Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

Terrible call on the Dodgers run-line Wednesday, as L.A. played its worst game in more than two weeks (go figure!). Let’s shake out of this free-play funk by playing the Marlins on the run-line (-1½ runs) against the Astros.

My paying customers know that I came with this exact play as Wednesday’s Best Bet, and I cashed that 15 Dimer with ease as Florida rolled to a 14-2 victory. Well, my reasoning for taking the Marlins on the run-line today mirror those of yesterday. The Astros have been a total and complete mess since Hurricane Ike struck H-town last weekend, forcing the postponement, and then relocation, of a three-game series against the Cubs (they played two of the games in Milwaukee, which was like a home-away-from-home for nearby Chicago).

Anyway, prior to the hurricane madness, the Astros had won 14 of 15 games to climb right back into the wild-card race. But starting with getting no-hit by Carlos Zambrano on Sunday, the Astros have lost four straight games by the combined score of – get this! – 30-4! Not only that, but the offense has tallied a grand total of 12 hits in 36 innings. As I stated in yesterday’s analysis on the Florida-Houston game, clearly the minds of the Astros’ players are elsewhere (and understandably so).

Meanwhile, the Marlins all of a sudden have won seven straight games – the longest current winning streak in baseball – and now they find themselves four games out of the wild-card race. Bottom line: I don’t even care about the pitching matchup in this game (veteran Marlins lefty Scott Olsen vs. Houston rookie Alberto Arias); Florida’s beating the Astros once again, and doing so comfortably.

4♦ FLORIDA MARLINS -1½

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Thursday take a stab with the Brewers.

Certainly Milwaukee is the well inferior team in this spot and should be a huge underdog but I still think this is a winnable game and well worth the risk.

Rich Harden is phenomenal and easily can shut down any opponent including the ice cold Brew Crew who just fired Manager Ned Yost. But Milwaukee still has a ton of talent and a solid upside that at this price it's a total no-brainer. Braun and Prince are awesome and others like Hart, Hall, Hardy, Weeks, etc. can explode as well.

Lou's boys have ben great at Wrigley all season long and are ready for a postseason run. Lee, Soriano and Ramirez anchor a lineup that definitely can be scary and hit David Bush but the sinkerballer also is a pretty good pitcher that can keep his team in this game.

More times than not Harden does his thing and the Cubbies prevail today but at this takeback with a team that has immense potential in the Brew Crew I can't help but take back this number.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tony Weston

We’re going back to the National League as we’re taking the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Despite last night’s 15-8 loss to the Pirates, the Dodgers are still 4-1 their last five meetings against Pittsburgh, including a 2-1 mark so far through three games in this series.

While the Pirates have been a little hot lately, going 4-2 their last six games, they are nowhere near what the Dodgers have been doing.

After an eight-game losing streak from Aug. 22 to Aug. 29 Los Angeles has been red hot. The Dodgers are now 14-3 their last 17 games and have won eight of their last 11 on the road, including six of their last eight.

Also, Los Angeles pitcher Clayton Kershaw has been strong over his last eight starts as the Dodgers are 6-2 in that stretch, while the Pirates are 1-3 in scheduled starter Paul Maholm’s last four starts.

The Dodgers will continue their red-hot play and get over on the Pirates today.

3♦ DODGERS

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

DUNKEL

San Francisco at Arizona   
The Giants look to snap a three-game skid and build on their 9-4 road record when the run total is 7 or less.  San Francisco is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored straight up by 1.  Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110).   Here are all of today's games

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.859; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.171
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.451; Cubs (Harden) 15.629
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-260); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-260); N/A

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 16.352; Washington (Redding) 14.917
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-215); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-215); Over

Game 907-908: Houston at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Arias) 15.809; Florida (Olsen) 15.537
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 13.798; Cincinnati (Volquez) 13.769
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125); Over

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.531; Atlanta (Reyes) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-215); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-215); Under

Game 913-914: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.415; Arizona (Johnson) 14.357
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under

Game 915-916: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Feierabend) 14.397; Kansas City (Greinke) 17.191
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-185); Over

