Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Jacksonville at Tennessee
The 2008 season opens much the same as 2007 did for the Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS) and Tennessee Titans (10-7 SU & 8-8-1 ATS). Last year the Titans opened the season by physically pushing the Jags around their own field as the Titans rushed for 282 yards, handing the Jaguars vaunted defense a very humbling 13-10 defeat. Chris Brown led the Titans with a career high 175 yards that day. Someone else will need to do the main damage this time around, as Brown is out for the season with an injury. LenDale White will be the lead man in this year?s script, though rookie RB Chris Johnson likely will play a huge part as well. The first round pick of Johnson is no longer being second guessed now, what with Brown being hurt, and also seeing the rookie?s exciting potential revealed in the preseason. He may be the fastest RB in the league, and provides the Titans with a breakaway threat they sorely lacked. New offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will undoubtedly try to limit mistakes and stick to a conservative game plan on the ground. He would love to air it out more often, but the slow development of starting QB Vince Young limits his options, not to mention the lack of any real threat at wide receiver.
The Jacksonville offense is also limited by their ineptitude at the WR position. Quarterback David Garrard had a breakout season last year, but his play in preseason would indicate he may take a step back this year. The fact that he finished 2007 as the 3rd rated QB in the NFL, may have been one of the biggest surprises of the year. If he were to regress this year, it would not shock too many experts. His breakout season made him a rich man as he cashed in with a team record 6 year $60 million contract extension. Along with the big contract comes pressure to perform, something which Garrard has never had to deal with, since his resounding success was almost unexpected. The biggest story out of Jacksonville?s training camp came just this past week when backup offensive tackle Richard Collier was shot in his apartment. The news of their teammate fighting for his life has been more than just a little distracting. Others may see this tragedy as motivation, let?s go out and ?win one for the gipper? type of stuff. In truth, it could not possibly have come at a worse time. The last thing a team wants as it prepares for a new season is a monumental distraction. The off field problems continue to mount, team leader Fred Taylor?s recent arrest being the tip of the iceberg, of a turbulent off season for Jacksonville.
The Titans conservative smash mouth style may find success once again Sunday, since the Jags will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator and a retooled defensive line. Gone is pro bowl DT Marcus Stroud, and 1st round draft pick Derrick Harvey was just recently signed. The Jaguars had intended for the rookie to contribute immediately, that thought process is long gone now, since he missed all of camp and will be so far behind he may not be productive for weeks. The Titans gained 458 yards rushing combined in the 2 meetings last year. If the Titans even approach that type of success, it would be hard for Jacksonville to overcome.
The line posted on this game is what drew my attention immediately. Last year when these 2 teams met in Tennessee the home-standing Titans were 4 point favorites, this year they are 3 point dogs! That in itself is enough reason for me to like the Titans, we have a very real 7 point increase in line value from the last meeting between these 2 teams! In reality, Tennessee should be about a 1 point favorite here today, so no matter how you look at it, there is tremendous line value. Once again the technical trends suggest we are also on the right side by taking the Titans. The dog is 14-7 ATS in the series, including 7-2 the last 9 meetings. The Jaguars do not fare well when installed as road favorites against their division, just 1-7 ATS the last 8. They also burn money when facing a division opponent with revenge losing 4 of the last 5 ATS in that situation. The Titans on the other hand thrive when made underdogs at home in division games, 5-1 ATS the last 6 times in that role. They are also 4-1 ATS when attempting revenge against a division foe. Vince Young has a 10-2 ATS mark in his career starts facing division opponents, a trend which also attests to Fischer?s coaching style against familiar opponents. With the dark cloud hanging over the Jaguar team, this game may be the furthest thing from their minds this week. Tennessee wins this one outright.
Verdict: Jacksonville 17 Tennessee 24
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON TENNESSEE +3
Re: Sunday Service Plays
AFC East Game of the Year.
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins plus the points over the Jets. Both teams will be fielding new signal-callers in this opening game. Brett Favre, of course, will be behind center for the Flyboys, while the Dolphins will be led by ex-Jet QB Chad Pennington. Last year, Miami suffered thru one of the worst seasons in NFL history, as it recorded just one victory against 15 defeats. And that's the key to our wager. Over the past 25 years, there have been eight teams that have failed to win two games. All eight of those teams covered the spread in Week 1 the following season, with six of the eight winning outright as underdogs. Let's take a look at the last five times this system popped. In 1991, the Patriots upset the Colts 16-7 as 9-point dogs after going 1-15 the year before. Then, in 1992, the Colts upset the Ravens 14-3 as 5-point dogs, after going 1-15 the previous season. In 1997, the Jets upset the Seahawks 41-3 as 6-point dogs, after a 1-15 record in 1996. Then, in 2001, the Chargers were actually favored by 2.5 in their opening game vs. Washington after going 1-15 in 2000, and the Chargers won 30-3. The last time this system was active was six years ago, and Carolina upset Baltimore 10-7 as 2-point dogs. What's interesting to note, other than that this system is a perfect 8-0 since 1983, is that the last five times our team has held its opponent to seven points or less! The average final score for those five games was 22-4, with the average pointspread being +4 points. Look for another upset on Sunday. AFC East Game of the Year on the Dolphins.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
BUF -1.0 vs SEA
Very tough spot to start the season for the Seattle Seahawks, as they have two divisional home games following this jaunt to the Eastern Time Zone.
