Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Fisher

Minnesota U vs. Ohio State
Play:Minnesota U +19

First before we analyze this game lets look back at Friday Night selection where I selected Louville. After looking at these STATS Who would you think would win this game. 504 Net yds Louville 279 Net yds UCONN The score should of been 42-20 However the injury to Starting QB for UCONN was a blessing in disguise. Zach Frazier came in and did nothing special but did not make a mistake. Why did Uconn win? Three things that are hard to HC. TO's, Penalties, and Kicking game. I knew kicking game would be weak but WOW. Louville left 9 points on board cause of 3 failed 4th down conversions. So UConn bent but did not break. UConn will not get away again with a quality apponent by being one dimensional.Take Minnesota with 4-0 record like UConn. They have been doing well with TO ratio. Look for them to hang in this game long enough but will lose to the Buckeyes. Buckeyes 27 Gophers 14


Fresno State vs. UCLA     
Play:Fresno State -7

Despite throwing out TWO offensive duds against BYU and Arizona UCLA still gets respect from VEGAS. Fresno State is not as good as UA or BYU but still a touchdown better than an inept UCLA Bruin offense. They racked up 55 points in last game and battled a tough Wisconsin football team. Take Fresno State because they know how to score unlike UCLA. Fresno 24 UCLA 10

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Steve Janus

Tennessee U vs. Auburn    
Play:Auburn -6½

Watch for Auburn to get back on track in the SEC at home against Tennessee. The Vols have looked intimidated at times this season and there's almost no home team in the nation that's more intimidating than the Tigers. Tennessee has some serious holes on defense that Auburn should exploit early and often. Big SEC winner here for the Tigers.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Rocketman

Fresno State / UCLA 
Play:1* Fresno State -7

Fresno State is averaging 39.5 points per game on the road this year.  UCLA's offense is scoring only 12.3 points per game overall this year and their defense is allowing 38 points per game overall this season.  Fresno State is 3-1 ATS overall vs UCLA since 1992.  Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Bulldogs are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win.  Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. We'll play Fresno State for 1 unit today!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

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North Carolina (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (2-1, 1-1 ATS)

North Carolina enters this key ACC matchup at the Orange Bowl with questions at the quarterback spot as they will be without starting QB T.J. Yates when they take on Miami.

North Carolina was on top of Virginia Tech 10-3 last Saturday and about to go up 17-3 when Yates (623 yards passing with six TDs and one INT this season) went down with a broken ankle in the second half. The offense managed nothing after redshirt freshman Mike Paulus took over, and the Heels’ defense didn’t help either as the Hokies came back to get a 20-17 win as 3½-point road ‘dogs. Paulus was just 3-of-8 for 23 yards and threw two INTs as Virginia Tech scored 17 unanswered points in the final 16 minutes of play.

Miami went to College Station, Texas, a week ago and throttled Texas A&M 41-23 as a 2½-point favorite. The ‘Canes’ defense is limiting foes to 75 yards per game on the ground and just 278 total ypg. Offensively, Miami got outstanding play last week from redshirt freshman Robert Mavre who was 16 for 22 for 212 yards, two TDs and one INT, while RB Graig Cooper ran for 128 yards and two TDs.

The home team has won each of the four matchups between these two dating back to 2004, but North Carolina is 3-1 ATS, including last year’s 33-27 win as a seven-point home ‘dog.

Butch Davis’ Tar Heels are on ATS streaks of 7-3 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 following a non-cover. Conversely, Miami is on a bevy of ATS slides, including 9-19-1 overall, 4-13-1 in ACC contests, 1-10 at home against teams with a winning record, 0-4 at home overall and 6-21 following an ATS win.

The over is 16-7-1 in North Carolina’s last 24 roadies, but otherwise the team sports under runs of 8-3 following a non-cover, 6-2 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark. For Miami, the under is on a host of streaks, including 41-19 overall, 35-17-1 in the Orange Bowl, 13-5 in ACC contests, 13-4 in September and 9-3 following an ATS win. Finally, in this brief ACC rivalry, the over is 3-1.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Mississippi (2-2, 2-1 ATS) at (4) Florida (3-0 SU and ATS)

The Gators welcome Ole Miss to the Swamp for a SEC battle with one of the best defenses in the country lying in wait.

Florida is fifth in the country in total defense (213 ypg) and second nationally in both scoring defense (6.3 points per game) and turnover differential (plus-nine). Last week the Gators forced two Tennessee turnovers inside the 20-yard-line in a 30-6 road victory, covering as seven-point favorites. The defense has taken some pressure off Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, who has been average this season, throwing for 489 yards, five TDs and no INTs, after last year’s 55-touchdown season (23 rushing).

Mississippi has lost two games by a total of eight points this season and comes in off last Saturday’s tough 23-17 home loss to Vanderbilt as a seven-point chalk. The Rebels outgained Vandy 385-202, but QB Jevan Snead tossed four INTs and the offense also lost two fumbles in the SEC defeat. Snead has tossed six INTs without a TD in his last two outings.

Florida won a shootout with Mississippi last season 30-24, but failed to cover as a 24½-point road chalk. The Rebels have gotten the cash in five of the seven matchups with the Gators the last 20 years, including each of the last four. In 2003, Ole Miss went to the Swamp and scored a 20-17 upset as a 12½-point ‘dog.

