Saturday Service Plays

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LT Profits

Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers Under 35.5

Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers have been notorious for giving their best players very limited action in the preseason, while the Dallas Cowboys have also shown little in exhibition road games in recent years, so look for a rather dull, low scoring game here.

In fact, Turner held out LaDainian Tomlinson entirely last preseason, and that may have been a contributing factor to his slow stat when the real games began in September. As a result of their conservatism with their stars, the Chargers have traditionally struggled to score points in Week 1, averaging just 12.8 points in their last five openers with their largest point output being 17 points.

As low as this seems, it looks like a downright explosion when compared to how the Cowboys have done in their last five openers! Dallas is averaging an anemic 9.40 points in preseason Week 1 since 2003 with the Under going a perfect 5-0, and even that low figure is skewed by a 23-point performance the only time they opened at home during this span. On the four occasions that Dallas has opened on the road in the last five year, they scored 0, 0, 11 and 13 points respectively.

Finally, the Under is 79-52, 60.3 percent in all NFL Week 1 preseason games with a posted total higher than 35 since 2000, including 1-0 this season.

Pick: Cowboys, Chargers Under 35.5

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John Ryan

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants     
Play: San Francisco Giants   

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on SF (9:05)– Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 84-48 making 56 units since 2002. Play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. This system has gone an amazing 20-4 making 19.2 units this season. The average play since 2002 has been a nice +123.8 which also matches the line for this game. Take the Giants.

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Brian Hansen

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Over

Both of these pitchers have struggled in their careers against today's opponent and I look for more of the same in this game. Vicente Padilla gave up four earned runs with a 1.50 WHIP in his last outing and hasn't been as sharp as he was to open the year. Padilla struggled in his only start versus the Orioles this season as he took the loss and compiled an ERA of 27.00 in that game. Padilla hasn't fared well in his career versus Baltimore either going just 2-4 with a 7.86 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP in five career starts. Daniel Cabrera toes the rubber today for the Orioles. Cabrera hasn't started against the Rangers this year but has struggled mightily in his career versus them. Cabrera is 1-6 with a 6.33 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in eight careers starts versus Texas. Look for both teams to put up runs early as this one sails over the total. Play on OVER!

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Big Al Mcmordie

St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

At 3:55pm our member selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. 27-year-old Carlos Zambrano gave the Cubs quite a scare in the month of June when he went 1-2 in four starts, giving up 16 earned runs in just over 25 innings before finally landing on the DL with a strained shoulder injury on June 21. Fortunately, the Cubs have been able to breathe a sigh of relief as Zambrano has looked like his old self since coming back from the DL on Independence day. The Chicago ace has gone 4-1 in his six starts since coming off the shelf and has lowered his ERA back down to 2.76 in the process. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been monitoring his innings and pitches, taking care not to overuse Zambrano and risk another trip to the DL during this critical time of the season. You'd have to search a long time to find a pitcher who has been more dominant against one team in the last five years than Zambrano has been against division rival St.Louis. With his shutout victory against the Cards in his only start against them this season, the 6'5" Venezuelan is now 8-0 in his last eleven starts against St. Louis dating back to the beginning of the 2005 season. But Zambrano isn't the only Cub who has made a successful return from the DL recently. Outfielder Alfonso Soriano has been absolutely en fuego since returning from injury on July 23. During an 11-game stretch beginning on July 27, Soriano had 20 hits, six homers, and fourteen RBI in only 48 at bats. It doesn't get much hotter than that. Take the Cubs.

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Sean Higgs

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Over   

Brett Meyers is good to give up 5 runs to a team in the Little League World Series. The potent Philly offense laid an egg last night. Snell has gone over 6 of 7 on the road, and 4 of his last 5 overall. These teams have gone over in 5 of their last 7.

