vikings at LP Field.
Tennessee breezed past Houston 31-12 as a 4½-point home favorite, easily cashing for the third straight week. QB Kerry Collins, who apparently will remain the starter even when Vince Young (knee) returns, had a serviceable effort in going 13-for-25 for 185 yards with one TD and one INT. He was aided by a ground attack that produced 158 yards, and a defense that picked off Houston’s Matt Schaub three times, with Cortland Finnegan returning the last one 99 yards for a TD with a little more than a minute to play to secure the spread-cover.
Minnesota broke through for its first win by beating Carolina 20-10 as a 3½-point home chalk, scoring 20 unanswered points after falling behind 10-0 early in the second quarter. New starting QB Gus Frerotte (16 of 28, 204 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) fared OK, but the Vikings defense was the difference, recovering two fumbles (one for a TD) and allowing just 204 total yards as Minnesota finished with a nearly nine-minute edge in time of possession.
The Vikings are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this series, though the two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Minnesota scored a 20-3 home win laying six points.
The Titans are on a 12-4 ATS tear at home against NFC foes, and they are on additional ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 7-0 in September and 4-1 against losing teams. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six outings overall.
The “under” has been the play for both these teams lately. For Tennessee, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 in September and 11-2-1 after a SU win, while the under for Minnesota is on runs of 7-2-1 in September, 22-6-1 after a pointspread win and 22-7-1 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Packers, coming off their first loss of the Aaron Rodgers era, make a trip to the Sunshine State to take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
Green Bay looks to bounce back from Sunday night’s lopsided 27-16 home loss to Dallas as a three-point pup. Rodgers had respectable numbers (22 of 39, 290 yards, no TDs, no INTs), but he lost 40 yards on five sacks and didn’t lead a TD drive until running it in from a yard out for a meaningless score late in the fourth quarter. The Pack also allowed 453 total yards, including RB Marion Barber’s 142 rushing yards and one TD.
Tampa Bay rallied past Chicago 27-24 in overtime as a three-point road pup, winning on a Matt Bryant 24-yard field goal. The Bucs pretty much conceded trying to run the ball, as QB Brian Griese threw a whopping 67 passes, completing 38 for 407 yards with two TDs and three INTs. Tampa, which trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter, pulled it out despite losing the turnover battle 4-2 and finishing with an eight-minute deficit in time of possession.
The Bucs beat Green Bay 17-16 as a three-point road favorite in 2005, the last time these two former division rivals met. The Packers have covered the last two contests after going 1-6-1 in the previous eight meetings.
The Buccaneers are on positive pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 7-2 as a home chalk, 5-1 in September and 19-9-2 when hosting non-division opponents. The Packers are also on several ATS runs, including 5-1 overall, 10-2-1 on the highway, 5-0-1 after a SU loss, 7-0-2 after a non-cover. But Green Bay is in ATS ruts of 4-9-4 against winning teams and 2-6-1 following a double-digit home loss.
The over for Green Bay is on stretches of 16-5 overall, 6-0 as a visitor and 13-3 against NFC foes, and the over for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 7-2 overall and 6-2 against the NFC. But in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 at Raymond James Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Buffalo (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-3 SU and ATS)
The surprising Bills look to stay perfect with a victory against the lackluster Rams in a non-conference contest at the Edward Jones Dome.
Buffalo rallied for a 24-23 home victory over Oakland, falling far short as a 10-point chalk. The Bills scored 17 fourth-quarter points, winning on Rian Lindell’s 38-yard field goal as time expired. QB Trent Edwards (24 of 39, 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was steady enough to help Buffalo overcome a 3-1 turnover deficit, and the Bills held a 378-247 total yardage edge and a nine-minute advantage in time of possession.
St. Louis got pounded 37-13 at Seattle last week getting nine points – the third straight week the Rams have been ‘dogs of nine or more and not come close to cashing. QB Marc Bulger (18 of 31, 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was mediocre in leading, and St. Louis got outgained 407-240. Following the setback to the Seahawks, the Rams – who have scored just 29 points all season – made a QB change, as veteran Trent Green will start against the Bills.
These two squads have squared off just once this decade in the regular season, with Buffalo rolling 37-17 as a two-point home favorite in 2004.