Houston Nutt’s Rebels are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 September games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-2 following an ATS loss. Florida, which is 21-1 SU under coach Urban Meyer in the Swamp, is on ATS runs of 6-2 overall and 5-1 in SEC contests.

The under is on a plethora of runs for Ole Miss, including 8-3 in September, 6-2 on the highway,, 4-1 in SEC action, 4-0 following a non-cover and 24-8 following a straight-up loss. The under is also 4-0 in the Gators’ last four September games and 3-0 in the last three series clashes between these two.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Minnesota (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at (14) Ohio State (3-1, 0-3 ATS)

The Buckeyes get star RB Beanie Wells back as they welcome Minnesota to Ohio Stadium in Columbus for the Big Ten opener for both schools.

Wells ran for 1,609 yards and 15 TDs as a sophomore a season ago but went down in the third quarter of his team’s season-opening 43-0 win over Youngstown State after rushing for 111 yards and a TD on 13 carries. He has missed the last three games as the Buckeyes have gone 2-1 (0-3 ATS), including a 35-3 loss at Southern Cal on Sept. 13. Last week, Ohio State got a pleasant surprise when true freshman QB Terrelle Pryor threw for 139 yards and four TDs in his first collegiate start to lead the Buckeyes to a 28-10 win over Troy, though they fell short as 21-point home favorites.

After going 1-11 (4-6-1 ATS) last season, the Golden Gophers have opened 2008 with four straight wins (2-1 ATS) including last Saturday’s 37-3 victory over Florida Atlantic as six-point favorites. Minnesota is averaging 36.2 points and 403.8 yards per game this season behind QB Adam Weber, who is completing 71.8 percent of his throws for 967 yards, seven TDs and one INT. Weber’s favorite target, Eric Decker, leads the conference in receptions (32) and yards (454).

Jim Tressel’s squad has won 22 of 24 Big Ten games since 2005, and his Buckeyes have won three straight conference openers since a 33-27 overtime loss to Northwestern in 2004. Ohio State has won the last five series clashes with Minnesota (4-1 ATS), including last season’s 30-7 road victory, but the Buckeyes just missed as a 24-point chalk. The last time the Gophers traveled to Columbus in 2006, they were crushed 44-0 as 27½-point ‘dogs, and in the last two meetings at the Horseshoe, Ohio State out outscored Minnesota 78-3.

The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five in Columbus and 0-4 ATS in their last four September kickoffs, but they are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 conference games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after an ATS setback. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall, 7-3-1 in its last 11 Big Ten contests, but just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the highway against teams with a winning home record.

For the Gophers, the over is on runs of 11-5 overall, 36-15-1 against teams with a winning record, 19-9 following an ATS win and 5-2 in September. On the flip side, for the Buckeyes, the under is on runs of 13-6 in Columbus, 4-1 overall and 4-0 in September contests. Also, the under is 3-1 in the last four matchups in this rivalry (2-0 at Ohio State).

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE


Virginia Tech (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at Nebraska (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

Two traditional college powers get together for the first time in 12 years when Virginia Tech makes the trek to Lincoln, Neb., to take on the Cornhuskers in an ACC-Big 12 showdown.

The Hokies have rebounded from their opening loss to East Carolina with three straight wins, including two straight (1-1 ATS) in ACC play, beating both Georgia Tech and North Carolina by identical 20-17 scores. Virginia Tech went to Chapel Hill a week ago and rallied to beat the Tar Heels as a 3½-point road ‘dog. QB Tyrod Taylor will be making his third straight start in this one, but is still looking for his first TD pass.

Nebraska has feasted on three cupcakes this season (2-1 ATS) and has been idle for two weeks preparing for the Hokies. The Huskers beat New Mexico State 38-7 and covered as 26-point favorites in its most recent contest back on Sept. 13, as their running game amassed 330 yards. Nebraska’s offense is averaging 40 points and better than 450 yards per contest this season with QB Joe Ganz (719 yards passing, five TDs and three INTs) leading the way.

The Hokies are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight September games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference contests, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 18-5 on the road, 5-2 following a bye week, 4-1 following an ATS win and 13-3 on the road against a team with a winning home mark.

The Huskers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 at home against teams with a winning road record, but otherwise they are on pointspread slides of 4-10 overall, 8-21-2 after a spead-cover, 2-8 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in September and 1-7 following a straight-up win.

For Virginia Tech, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in September and 4-0 against teams with a winning record, while Nebraska sports under steaks of 5-2 at home and 4-1 after a straight-up win.

These team haven’t met since 1996 when Nebraska got a 41-21 as a 16-point home chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


(8) Alabama (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at (3) Georgia (4-0, 2-1 ATS)

The game of the day comes from Sanford Stadium in Athens. Ga., where the Crimson Tide steps between the hedges to take on No. 3 Georgia in a key SEC matchup.

Alabama comes in off a 49-14 blowout win at Arkansas last week, covering easily as an eight-point road chalk. RB Glen Coffee averaged 16.2 yards per carry against the Razorbacks, finishing with 162 yards and two TDs. Coffee is sixth in the country at 8.6 yards per carry and makes for a formidable twosome with QB John Parker Wilson, who has thrown for 542 yards, five TDs and just one INT.