Game 917-918: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 16.475; Oakland (Outman) 15.425
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Under

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Vazquez) 16.765; NY Yankees (Mussina) 15.466
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under

Game 921-922: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Olson) 14.956; Toronto (Litsch) 17.034
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.778; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.669
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Under


NCAAF

Game 303-304: West Virginia at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 97.668; Colorado 97.799
Dunkel Line: Even; 50
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 3; 57
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+3); Under

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

JB's Computer Picks

Los Angeles Angels -130
New York Yankees -130
Toronto Blue Jays -180

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Wild Bill

Los Angeles Dodgers-125 (5 units)
Mariners +175 (5 units)
Brewers +205 (5 units)
Angels -115 (5 units)
White Sox +125 (5 units)
Orioles +170 (5 units)
New York Mets -200 (5 units)
Reds 130 (5 units)
Braves +185 (5 units)
Twins +145 (5 units)
Giants -105 (5 units)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Drew Gordon
Today's Games...

1. 300,000♦ Colorado

2. 50,000♦ NY Yankees

3. 50,000♦ Cardinals

1. Colorado- First things first, this is NOT the 2007 version of the Mountaineers, as two things have become painfully clear with this new-look Bill Stewart led WVU squad: A. Pat White desperately misses playmakers RB Steve Slaton and WR Darius Reynaud, as their offense has struggled to get it done despite returning most everyone else from last years high-powered attack. And B. Bill Stewart's insistence on switching to a more pass-based pro-style attack has not gone over smoothly, as was clearly demonstrated by their 24-3 blowout loss at Eastern Carolina.

What's more is coach Stewart was quoted as saying he's going to back to the running attack in this contest, after Pat White tossed 51 passes in the first two games. Herein lies the problem, as the Buffaloes defense is especially stout against the run, and if Stewart stays true to his word (which I expect), they'll be playing right into the strength of this Colorado defense, allowing just 59 rushing yards per game thus far.

For all you West Virginia-backers out there, I got one question for you: How in the hell is a young and vulnerable WVU secondary going to stop Cody Hawkins and this high-powered Buffaloes passing attack?! Remember this stat: Opposing QBs are 43 of 55 for 502 yards against this Moutaineers defense thus far this season. That's right, two games and already the WVU secondary is getting exposed! More of the same tonight, as Hawkins puts on a clinic at home. Not to mention, when Hawkins isn't slinging the ball, star frosh RB Darrell Scott is just as dangerous as Noel Devine, if not more!

Finally, you have to believe the Buffaloes and their fans will be fired up in this national TV appearance. Look for a lot of energy coming from Colorado early and often in this one. Not to mention, the Buffaloes are also on a 5-0 run ATS in 2nd of back-to-back home games, which should tell you a little something about home field advantage. In the end, coach Stewart flip-flopping between pass-based and run-based attacks is a BAD sign, as his offense flounders in the confusion. Do not sleep on this Colorado team, especially at home, against a soft-ass WVU secondary. Buffaloes roll!

Take Colorado plus the points over West Virginia as your top-rated play of the day.


2. NY Yankees- For as much as the White Sox need to keep winning games, tonight's match up maybe biting off more than they chew. New York is playing well, and while its too little too late, there's no question they're highly motivated in their final homestand at their beloved Yankee Stadium.

While Mike Mussina hasn't pitched well of late, I expect he'll bounce back nicely tonight for two reasons: A. He's been downright nasty against the White Sox at home, going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 7 career starts there. He's won 5 straight at Yankee Stadium against the White Sox, make it 6 after tonight! And B. He's coming off a tough home loss to the Rays, where he got tagged for 5 run in 5 innings. I fully expect he'll come out looking for redemption in this one, and he'll deliver, plain and simple.

Opposing Mussina is Javier Vazquez, who's looked good over his last 3 starts, but let's not get carried away... 2 of his last 3 starts came at home, where he's much more comfortable. On the road Vazquez is a different pitcher, going 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA. Not to mention, his career numbers against the Yankees leave a lot to be desired, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts! With the Yankees offense coming back to life, Vazquez will find himself in trouble tonight.