The Bills are on a bevy of ATS tears, including 5-1 against the NFC, 5-2 in roadies, 12-4 on turf, 10-4-1 after a SU win and 38-18-3 against losing teams. Conversely, the Rams sport nothing but negative pointspread numbers, including 0-6 overall, 0-5 as a home ‘dog, 2-7 at home, 5-16 against winning teams and 7-21-3 in September.
The under for Buffalo has cashed in four straight on the highway and is on further streaks of 4-1 against losing teams and 12-5 in September. For St. Louis, the over is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 8-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
San Diego (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at Oakland (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Chargers, who finally nabbed their first win of the season last week, travel up the California coast for a matchup with the division rival Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
San Diego whipped the Jets 48-29 on Monday night as a heavy nine-point favorite. QB Philip Rivers overcame an early INT return for a touchdown to finish an efficient 19 of 25 for 250 yards and three TDs, and the Chargers won the turnover battle 4-1, with CB Antonio Cromartie returning one of his two picks for a TD.
Oakland blew a 16-7 fourth-quarter lead in losing at Buffalo 24-23 a week ago, though the Raiders cashed as a 10-point pup. JaMarcus Russell (9 of 19, 156 yards, 1 TD) still hasn’t thrown an INT this season, but the Raiders generated just 247 total yards against the Bills in failing to take advantage of a 3-1 turnover edge.
San Diego has ripped off nine straight victories against Oakland (8-1 ATS, all as a favorite), including winning and cashing in both contests last year. The Bolts are on a 6-0 ATS run at Oakland, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes.
The Chargers are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 45-21-3 overall, 5-0-1 on the highway, 8-1 after a SU win, 8-1 after a spread-cover, 19-7-4 in AFC West play, 8-3-1 in divisional road tilts and 5-0 against squads with a losing record. On the flip side, Oakland is on ATS freefalls of 11-29-1 at McAfee Coliseum since 2003, 2-11 in divisional home games and 5-13 as a home pup.
For San Diego, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 12-3-2 on the road and 6-0 in September, and the over for Oakland is on streaks of 6-1 in September, 4-1 inside the division and 8-2 overall. However, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Chargers-Raiders tussles
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The Cowboys look to keep rolling when they welcome the NFC East rival Redskins to Texas Stadium.
Dallas coasted past Green Bay 27-16 in prime time Sunday night as a three-point road chalk. QB Tony Romo (17 of 30, 260 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was steady, but the Cowboys’ running game stole the show, pounding out 217 yards, including 142 and a TD from Marion Barber. Also, the Cowboys defense yielded just three field goals before giving up a meaningless late TD.
Washington held off Arizona 24-17 giving three points at home for its second straight win and cover (both at home). QB Jason Campbell (22 of 30, 193 yards, 2 TDs) was solid, and the Redskins were turnover-free while forcing a pair of Cardinals miscues.
The Redskins have cashed in five of the last six games in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. In last yea’s battle at Texas Stadium, Washington lost 28-23 but covered as a heavy 11-point pup. The underdog is on a 17-4 ATS tear when these teams meet, though the host is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups, and Dallas is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests at Texas Stadium.
The Cowboys are on pointspread dips of 2-6 overall, 0-5 in the NFC East, 1-5 in home division games and 3-7 laying more than seven points. The Redskins, meanwhile, are just 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 roadies, but they are on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 21-8-1 against winning teams.
The under for Dallas has been the play in six of its last seven overall and is also on a 5-1 run versus NFC foes, and the under for Washington is on streaks of 5-1 in September and 5-2 in division play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and UNDER
Philadelphia (2-1, 3-0 ATS) at Chicago (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Eagles, who are perfect at the betting window so far, hit the highway for the second time this year when invade Soldier Field to take on the Bears.
Philadelphia last week grinded out a 15-6 victory over Pittsburgh laying 3½ points at home, outscoring the Steelers by a less-than-robust 5-0 margin in the second half. QB Donovan McNabb (24 of 35, 196 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was mediocre in a game that was fairly ugly all the way around, with both teams committing three turnovers and Philly gaining just 260 total yards – yet holding the Steelers to just 180 total yards.
Chicago squandered a 10-point fourth-quarter lead last week against Tampa Bay, falling 27-24 in overtime as a three-point home favorite. QB Kyle Orton (22 of 34, 268 yards) offset two TD passes with a pair of INTs, and though both teams moved the ball (454-405 total yardage edge for Tampa), the Bears’ defense gave up a ridiculous 407 passing yards to journeyman QB Brian Griese.
