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Mike Handzelek Rare O/U Game Of The Month

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Pick: Under     

We're on the Under here as these teams will feel the high anxiety of a pennant race with their bats as sole possession of first place takes center stage this afternoon. We expect a tight hard fought battle with little runs on the board. The Phils with Moyer are 7-1 Under & 6-0 Under when Moyer is up against a winning team. The Phillies have been closing out Game 3's of a series going 7-1 Under. When Moyer hits the road with the total 9.0 to 10.5, he's 7-2 Under. The Mets as a home favorite of -110 to -150 are 7-0-1 Under. Perez has taken the hill the last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150 and has gone a perfect 5-0 Under! Our Thunder is all on the Under for our Rare O/U Game Of The Month.
   

Strongest Play On The Board with Strong 8-0

Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs     

We're on the Cubs & Mexico City in Mex. Baseball. The Cubs have been beat up like a rag doll the L10 games by Florida. Expect the tide to turn here with Zambrano hurlin' BB's! The Cubs have hit LHP @ home for an amazing .325 average. The L10 games, Fla. comes in @ .231 vs. righties. Fla. has been a money-burning 14-37 when a dog in this +200 price range. The Marlins are 1-4 Thursdays & Olsen is also 1-4 as a road dog. Olsen is 0-5 when his opponent is off allowing 5+ runs. The Cubbies are a solid 10-2 @ home vs. winning teams & 40-11 @ home vs. teams with a losing road record. After allowing 5+ runs, Chicago is 36-16. Zambrano is king as a favorite in this -200 price range going 9-0. Carlos is 12-1 as an overall favorite & 5-0 starting off Game 1's. We're singin' Ha-de-ha-de-ho Sweet home Chicago!

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Brian Hansen

Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are in too expensive of a price range to use as a pay play but we are recommending them tonight as Thursday's Member Pick. Why? Because even in the price range their in they're worth considering a small play on! Chicago is an amazing 37-12 at home this season. They're hosting a Marlins team that is sub-.500 on the road. This is why, even though Florida has won ten straight against the Cubs we don't foresee that streak continuing here! Want more? The return of Alfonso Soriano is huge for the Cubs. He came back last night after a long stint on the disabled list and he will inch closer to 100% with each game he gets under his belt! Carlos Zambrano is 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA this season. The Big Z is also 3-1 with a 2.54 in seven career starts against the Marlins. He'll be taking on a Marlins club that is coming off of a disappointing 3-3 home-stand where they averaged less than four runs per game! Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are mired in bad slumps and that doesn't bode well for tonight's game. This is especially true with southpaw Scott Olsen on the mound for the Marlins. Even though he is 2-0 in his last five starts he's compiled a 4.78 ERA in those outings and the Cubs offense is lethal at Wrigley Field. That said, the Cubs should win this one in a ROUT!

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EZWINNERS

MLB
1 STAR: (903) WASHINGTON (+$124) over San Francisco
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $124)