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JB's COMPUTER PICKS

Los Angeles Angels -165

Milwaukee Brewers -250 * * *

Colorado Rockies -180


BEST BET ***

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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) COMP

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS  vs MIAMI DOLPHINS

PLAY: MIAMI DOLPHINS -2

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ROSS BENJAMIN

Indianapolis @ Carolina
Play: Indianapolis +4.0

Any preseason game away underdog playing their 2nd game, is coming off a SU and ATS loss, and is playing an opponent playing in their 1st preseason game is 10-0-1 ATS since 1990. The underdog has won 10 of those 11 games outright. Play on Indianapolis plus the points

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Bobby Maxwell

Denver at HOUSTON -2½

The Texans broke even last season and coach Gary Kubiak has stressed looking good in preseason can carry over to the regular season. Houston is 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS at home in Kubiak's two preseasons and look for them to come out and deliver a 10-point win over the Broncos tonight.

Denver looked like a bad team last season, going 7-9. Normally Mike Shanahan's team is a good bet in the preseason, but it also comes down to talent and frankly the Broncos don't have a lot of it.

For the Broncos, Jay Cutler starts, followed by Patrick Ramsey and Darrell Hackney. The jury is still out on Cutler but nonetheless he won't see much playing time tonight, going just a couple series.

We like the Texans QB rotation tonight with Matt Schaub getting the start and playing the first quarter, followed by one of the best backups in the NFL in Sage Rosenfels. After that expect to see Shane Boyd and possibly rookie Alex Brink.

But two QBs playing like Schaub and Rosenfels makes us confident the Texans will put up some points in the first half. Then its just a battle of players who are non-factors in the second half for both teams. Let's go ahead and lay the chalk with the Texans tonight.

3&#9830; HOUSTON

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Jeff Benton

Two nights ago, I gave out the Ravens plus the points at New England (Baltimore won outright), and one of the main reasons was because the Ravens were playing their first game under new coach John Harbaugh. I mentioned that, while these games are meaningless from a won-loss perspective, they're not entirely meaningless for teams coming off disappointing seasons and playing for a new coach. Players want to impress their new boss, and the new boss wants to instill a winning culture, so there's a built-in advantage to back teams in Week 1 of the preseason especially when facing an opponent that has nothing to prove.

Well, New England had nothing to prove, obviously. Nor did the Colts, who got rotted by Jim Zorn's Redskins in the Hall of Fame Game in Week 1. And nor do the Buccaneers, who are coming off a division title and now in their seventh preseason with coach John Gruden. So to me, this game means much more from a psychological perspective to the Dolphins and first-year coach Tony Sparano than it does to Tampa. And even though Miami's three quarterbacks vying for the No. 1 job Josh McCown, John Beck and Chad Henne have had shaky preseasons, I have to believe Sparano will simply the game plan to give each passer the best chance to succeed.

One final thing: With Baltimore's win in New England the other night, teams with brand-new coaches are now 7-2 in Week 1 of the preseason dating to the start of last year's exhibition campaign. Make it 8-2 after this one, as Miami wins and covers this short number.

3&#9830; MIAMI DOLPHINS

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Tony Weston

Tonight, go with the Dallas Cowboys over the San Diego Chargers.

Consider first that the Chargers, like has become tradition, will be without star running back LaDainian Tomlinson for this preseason game and will also be without Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates. That puts the offensive burden on Philip Rivers, who is coming back from offseason knee surgery. Also consider that San Diego has only been a .500 team in the preseason over the last five seasons, having gone 8-8 ATS under Marty Schottenheimer and 2-2 ATS in Norv Turner's first season with the team last year.

Also consider that the Dallas Cowboys come into this game with a strong preseason record over the last few years. Going back to 2002, Dallas is 16-8 ATS and is 5-2 ATS as an underdog. They're installed right now as about a 3-point dog.

Take the points and go with the Cowboys on the road tonight.

3&#9830; COWBOYS

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Saturday let's go to the gridiron and back the Redskins at home.

As I often say and will repeat here, this is far from the lock of my life but all signs seem to be pointing towards the 'Skins and at what is a fairly cheap price I'll take my chances on Joe Gibbs' former team.

Jim Zorn has already gotten his feet weet with that Hall of Fame game win and cover over the Colts a few days back and the Washington players should be fine as well after 60 minutes of action against Indianapolis.

