Wednesday Service Plays

Wednesday Service Plays

Scott Ferrall

BASEBALL LOCKS FOR WEDNESDAY
   
FAVORITES IN BOLD

Houston +150 at Milwaukee--Wandy Rodriguez over Parra

Philly -260 over the Nationals--I can't bet on the Nationals, even though they are facing Mayers

Pelfrey -160 and the Mets over the Braves and Jurrjens

Cubs -230 and Lilly over the Reds and Arroyo

Wellemeyer -210 and the Cards over the Pirates at Busch 2

Millwood and Texas -125 over the Tigers and Nate Robertson

Garza and the Rays -130 over the Angels at the Trop

Pettitte -145 and the Yanks in Toronto over the Jays

Baltimore +105 in an upset over the Red Sox--Buchholz struggles every time out these days


BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR WEDNESDAY
   
TEX-DET OVER 11.5

ANGELS-RAYS OVER 8.5

NY-TOR UNDER 9.5

BOS-BALT OVER 11

KC-CLEV OVER 9

SEATT-CHISOX OVER 10

OAK-MINN OVER 7.5

FLA-SF UNDER 7.5

COLO-LA DODG OVER 7

SD-ARIZ UNDER 7

PITT-CARDS OVER 9

ATL-NY METS UNDER 8.5

WASH-PHIL OVER 9

HOUS-MILW UNDER 9


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR WEDNESDAY
   
KC -110 with Gil Meche actually winning a game for once over the Tribe in Cleveland

White Sox -215 over Seattle and RA Dickey, who can't get anybody out and throws lots of wild pitches because he's a sloppy knuckleballer

Twins -260 over the A's at the Homerdone--Liriano over Braden

SF and Matt Cain -115 over Olsen and the Marlins in the Bay

Colorado +165 and Francis over Billingsley and the Dodgers at Chavez Revine

SD +145 and the Padres over Arizona as Jake Peavy comes through again and tops Dan Haren in a good one in the desert

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GATOR

70% Super Situation

Play Against MLB home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 in a game involving two teams with a win percentage between 38% to 46%, in August games 34-12 SU (73.9%) last five seasons.

PLAY: Kansas City -110


Top Angle

Buchholz (Boston) is 0-6 SU as a road favorite of -110 or more the last two seasons.

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Doc's Sports

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-Backs     
Play:San Diego Padres +1½

A match-up of aces takes place in the middle game of this series between the Padres and Diamondbacks. It is hard to imagine Jake Peavy this big of an underdog and thus we will side with the pointspread creating great value. Peavy has a better E.R.A. this Haren and has allowed just six runs in his last four starts. In three of them he has allowed just one earned run. He is coming off a victory against the Brewers and they are a much better line-up then what he will see from Arizona on Wednesday. Dan Haren will keep this score low put the Fathers take this one down to the wire and we collect with whomever comes out on top by a run. Doc’s Sports has a hot card going on Wednesday and would like you aboard for the winning ride.

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Nelly

New York – over Toronto

Toronto has not hit left-handed pitching well this season with a 13-19 record against southpaw starters and a .231 team batting average in home games. The Jays put together back-to-back successful series with wins against Detroit and Boston but the Yankees have had great success in this series. Andy Pettitte has been an excellent road pitcher this season with a 7-4 record and a solid ERA and he pitched well in a loss against Toronto earlier this season. David Purcey has been hit hard in short major league career with a 5.93 ERA and walks have been a big problem. A patient lineup like the Yankees can eat up pitchers with suspect control and Purcey has allowed 19 walks in just 30 innings. The Yankees struggled on the last road trip but the travel was extremely difficult going from Texas to Los Angeles to Minnesota. This will be a much easier trip and a familiar environment and the Yankees should dominate tonight.

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Jimmy The Moose

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

The Royals are 7-2 in their last games vs. a team with a losing record. Kansas City is 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 18 games overall vs. a lefty the Royals are a profitble 13-5. The Royals have won Meche's last 12 starts. KC is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Indians are 11-26 in their last 37 games vs. NL Central opponents. Cleveland is sending Zach Jackson to the mound and in his first start ge went 5 innings giving up 8 hites and 3 ER's. Look for the Royals to get to him tonight. Play on the Kansas City Royals -.

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Chris Jordan

Oakland at MINNESOTA

Francisco Liriano has been dynamite since returning to the rotation, and has been especially sharp this month. In facing three American League weaklings, the southpaw has given up just three earned runs over three starts, spanning 19 innings, versus the Mariners, Royals and Indians.

Now he gets a weary Athletics team that has been virtually terminal since the All-Star Break. Minnesota has won five of Liriano’s last six starts against losing teams, so we’ll lay the run line and cheap chalk that comes with it in this matinee blowout in the Homer Domer.

