MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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EZWINNERS

1 STAR: (952) CINCINNATI (+$111) over Milwaukee
(Listing Arroyo and Parra) (Risking $100 to win $111)

1 STAR: (966) TEXAS (+$144) over NY Yankees
(Listing Padilla only) (Risking $100 to win $144)

1 STAR: (955) WASHINGTON (+$190) over Colorado
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $190)

1 STAR: (957) PITTSBURGH (+$245) over Arizona
(Aciton) (Risking $100 to win $245)

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -112

The Braves have struggled on the road all season and I look for things to get even worse after dealing away one of their best hitters before the trade deadline.  The Braves are just 2-7 in their last 9 overall, 9-23 in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a losing record, and 18-37 in their last 55 road games.  The Giants are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home favorite, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite, and an impressive 7-3 in their last 10 vs. the National League East.  It's very difficult to make the coast to coast trip and perform well in game one.  We'll take the Giants at home here.

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Houston (53-57) at Chicago Cubs (67-45)

Two teams playing some outstanding baseball of late square off at Wrigley Field in Chicago when the Astros send Brian Moehler (6-4, 4.23 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (12-4, 2.90).

Houston has won six of its last seven and just swept the Mets in a three-game weekend set in Houston, capped off by Sunday’s 4-0 victory. The Astros have fared well against the Cubs lately, winning four of the last five, and they lead the season series 5-4. However, Chicago has won eight of the last 10 meetings in the Windy City.

Chicago has won seven of its last eight games and beat the Pirates 8-5 on Sunday to improve to 41-15 at Wrigley Field this season. The Cubs are 53-24 in their last 77 games as a favorite and 21-7 in their last 28 at home against right-handed starters.

The Astros have won five of Moehler’s last seven starts, including Tuesday when he went 8 2/3 innings against the Reds, allowing two runs on seven hits in a 6-2 victory. He beat the Cubs back on July 18 when he held them to one run on four hits over seven innings of a 2-1 win. Moehler is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in eight career appearances against Chicago.

Dempster has been nearly unbeatable at Wrigley, going 10-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts this season. In his last three outings overall, he’s given up just two runs in 21 innings, including eight innings of shutout work against Houston on July 20 in a 9-0 victory. In his career, Dempster is 4-8 with a 4.58 ERA in 39 appearances against the Astros.

The are 16-7 in Dempster’s last 23 starts overall and 8-2 in his last 10 versus N.L. Central rivals.

The under is 13-3-1 in Moehler’s last 17 starts and 5-0-1 in his last six on the road. The under is also on streaks of 7-1 with Dempster pitching at Wrigley and 8-3 when he takes the hill as a favorite. As a team, the Astros have stayed under the total in 25 of their last 37 games as a road ‘dog. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 36-15-1 in the last 52 clashes overall and 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.

ATS ADVANTAGE:CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (61-50) at Texas (58-54)

The Yankees go for their third straight win when they send young phenom Joba Chamberlain (4-3, 2.24) to the hill to take on the Rangers’ Vicente Padilla (12-5, 4.52) at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

New York used a six-run eighth inning to beat the Angels 14-9 on Sunday and split a four-game set against the team with baseball’s best record, however the Yankees went just 3-4 on its homestand. The Yankees have dominated the Rangers the last two-plus seasons, going 21-6 overall, and they are 29-10 in their last 39 in Texas.

Texas beat the Blue Jays 8-4 on Sunday. The Rangers hit .303 at home, and they are 14-6 in their last 20 in front of the home fans against right-handed starters.

Chamberlain has been magnificent lately, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts, giving up just two earned runs in his last 19 innings. The Yankees are 8-2 in his last 10 starts and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those 10 outings. Back on July 1, Chamberlain gave up two runs on five hits in four innings of a 3-2 loss to the Rangers.

The Rangers have won Padilla’s last three starts and the offense usually gives him plenty of support, averaging 6.8 runs a game when he toes the rubber. He hasn’t seen the Yankees in two years, but in two career starts he has allowed six earned runs in 10 1/3 innings and split the two games.

New York is 14-3 in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record, 16-5 in its last 21 when facing a squad from the A.L. West and 7-1 in Chamberlain’s last eight outings as a favorite. Meanwhile, Texas is 23-8 in Padilla’s last 31 starts overall and 9-3 in his last 12 at home.

The under is 4-1-1 in Chamberlain’s last six starts and 5-2-1 in the last eight head-to-head matchups between these squads. However, the over is 8-1 in the Yankees’ last nine overall and 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters. The over is 8-3 in Padilla’s last 11 starts, 9-2-1 in the Rangers last 12 overall and 22-10-1 in their last 33 series openers.