Georgia has won 11 straight games (7-2-1 ATS) dating back to last season and traveled west to Tempe, Ariz., a week ago, burying Arizona State 27-10 as a seven-point favorite. QB Matthew Stafford was magnificent against the Sun Devils, throwing for 285 yards and a TD, and RB Knowshon Moreno ran for 149 yards and two TDs. Moreno leads the SEC with 455 rushing yards and is third in the country with nine TDs.

Last season Moreno rushed for 74 yards and a score in the Bulldogs’ 26-23 overtime upset win over Alabama as three-point road ‘dogs. Georgia has won and cashed in three straight against the Tide dating back to 2002. These two last met in Athens in 2003, when Georgia rolled the Tide 37-23 win as a 12½-point favorite.

Alabama is on ATS slides of 2-6 in SEC contests, 1-5 following an ATS win and 4-10 on grass, but it is 4-1 in its last five games overall. Georgia is on ATS runs of 6-0-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-2-1 in SEC play and 6-0 against teams with a winning record.

The under is 5-2 in Alabama’s last seven roadies, but aside from that, the over for the Tide is on runs of 6-2 in conference matchups, 7-3 in September games and 7-3 following a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Georgia has under streaks of 23-7 in September and 9-3 following an ATS win.

The over has been the play in the last three series clashes between these rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA


Tennessee (1-2 SU and ATS) at (15) Auburn (3-1, 1-3 ATS)

Auburn looks to bounce back from last week’s tough loss to LSU when it hosts struggling Tennessee in an SEC clash at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

In a game that went back-and-forth most of the night, the Tigers gave up the decisive touchdown to LSU with just over a minute to play and fell 26-21, falling short as a two-point home underdog. Auburn, which saw its five-game winning streak end in the defeat, racked up 320 total yards, but lost the battle at the line of scrimmage in getting outgained 178-70 on the ground.

Tennessee was humiliated by rival Florida last week, losing 30-6 as a 7½-point home underdog. The Vols, who have alternated SU wins and losses in their last six games going back to November, actually won the yardage battle (258-243) and held Florida QB Tim Tebow (8-for-15 for 96 yards) in check, but Tennessee had three crucial first-half turnovers and forced none the entire game.

These schools haven’t faced each other since the 2004 SEC championship game, with Auburn winning 38-28, but Tennessee covering as a 14½-point underdog. The Tigers have won the last three meetings, but the Vols are 6-3 ATS in the last nine, including 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Finally, eight of the last 11 series clashes have been decided by 10 points or fewer, including a pair of ties.

Tennessee has cashed in five of its last six following a SU loss and is 13-7-1 ATS catching points since 2003, but the Vols are now 1-4 ATS in their last five in September. Meanwhile, Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a defeat, but otherwise is mired in pointspread funks of 6-13 as a favorite, 4-8 at Jordan-Hare, 2-8 in September, 1-4 in the SEC and 0-4 versus losing teams.

The under is on streaks of 8-2 for Tennessee overall, 5-1 for Tennessee in conference play, 5-1 for Auburn overall, 5-1 for Auburn at home and 8-3 for Auburn in SEC action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER


(9) Wisconsin (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at Michigan (1-2, 0-3 ATS)

Two teams coming off bye weeks are set to open the Big Ten season against one another at The Big House in Ann Arbor, where Michigan will try to rebound from an ugly loss when it hosts Wisconsin.

The Badgers survived a tough battle at Fresno State on Sept. 13, prevailing 13-10 and narrowly covering as a two-point road favorite. Wisconsin is on a 7-2 SU run (5-4 ATS), and it enters this contest averaging 34 points and 423.3 yards per game in 2008, while yielding 13.7 points and 318 yards per contest. The Badgers do most of their damage on the ground, outrushing opponents by a per-game average of 151 yards per contest (239-88).

The Wolverines were idle last week after suffering a misleading 35-17 loss at Notre Dame as a two-point road chalk. Michigan dominated Notre Dame from a yardage standpoint (388-260), but committed six turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown by the Irish. Dating to last year’s 37-21 loss at Wisconsin, the Wolverines have dropped four of their last six contests, going 1-5 ATS (0-5 ATS in the regular season). First-year head coach Rich Rodriguez has seen his offense produce just 18.7 points and 290.7 yards per game to this point.

The Badgers took advantage of three Michigan interceptions in last year’s 37-21 upset home win in Madison, Wis., as a thee-point underdog. The host has won the last four head-to-head clashes going back to 2002, but Wisconsin is on a 5-0-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, all as an underdog.

Wisconsin is on pointspread runs of 5-1 following a bye and 11-3-1 in September, but the team’s negative ATS trends include 2-6 in Big Ten play and 1-6 on the road. As for the Wolverines, they’re 14-5-1 in their last 20 conference contests, but otherwise the ATS trends are all negative, including 9-19-1 at home and 5-12-1 in September.