Chicago beat Philadelphia 19-16 catching 5½ points on the road last year, ending the Eagles’ 5-0 SU run (3-2 ATS) in this rivalry. In addition, the underdog and the road team are both 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Philly is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games, including cashing in the last seven in a row. The Eagles also sport ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against the NFC and 4-1 in September.
The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread downturns of 4-10 at Soldier Field and 1-6-1 in September.
The over has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last six on the road, but otherwise the team is in the midst of under stretches of 5-2 overall and 19-7-3 against losing teams. Meanwhile, the over for Chicago is on runs of 16-5 at home and 20-6-1 in conference contests. Finally, the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Houston / Jacksonville
Play:3* Houston +7
Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Jacksonville last 3 years. Jacksonville is only scoring 16.7 points per game overall this year. Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4. Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4. Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. We'll play Houston for 3 units today!
Re: Sunday Service Plays
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Play: San Francisco 49ers +4.5
The 49ers are one of the up and coming teams in the NFL and they couldn't be facing the Saints at a better time. Drew Brees has lost two of his best weapons in WR Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey. This allows the 49ers defense to key on RB Reggie Bush. Bush has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and should struggle once again against Patrick Willis and the 49ers front seven.
Brees will try to spread the ball around, but WR's Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are too inconsistent. Brees will be forced to focus on getting the ball to Bush and the 49ers will be ready. San Francisco is allowing just 160.7 passing yards per game -- seventh in the NFL. They have allowed just two passing TD's and 5.5 yards per pass attempt while picking off four passes. Those stats include games against two pretty good QB's -- Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck. Opposing QB's have a 59.3 rating against the 49ers defense this season.
Offensively, the 49ers are running on all cylinders under new OC Mike Martz. He brought QB J.T. O'Sullivan and WR Isaac Bruce with him -- two players familiar with his offense. RB Frank Gore may be new to this offense, but he has had no trouble adjusting and Martz has made it a point to get Gore the ball often.
"We've got so much stuff in our offense now," said Gore, who ran 27 times for a season-high 130 yards and a touchdown last week. "It felt so great to move the ball like that. The pass game is a whole lot better, and the more we throw the ball, the better it is for me in the running game. It's going to be crazy all year. We're going to do a lot of good things."
The Saints defense will be hard-pressed to stop Gore on the ground and the 49ers passing game. The Saints are allowing 133.3 rushing yards per game (22nd in the NFL) and 5.3 yards per rush (29th in the NFL). New Orleans is also allowing 258.7 passing yards per game (29th in the NFL) and 27.7 points per game (27th in the NFL). Martz should have little trouble keeping the Saints defense on their heels, led by Gore.
We have a super situation backing us here, which says to play AGAINST NFL home teams that are 1-2 on the season (NEW ORLEANS) off an ATS win of more than 3 points vs. an opponent that did not lose ATS in their last game. This situation is 12-1 ATS (92% WINNERS).
The 49ers are the better defensive team and the better running team. Getting points with that combo is a definite bonus. Do not be surprised by an outright upset.
Take San Francisco +4.5
Re: Sunday Service Plays
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orelans
This Sunday we’ll get to find out if the San Francisco 49ers are for real and contenders for the NFC West or just an average team that caught the Seahawks unprepared and expectedly defeated the one of the NFC’s punching bags, the Detroit Lions. I tend to think the Niners are on the upswing but, probably not ready to challenge for a playoff spot or the NFC West.
Despite the fact, there are thirteen games remaining on the regular season schedule, the Saints need to win this Sunday to even their record at (2-2) against a team they are expected to beat and give their team a chance to be in the playoff hunt when they return some key people from injuries. (WR Marques Colston, TE Jeremy Shockey) The Saints will also need to evaluate their special teams and determine if K Martin Gramatica is the guy they want to stick with for the rest of the season or bring in someone else who if nothing else, would have a stronger leg, better accuracy and can perform in the clutch. Grammatica missed a 43 yard attempt in the closing seconds of Sunday’s game with the Broncos which could have had the Saints sitting comfortably at (2-1) with a little cushion in the standings.