1♦ TWINS RUN LINE

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Ross Benjamin

Boston @ Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore +105

The Boston starter Buchholz has been a money burner in his starts on the road. Buchholz is 1-8 in his team starts on the road this season with a very lofty 8.18 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. Buchholz is 0-3 in his last 3-team starts with a terrible 8.22 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. The Orioles are 21-11 in night games at home this season versus a right-handed starting pitcher. The Orioles bats were red-hot until being cooled off last night by the Sox starter Matsuzaka. However in the previous 10 games they were hitting .332 as a team and scored 79 runs. Look for those bats to sizzle again versus a struggling starting pitcher. Play on the Baltimore Orioles.

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PlusLineSports

Oakland vs Minnesota

Minnesota -1.5

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Big Al

At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays 'under' the total. Two lefties will go to the mound in this Wednesday night divisional matchup. One is a well-known veteran in Andy Pettitte while the other is a virtual unknown in 26-year-old rookie David Purcey. Purcey really hasn't pitched that well for Toronto, but he saved his rotation spot with his last start, by far his best of the season (and of his short Major League career) as he threw six shutout innings while limiting a strong Detroit Tiger lineup to only two hits in Detroit. The Yankees have certainly had their share of problems this season, and one of the many issues has been their trouble hitting lefthanders. They are barely batting .260 against southpaws so far and that, combined with their many injuries is keeping them from contention as we head into the last month of the regular season. With last night's 2-1 pitchers' duel at Rogers Centre, five of the last six games played here between these two squads have gone a total of five runs or fewer. The under is also 14-3 in Toronto's last 17 home games and 15-5-1 in their last 21 overall as well as 11-3 in Pettitte's last 14 road starts. Pettitte has faced Toronto five times since coming back to New York at the beginning of 2007, and only one of those games has gone over five runs, and even that one last August, was only nine runs total. Take the 'under'.

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Jim Feist

COL Rockies and LA Dodgers
Take Over

Colorado is playing better, winning 9 of their last 13 road games. And they've been doing it with offense, scoring 24 runs in a 3-game sweep at Washington, a tough hitter's park. LA is 8-5 over the total the last 13 games, with a vastly improved offense with newcomers Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez. They will score off Colorado lefty Jeff Francis, who is 3-8 with a 5.74 ERA. His last 3 starts he has a 6.23 ERA. The Rockies' offense has lit up LA starter Chad Billingsley, who has an 0-2 record and a 6.46 ERA against Colorado. These teams are 5-3 over the total when they've met this season. Play the Rockies/Dodgers over the total.

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Dave Cokin

HOU Astros and MIL Brewers
Take MIL Brewers

The Brewers need to get right back on track after Tuesday's upset loss at the hands of the Astros. That shouldn't be a problem. Wandy Rodriguez continues to rack up high pitch counts early, and the Astros lefty can't get past the middle innings. It sure doesn't hurt that the Brewers can be pretty rude to visiting lefties, and I like Manny Parra to have a strong game here. I'll spot the odds with Milwaukee.

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

MLB EARLY RELEASE
LA DODGERS -184
MINNESOTA -1.5 -120 (play small)

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Nostradamus

Parlay (Milw/St Louis) 100/134
Baltimore +115
Texas -120
San Francisco -115

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Alex Smart

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Over 11.0

The Boston Red Sox starting pitcher today against the Baltimore Orioles ,Clay Bucholz (2-8, 6.35 ERA) will make his first start since August 10 . In his last outing the big Texan went just 3 innings , allowing 3 Hrs in an eventual 6-5 loss to the White Sox. This kid has been a real train wreck this season, and I don't think the extended rest will help him. In my humble opinion he should really be down in the minors honing his skills. The 24 year old right hander during a current nine game run ( eight starts) has garnered a 0-6 record along with a ugly looking 8.62 ERA. I think the BoSox coaching staff, has allowed him to go this far, because of the no hitter he pitched in his first major league start last season ,against todays opponent the Baltimore Orioles. That was than and this now, and considering his current form, Im expecting the Os explosive offense to unload on him in this spot, much like they did back on July 11, when they compiled 5 hits, four runs and five walks i n 5 innings for a 7-3 win. Meanwhile, the Orioles will return fire, with a struggling hurler of their own, southpaw Chris Waters (1-0, 4.32 ERA). The Florida native also started out with a great effort in his mlb debut, shutting out a potent Angels lineup, but since than has not faired so well, failing to get past the fifth inning in his last two starts. The 5th round pick has allowed 15 hits and eight runs in his last 8 2/3 innings of work, and here today against a Boston offense that has averaged 7.2 RPG in their L/10 games I expect his problems will continue.

I know the linesmakers have attached a fairly high number to this tilt, but rightly so, as two efficient offenses, tee off on two very hittable throwers and bullpens here in the launching pad known as Camden Canaveral. Look for an expect a big time slug fest here this evening.