The Bills are not a bad team at all and should be somewhere at that 8-8 mark this season but Buffalo's talent level has not been and is still not exactly overwhelming and if not for the solid home field advantage which Rich Stadium provides in the cold and blustery winter this team might prove to be more of a six or seven win club.

The number opened up closer to a touchdown at about 5 1/2 and has now come down a few points closer to a field goal. I'll never complain about free points and line movement in my favor, even in a meaningless preseason contest.

Washington goes three deep at Quarterback as we learned the other day thanks to the semi emergence of former Hawaii star Colt Brennan as he shredded the Colts. Add in Jason Campbell and Todd Collins and the home 'Skins are just fine at the signal caller position. Also it can't hurt that stud running back Clinton Portis should see some action as should Jason Taylor.

I do not love laying points in preseason action but everything and I mean everything is going our way and in the end I would be surprised to see Washington not win this game so I'll munch on a little chalk here.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Florida at NY Mets   
The Marlins look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and build on their 17-9 road record when the total is listed from 9 to 9 1/2.  Florida is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored straight up by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Florida (+110).  Here are all of today's games.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 9

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.394; Arizona (Haren) 15.279
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Over

Game 903-904: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.320; Cubs (Zambrano) 16.522
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-190); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-190); N/A

Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 16.037; Philadelphia (Myers) 14.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+180); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Redding) 14.993; Milwaukee (Sheets) 16.220
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-240); Over

Game 909-910: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Olsen) 16.177; NY Mets (Stokes) 14.960
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+110); Under

Game 911-912: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 13.931; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 13.986
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-135); Over

Game 913-914: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Maddux) 14.049; Colorado (Cook) 14.885
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-170); Under

Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.856; San Francisco (Correia) 15.017
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Over

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Byrd) 14.599; Toronto (Halladay) 15.562
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-215); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-215); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Giese) 15.905; LA Angels (Lackey) 16.750
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.189; White Sox (Contreras) 15.853
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over

Game 923-924: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Meyer) 13.447; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.443
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 15.855; Baltimore (Cabrera) 14.937
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105); Under

Game 927-928: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.317; Kansas City (Greinke) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Over

Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.247; Seattle (Rowland) 16.595
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Under

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LAS VEGAS SPORTS ADVISORS

Minnesota/Francisco Liriano -130
Play of the Day

LA Angels/John Lackey -165

Milwaukee/Ben Sheets -1.5 -125

Milwaukee/Ben Sheets -250

Boston/Daisuke Matsuzaka -135

Toronto/Roy Halladay -230
FREE PICK

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jim Feist

CLE Indians and TOR Blue Jays
Take Under

Both offenses have disappointed all season, hurt by injuries and several players having bad years. The Indians started 4-0 under the total on this current road trip. It doesn't get any easier here against Toronto ace Roy Halladay, who is having another great season. And what a roll he's on -- a 1.96 ERA his last three starts. At least Cleveland righty Paul Byrd has finally found his stuff, at 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA his last three starts. Don't look for any runs this game, play the Indians/Blue Jays under the total!

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Dave Cokin

DEN Broncos and HOU Texans
Take HOU Texans

It's been a rough camp so far for the Broncos. This team has some definite concerns at the skill positions heading into the season, and it looks to me like Mike Shanahan will need a couple of these pre-season contests to do some player evaluation more than anything else. I have to believe the Texans are ahead of Denver right now in terms of readiness, and I'll therefore look for the Houston side to emerge with the win and cover this evening.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

KING CREOLE

I came across this WEEK ONE tendency in the NFL pre-season while skimming through some of the online forums. It is not something that I researched myself. But it IS worth noting. And since we ALL have the common goal of 'taking down the MAN', the more information that we can share with each other.... the better (or BETTOR!) it is for all of us.

In week one of the NFL "X" season, play ON any team that missed the Playoffs last year.... when they are taking on a team that WON at least one Playoff game last year. If you had played this situation each of the last two seasons, you would have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS.

Now, this shouldn't be your only reason to play ON these non-playoff teams. You must also factor in previous pre-season Systems, Trends, and Tendencies. And a sharp player will also address the Head Coach... the projected quarterback rotations... and the relative youth or experience of the two teams that are playing each other. At the very least, this Systems will PREVENT me from playing ON the Giants, Seahawks, Jaguars, Packers, and Patriots in GAME ONE.