ATS ADVANTAGE:N.Y. YANKEES

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ANTHONY CAPONE

OAKLAND A's  vs TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Play: TORONTO BLUEJAYS -1.5

Lets lay the 1.5 runs today with the Jays over a terrible A's team lately losing their last 9 of 10 with no hope in sight .Gallagher has dropped his last 2 decisions losing (4-3) to the Royals recently and dropping the previous start to the Rangers (14-6) . Roy Halladay goes for the Jays today and should have no problem shutting down this punch less offense .Lets lay the runs with the Jays today .

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CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS COMP

NY YANKEES  vs TEXAS RANGERS
Play:YANKEES / RANGERS OVER 9.5

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BEN BURNS

Twins (RL) @ Mariners (RL)
PICK: Mariners (RL)

The betting public will surely love the Twins in this matchup. I believe the Mariners offer solid value though, particularly when we can get quite a reasonable price on them at +1.5 runs. The Mariners got back on track yesterday with a convincing 8-4 victory. While hitting has been a problem for them most of the year, that hasn't been in recent weeks. In fact, yesterday's game marked the eighth time in their last nine games that they recorded double-digits in hits.

Batista gets the call for the Mariners and his numbers this season are admittedly pretty poor. However, a closer look shows that he's actually been pretty decent his last two trips to the mound, allowing two runs in six innings vs. Texas last time out and two runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. Toronto in his previous start. While the Mariners lost both those games, it's important to mention that both losses came by just a single run - a big part of the reason that the run-line is an attractive option here. Batista did get roughed up at the dome in Minnesota last season. However, he allowed two earned runs or less in all three of his previous career starts vs. the Twins (1.89 ERA in those three games!) and his teams (Toronto and Arizona) won two of those three contests.

Perkins gets the nod for the Twins and he hasn't been particularly special lately. Last time out, he allowed nine baserunners (7 hits and 2 walks) and four earned runs through six innings. The Twins won that game. However, again getting back to the point about value with the run-line, that victory came by just one run, as the Twins won 6-5. Prior to that, in his most recent road start, Perkins allowed eight hits and five runs through six innings, suffering a 5-1 loss. Note that the Twins have only won one of his last six starts by more than a run and that four of his last six starts were decided by just a single run.

The Mariners should have the advantage in the bullpen department, something many people often overlook. The Twins' relievers have been tough at home. However, they have an awful 6.08 ERA and 1.609 WHIP on the road. On the other hand, the Mariners' relievers have an excellent 2.89 ERA and 1.243 WHIP. The Mariners also have the "travel schedule" in their favor as they played here at Safeco yesterday, while the Twins had to make the 1500 mile trek from Minneapolis to the Pacific Northwest. Consider backing SEATTLE at +1.5 runs.

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SportsKingz

MINNESOTA -130

MILWAUKEE -115

ANGELS R/L EV

COLORADO R/L -110

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Matty O'Shea

CHC / HOU Under 10

The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Cubs and Astros, with more than nine runs scored just once in those games. The UNDER is also 13-3-1 in Houston starter Brian Moehler's last 17 starts on grass and 7-1 in Chicago starter Ryan Dempster's last eight starts at home. Both of these pitchers combined to give up just one run in a combined 15 innings between them in their last meetings, and I expect more of the same tonight. Bet the UNDER as my Double Dime NL Total Play O' the Week.

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Charlies Sports

500*Pirates/Diamondbacks Under 8
30* Giants -125
20* Royals -105
20* Rays -130
10* Yankees -140
10* Mariners +105 (free play)

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Michael Cannon

Milwaukee -120 at CINCINNATI 

Take the Brewers for the road win over the Reds tonight.

Manny Parra will get the start and he’s had a fine season so far for the Brew Crew.  The left-hander is 9-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 22 starts.  He’s only 1-2 in his last three starts, but he should be able to get back on track facing the Reds tonight.

Bronson Arroyo will start for Cincinnati and he’s 9-8 on the year despite an unsightly 5.74 ERA.

The Brewers need to bounce back and need to do it quick if they want to stay within sight of the Cubs in the NL Central.

Take the Brewers as they grab the road win.

3♦ MILWAUKEE

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

MLB EARLY RELEASE
CLEVELAND +120

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Wunderdog

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Pick: Cleveland +115

Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.

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Tom Stryker

National League Super Play

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -120

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Steven Budin

MONDAY'S PICK

25 DIME - KANSAS CITY ROYALS

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit Play on Cincinnati Reds +119

The Brewers have lost 6 of their last 8 games and it will be no picnic in Cincy tonight against the red hot Arroyo.  Arroyo is 35-14 against the money line in home games in the second half of the season since 1997 and 6-1 against the money line in his last 7 home starts.  The Reds return home after a 6-game road trip tonight and we expect that to put get them back to their winning ways.  Take the Reds showing extraordinary value in the home dog role.