The 49ers still have suit-wearing head coach Mike Nolan, a no-nonsense guy who is in his fourth year at the helm and needs this year’s team to show it is on the verge of challenging for the playoffs or he will probably be gone. His best year was 2006 (7-9) when number one overall draft pick, QB Alex Smith, was running the offense and being tutored by the well-respected, offensive mind of Norv Turner. Turner left after 2006 to become the Chargers head coach and Smith and the offense took a couple of steps backwards. Nolan brought in Mike Martz to run the offense, who’s always looking for a head coaching job to step into. Smith lost his job to journeyman J.T. O’Sullivan and the offense has begun to show signs of returning to life. Martz, who would throw on every down if he could, must not forget to include the offense’s biggest and most reliable weapon, RB Frank Gore who’s already run for 287 yds. and 3 TDs in three games while averaging 4.8 yard per carry. The wide receiver corps in nondescript now, but could be well known in a short time with Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Isaac Bruce and TE Vernon Davis who has the tools to be a superstar. The defense is young and improving with 2n year LB Patrick Willis who in his first season. was voted to the Pro Bowl and named the NFC defensive rookie of the year. Strong-legged PK Joe Nedney is battle tested and very consistent to fortify the special teams.
The Saints have been beset by injuries early and their season may depend on how soon and how well those injured bodies come back. Despite the injuries, head coach Sean Payton’s offense should be able to weather the storm over the short term while it needs the defense to step up and make some stops. The secondary has been and remains the sore spot on this team and with basically the same personnel as years past, it’s hard to believe this deficiency can be shored up short term or for the season. RB Reggie Bush is an all-purpose player that gives opposing defenses fits. It doesn’t look like Duece McAllister is going to return to form from knee surgery so the ground game cannot be depended on. Drew Brees is a decent quarterback and sometimes phenomenal when given time despite being smallish in size for the position. The NFC South is a wide open race between the Saints, Tampa Bay and Carolina so making the playoffs is not out of the question for New Orleans. However, they can’t afford to lose anymore games with a subpar kicker if they hope to make the postseason.
The line on this game opened with the New Orleans - 6 points and a total of 51. That total has since dropped to 48. I’m thinking this game is going to be a track meet with both offenses shredding the opposing defenses. Take this one to go over 48 points
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC action in the Florida sun between two teams at crossroads in their seasons. Houston, dramitically affected by Hurricane Ike is o-2 following last weeks thrashing by the Titans 31-12. Starting QB Matt Schaub has been ineffective 17-37 for 188yds and 3 int last week, and WR Andre Johnson is struggling along with Schaub. Rookie RB Steve Slaton out of West Virginia has been a bright spot in the absence of Ahman Green. Slaton rushed for 116 yds and a score last week.
Jacksonville has problems of it’s own. Their last second win at Indy 23-21 got the Jags to 1-2 on the campaign. Last season QB David Garrard was very effective at managing the offense and not making game changing mistakes. This season Garrard’s 4 int’s have eclipsed his total from last year behind a make-shift offensive line which has adversely affected his play. Last week the ground game got going behind 100 yd+ performances from Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor . The Jags need more of that if a playoff run is in their future.
Houston’s offensive woes and defensive shortcomings will shine through this weekend again. Schaub is on the verge of being benched and a bad performance this weekend should seal the deal. Look for big #’s from the Jags ground game and a better effort from Garrard to equal a big Jacksonville win to get back to .500!
