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Thursday Service Plays
Re: Thursday Service Plays
Game: North Carolina vs. Rutgers Game Time: 9/11/2008 7:45:00 PM Prediction: North Carolina Reason: I'm taking the points with NORTH CAROLINA. I respect the Scarlet Knights and consider them to be a solid team. However, I also really believe that the Tar Heels are going to be much improved this season and feel that they're currently flying somewhat under the radar. While Rutgers suffered some key losses, most notably Ray Rice, North Carolina brought back a whopping 18 starters. That was the most in the ACC. Butch Davis returns for his second year as head coach. Looking back to last year and we find that the Tar Heels were actually very competitive on the road under Davis. Early in the season, the Tar Heels covered at East Carolina and Virginia Tech and then they closed out the season by losing their final two road games (at Georgia Tech and NC. State) by just two and four points. As I've already stated, I feel that this team will be much improved from last year's. The Tar Heels are 5-3 ATS the last couple of seasons when listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Scarlet Knights were just 1-4 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Note that Fresno State already came in here and upset the Scarlet Knights as a dog in that range. Its true that UNC wasn't overly impressive in defeating McNeese State in its opener. However, I feel that will work in our favor. For starters, it's kept the line generously high. Additionally, it will ensure that the Tar Heels weren't complacent during practice. Senior RT Garrett Reynolds summed up the Tar Heels attitude: "...when we got back in the locker room after the first game, a lot of guys felt it was not even like a win because we know we can play better. We were not happy about it..." Look for a much better effort from the Tar Heels here as they take this game down to the wire with a strong shot at the upset. *Main Event
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Game Time: 9/11/2008 8:10:00 PM Prediction: Chicago White Sox Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Jays had been on a real 'emotional high' recently, as they entered yesterday's game having won 10 straight games. That streak came to an end yesterday though, as the White Sox roughed up Jays' ace Roy Halladay. The Jays attempted to rally late but fell short by a run. That only serves to make the loss that much more frustrating. I also expect the fact that it was Halladay on the mound for that loss to have a negative affect on the team's morale heading into tonight's series finale. Halladay is usually so good that the team really comes to expect him to get it done every time out. Note that the last time the Jays lost one of Halladay's starts, (8/9) they responded by losing 4-0 the following day. Marcum gets the call for Toronto and he's had a solid season. However, he's been much better at home than he has been on the road. At home, he's got a 2.81 ERA with opponents batting just .199. On the road, he's got a 4.37 ERA (1.347 WHIP) with opposing hitters batting .259. He'll be opposed by Gavin Floyd, who will have the advantage of starting against the Jays for the first time. Floyd has enjoyed an excellent season and has gone an impressive 9-2 in 15 home starts, while recording a 3.57 ERA and 1.119 WHIP. Opposing hitters batted just .206 and the Sox were a highly profitable 13-2 (+10.7) in those games. Note that Floyd has lasted an average of 6 2/3 innings in his home starts while Marcum has averaged 5 2/3 innings in his road starts. The Jays average 4.4 runs per game on the road while the White Sox average 5.7 at home. Look for yesterday's game to provide the White Sox with some positive momentum while having the opposite effect on the Jays. Personal Favorite
Re: Thursday Service Plays
Prime Time Delight
I've seen it asked," has Greg Schiano taken this Rutgers program as far as he can?" Schiano enters his eighth season as the head coach of the Scarlet Knights and it's impossible to ignore his accomplishments. Rutgers has played football longer than all but one college program in the country but up until Schiano's arrival in 2001, the school had played in just ONE bowl game (1978's Garden State Bowl). One can understand while the school held an "inferiority complex," as even the school's 11-0 team in 1976 went uninvited during that bowl season. Schiano did not start quickly in New Brunswick but the last three years ('05-'07), he's led the Scarlet Knights to a 26-12 mark and three straight bowl appearances, winning the last two bowl games by scores of 37-10 and 52-30. Rutgers opened '08 by losing at home to an excellent Fresno State team, 24-7. The Scarlet Knights moved the ball well for most of the game (especially in the first half, owning a 202-106 yardage edge) but weren't able to "finish off" their drives. QB Teel was big winner in high school and while he's not "NFL material," he's a solid college QB, who has two terrific WRs in Underwood (65 catches / 7 TDs in '07) and Britt (62 catches / 8 TDs in '07). Both caught six passes vs FSU but neither made any "big plays." Rutgers