The over is on runs of 5-2 for Wisconsin overall, 5-2 for Wisconsin in Big Ten play, 6-0-1 for the Wolverines after a bye week, 5-2 for the Wolverines overall and 4-1 for the Wolverines versus winning teams. On the flip side, the under is 6-1 in the last seven series meetings, 7-1 in Michigan’s last eight in September and 10-4 in Michigan’s last 14 in Ann Arbor.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Maryland (3-1, 2-1 ATS) at (20) Clemson (3-1, 0-2 ATS)

Surprising Maryland will try to kick off its ACC campaign with an upset victory at Clemson, which has won three of the last four meetings against the Terrapins.

After a stunning 35-27 win over California as a 14-point home underdog on Sept. 13, Maryland avoided the letdown last week against Eastern Michigan, cruising 51-24 as a 21-point home chalk. The Terps churned out 231 rushing yards and 255 passing yards, while the defense offset giving up 453 total yards by picking off three passes. Coach Ralph Friedgen’s troops are gunning for their first three-game SU or ATS winning streak since October 2006.

After opening ACC play with a lackluster 27-9 win over North Carolina State as a 21-point home favorite, the Tigers flattened South Carolina State 54-0 in a non-lined home game last week. Clemson has hammered a pair of Division I-AA foes by a total tally of 99-17, but the Tigers have been outscored 43-37 against two I-A squads (Alabama and N.C. State).

Clemson cruised to a 30-17 win at Maryland last year as a 3½-point road chalk, ending a 3-0 ATS run by the underdog in this rivalry. Although the Tigers are on a 3-1 SU roll against the Terps, Maryland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight, including 4-0 ATS at Clemson and 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Finally, the visitor has cashed in the last four series battles between these schools.

Clemson has failed to cover in five straight lined games overall, going 0-4 ATS at home. Tommy Bowden’s team is also 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against winning teams. Meanwhile, despite getting the cash in its last two games, Maryland is still stuck in ATS ruts of 4-8 as a visitor since 2006, 4-10 in September, 3-8 against ACC foes, 2-8 after a SU victory and 1-4 on the road.

The under is 7-1 in the last eight Maryland-Clemson tussles. Additionally, the under runs include 5-0 for Clemson overall, 4-0 for Clemson at home, 10-4 for Clemson in the ACC, 7-3 for Maryland overall, 5-0 for Maryland on the road, 5-1 for the Terps in conference action and 4-1 for the Terps in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and UNDER


(24) TCU (4-0, 3-0 ATS) at (2) Oklahoma (3-0, 2-0 ATS)

Having cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season, TCU figures to have a tough time remaining in the rankings as it travels to Norman, Okla., for a battle with the powerful Sooners.

The Horned Frogs avoided getting caught looking ahead to this showdown, as they buried SMU last week 48-7 as a 24-point road favorite. TCU rolled up 498 yards, outrushed the Mustangs 271 to minus-8 and forced three turnovers to extend its winning streak to seven in a row. Also, the Frogs are on a 7-1 ATS roll, including four consecutive spread-covers in lined action entering this game.

Oklahoma was idle last week after pummeling Washington 55-14 as a 21-point road chalk. The Sooners have scored 57, 52 and 55 points in their first three games, while the defense has allowed a total of 42 points. Bob Stoops’ squad has won five straight regular-season games (4-0 ATS in lined action).

The Horned Frogs stunned Oklahoma three seasons ago in Norman, winning 17-10 as a 25-point road underdog. In three meetings since 1996, TCU is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, all as an underdog.

TCU comes into this contest averaging 43 points and 415.5 total yards per game, including 241 ypg on the ground, while the defense is surrendering just 7.8 points and 180.2 total ypg (27.8 rushing ypg).

Oklahoma junior QB Sam Bradford (79 percent completion rate, 882 yards, 12 TDs, two INTs) has been nearly flawless in leading an offense that’s averaging 556.7 yards per game (339 passing, 217.7 rushing). Defensively, the Sooners are giving up just 14 points and 232.7 yards per outing (63.3 rushing ypg).

The Frogs carry a bevy of positive pointspread streaks into this contest, including 4-1 on the road, 9-3 in non-conference play, 5-1 against the Big 12, 12-4-1 versus a winning team and 7-2 as a double-digit pup. For Oklahoma, the positive ATS trends include 10-3-1 at home (all as a favorite), 6-1 in non-conference, 8-1 in September and 13-6 after a spread-cover.

The over is on runs of 3-0 for Oklahoma overall, 4-1-1 for Oklahoma at home, 10-1 for Oklahoma in non-Big 12 action, 8-2 for Oklahoma in September, 8-3 for TCU on the highway and 7-1 for TCU following a bye.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and OVER

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Colorado (3-0, 2-0 ATS) vs. Florida State (2-1, 0-1 ATS)

at Jacksonville, Fla.

Fresh off an upset victory over West Virginia, Colorado travels across the country for a battle with Florida State, which figures to be in a foul mood after last week’s performance against Wake Forest.

Colorado eked out a 17-14 overtime victory over West Virginia last Thursday as a three-point home underdog, converting a short field goal in the extra session moments after the Mountaineers’ kicker hit the upright on his short field-goal try. The Buffs won despite committing two turnovers and allowing West Virginia to rush for 311 yards.

After fattening up on a couple of Division I-AA cupcakes (Western Carolina and Chattanooga) by a combined score of 115-7, the Seminoles stepped up in class last Saturday and managed just a single field goal in a 12-3 ACC-opening defeat to Wake Forest. The Seminoles, who failed as a four-point home favorite, had just 220 total yards and committed seven turnovers, including five combined interceptions by QBs D’Vontrey Richardson and Christian Ponder.