TAKE THE JAGUARS-7 1/2
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Falcons @ Panthers
Atlanta (2-1) stuffed the hapless Chiefs for 6 consecutive three-and-outs to open the game and added 3 picks of 2nd-year QB Tyler Thigpen to secure a 38-14 victory last week at the Georgia Dome. Veteran safeties Erik Coleman (21 T, FR, INT) and Lawyer Milloy (22 T, INT) can certainly hold their own but this was a breakout game for Emmitt Thomas’s young cornerbacks. 5’10” 185 1st-year LCB Brent Grimes (11 T, INT) and 5’11” 175 2nd-year RCB Chris Houston (7 T, INT) each recorded their first career interceptions against Kansas City while 5’11” 185 rookie nickel back Chevis Jackson (5 T) is catching on for a unit that has allowed just 170.0 yards passing per game at a stingy 5.5 yards per attempt. The numbers are good so far but these kids will still likely take their lumps this season. Up front, defensive linemen Anderson (9 T), Babineaux (10 T, S), and Jackson (6 T) have not been great against the rush at 136.7 yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry but 6’4” 266 John “The Predator” Abraham (8 T, 2 FR) has been terrorizing the pocket, registering his 5th and NFL-best 6th sacks last week. Behind Abraham, WLB Coy Wire (6 T) has been decent in heavy substitution for Michael Boley (15 T), who has been battling a knee injury. Keep your eye on this situation. 6’0” 248 rookie MLB Curtis Lofton (18 T) has been up to stuffing the run in front of him but the key to success here will be the health of Boley and 11th-year SLB Keith Brooking (20 T) in space. The offense of 1st-year Coordinator Mike Mularkey has averaged 27.0 points per game but 34 and 38 at home against the defenses of Detroit and Kansas City don’t get us too excited. 6’4” 220 rookie QB Matt Ryan (34 of 64 for 511 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT) has done a surprisingly good job at getting the ball downfield effectively (8.0 yards per pass attempt) including a 70-yard TD strike to underrated WR Roddy White (11 for 232 and TD) but the emphasis for first year Head Coach Mike Smith will wisely be the run. The Falcons lead the league with 203.0 yards rushing per game at 5.7 yards per carry and 6 scores on the ground led by the Human Hammer that is 5’10” 244 Michael Turner (59 for 366 and 5 TD). Turner wears on defenses by refusing to go down without giving at least as good as he gets and is paired with a superb all around back in 5’11” 202 RB Jerious Norwood (31 for 186 and TD), who has added 4 grabs for 44 yards and is averaging 24.1 yards per kickoff return. All this behind a young offensive line that includes 6’5” 312 rookie LT Sam Baker is impressive but we just can’t help but come back to the level of competition so far. In their lone road game, the Falcons were schooled 24-9 by Tampa Bay.
Carolina (2-1) continued to under perform on offense in their 20-10 loss at Minnesota last week and their offensive line was again the culprit. 11 false start penalties over the last 2 contests and 9 surrendered sacks on the season, including a game-changer that led to a fumble return TD by the Vikings, have hamstrung Coach John Fox’s (58-48 in 7th season) crew into poor down-and distance situations. Rookie 6’6” 330 RT Jeff Otah is raw while 6’4” 305 LT Jordan Gross has struggled against top-flight rushers and backup LT Geoff Hangartner has played in place of Travelle Wharton who has missed the last pair with a knee injury. Otah has the feet to improve, Wharton will likely go this week, and Gross…has sucked most of his career! When this unit gets its act together, the Panthers have enough firepower to compete with anyone. 10th-year QB Jake Delhomme (52 of 91 for 566 yards, TD, INT) has the ability to be elite and got 5’9” 185 WR Steve Smith (4 for 70 yards) back last week from suspension to add to big targets 6’2” 215 WR Muhsin Muhammad (14 for 140), 6’2” 208 WR DJ Hackett (8 for 107), 6’3” 206 TE Jeff King (6 for 55), and 2nd-year 6’4” 250 TE Dante Rosario who appears to be breaking out with 10 grabs for 120 yards and a score. Don’t hold your breath on WR Dwayne Jarrett; this kid just doesn’t get what it takes to be a professional. Our pick for the best back in the 2008 NFL Draft, Oregon’s 5’10 235 rookie Jonathan Stewart (31 for 145 yards and 3 TD) clearly does get it and paired with an explosive guy like 5’9” 217 RB DeAngelo Williams (39 for 144 yards) he remains fresh to impact the kick return game (24.8 yards per) where he had an 86-yarder called back against the Vikings. The Panther defense showed that they aren’t quite what they used to be when Minnesota put away Sunday’s game with a 19-play, 11:34 minute field goal drive that spanned the third and fourth quarters but they are decent and Coordinator Mike Trgovac’s defensive line displayed some spark last trip with 3 team sacks. 6’5” 345 LDT Maake Kemoeatu (7 T) and 6’2” 301 RDT Damione Lewis (9 T, S) bring the beef in the middle while 6’6” 280 LDE Tyler Brayton (9 T) bookends with 6’7” 283 RDE Julius Peppers (7 T, S) who since the injury has been just an above average player. 6’0” 237 2nd-year MLB Jon Beason (25 T) continues to make his place in the league alongside WLB Thomas Davis (22 T, FR) and SLB Na’il Diggs (11 T, S) but keep your eye on Tim Lewis’s defensive backfield, that has only produced a single pick so far. Corners Chris Gamble (17 T, INT) and Ken Lucas (9 T) are pretty good but we aren’t so sure about safeties 5’11” 205 rookie FS Charles Godfrey (13 T, S) and 6’0” 205 SS Chris Harris (19 T, 2 FR). Neither brings a ton of size to stopping the run (113.0 yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry) and we think they can be had by better passing games than the Bears and Vikings that they have faced the last 2 weeks.