1 STAR: (910) ST. LOUIS (+$115) over Milwaukee
(Listing Wellemeyer only)
(Risking $100 to win $115)


CFL

3 STAR: (404) WINNIPEG (+6.5) over Calgary
(Risking $330 to win $300)

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Chris James Sports

Mets/Phillies Under 9.5

This afternoon is the final game of a 3 game set between the Mets and Phillies and it's also a battle for the first place spot in the National League East. The first two games have been full of excitement but look for this afternoon's game to be a very well pitched, slow-paced game. The Phillies send veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer to the mound who is 9-6 with a 3.9 ERA on the year. In his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA. So far in 08' Moyer is 1-0 against the Mets with a 3.37 ERA and he is 7-4 in his career vs the Mets. Moyer has been a cash cow for the under going 7-1 in his last 8 starts. The Under is 9-2 in his last 11 starts as an underdog, 5-1 in his last 6 starts with the total set between 9-10.5 and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. Moyer doesn't over power anyone, but strategically hits the corners and makes it tough for hitters to get extra base hits and keeps a lot of balls on the ground! The Mets send Oliver Perez to the mound who is 6-6 with a 4.36 ERA on the year. He has performed much better recently though with a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. Perez has pitched four times against the Phillies this year but only getting one win. However, that isn't because of his pitching, he just hasn't gotten any run support. He currently has pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings against the Phillies this year and looks to extend that today. He has only given up 11 singles, no extra base hits, those 18 1/3 innings pitched this year. Overall, the Under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. Head to Head match-ups have gone under 4-0 in Moyer's last 4 road starts vs. the Mets, 6-1 in his last 7 overall starts vs. the Mets, and 5-1 in Perez's last 6 starts vs the Phillies. Chris James Free Play Selection today is on the Mets/Phillies to finish under the posted total!

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LT Profits

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Under 9.5

Oliver Perez of the New York Mets has simply owned the Philadelphia Phillies recently while the ageless Jamie Moyer has turned back the clock and is in excellent form. Expect both offenses to struggle in this very early matinee.

Perez has faced the Phillies three times this season, and incredibly, he has yet to allow a run against them, tossing 18.1 scoreless innings while allowing just 11 hits and recording 15 strikeouts. This makes six straight times that Perez has held Philadelphia to three earned runs or less going back to last year. He is also in sizzling current form, allowing two earned runs or less in his last four starts overall, with just 15 hits allowed and 27 strikeouts in 26 innings.

All that Moyer has done is allow three runs or less in eight consecutive starts. In a year where Kyle Kendrick has struggled and Brett Myers has spent part of the season in the minors, it is the steady Moyer that has been the second best pitcher on the staff after ace Cole Hamels. Moyer is also a perfect three for three in Quality Starts vs. these Mets this season, and he is an amazing seven for seven in Quality Starts against them since the start of last year.

Throw in the normal lethargy that come with these 12 Noon starts, and runs should be hard to come by today.

Pick: Phillies, Mets Under 9.5


Tampa Bay Rays -120

Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays has pitched as well as any pitcher in the American League over the last month or so except for one bad start in Cleveland, and with the Rays winning both of their series since the All-Star break, they get the call as small road chalk in this series opener vs. the Kansas City Royals.

The Rays certainly stumbled into the break, losing seven straight games including getting swept by the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Indians. However, the break appears to have done them good, as they have taken two out of three games from both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics. Meanwhile, the Royals were just swept here at home by the Detroit Tigers.

Now Garza has been brilliant, and he is coming off of an outing vs. the Blue Jays where he tossed 7.2 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and walked nobody. This marked his seventh Quality Start in the last eight starts, and it was also the fourth time in seven starts that he allowed one run or less, and the second time in five starts that he allowed two hits or less. He also posted a Quality Start in his only outing vs. the Royals this year.

Gil Meche was supposed to be the ace of the Kansas City Staff, so he must be considered a disappointment at 7-9 with a 4.48 ERA. Most disturbing is the fact that he has been even worse here at home, where he owns a poor 5.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The last time he faced the Rays here, he was lit up for six earned runs and nine baserunners in six innings.

Finally, if some relief is needed, the Rays also have the superior bullpen, ranking sixth in the majors with a collective 3.39 ERA while the Kansas City pen is sputtering along with a 4.20 ERA. This seems like a reasonable price, all things considered.