These teams met last year in Boulder, Colo., and Florida State scored a 16-6 win as a 4½-point road chalk, surviving a late Buffaloes drive to preserve the spread-cover.

Although this game is taking place just up the road from the FSU campus in Tallahassee, Fla., it’s technically a neutral-site affair, and the ‘Noles are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six at neutral sites. Colorado, meanwhile, is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against squads with a winning record and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 following a spread-cover. Also, since coach Dan Hawkins took over in Boulder in 2006, the Buffs are 5-10-1 ATS as an underdog.

Florida State has topped the total in five of its last six neutral-site contests, but the under is 4-1 in the Seminoles’ last five in September, 11-2 in Colorado’s last 13 non-conference games and 5-0 in CU’s last five in September. Finally, last year’s meeting stayed well under the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


(22) Illinois (2-1, 0-2 ATS) at (12) Penn State (4-0, 3-0 ATS)

After feasting on inferior non-conference foes during the first month of the season, Penn State gets its first true test when it hosts 22nd-ranked Illinois in the Big Ten opener for both schools.

The Nittany Lions hammered Temple 45-3 last week, easily covering as a 28½-point home chalk. Joe Paterno’s troops have shown no mercy on their first four foes – Costal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse and Temple – outscoring them by a whopping 211-40 and easily covering in the three lined contests. The Lions, who are on a 5-0 run (4-0 ATS) since last year, have averaged 538.5 total ypg (274.2 rushing ypg), while yielding just 222.2 total ypg (52.2 rushing ypg).

Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for this showdown after struggling to put away Louisiana-Lafayette 20-17 on Sept. 13, never threatening to cover as a 25-point home chalk. In their only tough battle so far this season, the Illini lost 52-42 to Missouri as a 9½-point favorite in a neutral-site game back on Aug. 30, giving up 549 total yards, but amassing 532 yards.

The Illini hosted Penn State last year and pulled off a 27-20 upset victory as a three-point home underdog, forcing four turnovers and ending the Nittany Lions’ three-game winning streak in this rivalry. The underdog is 4-1 ATS and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head clashes, but going back to 1994, Penn State has won eight of 10 contests outright.

This game pits two versatile, dynamic QBs against one another. Illinois junior Juice Williams has completed 59.8 percent of his passes for 722 yards with seven TDs and five INTS, while adding 212 rushing yards and two scores. Williams’ counterpart is Penn State senior Daryll Clark, who is connecting on 57.8 percent of his tosses for 569 yards with six TDs and one pick to go along with 81 rushing yards and two additional TDs.

Although it has failed to cash in each of its last three lined games and six of the last nine, Illinois still sports positive ATS trends of 10-4 against winning teams, 15-6 following a SU win, 5-2 in September, 6-2 in Big Ten play, 6-2 as a double-digit pup, 4-0 as a double-digit road dog in conference, and it went 4-1 ATS in true road games in 2007. However, Ron Zook’s squad is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games on grass, and it has lost 13 of its last 14 conference openers.

Penn State failed to cash in each of its last four Big Ten games in 2007 and is 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record. But the Lions are 11-6 ATS as a home favorite since 2005.

The over is 4-2 in the last six series battles between these schools, but the last two in State College have stayed low. Also, for Illinois, the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the road and 5-2 in conference play, but the under is 9-1 in its last 10 on grass. Finally, the under is 14-5 in Penn State’s last 19 Big Ten tussles.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

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4 STAR PLAY: OREGON -21.5 @ WASHINGTON STATE

We think the public hasn't figured out quite yet how truly bad this Washington State team is. This is not your typical Pac-10 last place team that plays tough at home from time to time and covers some spreads against the top programs. This year's Washington State team is way over its head in the Pac-10 with a first year coach and a redshirt Freshman quarterback making his first career start. It's true that Oregon is down to its third and fourth string QB's as well, but the Ducks have far greater depth. They may start a freshman of their own in this game, but that freshman will likely be Darren Turner, who looked great last week coming off the bench and nearly leading the Ducks to victory after being down 24 at the start of the fourth quarter. Last week's surprising home loss to Boise will ensure that the Ducks are not looking past the Cougars in this spot. Oregon has the superior talent at virtually every position and should be able to steamroll Wazzu. Meanwhile, we get good value on the Ducks here as they are coming off the loss to Boise (1 STAR play for Rock Box Sports last week). Get on the bandwagon this week and cash in before the public catches on and the lines on WSU go through the roof.


3 STAR PLAY: LSU -24.5 VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE

Mississippi State must be bracing themselves here coming off a 38-7 thrashing in which opponent Georgia Tech put up 500 yards of offense. The Bulldogs are banged up physically and emotionally and seem unlikely to give a spirited effort here on the road. We might fear a letdown here for LSU coming off the huge and bruising game at Auburn, but the situation does not seem to lend itself to that. The Tigers are at home, have a bye week coming up next, and seem to be hitting their stride now that they may have found their QB last week. This is a team that is as talented as any in the country and if they get good QB play, as they may this week, they could become scary good. LSU can name their score here. The only hope for Miss St. backers will be if the Tigers show some mercy late and leave the back door open. Considering that LSU is averaging 42.5 points over their last four vs. MSU and have outscored them 340-81 in the last eight, we'll assume this won't be the case.