SELECTION: Our 2008 NFL Blowout of the Year was on the Falcons last week while Minnesota earned a best bet ranking over the Panthers but we must change course this week. Home field and playing surface was key in those situations and the neither favors the Falcons this week. The Panthers are talented enough to beat Mike Smith’s young corners through the air when they aren’t beating them on the ground plus Atlanta’s plus-4 turnover margin won’t last. Take Carolina -7!
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Camping World RV 400 at Kansas Speedway
Last Week: Greg Biffle won his second straight Chase race, at Dover, and we had him at +800 in a straight-up bet. That made it a mighty fine week, indeed. We won one unit on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 200% for the week, and for the season we're now up to a profit of 6.19 units on 35 units wagered, a return of 17.7%. We've also given you a winning week in 20 of 27 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost won six units on three units wagered, a return of 200%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 18.73 units on 102 units wagered, a return of 18.4%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Jimmie Johnson (+450), 1/6th unit. This week, the Chase heads to Kansas, a cookie-cutter mile-and-a-half track with banking a bit more shallow than Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. The closest equivalent may in fact be Fontana, which is a half-mile longer and with slightly less banking; it just so happens that Johnson absolutely pole-axed the field at Fontana last month. While J.J. hasn't won a race at this track, he's been the cookie-cutter king for years. I give him a great shot to take the points lead Sunday.
Take Carl Edwards (+400), 1/6th unit. And if it's not Johnson, it'll probably be King Carl. Edwards had the field completely covered in the first four cookie-cutter events this year: he won three of them, and should've won an Atlanta race where he blew an engine late with a big lead. Edwards's advantage on this track style hasn't been nearly as pronounced since then, though he did win at Michigan in that venue's second event this season, and I expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday.
Take Matt Kenseth (+1200), 1/6th unit. The chic third pick will be to take Greg Biffle (+500), who won each of the first two Chase races. And Biffle was mighty good to us last week. But those who point to Biffle's win at this track in this event last year might not remember that was a fuel-mileage race where the event was stopped for a couple hours because of a huge wreck, and they basically ran out of daylight, giving Biffle the "still-standing" win when he didn't stop for fuel. Kenseth still hasn't won a race in 2008, and actually has a litany of crummy finishes at this joint, but he has two top-fives this year at both Fontana and Michigan, and top-10s at Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. Consistency like that is hard to duplicate, and the No. 17 bunch will be motivated to get a win before the season ends. I know Kyle Busch (+450) has a chance to bounce back, too, and he's been the best driver on this track style all year. But I think he'll push too hard and fall again, while Milwaukee Matt may just sneak into Victory Lane.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Arizona at N.Y. JETS
We split our FREE action on the college gridiron Saturday and we've got a winner coming your way today in the NFL as we play the Cardinals in New York taking on the Jets.
The Cardinals didn't bother to fly back to the Arizona desert after losing to Washington last week. They stayed on the East Coast to prepare for today's matchup with the Jets. Meanwhile New York was in San Diego for a Monday night game, got clobbered, and then had to fly back east and now play the Cardinals on a short week of preparation.
Arizona lost 24-17 at Washington as a three-point road 'dog last week and it was the two turnovers that did in the Cardinals. They looked great in the first two weeks of the season, wins in San Francisco and a blowout win at home over the Dolphins. Arizona is on ATS streaks of 6-1 in September, 10-3 after a straight-up loss and 8-3 after they fail to cash in a contest.
The Cards have the offense to be a threat in the NFC but have to shore up the defense. It shouldn't be too hard to look good against the Jets today.
New York got pummeled at San Diego Monday, losing 49-28 as a nine-point road 'dog and QB Brett Favre looked his age. he threw two very ugly INTs and while he did have 271 yards and three TDs, a lot of the yardage came late and one of the TD passes was set up by a long kick return. And he was limping at the end of the game and you know the older the guy his the longer it takes to recover. So look for him to be even a step slower today.
