Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -182

I like the Cubs to really roll over St. Louis in this series after taking the wind out of the Cardinals' sails with an extra innings win Friday.  The Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 overall, 43-13 in their last 56 home games, and 9-0 in Zambrano's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  The Cubs are also 5-0 in Zambrano's last 5 home starts vs. the Cardinals and 10-1 in Zambrano's last 11 starts vs. the Cardinals period.  Pound the Cubs.


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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ben Burns

CIN (-135) vs HOU

The Reds have struggled of late and they lost a tough one in 10 innings yesterday. They've got Bronson Arroyo taking the mound at home today though, which has been a very profitable proposition the last couple of months.

These pitchers faced each other less than two weeks ago with Moehler outpitching Arroyo. That was at Houston though and Arroyo has really struggled on the road. Indeed, he's got a 7.47 ERA away from home. Note that the Reds are still 6-1 his last seven starts overall. This evening's game is at Cincinnati, where he's been much better, particularly recently. Arroyo returned home following the loss at Houston and promptly delivered a gem, allowing just four hits and one run through six innings. That 6-4 victory (vs. Milwaukee) brought the Reds to 4-0 his last four home starts, winning those games by a combined score of 23-10. Arroyo allowed three earned runs or less in each of those starts, giving up a total of just six runs through 28 innings. That's a 1.93 ERA! Looking back a bit further and we find that the Reds are an impressive 7-1 the last eight times that he started here. While he struggled vs. the Astros here back in the spring, Arroyo is pitching much better now and had previously allowed two earned runs or less in all three of his previous home starts against Houston, going seven complete innings in two of those games and six in the other.

As for Moehler, he followed up the win vs. Cincinnati by pitching well at Chicago, although he pitched only five innings, due to a rain delay. However, he doesn't have dominating 'stuff' and he had allowed 15 earned runs in just 21 1/3 innings in his previous four starts. That's a 6.33 ERA. In other words, the 7/29 game at Cincinnati notwithstanding, he hasn't pitched nearly as well as Arroyo in recent weeks. Moehler also got rocked the last time he pitched here at Cincinnati, giving up seven earned runs in five innings, en route to suffering a 9-1 loss. His previous start here also resulted in a loss, as he gave up four earned runs in five innings. Overall, he's 1-4 with a 5.86 ERA for his career vs. the Reds. While neither team will be making the playoffs, playing in front of the home fans, I expect the revenge-minded Reds to be the 'hungrier' (more motivated) team. Look for them to bounce back and continue their winning ways with Arroyo on the mound here at home. *NL Central GOY

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Winning Points

3* Wash -4
2* Miami -2
1* Jack -3.5
1* Dallas +3
1* StL/Tenn. over 33.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

BRANDON LANG

10 Dimes Jaguars
10 Dimes Bucs
10 Dimes Redskins

5 Dimes Rangers
5 Dimes Astros

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LT Profits

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Under 8.0

Francisco Liriano looked liked his old self upon returning from the minor for the Minnesota Twins, while Zack Greinke has been very solid for the Kansas City Royals, so look for a low scoring game tonight similar to the 4-1 Twins win here last night.

Liriano was obviously not ready to pitch at the major league level early in the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, but he closely resembled the rookie that dominated the league two years ago in his first start back. Liriano tossed six scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and recording five strikeouts. He threw 96 pitches and reported no discomfort afterwards, certainly a positive sign.

Meanwhile, Greinke has allowed two runs or less in four of his last six starts including the last two in a row. He has been great at home this season, going 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in nine home starts, including a Quality Start in his only other start vs. these Twins.

Finally, the Under is 36-17-2 in the last 55 head-to-head meetings, and we look for that pattern to continue given this matchup.

Pick: Twins, Royals Under 8


Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers Under 35.5

Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers have been notorious for giving their best players very limited action in the preseason, while the Dallas Cowboys have also shown little in exhibition road games in recent years, so look for a rather dull, low scoring game here.