The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in their last three games traveling across the country to start the season - failing to cover the spread by more than 11 points.
Buffalo matched up quite well against teams when hosting, as they only failed to cover against the Super Bowl Champion and runner-ups.
Expect the Bills to pounce on this opportunity, as they've covered their last three games when hosting teams that have traveled at least two time zones.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Sixth Sense Sports
Cincinnati –1.5 BALTIMORE 38
Baltimore was terrible on offense last year averaging just 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl, including just 5.1yps against 6.0yps. They drafted Joe Flacco at quarterback and he will get the start but it doesn’t appear he is ready to help the offense improve that much, if at all. The defense also suffered because of injuries in the secondary. They allowed just 2.9ypr against 4.0ypr but allowed a very uncharacteristic 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl overall on defense. Luckily for Baltimore they get Cincinnati in week one. A team that seems to be getting worse each year under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals defense continues to be porous, allowing 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.6yps against 5.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.0yppl overall. The offense still performed above average, gaining 6.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. With Chad Johnson possibly hurting and Rudi Johnson gone (although he didn’t do much last year) it’s questionable whether this offense will be any better and it doesn’t appear the defense will be much better. Baltimore has lost three of the last four games here against Cincinnati and a team like Cincinnati can pose problems if they get ahead against a bad offense like Baltimore. Cincinnati was just 1-4 ATS as a road favorite last year and the only win was a meaningless season final at Miami. Baltimore qualifies in a week one situation, which is 88-53-5. They don’t qualify in the better subsets of that situation and the part they qualify in isn’t good enough to make a best bet. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 2.5 points. I will lean lightly with the better defense, home dog and the team with the situation favoring them. Baltimore was a home dog four times last year. They went 2-2 ATS but the fewest total points their games totaled were 48 points. In four of their five road games last year as road favorites, Cincinnati totaled at least 47 points. I can’t trust the Baltimore offense to do their part but I will also lean towards the over with a low total. BALTIMORE 24 CINCINNATI 23
NY Jets –3 MIAMI 36
New era in NY with Brett Favre running the offense. This should greatly improve a Jets offense that added help on the offensive line, has pretty good receivers in Cotchery and Coles along with Bubba Franks and Dustin Keller. Their offense averaged just 5.3yps against 5.9yps last year and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl but their passing game should be at least average this year. The Jets defense was just average allowing 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They face a Miami offense that was just as brutal as the Jets, averaging just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense was worse, allowing 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They did improve their quarterback position with Chad Pennington. While I’m not a big believer in Pennington, he is an upgrade over what they had. Miami qualifies in an opening day situation that is 6-0. Last years numbers would have favored Miami by one point but with Favre now in charge, I would make the Jets a two to three point favorite. Predicted total is 40 points and that number probably gets better with Favre now starting. Hard for me to take Miami in this game. Weak lean towards the Jets and the over. NY JETS 24 MIAMI 17
NEW ENGLAND –15.5 Kansas City 44.5
I expect the Patriots to drop off a little bit this year. I guess that’s not saying much seeing there is no way they can duplicate what they did they did last year. Brady is a little banged up and their defense isn’t getting any younger but I don’t expect them to have much trouble against a bad Chiefs team. NE averaged 7.8yps against 6.0yps and 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Their defense allowed 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They will face a bad Chiefs offense that averaged 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Their defense was average allowing 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t see their offense improving much and find it hard to believe they can stay with NE in this game even though it’s a large number. NE does qualify in a week one situation, which is 88-53-5 but they don’t qualify in the better subsets. Numbers favor NE by 17 points and predict about 46 points. NEW ENGLAND 33 KANSAS CITY 13
PITTSBURGH –6 Houston 43
Pittsburgh struggled on offense last year allowing a lot of quarterback sacks. They lost their best offensive lineman, Alan Faneca, to the Jets. The offense was just average gaining 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense, as usual, was terrific allowing just 4.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Houston improved greatly last year, especially on offense. They averaged just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr but averaged 6.8yps against 5.9yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl overall. Andre Johnson missed a good number of those games as well but they still posted very good numbers. The defense was below average, allowing 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Houston is improved this year as they were last year but they are just 5-24 SU in their history on the road against a .500 or better team with their average loss by 14 points (not including week one games but I assume Pittsburgh is at least a .500 team this year). Three of those wins were at Jacksonville. Even though they were improved last year they were still just 1-5 SU against .500 or better teams on the road with the average loss by 12 points. In the Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh is now 20-0 SU during the regular season when they are favored by five points or more at home. Seventeen of those twenty games produced wins of nine points or more, with the exception of a one point win over Baltimore a few years ago, a three point win over Miami in the mud game last year and a three point win over Cleveland that they completely dominated but kick returns and an interception return kept Cleveland in the game. They are 15-4-1 ATS during that span. In other words, when they are supposed to win, they do so in convincing fashion. Pittsburgh qualifies in a week one situation, which is 88-53-5 and a subset, which is 64-34-4. They also qualify in a week one situation, which is 55-19-3. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 5.5 points before applying the situations and predict about 48 points. Pittsburgh sports a much better rush offense and defense and that is usually a recipe for success against the spread. They also sport a much better pass defense. PITTSBURGH 30 HOUSTON 17
Jacksonville –3 TENNESSEE 36
I had Jacksonville in a Best Bet in their opener last year against Tennessee and the Titans came in and ran all over Jacksonville. Jacksonville improved greatly on offense last year with David Garrard as the quarterback. They averaged 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.7yps against 5.9yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense was just average allowing 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl and they lost more defensive personnel this year. Tennessee was not good on offense last year averaging just 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl but they played good defense allowing just 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. Jacksonville revenged that loss last year by going to Tennessee and winning 28-13. They have won three of the past four games here but the other two wins were by just three points each. Prior to that they lost the five previous road trips to Tennessee. Jacksonville qualifies in a week one situation, which is 61-20-3. Tennessee has been very good as a home dog with Vince Young at quarterback, going 5-1 ATS (not including his first game against Dallas). Jacksonville has struggled on the road as a road favorite, going just 1-5 ATS the last two years. Numbers favor Jacksonville by 2.5 points before accounting for the situations. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on Jacksonville here with the spread history of both teams in their fav/dog roles. Jacksonville has some injuries at the receiver position and with the shooting of their backup offensive lineman this week, there is just added question marks. JACKSONVILLE 23 TENNESSEE 18
Detroit –3 ATLANTA 40.5
Detroit improved last year on offense averaging 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl, although they were just average running and throwing the ball. But, because they threw so much, their offensive numbers looked better than average. On defense they were not good, allowing 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They also appeared to quit on the season losing seven of their last eight games. Atlanta starts over with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Falcons struggled throwing the ball last year averaging just 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They allowed 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl on defense. I’ve got no situations on either team. Numbers favor Atlanta by three points and predict about 50 points but that is based on the pass happy offense of Mike Martz, who is now gone. I’ll lean with Detroit because I think they have better talent at this point in the season with a lean towards the over as well. DETROIT 27 ATLANTA 23
BUFFALO –1 Seattle 38.5
Buffalo offense struggled last year averaging just 16 points per game and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl, including just 5.6yps against 6.0yps. They were also below average on defense across the board, allowing 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Seattle allowed 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl. Buffalo has been a pretty reliable team over the years as a home favorite of three or less or a home dog of three or less. They are 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games in that role. The numbers are pretty good before that as well. Seattle is a banged up team on defense and offense missing key receivers and Matt Hasslebeck missed most of the preseason. Buffalo qualifies in a week one situation, which is 61-20-3. Numbers favor Seattle by three points and predict about 37 points. Not enough value for me as this line as moved against us and that will keep me off the Bills as a Best Bet. BUFFALO 20 SEATTLE 17
NEW ORLEANS –3 Tampa Bay 42.5
Saints were very good on offense last year, gaining 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl overall. Unfortunately they allowed 7.1yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl overall. TB improved their passing game with Jeff Garcia, averaging 6.4yps against 6.2yps and also ran the ball better, averaging 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr. The defense, as usual, was very good allowing 5.2yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 6.1yppl. Saints qualify in a week one situation, which is 61-20-3 but there is no value in this play. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 45 points. TB has played here the last six years winning four of the six (four of the last five) and the two losses were by three points each. They have dominated NO in New Orleans. Solid situation favoring NO but no value, past history which suggests they will struggle to cover this game as a favorite along with TB having a much better defense make it hard for me take New Orleans in this game. Tough to get rich laying points with an inferior defense. I will lean their way because of the situation. NEW ORLEANS 24 TAMPA BAY 21
PHILADELPHIA –7.5 St Louis 44