The Jets are 2-6-1 ATS at home in their last nine and have looked terrible the last two weeks. And remember, they were a play away from losing to the Dolphins in the opening week. Play the Cardinals to get it done in New York today.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Sports Gambling Hotline
Buffalo at ST. LOUIS
Well, there is no doubt the Rams have stunk up the joint through the first 3 weeks of the long season, and now they are making a quarterback change, as Trent Green will be under center in today's game against the Bills.
We are not sure we want to lay the big road impost, but we do definitely like this game to head OVER the total, as the Rams have allowed a whopping 116-points in 3 games thus far, while Buffalo has put up 78-points in their 3 wins this season.
St. Louis' lone home game this season went way OVER the posted price, and they have now gone OVER the posted price at an 11-5-1 clip since the 2006 season, and an overall HIGH run of 17-8-1 their last 26 games at the Edward Jones Dome.
We have to believe the Bills will enjoy playing indoors as opposed to the inclement weather they usually face at home throughout the year.
Play the OVER in this Buffalo-St. Louis contest.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
San Diego -7' at OAKLAND
The G-Man likes the Chargers, fresh off their Monday night romp of the Jets to head up the California coast, and drill division-rival Oakland in this AFC West battle.
Oakland did everything but win last Sunday at Buffalo, and after consecutive road swings to Kansas City, and Buffalo, and the threat of coach Lane Kiffing getting axed, the G-Man expects the rout to be on before too long in this one.
San Diego has thoroughly dominated this series, as they have won the last 9 meetings straight up, and 9-1 against the spread. Included is 6 straight covers in the Black Hole.
The points haven't helped the Raiders very much in their back yard, as Oakland is one a money-burning 11-29-1 against the spread slide their last 41 home games.
Go right ahead, and lay the wood with the road favorite Bolts today.
5♦ SAN DIEGO
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Washington at DALLAS
When rivalries collide that are as steeped in tradition as this one is, offenses tend to get in gear, and that's what you can expect this week with the Redskins and Cowboys. Add Dallas' extremely potent offense to the mix this year, and you've got a great recipe for the over. The Cowboys (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have put up at least 27 points in all three of their games this year, including a 41-point outburst two weeks ago at home against Philadelphia -- and the Eagles racked up 37 points in that outing as the game sailed over the posted price of 46.
And like Washington, Philly is an NFC East rival of the Cowboys. See what I mean about great rivalries and high-scoring games? The over for Dallas is on a 7-1 tear following a spread-cover, and it is 13-6-1 in the Cowboys' last 20 games against winning teams. Plus, last year's meeting between these two at Texas Stadium produced a 28-23 Dallas victory to clear the posted price of 47. The over is due in this one.
1♦ OVER Redskins/Cowboys
San Francisco at NEW ORLEANS
If the Saints are playing, you might as well dial in on the over from the get-go, because they tend to rack up yards and points. New Orleans has gone over in all three of its games this season, including a 34-32 shootout loss at Denver last week, flying way over the posted line of 51 1/2.
In fact, the over is on a 16-6 tear for the Saints in their last 22 games overall, including a current 8-0 spree, and the over is on additional runs of 6-0 at the Superdome and 14-3 for New Orleans against the NFC. The 49ers should aid in pushing the total up, as they've put up 33 and 31 points, respectively, in winning their last two games.
And the last seven times these former NFC West rivals have gotten together, the total has gone high five times. Put your money on the over.
1♦ OVER 49ers/Saints
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Cleveland at CINCINNATI
Take the over in the Browns-Bengals game this afternoon.
Both teams come into this game winless, and while that’s not unusual for Cincinnati, the Browns were expected to challenge Pittsburgh for the AFC North title this year.
Cleveland’s secondary is very beat up right now, and even though Cincinnati is struggling again I do expect Carson Palmer to light up the Browns defense at home.
Cleveland should be in full panic mode right now, and you know what they say about backing an animal into a corner. The Browns have the weapons on offense, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them put up their share of points too.
The Browns and Bengals have both played under the total for the most part recently, but a lot of that was due to matching up against top defenses and weather conditions.
Neither one of these teams emphasizes defense, so look for the scoreboard operator to stay busy this afternoon.
Take the over.
Houston +7 at JACKSONVILLE
Take the points with the Texans this afternoon on the road over the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is in a potential flat spot after their last-second, comeback win at Indianapolis last week. They have Pittsburgh on deck next Sunday night; so don’t be surprised if they take their division rival lightly today.
