Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

kbhooops

5 units Houston/Milw OVER 9 +103 **POD**
5 units Seattle Mariners +1.5 +120

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Bob Akmens

4* Chicago White Sox

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Larry Ness

LOS / COL Over 7.5

Over the final two-thirds of last year, Jeff Francis was one of the NL's top pitchers, finishing 17-9 (4.22) on the season, as the Rockies went 22-12 in his starts. At plus-$1,094 vs the moneyline, he finished as the second-biggest "money-maker" in all of MLB in '07. However, he's hardly looked like the same pitcher this year. Francis will take a 3-8 mark with a 5.74 ERA into tonight's game, with the Rockies having gone just 6-13 in his 19 starts (minus-$816). He'll face an LA lineup which has been solid vs lefties all season (22-15, averaging 5.1 RPG) and has been rejuvenated lately with the additions of Casey Blake and Manny. Chad Billingsley (12-9, 3.10 ERA) leads the Dodgers in wins, ERA and in Ks (162) and is 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA in his last five starts. However, all of his last three starts have gone 'over' the total and with the Rockie bats 'heating up' (Colorado has scored 32 runs in winning its last four games) plus the Dodgers sporting their "new and improved" lineup, I see this game easily topping this very low total. Take Col/LAD Over.

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SEABASS

20* Oak/Minn Under
20* Sea/CWS Over
20* NYY
20* Det
20* Pitt/StL Under

100* VEGAS STEAM PLAY-San Francisco

COMP-Milwaukee

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Its certainly impressive what the Angels have managed to accomplish on the road this season. They are not only the only American League team to have a winning record on the road, they are still 14 games above .500 on the road despite losing each of the first two games in this series to the Rays. To put this amazing 39-25 record in perspective, they are one of only four MLB teams with a wining record away from home! The other three are all in the National League with the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Philadelphia Phillies all above .500 away from home. Now that we said all that good stuff about the Angels let us all say this: Theyve now met their match! The Rays have the best home record out of all 30 MLB teams with a fantastic 47-17 mark on the season. Wednesday evening they also send one of Tropicana Fields most dominating hurlers to the mound! Matt Garza is 6-2 at home this season with a 2.47 ERA and hes holding opponents to a .225 batting average at Tampa Bay! Note that Garza has allowed 0 or 1 run in six of his last dozen starts. That is dominance and hes facing an Angels team tonight that has been having trouble scoring runs! The Angels lineup has suddenly hit a brick wall as theyre averaging just three runs per game in their last five games. This wont cut it against a Rays club that is averaging over 5.5 runs per game this month. Keep in mind Tampa Bay plays with a lot of confidence at home too and confidence is something Angels starter Jered Weaver could be lacking in tonight! The Los Angeles right-hander has averaged just five innings per start in his last five starts. Also, hes given up 18 earned runs on 10 walks and 29 hits in these 25 innings. That works out to a 1.56 WHIP and those are hardly the numbers that Weaver is use to producing and his struggles will continue here. Weaver is jut 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in his career starts indoors and hes likely to struggle against at Tropicana Field tonight as Tampa Bay stays red hot at home!

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Info Plays

3* on Florida Marlins +115

Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (FLORIDA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games.  This is a 58-27 ML System hitting 68.2% since 1997.  The Giants were shut out last night by Ricky Nolasco, and they’ll struggle against Scott Olsen again tonight.  Olsen is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in 3 career starts against the Giants, never allowing more than 3 earned runs in any of those starts.  Bet the Marlins on the road playing with much more than pride on the line.


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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Chris James Sports

Play Atlanta Braves +124

The Braves and Mets square off tonight in the second game of this division series. The pitching matchup in this game is the sole reason for my selection on the Atlanta Braves. The Mets send Mike Pelfrey to the mound who is 11-8 with a 3.91 ERA on the year. Mike Pelfrey is 11-2 in his last 13 starts! So you might be saying, while then why is the selection on the Braves. Well the reason is because Pelfrey is 0-2 against the Braves this year with a 10.61 ERA. On top of that, Pelfrey is 0-7 in his last 7 starts vs. the NL East. Add on top of that the fact that Manuel has already said he will most likely be limiting Pelfrey's pitch count tonight, because he has never pitched this much in a single year and they don't want to burn him out. That means we will get to see the terrible New York Mets bullpen tonight! That is a recipe for some good run support by the Braves tonight for one of their top young pitchers. The Braves send Jair Jurrjens to the mound tonight who is 11-8 with a 3.15 ERA. The Braves are 5-1 in Jurrjens last 6 road starts as well as 7-2 in his last 9 starts vs. teams with a winning record. Jurrjens is 2-0 against the Mets this year with a 2.77 ERA. In his two wins he only gave up four earned runs and seven hits over 13 innings! Look for Jurrjens to repeat much of that tonight! 