2 STAR PLAY: PENN STATE -15 VS. ILLINOIS

Ron Zook's Illini have had two weeks to prepare here, but that likely won't be enough to handle Penn State, particularly the PSU offense. Nittany Lion QB Daryll Clark is an excellent athlete, has been making the big throws and has mastered the spread offense. After warming up against a mediocre non-conference slate, the Lions are itching to show the Big-10 what they've got and we think they'll pile on here if they get the chance. Illinois has a shot to score some points, but their defense will be completely overmatched and they won't be able to keep pace in the second half.


1 STAR PLAY: MISSISSIPPI +22.5 AT FLORIDA

Tough loss for the Rebels last week, as they outgained Vandy 385-202, led 17-7 in the first quarter, and had numerous chances to win the game. Turnovers were the culprit, as Miss gave it up six times, highlighted by four picks by QB Jarvis Snead, including one returned 79 yards for a TD. We still believe that this team is better than they have shown, and better than most think. Coach Houston Nutt will surely be addressing the ball security issue in practice this week. Coming off the disappointing loss last week, we don't expect Nutt's team to go in the tank but, rather, to come out with a strong effort here.

ADDITIONAL 1 STAR PLAYS:

INDIANA +8; NORTHWESTERN +8; NORTHWESTERN UNDER 42.5; OHIO STATE -19; MARSHALL +15; TCU +18.5; GEORGIA/BAMA UNDER 44

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Bobby Maxwell

North Carolina at MIAMI -7½ 

Too many questions for the Tar Heels at quarterback today as they head to the Orange Bowl to take on the Hurricanes.

Everything was going North Carolina's way until the third quarter last week when QB T.J. Yates went down with a broken ankle. The Heels were up 17-3 when it happened but the Hokies were able to rally and score a 20-17 win thanks to key INTs in the fourth quarter. Backup QB Mike Paulus too over for Yates and was just 3-of-8 for 23 yards and two INTs in his 16 minutes of action. He is slated to get the start today in Miami.

Miami went to Texas A&M and got a 41-23 win as a 2 1/2-point road favorite last week and this defense is clicking right now, limiting the opposition to 75 yards per game on the ground and just 278 total yards. The 'Canes have found a QB in Robert Mavre who was 16-of-22 for 212 yards and two TDs last week and RB Graig Cooper rushed for 128 yards and two TDs.

The Hurricanes have got the type of defense that will give a new QB fits. They are fast and fly to the ball and have the ability to put pressure right in the QB's face. Look for the 'Canes to dominate this one with defense.

Play Miami at home to get this one, somewhere in the neighborhood of 21-6

3♦ MIAMI


Virginia Tech +7 at NEBRASKA

This is a strange matchup four weeks into the season as this is only the second time these two teams have met in the last 12 years. Virginia Tech has looked good since its opening loss and as long as the Hokies continue to play it safe, not get penalized and not turn the ball over they should be in this one until the final gun.

Virgina Tech has scored identical 20-17 wins the last two weeks, beating Georgia Tech and North Carolina. They rallied to beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill last week as a 3 1/2-point road 'dog. They haven't been doing it with flash, they've been doing it with solid defense and mistake-free football.

Meanwhile on the other side, Nebraska has loaded up on easy competition the first three games. Last time out the Huskers beat New Mexico State 38-7 as a 26-point favorite and loaded up on rushing yards, gaining 330 yards. They are averaging better than 40 points a game and more than 450 yards of offense this season but it won't be that easy tonight.

Frank Beamer preaches solid play on defense and exeptional play on special teams. Those things will keep the Hokies in this one until the end and look for some key turnovers in the second half to go their way. Virginia Tech is on ATS runs of 18-5 on the road, 13-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 4-1 following an ATS win.

And Nebraska just isn't a safe bet, failing at the window lately to the tune of 4-10 overall, 8-21-2 after an ATS win, 2-8 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in September and 1-7 following a straight-up win.

We'll grab the points and play the Hokies today in Lincoln.

2♦ VIRGINIA TECH

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Chris Jordan

Texas Christian +18½ at OKLAHOMA 

Yes, this looks like a fat mismatch, with a Mountain West Conference team facing the second-ranked team in the country, and from the mighty Big 12, no less. But look a little closer. The Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) have a stout enough defense to keep them in the game, as they've allowed just 31 points through four games so far (7.75 ppg), and they've given up just 30.5 rushing yards per game.

Plus, they've got enough offense to hang around, too, averaging 43 ppg and coming off a 48-7 rout at SMU laying 24 1/2 points -- the second straight week they've won and cashed as a heavy double-digit chalk. The Frogs are on ATS hot streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-1 against the Big 12, 4-1 on the highway and 9-3 in non-conference games -- and they beat Oklahoma SU three years ago in Norman as a 25-point 'dog.

Granted, the Sooners (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) and their prolific offense (54.7 ppg) will get their points, and it's pretty unlikely their defense will let TCU run wild. But the Frogs can stay within this number, so hop on 'em.