Philly was above average on offense last year but not as good as they would have liked. Their passing game was just average, gaining 6.0yps against 6.0yps. The running game averaged 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr and they averaged 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl overall. The defense was good again, allowing just 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl and figures to improve with Asante Samuel added to the team this year. Rams were terrible on offense gaining just 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They suffered numerous injuries to running back, quarterback and offensive line last year. The defense was below average as usual, allowing 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Philadelphia qualifies in a week one situation, which is 88-53-5, including subsets, which are 64-34-4 and 42-10-1. Numbers favor Philly by 9.5 points before accounting for the situations and predict about 39 points, based mostly on the anemic offense of the Rams from last year. I don’t see the Rams being able to keep up with the Philly offense. Philly has injuries at the receiver position but they should be able to do enough and I expect their defense to force turnovers as well. PHILADELPHIA 27 ST LOUIS 10
Dallas –5.5 CLEVELAND 49
Dallas struggled after they beat Green Bay last year. It appeared they thought that was their ticket to the SB as they failed to cover their last five games, including their playoff game against the Giants. They averaged 7.4yps against 6.1yps and 6.0yppl against 5.2yppl overall. The defense was also good allowing just 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. The Browns improved greatly last year on offense. They averaged 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense struggled, especially against the run, allowing 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr. They allowed 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They added Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams on the defensive line to improve their run defense. Cleveland applies to a week one situation, which is 88-53-5, including subsets, which are 64-34-4, 42-10-1 and 13-1. Numbers favor Dallas by just two points and predict about 54 points. Solid situations on Cleveland and value as well. This line has been bet up from the –3 or –3.5 it started at. Cleveland has some injuries but I will take a flyer based on the situations and value. Not real confident in the play but have to trust the numbers and the situations sometimes. May want to wait on this one as I only see it going higher. DALLAS 28 CLEVELAND 27
San Diego –8.5 CAROLINA 41.5
Chargers covered their last nine games last year after a poor start. Maybe it just took some time for them to adjust to new head coach Norv Turner. SD averaged just 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl on offense. The defense allowed just 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl as well. Carolina really struggled on offense, averaging just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They allowed 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl on defense. The poor passing numbers were the product of losing Jake Delhomme at quarterback for the majority of the season. I don’t have any situations on this game and numbers favor SD by 9.5 points and predict about 40 points. I like the potential of the Carolina rushing game and their defense to keep this game closer than the spread. SAN DIEGO 23 CAROLINA 17
Arizona –2.5 SAN FRANCISCO 42
SF was brutal on offense last year with Alex Smith at qb. They averaged just 4.1yps against 6.1yps and 4.1yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense was average, allowing 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl but 6.3yps against 6.0yps. I would think their offense will get much more efficient this year with J. T. O’Sullivan at qb and Mike Martz now running the offense. They’ll face Arizona who was above average on offense, gaining 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl, including 6.6yps against 6.1yps. The defense was below average allowing 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Arizona by 2.5 points and predict about 44 points. These two have historically played pretty high scoring games. Arizona has an above average passing offense and both teams have below average pass defenses. SF should be much improved on offense but until I see it I can’t bank on it. I will lean towards the better team at this point. ARIZONA 24 SAN FRANCISCO 21
INDIANAPOLIS –9.5 Chicago 44
Indy had great numbers last year that tailed off near the end of the season as they missed Marvin Harrison for a good amount of time. They still ended up averaging 7.0yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl but their rush offense averaged just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr. The defense was very good allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl overall. That was a huge improvement over the year before. The Bears offense was terrible, gaining just 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.5yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. And the defense, with injuries, was just average allowing 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Indy qualifies in a week one situation, which is 88-53-5, including a subset, which is 64-34-4. Those situations are not the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Indy by 12 and predict about 44 points. A few question marks for Indy to begin the season. Peyton Manning has missed all of preseason but he should be ready to go. The fact Indy cut two of their reserve quarterbacks tells me they believe Manning is fine. Jeff Saturday, their center, is out for an extended period and that could affect their offense. The Bears are going with Kyle Orton, who is probably less dangerous to them than Rex Grossman. I’m not a big believer in the Bears who have nobody at the receiver position but too many question marks with Indy early in the season to make any best bets on them. INDIANAPOLIS 28 CHICAGO 17
3% PITTSBURGH –6
3% PHILADELPHIA –7.5
3% CLEVELAND +5.5
Re: Sunday Service Plays
2 units Pittsburgh -6.5
3 units St. Louis +9
5 units New England -15.5
5 units Buffalo -1.5
10 units Dallas -5.5
10 units Indianapolis -9.5
UNDERDOG OF THE DAY NFL SUNDAY.....10 units Atlanta +3
TEASER OF THE WEEKEND.....10 units Miami +13, Buffalo +8.5, Indianapolis -.5
PARLAY OF THE WEEKEND.....5 units Dallas/Indianapolis
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