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

EZWINNERS

2 STAR: (952) MILWAUKEE (-1.5)(+$110) over Houston
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $220)

2 STAR: (974) BALTIMORE (+$116) over Boston
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $232)

2 STAR: (953) WASHINGTON (+$220) over Philadelphia
(Listing Balester and Myers)
(Risking $200 to win $440)

2 STAR: (978) TAMPA BAY (-$120) over LA Angels
(Listing Garza only)
(Risking $240 to win $200)

2 STAR: (980) TEXAS (-$122) over Detroit
(Listing Millwood only)
(Risking $244 to win 4200)

2 STAR: (966) SAN FRANCISCO (-$126) over Florida
(Listing Cain only)
(Risking $252 to win $200)

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John Ryan

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles       

Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Baltimore – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-8 making 26.7 units for 81% since 1997. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that is an average hitting team batting = .265 to .279 and with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games and is now facing a poor AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA>=6.20. Boston starter Buchholz has not won since coming off the DL July 11th; he is 0-5 with 1 no decision and has allowed a minimum of 3 ER in each of those starts. Over his last 3 starts he has been shelled to the tune of 8.22 ERA and a 1.826 WHIP and has allowed 5 home runs in just 15.3 IP. This season Baltimore is 7-2 making 6 units revenging 4 or more straight losses versus opponent in last 2 years. Orioles starter Waters is certainly the better the starter in this matchup. The southpaw held the Angels to one hit in eight shutout innings in his winning debut. Five days later, Texas scored four times in the first, but he still managed to get through four innings. In his most recent start, Waters shut out the Tigers through four. Boston’s bullpen is really struggling of late posting a 6.75 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP allowing 30 hits in the past 7 games spanning 22.7 IP. In divisional games the bullpen has done poorly too, sporting a 5.16 ERA in 122 IP. Last, this is one of the strongest plays I have seen generated by the AiS in several seasons. This play ranks among the top-25 strongest on my All-time list spanning 15+ seasons. Given the 15* grading, there is no advantage in playing a parlay with the UNDER. I suggest just sticking with the discipline of wagering 15* on Baltimore and 3* on the UNDER. Thank you very much for purchasing this double guaranteed play and best of luck to us.


Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: UNDER    

Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Baltimore/Boston – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-9 UNDER for 80% since 1997. Play under in August games with all teams where the total is 11 or higher and is a good team sporting a win percentage of 54% to 62% and is playing a marginal losing team posting a win percentage of 46% to 49%. AiS shows an 86% probability that Waters will complete 6+ innings and should that occur the UNDER has an 82% probability of winning. Take the UNDER.

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Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections

TOP RATED LATE STEAM BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
Kansas City and Cleveland OVER 9

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Rick George Guaranteed Selections

7* DIAMOND PLAY GEM
San Diego-Arizona UNDER 7

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Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections

4* Rockies/Dodgers over

LA's offense is cooking with Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez joining Matt Kemp and Jeff Kent. The Dodgers hit four homers off the Milwaukee pitchers, giving them 22 in the 16 games since Manny Ramirez joined the team. That's 1.37 homers per game, more than twice the 0.68 homers per game the team averaged before Ramirez's arrival. "Knowing that Manny is in the middle of our lineup certainly makes it a little tougher for the other team to take liberties with us," Manager Joe Torre said. "Manny is basically here to make it tougher to get through the middle of the lineup." LA is on a 9-5 over the total run and gets to tee off Colorado starter Jeff Francis (5.74 ERA). His ERA is 6.23 his last 3 starts. Colorado's offense, however, has been playing well of late and LA starter Chad Billingsley has a 6.46 ERA against them. This total is too low, play the Rockies/Dodgers over the total

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King Creole

2** OVER THE TOTAL / WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2** OVER THE TOTAL / BOSTON RED SOX @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES

1* OVER THE TOTAL / ATLANTA BRAVES @ NEW YORK METS

There are some fantastic "OVER" Umpires working on the Wednesday schedule... and we will ride three of them in particularly HOT recent form.