In fact, Turner held out LaDainian Tomlinson entirely last preseason, and that may have been a contributing factor to his slow stat when the real games began in September. As a result of their conservatism with their stars, the Chargers have traditionally struggled to score points in Week 1, averaging just 12.8 points in their last five openers with their largest point output being 17 points.

As low as this seems, it looks like a downright explosion when compared to how the Cowboys have done in their last five openers! Dallas is averaging an anemic 9.40 points in preseason Week 1 since 2003 with the Under going a perfect 5-0, and even that low figure is skewed by a 23-point performance the only time they opened at home during this span. On the four occasions that Dallas has opened on the road in the last five year, they scored 0, 0, 11 and 13 points respectively.

Finally, the Under is 79-52, 60.3 percent in all NFL Week 1 preseason games with a posted total higher than 35 since 2000, including 1-0 this season.

Pick: Cowboys, Chargers Under 35.5

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Craig Trapp

Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Indianapolis Colts   

IND will play Sorgie much more than in the HOF game. They are much deeper at qb and rb which usually turns out to winning preseason games. CAR will play Delhomme but not much since he is coming off tommy john surgery. IND should even win this one. IND 24 CAR 19. 

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Lenny Del Genio

Game: Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Braves got us last night, but there is no way that one of MLB's worst road teams is taking a third straight game from the D'backs here in Arizona, particularly agianst Dan Haren, who is 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts. At home, he's 9-2 with an even better 2.49 ERA. We once again note that Atlanta has scored two runs or less 22 times this season on the road and is 0-22 in those games. They are also 1-12 on the road after a wion by 4+ runs, so history certainly is not on their side. Might be a fairly high price for some here on the home team, but definitely worth the investment. Take Arizona.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

MLB Road Warrior Super Play - 50-26 Run!

BOSTON (-126) over Chicago

This is an excellent spot for Boston and right hander Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Without question, "Dice" has been solid for the Red Sox all season long. With 106.2 innings in the bank, Matsuzaka has been scratched for only 36 earned runs and 81 hits. That translates into a beautiful 12-2 overall mark and a blistering 3.04 ERA. His efforts on the road have been phenomenal too. With 45.0 frames completed as a guest, Daisuke has been nipped for only 11 earned runs and 25 hits. That breaks down to a marvelous 5-0 record and a stellar 2.20 ERA!

Fresh off the disabled list with elbow tendinitis, the Pale Hose will counter with veteran Jose Contreras. Asking Contreras to step up against the BoSox fresh off the DL is going to be a tall order. Jose hasn't pitched well against Red Sox in his career anyway posting a soft 3-4 mark and a lofty 8.43 ERA in nine meetings. Before hitting the DL, Contreras struggled something fierce in his last three trips to the hill. Facing the Rangers, Royals and Indians, No. 52 was blasted for 15 earned runs and 26 hits in 15.2 innings of work. That adds up to a miserable 8.62 ERA!

As chalk, the Red Sox have been money with wins in 62 of their last 92 games. Also, matched up against the AL Central, Boston has nailed down 20 of their last 27. On the other side of the field, the Pale Hose have been at their worst priced as a short dog (+110 to +150) dropping 28 of their last 37.

Right now, Dice is a proven commodity and he'll be on his game. Contreras is still a question mark. Take Boston with listed pitcher Matsuzaka. 


4* MLB Grand Slam Blowout - 50-26 Run!

TEXAS (+106) over Baltimore

Off last night's 9-1 pounding at Baltimore, look for Texas and its high-octane offense to bounce back nicely matched up against O's hurler Daniel Cabrera.

In his last four starts against Seattle, New York, Toronto and Detroit, Cabrera has been clocked for 22 earned runs and 31 hits in only 23.0 innings of work. That adds up to a lofty 8.61 ERA! To make matters worse, "Danny Boy" has faced the Rangers three times and struggled something fierce posting a dismal 0-3 record and a ridiculous 7.63 ERA! With No. 40 on the bump, Baltimore has dropped 10 of its last 14 games.