Pick: Rays -120

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Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ NY Mets Under 9.5

The Under is 12-5-1 in Phillies last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-2 in Moyers last 11 starts as an underdog, while the Under is 9-1-2 in Mets last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and  5-1 in Perezs last 6 starts as a favorite. Jamie Moyer is having a good year for the Phills with a 3.96 ERA overall, Including a 3.12 ERA on the road and a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. HIs road starts average just 7.9 rpg, including just 5.8 rpg in his last 5 away from home, while his last 8 overall have averaged just 6.3 rpg. Jamie has always pitched well vs the Mets with a 2.89 ERA in 10 career starts vs them, with those games averaging 7.3 rpg and only 2 of those games scoring more than 9 runs. Oliver Perez has been on a roll of late, posting a 1.39 ERA in his last 4 starts, with those games averaging just 5.5 rpg. Oliver does have a 4.44 ERA at home overall, but just a 2.88 ERA in his last 4 starts at home, with those games averaging 6.5 rpg. Oliver has a 3.39 ERA in his career vs the Phills and in 3 starts this year vs them he has yet to allow a run to them in 18.1 innings of work. Both offense have been good of late as the Phils have scored 4.7 rpg in their last 9, while the Mets have put up 5.2 rpg in their last 10 games, but I really feel that today will be all about the pitching and if the teams couldn't put more than 9 runs on the board with the kind of pitching that was on the mound last night, then I don't see them doing it today vs these two starters. A pitchers duel in NY today.

Toronto -137 over BALTIMORE

The Blue Jays are 28-11 in Halladays last 39 starts during game 3 of a series and 17-4 in Halladays last 21 starts vs. Orioles, while the Orioles are 7-20 in their last 27 during game 3 of a series and  1-8 in Cabreras last 9 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Roy Halladay has simply owned the Orioles in his career going 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA, including a 7-2 mark with a 3.46 ERA at Camden Yards. Roy is also 5-0 in his last 7 starts vs them, with a 2.67 ERA. Daniel Cabrera is 3-0 at home this year, but he has been living dangerously as he owns a 5.22 ERA in his home starts. That's thanks to the Orioles scoring over 6 rpg for him at home, but it won't happen today vs Mr. Halladay. The Orioles have scored just 2.9 rpg off Roy in his last 7 starts vs them, plus they score just 3.9 rpg in day games this year and they hit just .254 and score 4.8 rpg vs righty starters on the year and they average just 3.4 rpg in Daniel's day starts. Daniel is 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 15 starts vs the Jays, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. The Jays offense has sputtered for much of the year, but they have come on lately, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 9 games. They have also averaged 4.9 rpg in day games and 6.1 rpg in Roy's last 9 starts vs them. These teams must first finish yesterday's suspended game before playing this one, but no matter what happens in that one I expect Roy to have another dominant performance vs the O's and walk away with his 17th win vs them.

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Terron Chapman

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals   

The Washington Nationals have yet to earn a win against the Giants this season and are on the verge of getting swept for the second time at the hands of the G-men when the two conclude their three game set this afternoon. The Nats hope Tim Redding give another solid performance and the bullpen can hold a lead as he gets the start in the day game.

Tim Redding has been who the Nats call on after a loss. They are 10-2 in games he starts after a loss in their previous game. Redding has yet to lose when taking the mound under the sun going 2-0 this season with a 3.91 ERA. He has been the Nats most productive pitcher and gives them the best chance of stopping the streak. The Nats are 15-6 when Redding takes the hill overall including 6-3 on the road. He is coming off a disappointing outing against the Braves but expect him to rebound with a solid performance this afternoon.

Matt Cain will try to rebound as well from another poor performance. The right hander walked five in his last outing giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs in six innings of a 9-1 home loss to the Brewers. He fell to 5-8 on the season with the Giants just 7-14 in games he starts this year. To make matters worse he is 0-4 in day game starts with a 5.40 ERA. The Giants are 0-8 in day games when he takes the hill. The Giants are just 1-6 in Cain's last 7 home starts.

Even though the Nats came up short last night the one positive we can take away from the loss is the offense showed signs of life. The return of Ryan Zimmerman who knocked in 3 hits last night, gives their lineup some much needed help. The Giants are 4-12 in Cains last 16 home starts with chalk of -110 to -150.Play on the Washington Nationals for 1 unit.