So we'll take a possible look at the following "Play ON" teams in week one:

DETROIT LIONS over the ny giants
BALTIMORE RAVENS over the new england patriots
MINNESOTA VIKINGS over the seattle seahawks
CINCINNATI BENGALS over the green bay packers
ATLANTA FALCONS over the jacksonville jaguars

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Will Cover
         
CAROLINA minus vs the Colts

Classic pre-season coaching mis-match in this contest from Charlotte. One coach cares about the outcome of pre-season games whereas the other couldn't care less. John Fox of the Panthers is a very solid 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS versus Tony Dungy who is just 21-30 SU and <.500 ATS in his NFL career during the pre-season. No Manning once again for the Colts who are a bit banged-up off their HOF Game loss to the Redskins last Sunday. Play on CAROLINA!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Texas -105 at BALTIMORE 

Rangers get just what the doctor ordered to get their suddenly slumping offense going, as they match up against Daniel Cabrera and the Orioles Saturday night.

Texas has lost 3 straight, and uncharacteristically its been the offense that's to blame. Look for things to turn around quickly, as the Rangers pound Cabrera, just like they have all 3 times they've faced him, going 0-3 with a 7.63 ERA in those starts! In fact, Cabrera has gotten crushed over his last two home starts, allowing 13 runs on 16 hits over 10 innings, walking 7 in the process, against the Tigers and Jays respectively!

Now, I'll freely admit the Rangers Vincent Padilla got lit up by this Orioles club the last time he faced them, and is just 1-4 with 8.51 ERA in 5 career starts against them. However, before you go jumping ship, remember two things: A. The Rangers are 13-3 in Padilla's last 16 road starts! And B. You know damn well he'll be looking to redeem himself tonight, which is more than Cabrera can say after getting rocked in 3 of his last 4 starts!

Finally, we'll look at the offenses, which both excel against rigthies, but there's no question you give the edge to the high-powered Rangers offense, averaging 5.8 runs per game against righties away. Not only that, but they get Ian Kinsler back after a day-off tonight, and hopefully the time off will get him going again. In the end, the Rangers are looking to snap out of their funk, and a match up against the struggling Daniel Cabera couldn't have come at a better time!

Take Texas behind Padilla over Baltimore and Cabrera in this MLB match up.

3&#9830; TEXAS

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Lenny Del Genio

20* NL Dog of the Month **78% GOM Run**

The Astros simply have the Reds number. That was evident following last night's 9-5 victory in 10 innings. Houston is now 6-1 vs. their division rivals this year and even more impressive is how they dominate them in Cincinnati, having taken 14 of 19, including all four meetings this year. Now we have the number we want as the Astros are still somehow the underdog here despite what we just mentioned. Cincy is mired in a horrible slump right now as heading into this series they were barely scoring over three runs per game over the previous week or so while starters had a collective ERA of over 8.00. With the two losses to start this series, the Reds have now dropped 12 of their last 14 overall. Houston, meanwhile, has won 9 of 12. We like their chances again tonight behind Brian Moehler, the only pitcher to beat the Cubs in the previous series and he did it against Ryan Dempster no less. Moehler has been more than decent in his 15 starts this season, racking up a 3.98 ERA, and the start against the Cubs saw him throw five shutout innings. He used to struggle against the Reds, but that was years ago. In his lone start against them this year, he was just one out short of a compelete game 6-2 win. Expect a strong performance tonight, as he is 12-0 Under in nighttime starts. Cincinnati has lost nine straight vs. right-handed starters, having been outscored 64-24 in those games. Ouch! The Reds staff ranks next to last in the NL in ERA (5.36) and tonight's starter Bronson Arroyo will have to contend with the hot-hitting Carlos Lee (.390, 13 HR and 47 RBI since 6/20). Arroyo has already been shelled by Houston twice this year and has a team start record of 10-18 vs. sub-.500 competition. Houston is our 20* NL Underdog of the Month.

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