Final notes & Key Trends; Bucholz owns a 8.18 ERA in 9 road outings this season. Over is 5-1 in Buchholzs last 6 road starts . Waters in his one home appearance has garnered a 13.50 ERA. Over is 44-18-4 in Orioles last 66 overall . Over is 10-1 in umpire Alfonso Marquezs last 11 apperances behind home plate. Play OVER

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SAPKOWSKI 

Best Bet
Minnesota over 3.5 in 1st 5IN

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DUNKEL

LA Angels at Tampa Bay   
The Rays look to build on their 6-2 record against the Angels this year behind starter Matt Garza, who has tossed shutouts in two of his last four starts.  Tampa Bay is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130).   Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20

Game 951-952: Houston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.519; Milwaukee (Parra) 16.599
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-165); Under

Game 953-954: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Balester) 12.439; Philadelphia (Myers) 14.699
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-245); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-245); Under

Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.209; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.031
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+150); Over

Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.211; Cubs (Lilly) 17.200
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-230); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-230); N/A

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Davis) 14.673; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 13.853
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+195); Under

Game 961-962: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 15.199; Arizona (Haren) 16.758
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Under

Game 963-964: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 16.490; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.133
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+175); Over

Game 965-966: Florida at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Olsen) 14.640; San Francisco (Cain) 15.038
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

Game 967-968: Oakland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.142; Minnesota (Liriano) 16.445
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-280); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-280); Over

Game 969-970: Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Dickey) 14.213; White Sox (Floyd) 16.498
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-210); Under

Game 971-972: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.571; Cleveland (Jackson) 14.377
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under

Game 973-974: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.456; Baltimore (Waters) 15.303
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over

Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.367; Toronto (Purcey) 15.470
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Under

Game 977-978: LA Angels at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.876; Tampa Bay (Garza) 17.344
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 979-980: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 14.416; Texas (Millwood) 14.914
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under

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SPORTS ADVISORS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (66-59) at Toronto (65-60)

Blue Jays rookie David Purcey (2-3, 5.93 ERA) makes his first career start against the storied Yankees and veteran Andy Pettitte (12-9, 4.30) when these A.L. East rivals clash in the middle game of their series at the Rogers Centre.

Toronto rallied for a 2-1 victory Tuesday, improving to 6-1 in its last seven games. The Jays are on hot streaks of 6-2 versus divisional foes and 6-2 against southpaw starters.

Since coming out of the All-Star break with eight straight wins, the Yankees have lost 14 of their last 22, going 3-9 on the road during this stretch. They’re also in slumps of 0-4 versus lefty starters, 0-6 on the road against southpaws and 0-4 with Pettitte on the hill.

The season series between these squads is now tied at 5, with the host winning seven of the 10 meetings.

Pettitte has a 7.40 ERA in his last four starts, all Yankees losses. That includes a 4-3 home defeat against Kansas City on Friday, when Pettitte got a no-decision after yeilding three runs on six hits and four walks. On the bright side, Pettitte has actually pitched better on the road this year (7-4, 3.87 ERA) than at home (5-5, 4.72).

The veteran southpaw is 16-10 with a 4.16 ERA in 34 career appearances (33 starts) against the Blue Jays, but he lost a 4-1 decision back on July 13 in Toronto, allowing all four runs on eight hits in six innings.

Purcey is coming off the best start of his brief career, holding the Tigers to two hits and three walks in six scoreless innings en route to a 4-3 victory. Purcey has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three outings at the Rogers Centre.

In this rivalry, the under is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-1 in Toronto and 5-0 when Pettitte faces the Blue Jays. The under is also 6-2 in New York’s last eight overall, 11-3 in Pettitte’s last 14 road starts, 16-5 in Pettitte’s last 21 versus the A.L. East, 16-4-1 in Toronto’s last 21 games overall and 14-3 in Toronto’s last 17 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER


L.A. Angels (76-48) at Tampa Bay (77-48)

The two best teams in the American League cap a three-game series at Tropicana Field, with the Rays gunning for the sweep as they go with Matt Garza (10-7, 3.63) opposite the Angels’ Jered Weaver (10-9, 4.48).

Tampa Bay held on for a 6-4 victory Monday night, then rallied for a 4-2 victory Tuesday, boosting their major-league-best home record to 47-17, including 43-10 in the last 53. The Rays, who are now tied with the Cubs for baseball’s best record, are on a 16-4 overall run (7-1 at home), and they’re now 6-2 against the Angels this year (5-0 at home). Tampa has also won six of its last seven against the A.L. West.

L.A. is fighting a rare slump, having lost five of its last six, including the last three in a row. Despite the downturn – which includes a 1-4 mark on this current road trip – the Angels remain baseball’s top road team with a 39-25 record. They’re also on streaks of, 21-8 versus the A.L. East, 20-9 against right-handed starters, 22-8 versus winning teams, 4-1 when Weaver goes up against the A.L. East and 10-5 following a defeat.