Finally, let's look at perhaps the biggest short term disparity, and that's the bullpen play. White Sox 'pen has been atrocious of late, posting a laughable 9.12 ERA over their last 10 games. New York on the other hand, has been rock-solid, posting a 2.88 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Yankees to take care of business as the suddenly sputtering White Sox will have to wait for a trip to Kansas City before picking up another much-needed win.

Take the NY Yankees behind Mussina over the Chicago White Sox and Vazquez in this MLB match up.


3. Cardinals- Looking over each team's recent play, I can understand why bettors would shy away from the Cardinals in this spot. But let me be the one to tell you, expect the Redbirds to snap out of their funk tonight, and here's why:

First, Edinson Volquez has not been the same pitcher of late, as his innings and pitch counts have risen, his effectiveness has declined. Sure, he was solid at soft-hitting Arizona in his last one, but the 3 starts prior saw him allow 14 runs over his last 18 innings, with no less than 110 pitches thrown in each start. Not only that but his command has been off, walking 6 in his last start, and allowing 16 hits over his last 3. Cardinals offense may be slumping, but a sputtering Volquez is just what the doctor ordered.

Second, let't not forget Kyle Lohse has some payback in order in this match up, as we all know him and Volquez do not like each other after their last meeting (where both pitcher threw at each other, resulting in a 5-game suspension for Lohse). Despite his struggles of late, going 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA over his last 10 starts, most of that is due to a slumping Cardinals offense, as he's posted a solid 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts! Included in those starts were two excellent road efforts, where Lohse allowed 2 runs over his last 14 inning away!

Finally, for all the struggles of this St. Louis club, they still own the edge in two critical categories: A. Though they maybe slumping at the plate, their team batting average is still 15 points higher than the Reds over their last 10 games... So don't tell me the Reds offense is any better than the Cardinals right now. And B. despite their winning streak, the Reds bullpen has been highly suspect over their last 10 games, posting a 4.85 ERA, as compared to the Cards 2.48 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Cardinals to turn it around tonight in Cincy, as they take advantage of a seemingly fatigued Volquez, while Lohse gets his redemption in the process!

Take the Cardinals behind Lohse over the Reds and Volquez in this MLB match up

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Made it a bit easier to read

Thanks bigdaveyt

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

Premium Pick: Dodgers/Pirates Over 8 Runs

Free Pick: Phillies Run Line

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

mvbski wrote:


Made it a bit easier to read

Thanks bigdaveyt

No problem.  I'll give him another shot.  If it's a winner, I'll probably pick him up saturday too.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Rocketman Sports

LA Angels -115

LA Angels are 28-11 this year in day games. LA Angels bullpen has a 3.65 ERA overall this year and a 3.63 ERA on the road this season. Oakland is scoring only 4 runs per game overall this year, 4 runs per game at home and 3.5 runs per game against left handed starters this season. Saunders is 15-7 with a 3.65 ERA overall this year, 9-3 with a 2.74 ERA on the road and 1-0 with a 3.48 ERA his last 3 starts. Saunders has won 4 of 6 against Oakland since 1997. I can't see the Angels getting swept by Oakland in this series. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels today!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Bryan Leonard

St Louis Cardinals +121

Edinson Volquez seems to have hit a wall as of late as his last five starts have been unimpressive. He has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 30 innings. What has made his numbers stay under the radar is that he has allowed just two home runs in his last eight starts. Kyle Lohse on the other hand has been solid in his last five starts allowing just 11 earned runs in 31.1 innings of work. He has been a steady force this year on a St Louis pitching staff that has been battered by injuries. The Reds haven't hit left-handed pitchers well this season so we don't see them coming to life against Lohse. They have averaged just 4.10 runs per game this season vs righties, well below the 4.94 rpg they produce against southpaws. St Louis is one of the best teams in the league away from home with a 38-39 mark for the season. They are worthy of backing here in the underdog role.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