1♦ TEXAS CHRISTIAN

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Sports Gambling Hotline

New Mexico at NEW MEXICO STATE +3½ 

The line has come down in this game a little, but we are not concerned, as we are calling for an outright win by New Mexico State against their hated in-state rival.

New Mexico has won the last 5 series meetings, but extending the streak to 6 does not appear likely, as the Lobos have lost their starting quarterback for the season in last week's loss to Tulsa.

New Mexico State will look to build off last week's upset win at UTEP, and Hal Mumme's bunch is on a 6-3-1 spread run their last 10 at home.

Aggies QB Chase Holbrook went ballistic last Saturday, throwing for over 300 yards, and 5 touchdown passes. The Lobos defense has been shredded for 12 TD's the last 3 games, and will get burned in this one for a few more.

The time looks right for State to snap the series losing streak.

Take the points, and the Aggies.

Play on New Mexico State.

5♦ NEW MEXICO STATE

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Karl Garrett

Arkansas State -2 at MEMPHIS 

Chances look good to the G-Man for Arkansas State extending their current two game series winning streak over Memphis.

The Red Wolves are brimming with confidence after thrashing a decent Middle Tennessee State team, and State has already won at Texas A&M to open the season. This is a program that is on the rise!

The same cannot be said for Memphis, as the Tigers have already lost to lowly Rice, and Marshall this year.

Memphis just 3-4 as a home dog the last two years, while Arkansas State QB Corey Leonard rates the edge under center over anyone Memphis decides to place under center.

Arkansas State also boasts the better defense, allowing 14 points or less in 3 of their 4 games this season.

Winning on the non-conference road is never easy, but the G-Man believes the Red Wolves can do just that this afternoon in Memphis.

3♦ ARKANSAS STATE

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Jeff Benton

For Saturday’s free play in College Football, we’ll back Duke – yes Duke! – at home against Virginia.

Never did I think I’d see the day where the Blue Devils’ football program would be laying seven points to an ACC rival – never mind that I never thought there would come a day when I’d be recommending Duke in such a situation. But that tells you just how bad Virginia really is.

A week after losing their opener at home to USC 52-7 – and how much worse does that loss look now in light of the Trojans’ defeat at Oregon State on Thursday? – the Cavaliers hosted Division I-AA Richmond and posted an uninspiring 16-0 win. Then they went on the road to UConn and got destroyed 45-10, never even coming close to covering as a 10½-point road underdog.

So to review, against their two quality opponents in 2008, Virginia has scored 17 points … and given up 97. Not only that, but against those two foes, the Cavs’ offense averaged 204 total yards per game (32 rushing ypg), and the D gave up 532 yards per game (300 rushing ypg). YIKES!

Meanwhile, Duke has looked pretty good the last two weeks, losing at Northwestern 24-20 as a six-point road underdog and beating Navy at home 41-31 as a 2½-point favorite. In fact, the Blue Devils outgained those two opponents by 92 yards per game (435-343), and with QB Thaddeus Lewis (63 percent, 714 yards, 5 TDs, no INTs) at the controls, Duke actually has a feared passing attack.

Throw in he fact that Virginia has been woeful a visitor in recent years (9-24 ATS last 33 on the road, including 4-13 ATS in the last 17 as a road pup), and I’m more than willing to do the unthinkable: Lay a touchdown with the Duke football team in a conference game!

5♦ DUKE BLUE DEVILS

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Scott Delaney

This is a big-time SEC showdown among two top-10 unbeatens, and it comes in a spot ripe for a typical Georgia letdown. The Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) opened the year with a pair of home non-conference routs. Then they got into conference play and struggled throughout before shaking off South Carolina 14-7 to get a push.

Last week, they refocused in a 27-10 road win against Arizona State of the Pac-10. But now it's back into the SEC, and 6 1/2 points is too many to lay in this battle, even in Athens, and even with Georgia on ATS runs of 4-0 run at home and 6-0-1 overall. The Crimson Tide (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) are on a 4-1 ATS run dating to last year.

And Alabama is inspired this season and playing shutdown defense, yielding just 37 points so far (9.25 ppg), including a 34-10 road wipeout of Clemson as a four-point pup and a 49-14 road beatdown of Arkansas laying eight last weekend. I think Georgia will eke out a win, but against this number, ride the Tide in this one.

ALABAMA

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Matt Rivers

For Saturday take the U at home.

I am not fully sold on the Miami Hurricanes and Butch Davis' Tar Heels are improved but after the injury to North Carolina Quarterback TJ Yates I just cannot see the visitors being able to move the ball enough to stay in this number against the improving 'Canes.

A few weeks ago the Heels went to Rutgers and looked phenomenal in the blowout win. Things seemed to carry over last week as the Heels led Virginia Tech 17-3 but then the world fell apart as Tyrod Taylor and the Hokies rallied for the 20-17 win with Yates getting hurt late in that game.

Mike Paulus came in for the Heels after the Yates injury and did a whole lot of nothing. Actually he did worse than nothing completing five passes, two of which went to Virginia Tech helping lead to the loss. UNC has talent but down South here against a much improving Miami team are in a ton of trouble without their first string signal caller.