returns 15 starters but can't replace RB Ray Rice. The year before Rice entered Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights averaged 83.0 YPG on the ground (2.5 YPC). Rice topped 1,000 yards as a freshman in '05, ran for 1,794 yards in '06 and last year ran for 2,012 yards. Rutgers averaged 180.0 YPG on the ground these last three years but Rice left early. Sophomore RB Kordell Young had 96 yards rushing against FSU and by year's end, he won't be a Ray Rice but don't be surprised if he's a 1,000-yard rusher. North Carolina opened its second year under head coach Butch Davis on August 30 with a home game vs McNeese State. While the Tar Heels won 35-27 and senior WR Tate had 397 all-purpose yards, it was far from an impressive performance. Carolina blew a 14-0 lead and actually found itself 20-14 down in the third quarter, before rallying to win. TJ Yates showed promise last year at QB for NC (59.7% / 2.655 yards / 14 TDs and 18 INTs) and in Tate and Nicks (74 catches LY) he has WRs the quality of Underwood and Britt, but the Tar Heels can't expect WR Tate to gain 106 yards rushing (as he did vs McNeese St), every week. The Tar Heels averaged a pathetic 99.0 YPG on the ground LY (3.0 YPC) and I'm not sure the team's running game will be much better this year. The Tar Heels 'D' allowed McNeese St nearly 400 yards (391) and McNeese St had 22 FDs to NC's 13. Rutgers may have opened the '08 year with a loss but the Scarlet Knights visit Navy next (are 6-1 this decade vs the Midshipmen) and then host Morgan St, so with a win here, a 3-1 start is very possible. As for NC, the Tar Heels were 0-6 on the road in '07 and haven't won a road game outside the state of North Carolina since 2002 (0-20!).
Prime Time Delight 15* Rutgers.
Re: Thursday Service Plays
SEA (-117) vs ANA 2* ML WAGER
MIL (-105) vs PHI 2* ML WAGER
Rutgers / North Carolina Under 48.0 3* BEST BET of the DAY
First I want to start off by saying that I highly suggest and advise that you hold off on placing this wager until as close to kick-off as possible...Those of you who have been with me for a while now have seen more than enough examples of why it is so important to bet the game the way we believe the market is going to react to wagers from BOTH, sharps and recreational bettors...
This number is at 48 right now at Bodog and I have already received 48 from locals that I use...and with the amount of money that is expected to be bet by the rec players...We feel strongly that the books will be forced to move the number higher, even at the risk of the outfits coming in and getting the best of it...
The bottom line is that as of right now, this number is just way too high and to be perfectly honest, I felt that even the opening number of 43.4 / 44 was a bit inflated due to the fact it was an ESPN Match-Up on "Prime-Time"...And with the chance of this one going even higher, I really feel that there is only one way to play this one...and that is by GOING UNDER...
Both teams have had 2 weeks to prep for each other so I really expect them to come out knowing the others offesnsive philosophy pretty well...and the game-planning was definately made easier...
Although the strength of Rutgers has shifted to the passing game...they saw what abandoning the run will do to you at the hands of Fresno St...I also expect Rutgers to get back to their real strength...limiting the opposition from scoring and keeping it ugly if possible...
And we have seen Carolina have no problems themselves playing in close, ugly ball games in the past...and I also expect their defense to bring their A-Game in this one...
Let's be straight...this one is on ESPN or there is no way this Total would have ever gone this high...not on a Saturday...And from the way the Total continues to move without any sharp presence really tells me that the only fear the books have is that if they reach a key number...they will open the doors for the sharps to come on in....Finally, all things just point to an UNDER in this one when you put your pre-conceived thoughts to the side and really focus in on the number...the value...and how the market is reacting to the money coming in...
So let's go ahead and take the UNDER 48 or BETTER...and see if we can stay UNDEFEATED on 3*'s This Week...VR
NCAAFB 2* TEASER PLAY of the DAY
RUTGERS +1 & UNDER 55 (2*) Teaser Bet
Here is a situation where we not only get a better number on our Total with the Teaser...but there is no way that anyone can tell me that according to the Power Ratings for these 2 clubs...that RUTGERS doesn't offer incredible value...
The Bottom Line is that if Rutgers hadn't been blown out like they were by Fresno on National Television...this number would have been a lot higher....because not only was Rutgers in the Oddsmakers Top 15 to start the season...but they are playing at home where they have been dominant the past few seasons...Sure Carolina is in the ACC and a much improved team, but we aren't asking for a blow-out, nor even a cover...We need Rutgers, to just play up to their capabilities, and that should ensure a 1-1 record when it's all said and done, at home Tonight...This is just an excellent example of Value in a Number...VR