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Tony Karpinski

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City Royals   

Meche pitched lights out in his last outing holding the offensive minded Tigers to 1 run on 2 Hits over 6.1 thirds . The D' Rays hand the ball to Matt Garza who has pitched well as his (8-5) record would attest .His last outing was a good one as he beat Toronto (6-4) giving up only 2 hits over 7.2 thirds Innings . His problem this year has come on the road though and that exactly where he'll find himself today .His record is just (2-4) .He has given up 11 Home Runs in 6 games to go along with 33 Runs. TB has dropped 7 in a row on the road and we'll back the ROYALS on Thursday night. 

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ER Sports

Playmaker Mets/Phillies Under

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Rocketman

Toronto @ Baltimore
Play: Toronto -135

Toronto bullpen has a 3.13 ERA overall this year and a 3.26 ERA on the road this season. Halladay has a 2.89 ERA in all games this year, 2.94 ERA in all starts this year, 2.85 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Cabrera is 0-1 with a 6.32 ERA his last 3 starts. Halladay is 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA overall vs Baltimore since 1997. We'll play Toronto for 3 units today!

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BobbyClarkeSports

Phillies - Wager $300 to win $390

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Ben Burns BLUE CHIP Total *9-2 L11 MLB Totals (Day Game)

I'm playing on the Giants and Nationals to finish UNDER the total.

The first two games of this series have both managed to slip above the number. However, I'm expecting to see a pitcher's duel this afternoon. In addition to having a pair of solid starters on the mound, let's remember that these are two of the four lowest-scoring teams in the league, along with San Diego and Seattle. Even with the results of the first two games, the UNDER remains a profitable 7-3-1 the last 11 series meetings. Cain goes for Giants and he's seen five of his last eight starts stay below the number, allowing three earned runs or less in six of those. He's gone a minimum of six complete innings in each of his last four starts (average of 6 3/4) and has allowed three earned runs or less in three of those starts, including 0 earned runs in two of those. Cain has dominated the Nationals the last few times he has faced them, recording a 1.40 ERA by allowing just three combined runs in 19 1/3 innings. All three of those games stayed below the total with scores of 3-2, 5-0 and 4-1. Redding was roughed up at Atlanta last time out. However, in fairness to him, let's keep in mind that it was his first loss since May 9th. Overall, he was 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last defeat. In his previous start, he shutout the Astros for six scoreless innings, recording six K's without issuing a walk. In his start before that, he limited the Reds to one run through six complete innings, eventually settling for a no-decision in a game that finished with a final score of 3-2. He hasn't faced the Giants yet this season. He did face them twice last year though. Both games fell below the total, including one vs. Cain, finishing with scores of 3-2 and 5-0. Despite yesterday's result, the Nationals have still seen the UNDER go 38-25 in 63 games against right-handed starters this season. They've also seen the UNDER go 18-11-1 in 30 games played during the afternoon. Look for those numbers to improve as this afternoon's final combined score stays beneath the number once again. *Blue Chip

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Pupsnchalk Sports

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals   

The Washington Nationals have yet to earn a win against the Giants this season and are on the verge of getting swept for the second time at the hands of the G-men when the two conclude their three game set this afternoon. The Nats hope Tim Redding give another solid performance and the bullpen can hold a lead as he gets the start in the day game.

Tim Redding has been who the Nats call on after a loss. They are 10-2 in games he starts after a loss in their previous game. Redding has yet to lose when taking the mound under the sun going 2-0 this season with a 3.91 ERA. He has been the Nats most productive pitcher and gives them the best chance of stopping the streak. The Nats are 15-6 when Redding takes the hill overall including 6-3 on the road. He is coming off a disappointing outing against the Braves but expect him to rebound with a solid performance this afternoon.

Matt Cain will try to rebound as well from another poor performance. The right hander walked five in his last outing giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs in six innings of a 9-1 home loss to the Brewers. He fell to 5-8 on the season with the Giants just 7-14 in games he starts this year. To make matters worse he is 0-4 in day game starts with a 5.40 ERA. The Giants are 0-8 in day games when he takes the hill. The Giants are just 1-6 in Cain's last 7 home starts.