Houston is 9-3 ATS in this series, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The Jags are on a 5-13 ATS slide as a division chalk and are 2-5 ATS in September games.
The Texans have had to deal with the distraction of Hurricane Ike in the early part of the season, but after getting back to action last week I expect them to be sharper today.
Take the points as Houston stays within the number.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
I realize that Atlanta’s two victories this year have come at home against two of the three worst teams in the NFL (Chiefs and Lions). But let’s not forget that it wasn’t long ago – say about two months ago – that the Falcons were the laughingstock of the NFL. Besides, it’s not like the two wins over Kansas City and Detroit were nail-biters – both were double-digit routs, with rookie QB Matt Ryan (353 total passing yards, two TDs, no INTs) pl and new RB Michael Turner (324 total rushing yards, 5 TDs) playing brilliantly.
Now, there’s no doubt that Atlanta is stepping up in class this week against the Panthers, just as it did in its first road game against another divisional rival (Tampa Bay) in Week 2. But with his first NFL road game under his belt, I expect Ryan to play much better than he did in that 24-9 loss to the Buccaneers. More importantly, I look for Atlanta’s unheralded defense (19.7 points, 306.7 yards per game allowed) to continue its strong play against a Panthers offense that was stuck in neutral in last week’s 20-10 loss at Minnesota (Carolina managed just 204 yards against the Vikings, one week after amassing only 216 yards against the Bears at home).
Finally, there’s some strong trends that definitely favor the Falcons here. For one thing, the road team has won each of the last five meetings in this rivalry (5-0 ATS), including Atlanta’s 20-13 triumph in Carolina last year. Also, the Panthers have been a dreadful bet on their own turf in recent years, going 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 in Charlotte, They’re also a pathetic 6-19 ATS in their last 25 divisional home games as a favorite!
In the end, Carolina wins what figures to be a very low-scoring affair, but it’ll be a lot closer than the experts would have you believe. Take the points.
4♦ ATLANTA FALCONS
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Atlanta / Carolina
These NFC South rivals meet twice every year, and when they do, the games tend to be low-scoring. The under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings, including three of the last four. Last year's meeting in Charlotte went below the 35 1/2-point price in a 20-13 Atlanta victory. Since 2006, the under has gone 13-6 in roadies for the Falcons and 11-5-1 for the Panthers at home.
And with the Falcons fielding a rookie QB in Matt Ryan, look for them to ride RB Michael Turner in an effort to shorten the game. Carolina's typically physical play also lends itself to a low-scoring affair. Seven of the Panthers' last eight home games have gone low, and the under is on runs of 4-1 in division play and 11-5 overall for Carolina. Go for the under in this matchup.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
For Sunday take the Cardinals at the Meadowlands.
No doubt asking Arizona to have to win a road game like this in order to cover is not the greatest deal ever as they are still the Arizona Cardinals but I just do not trust Brett Favre and my J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets right now.
I liked the men in green in San Diego and watched a disorganized team get smacked around by the Chargers. In the previous game New York was soundly beaten at home by the Tom Brady-les Patriots. I do believe that Eric Mangini's squad is talented and made some great offseason moves with Favre, Jenkins and Faneca but right now the Jets have no momentum and a Quarterback who just is not on the same page as his receivers.
On the opposite extreme the Cards are playing very good ball so far in the young season with their immense talent in the skilled positions. They did just come up short 24-17 in Washington but the Redskins are a solid overall team that in the nation's capital should be hard to beat.
Boldin and Fitzgerald are an unreal duo and Kurt Warner is a rejuvenated signal caller who should be just fine once again here. Plus Edgerrin James looks a bit more like the Edgerrin James we were used to seeing in Indianapolis.
I think this game will be a tight competitive contest, as the number suggests, but in the end I'll grab the team with the guys that can make more plays and that is definitely the Cardinals!
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Your Sunday selection is the Denver Broncos.
All Denver today. Yes in what is one of the bigger mismatches of the day I say lay the road points as Denver rolls all over the hapless Chiefs. You see we all know about the Broncos powerful offense this year and one that was good enough to sweep Kansas City both SU/ATS last year by outscoring the Chiefs 68-18. Well due to Kansas City having loss their last 12 games straight up and going 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games don’t expect anything less then another Denver blowout. Flat out due to the Chiefs awful offense that can’t decide on a quarterback Kansas City just does not have enough offense to keep today’s game close enough.