Miami defensively looked amazing in that fairly tight loss (save the last few minutes) in Gainesville against the high powered Gators. Then last week the 'Canes traveled to College Station and beat up Texas A&M, 41-23. The Aggies have not been good this season, I do admit that, but they still have a tough homefield advantage with their 12th man and Mike Goodson at least forms a quality ground game even with injuries to Stephen McGee and Jorvorskie Lane.

Robert Marve has been pretty good at Quarterback for the U and with a defense that is once again becoming no joke I will lay a little with Randy Shannon's team here at home and expecta  double digit victory.

By the way also teasing Miami down is a quality play in my opinion as losing this game would definitely surprise me and pretty much shock me.

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Jake Timlin

Your Saturday selection is the Duke Blue Devils.

Unfamiliar territory for Duke being a league favorite today, but thanks to being the better I like the Blue Devils to roll at home. I mean thank to winning already winning two games this year and now playing their 4th home game in a row things line up quite nicely for Duke today. Especially against a Virginia team that is awful this year due the bad offense that ranks second to last in the nation and who has lost both games played this against FBS teams losing by a combined 97-17. Meanwhile, for good measure lets add the Cavaliers 11-24 ATS record on the road over the years. So looking to erase years of revenge look for the Blue Devils to take advantage of Virginia being down this year as Duke rolls to a double digit win.

All Duke!

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Tony Weston

You’re damn right I hit another Comp Play winner last night as the Brew Crew comes through in impressive fashion for us.

We picked up another win last night and we’re picking up another win tonight as we’re taking Alabama on the road at Georgia.

Consider that Alabama comes into this game 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season and is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS going back to last season. The Crimson Tide are also 11-6 ATS their last 17 games on the road.

Also, in their last three meetings Georgia is 3-0 SU against Alabama, but only once have the Bulldogs beaten the Crimson Tide by more than three points in that stretch.

Also, The underdog has been the smart money in this series, as the dog is 2-1 ATS these teams last three meetings and is 4-3 their last seven meetings.

The Tide is catching about six or seven points tonight, depending on where you go, and they’ll make this game even closer than that. Take the points and take Alabama on the road tonight.

3♦ ALABAMA

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LOU DIAMOND

EAST CAROLINA

East Carolina Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Pirates are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. Pirates are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Pirates are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Pirates are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Pirates are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Houston Cougars are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Cougars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cougars are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Cougars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


SAN JOSE STATE

San Jose State Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on field turf. Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Spartans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Spartans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Spartans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Spartans are 27-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Spartans are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Spartans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on field turf. Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

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Lee Kostroski

Troy / Oklahoma St.
PICK: Oklahoma St. -17

While this pick isn't nearly as strong as my BIG 6-STAR POWER SYSTEM WINNER it's still worthy of a small wager. Revenge! Revenge! Revenge! That word is often overused when it comes to handicapping college football but there are some cases where it must be considered a big time factor. This is one of those games. Okie State was clearly over looking the Trojans last year when they made the trip to Troy, Alabama on September 14th. Troy was coming off two 20 point plus losses to open the season @ Arkansas and @ Florida. The Trojans came home with their tails between their legs but caught OSU napping in a big 41-23 win. The Cowboys committed five turnovers in that loss.

Now Troy must travel to Stillwater to face an Okie State team that is steaming hot and waiting for this rematch. Not only that, even though we will be less than a month into the season, the Trojans are already physically and emotionally drained for this one. That’s because it will be their third road game in the first four games of the season. They are also playing their second of back to back roadies after making the trip to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes last Saturday. The Trojans poured everything into that game, hung with the Bucks for awhile before losing 28-10. Now they have nothing left in the tank. To add insult to injury, Oklahoma State has a bye the previous Saturday giving them two full weeks to stew over last year’s embarrassment.

A rested Cowboy offense should more than take advantage of a gassed Troy stop unit. Okie State is averaging an incredible 51 PPG in their three games this year. Their offense is very diverse making it nearly impossible for an opposing defense to key in on one area. OSU is averaging 333 YPG on the ground and 213 YPG passing. They have outgained their three opponents (Washington State, Houston and Missouri State) by an average of 253 yards per game.

This could get really ugly. After last year’s embarrassment on national TV, we don’t expect the Cowboys to let up if they get ahead. That means big problems for a tired Troy team. Take OSU at home.

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AC Sports Advisors

Kent vs. Ball State
Play:Ball State -21

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Brian Graves

South Florida vs. NC St
Play: USF -9.5

The Bulls have had time to recover from their big win against Kansas and NC St. is still feeling good about upsetting East Carolina last week. They would have won the game in regulation if not for one guy and that is the guy that will start today at QB. Russell Wilson is out and he made several big plays to help NC ST. pull off the upset, but Beck his backup came in early and threw a pick 6 which is likely to happen again today with USF having one great pass rush. Offensively the Bulls may not move the ball as well as I would like, but they'll give up virtually nothing on defense as they win 23-3!

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K & B Sports

After three games of the 2008 regular season Duke is 2-1 SU and 2-0 ATS while Virginia is 1-2 SU and 0-2 ATS. Duke has scored 30 points or more in two of three games.And Virginia has allowed 45 points or more in two of three games. Look for Duke to have a solid performance on offense and Virginia to have a subpar performance on defense.Play DUKE

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