Texas will counter with right hander Vicente Padilla. In his last four starts against the Yankees, Mariners A's and Twins - ALL Rangers wins I might add, Padilla has pitched pretty well. With 26.0 innings in the bank, Padilla was touched for only 12 earned runs and 28 hits. That adds up to a respectable 4.15 ERA. On foreign soil, Vicente has been at his best too. With 75.1 road innings on the books, No. 44 has been nicked for only 41 earned runs and 84 hits. That breaks down to a noteworthy 9-2 overall record and a decent 4.90 ERA!

On a technical note, the Rangers have tasted victory in 23 of their last 32 games coming off a straight up loss and stand a blistering 20-6 in Padilla's last 26 starts. Meanwhile, the Orioles have dropped 12 of their last 17 coming off a straight up victory. Take Texas with listed pitcher Padilla.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Erin Rynning

Playmaker San Diego / Colorado Under 9.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Texas Sports Syndicate

Jags
Bucs
Titans
Texans
Chargers

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Lenny Del Genio

20* NL Dog of the Month

Houston

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KingMaker

Rare 3-UNIT Monster

Marlins

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The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections  

92% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL WINNER
Arizona w/Haren -162 

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Alex Smart

2* Yankees/Angels Under 9.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Steve Merril

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies

Greg Maddux is one of the best pitchers in the history of the game, but he is now past his prime at 42 years old and the only reason his seasonal numbers are decent is because he pitches half of his games in San Diego's extremely pitcher friendly Petco Park. The true sign of a pitcher's ability is his performance on the road and this is where Maddux has struggled this season with a weak 6.02 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 11 starts. Look for another poor road outing tonight as Maddux is likely to struggle in the thin air and altitude of Coor's Field.

Meanwhile, my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid bounce-back effort from Colorado's Aaron Cook who is coming off a rare bad performance last Monday when he allowed 7 runs and lost outright as a -230 favorite versus the Nationals. Cook should respond with a strong showing tonight as he still has a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 24 starts this season. Cook has also dominated the Padres with an amazing 1.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 career starts.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Scott Spreitzer

25* MLB TOTAL DOMINATOR! *15-5, 75% Run!

Texas has had a scoring problem over their last couple of games, but that came as no surprise facing a couple of red-hot hurlers in Mike Mussina, and last night against Jeremy Guthrie. But even with their last three results, the Rangers remain the highest scoring team in the Majors. Tonight, they'll face just the pitcher to get back on track. Baltimore will send Daniel Cabrera to the bump at Camden. He's been popped for a 5.23 ERA in five home night starts this season, and a 5.89 home ERA in nine starts overall. Cabrera has been a punching bag in his last four starts, allowing 22 earned runs and 42 base runners in 23 inninngs, for an 8.61 ERA & 1.83 WHIP. Cabrera has had a very rough time throughout his career against the Rangers, (6.32 ERA in eight starts), especially at home where he's been smacked for 13 earned runs and 31 base runners in 15 innings of action...a 7.80 ERA & 2.07 WHIP. Now, he has to face his nemesis, who plates 6.2 runs per game in road night tilts against righthanders. But I also expect Baltimore to score plenty of runs. The O's average about 5 1/2 runs per game in home night outings against righties. Meanwhile, Padilla has been pounded in his five starts at Camden. The Ranger righty has allowed 23 earned runs and 50 base runners in 24 1/3 IP. That's a huge, 8.51 ERA & 2.05 WHIP, to go along with a .367 BAA! In case we needed any more convincing, Padilla has been rocked for a 7.00 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last six starts, getting tagged for 27 earned runs in just 34 2/3 innings. So, we have a pair of starters who are in their worst spots, against a pair of lineups that slam opposing hurlers in this situation. Looks like a recipe for a high scoring contest. My 25* play is the Over between the Rangers & Orioles on Saturday.