Even though the Nats came up short last night the one positive we can take away from the loss is the offense showed signs of life. The return of Ryan Zimmerman who knocked in 3 hits last night, gives their lineup some much needed help. The Giants are 4-12 in Cains last 16 home starts with chalk of -110 to -150.Play on the Washington Nationals for 1 unit.

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WUNDERDOG

MLB

Washington at San Francisco
2 units on San Francisco -1.5 runs +162

The road woes continue for the Nationals as they have now gone 3-12 over their last 15 away from Washington. The Giants continue their mastery over the Nats as they have now won all six games played this season, outscoring them 37-13 in the process. Tim Redding has had the fortune of five runs or more in 16 of his starts while the Nats have only produced five runs or more 37 times the entire season, so his record is a bit misleading. The Giants? Tim Cain has pitched better of late, allowing zero runs in two of his last four starts. We look for the Giants to come away with another convincing win here for the sweep


WNBA

Chicago at San Antonio
2 units on Chicago +9

If you look at the road-loss column for the Sky, it doesn't offer much as they have been just 2-9 on the season, matching a league-low two road wins with lowly Atlanta. What it doesn't say is this team is not getting blown out as they have dropped just two of the 11 by double-digits and none in their last six games. San Antonio has been one of the best teams in the WNBA all season and has had similar results at home where they stand 11-2. After starting the home schedule with three double-digit wins in their first four games, they have not beaten anyone by 10+ since as their largest home margin has been just eight points. This looks like a considerable overlay on the part of the odds-makers and we'll scoop up the value and take the Sky and the bundle of points here.


Phoenix at Sacramento
2 units on OVER 182

Phoenix seems to keep raising the bar in terms of scoring and getting up and down the court, but the problem is they don't compliment it by playing any defense at all. They have allowed over 93 points a game in their last nine. The Mercury is also scoring over 100 a game in their last three, but overall this may be a fun team to watch, but the results don't match the success on the offensive end. Less than two weeks ago, these teams put up over 200 points and we see a similar result in this one, so OVER gets the call here.


Los Angeles at Connecticut
2 units on Los Angeles +5.5

The Connecticut Sun have fallen apart. They once looked like the best team in the WNBA jumping out to an 8-1 start, but have been anything but since. The Sun is just 6-9 over their last 15 games and hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since beating Detroit 10 games ago. The Spark is the only WNBA team playing .500 or better on the road and is coming off a confidence-boosting win at Detroit. The Sun is just not the team the record would indicate. The Spark has a chance to win this one, so the points look like they offer a lot of value and we'll back them here     

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ANTONWINS

3 unit MLB play Philadelphia +120

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Marco D'Angelo

SDP (-106) vs PIT

Analysis: Sometimes in Sports Betting you just have to trust your reads and instincts. I have made a very comfortable living trusting my reads whether it be at a Poker Table or in a Sports Book. The line on tonight's Pittsburgh/ San Diego Game is a trap. Vegas wants you to bet Pittsburgh as they are begging for the action. Pittsburgh returns home off the sweep of Houston and is made just a -110 favorite? C'Mon what's up with that? When I see something like this I know that I will be on the right side an average of 7 of out of every 10 times I see this situation. I have Bet San Diego personally and I highly advise you do the same. TAKE SAN DIEGO  as  MARCO'S VEGAS TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

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Tony George

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Royals / Devil Rays UNDER 8.5

Neither one of these teamsd in the last 10 games have broken .217 as team with a batting average against right handers. Detroit just hammered KC in KC, a series I went to, and KC's bats are non exsistent. With Meche on the hill for KC, and Garza on the hill for the Rays, both solid pitchers, I expect a tight game here and low scoring as 2 pitchers who are solid should go 6 innings and with no bats for either team right now a 3-2 type ballgame is a strong possibility.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