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GINA

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels have won six of their last seven games at home and will send Joe Saunders to the hill. The lefty is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts and the Angels have won Saunders' last four starts against the Orioles. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings versus the Angels and has lost ten of the last 14 games played at Angel Stadium

Los Angeles Angels -210

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Wunderdog

Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +115

Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.


Game: Boston at Kansas City
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -105

The A’s are were on a 2-15 run when they were swept by the BoSox this weekend. Any team playing that bad is bound to make anyone look good. They also put the broom on Seattle - another team playing about as bad as it gets. Those two series sandwich a 1-8 run and now the Sox turn to the road where they have not fared well all season. Clay Bucholz looked like he was going to make a huge impact for the Sox after pitching a no-hitter last September and baffling AL hitters in his four starts. This season has been completely lost. He started poorly and has not recovered, and it has to be in his head now. He is pitching to a nearly six ERA - something he has never faced in his life. The Royals send Gil Meche to the mound who is earning the big salary the Royals spent especially lately, posting a 1.33 ERA in his last three. We'll back the Royals at home in this one.


Game: Minnesota at Seattle
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -120

No one would believe that the Twins would be sitting in first place at this stage of the season after Santana departed for the Mets and Liriano sat out most of this season with recurring injuries, but here they are on top. The Twins are an amazing 30-9 outside a five game losing streak and are playing as well as anyone. The Mariners made a solid run last year, added Eric Bedard to put them over the top and suddenly they are the worst team in the AL. The losing on the road has been continuous and has now extended to home where they have dropped seven of eight. The Mariners are also 1-6 in Miguel Batista's last 22 starts, so the answer doesn't lie with a pitcher that has pitched to a 6.43 ERA on the season especially against a hot Twins’ team. The Twins take the opener

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LT Profits

Cleveland Indians +115

With all due respect to Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays, we simply cannot pass up Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians as an underdog in this spot.

Lee is the current favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award, sitting at 14-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 146.2 innings. He tossed six scoreless innings while allowing only five hits in his first start vs. Tampa Bay this year, and he is facing a Rays lineup here that is batting a woeful .210 vs. left-handed pitching the last 10 games.

Now granted Garza has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. However, it should be pointed out that the two non-quality efforts both came within his last four starts, suggesting that he is starting to wear down a bit. Even more importantly, the worst of those efforts came vs. these Indians in Cleveland, where he was torched for seven earned runs and 11 hits in just five innings.

While we do expect an improved effort from Garza at home tonight, we will still go with the bona fide Cy Young favorite as a dog.

Pick: Indians +115


Boston Red Sox -110

Now, we concede that the Kansas City Royals have the edge in starting pitching over the Boston Red Sox tonight, but face it, this is still the Red Sox vs. the Royals and we feel compelled to play Boston at this seemingly bargain price.

Besides, Gil Meche has been somewhat of a disappointment for Kansas City, sitting at just 9-9 with a 4.16 ERA. He has just 106 strikeouts in 140.2 innings while at the same time being a fly ball pitcher, a dangerous combination vs. a powerful Red Sox lineup. Also, do not forget that the Royals have not had much of a home field advantage, going just 26-30 in their own stadium, so Red Sox Nation should be well represented in the stands.

Now Clay Buchholz has not shown much this season for Boston, but remember he is still the same pitcher that tossed a no-hitter last year, so it is not as if he has no ability. Also, the Royals are batting just .244 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games as opposed to a whopping .344 vs. lefties, and the Kansas City lineup has never faced Buchholz before.

Aside from the starters, the Red Sox are better in every other phase of the game and they get the call at this cheap number.

Pick: Red Sox -110

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Tony Karpinski

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals    
Play: Kansas City Royals   
 
Kansas City has won 6 of their last 7 games and they are 5-0 in the last 5 starts made by Gil Meche. The Royals are 6-2 their last 8 home games vs. the Red Sox. Boston is 5-11 their last 16 games when playing Game 1 of a series and they are 1-7 in the last 8 road starts made by Clay Buchholz. The Red Sox are 0-4 with Buchholz as road favorites and they are 4-8 their last 12 games vs. righty starters. The RedSox struggle on the road and I expect the Royals to come up big at home. Play on the KC ROYALS

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John Ryan

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-3 making 34.5 units for an incredible 93% since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 that is a below average hitting team batting <=.265 and is now facing a good AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=4.20 and in the second half of the season. This is a rare system that occurs an average of about 4 times per season. This system is a perfect 2-0 this season and when combined with the AiS grading makes for an exceptional opportunity. The fact that the line is high prohibits the grading from exceeding a 5* amount. Here is a second system that has gone 50-11 making 33.6 units since 1997. Play against all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher that is a very bad AL offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs/game and is facing a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.33 and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. Oakland is in a very bad spot noting they are 3-17 (-16.3 Units) against the money line versus good fielding teams that are averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season this season. Halladay must be boxed on this play as well.

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