System Smashers

System Smashers

System Smashers
By ASA 

These are simply point spread observations and NOT our selections!

Wisconsin @ Michigan (+6.5) – This is a historical moment for the Badger program. Why? Because they have NEVER been favored at Michigan. That means never, ever! Until this Saturday that is. The Wolverines have been a home dog just 11 times in the last 29 years! The Maize and Blue have won 5 of those 11 games outright. This is the first time since 1991 that Michigan has been a home dog to anyone other than Ohio State or Penn State.

Virginia @ Duke (-6) – The Devils are 1-0 ATS as a favorite this year but they have been absolutely horrendous in that role leading up to this season. Since 1996, Duke has been favored just 12 times leading up to the 2008 season. They were just 1-11 ATS (8%) in that role. What’s even worse is the fact that they only won TWO of those 12 games outright as a chalk.

Pittsburgh (-15.5) @ Syracuse – The Panthers definitely don’t seem to be comfortable with the role of big road favorite. Since the start of the 1982 season, Pitt has been a road favorite of more than two TD’s just 10 times. They are only 2-8 ATS in those games. These two rivals have met every year since 1980. This is the highest number Pitt has had to lay in this game since 1983 when they were an 18.5 point favorite. Between 1984 and 2001, the Panthers were dominated by the Orange with a SU record of just 1-16-1. However, since that time, Pitt has now won 4 of the last 5 meetings SU.

TCU @ Oklahoma (-18) – Déjà vu? The last time this solid TCU program was an underdog of 17 or more was right here in Norman back in 2005. That’s when the Horned Frogs waltzed into Oklahoma Memorial Stadium as a 25-point dog and beat the mighty Sooners 17-10. It was no fluke as the TCU defense held OU to just 14 first downs and 225 total yards. The Frogs also had nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge.

Michigan State @ Indiana (+8.5) – The Spartans usually cannot be trusted when laying points on the road in Big Ten play. MSU has been a road favorite of more than a TD in the Big Ten just 12 times since 1990. They are a money burning 3-9 ATS in that role. MSU has rolled in this series however winning 19 of the 25 games played since 1980. They are also 13-6 ATS (68%) the last 19 meetings.

North Carolina @ Miami (FL) (-7) – The Canes are not in a spot here that has been good to them in the past. As a favorite of a TD or more, Miami has struggled to a 10-20 spread record since the 2003 season. UNC has a road win already this season at Rutgers. However, SU victories away from home have been few and far between for the Heels who were 1-12 SU on the road since 2005 entering this season.

Buffalo @ Central Michigan (-7) – Since October of 2005, CMU is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite. The Chippewas average margin of victory in those games is 18 points. The Bulls have had nearly zero success on the road as far as winning games outright. Of their last 39 road games, Buffalo has won just 3 of them SU. However, the Bulls are a very good 6-1 ATS in the second of back to back road games dating back to 2006.

Cincinnati @ Akron (+10) – Surprisingly, these two Ohio teams have met just three times since 1980. The most recent meeting was in 2006 when Cincy won at home 20-14 as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bearcats have been a double digit road favorite just six times since 1980. All of those games, however have been since 2001 including three times last year. They are just 1-5 ATS in that role. On the reverse side, Akron has been a HD of 10 or more just three times. The covered all of those games. This is the first time since 2002 the Zips have fallen into this spot.

Minnesota @ Ohio State (-18) – As expected, the Buckeyes have dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings SU. The average score over those 21 meetings is OSU 35, Minn 14. OSU is also 13-5 ATS the last 18 tilts with the Golden Gophers. The Buckeyes have cashed in at the window 7 of the last 8 times they’ve been a favorite of more than 17 at home vs. Big Ten foes.

Fresno State @ UCLA (+7) – The Bruins are 1-1 ATS as a home dog this year, but historically this is a spot that has treated them and their backers well. Including their two games this year as a home puppy, UCLA is 17-5 ATS in that role going all the way back to 1992. Fresno has been a 7-point or more favorite just one time when visiting a Pac 10 foe. That was back in 1992 @ Oregon State when the Bulldogs were favored by 12 points but lost outright 46-36.

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