In the Washington / Philadelphia game, ED RAPUANO will be 'behind the dish'. His YTD record in games he has umped is 16-8-2 O/U on the season. A solid overall percentage of 67%. But we can do better. He's gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U In his last 5 games... with average combined runs at 13.8. He has notched 11 or more total runs in EVERY one of those 5 games. He's also gone 6-1 O/U on Wednesdays... and 9-2-1 O/U In ALL National League games this year.

In the Boston / Baltimore game will be a guy that we have been on in each of his last 6 games. ALFONSO MARQUEZ will be 'behind the dish' in Baltimore this evening. His YTD record stands at 16-9-1 O/U. It's what he has done since the beginning of July that really has me excited. he's 'only' gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U In his last 9 games since May 1st. Average combined runs throughout his big streak is 14.1. He's had exceptional OVER success in American League games, going 10-2 O/U so far in the 2008 season... and 18-5 O/U in the last 2 years. We also note that he is 3-1-1 O/U in his last 5 Red Sox games and 4-1-1 O/U in his last 6 Oriole games.

The Atlanta/ New York Met game features a relative newcomer in ANGEL CAMPOS. His record thus far in 2008 stands at 13-5 O/U.... with an average of 11.3 combined runs per game. He's on a HOT run of his own as EACH of his last 5 games have gone 'OVER' the Total. Those 5 games have seen combined run totals of 12, 14, 20, 17, and 13. That's an average of 15.2 RPG! In National League games for the year, his record stands at 10-2 O/U. And he's also 10-3 O/U in 'Righty vs Righty' pitching matchups.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Plus10Club

Ethan Law   
Pick: Rockies / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 

Opposite Action Plays 
Pick: CLEVELAND INDIANS

Sunday Selections 
Pick: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS    

LT Profits
Pick: BALTIMORE ORIOLES 

Mike Lineback
Pick: Marlins / Giants UNDER 7.5     

Mike Rose 
Pick: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -1.5

Rocketman Sports   
Pick: ATLANTA BRAVES

Alex Smart   
Pick: ATLANTA BRAVES

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Oscarxena Sports

Pittsburgh/St. Louis Over 9 +1.10 (4 Unit Play)

These teams played a low scoring affair last night but St. Louis has had a lot of success scoring runs when taking on the Pirates this year. They have scored 73 runs against the Pirates this year in 13 games and the Over has cashed in 8 times with a push and that includes last night's game. The Pirates will hand the ball to Jason Davis who has made two starts after taking over a spot in the rotation and although he has pitched well I am not sold on him. The Cardinals will hand the ball to Todd Wellemeyer who has also been pitching pretty well lately but his ERA at home this year is 4.66 and although the Pirate offense has been having trouble scoring runs this might be the type of pitcher that they can reach. The home plate umpire for tonight's game is Chad Fairchild and so far this year he is 17-10 to the Over and has done fairly well with each team for the Over as well as the Pirates are 4-3 to the Over and the Cardinals are 5-1-1 to the Over. I think the Cardinals might score 7-8 runs tonight so we should only need a couple by the Pirates to cash this one.


Atlanta +1.23 (3 Unit Play)

This line has dropped and to be honest I missed it earlier but I still think at this price it is a good line to bet the Braves here today. Atlanta has basically quit on the season but they fought back last night only to blow it late and tonight they will hand the ball to Jair Jurrjens who on the year has a 3.04 ERA on the road this year in 77 innings of work with a 1.22 WHIP and has won both of his starts against them this year going 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA. The Mets will counter with Mike Pelfrey who is also very good at home this year as he has a 2.81 ERA in 83 1/3 innings of work with a 1.22 WHIP but he has struggled against the Braves going 0-2 against them this year and getting blown out in both starts. The home plate umpire for today's game is Angel Campos who so far this year has seen the road team win 13 out of 20 games and with Pelfrey possibly being limited to how long he will be pitching I recommend a play on the Braves here today.