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Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections 

TOP RATED LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE DAY
Florida w/Olson +100 

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

LA Angels/ NY Yanks Over 9.5

The Over is 11-3 in Yankees last 14 overall and  20-9-2 in Yankees last 31 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, while the Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 overall and 5-1 in Lackeys last 6 starts overall, plus the Over is 7-0 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. The last 7 games in LA between these two teams has averaged 16.3 rpg, while the last 11 in the series overall has averaged 14.1 rpg. Dan Giese has made 2 starts for the Yanks thus far and he has a 5.06 ERA in those two starts, while those games have averaged 13.5 rpg. John Lackey has had an overall good year for the Halos, but he is beginnig to tire a bit, as he owns a 6.05 ERA in his last 6 starts, with those starts averaging a whopping 17.2 rpg. John's home starts have averaged 10.9 rpg, while his day starts have averaged 13.8 rpg, plus his lone start vs the Yanks this year produced 23 runs. The Yanks come in hitting .293 and scoring 6.5 rpg in their last 10 games, with those 10 games averaging 12.2 rpg. On the flipside, the Halos come in hitting .286 and scoring 6.4 rpg in their last 10 games, with those games averaging 11.3 rpg. This series has been really high scoring and with a couple of struggling pitchers going up against a couple of hot offense, I don't see how this game can stay in single digits.


1 UNIT PLAYS

Cleveland/ Toronto Under 7.5

The Under is 15-5-1 in Indians last 21 on field turf and 22-8-2 in Indians last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, while the Under is 8-1 in Blue Jays last 9 on field turf and  23-6-2 in Blue Jays last 31 vs. American League Central, plus the Under is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings in Toronto. Paul Bryd has been pitching very well of late, as he comes in with an 0.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. Paul has faced the Jays 6 times in his career and he owns a 3.04 ERA vs them, while allowing 1 ER or less in 4 of those starts. Pauls last 3 starts have averaged just 6 rpg, while his 6 starts vs the Jays have averaged just 5.8 rpg. The Jays offense has been better of late scoring 5.1 rpg in their last 8 overall, but they do put up just 4.4 rpg at home, including just 3.2 rpg in their last 9 at home. The Jays home games do score 8 rpg on the year, but their last 12 at home have averaged just 6.7 rpg, with on 1 of their last 9 home games going over today's total. Cleveland hits just .244 and scores 4.4 rpg on the road, plus they hit just .244 and score 4 rpg in day games, with the Under going 21-12 in their day games this year. 4 Runs might be hared to come by for the Tribe today as they take on one of the best pitchers in the league. Roy Halladay has a very nice 2.77 ERA on the year, including a 2.00 ERA in his last 7 starts, plus he owns a 2.90 ERA at home, including a 1.44 ERA in his last 3 home starts, with those last 3 home starts averaging just 5 rpg. Roy does have a career 4.04 ERA vs the Tribe, but in his last 7 vs them he has a 2.66 ERA. This is a great pitching matchup and with two mediocre offenses facing them I just don't see many runs being scored in this one.

CHICAGO RL over St Louis

The Cubs outscore opponents by 2.1 rpg at home and 2.8 rpg in Carlos' home starts. Chicago has also outscored opponents by 3.4 rpg in their last 11 games and 4.4 rpg in their last 9 wins overall. Carlos is 9-4 with a 2.27 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Cards and has not allowed more that 2 ER in any of his last 10 starts vs them. The Cards last 7 road losses have been by an average of 4.2 rpg. Yes Wellemyer has pitched better of late, but he does own a 4.50 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Cubs and I see them getting to him here on their way to an easy win.


2 UNIT PLAY

Buffalo +4 over WASHINGTON

Dick Juaron is 4-1 ATS vs the NFC in preseason games and the Bills are 5-0 ATS in week 1 games and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 presaon games as a dog. The Bills don't have a good QB rotation, but you have to feel that Losman will be looking to put on a good show and try and win back his starting spot. The Skins played well in their opener vs the Colts, but you have to feel that the revamped Bills defense will look to make a good showing after struggling much of last year. The Skins have the edge behind center, but they are playing on only 6 days rest and should have problems being reasy for this one. I say the Bills take it outright.

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Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections

TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Colorado w/Cook -174

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

ATS

Washington (-3 1/2) over Buffalo
Houston (-2 1/2) over Denver
Dallas (+3) over San Diego

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