SFG (-143) vs WAS

GIANTS By rallying for three runs in the bottom of the eighth last night the Giants were able to overcome a 4-3 deficit and knock off the Nationals 6-4. They also won Tuesdays game 6-3 and today, they are now going for the sweep! This really should come as no surprise as the Giants, despite their overall struggles this season, have had absolutely no problems with the Nationals this year! San Francisco is now a perfect 6-0 against Washington this season and the wins have often featured domination! Thats why the Giants have outscored the Nationals 37-13 in the six games. Thats an average win of 6-2 and with Matt Cain on the bump for the Giants this afternoon, the domination should absolutely continue! San Francisco is simply loaded with confidence against the Nationals and their starting pitcher, Cain, also has plenty of reason to be confident about todays game too! The Giants have lost Cains last three starts but hes posted a respectable 3.79 ERA while striking out 19 in 19 innings. Cain already defeated the Nationals earlier this season on June 9th and hes got a solid 3.00 ERA in his five career starts against Washington. What has been most impressive about Cain in his young career is his ability to dominate at home. He may not have the victories to show for it but the right-hander has a stellar .223 BAA at home and an impressive 3.49 ERA in his career starts at AT & T Park. Also note that opponents are hitting just .214 against Cain in his career daytime outings. Hes matched up with Tim Redding of the Nationals and the right-hander is on the fade now after a surprisingly strong start to the season. Redding is coming off of a loss at Atlanta where he was hammered for six runs in just four innings! Even though it was Reddings first loss in quite some time, his recent outings have shown some return to normalcy after his impressive numbers early this season. One area was his numbers are certainly not impressive is against the Giants. Versus San Francisco, Redding is 0-4 with a 6.49 ERA in 7 games (5 starts). Look for more struggles this afternoon as Redding has given up 29 hits in his last 21 innings over his last four starts. Averaging only about five innings per start is not a good sign for the Nationals either as that means that their subpar bullpen will be exposed here. This one is all Giants and thats why this play has been elevated to GOY status!


BAL / TOR Under 8

Some of this analysis was presented with yesterdays play as it was a total we got somewhat burned on. Yesterdays game was suspended with a 2-1 score as they were heading to the bottom of the 6th inning. As noted in yesterdays analysis: A low total was posted on this game and many will be jumping on the over because of the recent results for these two clubs. However, the key here is the pitching match-up as the old adage is true that good pitching stops good hitting. The Orioles have scored 40 runs in their 6 games since the All Star Break. All but one of those has gone over the total. As for the Blue Jays, they have scored 26 runs in their last 4 games and all four games went over the total. However, all this slugfest activity comes to an end on Thursday afternoon courtesy of Roy Halladay of the Jays and Daniel Cabrera of the Orioles. Halladay has defeated the Orioles seven straight times and, overall, the Jays ace is 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA in his 23 career games against Baltimore. Halladay is coming off of a loss in his most recent start but it was his first defeat since mid-June. It was really one pitch, Evan Longorias grand slam, that cost him the game. That said, look for him to bounce back and come up with another strong effort on Thursday afternoon. The key to the Under in this match-up is that Halladay will be matched by his counterpart, Cabrera, pitch for pitch today. The Orioles Cabrera is coming off of a rough start versus the Tigers in his most recent outing but note that he was simply done in by a tough first inning. That rough start came at Camden Yards but in his prior home start he pitched a complete game against the Royals and got the win as he allowed just two earned runs in a very impressive home outing! Cabrera is undefeated at home in his eight starts at Camden Yards this season and we expect more domination this afternoon. With the bats finally quieted in this series, todays Game Four stays well UNDER the total thanks to a pitchers duel between Halladay and Cabrera, two very capable workhorses.

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Brian Smith

Tampa Bay -113 - 2 units

Florida +178 - 1 unit

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