The home team has won seven of the eight clashes between these clubs this season and 10 of the last 11 going back to 2007.

Weaver has gone five straight games without a quality start, and his ERA during this stretch is 6.57, yet Los Angeles has won three of the five contests. However, the Halos are 5-8 in his 13 road starts, with Weaver going 5-5 with a 4.89 ERA.

Garza recorded his third complete game in his last 10 stats on Friday at Texas, yielding just two hits and two walks while striking out nine in a 7-0 victory. Garza has been solid at home this year, going 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA in 11 starts.

Weaver dominated the Rays at home on June 10, allowing a run on four hits in eight innings of 6-1 win. He also pitched in Tampa two years earlier, giving up two runs on four hits in six innings, winning 6-2. Meanwhile, Garza’s lone start against the Angels came last July when he was with the Twins, and the right-hander yielded four runs (three earned) on seven hits, losing 7-2 at home.

For the Angels, the over is on runs of 7-2 against right-handed starters, 4-2 against the A.L. East, 4-0 when Weaver faces the A.L. East and 5-2 for the Rays at home. However, the under is 8-2 in Garza’s last 10 home stats and 4-1 in his last five overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE:TAMPA BAY

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Jeff Scott Sports 

3 UNIT PLAY

MINNESOTA RL (-120) over Oakland

The A's horibble run continues as they are now 6-26 in their last 32 overall and just 3-17 in their last 20 on the road. In their last 26 losses overall the A's have been outscored by 3.9 rpg, while they have been out scored by 5.4 rpg in their last 9 losses on the road. The A's have also been a dog of +180 or higher 5 times in their last 17 games and have lost all 5 by 3 runs or more, while being outscored in the 5 games by an average of 7.4 rpg. The A's have really been struggling to put runs on the board, especially on the road, as they have averaged just 2.3 rpg in their last 20 away from home. I don't expect those bats to wake up today vs a very hot pitcher. Francisco Liriano has been superp, going 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his 3 starts since returning to the Bigs. The Twins have won those three starts by an average of 4.7 rpg, while they have won his home starts by an average of 2 rpg on the year.Liriano will also be looking for some payback as in his last start vs the A's he allowed 6 ER in 0.2 innings of work. The Oakland team at that time could hit, but this time around Francisco will feel like he's pitching vs a minor league team. The Twins are 25-7 in their last 32 games at home and have won by 2 or more runs in 21 of the 25 wins, plus they have outscored their opponents by 4.7 rpg in the 25 wins. The Twins are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record, while the A's are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 3-14 in their last 17 during game 3 of a series. No doubt that Minnesota will win this one and when they win at home it's usually by more than 1 run. This one should be easy. 

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Bobby Maxwell

San Diego +145 at ARIZONA 

This one could be quick as both teams have been known to struggle with their offense and both have dominating pitchers on the hill today. We're going to take our chances, grab the plus-money and play the Padres in this one.

Jake Peavy (9-8, 2,61 ERA) is on the mound for San Diego against Arizona's Danny Haren (13-6, 2.96). Peavy is just 1-2 in his last three starts but he's got a 2.25 ERA. He gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win over the Brewers on Thursday, and only once in his last 10 starts has he given up more than three runs in a start.

The Padres are 5-3 in his last eight starts against the D'Backs and on July 5 he went to Arizona and blanked the D'Backs on three hits for seven innings in a 4-2 victory. He's blanked the D'Backs in two of his last three outings in the desert.

Danny Haren is on the mound for Arizona and he's 2-1 in his last three starts but his ERA is 5.59 and the opposition has hit .360 against him in those three. Last time he pitched at home he allowed six runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Braves. In his last two home starts he's allowed 10 runs in 11.1 innings.

San Diego has won three of its last five in Arizona and we'll take the plus-money in this one. Play the Padres behind Peavy.

3♦ SAN DIEGO

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Bob Harvey

Minnesota Twins RL –120 over Oakland A’s.

The Twins were up to their usual tricks last night pounding out 13 runs and 16 hits in a rout of the A’s. Simply put, Oakland doesn’t have the pitching or the offense to keep up with Minnesota. Francisco Liriano, still recovering from arm surgery that cost him all of last season, gets the start for Minnesota. He’s been solid if not spectacular posting a 3-3 record with a 4.97 record. Liriano will face right-hander Dallas Braden who has a 3-2 record with an ERA of 4.50. Further supporting my play today: The Twins are an amazing 76-47 on the RL the season and have rewarded backers with +29.85 Units). Oakland has scored 28 runs over their last ten games somehow winning four of ten during that stretch. Compare that to Minnesota, which is 7-3 in its last ten outings scoring 58 runs during that stretch.

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