LT Profits

Pittsburgh Pirates +115

The Pittsburgh Pirates erupted for 15 runs while shocking the Los Angeles Dodgers last night, and we look for a second straight upset today with Paul Maholm on the mound. Maholm has been the best pitcher on the Pittsburgh staff and he has been great here at home, where he is 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. This while pitching for a team that is 24 games under .500 overall. Remarkably, Maholm has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts overall and eight of his last 10. Clayton Kershaw has not pitched that great on the road for Los Angeles, as he is just 2-3 with a 5.93 ERA and a horrendous 1.80 WHIP in nine starts away from Dodgers Stadium. He is facing a Pittsburgh lineup that is batting a commendable .295 vs. left-handed pitching over the last 10 games. Look for Maholm to key the upset here.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees Under 8.5

The Yankees are trending heavily to the Under right now, cashing six Under tickets in their last eight ballgames. It’s no surprise, really – this is a team that is used to tuning up for the postseason right about now, not a team that is used to playing out the string of a disappointing season. And there’s little reason to think that this run of Unders ends tonight against the White Sox, after the first three games in the series have all stayed Under the total. Javier Vasquez has been dominant of late. He threw 7.2 innings of three hit, shutout ball against the Tigers in his last outing, his third consecutive quality start. Mike Mussina has been the Yankees staff ace all season long. He held Chicago to four hits and two runs in seven innings of work in his lone appearance against them this year. Both bullpens are in good shape behind the starters, and the wind is expected to blow in from left field tonight, bad news for the hitters against a pair of right handed starters. Take the Under.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Mr A

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees

Chicago's Javier Vazquez (12-13, 4.13) is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.

New York's Mike Mussina (17-9, 3.63 ERA) is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 17-16 with a 4.57 ERA in 38 career starts against the White Sox.

The White Sox have lost seven of their last 10 road games and nine of its last 12 versus the Yankees.
Take the Yankees in the Big Apple. The Yankees are 7-2 in Mussina's last 9 starts, 6-2 in his last 8 at home. The right-hander has won five straight starts against the White Sox at home.

New York Yankees -130


West Virginia at Colorado   

Look for the  Mountaineer's to get back on track with a ground assault against the Buffaloes. West Virginia is16-3 in their last 19 road games.

West Virginia Mountaineers -3

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Gina

Houston Astros at Florida Marlins

The hot Florida Marlins have won their last seven games overall and the last four against the Houston Astros at home, including Wednesday's 14-2 pounding of Houston.

Go with the surging Marlins at Dolphin Stadium for a three-game sweep of Houston. Florida's southpaw Scott Olsen is 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA in two career starts against the Astros.

Florida Marlins -150

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Thanks a lot for the service plays..Doc's Sports College Game of the Year goes Saturday,hope we can get piece of that:) ;D

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nature_one wrote:


Thanks a lot for the service plays..Doc's Sports College Game of the Year goes Saturday,hope we can get piece of that:) ;D

Shouldn't be a problem getting it and your welcome.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Black Widow Sports
   
1* on Florida Marlins -150

The Florida Marlins are catching fire at the end of the season, so we’ll back them at home tonight as our free play. Florida has reeled off 7 straight wins to make one final push for the postseason. Houston is reeling, losers of four straight games including two to the Marlins. Scott Olsen has been solid all season when pitching at home. His 3.23 ERA at home this season in 17 starts shows his consistency. Houston is 1-11 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 2 seasons. Florida is 11-1 (+13.2 Units) against the money line with a well rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Olsen is 16-6 (+11.6 Units) against the money line against NL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take Florida on the Money Line.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Freese

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

San Francisco is 6-1 vs. an opponent that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 6-1 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Giants are 6-0 with Tom Lincecum if he has exactly 4 days of rest and they are 7-3 in his last 10 road starts vs. losing teams. Arizona is 7-15 their last 22 games and they are 6-13 their last 19 games vs. righty starters. The Diamondbacks are 2-6 off a win and they are 4-11 their last 15 games vs. NL West teams. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO

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