Colorado/LA Dodgers Under 7 1/2 -1.02 (3 Unit Play)

I had the winner last night taking this contest Over but I will come right back with an Under play this evening. The Rockies will hand the ball to Jeff Francis who is still trying to find his form since coming off the DL but he has pitched well against the Dodgers not only in his career but this year as well. Francis is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts thus far this year and in his career he is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA against them. The Dodgers are countering with Chad Billingsley who has a 3.28 ERA at home this year so far but he is 0-2 in his career against the Rockies with a 4.58 ERA. The home plate umpire tonight is Brian O'Nora who is 14-11 so far this year to the Under and although he has not been behind home plate with Francis he has been behind the dish for two starts by Billingsley in which Chad won both starts with one Under coming in with a push. I think this game will be low scoring tonight and I like this one Under the total.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

KELSO

High Rollers Club

15 units - Phillies -1.5


Best Bets Club

10 units Arizona
4 units STL -1.5
3 units Det/Tex over

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BIG AL

DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH BLOWOUT

Kansas City Royals

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Lenny Del Genio

20* AL Total of the Month

Detroit/Texas Over

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AJ Apollo

3* Baltimore Orioles

3* Atlanta Braves

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ASA

TEXAS RANGERS (Millwood) -vs- Detroit Tigers (Robertson)
PLAY: OVER 11.5 1* (Regular Play)

Residing in Texas, it is only natural for me to pay a little extra attention to Rangers games – although my passion is for the Philadelphia teams as the Rickenbach family is from Pennsylvania…however, I digress here so back to the key point: From watching each of the first two games of this series it is plain to see that these are two of the most potent lineups in baseball PLUS two of the shakiest bullpens in the majors. Yes, this total may seem ‘scary’ at 11.5 but, simply put, the odds maker can not set an accurate number on this game. The fact is that these games are just getting “nuts” in the latter innings and we feel a 13 or more would have been better suited for this game. There is no reason that either team should fall short of six runs here and that means we’d be guaranteed of no worse than a 7-6 game! Why the expectation for all the runs here? Each of the Tigers last three games have flown over the total and they’ve averaged nearly 18 runs per game! As for the Rangers, each of their last three games have flown over the total and the average runs scored is over 13 per game! What we’ve witnessed in these games is that, as usual, the hitters are seeing the ball very well at Rangers Ballpark and, as usual, the ball is carrying very well in Arlington. As long as we can again keep the rain away from Rangers Ballpark, most is expected before and after this game, then we should be in good shape for another game with plenty of fireworks tonight. Both of these bullpens have been shaky in this series. The Tigers and Rangers bullpens have combined to allow an amazing 15 runs in the first two games of this series. They haven’t been helped by poor fielding but the fact is they aren’t able to get key outs either. This allows for more late inning shenanigans tonight in Arlington but we probably won’t even need them. That’s because the two starters tonight should help insure that this one gets over the total by the middle innings! Kevin Millwood of the Rangers is simply not healthy and, therefore, he’s not effective. Nate Robertson of the Tigers is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his last four starts. He got hammered by Tampa Bay on Friday in his first start after coming off of the disabled list and he allowed four homers in that game right here at Rangers Ballpark! This is Millwood’s first start against them this season and he does have some decent career numbers against the Tigers. However, as always, it’s the more recent numbers that are most important and Millwood faced Detroit twice last season and he lost to the Tigers both times and compiled an ugly 9.31 ERA against them. The only hope for Millwood tonight is plenty of run support from his teammates and that is quite likely to occur with Robertson on the mound for Detroit. The Tigers southpaw is struggling badly again as he has just one win in his last ten starts. His most recent outing was another bad one as he allowed five runs on eight hits and five walks in just 5.1 innings of work against the Orioles. Even more concerning for Robertson is the fact that this rough outing versus Baltimore occurred at home; now he’s back on the road where he’s struggled even more this season. In fact, the Detroit left-hander, has a sky-high 16.55 ERA in his three road starts since the All Star break. The last time Robertson made a start at Rangers Ballpark he didn’t even record an out. The first six batters all reached base and all six came around to score as Robertson left the game in the first inning without recording a single out! Overall this season he has a 7.59 ERA on the road and teams have pounded him at a .340 clip. It’s highly unlikely that any of those numbers will be improved today and, with both hurlers getting pounded PLUS two weak bullpens PLUS two powerful lineups, this should be THE Slugfest Wednesday! Play OVER the total in Texas as a regular selection.

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